✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY DATE R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
31 AUG 2015 382
378
374
372
370
368
366
362
358
CRUDE OIL
20 JUL 2015 4018 3945
3872
3843
3799
3770
3726
3653
3580
GOLD
05 AUG 2015 2704 26863 0
26686
26606
26509
26429
26332
26155
25978
LEAD
31 JUL 2015
118
116
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
NATURAL GAS
28 JUL 2015
197
191
185
181
179
175
173
167
161
NICKEL
31 JUL 2015
849
831
813
801
795
783
777
759
741
SILVER
03 JUL 2015 3817 37405 9
36631
36298
35857
35524
35083
34309
33535
129
128
127
126
125
124
123
ALUMINIUM COPPER
ZINC
31 JUL 2015
31 JUL 2015
13 1
130
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
31 JUL 2015
115
112
109
106
104
103
100
97
95
COPPER
31 AUG 2015
406
393
380
375
367
362
354
341
328
20 JUL 2015 4371
4192
4013
3913
3834
3734
3655
3476
3297
GOLD
05 AUG 2015 28540 27913
27286
26906
26659
26279
26032
25405
24778
LEAD
31 JUL 2015
121
118
115
113
112
110
109
106
103
NATURAL GAS
28 JUL 2015
210
199
188
182
177
171
166
155
144
NICKEL
31 JUL 2015
905
870
835
812
800
777
765
730
695
SILVER
03 JUL 2015 40545 39061
37577
36771
36093
35287
34609
33125
31641
CRUDE OIL
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20 AUG 2015
601
596
591
588
586
583
581
576
571
SYBEANIDR
20 AUG 2015
3630
3580
3530
3506
3480
3456
3430
3380
3330
RMSEED
20 JUL 2015
4287
4242
4197
4178
4152
4133
4107
4062
4017
JEERAUNJHA
20 JUL 2015
18416 17741
17066
16783
16391 16108 15716 15041
14366
CHANA
20 JUL 2015
4364
4299
4234
4205
4169
4140
4104
4039
3974
CASTORSEED
20 JUL 2015
4166
4122
4078
4057
4034
4013
3990
3946
3902
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20 AUG 2015
625
611
597
591
583
577
569
555
541
SYBEANIDR
20 AUG 2015
3806
3694
3582
3532
3470
3420
3358
3246
3134
RMSEED
20 JUL 2015
4697
4498
4299
4229
4100
4030
3901
3702
3503
JEERAUNJHA
20 JUL 2015
19723 18558
17393
16946
16228 15781 15063 13898
12733
CHANA
20 JUL 2015
4999
4722
4445
4311
4168
4034
3891
3614
3337
CASTORSEED
20 JUL 2015
4408
4273
4138
4087
4003
3952
3868
3733
3598
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ China China’s factory activity showed some signs of stabilizing in June but still contracted for the fourth straight month, according to a preliminary private survey, suggesting more stimulus measures may be needed to support the world’s second-largest economy. The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managerial Index (PMI) edged up to 49.6, a three-month high, from 49.2, but remained below the 50 mark which separates contraction from expansion. New orders returned to positive territory at 50.3 and new export orders fell at a much slower pace, but companies stepped up layoffs, shedding jobs at the fastest pace in over six years, a trend which is sure to alarm Beijing. Factories were also forced to cut prices for their products more deeply, pressuring profit margins.
Despite a flurry of stimulus and easing measures over the past year, economic growth slowed to a six-year low of 7 percent in the first quarter and analysts believe further momentum was lost in April-June. Sluggish demand at home and abroad has left many factories, particularly in heavy industries, laden with overcapacity.
The PMI reading follows small signs of recovering demand, reflected in other private surveys and in public statements by officials, but China is still struggling to get monetary easing to translate into investment in growth. Part of the problem is that central bank moves to add liquidity into the system are being absorbed by a stock market rally that began in November, and now by the bond market, which is being force-fed a massive plate of municipal bonds being issued as part of a debt swap programmed.
“Real interest rates are double digits, 11 or 12 percent. This is the real issue for the economy. You can cut nominal rates to zero and you are still seeing real rates around 5 percent. The profit margin is only around 3-4 percent,” said Zhou Hao, economist at ANZ Bank in Shanghai. “We are still seeking new engines for the economy. Basically we need to deleverage first,” he said, adding that the recent stock market rally was being used by many executives to retire outstanding debt.
� ECB Meeting European Central Bank chiefs will discuss whether to extend Greece's funding lifeline again after the meeting of euro zone leaders on Monday, officials said. With nervous Greek savers and firms withdrawing billions of euros in cash from accounts, the country's banks are almost entirely dependant on central bank funding to avoid collapse and potentially dragging down the country with them. After hiking emergency credit for Greek lenders to about 86 billion euros last week, the ECB agreed to a further 2 billion euros of such Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) on Monday, people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. This won breathing space for Athens, allowing teetering banks to stay open as Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sought to clinch a deal with euro zone backers at a meeting in Brussels.Austria's central bank chief Ewald Nowotny later said the Governing Council, which is made up of central bank chiefs from around the euro zone and the ECB's executive, would talk again to discuss the outcome of the leaders' summit. This was confirmed by other people familiar with the matter.
� US GDP The US economy contracted slightly in the first quarter as it struggled with bad weather, a strong dollar, spending cuts in the energy sector and disruptions at West Coast ports.There are signs, however, that growth is accelerating in the second quarter as the temporary drag from unusually heavy snowfalls and the ports dispute fade. Retailers reported strong sales in May and employers stepped up hiring. Housing is also firming. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the January-March quarter instead of the 0.7 percent pace of contraction it reported last month. A fairly stronger pace of consumer spending than previously estimated accounted for much of the upward revision. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two thirds of US economic activity, was revised up to 2.1 percent growth pace from the 1.8 percent rate reported last month. With personal savings increasing at a robust USD 720.2 billion pace, consumer spending could accelerate in the second quarter. While export growth was revised higher, that was offset by an upward revision to imports, leaving a still-large deficit that subtracted almost 2 percentage points from GDP. The GDP revision was in line with economists' expectations.
The economy expanded at a 2.2 percent rate in the fourth quarter. But the first-quarter slump in output likely is not a true reflection of the economy's health. Economists, including those at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, say a problem with the model the government uses to smooth the data for seasonal fluctuations also contributed to depressing the GDP number. The value of inventory accumulated in the first quarter was revised up to an increase of USD 99.5
billion from the USD 95 billion rise reported last month. That meant inventories contributed 0.45 percentage point to GDP instead of the previously reported 0.33 percentage point. Inventories could be a drag on second-quarter GDP. After-tax corporate profits were a bit weaker in the first quarter than previously thought. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments were revised to show a 8.8 percent decline instead of the 8.7 percent drop reported last month.
✍ BULLION ✍ Gold Gold prices gained in Asia on Friday as events surrounding Greece's debt talks look increasingly close to collapse, though meetings are seen through the weekend. Talks between Greece and its creditors remained inconclusive, as discussions continued over the latest proposed reforms from Greece’s creditors and Greece’s counter-proposal.Greece's Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, told European Union Leaders Thursday in Brussels that any deal with creditors "must be viable and have adequate funding" a Greek official told journalists.Tsipras spoke during the Leaders' dinner where the Greek issue was discussed and according to the official some leaders were "more favorable and some more harsh." Nonetheless, Tsipras expressed his optimism that a deal could be reached by the end of the week.The Greek premier said that his government presented adequate and credible proposals in line with creditors' demands and that "Greece does not need more austerity but a growth agenda, investments and structural reforms." On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for August delivery rose 0.18% to $1,173.90 a troy ounce. Gold is viewed as a safe-haven for investors in periods of severe economic instability.Elsewhere, initial jobless claims remained near historic lows even as the level increased by 3,000 last week to 271,000. More critically, the four-week average fell by 3,250 to 273,750 moving lower from monthly averages throughout the spring. While Gold futures retreated in the domestic market on Thursday in the midst of strong US consumption data and a lack of progress in Greek Debt negotiations. the US Department of Commerce said consumer spending surged in May by 0.9 per cent, the highest monthly gain in nearly six years and above expectations for a 0.7 per cent rise. Bolstered by a 0.5 per cent spike in personal income, the surge reflects an increase in consumer spending in auto purchases and retail goods. Meanwhile, the two sides in longstanding Greek Debt negotiations concluded talks without reaching a deal. During the emergency two-day meeting, both sides presented revised proposals that could unlock critical stimulus aid to Greece thought to be necessary in order to avoid bankruptcy. Gold may bounce back friday as worries over Greece spur safe haven demand for the precious metal. At the MCX, Gold futures for August 2015 contract closed at Rs 26,485 per 10 gram, down by 0.18 per cent after opening
at Rs 26,570, against the previous closing price of Rs 26,533. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 26,460 till the closing
✍ ENERGY ✍ Natural gas Natural gas trimmed gains on Thursday, despite data showing that U.S. natural gas supplies rose less than expected last week.Natural gas for delivery in August rose 2.4 cents, or 0.88%, on the New York Mercantile Exchange to trade at $2.806 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning hours. Prices were at around $2.846 prior to the release of the supply data.A day earlier, natural gas prices fell to $2.733, the lowest level since June 9, before turning higher to end at $2.782, up 3.6 cents, or 1.31%. Futures were likely to find support at $2.733, the low from June 25, and resistance at $2.905, the high from June 18. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that Natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended June 19 rose by 75 billion cubic feet, compared to expectations for an increase of 77 billion and following a build of 89 billion cubic feet in the preceding week. Supplies rose by 110 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change is an increase of 86 billion cubic feet.Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.508 trillion cubic feet as of last week. Stocks were 695 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 35 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 2.473 trillion cubic feet for this time of year. Updated weather forecasting models called for higher-than-normal temperatures across most parts of the U.S. in the next three days. However, a cooler weather system from Canada was expected to push readings to near normal across much of Northeast and Midwest early next week.Demand for natural gas tends to fluctuate in the summer based on hot weather and air conditioning use. Natural gas accounts for about a quarter of U.S. electricity generation.Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for delivery in August shed 60 cents, or 1%, to trade at $59.67 a barrel, while heating oil for July delivery declined 0.79% to trade at $1.861 per gallon.
✍ Crude Oil Crude oil fell to one-week lows on Friday, as the U.S. dollar remained supported by the previous session's upbeat U.S. data and amid growing concerns over the outcome of Greek debt negotiations. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for August delivery hit $59.45 during European early afternoon hours, down 26 cents, or 0.41%. A day earlier, Nymex oil prices dropped 57 cents, or 0.95%, to end at $59.70. The dollar found support after data on Thursday showed that U.S. Personal spending rose by 0.9% in May, above expectations for a gain of 0.7%. The report also showed personal income rose by 0.5% in May, in line with forecasts and after rising 0.5% in April.In addition, the U.S.
Department of Labor said the number of individuals filling fir initial jobless benefits in the week ending June 20 increased by 3,000 to 271,000 from the previous week’s total of 268,000. Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to rise by 4,000 to 272,000 last week. Separately, energy traders have been paying close attention to gasoline stockpiles in recent weeks as the U.S. driving season entered its peak gasoline demand period.Total crude oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels last week to 463.0 million, compared to expectations for a drop of 2.1 million barrels to 465.8 million.Meanwhile, market participants continued to monitor the Greek debt situation after negotiations between Athens and its creditors broke down once again on Thursday.Time is running out for the Greek government to secure a deal to unlock bailout funds ahead of the looming deadline for a €1.6 billion repayment to the International Monetary Fund on June 30.If Greece misses the payment it risks going into default, which could trigger the country’s exit from the euro area.Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for August delivery inched down 5 cents, or 0.06%, to trade at $63.16 a barrel. On Thursday, London-traded Brent futures fell by 29 cents, or 0.46%, to settle at $63.20.The spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $3.71 a barrel.
✍ BASE METAL ✍ Copper Copper prices rose by 0.11 per cent on Friday after US consumer spending recorded its largest increase in nearly six years in May on strong demand for automobiles and other big-ticket items, further evidence that economic growth was accelerating in the second quarter which raised the demand outlook for the metal. The Commerce Department said consumer spending rose 0.9 percent last month, the biggest gain since August 2009, after a 0.1 percent rise in April. At the MCX, copper futures for June 2015 contract were trading at Rs.368.70 per 1 kg, up by 0.11 per cent, after opening at Rs. 369.30 against the previous closing price of Rs. 368.30. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 369.95 till the trading. (At 12.45 PM today). While Copper prices jumpeded in Asia on Tuesday as China PMI data from Market came in better than expected, raising hopes for a turn upwards in the economy. In China the June Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.6, better than May's final of 49.2 and the first without HSBC following the end of their distribution deal."The latest Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey provided a mixed bag of data in June," said Annabel Fiddes, Economist at Markit. "On the one hand, the sector shows signs of improvement as output stabilised amid a slight pick up in total new work, while purchasing activity also rose slightly over the month. On the other hand, manufacturers continued to cut their staff numbers, with the latest reduction the sharpest
in over six years. This suggests that companies have relatively muted growth expectations as demand conditions both at home and abroad remain relatively subdued. The data add to evidence that the sector has lost growth momentum in Q2 as a whole, and suggests that the authorities may step up their efforts to stimulate growth and job creation in the second half of the year."Sentiment improved further after household spending in Japan rose more-than-expected last month signaling improving sentiment in the region which raised the demand outlook for the metal. In a report, Statistics Bureau said that Japanese Household Spending rose to a seasonally adjusted 4.8 per cent, from -1.3 per cent in the preceding month.
✍ Lead Lead prices fell 0.26 per cent to Rs 113.15 per kg in futures trade Friday after participants reduced exposure amid a weak trend at the spot market on sluggish domestic demand. At the MCX, Lead futures, for the June 2015 contract, is trading at Rs 113.15 per kg, down by 0.26 per cent, after opening at Rs 113.45, against a previous close of Rs 113.45. It touched an intra-day low of Rs 112.90 till the trading. (At 1.40 PM today)Traders said besides subdued demand from battery-makers in the domestic spot market, profit-booking at current levels by speculators weighed on lead futures.
✍ Zinc Zinc futures fell by 0.46 per cent to Rs 128.95 per kg friday due to the surge in the zinc stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the weak demand for the commodity. LME zinc stocks rose by 2100 metric tonnes to 312825 metric tonnes as on June 25, 2015. Zinc futures for June 2015 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 128.95 per kg, down by 0.46 per cent after opening at Rs. 129.80 against the previous closing price of Rs. 129.55. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 128.80 till the trading. (At 4.00 PM today). Major refined zinc exporting countries are Canada, Australia and Rep. of Korea, while major refined zinc importing countries are China, USA and Germany.
✍ Nickel Nickel futures were trading tad lower in the domestic market on Monday as investors and speculators stuck to a cautious approach ahead of EU emergency talks to discuss Greece’s fate in the euro. The Mediterranean nation is in a race against time as it needs to strike a debt deal with its creditors before the June 30 loan repayment deadline expires. Greece is due to make a payment of 1.5 billion euro to the IMF before or on June 30, 2015. All eyes are on the emergency meet of EU on Monday where policymakers are expected to make a last ditch effort to help avert a messy Greek default. At the MCX, Nickel futures for June 2015 contract is trading at Rs 803.30 per 1 kg, down by 0.01 per cent after opening at Rs 806, against the previous closing price of Rs 803.40. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 803.30. (At 12:24 PM).
✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Monsoon Update But the government is likely to draw heavily from its warehouses this year if monsoon rains, critical for farm irrigation, turn out to be deficient, thereby fueling food inflation. India's weather office has cut this year's monsoon forecast to 88 percent of a long-term average, raising fears of the first drought in six years.Industry and government officials estimate this year's wheat output at about 90 million tonnes, nearly 5 percent lower than the 2014 harvest but still exceeding domestic demand of about 72 million tonnes.Since wheat is largely grown in India's central and northern plains, flour millers from southern states, hemmed in by the Indian Ocean, sometimes find it attractive to import high-protein grades from Australia.
✍ India’s wheat import deals Indian flour millers and global trading companies have sewn up deals to import 500,000 tonnes of premium Australianwheat since March, It is the biggest such purchases in more than a decade despite surplus stocks at home.Concerns that untimely rains in February and March would cut wheat output, especially of high-protein varieties used to make pizzas and pasta, first drove millers in India’s southern ports to place the orders. Attractive prices then prompted traders such as Cargill, Louis Dreyfus and Glencore to follow. The traders and millers could import a further 500,000 tonnes from France and Russia, where harvests are around the corner.The deals could push up benchmark prices that have already jumped on recent concerns about crop quality in the United States.There are strong chances French and Russian wheat will find their way to India because of attractive prices.Although rains and hailstorms wilted the Indian wheat crop, the world's second-biggest producer and consumer of the grain has large stockpiles accumulated after eight straight years of bumper harvests.
✍ Edible oil imports Edible oil imports may rise about 16 per cent to 13.5 million tonnes (mt) this year, ending October, due to cheaper shipments from Indonesia and lower domestic crushing, industry body Solvent Extractors Association .The country is estimated to have imported 11.6 mt of edible oil in the 2013-14 marketing year (November -October).Imports are likely to increase by almost two mt, taking advantage of cheaper shipments from Indonesia and Malaysia, which have imposed zero export duty on palm products to clear surplus stock.The high price of soyabean and lower realizations also led to lower crushing and lesser availability of edible oil in the market, resulting in higher imports of soybean oil and sunflower oil, he added. Mehta said that
stocks of imported edible oils at ports have built up. The inventory at present is more than the monthly requirement of about 1.6 mt.The country meets 60 per cent of its annual edible oil demand via imports. Much of the imports comprise palm oils.India imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia and a small quantity of crude soft oils, including soyabean oil, from Latin America.
� Chana Chana prices rose by one per cent to Rs 4,340 per quintal in futures trade on thursday as traders enlarged their holdings on account of good demand at the spot market.Besides, restricted arrivals in the market due to lower estimated output also increased the chana prices.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for August delivery rose by Rs 43, or one per cent, to Rs 4,340 per quintal, with an open interest of 1,35,770 lots.Similarly, chana for delivery in July was trading higher by Rs 38, or 0.91 per cent, to Rs 4,212 per quintal, with an open interest of 1,30,830 lots.The rise in chana prices at futures trade to rising demand at the spot market amid fall in supplies from the producing regions.
� Castorseed Castorseed prices rose by 0.25 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the rise in demand from consuming industries against restricted arrivals in domestic markets which in turn encouraged the investors to enlarge their holdings. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for November 2014 contract were trading at Rs. 3,996 per quintal tonnes, up by 0.25 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,978 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,986. Castor is a non-edible oilseed crop; basically a cash crop, with average 46 per cent oil recovery.
� Mustard seed Mustard seed prices closed higher by 0.39 per cent on Wednesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the commodity in the major markets. At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for July 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,082 per quintal, up by 0.39 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,070 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,066. India produces 5.5 million MT to7 million MT annually and about 0.15 million MT is retained for sowing and direct consumption as seed which leaves about 4.8-5.1 million MT for crushing and extracting oil.
� Jeera Jeera prices closed higher by 1.16 per cent on Wednesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the investors increased their holdings in the commodity in the midst limited arrivals from growing regions. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for July 2015 contract closed at Rs. 16,090 per quintal, up by 1.16 per cent, after opening at Rs. 15,920 against the previous closing price of Rs. 15,905. Sentiment improved further as a result of reduced domestic supplies in the physical markets and some export enquiries. Global output of Jeera is around 2.2 lakh MT per year, of which India produces about 1.5 lakh MT per year.
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