TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY FIFTY : -
The Equity benchmark Nifty opened flat on Monday down by 5 points
or 0.05 percent at 8710. After a splendid rally last week that pushed Nifty towards 9000 levels, profit booking was seen on the last trading day with both banking as well as IT stocks correcting significantly. With a sharp nosedive in US markets on Friday night due to both North Korean missile test and US FED rate hike concerns, recent global market rally comes to an intermediate pause at least for the time being. Midway through the September F&O series. The benchmark Nifty has Corrected by over 250 points, Already from its high of 8995. FII and pros have been seller in F&O as well as cash market in this week. The Nifty traded flat amid talk of Rupee devaluation and tepid Global cues. The Nifty chart suggesting that , Nifty to sustain crucial Support level of 8700-8780 area For further rally up to 8870-8800 zone. The crucial levels for Nifty is 8700-8640 down side and 8880-8920 is Up Side. BANK NIFTY : - The
Bank Nifty has opened in a negative bias down by 33 points or 0.17
per cent at 19757. Consecutive closing above 21200 for any reason, Whatsoever Bank Nifty may further rally upto 20750-21900 in near to mid term. The Fundamental Valuation of Bank Nifty P/E around 30.33 and it goes around 23500 level, it may be quite expensive. Bank Nifty is facing a big hurdle at 20540-20750 despite power of liquidity, Sustain below 20200- may drag it 18900 in near term. The Reserve Bank of India has instructed banks to accept cash deposits at the counter from people declaring unaccounted wealth under the Income Declaration Scheme. The Bank Nifty Chart is Suggesting the range of 19560-20300. The Crucial Level for Nifty is 19800-19650 down side and 2015020280 is up side.
Monday, 19 September 2016
TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY DAILY
WEEKLY
MONTHLY
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
9081
8891
8796
8701
8511
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
9247
8933
8776
8619
8305
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
9644
9090
8813
8536
7982
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
21276
20400
19962
19524
18648
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
21424
20438
19945
19452
18466
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
22576
20896
20056
19216
BANK NIFTY DAILY
WEEKLY
MONTHLY
MOVING AVERAGE
21 DAYS
50 DAYS
NIFTY
8777
-
100 DAYS
200 DAYS
-
-
BANK NIFTY
19791
PARABOLIC SAR
DAILY
17536
-
-
WEEKLY
-
MONTHLY
NIFTY
8651
8450
8375
BANK NIFTY
19091
18383
18158
PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied the Bollinger Band Along with Parabolic SAR, both the indicators give early indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market. Along with that the Nifty dalily Chart is Froming the Gap Down Pattern Which is the reversal trend Signal. As we have seen in last week the Nifty is traded in the range of 8660-8995 Levels. Now it seems that trend could be reversal into the bearish Side in the Daily Chart has Formed the Bearish Gap Down candle which is also the signal of bear market. If the Nifty is breaking the levels of 8800-8660 level we could witness the level of 8580-8780 in near Term. Move Toward the 8800 levels in upcoming will lead the Nifty to break the level of 8900-8980. The Crucial levels for Nifty is 8780-8750 down side and 8840-8880 is Upside.
PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the Bollinger Band along with the Parabolic , The Usage of bollinger Band differ from Trader-to-Trader indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market respectively. Thus the Bank Nifty Chart also formed the hanging man kind of pattern. Kind of Pattern which is a Bearish signal for market, from this Point we are Expecting if Bank Nifty Consolidate Upcoming week. Then it would touch the level of 19950-20250 in Near-Term. If we look into the Fundmaentals of Bank Nifty there are some action is taken to overcome the NPA issue of Public Sector Bank. The Important levels for Bank Nifty is 20180 - 19750 down side and 2380-20460 is up side.
NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS COMPANY NAME
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
ACC
EQ
1650
1636
1624
1610
1598
ALBK AMBUJACEM ASIAN PAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBARODA BANKINDIA BHEL BHARTIARTL CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK ITC INDUSIND BANK INFY JINDALSTEL KOTAKBANK LT M&M MRF MARUTI ONGC ORIENTBANK RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SBIN SSLT( VEDL) SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL UNIONBANK
EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ
86 268 1192 621 3081 174 125 156 328 606 329 151 3192 398 4950 799 1425 1317 3708 149 934 278 267 1210 1078 87 824 1510 1444 41924 8357 255 134 51 588 1110 1109 54 266 172 799 577 77 376 150
83 265 1174 611 3033 169 121 151 326 600 327 148 3170 394 4903 791 1411 1309 3650 146 922 273 264 1190 1067 84 815 1491 1428 41514 6948 253 129 50 571 1092 1090 53 260 167 791 563 76 368 145
82 263 1163 601 2982 167 118 148 323 591 325 147 3155 390 4827 783 1403 1296 3585 144 915 269 260 1175 1052 83 809 1479 1414 41308 6211 250 127 49 561 1076 1075 52 257 163 786 555 75 362 143
79 260 1145 591 2934 162 114 143 321 585 323 144 3133 386 4780 775 1389 1288 3527 141 903 264 257 1155 1041 80 800 1460 1398 40898 4802 248 122 48 544 1058 1056 51 251 158 778 541 74 354 138
78 258 1134 581 2883 160 111 140 318 576 321 143 3118 382 4704 767 1381 1275 3462 139 896 260 253 1140 1026 79 794 1448 1384 40692 4065 245 120 47 534 1042 1041 50 248 154 773 533 73 348 136
TOP 15 ACHIEVERS SR.NO
1 2
SCRIPT NAME
PREV CLOSE
CMP
MBL INFRA
91.60
111.20
KIRI INDUSTRIES
282
337
ZEE MEDIA CORP
25.30
29.00
WELSPUN ENTER.
57.20
64.40
INOX WIND LTD
179
199
VAKRANGEE
206
224
MARUTI SUZUKI
5403
5573
GRASIM INDUS
4706
4853
RELIANCE
1044
1075
INFOSYS
1035
1060
11 12
CIPLA
580
593
13 14
TECH MAHINDRA
458
465
ITC LIMITED
258
260
HDFC BANK
1290
1297
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
// % CHANGE
+21.40 % +19.16 % +14.62 % +12.59 % +11.14 % +8.39 % +3.17 % +3.12 % +2.97 % +2.38 % +2.25 %
IDEA CELLULAR 83.60 85.15 +1.85 % NEXT WEEK STARS( AS ANALYSIS +1.53 %
15
NSE FUTURE
+0.79 % +0.58 %
SR.NO
TOP 15 LOOSERS SCRIPT NAME
PREV CLOSE
CMP
% CHANGE
1
TATA STEEL
394
358
-9.06 %
2
YES BANK LTD.
1276
1169
-8.34 %
3
HINDALCO
154
142
-7.88 %
4
BHEL
154
146
-4.80 %
5
M&M
1472
1406
-4.47 %
6
TATA MOTORS
573
548
-4.28 %
7
POWER GRID
183
176
-4.22 %
8
BANK BARODA
171
164
-4.19 %
9
INDUSIND BANK
1217
1169
-3.94 %
10
AMBUJA CEMENT 272
262
-3.76 %
11
SBIN
264
254
-3.71 %
12
NTPC
158
153
-3.62 %
13
L&T
1517
1473
-2.93 %
14
ZEEL
533
519
-2.62 %
15
ICICI BANK
274
267
-2.46 %
NSE FUTURE NSE FUTURE : BUY MCLEODRUSSEL FUTURE ABOVE 187 TGT 195 SL 183 NSE FUTURE : SELL JUSTDIAL FUTURE BELOW 468 TGT 450 SL 480 NSE FUTURE : BUY TATAGLOBAL FUTURE ABOVE 141 TGT 147 SL 138
NSE CASH NSE CASH
: BUY DISHTV NSE CASH ABOVE 103 TGT 112 SL 99.
NSE CASH
: BUY BODALCHEM NSE CASH ABOVE 141 TGT 154 SL 136.
NSE CASH
: BUY DHFL NSE CASH ABOVE 297 TGT 321 SL 291.
NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK India’s Direct tax mop-up rises 15 % in Apr-Agust - The figures for Direct Tax Collections up to August, 2016 show that net revenue collections are at Rs. 1.89 lakh crore which is 15.03% more than the net collections for the corresponding period last year. Till August 2016, 22.30% of the Budget Estimates of direct taxes for Financial Year 2016-17 has been achieved. As regards the growth rates for Corporate Income Tax and Personal Income Tax, in terms of gross revenue collections, the growth rate under CIT is 11.55% while that under PIT is 24.06 %. However, after adjusting for refunds, the net growth in CIT collections is (-)1.89% while that in PIT collections is 31.76%. Refunds amounting to Rs. 77,080 crore have been issued during April - August, 2016, which is 22.18 % higher than the refunds issued during the corresponding period last year. The figures for indirect tax collections upto August 2016 show that net revenue collections are at Rs. 3.36 lakh crore which is 27.5% more than the net collections for the corresponding period last year. Till August 2016, 43.2% of the Budget Estimates of indirect taxes for Financial Year 2016-17 has been achieved. As regards Central Excise, net tax collections stood at Rs.1.53 lakh crore during April-August, 2016 as compared to Rs.1.03 lakh crore during the corresponding period in the previous Financial Year, thereby registering a growth of 48.8%. India is Likely to post its first current account surplus in nine Years - India is likely to post its first current account surplus in nine years in the latest quarter, which should bolster the rupee though it is not a good sign for the economy as it reflects weak investment demand at home and subdued exports, analysts said. Forecasts given by investment houses' research notes and from analysts that Reuters spoke to showed expectations centering on a surplus INCURA=ECI of $ 4 billion, or 0.8 percent of GDP, in April-June quarter. That compared with a deficit of $ 6.2 billion, equivalent to 1.2 percent of GDP, in the same quarter a year ago. And, if the forecasts prove correct it will be the first surplus since January-March 2007, though India is unlikely to keep the surpluses coming. For the full year ending in March 2017, India is likely to post a deficit even lower than last year's 1.1 percent of GDP, as foreign investment inflows remain steady - and that should be broadly supportive for the rupee. Analysts have revised down their forecasts for the 2016/17 deficit to below 1.0 percent from earlier projections of between 1.2-1.5 percent. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to release the June quarter data this month. For a developing economy like India slow import growth is a negative sign, as it reflects weak investment demand because Indian firms need to buy
capital goods and machinery from abroad. That weakness in the economy, it could persuade the RBI to keep liquidity easy for now. The RBI is also unlikely to let the rupee strengthen too much, and any central bank action to take dollars out of the market will add to rupee liquidity. "The improvement in current account deficit is definitely positive for the rupee." so far as the RBI is concerned, as it is a reflection of weak investment demand which is impacting the pick up in imports."Trade data released last month showed imports fell 16.33 percent to $ 114 billion in the four months through July thanks to lower gold and oil import bills, while exports fell 3.62 percent to $ 87 billion.
India's August WPI at 3.74% Food Articles Inflation at 8.23% - The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 3.74% provisional for the month of August, 2016 over August, 2015 as compared to 3.55% for the previous month and -5.06% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 4.45% compared to a build up rate of 0.23% in the corresponding period of the previous year. The index for this major group declined by 0.2 percent to 268.9 provisional from 269.5 provisiona for the previous month. The index for ‘Food Articles’ group declined by 0.6 percent to 284.2 from 285.8. The index for ‘Non-Food Articles’ group declined by 0.1 percent to 236.3 from 236.6 for the previous month. Softening trend in inflation leaves door open for rate cut : DBS - The RBI may consider chopping interest rate in the coming three months as inflation may slip below 5 per cent during September-December period, before inching up in the following quarter, says a report. According to global financial services major DBS, the softening trend in inflation leaves the door open for a rate cut in the fourth quarter of this calender year "with odds of a move in October on the rise". A benign inflation path going forward and likelihood of a dovish policy committee leaves the door open for further easing but this needs to be balanced off with firmer demand dynamics and risks of US rate normalisation as the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting approaches," DBS said in a research note. The next RBI policy review meet is scheduled for October 4. It would also be the first review under the new RBI Governor Urjit Patel, who assumed charge on September Arun Jaitley reviews quarterly performance of PSBs and FIs - The Union Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley will hold a Quarterly Performance Review Meeting with the Chief Executive Officers and Managing Directors of Public Sector Banks and Financial Institutions in the national capital tomorrow. During the one day Meeting, the Finance Minister Jaitley will review the overall Performance of PSBs in the current Financial
Year and last quarter in particular. The Finance Minister will review the progress of credit and growth and asset quality especially with regard to Priority sectors lending including credit flow to Agriculture and Insurance Sector, MSE, Minorities, SC & ST, Education and Housing Loan among others. The progress made in the various Social Sector Schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana , Pradhan Mantri Surkasha Bima Yojana and Atal Pension Yojana as well as in case of Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana , Stand-Up India and MUDRA Schemes will also be reviewed during the aforesaid meeting. The issues relating to financial inclusion and literacy as well as Non Performing Assets are also likely to be discussed during the one day meeting. Along with the CEOs of PSBs and FIs, the meeting will also be attended by Santosh Kumar Gangwar, Minister of State for Finance, Arjun Ram Meghwal, Minister of State for Finance & Corporate Affairs, Anjuly Chib Duggal, Secretary, Department of Financial Services , Dr Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Adviser and senior officers of the Ministry of Finance among others. High growth rate mandatory for collective well being: Arun Jaitley - A high growth rate is a requisite if the benefits of growth are to percolate down to the last man, especially minorities. Post 1991 economic liberalization, the acceleration of growth rate has led to substantial reduction in poverty. All communities have shown reduction in poverty levels, however on an uneven basis, says Union Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, speaking at a Conference on Empowerment through Education – ‘Taalim-o-Tarbiyat’ in Mumbai. While higher growth rate impacts all by way of offering economic opportunities, certain minorities have lagged behind and those areas need to be addressed. Despite the poverty rate among Muslim community declining from 52% in 1991 to about 27% in 2011, some communities like Jains and Parsis have overcome the challenge of poverty, he said. Jaitley said education is the key to improve the conditions faster which would aid conversion of skills into opportunities. Madarasa is an important institution in imparting education for children of Muslim community and complimented the efforts of leaders like Zafar Sareshwala, for blending technology and traditional teachings, he said.
✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS State-owned banks looking forward to the next round of capital infusion will need to fulfill a new set of criteria, including credit recovery, as the Finance Ministry has revised the recapitalisation norms. The Cellular Operators Association of India , the industry body representing all GSM
operators, was asked to leave the meeting called by the telecom regulator to resolve the issue of interconnect. India's annual consumer price inflation eased to 5.05% in August, helped by smaller rises in food prices. Industrial output in July dipped by 2.4% dragged down by poor performance of mining and manufacturing sector. Data released revealed that the mining sector grew by 2% while the manufacturing output declined by 1.4%. Net direct tax collections during the April-August period has grown 15.03 % to Rs. 1.89 trillion, led by robust collections in personal income tax. Net indirect tax collections in the April-August period grew 27.5% to Rs. 3.36 trillion on the back of surge in excise collections. Following presidential assent last week to the GST Bill, the Union Finance Ministry notified the provisions of the Constitution Amendment Act that allows for setting up the Goods and Services Tax Council. India’s decision to offer duty concessions on about a fourth of its traded goods to the members of the Asia Pacific Trade Agreement — China, Bangladesh, Lao, South Korea and Sri Lanka — was approved by the Union Cabinet. India’s Wholesale inflation soared to a two-year high of 3.74% in August as pulses and manufactured items showed an uptick in prices even as vegetable prices witnessed some moderation. The National Highways Authority of India , which proposes to award road works worth Rs. 1 trillion by the end of the current financial year, has received an offer from a global pension fund to provide Rs. 300 billion rupee loan at 5.5-6% interest rate. Road Ministry and National Highways Authority of India will together take up 82 highway projects under the ambitious Bharatmala project in order to improve port connectivity.
� TOP CORPORATE NEWS Tata Steel Limited had urged Chhattisgarh government to return the money it had deposited for purchasing land in Bastar where company had planned to set up mega steel plant. Indian Oil Corporation might hold 50% in a refinery being planned on the west coast if Saudi Arabia and Kuwait do not take up the offer of an equity stake. Wipro Limited has won an IT contract from NSB Group, one of Norways largest transportation groups. MIC Electronics Limited has secured a patent for its LED DigiPoster, which the company maintains is a next generation digital display technology for various applications across the world. The patent is valid up to the year 2028. Mahindra & Mahindra Limited has rebranded its electric mobility portfolio as Mahindra Electric aiming for a greater focus on technology and launch more electric models, besides supplying powertrains to other manufacturers. Indoco Remedies Limited said the US health regulator has inspected its Goa plant and has issued six observations on account of violation of good manufacturing norms. The National Highways Authority of India has awarded a Rs. 8.20 billion highway project in Rajasthan to PNC Infratech limited. Ashok Leyland Limited and Nissan have decided to part ways in their loss-making light commercial vehicle joint ventures, which were formed in 2007. Ashok Leyland has decided to buy its partners stake in the JVs floated by the two partners. Vedanta Limited are to convene in Goa for an Extraordinary General Meeting , to discuss the proposed absorption of Cairn India. Coal India Limited has surrendered exploratory blocks in Mozambique after failing to find mineable coal in them. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited shut a unit at its 130,000 bpd refinery in
Mumbai last week due to a technical glitch, and has since been importing gasoline. Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Limited has raised Rs. 100 billion by allotting NCDs to successful applicants. A final decision on the much-delayed Rajasthan refinery, to be set up by Hindustan Petroleum Corporation for an estimated over Rs. 370 billion, but has run into a political quagmire, is expected within a few months. As part of the disinvestment process, Engineers India Limited will sell part of the government stake to its eligible employees at a discounted price of Rs. 187.29 /unit, a move that will fetch about Rs. 315 million to the exchequer. Tata Motors Limited has launched its first product, a versatile mini-truck SuperAce, in Vietnam. DLF Limited will invest about Rs. 5 billion to develop an IT Park in Chennai as the commercial real estate market has picked up in major cities. PI Industries Limited is looking to foray into the pharma sector for manufacturing and export of early intermediates. The Delhi High Court has granted an opportunity to Unitech Limited to complete its delayed housing projects and hand over possession of flats to buyers by opening escrow accounts and using the money deposited in it solely for these projects. Redington India Limited, distributors for Apple in the country, said that the company will start offering the new iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus, beginning on October 7. Prestige Estates Projects that recently bought back CapitaLands stake in a mall project in Bangalore, is converting it into a IT business park due to lower supply in this segment. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals announced receipt of final approval from US health regulator for its generic version of AstraZeneca's Xylocaine ointment. Paving the way for stake sale in its commercial finance unit with a loan portfolio of about Rs. 165 billion, Reliance Capital has got shareholders’ approval for the transfer of this business to a separate company.
Mahindra CIE Automotive is reportedly all set to acquire Bill Forge, for about USD 200 million, or Rs 13 billion. The government has decided to task central public sector undertakings including NMDC, NTPC and SAIL with pushing mineral exploration in India. Repco Home Finance Limited has raised up to Rs. 2 billion by issuing non-convertible debentures on private placement basis. The coal ministry has released Rs. 780 million compensation to seven firms including GMR Energy, Hindalco, Neyveli Lignite Corp and Singareni Collieries Company. Indiabulls Housing Finance is planning to restructure its long-term loan portfolio to bring down the average cost of borrowing for the company by 30-40bps. Hindustan Construction Company has bagged order worth Rs. 1.82 billion from the Department of Atomic Energy to build premium highrise residential towers at Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu. This is an item rate contract to be completed in 30 months. Manappuram Finance has raised Rs. 2 billion through issuance of secured redeemable non-convertible debentures on a private placement basis to ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund.
� TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK The Competition Commission of India is likely to complete its probe into alleged cartelisation by state-run banks within two months, according to a senior official. The competition watchdog is investigating whether public sectors banks, which together control nearly three quarters of the country's banking business, are conniving to keep the interest rates on savings accounts low at about 4% when private sector lenders are offering more. Imagine being able to avail a home loan almost as easily as obtaining a loan for buying white goods in an appliance store. Or, having a refund credited to your account within minutes of a failed transaction or cancellation. This would be possible once banks begin
to use the underlying technology of bitcoins called blockchain. Today, bankers spend much of their energies in establishing contracts, ascertaining identity and going through records to check whether a certain transaction did take place in the past. The technology that has the potential to address these problems is blockchain — an electronic public ledger that records virtual currency transactions which cannot be tweaked or deleted. After being seen as a challenger to traditional payments, the bitcoin threat wore off following the collapse of a bitcoin exchange. Ironically, while bitcoin's key feature is the anonymity it provides owners, blockchain's killer application is provenance. State Bank of India Chairman Arundhati Bhattacharya looks set to get an extension for six months to oversee the merger of its five associate banks with the parent. Bhattacharya's term is due to end next month and an extension is seen as a compensation for her not being appointed Sebi chairman, although she was especially called for an interaction by a panel headed by the cabinet secretary. Sources said the government is working on extending her term at a time when the country's largest lender, which controls around a quarter of the market, is grappling with over Rs. 1 lakh crore of bad debt. State Bank of India is also dealing with the complicated task of merging its five remaining associate banks -State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur, State Bank of Hyderabad, State Bank of Mysore, State Bank of Patiala and State Bank of Travancore -with itself along with Bharatiya Mahila Bank, the government's experiment with a women-focused lender which has not made any headway . State Bank of India Chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya says a 25 basis points cut in interest rates was in the offing and that an improvement in the financial health of India's banking sector was closely linked to the overall performance of the economy. In an interview to IANS, the 60-year-old banker also said the four per cent inflation target fixed by the government is a tad low in an emerging economy like India where food inflation has rarely fallen below six per cent in the past 60 years. Nonetheless, she felt the current inflation level is set to fall due to a statistical play that could pave the way for a cut in interest rates by commercial banks -- which the central bank has been asking for, as and when it has itself cut interest rates. The Reserve Bank of India has instructed banks to accept cash deposits at the counter from people declaring unaccounted wealth under the Income Declaration Scheme, an official statement said here on Friday. "The RBI has on September 8 instructed the banks to invariably accept cash deposits from all the declarants under the Scheme and to accept cash deposits, irrespective of amount, over the counters, for making payment," a Finance Ministry statement said.
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