TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY FIFTY : -
The Equity benchmark Nifty 50 oscillated between bulls and bears, as
after a gap up opening, on Monday with marginal gains of 9 points or 0.10 percent at 8788. Nifty was up by 90 points before selling crept in Nifty fell by 100 points from its Intraday high of 8878 before stabilizing to close at 8809 up by 35 points. Incremental Policy reforms and transmission of rate cuts that scenario , The Nifty target around 92009300. The Fundamental aspect of Nifty P/E stood around 24.65. If we assume 18 per cent Compound Annual Growth rate for now, Then EPS may come around 431 and the fair value of Nifty is around 6900-9300 by this month. Federal Reserve chair Jennet Yellen was dovish in her Assessment of short-term rate hike. With an expectation no hike US FED has delivered a moderate stand on economy , growth , US FED said. Economic Activity has picked up and job gained were solid in recent month signalized the possibility of year end rate hike. Looking ahead Nifty has to sustain over 8925-8725 zone for further rally up-to 8995-9060. The Crucial Level is 8820-8780 down side and 89258975 is up side. BANK NIFTY : -
The Bank Nifty Opened on flat note on Monday up by 35 points or 0.17
per cent at 19892. The Bank Nifty was in bigger fall of 400 points from intraday high of 20240 to 19830 on Monday trading session. Banking stocks were out performer along with strong participation from Public Sector Banks. Although the Private sector banks remain the best performer from the last 3-4 week , From This level the Index has strong support around 19720 and sustaining from last 17 trading sessions. The Sustaining above 19720-19980 zone Index will move toward 20500-20800 in near Term. The Bank Nifty Chart suggesting if it is able to sustain the level of 19800 level for Next week sessions, the next hurdle for Bank Nifty would be around 20540 or break below 19800 could lead toward 19500 level. Crucial Level for Bank Nifty is 20478-20985 up side or 1968219464 is down side.
Monday, 26 September 2016
TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY DAILY
WEEKLY
MONTHLY
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
9030
8906
8844
8782
8658
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
9226
8960
8827
8694
8428
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
9660
9106
8829
8552
7998
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
20869
20451
20242
20033
19615
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
21872
20818
20291
19764
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
22693
21025
20191
19357
17689
100 DAYS
200 DAYS
BANK NIFTY DAILY WEEKLY
MONTHLY
MOVING AVERAGE
21 DAYS
NIFTY
8805
8736
-
-
BANK NIFTY
19925
18450
-
-
PARABOLIC SAR
DAILY
50 DAYS
18710
WEEKLY
MONTHLY
NIFTY
8674
8452
8375
BANK NIFTY
19240
18430
18158
PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of NIFTY has Applied the Bollinger Band along with Parabolic SAR both are the leading Indicators and Idintify the Bull or Bear Trend, The Uses of Bollinger Band Varies from trader to trader Some buy when it break the Middle Band on up side, and Some buy when it crosses the Upper Band. And the Parabolic SAR is a indication for Either bull Market or Bear. On the above given Chart of NIFTY has break the Middle Band which is a clear indication of Bull Market the important levels for Nifty is 8906-9005 Up side and 8830-8780 is down side Sustaining the level of 8830 will move further up side toward 8900-9005 level.
PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY ) Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the
Bollinger Band along with the Parabolic , The Usage of bollinger Band differ from Trader-to-Trader indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market respectively. Thus the Bank Nifty Chart also Giving Bullish Signal, from this Level we are Expecting if Bank Nifty could lead Toward bulls side Upcoming week. Then it would touch the level of 20448-20945 in Near-Term. If we look into the Fundamental of Bank Nifty the P/E of Bank Nifty is around 27.02 which is in the comfort level for Index , Bank Nifty could take some correction in Short-Term. The levels of Bank Nifty 21450 as per P/E Ratio for Bank Nifty. The Important levels is 19806 - 19640 down side and 20560-20870 is up side. Bank Nifty Chart is Suggesting the Bull Movement could witness good rally in next week in Banking Stocks.
NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS COMPANY NAME
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
ACC
EQ
1690
1655
1638
1603
1586
ALBK AMBUJACEM ASIAN PAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBARODA BANKINDIA BHEL BHARTIARTL CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK ITC INDUSIND BANK INFY JINDALSTEL KOTAKBANK LT M&M MRF MARUTI ONGC ORIENTBANK RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SBIN SSLT( VEDL) SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL UNIONBANK
EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ
84 268 1214 608 2976 174 122 152 333 624 330 163 3206 396 5020 810 1430 1329 3575 157 919 277 260 1242 1064 85 808 1528 1433 47785 5664 265 133 50 604 1120 626 53 260 175 794 561 78 380 150
83 264 1206 586 2957 172 121 149 330 619 329 160 3191 391 4975 805 1426 1323 3556 156 915 274 256 1233 1059 84 802 1514 1421 46741 5634 263 132 49 592 1112 617 52 257 172 786 557 76 376 147
82 262 1196 573 2934 170 119 148 327 611 328 157 3170 389 4931 798 1419 1312 3535 154 908 273 254 1221 1054 82 798 1502 1416 45428 5599 260 131 48 584 1100 612 52 255 170 783 554 76 373 146
81 258 1188 551 2915 168 118 145 324 606 327 154 3155 384 4886 793 1415 1306 3516 153 904 270 250 1212 1049 81 792 1488 1404 44384 5569 258 130 47 572 1092 603 51 252 167 775 550 74 369 143
80 256 1178 538 2892 166 116 144 321 598 326 151 3134 382 4842 786 1408 1295 3495 151 897 269 248 1200 1044 79 788 1476 1199 43071 5534 255 129 46 564 1080 598 51 250 165 772 547 74 366 142
TOP 15 ACHIEVERS SR.NO
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
SCRIPT NAME
PREV CLOSE
CMP
HINDALCO INDUS
142
154
AURO PHARMA
785
837
BHARTI INFRATE
351
372
YES BANK LTD.
1169
1232
BPCL
577
604
INDUSIND BANK
1169
1218
ONGC
250
259
TATA STEEL
358
371
CIPLA
593
612
ASIAN PAINTS
1155
1188
BANK BARODA
164
169
NTPC
153
156
RELIANCE
1075
1101
HDFC
1397
1425
L&T
1473
1497
// % CHANGE
+8.24 %
SR.NO
TOP 15 LOOSERS SCRIPT NAME
PREV CLOSE
CMP
% CHANGE
1
AXIS BANK LTD.
602
557
-7.43 %
2
MASTEK LIMITED 127
117
-7.27 %
3
GODREJ CP
1687
1581
-6.29 %
4
TRENT LTD.
225
212
-6.05 %
5
NATCO PHARMA 656
621
-5.32 %
6
GODFREY
1350
1295
-4.05 %
7
PHILIPS BATA INDIA
526
505
-3.72 %
+3.46 % +3.24 %
8
LUPIN LIMITED
1537
1489
-3.12 %
9
IDEA CELLULAR 85
82
-3.11 %
+2.90 % +2.70 %
10
ITC LIMITED
260
253
-2.65 %
11
TECH MAHINDRA 465
454
-2.30 %
+2.55 % +2.41 %
12
BAJAJ AUTO LTD. 2981
2929
-1.74 %
13
INFOSYS
1060
1042
-1.66 %
+1.99 % +1.62 %
14
HERO
3588
3532
-1.58 %
15
MOTOCORP KOTAK BANK
806
796
-1.30 %
+6.65 % +.04 % +5.40 % +4.66 % +4.18 % +3.82 %
NEXT WEEK STARS( AS PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ) NSE FUTURE NSE FUTURE : BUY PCJEWLLERS FUTURE ABOVE 518 TGT 540 SL 510. NSE FUTURE : BUY CENTURYTEX FUTURE ABOVE 915 TGT 940 SL 905. NSE FUTURE : BUY HINDPETRO FUTURE ABOVE 424 TGT 436 SL 418. NSE CASH NSE CASH : BUY CHEMFALKAL NSE CASH ABOVE 331 TGT 355 SL 322. NSE CASH : BUY IOC NSE CASH ABOVE 594 TGT 644 SL 578. NSE CASH : BUY BHARTIARTL NSE CASH ABOVE 331 TGT 355 SL 323
NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK Federal Reserve keeps key rate unchanged - Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid, on average. Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments. Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation. Cabinet approves Railway and Union Budget merger - The Union Cabinet has approved scrapping of separate Railway Budget and merging it with the General Budget. The proposal was moved by the Finance Ministry after it received representations from some ministries that the annual budget exercise be completed before the new fiscal year begins on April 1 for streamlined allocation of funds. "We are merging the union budget with the Railway budget. There will be only one budget. The functional autonomy of the Railway to be maintained," Arun Jaitley said. To facilitate this, the Budget Session of parliament will be called sometime before January 25, a month ahead of the current practice.
Loss in exports lead to job losses: ASSOCHAM study - Sharp drop in merchandise exports mainly contributed to a loss of 70,000 jobs during the second quarter of 2015 reinforcing a crucial point that the employment generation has to be led by the domestic demand in the wake of subdued global demand, an ASSOCHAM –Thought Arbitrage study noted. It said around 70,000 workers were retrenched in the second quarter of 2015. Livelihood opportunities in export units particularly shrank during this period. While slowdown in global demand compelled some of the units to retrench people from pay roll, the reduction was facilitated by the increasing contractualisation of jobs. "There is a concern because most of the export-oriented units in the economy are dependent on contractual workers. So, massive reduction in contractual jobs in these sectors might as well imply deteriorating conditions in the export units,” the paper said. Given the subdued global economic scenario, rejuvenating the economy by exporting or utilising external trade remains a difficult proposition, if not immediately impossible. “Therefore, Indian economy has to look internally at the domestic economy to restart the Indian growth story. That is only possible if there is extra demand generation within the economy. Employment generation is the most important factor to generate such extra demand. More employment means extra purchasing power in the hands of the people, and subsequently more demand generated for all kinds of commodities and services”, ASSOCHAM Secretary General Mr D S Rawat said. GST Council to hold first meeting tomorrow - The All powerful GST Council, which will decide on tax rates, exempted goods and threshold, will meet for the first time tomorrow as it races against time to iron out issues between Centre and states for rolling out the new indirect tax regime from April 1, 2017. The Goods and Services Tax Council is chaired by the Union Finance Minister and has Minister of State in charge of revenue and state finance ministers as members. The two-day meet of the GST Council beginning tomorrow is likely to take up the discussion on issues of dual control and threshold with states demanding that they be given the legal and administrative power for imposing tax on entities with turnover of up to Rs 1.5 crore. In their last meeting with Jaitley on July 26, states had made it clear that small businesses with turnover of Rs 1.5 crore and below should be taxed only in the hands of state. Moody's to upgrade India's rating in two years if reforms are tangible - Moody's on Tuesday said it could upgrade India's rating in 1-2 years if it is convinced that the economic reforms are tangible. Moody's, which has a 'Baa3' rating with a positive outlook, said evidence of policymakers working towards a faster fiscal consolidation, reducing the debt-GDP ratio and addressing infrastructure and monsoon volatility
challenges will determine an upgrade, going forward.We have a positive outlook on India. On balance, the risk is on the upside. We are continuously monitoring the rating. We see pressure building up in 1-2 years and any tangible change could bring about a change in rating," Moody's Sovereign Group Senior V-P Marie Diron told journalists. Moody's Investors Service had in April 2015 revised India's outlook to 'positive' from 'stable' and said it could upgrade rating in 12-18 months. India's step-wise reforms have been set in motion, but weak investment and banking risk may act as speed-breakers, Moody's Investors Service said in a report. India posts surprise current account deficit on slower remittances - India unexpectedly posted a slight current account deficit in the April-June quarter, contrasting with expectations it would post the first surplus in nine years, as citizens abroad sent fewer remittances home. Reserve Bank of India data on Wednesday showed India posted a current account deficit of $ 300 million, or 0.1 percent of gross domestic product, in the period. It compared with expectations for a $ 4 billion surplus that would have been the first positive balance since the first three months of 2007. The deficit, however, was much narrower than the $ 6.1 billion, or 1.2 percent of GDP, in the same quarter a year ago. India has a large number of citizens who work abroad, but what they have been able to send home has fallen due to an economic slowdown in popular work destinations such as the Middle East. Private transfer receipts, which reflect remittances, fell to $ 15.2 billion in April-June versus $ 16.3 billion a year ago, according to the RBI data.
� TOP ECONOMY NEWS The Indian government will partly fund a pipeline project linking five eastern states, the first such move by the country as it aims to gradually move to a gas-based economy The Union Cabinet gave its nod for raising extra budgetary resources of Rs. 313 billion in the financial year 2016-17. Breaking from tradition, the general budget of the union government is likely to be presented on February 1 instead of the last day of the month, as part of an overhaul that would also scrap the practice of a separate railway budget. The government reviewed India's existing free trade agreements and their impact on domestic economy and employment generation.
India is negotiating with US Export-Import Bank for an USD 8-9 billion loan to finance six Westinghouse Electric nuclear reactors. The government expects to mobilize more than Rs8.20bn from the fifth tranche of Sovereign Gold Bond scheme, and the next tranche will be launched with more attractive features before Diwali. India Inc's external commercial borrowing jumped by over four times to USD3.17bn in August this year. Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari announced a string expressway projects worth about Rs. 660 billion in Punjab. Services exports fell by 4.6% to USD 12.78 billion in July this year. FIPB will decide on 15 foreign investment proposals, including that of Idea Cellular Infrastructure Services and Sharekhan, on September 26. The recent revision of minimum wages for the agri and non-agri sector workers would benefit 7 million people, Labour Minister.
� TOP CORPORATE NEWS IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd has emerged as a preferred bidder for six-laning of the Kishangarh-Udaipur-Ahmedabad section of NH-79 in Rajasthan. HSIL Limited has launched its moon-bow range of water purifiers in five variants. Prestige Estates Projects plans to raise at least USD 300 million, around Rs. 20 billion, by selling up to 40% stake in its rent-yielding commercial assets and has drawn interest from Canadian Pension Plan and GIC of Singapore. The southern developer has hired JP Morgan to advise on the deal involving a string of shopping malls and office spaces valued at about Rs. 50 billion, or USD 750 million. Essel Propack Limited announced 75.1% stake in Essel Deutschland Germany at an enterprise value of USD 32 million.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has approved a viability gap funding/partial capital grant of INR 51.76 billion for GAIL India Limited 2,539-km long JagdishpurHaldia and Bokaro-Dhamra natural gas pipeline. The promoters of NHC Foods are in talks to sell their stake to the firm's Malaysian partner MAP Enterprises. The proposed USD 1 billion JV between ArcelorMittal and SAIL Limited will be finalized by Dec. Nestle India Limited moved Supreme Court seeking its nod to destroy about 550 tonnes of recalled stock of Maggi Noodles which have passed shelf life, saying its storage may lead to health hazard at the 39 locations where it is stored across the country. Reliance Defence & Engineering Limited has emerged as the lowest bidder for building 14 fast-patrol vessels for Indian Coast Guard valued at Rs. 9.20 billion. Goa Shipyard Limited was the L2 bidder while L&T L3 bidder. The vessels will be designed in-house and built by the company at its Pipavav Shipyard. Larsen and Toubro has bagged orders worth Rs. 17.26 billion across various business segments. Tata Steel Limited will pay out a total Rs. 1.30 billion as annual bonus to its eligible employees for the year 2015-16. Reliance Industries Limited has lined up a scheme where 10-15% of the salaries of its top 100 performers will be rolled out as stocks if they have been with the company for three years in a bid to retain talent. Zydus Cadila announced partnership with Japan's Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited to develop vaccine for chikungunya. The troubles for Financial Technologies India Limited ) intensified with the Central Bureau of Investigation conducting search operations at the company’s premises in connection with MSEI licence grant case. Kolte-Patil Developers Limited said it had generated an internal return rate of 36% on
its Margosa Heights project in Pune, which it co-developed with Portman Holdings. Inox Leisure Limited has announced a strategic partnership with Innoviti Payment Solutions to upgrade the customer experience. Abbot Point Operations Pvt Limited, the Australian subsidiary of Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited has entered into an agreement to acquire ownership of Abbot Point Bulkcoal Pty Limited . GAIL India Limited has started its first UNIPOL PE process line to produce 0.4 mt of polyethylene annually. Sharon Bio-Medicine Limited has received approval from the US health regulator for its API plant at Taloja in Maharashtra. The tax department has slapped a service tax demand of over Rs. 61 billion on the overseas arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, a move that may potentially render its investments in oil and gas fields abroad infructuous. British Petroleum plc of UK sold a further 8.53% stake in Castrol India Limited to bring its shareholding down to 51%. TeamLease Services Limited is expanding its focus on the higher margin IT staffing business by acquiring local rival NichePro Technologies for Rs. 290 million, its second buy this year. Indian Oil Corporation and GAIL India will sign a pact to take 49% stake in Adani Group's Rs. 50 billion Dhamra LNG project in Odisha. Sundaram Finance Limited , raising Rs. 20 billion through debentures to finance business expansion. The Reserve Bank has allowed foreign investors to buy up to 49% stake in Inox Leisure Limited under the Portfolio Investment Scheme.
� TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK India is less vulnerable to banking distress among the major economies while neighbouring China faces higher risks, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Data compiled by BIS of more than 40 economies show that credit-to-GDP gap was among the least for India in the first quarter of this year. The metric, seen as a reliable early warning indicator of impending financial crises, captures the build-up of excessive credit in the system. In the first quarter of 2016, India's credit-to-GDP gap stood at -2.9, also the lowest among the BRIC group of nations, as per BIS data. The same stood at -3.0 in the three months ended December 2015. With IDBI Bank proposed Qualified Institutional Placement issue receiving lukewarm interest from investors, government is now considering other options including follow on public offer and strategic sale to reduce its stake in the lender. "We have never said that QIP is the only route. Initially some investors had shown their interest in QIP, but right now there is not much interest," Finance Ministry sources said. Federal Bank has launched its second Federal Skill Academy at Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu. The academy has been launched as part of its Corporate Social Responsibility initiatives. The Academy at Coimbatore will be initially providing an in-demand CNC Machine Operator Certificate Course in Milling & Turning which will be certified by COINDIA. The initiative will facilitate underprivileged students to successfully complete the courses which will make them employable for for opportunities both in India as well as abroad. The first Academy was inaugurated last year at Ernakulam, Kerala. Concerned over low use of debit cards in electronic payments, the Reserve Bank of India wants banks that are not installing card accepting machines to contribute to a fund that will subsidise installation of point of sales terminals. There are over 68-crore debit cards in India. Over a third of these have been added in the last two years following the implementation of the Jan-Dhan Yojana. But the number of PoS terminals has gone up marginally from 12 lakh to 14 lakh. The average debit cardholder in India uses his/her card only once at a PoS machine for every 10 transactions in an ATM. The Reserve Bank of India has issued an ultimatum to Indian banks on cyber crimes, asking them to immediately report any breach of security so that the overall network is not compromised. The tough stance follows the reluctance of some banks to report such frauds in order to avoid negative publicity. The banking regulator has set a deadline of
March 31, 2017, for banks to put in place a mechanism to report cyber attacks immediately. A team of RBI officials, led by Executive Director Meena Hemchandra, has conveyed this to senior executives of banks in a meeting held recently. The officials told bankers that RBI will handhold them till March 31 next year but after that, banks should be prepared for punitive action if they fail to immediately inform about any cyber attack, two senior officials said Bank deposits growth rate has surged to its highest in more than a decade in two weeks to September 2 aided by the flow from the 7th Pay Commission payments and the credit-todeposit ratio doubled to 14%, though it is still a fraction of what it used to be in peak. In the fortnight ended September 2, the period when the revised salary was credited to employees' accounts, bank deposits rose 1.3% to Rs 1.3 lakh crore, according to latest RBI data. This is almost a fifth of what banks have raised in the fiscal so far. This is the highest normal time fortnightly growth in deposits. One sees banking sector deposit growth of over Rs 1 lakh crore only during the end of a quarter.
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