Equity Research Report 29 August 2016 Ways2Capital

Page 1


TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY FIFTY : - The Equity benchmark Nifty50 has opened flat basis on Monday up by 1 point at 8667. Nifty had a luck-luster movement last week where it moved in a narrow band of 125 points. Time to look forward to the follow up of Raghuram Rajan’s era country central bank by the newly appointed governor Urjit Patel, the scenario is still far from relax to him like rising inflationary Pressure and lower growth in domestic demand. For the second time in 7 month and after 5 month of consistent of positive closing, Nifty has ended marginally in red in this week. The Nifty is facing the lot of Resistance Levels around 8680-8720 levels. Ahead of Fed Chair Jennet Yellen Speech and Last trading Session of august F&O expiry the Nifty has witnessed some volatility but it was in the very much trading range. The crucial levels for Nifty for next week is 8650-8680 up side and 8550-8500 down side. If Nifty break the level of 8550 could witness the correction of 150-200 points.

BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty open in Positive note on Monday up by 18 points or 0.1 percent at 19432. The Net-Performing Assets of India’s State run Bank’s. Measured of their percentage of advances, has ballooned 5.4 per cent as on March 2015 to 11.5 per cent in 15 month. The Government this time Choose to play safe by appointing Patel as the New Reserve Bank of India Governor, and in this way basically ensuring smooth transition, continuation of present policy of inflation targeting. Valuation wise Bank Nifty at 19400 PE of Bank Nifty is 27.50 and may be quite expensive from its historic average of around 18-20. Bank Nifty may be in the bubble zone already and we may see significant correction. Even after any initial Euphoria. The Crucial Levels for Bank Nifty is 19663-20031 upside and 19001-18682 down side.

Monday, 29 August 2016


TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES ) NIFTY DAILY

R2 8797

WEEKLY

R2 9000

MONTHLY

R1

PP

S1

8649

8575

8501

R1

PP

S1

8730

R2

8595

R1

9209

8353 S2

8460

PP

8801

S2

8597

8190

S1

S2

8393

7985

S2

BANK NIFTY DAILY

R2 19885

WEEKLY

R2 20331

MONTHLY

R2 22176

R1

PP

S1

19443

19222

19001

R1

PP

S1

19621

19266

18911

R1

PP

S1

20084

19038

17992

50 DAYS

S2 18201 S2 15900

MOVING AVERAGE

21 DAYS

NIFTY

8652

8506

8225

7908

BANK NIFTY

19072

18631

17748

16808

PARABOLIC SAR

DAILY

WEEKLY

100 DAYS

18559

MONTHLY

NIFTY

8739

8331

7161

BANK NIFTY

18773

18559

14020

200 DAYS


PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )

Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied the Bollinger Band Along with Parabolic SAR, both the indicators give the early indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market. Along with that the Nifty dalily Chart is Froming the Symmetrical Wedge Pattern Which is the Reversal trend Signal. As we have seen in last week the Nifty is traded in the Narrow range of 150-200 points. Now it seems that trend has reverse into the Bearish Side in the Daily Chart has Formed the Bearish candle which is also the signal of market reversal. If the Nifty is Not able to Sustain the levels of 85508500 level we could witness the level of 8400-8350 in near Term. Move Toward the 8600 levels in upcoming will lead the Nifty to break the level of 8780-8800 could touch the level of 8990 in upcoming week. The Crucial levels for Nifty is 8500-8480 down side and 86800-8720 is Upside. .


PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )

Detail of Chart - In the Above given Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the Bollinger Band along with the Parabolic , both the indicators break Upper or Lower Band give the early indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market respectively. Thus the Bank Nifty Chart also formed the Double top Kind of Pattern which has Break below side, from this Point we are Expecting if the trend continue for Upcoming week and it could touch the level of 18500-18320 in Near-Term. If we look into the Fundamental of Bank Nifty the P/E of Bank Nifty is arounf 24 which is the overbought Territory and could seen the Bearish Movement for Upcoming time. The Crucial Levels for Bank Nifty is 1945019860 up side and 19063-18872 Down side.


NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS COMPANY NAME

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

ACC

EQ

1681

1659

1640

1618

1599

ALBK AMBUJACEM ASIAN PAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBARODA BANKINDIA BHEL BHARTIARTL CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK ITC INDUSIND BANK INFY JINDALSTEL KOTAKBANK LT M&M MRF MARUTI ONGC ORIENTBANK RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SBIN SSLT( VEDL) SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL UNIONBANK

EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ EQ

83 271 1141 593 2892 165 115 144 351 576 337 165 3091 391 4600 812 1384 1265 3353 157 919 250 255 1196 1056 90 798 1474 1442 37098 4984 240 121 56 514 1039 607 54 252 173 774 530 77 378 136

80 268 1131 589 2875 162 113 141 347 571 335 162 3066 385 4567 795 1376 1261 3337 156 910 248 254 1180 1038 87 789 1451 1434 36681 4950 239 118 54 508 1033 595 53 249 171 765 517 76 374 135

79 265 1111 584 2860 159 111 140 344 567 332 160 3045 378 4537 784 1362 1257 3317 155 905 245 253 1170 1027 86 781 1435 1425 36447 4930 238 116 53 500 1023 589 52 247 169 758 501 76 370 133

76 262 1101 580 2843 156 109 137 340 562 330 157 3020 372 4504 767 1354 1253 3301 154 896 243 252 1154 1009 83 772 1412 1417 3603 4896 236 113 51 494 1017 577 51 244 167 749 488 75 366 132

75 259 1081 575 2828 153 107 136 337 558 327 155 2999 365 4447 756 1340 1249 3281 153 891 240 251 1144 998 82 764 1396 1408 35796 4876 235 111 50 486 1007 571 50 242 165 742 472 75 362 130


TOP 15 ACHIEVERS SR.NO

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

PREV CLOSE

SCRIPT NAME

CMP

GAIL INDIA LTD.

363

378

AURO PHARMA

765

789

CIPLA LIMITED

556

567

BHARTI INFRA

342

346

RELIANCE

1014

1027

ITC LIMITED

250

253

DR. REDDY’S LAB

3010

3040

ASIAN PAINTS

1113

1123

HDFC BANK

1247

1257

ZEEL

503

506

BHARAT PETRO

593

595

MARUTI SUZUKI

4900

4920

IDEA CELLULAR

93

94

KOTAK BANK

778

780

ALKEM LAB

1538

1542

// % CHANGE

+4.05 % +3.25 % +1.88 % +1.31 % +1.28 % +1.14 % +1.00 % +0.88 % +0.80 % +0.53 % +0.43 % +0.42 % +0.37 % +0.30 % +0.30 %

SR.NO

TOP 15 LOOSERS SCRIPT NAME

PREV CLOSE

CMP

% CHANGE

1

TATA STEEL

392

369

-5.79 %

2

WIPRO LTD.

520

490

-5.79 %

3

ADANI PORTS

273

257

-5.62 %

4

NTPC

166

157

-5.31 %

5

SBIN

258

246

-4.60 %

6

L&T

1494

1427

-4.49 %

7

LUPIN LIMITED

1576

1512

-4.06 %

8

AMBUJA CEMENT 276

266

-3.73 %

9

SUN PHARMA

783

755

-3.64 %

10

ICICI BANK

253

245

-3.39 %

11

ULTRATECH CEM 3926

3803

-3.13 %

12

ACC

1691

1638

-3.12 %

13

TCS

2603

2524

-3.02 %

14

TATA POWER

78

75

-2.95 %

15

TECH MAHINDRA 473

459

-2.80 %

NEXT WEEK STARS( AS PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ) NSE CASH : BUY BANKINDIA NSE CASH ABOVE 116 TGT 123 SL 113. NSE CASH : BUY JETAIRWAYS NSE CASH ABOVE 540 TGT 570 SL 518. NSE CASH : BUY TITAN NSE CASH ABOVE 410 TGT 445 SL 397. NSE FUTURE NSE FUTURE : BUY TATASTEEL FUTURE ABOVE 375.70 TGT 385.70 SL 370.70 NSE FUTURE : BUY ICICIBANK FUTURE ABOVE 248.20 TGT 254.20 SL 245.20 NSE FUTURE : BUY ULTRACEMCO FUTURE ABOVE 3836 TGT 3916 SL 3796


NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK Reforms to aid growth; banking sector risks remain: Moody's - Moody's Investors Service said continued reforms to enhance business environment and moderate inflation will help India achieve robust growth but cautioned that rising contingent liability risks in the banking sector could affect its credit quality. Evidence of success in policymakers' efforts to introduce growth-enhancing economic and institutional reforms would provide support for a rating upgrade, Moody's said in its Annual Credit Analysis as it forecast GDP growth at around 7.5 per cent for next two years, "Sustained fiscal consolidation, stable inflation at moderate levels and progress on reforms aimed at enhancing the business environment would contribute to sustained growth at robust levels. In turn, persistent income and profit growth would raise government revenues and contribute to improved fiscal metrics. However, we expect the benefits to be very gradual," Moody's said. July private equity investments slump as big-ticket deals vanish - Private equity deal momentum saw a significant downtrend in July with deals worth $ 768 million, registering a decline of 73 per cent over the same period a year ago, largely due to absence of big-ticket deals. According to assurance, tax and advisory firm Grant Thornton, there were 86 PE deals worth $768 million in July this year while in the corresponding period last year, there were 111 transactions worth $ 2,839 million. "PE investments witnessed a downward trend both in terms of volumes 23 per cent year-onyear and values 73 per cent y-o-y, marking the month's lowest investment values in the last three years due to absence of big-ticket investments only 3 investments above $50 million compared to 11 in July 2015," the report said. Overall global investment in fintech companies totaled $ 99.4 billion, shows report Global investments in fintech companies across both venture-backed and non-venturebacked companies totaled $ 9.4 billion in the second quarter of this year, says a report. However, investment directed to VC-backed financial technology startups fell 49 per cent, the report said. According to the Pulse of Fintech, the quarterly global report on fintech VC trends published jointly by KPMG International and CB Insights, despite this decline, VC investment in fintech is on pace to exceed 2015 results. "Despite VC-backed funding to fintech decreasing in Q2, overall fintech funding remains on track to surpass 2015 levels," says Ian Pollari, Global Co-Leader of Fintech, KPMG International.


Government expects tax revenues to increase after GST roll-out - The government expects its tax buoyancy to increase after the goods and services tax is rolled out, a sharp contrast to many experts warning of disruptions in tax machinery and slower revenue growth in the initial years of this tax reform. In the medium term expenditure framework released last week the government expects higher economic growth, GST and other policy measures to help lift gross tax revenues to 10.9% of gross domestic product in FY18 and 11.1% of GDP in FY of GDP in FY19. The Centre's tax-to-GDP ratio was 10.7% in FY15, almost same as projected 10.8% for the current fiscal. Ind-Ra upticks GDP forecast to 7.8%; growth on but not speedy - Ind-Ra has revised India's economic growth forecast to 7.8 per cent for the ongoing fiscal on better monsoon, but said the economy is just "chugging along" despite the euphoria emerging after the formation Modi government at the Centre. "India Ratings and Research has revised its gross domestic product estimate for 2016-17 upwards to 7.8 per cent from its earlier forecast of 7.7 per cent. The upward revision has been prompted by the progress of monsoon and the sowing of kharif crop so far," the ratings agency said in its research report on 'Review of the Economy'. With the area under kharif crop sowing 5.7 per cent higher than a normal area so far, it said the agency expects the farm gross value added to grow 3 per cent in the current fiscal as against 2.8 per cent forecasted earlier. India should allow migration of China's excess manufacturing' - India should shed its concerns over pollution and allow Chinese industries to shift their excess capacity to it which would be benificial to both countries, state media here said. "India may need to carefully think about whether it wants to resist or embrace the migration of China's production capacity, which allegedly involves some investment in heavy polluting industries," an article in the state-run Global Times said. Referring to reports of China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation starting operations at its joint venture plant in Haryana to manufacture and repair locomotives, it said, "the partnership is hardly surprising seeing as India has one of the world's largest railway network, creating a huge demand for engines and other railway equipment".

� TOP ECONOMY NEWS Income tax collection from the Mumbai zone, which sends one-third of the total direct tax collections, grew by around 9% to Rs. 671.85 billion in April-July, driven by a massive spike in advance collections from individuals.


For the second-straight month, India trimmed its holdings of American government securities to USD 117.2 billion in June. The Ministry of Railways has opted for a slab-wise revision of its coal freight based on distance. Through this, there would be a 8-14% rise on coal freight rates for distances between 100-700 km. India's total installed solar capacity has grown by over 80% in the last 12 months to reach 8.1GW. Out of the 3.6 GW capacity added in this period, 2.7 GW has come from four southern states with Tamil Nadu alone adding over 1.2 GW. These six states account for 80% of the capacity added in India. India is renegotiating over a two-decade old tax treaty with Singapore and the revised protocol will take into account the concerns of both. The Union Cabinet gave its nod for signing of revised double taxation avoidance agreement with Cyprus, a popular tax haven. Domestic crude oil output fell 1.81% in July 2016 but natural gas output rose 3.27%. The National Payments Corporation of India said the Unified Payments Interface will go live for customers of 21 banks. The Reserve Bank of India announced a slew of changes in fixed income and currency markets such as allowing lenders to issue 'masala bonds' and to accept corporate bonds under the liquidity adjustment facility. The government is set to seek formal Cabinet approval for shutting down seven stateowned companies, with their respective line ministries apparently agreed. This would be the first time that approvals for closing so many public sector undertakings is being sought in one go.

� TOP CORPORATE NEWS A green panel has deferred its decision on granting environment clearance to Indian Oil Corporation’s Rs. 5.93 billion Styrene and Ethylene project at Panipat in Haryana, for want of more information.


Apollo Tyres has said it is planning to invest around Rs. 16-17 billion during the current fiscal, a major chunk of which will be for its Chennai facility. Additionally, it plans to spend about EUR 200 million on its Hungary greenfield facility for the fiscal 2017. Sun TV Network Limited said that it is confident on receiving approvals from the Centre for its FM radio business, in which company invested around Rs. 6.20 billion. Earlier, the Ministry of Broadcasting of the Government of India has refused to accept its applications and the issue was a matter of dispute in various courts. Tata Power’s 50:50 joint venture with Exxaro Resources in South Africa, Cennergi announced commencement of commercial operations for its 95 MW Tsitsikamma Community wind farm project. Manappuram Finance said it plans to raise Rs. 750 million through secured redeemable non-convertible debentures. Competition Commission has cleared IT company HCL Technologies' equity swap deal to buy the business of Geometric Ltd. Srei Infrastructure Finance Limited said it will raise Rs. 10 billion through a public offer of non-convertible debentures. Hindustan Petroleum Corp Limited and GAIL India Ltd will divest up to 50% stake in the Rs. 300 billion petrochemical plant which is being set up in Andhra Pradesh. ONGC Videsh Limited, the overseas arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp, has received one-year extension to explore a Vietnamese oil block in the contested waters of the South China Sea. Vodafone Group Plc's Indian arm is in exploratory talks around a possible merger with its smaller domestic rival Idea Cellular. Castrol India Limited, a unit of oil major BP Plc, is selling an up to USD 261 million stake in Castrol India Limited in a block trade. Reliance Communications has launched content delivery network 'Fast Edge' for faster delivery of web content to users.


Honeywell launched a state-of-the-art electro Magnetic Interference and Electro Magnetic Compatibility Lab at Honeywell Technology Solutions centre in Hyderabad. Lupin Limited has received approval from the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation for Acotiamide 100 mg tablets used for treatment of indigestion. IL&FS Engineering Services along with its joint venture partner Unitech Power Transmission has bagged a contract worth Rs 1.36 billion from Power Grid Corporation for a project in Gujarat. Jindal Steel and Power Limited has secured long-term coal linkage of 1.18 mtpa for power plants in Chhattisgarh. Reliance Industries, has asked its 40,000-plus employees to stop using phones connections of existing operators, like Airtel and Vodafone, and instead switch to its own high-speed 4G Jio. GAIL India Limited signed a memorandum of understanding with California-based Bloom Energy for developing natural gas-based fuel cell power generation. Tata Motors Distribusi Indonesia , a Tata Motors’ unit, has launched two newgeneration commercial vehicles in Indonesia - Tata ULTRA 1012 light truck and Tata Xenon XT D-Cab 4x4 pick-up - at the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show 2016. Birla Corporation has completed acquisition of cement business, a wholly-owned arm of flagship Reliance Infrastructure, for an enterprise valuation of about Rs. 48 billion. JK Tyre has become the first Indian company to roll out 10 million truck/bus radial tyres. Lupin Limited said its subsidiary Gavis Pharmaceuticals has received approval from the US health regulator to market generic linezolid tablets used for treating bacterial infection in the American market. New Delhi Television has got partial relief from Income Tax Appellate Tribunal in a case related to payment of income tax. The ITAT has disallowed a tax claim by the Income Tax department in excess of Rs. 220 million from the Delhi-based media company for the


assessment years 2007-08 and 2008-09. ITC Limited has filed a case against Britannia Industries, claiming NutriChoice Digestive Zero brand has copied the packaging of ITC's Sunfeast Farmlite Digestive All Good biscuit. Oil and Natural Gas Corp has awarded a multi-milliondollar frame agreement to US energy giant GE Oil & Gas, under which the latter will support the state firm's exploratory drilling campaign in shallow to medium waters for the next three years. Tata Global Beverages may “restructure” China operations. Jubilant Life Sciences has received approval from the US health regulator for Telmisartan tablets, used for the treatment of hypertension, in the American market. Strides Shasun has received approval from the US health regulator for Ranitidine tablets used for treating intestinal and stomach ulcers and gastroesophageal reflux disease. Tata Steel Limited has started exports of ferroshots from its steel plant at Kalinganagar in Odisha. Tata Consultancy Services, has settled an ongoing law suit with Orange County, California. The company has paid USD 26 million to settle the three-year long dispute. The Board of Directors of Nava Bharat Ventures Limited have approved sale of 100% shares of Nava Bharat Lao Energy Pte Limited. 8K Miles Software Services Ltd announced its plans to raise Rs. 5 billion through a mix of instruments including issue of equity shares or convertible bonds through qualified institutional placement, among others.

✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK Urjit Patel should count himself lucky. He will probably be the only Reserve Bank governor since 1992 to be taking charge when there is calm on the macroeconomic front. C Rangarajan from 1992 to 1997 had to tackle a macroeconomic mess, his successor Bimal Jalan 1997-2003 had to face the Asian crisis. YV Reddy 2003-2008, after a point,


had to deal with surging capital flows, and D Subbarao 2008-2013 was busy tackling one crisis after another throughout his stint. For Raghuram Rajan, it was the currency crisis and, later, the problem of non-performing assets that afflicted state-run banks. In that sense, the path appears relatively smooth for Patel — except for the state of banks, which is probably at its worst. Patel will have to carefully navigate the banking landmine. Setting an ambitious target of having five million customers by 2020 and to become the No 3 player in the extremely competitive industry, mid-sized lender Yes Bank Limited made a foray into the credit card market. At a time when lenders are playing it safe by sticking to their own customers to sell credit cards, the bank plans to go all out seeking customers from outside for the unsecured lending product. "Credit card is central to our customer acquisition plans. We don't believe there is anything like an internal customer or an external customer," the bank's senior group president for retail and business banking Pralay Mondal said. State Bank of India will not need fair trade regulator CCI's approval for merging 5 associates and Bhartiya Mahila Bank with itself, a move that will create a global sized bank with an asset base of Rs. 30 trillion. The Gross Non-Performing Assets or bad loans, of India’s State Run Banks, Measured as a percentage of their Advances, have ballooned 5.4 as on march 2015 to 11.3 per cent 15 months latter. As per the data Available with Reserve Bank of India. In Contrast, Such bad loans of Private Banks or Foreign Entities in the Industry. Rose a relatively less dramatic manner - from 2.2 percent to 2.8 percent for the former and from the 3.2 percent to 3.7 per cent for the latter. Private sector lender IndusInd Bank Limited has tied up with IBM to use its Cloud commerce solutions to transform customer engagements and enhance its cross-sell platforms. As a part of a three year strategic agreement, IBM will provide a cloud and predictive analytics based multi-channel campaign management solution that enables IndusInd Bank to strengthen its online banking presence while improving the product holding per customer. In the highly competitive Indian retail banking space, businesses need digital marketing solutions capable of sifting through large amounts of transactional and interaction data from various touch points as well as strong analytical capabilitie. IndusInd Bank has tied up with IBM to use its Cloud commerce solutions to transform customer engagements and enhance its cross-sell platforms.


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