TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY FIFTY : - The Market opened in positive Note on Monday with equity benchmark Nifty 50 up by 29 points or 0.33 percent above at 8712. Indian markets remained upbeat post the passage of the Goods and Services Tax bill even as the benchmark Nifty bounced back from its crucial support area of 8530. Early on Monday morning the Index was poised to open at 8760, a little over half above its previous close of 8706. In line with the market expectations, The Reserve Bank of India kept its Policy rate unchanged. However it declared that it has enough provisions and place to accommodate rate cut in next monetary policy meet. The Nifty traded in the range of 8500-8650. The Nifty resilient at 8700 levels. But despite strong buying by the FII in both cash and derivative segment it is unable to cross 8750 levels. The Crucial Levels for Next Week is 8720-8800 up side and 8600-8550 is down side.
BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty Opened in a Positive Note On Monday up by 61 points or 0.32 percent at 18986. Governor Rajan was concerned that banks were not in a position to pass on the complete benefits of lower interest rates to the consumers as their balance sheets have been heavily dented by high NPA margins. However at the same time he was confident that banks may soon clear up their balance sheet and then pass on the benefits to the end user. Finding banks working under the fear of CBI and CVC as "bizzare", a Parliamentary panel has asked lenders to take decision on financing of stressed assets as per their "own wisdom" and on the basis of the project's viability. Finding that total NPAs of Rs 2.6 lakh crore may go up to Rs 4 lakh crore on account of defaulting infrastructure projects, banks can be empowered to make recovery of bad debts. The Crucial Levels for Bank Nifty is 19150-19300 up side and 18700-18850 is down side.
Tuesday, 16 August 2016
TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY DAILY
R2
R1
8877 WEEKLY
8715
R2
R1
9234
8826
R2
R1
S2
8553
PP
8716
R2
S1
8634
R1
8878 MONTHLY
PP
8635 PP 8622
8391
S1
S2
8554
8392
S1
S2
8418
8010
BANK NIFTY DAILY
PP
S1
S2
18937
18717
18277
R1
PP
S1
S2
19158
18938
18718
18278
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
20689
19437
18811
18185
16933
100 DAYS
200 DAYS
19597 WEEKLY
19157
R2 19598
MONTHLY
MOVING AVERAGE
21 DAYS
50 DAYS
NIFTY
8625
8428
8141
7886
BANK NIFTY
18907
18351
17451
16727
PARABOLIC SAR
DAILY
WEEKLY
MONTHLY
NIFTY
8792
8153
7137
BANK NIFTY
19025
18350
13975
PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied the Bollinger Band Along with Parabolic SAR, both the indicators give the early indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market. The uses of Bollinger Band varies from traders to traders Some buy when it break the middle Band on upper Side and some buy after the break out of Upper band from down respectively. On the Above given Chart of Nifty earlier it has touched the Upper Band but was not able to break the level of strong resistance of 8700. Now it seems that trend has reverse into the Consolidation in the Daily Chart has Formed the Bullish candle which is also the signal of market reversal. If the Nifty is able to Break the 8680 level we could see some positive trend for upcoming week, break below 8700 could touch the level of 8880 in upcoming week. The Crucial levels for Nifty is 86508600 down side and 8700-8750 is Upside.
PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the Bollinger Band along with the Parabolic , both the indicators give the early indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market. Thus uses of Bollinger Band varies from traders to traders Some buy when it break the middle Band on upper Side and some buy after the break out of Upper band from down. On the above given Chart we could see that the price is near the middle Band if it is able to sustain the middle Band level it could lead the Bank Nifty in bull side in upcoming week. Break below middle Band which is around 19150 could lead the Bank Nifty toward the level of 19400 in Near-Term the crucial level for Bank Nifty is 18850-18570 down side and 19200-19450 is Upside.
NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS COMPANY NAME
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
ACC
EQ
1682
1667
1644
1629
1606
ALBK AMBUJACEM ASIAN PAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBARODA BANKINDIA BHEL BHARTIARTL CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK ITC INDUSIND BANK INFY JINDALSTEL KOTAKBANK LT M&M MRF MARUTI ONGC ORIENTBANK RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SBIN SSLT( VEDL) SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL UNIONBANK
EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ
79 268 1177 608 2934 156 124 140 351 532 341 165 3043 380 4905 847 1404 1243 3350 152 957 251 258 1190 1085 83 776 1519 1503 37205 4988 237 120 50 447 1057 592 51 276 168 841 527 77 383 136
77 266 1157 599 2901 153 119 139 349 524 339 164 3027 377 4933 830 1393 1236 3325 149 946 248 256 1182 1074 82 769 1505 1477 36667 4943 235 117 49 442 1046 586 51 262 166 820 522 76 378 132
74 263 1141 584 2870 148 110 138 346 518 337 162 3005 374 4844 818 1372 1227 3285 146 925 244 253 1171 1067 81 764 1492 1450 36333 4895 232 111 48 437 1031 578 50 252 165 805 514 74 373 127
72 261 1121 576 2837 145 1105 137 344 508 335 161 2989 374 4672 802 1365 1220 3260 143 915 242 248 1163 1053 79 758 1472 1424 35795 4850 230 108 46 432 1020 572 50 238 163 785 508 73 369 124
69 259 1105 561 2806 142 96 136 342 502 329 159 2967 367 4583 790 1341 1212 3220 139 902 238 245 1153 1039 78 753 1464 1397 35461 4802 228 102 45 428 1006 565 49 229 160 770 500 72 365 119
TOP 15 ACHIEVERS SR.NO
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
PREV CLOSE
SCRIPT NAME
CMP
ADANI PORTS
239
270
SBIN
235
243
HINDALCO
146
151
POWER GRID CO
176
181
YES BANK
1259
1297
ITC LTD.
247
254
ONGC
229
234
TCS
2650
2700
AXIS BANK LTD.
574
582
TATA POWER CO.
75
76.40
KOTAK BANK
764
772
HDFC
1343
1354
NTPC
159
161
TATA STEEL
375
376.98
L&T
1500
1505
// % CHANGE
+12.62 % +3.59 % +3.07 % +3.07 % +2.97 % +2.71 % +2.34 % +1.88 % +1.53 % +1.46 % +0.97 % +0.83 % +0.78 % +0.43 % +0.23 %
SR.NO
TOP 15 LOOSERS SCRIPT NAME
PREV CLOSE
CMP
% CHANGE
1
GRASIM
5186
4460
-14.00 %
2
BHARTI INFRA
384
349
-9.96 %
3
BANK BARODA
158
147
-6.72 %
4
SUN PHARMA
829
791
-4.58 %
5
AURO PHARMA
763
733
-4.05 %
6
TECH MAHINDRA 502
483
-3.80 %
7
IDEA CELLULAR
93
-3.65 %
8
HERO MOTOCORP 3411
3298
-3.32 %
9
M&M
1480
1436
-2.99 %
10
INFOSYS
1083
1055
-2.54 %
11
WIPRO LTD.
551
537
-2.51 %
12
GAIL LTD.
379
370
-2.40 %
13
ZEEL
512
500
-2.36 %
14
BHARTI AIRTEL
349
341
-2.33 %
15
SUNPHARMA
835.65
834.70
-0.11
97
NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK Economic recovery to accelerate; inflation seen below 5 per cent: Morgan Stanley The country's economic recovery is expected to accelerate in the long-term on the back of rise in purchasing power, consumption growth and monetary policy easing, while inflation is seen below 5 per cent over the next two years, says a Morgan Stanley report. "We believe this will be a longer duration expansion cycle with GDP growth expected to accelerate and inflation expected to remain at or below 5 per cent over the next two years," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. According to the global financial services major, the recovery in the Indian economy will be led by domestic demand, with factors like consumption, public capex and foreign investment playing the key part. Five factors that will drive consumption growth sustainably higher going forward include, sustained moderation in inflation and improvement in purchasing power; trailing monetary policy easing and expectation of more easing; pay commission-related wage hikes for governmentt employees; pick-up in job growth; potential improvement in the rural sector if the weather becomes supportive. According to the global financial services major, the macro environment has seen steady improvement in the last two years, however, the pace of growth recovery has been slower than anticipated. RBI soaking foreign inflows to curb impact on rupee: Raghuram Rajan - India's central bank is trying to prevent the rupee from becoming too volatile by regularly buying dollars when there are inflows from foreign investors, Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Wednesday. Rajan, in a television interview, also said the central bank would likely pay a record-high dividend to the government, which would be onesixth higher than the 699 billion rupees $10.48 billion pencilled into the annual budget unveiled in February. "We are absorbing a fair amount of the inflows," Rajan said, adding that was a reason why foreign exchange reserves have soared recently to a record high. Top 100 borrowers owe PSBs Rs 13.71 lakh crore - Government today said the top 100 borrowers of public sector banks owe nearly Rs 14 lakh crore to them. "The amount outstanding for top 100 borrowers of public sector banks as on March 31, 2016 was Rs 13,71,885 crore," Minister of State for Finance Santosh Kumar Gangwar said in a written reply to Rajya Sabha. The gross non-performing assets of the public sector banks increased Rs 2.16 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs 4.76 lakh crore in 2015-16, he said. Reserve Bank as part of the ongoing supervisory assessment process carried out an Asset
Quality Review excercise to examine the assessment of asset quality at bank's system level and deal with the cases of divergences in identification of NPAs or addition provisioning across banks at the central office level, he said. Besides, it was envisaged to ensure early finalisation and communication of divergence in provisioning giving banks more time to plan the additional provision over the remaining quarters, he said. The wilful defaulters as a percentage of GNPAs as on March 2016 was 16.09 per cent. In another reply Gangwar said NPAs of the scheduled commercial banks have risen from 5.43 per cent in March 2015 to 9.32 per cent in March 2016. Japan to invest USD 25 billion in India: Suresh Prabhu - Noting that Indo-Japan ties have reached a new level, Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu has said that Japan has committed to invest USD 25 billion in India and the country will benefit immensely from the investment. "The relation between India and Japan has never been better. Our bilateral relation has been strengthened and members of parliament have contributed towards it," Prabhu said here while releasing coffee-table book '12 Years of Engaged Leadership: Down the Memory Lane.' The book contains photographs and gist/focus of meetings held during parliamentary delegation visits to Japan. CII and Sasakawa Peace Foundation under Indo-Japan Strategic Dialogue Programme, launched in 2004, take a delegation of MPs every year to Japan. Since its launch, 12 delegations of MPs have visited Japan, making significant contribution in terms of enriching bilateral relationship and strengthening economic, political and cultural ties between the two countries. Industrial production expands 2.1 per cent in June - India's industrial growth edged up to 2.1 per cent in June, an eight-month high, riding a pickup in electricity generation and showing some signs of acceleration ahead. Data released by the statistics office showed an 8.3 per cent increase in electricity production in June and a 4.7 per cent gain in mining output. Manufacturing, the sector with the highest weight in the Index of Industrial Production , grew a marginal 0.9 per cent in the month. May IIP reading was revisedto a 1.13 per cent increase, compared with the 1.2 per cent rise reported earlier. "While the pace of growth still remains low, there was an improvement across the board," ratings firm Crisil said in a note, while forecasting better days ahead. "Above-normal monsoon, which could improve rural demand, along with the lagged impact of interest rate reductions, salary revisions and easier monetary conditions are expected to support demand in future and boostd boost industrial activity," it said, setting an industrial GDP growth target of 7.6 per cent for fiscal 2017, compared with last year's 7.4 per cent expansion. Meeting fiscal deficit target of 3.5% will be a challenge: Government - The
government said in meeting the fiscal deficit target of 3.5% of GDP for the current fiscal will be a challenge because of the additional burden due to the pay commission award even as it reiterated its commitment to cutting fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by FY18. The Indian economy is showing "bright" near-term prospects, the government said in the medium term Expenditure Framework Statement for 2016-2017 presented in Parliament on Friday by finance minister Arun Jaitley. The statement pointed to improved macroeconomic stability because of fiscal prudence and lower inflation helped by moderation in crude prices. It said major subsidies are expected to decline gradually from 1.5% of GDP in FY17 to 1.4% in FY18 and further to 1.3% in FY19. The fiscal deficit target for FY18 and FY19 remain unchanged at 3% of GDP. Retail inflation crosses 6% mark, at two year high of 6.07 per cent in July - Retail inflation accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace to touch a two-year high in July, driven by costlier food. It also crossed the target set by the government earlier this month for consumer inflation. The Consumer Price Index, the gauge of inflation at the retail level, rose to 6.07% in July, much above the Reserve Bank of India's target of 5% by March 2017, presenting a big challenge for the new governor who will succeed Raghuram Rajan at the central bank next month. The CPI was 5.77% in June, while the median analyst expectation for the current month was 5.9%. The rise rules out monetary easing any time soon, though most experts expect inflation to ease going ahead and an at least quarter percentage point reduction in interest rates in the rest of the financial year through March 2017.
� TOP ECONOMY NEWS The passing of the Constitution One Hundred and Twenty Second Amendment Bill, 2014 relating to Goods & Services Tax by huge consensus in the Rajya Sabha was the hallmark of the third week of Monsoon Session of Parliament. The amendments made by Rajya Sabha in the Constitution One Hundred and Twenty Second Amendment Bill, 2016 as passed by Lok Sabha and as reported by the Select Committee of Rajya Sabha, have been now laid on the Table of the Lok Sabha and will be taken up by the House next week. From the perspective of India’s travel services sector, currently saddled with multiple taxes, levied by both the center and the states, optimization of taxes and ease of doing business has been the key ask of our industry and hence the GST bill passage even more welcome!
Under the GST regime, it is expected that supplies of hotels and restaurants, a major cost component of tour services, will be subjected to a single tax, resulting in fungibility, reduction in the cascading effect of taxes and hence increased cost efficiencies to benefit travellers. However, for this benefit to play out effectively, it is necessary that all the B2B supplies are made fully creditable and the credit flow is seamless across the states. This aspect will probably require some deliberations. Under the unaltered inflation targeting framework, ICRA expects lower CPI inflation in H2 FY2017 to create space for additional monetary easing of 25 bps in 2016, regardless of the imminent appointment of the MPC and a new RBI Governor. RBI's inflation target of 5% seems to be on track, unless things turn sour. The dramatic run-up in recent CPI inflation is mainly driven by food. But if rains continue to be strong in August, taking reservoir levels to above normal, the 110 bp fresh food price rise and the 40bp excess pulse inflation could reverse, taking inflation from 6.5% now, to RBI's target of 5% by early 2017. Meanwhile, although core prices fell noticeably in June, the trend may not last because PMI Manufacturing corporate margins have begun to rise back up in July as producers have started to raise output prices. In short, food prices will have to do all the hard work. While waiting for rains to unfold, the RBI is expected to be on hold in the upcoming 9 August policy meeting; while still holding on to the accommodative commentary. We expect issues such as liquidity returning to normal but lack of commensurate monetary transmission and structural reforms that aid further disinflation to be discussed during governor Rajan's last monetary policy as RBI governor. We expect a final 25bp rate cut in 4Q if rains are sufficient. CPI inflation increased to 6.07% in July 2016 new base 2012=100, compared with 5.77% in June 2016. The Wholesale Price Index based inflation for June 2016 surged 1.62% from a level of 0.79 % in the previous month. The Reserve Bank of India will transfer Rs. 658.76 billion surplus as dividend to the government for 2015-16, Rs. 200 million less than the previous year's Rs. 658.96 billion. Drilling holes into government claims of huge subsidy savings from direct benefit transfer, the CAG said only Rs. 17.64 billion in subsidy was saved on LPG on account of the scheme and the bulk of Rs. 215.52 billion was due to sharp fall in global prices. The Department of Telecom has ‘suspended’ spectrum sharing, trading and liberalisation activities till the provisional results of the upcoming spectrum auction are declared.
Foreign investment will now be able to flow into financial services such as commodity broking and other such areas not covered in the 18 areas specified for non-banking financial companies. Government approved Rs15.54bn R&D project to develop advanced ultra super critical technology for thermal power plants, a move that would ensure energy security. Petrol price was cut by Rs. 1.42/l and diesel by Rs. 2.01/l, the third reduction in rates this month on global cues Foreign direct investment inflows grew 7% to USD10.55bn during the first quarter against USD9.88bn in Jan-Mar 2015. Overseas investors have infused over Rs126bn into country's equity markets this month, making it highest inflow in four months on rising hopes of passage of the GST Bill.
� TOP CORPORATE NEWS Escorts announced the divestment of its OEM and export business of auto products division to Pune’s Badve Engineering. The company, however, did not disclose the deal size. GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd has said it is hopeful of bagging the mandate to develop the Navi Mumbai greenfield airport project. GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd said it was in advanced stage of negotiations to sell one of its BOT road projects as part of its ongoing efforts to reduce the debt levels. Oil and Natural Gas Corp and its partners will invest Rs8.23bn to produce natural gas from coal seams of its Bokaro block in Jharkhand from 2017-18. Aurobindo Pharma will set up a facility to manufacture 50mn dosages of vaccines Per Annum as it plans to launch its vaccine products commercially in 2018. In a big blow to Infosys Limited, the Royal Bank of Scotland has canceled a major contract that will impact as many as 3,000 of Infosys employees and impact revenues for
the year by about USD 40 million. Yes Bank Limited plans to raise USD 1 billion about Rs. 68.85 billion through QIP in the next 7 months for which it has started engagement with large investors across geographies. Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited has started an 'Innovation Lab' in Bengaluru to tap into the best technology that impacts its operations, and is open to investing in start ups. Hindustan Copper Limited has inaugurated the country's first facility to produce nickel, a metal for which the country is completely dependent on imports. The new facility-Nickel, Copper and Acid Recovery Plant is located at the company's Indian Copper Complex at Ghatshila in Jharkhand. Maruti Suzuki India plans to bring more products with hybrid technology over the next few years as concern for safeguarding environment increases in India. Hindalco's Industries Limited Novelis unit will launch a bond sale in the US to raise as much as USD 1.1 billion to refinance debt. Rivigo has ordered 1,200 medium and heavy commercial vehicles from Ashok Leyland Limited for its pan-India fleet. Bharti Airtel announced launch of 4G service in Kharagpur, becoming the first operator to unveil the service in Bengal telecom circle using dual spectrum bands of 2300MHz and 1800MHz. Thermax Limited said it plans to made an additional investment of up to Rs. 60 million in First Energy Pvt Ltd, alternative energy solutions company. Infosys Limited, India's second largest software firm has built an internal predictive analytics tool that identifies top performers, measure organisation health and look at potential talent that is exploring outside to help retain them. Niti Aayog has identified some of the subsidiaries of the Steel Authority of India Limited for strategic sale. Rane Engine Valve Limited has sold its 6.8 acres in Alandur, Chennai, for Rs. 948 million.
� TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK State-run lenders may offer concessional finance to private companies bidding for key projects abroad as part of a strategy to step up strategic investment overseas. The government is considering a mechanism to ensure the viability of such lending, said officials aware of the matter. "A committee will be formed with the finance ministry which will look into the issue," one of them said. "Infrastructure projects in those countries where India has both strategic and economic interest will be given preference." Panel members will include the deputy national security adviser and officials from other ministries including external affairs and commerce. Finding banks working under the fear of CBI and CVC as "bizzare", a Parliamentary panel has asked lenders to take decision on financing of stressed assets as per their "own wisdom" and on the basis of the project's viability. Finding that total NPAs of Rs 2.6 lakh crore may go up to Rs 4 lakh crore on account of defaulting infrastructure projects, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Transport, headed by Kanwar Deep Singh, also recommended banks can be empowered to make recovery of bad debts. The stock market may have given the thumbs up to the State Bank of India for its first quarter results, but some analysts said that investors must beware of hidden bad loans that may emerge once the government appoints a new chief at the state-run lender in October. SBI's shares gained 7.16% on the National Stock Exchange to close at Rs 243.20 on Friday after it declared lower-than-estimated bad loans in the quarter to June.
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