TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY FIFTY : -
The Market opened gap up after an extended Weekend and Sustained
above 8900 throughout the day’s trading Session. The 50 Shares Index Nifty 50 Opened at 8852 up by 43 points or 0.48 per cent. After giving a breakout from 8670 levels. Nifty has managed to gain nearly 400 points. This rally has been triggered due to speculation of the US Fed not raising the interest rate in near future. Since the Nifty has touch above 9000 crucial Psychological level. Market may find resistance at this level. However the bull Market is intact and Secular in nature. It is important to note that the NSE small cap Index registered all time high of 6303. The Nifty could consolidate within the range of 8874-8971 due to lack of triggered from domestic or global market. From this point the Logical levels for Nifty will be 9025-9050 up side, and the 8860-8820 would be the important level down side. BANK NIFTY : -
The Bank Nifty opened in a positive note up by 107 points or 0.53 per
cent at 19990. The Bank Nifty got significant boost from the Public Sector Banks Stocks as FM talked about some political consensus for privatization of the same, Although it is too early to think about that, as the main priority will be recapitalization and actual resolution of stressed assets of the Public Sector Banks as of now. Although the underlying fundamental factors are optimistic for Bank Nifty the chances of technical correction or at least a retrenchment is increasing in probability. Recent decline in bond yields also aided the rally in Bank stocks by causing adjustments on their balance sheet, especially on Public sector banks. On Daily chart the price action becomes clearer and we see market is trading in price channel structure. Also some traders are pointing out upcoming monetary policy stance as the main mover behind the rally. The Crucial Levels for Bank Nifty is 20827-20556 up side and 20029-19773 is down side.
Monday, 12 September 2016
TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY DAILY
R2 9097
WEEKLY
R2 9215
MONTHLY
R2 9486
R1
PP
S1
S2
8969
8905
8841
8713
R1
PP
S1
S2
9007
8903
8799
8591
R1
PP
S1
S2
9074
8868
8662
R1
PP
S1
S2
20033
19615
S1
S2
19764
18710
S1
S2
19357
17689
50 DAYS
100 DAYS
200 DAYS
-
-
8250
BANK NIFTY DAILY
R2 20869
WEEKLY
20451
R2
R1
21872 MONTHLY
20242 PP
20818
R2 22693
20291
R1
PP
21025
20191
MOVING AVERAGE
21 DAYS
NIFTY
8760
-
BANK NIFTY
19605
-
-
PARABOLIC SAR
DAILY
WEEKLY
MONTHLY
NIFTY
8615
8429
8375
BANK NIFTY
18960
18337
18158
-
PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied the Bollinger Band Along with Parabolic SAR, both the indicators give early indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market. Along with that the Nifty dalily Chart is Froming the strong Bearish Pattern Which is the reversal trend Signal. As we have seen in last week the Nifty is traded in the narrow range of 8870-8900 Levels. Now it seems that trend could be reversal into the bearish Side in the Daily Chart has Formed the Beaish candle which is also the signal of bear market. If the Nifty is breaking the levels of 8860-8750 level we could witness the level of 8660-8580 in near Term. Move Toward the 8900 levels in upcoming will lead the Nifty to break the level of 9020-9200. The Crucial levels for Nifty is 8880-8750 down side and 8900-8940 is Upside.
PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY ) Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the
Bollinger Band along with the Parabolic , The Usage of bollinger Band differ from Trader-to-Trader indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market respectively. Thus the Bank Nifty Chart also formed the hanging man kind of pattern. Kind of Pattern which is a Bearish signal for market, from this Point we are Expecting if Bank Nifty Consolidate Upcoming week. Then it would touch the level of 19950-20250 in Near-Term. If we look into the Fundmaentals of Bank Nifty there are some action is taken to overcome the NPA issue of Public Sector Bank. The Important levels for Bank Nifty is 20180 - 19750 down side and 2380-20460 is up side.
NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS COMPANY NAME
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
ACC
EQ
1708
1680
1666
1638
1624
ALBK AMBUJACEM ASIAN PAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBARODA BANKINDIA BHEL BHARTIARTL CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK ITC INDUSIND BANK INFY JINDALSTEL KOTAKBANK LT M&M MRF MARUTI ONGC ORIENTBANK RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SBIN SSLT( VEDL) SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL UNIONBANK
EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ
89 278 1186 628 3143 177 127 157 330 601 335 163 3250 405 4810 797 1462 1303 3766 166 964 279 267 1237 1049 91 834 1552 1514 40915 5534 263 133 53 582 1059 642 55 270 180 826 586 79 411 154
87 275 1180 621 3089 174 125 156 326 589 333 160 3220 400 4756 789 1436 1297 3691 160 947 277 262 1229 1042 88 827 1532 1495 40557 5466 259 132 52 571 1050 629 54 266 175 810 580 78 403 151
86 273 1174 616 3053 173 123 154 322 584 332 156 3195 394 4723 781 1416 1287 3628 157 937 273 260 1214 1034 84 817 1521 1477 40192 5422 253 130 51 564 1040 622 54 265 173 802 575 77 398 150
84 270 1168 609 2999 170 121 153 318 572 330 153 3165 389 4669 773 1390 1281 3553 151 920 271 255 1206 1027 81 810 1501 1458 39834 5354 249 129 50 553 1031 609 53 261 168 789 569 76 390 147
83 268 1162 604 2963 169 119 151 314 567 329 149 3140 383 4636 765 1370 1271 3490 148 910 267 253 1191 1019 77 800 1490 1440 39469 5310 243 127 50 546 1021 602 53 260 166 778 564 75 385 146
TOP 15 ACHIEVERS SR.NO
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
SCRIPT NAME
PREV CLOSE
CMP
BHEL
136
154
ONGC
238
254
TATA STEEL
374
394
ICICI BANK
261
274
MARUTI SUZUKI
5160
5403
TATA MOTORS
549
573
SBIN
254
264
LUPIN LTD.
1518
1569
BANK BARODA
166
171
RELIANCE
1013
1044
AURO PHARMA
779
802
AXIS BANK LTD.
599
613
DR. REDDY LAB
3123
3193
BHARTI INFRA
343
351
INDUSIND BANK
1192
1217
// % CHANGE
+13.19 % +6.79 % +5.45 % +4.90 % +4.70 % +4.26 % +3.73 % +3.39 % +3.37 % +3.08 % +2.92 % +2.22 % +2.25 % +2.21 % +2.14 %
SR.NO
TOP 15 LOOSERS SCRIPT NAME
PREV CLOSE
CMP
% CHANGE
1
YES BANK LTD.
1388
1276
-8.07 %
2
TCS
2514
2352
-6.46 %
3
ULTRACEM
4085
3953
-3.22 %
4
TECHM
471
458
-2.87 %
5
TATA POWER
79
77
-2.28 %
6
HDFC
1439
1410
-1.98 %
7
ITC LIMITED
262
258
--1.75 %
8
HINDALCO
157
154
-1.53 %
9
AMBUJA
276
272
-1.34 %
10
IDEA
84
83
-1.01 %
11
ACC
1669
1653
-0.97 %
12
NTPC
160
158
-0.75 %
13
WIPRO
483
480
-0.63 %
14
HCL TECH
784
780
-0.51 %
15
GAIL LIMITED
394
394
-0.20 %
NEXT WEEK STARS( AS PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ) NSE FUTURE NSE FUTURE : BUY PNB FUTURE ABOVE 145 TGT 150 SL 142.50 NSE FUTURE : SELL SAIL FUTURE BELOW 50 TGT 47 SL 51.50 NSE FUTURE : BUY CEATLTD FUTURE ABOVE 1060 TGT 1090 SL 1045 NSE CASH NSE CASH : BUY MOTHERSUMI NSE CASH ABOVE 342 TGT 368 SL 331. NSE CASH : BUY TECHM NSE CASH ABOVE 465 TGT 495 SL 445.
NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK SIT on Black Money asks RBI to develop institutional mechanism to track illicit financial flows - Chairman, Special Investigation Team on Black Money, appointed by the Hon’ble Supreme Court, in a letter dated 11-Aug, to Governor, RBI has impressed upon the imperative need to establish the following institutional mechanism for sharing of data with the RBI in its various data bases with the Enforcement Authorities so that the data could be cross checked with other information available with Enforcement Authorities and illicit financial flows could be curbed. (a) Foreign Exchange Transactions Electronic Reporting System: FET–ERS was introduced through RBI Circular No.77 dated 13.March-04. All authorized dealers are obligated to report each foreign exchange transactions. Access to this database would needs to be given to authorities like Enforcement Directorate and Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, so that the above analysis could be done. For this, SIT has suggested that FET–ERS data should capture the PAN number of the importer or the exporter and that RBI take necessary steps for the same to get this done on an urgent basis. Nikkei India August services PMI at 54.7 - August saw a solid rebound in the rate of expansion in Indian service sector business activity. Output was raised in response to a marked improvement in new work inflows and increased levels of business confidence. The trend in employment remained comparatively subdued, however, with a slight decrease in jobs signal led for the first time since September of last year. At 54.7 in August, up from 51.9 in July, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index posted its highest level for over three-and-a-half years. The headline index has now signal led expansion in each of the past 14 months. Output grew in five of the six monitored categories, the exception being Hotels & Restaurants. With growth of manufacturing production also ticking higher, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index climbed from 52.4 in July to a 42-month high of 54.6 in August, highlighting a stronger improvement in private sector economic activity. Measured across the service economy, the level of incoming new work rose at the quickest pace for three-and-a-half years. Where an expansion was registered, companies mainly linked this to improved market conditions. Similarly,manufacturing order books increased at a sharp rate that was the quickest since December 2014. RBI Governor argues for Independent Central Bank for macroeconomic stability of the country - In his last public speech as the RBI Governor at St.Stephens College in
New Delhi, Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan explained why central banking was not as easy as it appeared - just raising or cutting interest rates - and why it needed decisions, sometimes unpopular or hard-to-explain ones, to be made under conditions of extreme uncertainty and argued in favor of having an independent central bank and the role and responsibilities of the central bank governor. The central bank governor has to make difficult policy choices often in the face of uncertainties after weighing the alternatives as best as one can. He cited the example of 2013, when due to weak macro fundamentals the rupee tumbled and it was necessary to get back the confidence of international investors and how he, who had just taken over as the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, had to decide on introducing the FCNR scheme in the midst of uncertainties. That the decision proved to be beneficial for the country, the Reserve Bank and the banks, taught him that "Policy making invariably involves taking measured risks in the face of uncertainty." He then made out a case for India to have a strong and independent central bank so that it could ensure macroeconomic stability. It is for taking complex decisions - often difficult for the common citizens to understand - That the central banks should be independent and should be able to say 'no' to seemingly attractive proposals, he argued but added that at the same time, it also cannot become free of all constraints. "It has to work under a framework set by the Government," he said. In his view, "Frameworks reduce the space for differences" and it was important that the constitutional authorities clearly outlined the central bank's responsibilities. He gave two examples - a framework for inflation objective and a risk management framework for RBI that indicated the level of equity the RBI needed, given the risks it faced, to be adopted by the RBI Board. "The RBI did not have the luxury of economic inconsistency," he said, be it interest rates, exchange rate, pushing banks to clean up or paying dividend to the government. In a poor country like India where so many people lived at the margin, the role of the central bank was to ensure that growth did not exceed the country's potential, adopting prudential policies that reduce the risk, and building sufficient buffers that the country was protected against shocks. The Governor also explained the economic rationale of why the RBI cannot pay special dividend to the government - in addition to the entire surplus being paid out for the last three years. High growth rate mandatory for collective well being: Arun Jaitley - A high growth rate is a requisite if the benefits of growth are to percolate down to the last man,
especially minorities. Post 1991 economic liberalization, the acceleration of growth rate has led to substantial reduction in poverty. All communities have shown reduction in poverty levels, however on an uneven basis, says Union Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, speaking at a Conference on Empowerment through Education – ‘Taalim-o-Tarbiyat’ in Mumbai. While higher growth rate impacts all by way of offering economic opportunities, certain minorities have lagged behind and those areas need to be addressed. Despite the poverty rate among Muslim community declining from 52% in 1991 to about 27% in 2011, some communities like Jains and Parsis have overcome the challenge of poverty, he said. Jaitley said education is the key to improve the conditions faster which would aid conversion of skills into opportunities. Madarasa is an important institution in imparting education for children of Muslim community and complimented the efforts of leaders like Zafar Sareshwala, for blending technology and traditional teachings, he said. Foreign portfolio investors approach government to iron out Singapore Treaty, GAAR issues - Foreign portfolio investors are lobbying the government to resolve problems related to the India-Singapore tax treaty and general anti-avoidance rules , worried about their investment in equities. FPIs fear after April 1, 2017, when both the renegotiated India-Singapore treaty and GAAR come into force, they will face challenges. One relates to double taxation in India and their home country. The Asia Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association, a Hong Kong-based grouping of FPIs and global banks, has written to the government and sought a meeting with the revenue secretary. They say there is ambiguity on the tax treaty and lack of clarity on how FPIs would be taxed under GAAR. One of the suggestions they've made is radical — abolish capital gains tax and increase securities transaction tax to make up for that. Apart from this, FPIs are of the view that capital gains exemption must be retained even under the renegotiated India-Singapore tax treaty as otherwise investing in India through Singapore "will not be cost effective." Governement begins discussions for creation of secretariat to assist GST Council The government has begun the groundwork for creation of a secretariat to cater to the Goods and Services Tax Council, which will be constituted after Presidential assent for the Constitution Amendment Bill enabling implementation of the proposed tax. The government wants the institutional arrangements ready so that the GST Council can start deliberating the nuances of the law quickly.
"Internal discussions have started. A
secretariat would support the Council's work," a government official told. The Council will take crucial decisions, from deciding the GST rate and the exemptions to finalizing the central, state and integrated GST laws and rules and the administrative structure. The Council is a joint body of the states and the center, which will control two-thirds and one-
third of the votes, respectively. All decisions will be taken with a three-fourth majority. The secretariat will be responsible for speedily exchanging proposals and views between the center and the states.
� TOP ECONOMY NEWS PMI rose to 54.7 points in August, up from 51.9 in July. A reading above 50 points shows expansion, while a reading below that mark means contraction. The services index has now signal led expansion in each of the past 14 months. The unemployment rate for urban areas read 11.24% in August 2016, higher than the 9.18% in rural pockets. Three out of the 10 provisionally licensed small banks are set to begin operations in the next few months as they have met the regulatory requirements and put in place the systems needed. The Indian economy grew at 7.1% in the first quarter of the fiscal, with good performance of sectors including manufacturing, electricity, financial services and public administration. Growth in the eight core sectors stood at 3.2% in July mainly due to sharp uptick in refinery products and a sustained rise in coal production. The index had grown by 5.2% in the previous month of June. The Cabinet allowed contractors to move to the new speedier arbitration process, approved release of 75% of the amount in dispute against bank guarantee and provided for a conciliation board comprising of independent domain experts in new contracts. After submission of the first list of PSUs for closure or sell off to the government, Niti Aayog is now working on another list for disinvestment. The special investigation team on black money has asked the Reserve Bank of India to develop an institutional mechanism, in consultation with the revenue department, to share export-import and foreign exchange transaction information with investigative agencies, to curb illicit financial flows out of the country.
For the first time, the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development will provide funds to the Central Government to fund irrigation projects.
✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS NBCC India Limited bagged projects worth Rs. 6.15 billion last month. Reserve Bank has restricted foreign investors to increase stake further in Trent limited as the permissible limit has been crossed. Along with some offshore creditors, SC Lowy has taken the harsh step of recalling USD 150 million loan to JSPL after it failed to comply with certain loan covenants. Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited has commissioned the fourth and last unit of the 4x40MW Teesta Low Dam Hydro Electric Project Stage-IV in West Bengal. DLF Limited announced the sale of its remaining 7 screens of DT Cinemas in the national capital to Cinepolis India for nearly Rs. 640 million, thereby exiting the cinema exhibition business. Cadila Healthcare Limited has received an Establishment Inspection Report from the US health regulator for its manufacturing plant in Ahmedabad. Natco Pharma Limited said the US Patent and Trademark Office has ruled in favour of its marketing partner Mylan by invalidating the Israel-based Teva Pharmaceuticals’ patent related to multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone 40 mg/ml. Larsen & Toubro’s construction arm has bagged orders worth Rs. 14.58 billion across business verticals. Delta Corp Limited has acquired Gauss Network, which owns Adda52.com, in a part cash, part equity deal. The value of the deal, is over Rs. 1.50 billion. Patel Engineering Limited has won arbitration awards of over Rs. 25 billion and expects its debt to halve on Cabinet's decision to revive construction sector. Cipla Limited has received final approval for its Abbreviated New Drug Application for Darifenacin extended-release tablets from the United States Food and Drug Administration.
Infosys Limited has become the latest Indian IT services company to set up a joint venture with a local company in Saudi Arabia to tap local customers in the Islamic Kingdom, which is using technology to transform itself from being a oil dependent company. Dynasty Acquisition Limited has sold 2.72 million shares in Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, for a total trade price of Rs. 3 billion. Coal India Limited will develop solar power plants of 600 MW capacity in four states, including West Bengal and Maharashtra, under the second phase of its plan to set up a total 1,000 MW green energy pl Tata Steel Limited had urged Chhattisgarh government to return the money it had deposited for purchasing land in Bastar where company had planned to set up mega steel plant. Indian Oil Corporation might hold 50% in a refinery being planned on the west coast if Saudi Arabia and Kuwait do not take up the offer of an equity stake. Wipro Limited has won an IT contract from NSB Group, one of Norways largest transportation groups. MIC Electronics Limited has secured a patent for its LED DigiPoster, which the company maintains is a next generation digital display technology for various applications across the world. The patent is valid up to the year 2028. Mahindra & Mahindra Limited has rebranded its electric mobility portfolio as Mahindra Electric aiming for a greater focus on technology and launch more electric models, besides supplying powertrains to other manufacturers. Indoco Remedies Limited said the US health regulator has inspected its Goa plant and has issued six observations on account of violation of good manufacturing norms. The National Highways Authority of India has awarded a Rs. 8.20 billion highway project in Rajasthan to PNC Infratech Limited. Ashok Leyland Limited and Nissan have decided to part ways in their loss-making light
commercial vehicle joint ventures, which were formed in 2007. Ashok Leyland has decided to buy its partners stake in the JVs floated by the two partners. Vedanta Limited are to convene in Goa for an Extraordinary General Meeting, to discuss the proposed absorption of Cairn India.
� TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK Reserve Bank of India governor Urjit Patel reallocated portfolios between the three deputy governors of the central bank in his first day in charge on Tuesday. In what can be called as his first big decision, Patel entrusted the monetary policy department, financial market operations department and department of economic policy and research to the senior most deputy governor R Gandhi who has also been earlier deputed at the Securities & Exchange Board of India. Central banks are expected to save the world. And if they can make some money along the way for cash-strapped governments, all the better. Take India, where outgoing Governor Raghuram Rajan has been beefing up the country's foreign exchange reserves as a safety net against capital outflows. Income from foreign sources rose 11.5 percent last fiscal year, enabling the Reserve Bank to pay the finance ministry a dividend of about $ 10 billion, matching the previous year's record. That's great timing for the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which just started doling out pay raises to public servants. Yet it's a fraction of the US dividend. The Federal Reserve's $ 4.5 trillion balance sheet helped generate enough profit to pay a record $ 117 billion remittance to the U.S. Treasury—including $ 19.3 billion that Congress wrung out for highways. Other countries enjoy additional sources of income Central banks in South Korea and France pay corporate taxes in addition to dividends. State Bank of India hopes to kick off merger of its associates as well as Bharatiya Mahila Bank with itself by October-end and try to complete the process by March next, making it the 45th largest lender globally in terms of assets. Early August, the central board of State Bank of India had approved the acquisition of all the five associate banks and Bharatiya Mahila Bank and finalised the swap ratios for the merger. "The merger process will start by October-end. The grievance committee will come back to us hopefully by the end of this month, thereafter we have to send it to the Reserve Bank and then to the government for the final approval, which may probably take a month. Post which the merger can take place," SBI chairman Arundhati Bhattacharya told in an interview today.
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