Natural Disasters in the Time of COVID By Kadie Williams Co-Chair, WCAPS Climate Change Working Group Growing up in the Caribbean, my world was bordered by the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. With a population of 72,000, Dominica was a safe haven - an island canopy defined by lush forests and earthing greenery. While I embraced the joys of island life, I was fully aware that my island was under threat. My dad worked in disaster management/preparedness, and so I developed an affinity for all things related to natural disasters. In fact, each year, I nervously awaited the hurricane season. I prepared myself for the heavy rainfall, devastating landslides, and turbulent storms. The meteorologists would lament the “inclement weather conditions” as the island remained on standby. From June to October, I was glued to the weather channel, waiting patiently for mother nature to reveal my island’s fate. In 2015, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) was ratified, demonstrating the international community’s commitment to the integration of post-disaster relief, rehabilitation, and sustainable development in enabling effective disaster response (UNSIDR, 2015). This framework was a global call to strengthen capacity, reduce risk, build resilience, and adapt to changing climatic and environmental conditions. In 2017 and 2018, total economic loss as a result of natural disasters amounted to $360 billion and $160 billion, respectively, demonstrating the global financial implications of this phenomenon (Löw, 2019). Thousands have lost their lives, while millions have been injured, displaced, or made homeless. The World Bank estimates that every year, extreme weather events plunge 26 million people into poverty and reduce global GDP by $520 billion (World Bank, 2017). The rising cost of disasters has had a disproportionate effect on developing countries, most of which lack the capacity to absorb environmental and other disaster related shocks. I must admit, I have seen a lot of progress in the last decade, and I entered 2020 with a sense of optimism. Despite the growing uncertainty of climate change, the global response to flooding, drought and hurricanes has improved significantly. Evidence suggests that the global community has developed a sense of empathy and awareness that shields disaster-struck and disaster-prone communities from the reality of their impending doom. Nevertheless, there is still room for improvement. The Atlantic hurricane season is only a few weeks away and the surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean has been warming at an alarming rate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2015) estimates that the surface temperature of the Caribbean Sea will increase
by an average of approximately 1.8°C to 2.3°C annually (p. 1627). Sea surface temperatures have been rising for years, increasing the potency of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Hurricanes are fueled by the moist, warm air evaporating from the ocean; therefore, warm surface temperatures can lead to more intense and destructive storms. However, this is not breaking news. We are all fully aware that as the years go by, storms are likely to be more frequent and destructive. Each year, we anticipate a hurricane season that is more powerful than the last, and I am most often cautiously underwhelmed by the preparations. This year however, I am downright scared. Recently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released its 2020 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. The outlook “predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season” (NOAA, 2020). As we prepare for an above-normal hurricane season, 2020 will pose a different challenge - one that I have not been able to fully grasp. The 2020 hurricane season will be active, but are we ready? Can the global community handle another hurricane Harvey, Maria, Irma, Sandy or Katrina while battling a vicious pandemic? As I write this, I peak through my windows to get a glimpse of the sun; the flowers are blooming, the air seems light and the ambiance of spring is alive and well despite COVID-19. However, while I long for the warmth of summer, there is a cold reality that awaits the Caribbean region. Governments across the Caribbean are now tasked with orchestrating an effective response to COVID-19, while simultaneously preparing for another season of hurricanes, floods, and heavy rainfall. While these events will alter the physical landscape, the impacts on human health and welfare are also concerning. Koko Warner (2010) argues that natural disasters “reveal both physical vulnerability (such as weak infrastructure) and social vulnerability (such as poverty, [and] power structures that undermine certain groups)” (p. 403). Both natural disasters and COVID-19 compound existing inequities and vulnerabilities, further undermining progress towards sustainable development. Many countries across the globe are facing a similar somber reality. This reality is not unique to the Caribbean. This hurricane season, policymakers across the globe are facing a tough decision. How can they reduce vulnerability to natural disasters while practicing physical distancing during the COVID19 pandemic? While natural disasters reveal vulnerabilities, social capital has long been a source of strength for many communities. Social capital refers to the networks and relationships that individuals depend on to access resources, coordinate action and cope with various risks. It can be accumulated through formal institutions such as political systems, markets, and civil society organizations or through informal institutions such as churches and recreational groups. In fact, research suggests that households with more social capital are more equipped to absorb shocks and stresses. However, COVID-19 has limited our ability to build in-person networks that are often essential to accumulating social capital, and in turn building resilience to natural disasters. Social capital is an essential means of building community capacity. In fact, our social networks enable us to build trust and reciprocity, making collective and cooperative action possible. In the
absence of social capital, governments now occupy a critical position in households. As the new architects of interaction, we have no choice but to abide by the government-dictated lock-down guidelines that direct how we interact. As we enter the 2020 hurricane season during the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers must leverage technology to increase and safeguard social capital. Social networking has altered the way in which we build social capital by enabling community productivity and cohesion through online social networking platforms. Although COVID-19 has modified our routine interactions, social networking platforms have allowed us to reconnect and create new forms of social organization. Recent social justice movements have demonstrated an ability to build connections and mobilize resources while still amplifying the voices of the most marginalized. These movements have ushered in a new stock of online social capital – one that leverages individual online contributions to foster new networks. The June 2020 protests demonstrate the power of online organizing and coalition building - two elements that are critical for building community capacity in the aftermath of a disaster. As we enter the 2020 hurricane season, we have an opportunity to create new capacity for collective action by increasing online engagement and encouraging access to online communities that are safe, resourceful, and reliable. During this time of climatic shifts and global pandemics, it is essential that we cultivated and renewed, refined, and shared sense of community. References Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2015). Climate change 2014. Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Part B, Volume 1: Regional Aspects. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Löw, P. (2019). “The natural disasters of 2018 in figures”, Munich Re. Available at:: https://www.munichre.com/topics-online/en/climate-change-and-natural-disasters/naturaldisasters/the-natural-disasters-of-2018-in-figures.html National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (2020). “Busy Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2020”, NOAA, posted May 21, 2020. Available at: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020 United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) (2015). “Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015–2030.” Available at: http://www.wcdrr.org/uploads/Sendai_Framework_for_Disaster_Risk_Reduction_20152030.pdf. Accessed 25 February 2019.
Warner, K. (2010). “Global environmental change and migration: Governance challenges”. Global Environmental Change,20(3), 402-413. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.12.001 World Bank (2017). “GFDRR: Sights Set on a Resilient Future.” Retrieved March 28, 2019: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/01/17/gfdrr-sights-set-on-a-resilient-future