TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY FIFTY : - Indian Bench Mark Index Nifty has given breakout of its weekly target 8598 and made a high of 8672 Last week Nifty closed at 8641 after making a low of 8327. The Nifty Index rallied by 3.5% in last week. Bull has shown strong control on Indian Market on Friday, where Nifty rallied 0.45% the equity benchmark Nifty opened at 8611 and made a low of 8607, the index rallied to make high of 8673 and closed at 8641. Nifty open flat note on Monday down by 6 points at 8635.
Speculative movement is expected on UP
election. First phase of election will start from 11 th Feb and results will be declared on 15 th of March. RBI to announce its Monetary Policy on 8 th Feb, expectation of which will also have a major impact on the markets. Federal Reserve to announce its Monetary policy, This may also affect the market movement. Market is still in Positive zone and traders should go long at every dip in the market. Some profit booking can’t be ruled out but every downfall would be temporary and an opportunity for traders to go long in the market. Nifty is now headed towards 8900-9000 levels. Market would enter into negative zone, if it closes below 8627 levels. For now, Market has taken monthly reversal and 9000 levels would achieve in upcoming days for Nifty irrespective of any temporary downfall. The Significance levels of Nifty is 8628-8565 is Down side and 8825-8962 is Up side.
BANK NIFTY : - Bank Nifty outperformed the Nifty and rallied 4.72% to make a high of 19795 and closed at 19708, the Index low was 18722 and opening was at 18762. Bank Nifty also participated in the rally on Friday and made a high of 19795 and closed at 19708, 235 points up from its previous day’s close of 19473. ICICI Bank has risen by 4.64%, which has 19% weight-age in the Banking Index. Bank’s credit growth is likely to remain subdued at 5-6 per cent in the current financial year on weak loan demand and as debt market continues to offer better priced. Although, Bank Nifty is in Positive momentum and would drive market towards specified targets. Traders can hold long positions with stoploss of 19726 for Bank Nifty spot levels on closing basis. The Resistance to the up move is at 20180-20270-20380-20576 levels and Support for Bank Nifty is at 19890-19760-19650 for next week
Monday, 6 Febuary 2017
TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY DAILY
WEEKLY
MONTHLY
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
8848
8768
8728
8688
8608
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
9331
8893
8674
8455
8017
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
9331
8893
8674
8455
8017
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
20715
20319
20121
19923
19527
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
22259
20711
19937
19163
17615
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
22171
20691
19951
19211
17731
BANK NIFTY DAILY
WEEKLY
MONTHLY
MOVING AVERAGE
21 DAYS
50 DAYS
100 DAYS
200 DAYS
NIFTY
8464
8365
8356
8295
BANK NIFTY
19146
18868
18779
18434
PARABOLIC SAR
DAILY
WEEKLY
MONTHLY
NIFTY
8432
7989
8084
BANK NIFTY
18860
17726
16970
PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given Chart of Nifty We can see that Nifty index has been trading in the Range of 8700-8780 Range in Whole Week. . We also see that the index is building a Bearish Kind of’ Pattern. The Bullish Pattern had made in the levels of 8350 after which it created a high of 8780. If Trend is Followed, Nifty would trade in Positive zone for next trading session and can touch the level of 8900. The Bollinger Band is Also giving Signal that if it is not Sustaining the Level of 8340 could move the Nifty toward the 9000 level. The Support for the Nifty is 8600-8650-8700 and the Resistance to the up move is at 8760-8800 levels.
PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Detail of Chart -On the Above given daily Chart of BANK NIFTY has Applied the Bollinger Band along with MACD. Both are the Indicators trading in Positive Territory and it is clearly visible if the banking Index is able to Sustain the level of 20050 can move the index toward the 20350-20400 level in near term. From this level we are Expecting the If Bank Nifty is able to Sustain the Level of 20250 may go Further Up side to the level of 20300-20450 Level for Next week or sustaining below 20100 zone, Bank Nifty may further fall towards 19900-19550 area for next week trading Session. The Support for Bank Nifty is at 20050-19950 and the Resistance to the up move is at 20250- 20500 levels..
NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS COMPANY NAME
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
ACC ADANI PORTS
EQ EQ
1456 316
1441 310
1425 306
1410 300
1394 296
AMBUJACEM ASIAN PAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBARODA BPCL BHEL BHARTIARTL BOSCH LTD BHARTI INFRATEL CIPLA COALINDIA CAIRN INDIA LTD DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK ITC INDUSIND BANK INFY IDEA CELLULAR KOTAKBANK LT M&M MRF MARUTI SUZUKI ONGC NTPC RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SBIN SSLT( VEDL) SUNPHARMA TATA MOTORSDVR TCS TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL UNIONBANK YES BANK LIMITED ZEEL
EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ
234 998 499 2831 194 710 144 366 23169 308
232 992 495 2820 190 704 143 360 22779 303 619 328 283 3174 484 957 839 1407 1317 3231 195 855 285 275 1323 942 112 774 1494 1271 52453 6160 203 173 39 500 1045 545 47 280 257 651 338 2257 529 82 479 174 1406 509
230 986 487 2805 183 696 141 356 22557 299 599 324 278 3128 477 948 828 1396 1307 3216 192 847 281 273 1297 932 110 767 1475 1262 51251 6128 201 172 37 485 1038 537 46 276 253 646 336 2224 524 81 473 162 1396 500
228 980 483 2794 179 690 140 350 22167 294 588 322 272 3097 473 936 820 1384 1297 3198 188 841 278 270 1281 923 107 757 1463 1250 49849 6100 200 171 33 474 1025 528 44 274 245 642 330 2205 517 80 467 156 1389 486
226 974 475 2779 172 682 138 346 21945 290 568 318 267 3051 466 927 809 1373 1287 3183 185 833 274 268 1255 913 105 750 1444 1241 48647 6068 198 170 31 459 1018 520 43 270 241 637 328 2172 512 79 461 144 1379 477
630 330 289 3205 488 969 847 1419 1327 3249 199 861 288 278 1339 951 115 784 1506 1283 53855 6188 204 174 43 511 1058 554 49 282 265 655 344 2276 536 83 485 180 1413 523
TOP 15 ACHIEVERS SR.NO
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
PREV CLOSE
SCRIPT NAME
IDEA CELLULAR BANK OF BARODA BHARTI AIRTEL ITC LTD. DR. REDDY'S LABS CIPLA SBI INDUSIND BANK AXIS BANK LTD. ICICI BANK MARUTI SUZUKI TECH MAHINDRA L&T COAL INDIA LTD. BHEL
// CMP
% CHANGE
TOP 15 LOOSERS SR.NO
SCRIPT NAME
PREV CLOSE
CMP
% CHANGE
78
109
+ 40.32 %
1
BHARTA INFRA
353
299
- 15.27 %
167
186
+ 11.18 %
2
TCS
2357
2232
- 5.31 %
323
353
+ 9.28 %
3
AUROBINDO
713
684
- 4.05 %
257
273
+ 6.08 %
4
541
522
- 3.57 %
2994
3144
+ 5.01 %
5
TATAMOTORS LTD. NTPC
177
171
- 3.13 %
580
607
+ 4.78 %
6
KOTAK BANK
785
765
- 2.52 %
266
277
+ 4.17 %
7
ONGC
204
200
- 1.74 %
1253
1303
+ 3.98 %
8
WIPRO LTD
465
457
- 1.68 %
472
490
+ 3.77 %
9
BAJAJ AUTO LTD. 2854
2808
- 1.61 %
272
281
+ 3.51 %
10
HCL TECH
844
830
- 1.59 %
5915
6115
+ 3.37 %
11
AMBUJA CEM
232
229
- 1.52 %
467
480
+ 2.86 %
12
BHARAT PETRO
704
698
- 0.87 %
1439
1480
+ 2.83 %
13
HUL
855
849
- 0.72 %
317
326
+ 2.64 %
14
GAIL LTD.
482
478
- 0.69 %
139
142
+ 2.22 %
15
INFOSYS
942
936
- 0.64 %
5 3 2 1 1 0 0
NEXT WEEK STARS( AS PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ) NSE FUTURE NSE FUTURE :BUY DISHTV FUTURE ABOVE 89 TGT 92 SL 87.50 NSE FUTURE :BUY UNION BANK FUTURE ABOVE 155 TGT 160 SL 152 NSE FUTURE :BUY MARUTI FUTURE ABOVE 6200 TGT 6300 SL 6150NIFTY
NSE CASH NSE CASH : BUY GULFPETRO NSE CASH ABOVE 94.60 TGT 103 SL 92. NSE CASH : BUY QUICKHEAL NSE CASH ABOVE 281 TGT 297 SL 274 NSE CASH : BUY PVR NSE CASH ABOVE 1280 TGT 1355 SL 1250.
NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
Indian economy to grow 7-7.5 per cent in FY'18: Arvind Panagariya - Niti Aayog vice-chairman Arvind Panagariya today expressed hope that the economic growth in the next fiscal year would be in the range of 7-7.5 per cent. He said. By nature, I am an optimist, so I would remain on the higher side of it. So, if you feel that this range is too wide, personally, I would narrow it down to 7-7.5 per cent and maybe on the higher side of it with higher probability," Panagariya said. Niti Aayog vice chairman's statement assumes significance as it comes after the Economic Survey today. The pre-budget document pegged India's economic growth for 2017-18 in the range of 6.75-7.5 per cent. India one of world's largest recipients of FDI: Economic Survey - India has become one of the largest recipients of foreign direct investment on account of reform measures taken by the government, the Economic Survey for 2016-17 said today. FDI reform measures were implemented, allowing India to become one of the world's largest recipients of foreign direct investment ... India's FDI has risen sharply over time," the document, which was tabled in Parliament, said. In the most recent year, it said FDI is running at an annual rate of USD 75 billion, which is not far short of the amounts that China was receiving at the height of its growth boom in the mid-2000s. Black money: It could be Rs 3 lakh crore or Rs 7.3 lakh crore, says Economic Survey - The amount of potential black money in the system could be Rs. 3 lakh crore or Rs 7.3 lakh crore, says the Economic Survey. To estimate amount of black money, the Survey has used assumptions of soil rates - rate at which notes are considered to be too damaged to use and have been returned to the central bank - of other countries. The survey has used assumptions of soil notes of other countries to arrive at the number. "Using relative soil rates for the $50 and $20 notes and applying them to comparable Indian high denomination notes, yields an estimate of
the amount not used for transactions, and hence potentially black, of about Rs 3 lakh crore," said the Economic Survey in Demonitisation: to Defy or Demonitise. Rs 3 lakh crore represents 2% of the GDP. India's fiscal deficit reaches 94% of the budget estimate in December - Fiscal deficit in the first nine months of 2016-17 touched 93.9 per cent of the Budget target against 87.9 per cent for the same period a year ago. In value terms, the April-December fiscal deficit stood at Rs 5.01 lakh crore, or 93.9 per cent, of 2016-17 Budget estimates. The fiscal deficit stood at 87.9 per cent in the corresponding nine months a year ago, as per 2015-16 BE. Fiscal deficit, the gap between expenditure and revenue for the entire fiscal, has been pegged at Rs 5.33 lakh crore, or 3.5 per cent of the GDP, for the fiscal 2016-17. Economic Survey calls for need to set up government owned ARC to revive economy - The Economic Survey has called for a need to set up government owned asset reconstruction company in an attempt resolve the problems of mounting bad debts and revive the economy. This move, the Survey hints, could also ring fence PSU bankers from being questioned by investigative agencies on resolution of bad loans. The Economic Survey for 2016-17 has proposed setting up of Public Sector Asset Rehabilitation Agency which would "take charge of the largest, most difficult cases, and make politically tough decisions to reduce debt." The share of bad loans have touched 11.4% of total loans as on March 2016. "If PSU banks grant large debt reductions, this could attract the attention of the investigative agencies. But taking over large companies will be politically difficult, as well," said the survey. Budget 2017: Tax incentives to corporates to cost Rs 83,492 cr in FY1 - The government's revenue foregone in the form of incentives to corporates in the current fiscal is estimated to grow nearly 8.63 per cent to over Rs 83,492 crore. As per the Budget document 2017-18, the revenue foregone stood at Rs 76,857.70 crore in the 2015-16 fiscal. Revenue foregone on account of deduction of export profits of units located in SEZs (section 10A and 10AA) is estimated at Rs 20,492 crore in the current fiscal year. Companies take advantage of various concessions to reduce tax liability, while individuals park their funds in tax savings scheme to
reduce tax burden. Revenue foregone on deduction of profits of undertakings engaged in generation, transmission and distribution of power would be Rs 12,401.04 crore in 2016-17 compared to Rs 11,416 crore in the last fiscal year, the document said.
Budget 2017 shows resolve for fiscal prudence: Moody's - Acknowledging India's resolve to stick to fiscal consolidation road map as laid out in the 2017-18 Budget, Moody's today flagged "hurdles" to the revenue collection target. The rating agency also expressed concern over the budgeting of lesser capital -- Rs. 10,000 crore for infusion into public sector banks in 2017-18, which it said is a "credit negative". The government has budgeted for a lower fiscal deficit at 3.2 per cent of GDP next fiscal and 3 per cent in 2018-19. "Moody's expects the government to achieve its targets, based on achievable budget assumptions and demonstrated commitment to fiscal prudence, but also note that spending commitments are significant and structural hurdles to rapid increases in revenue collection are apparent," Moody's Investors Service said. � TOP ECONOMY NEWS
Eight core industries register a growth of 5.6% in December 2016 on the back of healthy output recorded by refinery products and steel. Government revised GDP growth for fiscal year 2015/16 to 7.9% from 7.6% projected earlier. Government will also announce second advance GDP estimates of FY17 on Feb 28. India's economy should grow between 6.75% and 7.5% in the financial year beginning on April 1, as per the Economic Survey. The Centre’s fiscal deficit touched 94% of the full year target by December 2016 while the revenue deficit breached the Budget estimate in the nine months of the fiscal.
The Central Board of Direct Taxes issued the clarifications on implementation of GAAR provisions, which is to kick-in from April 1 this year. According to the data released by the Securities and Exchange Board of India , mutual fund managers invested a net sum of Rs. 47.77 billion this month. Foreign investors have pulled out a little over Rs56bn from the Indian capital market so far this month, concerned about "lower prospects" of economic growth compared with other emerging markets. Country's foreign exchange reserves surged for the second consecutive week by USD 932.4 million to USD 361 billion in the week to January 20 on account of rise in foreign currency assets. Government plans to divest Rs. 110 billion worth of stake in PSU general insurance companies to meet the steep disinvestment target of Rs. 725 billion next fiscal. Rules for anti-tax avoidance and place of effective management are "here to stay" and will be implemented from April 1, the government said emphasising the rules have been delayed long enough and cannot be deferred any more. Investment outlay for Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd has been reduced to Rs. 43 billion for 2017-18, compared to the Budget Estimate of Rs. 73.17 billion for the current fiscal. RBI allowed NRIs access to the exchange traded currency derivatives market to hedge currency risk arising out of their investments in India, a move aimed at providing them additional heding options.
✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
Natco Pharma said a US District Court has ruled in favour of its marketing partner Mylan by invalidating Israel-based Teva Pharmaceuticals’ patents related to multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone 40 mg/ml.
Oil and Natural Gas Corp has received the first installment of USD 19 million from Venezuela's state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela towards recovering pending dividend.
Rural Electrification Corp has signed loan agreement with Tamil Nadu's power generation and transmission utilities for financial assistance of Rs. 68.90 billion.
Coal India’s unions are demanding a levy Rs. 20/ton the dry fuel to help the company's pension fund get enough cash. Telenor has approached Aircel and Reliance Communication to explore a merger via share swap, as consolidation grips the Indian airwaves.
Lokesh Machines Limited has signed up with Taiwanese company Tongtai Machine & Tool Co Ltd to manufacture hi-speed vertical machining centre model EZ5 for the Indian market as well as for re-export from its new facility at Kallakal near Hyderabad. After acquiring Reliance Cement Company, Birla Corporation Limited has re-christened Reliance Perfect Cement brand as MP Birla Perfect Cement and launched it in the fast-growing central India market.
NLC India Limited is planning to buy back shares worth Rs. 14.91 billion from the existing shareholders of the company.
Lokesh Machines Ltd is set to enter into an agreement with EMCO GmbH of Austria for the manufacture and sale of the latter's machines in India and export supplies. Fitch Ratings has assigned NTPC Limited EUR500 million, 2.75% notes due in 2027, a final rating of ‘BBB—’, which denotes investment grade.
Jain Irrigation Systems Limited will raise $ 200 million through issuance of dollar bonds
— for the first time — to overseas investors, primarily to retire debt.
Aditya Birla Group plans to invest Rs. 70 billion in the next two years in Andhra Pradesh on expanding existing businesses. The Competition Commission has approved Schneider Electric's proposed purchase of the remaining 26% in power backup solutions provider Luminous.
Larsen & Toubro Limited has bagged orders worth Rs 12.86 billion for construction jobs. UK Steel workers' unions have given their backing to Tata Steel Limited UK's pension plan in a bid to rescue thousands of jobs and allow a merger with ThyssenKrupp to go ahead.
Maruti Suzuki India Limited said that it will increase prices of products ranging from Rs 1,500 to Rs 8,014 (ex-showroom, Delhi) across models.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited and GAIL India Ltd signed a pact with Andhra Government for setting up a Rs 400 billion petrochemical plant in the state.
Balrampur Chini Mills Limited signed an agreement with Ganesh Explosives to sell its entire 53.96% stake in its subsidiary Indo Gulf Industries Ltd.
Granules India Limited has announced its move to invest USD20mn in its wholly-owned subsidiary Granules Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Dishman Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals Ltd has received an Establishment Inspection Report from the US health regulator on closure of inspection of its Bavla facility in Gujarat.
NLC India Limited is installing 500 MW solar power plants for Rs. 21.70 billion at various places in Tamil Nadu. It said the power plants are expected to generate 83 crore unit of power per annum.
NHPC Limited board of directors may consider a proposal for buyback of shares. IL&FS Engineering and Construction Company Ltd has received Letter of Intent for two Rural Electrification Works under Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gram Jyoti Yojana, and Integrated Power Development Works of West Bengal State Electricity Distribution Company Limited,
Kolkata worth Rs. 5.16 billion.
Ashok Leyland announced the opening of its new assembly plant in Bangladesh capital Dhaka.
Kwality Limited new unit in Haryana, has started commercial production.
� TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
State Bank of India, the country’s biggest lender, is seeking to increase its stake in its two credit-card joint ventures with diversified American conglomerate General Electric, as demonetisation increasingly drives consumers to spend online or through cards.
IDBI Bank officials internally quarrelled over the approach to sanction fresh loans to Kingfisher Airlines as a bunch of executives insisted on collateral before signing off on the dotted line while the top management overruled the juniors and instead went with Kingfisher Airlines brand as a guarantee which did not even have legal backing, the CBI alleges.
Banks are taking it on their chin from many sides - the government, the regulator, customers and even from competitors in the market. While many are grumbling that there is no credit demand, banks find the market is slowly slipping from under their hands thanks to them being uncompetitive, which is partly of their own making and partly due to regulatory obstacles.
The Economic Survey for the year 2017 warned banks against thwarting efforts of interoperability of the payments systems as it believes that the success of digitalisation and financial inclusion depends on the payment modes being interoperable across financial institutions.
Bank credit growth is likely to remain subdued at 5-6 per cent in the current financial year on weak loan demand and as debt market continues to offer better priced, according to a report. Deposit growth is likely to ease further to 12 per cent by end-March 2017, with banks cutting deposit rates and easing cash availability in the system, from 14.7 per cent as on January 6, said the report by rating agency Icra.
The Reserve Bank of India has stepped in to prevent loss making banks from defaulting on bonds that were raised to boost their capital adequacy ratio- the minimum capital that banks keep as a cushion against defaults on loans.
Banks will get an option to exit the unsold portion of the bad loans that are held as security receipts on their books. This follows an announcement by Arun Jaitley in the Union Budget that allows listing of SR at the stock exchanges. When banks sell bad loans to asset reconstruction companies, a part of the loan is sold for cash and for remaining part of bad loans, the ARCs issue SR which are similar to bonds which would be redeemed over five to seven years. Thus in a way, the bad loans sold to ARCs continue to be in the books of banks in form on investments. As of now, banks received 15% of loan sold in cash and balance as SRs.
Public sector Indian Bank has revised its rates for foreign currency interest rates on term deposits with immediate effect. As per the revised interest rate for FCNR deposits, in USD terms, the revised interest rate has been fixed at 2.26 per cent for deposits of one year and above but less than two years from the existing 2.20 per cent.
Government owned banks will have to tap the equities market and quickly sell non-core assets since the union budget have allocated just about Rs. 10,000 crore capital for banks what are struggling with huge pile up of bad loans.
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