TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY FIFTY : - The Market has kick started the week on a strong note supported by Index heavyweight. The Nifty is up 50 points or 0.7 per cent at 7784. Asian stocks open mixed, as oil prices rallied on supply outages in Canada. The Chinese economy is showing fresh sign of stability amid a broader slowdown. The Market is fluctuating in a band after the sharp run-up over the past 2-3 months. We are expecting the short-term trend will be dictated by the remaining quarterly numbers and further announcement on monsoon apart from global cues. What would determine the market movement for short-term is how global market react to the rebound ,that we are seeing because of the US data. Although the Volatility in the market will be continue Nifty may consolidate between 7600 to 8000 levels. With Nifty50 at 7900 on a closing basis. We are heading for the 8000-8150 levels. The open Interest on 7900-8000 are very high and they are still showing outstanding position it will be very difficult for Nifty to cross the level of 8000. The Strong Support for Nifty is 7800-7700 and Resistance is 8050-8160. BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty has opened positive on Monday at 16357 up by 61 points or 0.4 per cent. The Finance Ministry has said that the Fresh capital to Public Sector Banks will be linked to their Performance , especially Recovery done by them, official have conveyed to Banks in an Interaction. The Reserve Bank of India may face serious challenge from the softer interest rate regime when it come to managing cash or liquidity in the system. The Reserve Bank of India has cautioned Banks from lending more to power distribution companies or Discom in a recent letter to select state owned banks the Regulator has advised them to exercise caution in giving new loans to the utilities remind them that any additional exposure to Discom. The Nifty Trend seen bull side on technical basis. We could see the good rally in Public Sector Banks in upcoming week. The Crucial levels for Bank Nifty is 16690-16700 down side and 17150-17260 is up side.
TECHNICAL VIEW : NIFTY FUTURE NIFTY FUTURE
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
DAILY
8085
7951
7884
7817
7683
WEEKLY
8299
7973
7810
7647
7321
MONTHLY
8445
8025
7815
7605
7185
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
DAILY
17883
17165
16806
16447
15729
WEEKLY
18890
17338
16562
15786
14234
MONTHLY
18935
17397
16628
15859
14321
TECHNICAL VIEW : BANK NIFTY
BANK NIFTY
MOVING AVERAGE
21 DAYS
50 DAYS
100 DAYS
200 DAYS
NIFTY FUTURE
7813
7696
7588
7837
BANK NIFTY
16504
15999
15722
16638
PARABOLIC SAR
DAILY
WEEKLY
MONTHLY
NIFTY FUTURE
7956
7379
6840
BANK NIFTY
17038
14574
17596
PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart On the Above given chart of Nifty has applied the Parabolic SAR along with Moving Average Conversion & Diversions these are the trend identifying pattern and made the Resistance level in the Nifty daily chart that made on the above given chart we have draw the for more than the week period and it is not able to
break the up level. However in upcoming trading session it could come back the level which is the strong Resistance for the Nifty50 around 8000. Now we are expecting that if the Nifty is able to sustain the 7850 level we may witness the Bullish trend of Nifty for some more sessions on the other hand if Nifty rebound the 7800-7850 level again we may see the positive rally in the index. The Strong Support for Nifty50 is 78007750 and the Resistance is 7950-8000.
PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Details of Chart-
On the Above given chart of Bank Nifty has applied the Channel line along with MACD these are the trend identifying pattern and made the Resistance level in the Bank Nifty daily chart that made on the above given chart we have draw the Channel line for more than the week period and it is not able to break the up level.
However in upcoming trading session it could break the upper level which is the strong Resistance for the Nifty50 around 16700. Now we are expecting that if the Bank Nifty is able to sustain the 16700 level we may witness the consolidation trend of Bank Nifty for some more sessions on the other hand if Bank Nifty rebound the 16700-16900 level again we may see the positive rally in the index. The Strong Support for Bank Nifty is 16500-16350 and the Resistance is 16900-17200.
NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS COMPANY NAME
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
ACC
EQ
1472
1464
1453
1445
1434
ALBK AMBUJACEM ASIAN PAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ- AUTO BANKB ARODA BANKINDIA BHEL BHARTIARTL CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK ITC INDUSIND BANK INFY JINDALSTEL KOTAKBANK LT M&M MRF MARUTI ONGC ORIENTBANK RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE
EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ
54 224 958 501 2566 159 88 128 367 542 287 132 2971 407 4331 735 1225 1159 2976 96 870 234 325 1076 1219 66 739 1333 1349 33789 3902 208 85 55 417 998
53 222 947 496 2549 158 87 126 363 537 285 128 2940 397 4301 729 1202 1153 2953 94 857 232 322 1069 1215 65 728 1315 1337 33429 3877 206 84 54 410 991
53 219 937 491 2529 156 86 124 358 534 281 125 2912 377 4232 721 1180 1141 2924 91 839 227 319 1062 1203 63 718 1298 1320 33140 3853 204 83 52 400 983
52 217 926 486 2512 154 86 122 354 529 279 121 2881 367 4202 715 1157 1135 2901 89 826 225 316 1055 1199 62 707 1280 1308 32780 3828 202 82 51 393 976
51 214 916 481 2492 152 85 120 349 526 276 117 2853 347 4133 707 1135 1123 2872 87 808 220 313 1048 1187 60 697 1263 1291 32491 3804 200 81 49 383 968
RELINFRA RPOWER SBIN SSLT( VEDL) SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL UNIONBANK
EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ
553 51 190 105 812 399 72 333 132
539 51 188 102 807 395 71 328 129
523 50 186 100 799 390 70 325 123
NEXT WEEK STARS (AS PER TECHNIC AL ANALYSIS PRIDIC TION) NSE C ASH 1. NSE CASH : BUY GODREJPROP NSE CASH ABOVE 328 TGT 357 SL 319. 2. NSE CASH : BUY ITDCEM NSE CASH ABOVE 141 TGT 154 SL 137. 3. NSE CASH : BUY RAYMOND NSE CASH ABOVE 472 TGT 516 SL 457. 4. NSE CASH : BUY GPPL NSE CASH ABOVE 165 TGT 180 SL 160. 5. NSE CASH : BUY RAMCOCEM NSE CASH ABOVE 496 TGT 541 SL 481. NSE Future 1. NSE FUTURE : BUY PETRONET FUTURE ABOVE 285 TGT 288 SL 283 2. NSE FUTURE : BUY TATAELXSI FUTURE ABOVE 1925 TGT 1945 SL 1910 3. NSE FUTURE : BUY YESBANK FUTURE ABOVE 968 TGT 978 SL 960 4. NSE FUTURE : VEDL FUTURE ABOVE 102.50 TGT 104 SL 101.50 5. NSE FUTUR E : SELL ORIENTBANK FUTURE BELOW 83 TGT 81 SL 84.50
509 49 184 97 794 386 69 320 120
493 48 182 95 786 381 68 317 114
NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LET TERS TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK Indirect tax mop up grows 41% to Rs 64,394 crore in April - Indirect tax collections witnessed an increase of 41 per cent to Rs 64,394 crore mainly on the account of spurt in central excise realisation. Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia said excise duty mop up in April spurt by 70 per cent to Rs 28,252 crore as against Rs 16,546 crore in the year-ago month. "Provisional revenue figures for indirect tax for April 2016 are Rs 64,394 crore, a 41 per cent growth over April 2015 of Rs 45,417 crore," Adhia said. RBI willing to unveil details of large borrowers, albeit for investigative agencies - The Reserve Bank of India seems to be willing to make public the names of loan defaulters to the government albeit on certain conditions. The central bank is open to disclosing the details of borrowers to the government who have taken large loans of over Rs.5 crore. Moreover, RBI would share details of such defaulters in case the information is sought by vigilance and investigative agencies, or for court cases, as per the report. India's fundamentals strong to attract investment: Shaktikanta Das - Ministry of Finance said India will continue to attract investments because of the inherent strength and the return it offers to investors. Amid concerns on how markets will react to the decision taken by India to tax capital gains from Mauritius, Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said international community is moving away from countries with zero tax regime. "India continues to be a robust economy and investments will come in because of fundamentals of the economy and because of the strength and resilience of the economy and return that India offers post tax," Das said. Mauritius treaty amendment: Status quo on Participatory Notes taxation - India’s revised tax treaty inked with Mauritius will have no bearing on investments via Participatory notes and the existing dispensation will continue to apply on them government said. It also sees no impact on foreign investment inflows on account of the revision. Revenue Secretary said. Impact of drought on economy pegged at Rs. 6,50,000 Crore - Drought in 10 state is estimated to impact the economy by at least Rs. 6,50,000 crore as about 33 crore people across 256 district are facing the grave situation , a study has revealed. Due to two consecutive years of poor monsoon, water shortage in reservoir as well as lowering of ground water table has created a serious challenge for the drought affected areas in 10 states like Karnataka and Mahabharata the study by Assocham. India well-Placed to maintain high growth despite drought, external pressures : UN Report - In a world economy still ensnared in a low-growth trap, India is well-placed to maintain its high growth rate despite the drought and the external pressures, according to UN analysts. The UN's mid-2016
report on the World Economic Situation and Prospects paints a "bleak picture" of the global economy projecting a growth rate of 2.4 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent next year with little prospect for a turn around, Lenni Montie, the Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development, told reporters Thursday after its release. In contrast, the report expected India to grow by 7.3 per cent this year and 7.5 per cent next year, the strongest gross domestic product growth rate for large economy. Raghuram Rajan says core inflation a bit higher than desired - India's core inflation remains sticky and a bit higher than policymakers would like to see, Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan said on Friday. "Broadly core inflation has a been fairly sticky, a bit higher than we would want. It hasn't moved up and down. We will continue on the task of anchoring expectations," Rajan said, speaking at an event at the Chicago Booth business school in London. Rajan also said India was in the midst of a slow recovery though there were signs of faster growth, with possible acceleration coming from a good monsoon. PEs, VCs may eye new tax havens like Sweden and Cyprus as Government tweaks Mauritius pact - With India deciding to impose capital gains tax on investments coming from Mauritius starting next year, private equity and venture capital funds may choose to structure investment through other tax havens. But there too, they may take a close look at the special purpose vehicles that carry the investments as there are fears that all such tax treaty may be amended. Fund managers and lawyers expect high cost jurisdictions like the Netherlands, Sweden or even volatile countries like Cyprus as the next destinations for routing India-specific investments. However, there will still have a significant impact on private capital as most of the PE and VC investments are into unlisted companies, where capital gains will be taxed at 40%, they said.
TOP ECONOMY NEWS A Parliamentary panel has asked the Information and Broadcasting Ministry to consider the issue of longterm financial support to Indian manufacturers of Set Top Boxes to help them face competition from Chinese companies. Project cost of as many as 238 infrastructure projects, monitored by the Statistics Ministry, have overshot by Rs 1.6 trillion from their original estimates due to delays on account land acquisition forest clearances and other reasons. Steel consumption in India fell to 5.75 million tonnes in April, the lowest since the same month in 2015, dealing a fresh blow to domestic manufacturers already battling cheap imports. Iron ore traffic including pellets, at major ports, saw a sharp fall of 28.13% in the last fiscal as imports
declined heavily and hinterland movement of the ore was subdued because of weak demand. Passenger car sales in India rose 1.87% in April on popular new models like Maruti Baleno and Renault Kwid, although a subdued rural market continued to affect the overall sentiment according to the Director General of Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers . Odisha government, which is giving final touches to its business process outsourcing policy, aims to create 10,000 BPO seats in the state, especially in the rural pockets. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley reportedly said India can grow better and faster on the back of global recovery and good monsoon. Five leading Indian-owned businesses in the United Arab Emirates will invest over $3.68 bn in infrastructure and industrial development initiatives in Uttar Pradesh after an MoU was signed in this regard during an investment forum. The Protocol for amendment of the Convention for the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income and capital gains between India and Mauritius was signed by both countries today at Port Louis, Mauritius. Corporate India's merger and acquisition activity witnessed a significant uptrend in April and touched $3.64 billion, over two-fold jump over the corresponding period last year. Government has initiated a probe into dumping of certain radial tyres from China that are used in buses, lorries and trucks and may end up imposing duty on them to protect the domestic industry. The state of Tamil Nadu has been placed on top in terms of growth in live investments attracted by the irrigation sector. Compounded annual growth rate was over 32%. The Parliament has passed the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley moved the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Bill in Rajya Sabha on Wednesday for debate and passage. After a brief debate, the Upper House passed the Bill. Telecom operators owe the government Rs. 548 billion in licence fee, spectrum charges and arrears, of which Rs. 443 billion is under litigation, Telecom Minister said. India will file 16 cases against the US for violating WTO treaties as certain programmes of the western country in the renewable energy sector are "inconsistent" with global norms, Parliament was informed. Indirect tax collections jumped 42% in April on sharp rise in excise collections owing to increased duty on petrol and diesel.
Iran has ended free shipping of crude oil to India and has asked refiners like Mangalore Refineries and Essar Oil to arrange for freight, Oil Minister said. The Union Cabinet chaired by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given its approval for signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Securities and Exchange Board of India and Financial Services Regulatory Authority, Abu Dhabi for mutual co-operation and technical assistance between the two regulators. In dismal news for the economy retail inflation , as measured by the Consumer price Index , reversing the trend rose sharper than expected at 5.39 per cent for April compare to 4.83 in march. These numbers were way higher that street expectation of a numbers above 5 per cent and something which definitely does not augur well for the economy Specially for the Reserve Bank of India. The India Meteorological Department, as well as Skymet, have made a forecast of "above normal" monsoon this year. Monsoon will hit Kerala between May 28 and 30, two-three days before its normal onset date of June 1, private forecasting agency Skymet said.
TOP CORPORATE NEWS Buoyed by sale of over 100,000 vehicles equipped with auto gear shift, Maruti Suzuki Limited plans to offer this technologies in more models sold in the domestic market. Godrej Properties is aiming to launch 15 new projects, including one in Noida, and sell its completed commercial assets worth Rs 15 billion during this fiscal as the realty firm seeks to achieve higher growth. ITC Limited cigarette factories have resumed production in a phased manner with the specified 85% graphical warning pending hearing by the Karnataka High Court. Kalyan Jewellers is aiming for a turnover of INR 13,000 crore in the current fiscal year. Emami Limited is aggressively looking at acquisitions in India and abroad, Chief Financial Officer N.H. Bhansali has said. The state-run Steel Authority of India Limited would curtail the strength of its workforce in a move aimed to reduce the manpower cost in the company. Public lender Bank of Baroda and Max Bupa, a specialist health insurer, today put in place a bancassurance corporate agency agreement.
Eicher Motors, the maker of Bullet motorcycle has announced plan to invest Rs 10 billion in FY-17 to fund its expansion plans. ONGC Limited crude oil production has risen for the second consecutive year in 2015-16 but natural gas output continues to decline. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries has launched an innovative mobile app to connect doctors with asthma patients. L&T Finance Holdings Ltd plans to sell private equity and proprietary investments worth over Rs 8bn to unlock value in current financial year. Infosys Foundation, philanthropic arm of Infosys, has signed a pact with Indian Institute of Science Education and Research , Pune, to support students from economically weaker section to pursue 'high quality' education. Crompton Greaves has signed a share purchase agreement with First Reserve International, a US private equity fund for an enterprise value of 115 million euros. UltraTech Cement has received approval from the board of directors to hike the registered foreign portfolio investors limit to up to 30 % from existing 24 per cent. Crompton Greaves has launched a smart ceiling fan which could sense the temperature in the room and change the speed accordingly, in order to accelerate its growth in a fan market which is growing at a slow pace. Tata Steel has achieved a major breakthrough in its industrial park being developed at Gopalpur in south Odisha with the project getting the status of a Special Economic Zone . Kotak Mahindra Prime said Tuesday it will raise Rs 500 mn by issuing debentures on a private placement basis. Maruti Suzuki limited has urged its component suppliers to make investment for the future as the company's requirements are expected to grow, with it predicting double-digit expansion in annual sales at least until 2020. Emami Ltd. has relaunched male fairness cream Fair and Handsome to consolidate its share in the Indian market, for which it will launch a new advertising campaign with its brand ambassador Shah Rukh Khan.
The government has asked global automotive technology companies Bosch and Cummins to provide retrofitting technology to convert old diesel vehicles into electronic vehicles. Havells India Ltd. on Tuesday said Karnataka Industrial Areas Development Board has allotted land admeasuring 62 acres to it at Vasanthanarasapura Industrial Area, Tumkur, Karnataka, for establishing a unit for manufacturing of cable & wire, MCB, LED, electronics, solar lights at a tentative rate of Rs 4.03 mn/acre. Adani Power has raised Rs. 3.3 billion by allotments of non-convertible debentures on a private placement basis. Vedanta Resources has pegged its aluminium production cost below the level of US$ 1400 a tonne in this financial year, aiming to close in on the gap with global producers like Rusal, Rio Tinto Alcan and Norsk Hydro. Sterlite Technologies has won the Jaipur Smart City Phase - II Project. Jaipur was selected under the Smart City Mission of the Ministry of Urban Development launched in 2015. This is Sterlite's second smart city project win. Reliance Jio Infocomm, Reliance Industries subsidiary, has launched its digital wallet service, JioMoney Wallet, for Indian consumers, following the introduction of 4G services to the public through an employee-driven invite system. Hit hard by the retrospective tax, Cairn Energy plc of UK has offered to pay 15% of the Rs. 102 billion principal amount in return for government lifting freeze on the 9.8% shares it holds in its erstwhile subsidiary, Cairn India. Zydus Cadila has received final approval from the US health regulator to market anti-diabetic Glyburide tablets in the American market. TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK Lakshmi Vilas Bank new chief executive has drawn up an ambitious 10-year plan to revitalise business and has set up big targets to improve performance on a variety of operational parameters. The Reserve Bank of India may face serious challenge from the softer interest rate regime when it comes to managing cash or liquidity in the system as significant fund flows could create a vacuum between
September and November this year. Fresh capital to PSU banks will be linked to their performance, especially recoveries done by them — this is the message that finance ministry officials have conveyed to banks in an interaction recently, said senior bank officials. Bankers may have a low credibility for having "cried wolf too often", RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said even as he appeared favouring their case for easing of strict capital control measures to boost growth. Kotak Mahindra Bank announces rise in earning at a time when most Indian Bank’s Profitability has been marred by high levels of bad loans and Provisions Kotak Mahindra Bank Earning reflect the rise of yet another Superior class Bank despite the Challenging time. The Reserve Bank of India has cautioned Banks from lending more to power distribution companies or dis com in a recent letter to select state owned banks the Regulator has advised them to exercise caution in giving new loans to the utilities remind them that any additional exposure to Discom. Public sector banks continue to report poor earnings on the back of worsening asset quality. Bengaluruheadquartered public sector lender Vijaya Bank on Thursday reported a 26% drop in net profit for the fourth-quarter ended March 2016 at Rs 71.3 crore on account of higher provisioning. Bankers may have a low credibility for having "cried wolf too often", RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said even as he appeared favouring their case for easing of strict capital control measures to boost growth. The outspoken Governor also likened the situation in India to that of small and medium enterprises in industrial countries, saying a need for faster growth is the central factor in both scenarios.
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