Commodity research report ways2capital 27 july 2015

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

107

106

105

104

103

102

101

100

99

31 AUG 2015 346

345

344

342

341

339

337

336

CRUDE OIL

20 JUL 2015 3170 3150

3130

3110

3080

3060

3040

3020

3000

GOLD

05 AUG 2015 2520 25100 0

2500

24900

24800

24700

24600

24500

24300

LEAD

31 JUL 2015

113

112

111

110

109

108

107

106

105

NATURAL GAS

28 JUL 2015

184

183

182

181

180

178

177

176

175

NICKEL

31 JUL 2015

745

740

735

735

730

725

720

715

710

SILVER

04 SEP 2015 3440 34300 0

34200

34100

34000

33900

33800

33700

33600

127

126

125

124

123

122

121

ALUMINIUM COPPER

ZINC

31 JUL 2015

31 JUL 2015 129

128

338

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31 JUL 2015

110

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

COPPER

31 AUG 2015

350

347

344

342

339

337

335

333

330

CRUDE OIL

20 JUL 2015

3230

3200

3170

3130

3100

3070

3040

3010

2980

GOLD

05 AUG 2015 25500 25300

25100

24900

24700

24500

24300

24100

23900

LEAD

31 JUL 2015

116

114

112

110

108

106

104

102

100

NATURAL GAS

28 JUL 2015

187

185

183

181

179

177

175

173

171

NICKEL

31 JUL 2015

760

750

740

730

720

710

700

690

680

SILVER

04 SEP 2015 34800 34600

34400

34200

34000

33800

33600

33400

33200

127

125

123

121

119

117

115

ZINC

31 JUL 2015

131

129


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 AUG 2015

575

574

573

572

571

570

569

568

567

SYBEANIDR

20 AUG 2015

3540

3456

3372

3341

3288

3257

3204

3120

3036

RMSEED

20 AUG 2015

4384

4298

4212

4181

4126

4095

4040

3954

3868

JEERAUNJHA

20 AUG 2015

16251 16031

15811

15723

15591 15503 15371 15151

14931

CHANA

20 AUG 2015

4921

4818

4715

4680

4612

4577

4509

4406

4303

CASTORSEED

20 AUG 2015

4132

4063

3994

3964

3925

3895

3856

3787

3718

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 AUG 2015

581

579

577

575

573

570

568

566

564

SYBEANIDR

20 AUG 2015

4000

3778

3556

3433

3334

3211

3112

2890

2668

RMSEED

20 AUG 2015

4638

4476

4314

4232

4152

4070

3990

3828

3666

JEERAUNJHA

20 AUG 2015

17985 17245

16505

16070

15765 15330 15025 14285

13545

CHANA

20 AUG 2015

5021

4887

4753

4699

4619

4565

4485

4351

4217

CASTORSEED

20 AUG 2015

4409

4257

4105

4020

3953

3868

3801

3649

3497


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS � Gold Gold prices on Friday fell by Rs 320 to trade at Rs 25,050 per 10 gm and silver cracked the Rs 34,000-level to trade at about five-year low at the bullion market here due to a weak trend in global market and slackened demand from jewelers and retailers.Bullion merchants said a weak global trend where gold extended losses to five-year low as the US economy data that showed improvement backed the case for higher interest rates, has cut demand for the precious metals as a safe-haven, leading to fall in gold and silver prices. Lead down by 1% on weak global cues Lead prices declined by 1.02% to Rs 111.80 per kg in futures trade on Wednesday as participants reduced their positions amid a weak trend in base metals overseas.Further, subdued demand at domestic spot markets too weighed on prices.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in July month contracts was down by Rs 1.15, or 1.02% to Rs 111.80 per kg in business turnover of 409 lots.On similar lines, the metal for delivery in August shed Rs 1.10, or 0.96% to trade at Rs 113.10 per kg in 20 lots.It is attributed that the fall in lead futures to trimming of positions by speculators taking weak cues from London Metal Exchange (LME) it fell to the lowest level in two weeks as industrial metals retreated amid concern about slowing demand in China, the world's biggest consumer, and prospects for higher US interest rates.Globally, at LME, lead fell by 1.3%.

� Copper Amid a weak trend in global market and easing spot demand,ccopper prices fell marginally 0.09% to Rs 345.10 per kg in futures trade on friday.At Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in far-month November shed 30 paise, or 0.09%, to Rs 345.10 per kg in a business turnover of 36 lots.The metal for delivery in August traded lower by 25 paise, or 0.07%, to Rs 338.35 per kg in 773 lots.It is attributed that the fall in copper futures to a weak trend in base metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on rising supply and slowing Chinese demand.Besides, a stronger dollar, which makes raw materials more expensive in other currencies, too weighed on the metal futures here.Globally, copper for delivery in three months fell 1.3% at to $5,202.50 at the LME, the lowest level since 2009. The metal on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also slid to the lowest since 2009.Meanwhile, copper inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange have surged 92% in 2015.

Metal prices hit multi-year lows on Friday after weaker-than-expected data from China and the euro zone raised concerns about global growth, but the US dollar rose as a Federal Reserve rate hike was still on the table. London copper fell to its lowest level since 2009 after a survey showed China's factory sector contracted by the most in 15 months in July due to shrinking orders, fuel ling worries over


demand in the top metals consumer as stockpiles steadily mount. The flash Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 48.2, below economists' estimate for a reading of 49.7. It was the fifth straight month below 50, the level which separates contraction from expansion.

✍ Crude Oil Oil prices rose in Asia on Friday following recent losses but the rebound is unlikely to be sustained because of a global crude glut.US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for September delivery edged up 32 cents to $48.77 a barrel in late-morning Asian trade. The contract finished below $49 yesterday for the first time since March 31.Brent crude for September advanced 17 cents to $55.44.Over the week WTI is down more than 4.0% and Brent has lost nearly 3.0%.The prospects of Iranian oil returning to the oversupplied market after Tehran reached a deal with major powers over its nuclear ambitions is dampening appetite.The deal provides will see world powers lift crippling economic sanctions, which have restricted Iran's oil exports, in return for toning down its atomic programmed.Once sanctions have been lifted, the Iranian authorities assert that the country could double exports within two months. This would be an increase of over one million barrels per day to an already oversupplied market.Iran does have considerable quantities of crude oil in storage, both on land and at sea, which could be sold as soon as sanctions are lifted.Iran has the fourth biggest proven oil reserves in the world.Oil prices have plummeted from above $100 a barrel in June last year because of the supply glut brought about by strong production from the United States and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries led by Saudi Arabia.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ According to IBIS import of pulses in the last week (29 June-05 July) was 90 Thousand tonnes at major ports in India which is around 14% lower than last week (21-28 June), which was 105 thousand tonnes. Moong, Urad and Yellow Pea were imported lower this week whereas Masoor and Toor were imported higher as compare to last week.

In the US soybean crop progress report, as on 19 Jul, soybean has fully emerged by the period. Further, about 56% is blooming which is in line with the 5 year average but slightly below the 57% compared to the last year. About 17% of the crop is reported

Standing Guar Seed Crop likely to benefit by recent showers in Haryana and North Rajasthan (Hanumangarh and Ganganagar region). Farmers in Haryana and North Rajasthan sown guar seed crop on time due to good preci Cardamom prices were down by 0.80 per cent to Rs 797.50 per kg in futures trading today as


traders reduced holdings amid fall in demand in the spot market against ample stocks position. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in August month eased by Rs 6.40, or 0.80 per cent to Rs 797.50 per kg in business turnover of 149 lots. Likewise, the spice for delivery in September contracts shed Rs 2.50, or 0.32 per cent to Rs 790 per kg in 13 lots. Market men said besides fall in demand in the spot market, adequate stocks position on higher supplies from producing belts mainly kept pressure on cardamom prices at futures trade. � NCDEX APP National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) launched a mobile app to give anytime, anywhere access to prices and market information about commodities traded on it.

The online commodity exchange has partnered with Trakinvest, a Singapore based financial technology firm, to develop this app. It will give users access to prices, news, updates, market data and analysis for commodities.

The NCDEX App will help investors to stay in touch with the market. Our partner Trakinvest has a deep understanding of technology and financial markets.

� Jeera Jeera kept trading moderately weak even as high volatility persisted. Lack of strong demand in mandis kept trend weak for Jeera as markets failed to recover. Even as lower production kept supporting the prices, exporters are reportedly waiting for some more corrections before initiating fresh demand in mandis.NCDEX Jeera August contract was trading down by -0.67% to 15555 levels on Friday.Jeera August contract may trade sideways for short term and intra day. Short term support for NCDEX Jeera August contract is seen at 14800 and resistance at 16100. For intra day, support is at 15550 and resistance at 15700.Low demand was noted as traders waited for some more dips before initiating fresh demand in the man-dis. Short term trend looks slight weak as Monsoon sets in over Gujarat and Rajasthan in coming weeks. Overall trend looks firm in long term though, based on lower production reports.In near future progress of the monsoon will be a key factor for price direction as it will have impact on sowing and production of Jeera for next season. Jeera prices at NCDEX touched all time high of 18700 last month on the back of concerns over lower acreage.

� Chana Rains this week in Central and North-West India remain critical for the sowing of the kharif Pulses and would determine the trend for Chana also. But an overall low production and lower stocks could support the prices.Chana August contract is likely to trade bullish for both short


term and intra day. Short term support is seen at 4500 and resistance at 4720. Intra day support is seen at 4600 and resistance at 4640. August contract was seen trading up 0.33% to 4630 level on Tuesday.Govt initiatives to improve supply could limit the uptrend as it proposes to import 5000 tons Urad and has floated tender for import of 5000 tons. However with prices having fallen a lot, some recovery in demand could support the prices. As per latest Govt reports, the area under Kharif Pulses has risen to 55.99 lakh ha as on 17th July vs 23.92 lakh ha same period last year. Above normal rains in Central and South India have improved sowing, keeping prices down for Chana in June.Month of July however saw a bounce back as rainfall activities slowed down. That is however again expected to pick up in coming days.India increased the import of pulses to fulfill domestic consumption after a fall in pulses production.As per latest estimate of Finance Ministry pulses import has risen more than 20% in May. India consumes around 253-240 lakh ton pulses annually but in 2014-15 pulses production has fallen to 173 lakh ton from 193 lakh tons in 2013-14 due to unfavorable weather indicating more import in coming months.


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