1st QUARTER 2014
BRITISH CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY
About us
The British Chambers of Commerce is the national body for a powerful and influential Network of Accredited Chambers of Commerce across the UK, a Network that directly serves not only its member businesses, but the wider business community. Representing thousands of businesses of all sizes and within all sectors, the British Chambers of Commerce is the voice of the ‘real economy’. Every Chamber sits at the very heart of its local community working with businesses to grow and develop by sharing opportunities, knowledge and know-how. No other organisation makes such a difference to business as the British Chambers of Commerce. Written and researched by: Tom Nolan, Policy Manager David Kern, Chief Economist Suren Thiru, UK Economist Sukhdeep Dhillon, Global Economic Adviser Acknowledgements: Mike Spicer, Director of Research
The British Chambers of Commerce 65 Petty France St. James’s Park London SW1H 9EU Tel: 020 7654 5800
www.britishchambers.org.uk The interactive British Chambers of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey is available at www.economicsurvey.org.uk
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Contents
Introduction
1
Methodology
1
Summary 1st Quarter 2014
2
Domestic Orders and Sales
4
Export Orders and Sales
5
Employment
6
Recruitment Difficulties
7
Investment
8
Business Confidence
9
Capacity Utilisation and Cashflow
10
Prices
11
External Factors
12
National Totals - Manufacturing
13
National Totals - Services
14
Regions & Nations - Manufacturing
15
Regions & Nations - Services
16
Scotland 17 North East
18
North West
19
Yorkshire & the Humber
20
East Midlands
21
West Midlands
22
Wales
23
East of England
24
South East
25
South West
26
London
27
Northern Ireland
28
Further Enquiries
29
Introduction
Methodology
This Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) brings together results obtained from surveys carried out within the nations and regions of the United Kingdom by individual Chambers of Commerce.
The British Chambers of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey for the 1st Quarter 2014 received almost 7,500 business responses. The respondents cover the entire United Kingdom, and were surveyed by postal and online questionnaires over the period 24 February to 19 March.
Those wishing to obtain a more detailed survey of economic conditions in a particular nation or region as perceived by individual businesses are invited to contact the representatives listed on the closing page of this survey report. While the figures conveyed in this summary derive from the Chambers’ respective enquiries, the interpretation is the responsibility of the British Chambers of Commerce, and should not be regarded as necessarily representing the view of any contributing Chamber. NB: Balance figures, referred to throughout this report, are determined by subtracting the percentage of companies reporting decreases in a factor from the percentage of companies reporting increases. Construction firms are included in the manufacturing total.
In the manufacturing sector 2,046 firms, employing approximately 300,000 people, responded. 1,426 (69%) of manufacturing respondents were exporters. In the service sector 5,433 businesses with approximately 650,000 employees responded. Of the service sector participants, 2,713 (50%) were exporters. While the majority of respondents employ fewer than 500 people, the sample included many large businesses. Total responses are weighted according to the actual distribution of companies by size within each region and nation, and each region and nation is similarly weighted within the national aggregates to ensure that the sample provides a truly representative picture of UK commerce and industry. The survey is the largest and most representative of its kind in the UK. Number of responses
7,479
Manufacturing Firms
2,046 (27 % of total)
Services Firms
5,433 (73% of total)
Number of Exporters
4,139
Manufacturing Exporters
1,426 (69% of manufacturers)
Services Exporters
2,713 (50% of services firms)
1
Summary 1st Quarter 2014 The Q1 2014 results are overall upbeat. All the critical Q1 balances for both manufacturing and services are stronger than their long-term averages and some are at all-time highs for our survey. In manufacturing, most key balances rose between Q4 2013 and Q1 2014. There were very small falls in employment and profitability confidence, but these balances are still positive and at historically high levels, indicating continued growth. Six manufacturing balances are at all-time highs: domestic sales; domestic orders; employment expectations; investment in plant & machinery; investment in training; and turnover confidence. In services, there were some small mixed movements between Q4 and Q1, but almost all the key balances remain above their average 2007 levels. There was a surprisingly large fall in the Q1 service employment balance, but this follows a large increase in the previous quarter. The services employment expectations balance rose, and is now higher than its historical average. Both service export balances rose to new all-time highs in Q1. Intentions to raise prices fell in manufacturing and rose slightly in services; but inflation remains a major area of concern for businesses in both sectors. Domestic Market Most Q1 2014 national domestic balances were higher than Q4 2013. One service sector balance recorded a small fall, but all the domestic balances remain at historically high levels in both sectors. The manufacturing sector’s net balance for domestic sales increased from +36% to +38%, equalling its all-time high for our survey. The balance for manufacturers’ home orders rose from +35% to +42%, a new all-time high. The service sector’s balance for domestic sales fell from +38% to +35%, still close to historically high level. The net balance for service domestic orders rose from +32% to +33%, the best level since Q1 1997. Export Market The national export balances rose in Q1 2014. For both manufacturing and services, all the balances are at historically high levels. The manufacturing balance for export sales increased from +35% to 40%, the best level since Q4 1994. The manufacturing balance for export orders rose from +30% to +35%, the highest since Q4 2010. The service balance for export sales increased by two points, to +38%, an all-time high for our survey. The service export orders balance increased by six points, to +39%, also a new all-time high.
The domestic sales balance increased for manufacturing (+2pts) but decreased for services (-3pts) -14pts
+2pts to to -6% +38%
Employment The employment balances recorded divergent movements in Q1. For both sectors, the backward-looking employment balances fell (but still indicate growth), while the forwardlooking employment expectations balances rose. In manufacturing, the employment balance fell two points, to +31%, while the employment expectations balance rose nine points, to +40%, an all-time high. The service employment balance fell 13 points, to +16%, while the employment expectations balance rose two points, to +29%, the highest level since Q4 2007. Investment Most national investment balances rose in Q1. One service balance fell very slightly, but all balances remain at historically high levels. The balance of manufacturing firms that have revised upwards their plans to invest in plant & machinery increased by five points, to +37%, an all-time high. Manufacturing intentions to invest in training increased four points, to +33%, equalling the all-time high. The balance of service firms that have revised upwards their plans to invest in plant & machinery fell one point to +23%, but remains near historically high level. Service sector intentions to invest in training rose four points to +30%, the best level since Q3 2007. All the investment balances are now above their longterm historical averages.
The export sales balance increased for manufacturing (+5pts) and for services (+2pts).
-7pts
-3pts to -2% +35% to
Manufacturing +40% (+5pts) Manufacturing +8% (-16pts)
2
Services +38% (+2pts)
Business Confidence All the national confidence balances remained at historically high levels in Q1. Confidence that manufacturing turnover will improve in the next 12 months was +67% in Q1, and continues to be at an all-time high. Confidence that manufacturing profitability will improve in the next 12 months fell from +51% to +50%, but remains at a very high level, only just below the all-time high. Confidence that service sector turnover will improve in the next 12 months was +60%, the same as in Q4, and remains the highest level seen since Q4 1997. Confidence that service sector profitability will improve in the next 12 months rose from +45% to +47%, the best level since Q3 2007.
Prices Intentions to raise prices diverged between manufacturing and services. The balance of manufacturing firms reporting pressure to raise prices fell seven points to +24%, mainly due to reduced pressures from raw material costs. The balance of service firms expecting to raise prices increased two points to +29%, the highest level since Q1 2011.
Capacity Utilisation and Cashflow The share of manufacturing firms operating at full capacity fell two percentage points to 44%, but remains very high. The share of service firms operating at full capacity increased by three points to +46%, only just below the alltime high recorded in Q4 1996. The Q1 cashflow balances recorded small divergent movements. The manufacturing cashflow balance rose one point to +13%, well above the long-term historical average. However, services cashflow fell one point to +15%, but remains well above the long-term historical average.
A view from BCC Chief Economist David Kern The upbeat results of our new survey, coupled with positive economic indicators, suggest that the economy is continuing to grow at a solid pace. But, in spite of this impressive progress, the recovery is not yet secure. UK growth is still unduly reliant on consumer spending, driven by a buoyant housing market and a falling savings ratio. The very large current account deficit also poses risks. Since UK personal debt levels are still too high and must fall further, it will be difficult to sustain the current pace of growth in the medium term without structural changes in the economy. Though personal consumption must play an important role in the recovery, unless investment and net exports can make a bigger contribution to growth, there is a risk that the recovery will stall. The strong export and investment balances in our survey confirm that business is ready to play a major role in growing and rebalancing the economy. But the government and the MPC must help create the necessary conditions for this to happen.
The balance of service firms reporting an increase in domestic orders increased by 1pt in Q1 +1pt to +33%
The balance of firms who employed new staff decreased for both manufacturing (-2pts) and services (-13pts)
-2pts
-13pts
to
to
+31%
+16%
3
Domestic sales and orders
Domestic orders 50 40
recession
recession
30 20
% Balance
10
Q. Excluding seasonal variation, domestic sales over the past 3 months are: Up/Same/Down
0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60
Q. Excluding seasonal variation, domestic orders over the past 3 months are: Up/Same/Down
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
2007
2009
2011
2013
Service Sector Manufacturing Sector
Domestic orders balance is at a historically high level for manufacturing The National Perspective Most national domestic balances increased in Q1 2014, compared with Q4 2013, and the manufacturing balances were at their all-time highs. Although one service sector balance recorded a fall, all the domestic balances are at or near historically high levels in both sectors, and all are higher than their average 2007 pre-recession levels. The manufacturing sector’s net balance for domestic sales rose from +36% in Q4 2013 to +38% in Q1 2014, a joint all-time high for our survey. The balance for manufacturers’ domestic orders increased from +35% in Q4 2013 to +42% in Q1 2014, a new all-time high for our survey.
Manufacturers’ domestic orders balance rose by seven points to +42%
Service sector domestic orders balance rose by one point for the quarter to +33%
+42%
The service sector’s balance for domestic sales fell from +38% in Q4 2013 to +35% in Q1 2014, still a historically high level. The net balance for service domestic orders rose from +32% in Q4 2013 to +33% in Q1 2014, the best level since Q1 1997.
4
The Regions and Nations Perspective The Q1 2014 manufacturing balances for domestic sales were in positive territory in all regions and nations. In the case of manufacturing domestic orders, we find the same pattern, with all in positive territory in Q1. Comparing the manufacturing sector’s domestic performance across the various regions and nations, the strongest Q1 domestic manufacturing balances were in Wales for domestic sales at +50%, and the North East for domestic orders, at +56%. At the other extreme, the weakest Q1 net balances were in London and the South East for domestic sales, both at +21%, and in the South West for domestic orders at 16%.
Q1 14 +33%
The Q1 2014 service sector’s net balances for domestic sales were in positive territory in all regions and nations. In the case of service domestic orders, we find the same pattern, with all in positive territory in Q1 2014. Comparing the service sector’s domestic performance across the various regions and nations, the strongest Q1 domestic balances were in the East of England at +56% for domestic sales, and at +52% for domestic orders. At the other extreme, the weakest Q1 net service balances were in Scotland at +3% for domestic sales and at +13% for home orders.
Export sales and orders
Export orders 40
recession
M
recession
30
S
20
% Balance
10
Q. Excluding seasonal variation, export sales over the past 3 months are: Up/Same/Down
0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50
Q. Excluding seasonal variation, export orders over the past 3 months are: Up/Same/Down
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
2007
2009
2011
2013
Service Sector Manufacturing Sector
Export orders balances increase for manufacturing and services firms
The National Perspective The national export balances rose for both sectors in Q1 2014, and the service balances recorded new all-time highs. All the export balances are at historically high levels for both manufacturing and services, and all remain higher than their average pre-recession levels. The manufacturing balance for export sales increased from +35% in Q4 2013 to +40% in Q1 2014, the best level since Q4 1994. The manufacturing balance for export orders rose from +30% in Q4 to +35% in Q1, the best level since Q4 2010.
Manufacturers’ export sales increased by five points to +40%
The Regions and Nations Perspective The Q1 2014 manufacturing balances for export sales were in positive territory in all regions and nations. In the case of manufacturing export orders, we find the same pattern, with all in positive territory in Q1 2014. Comparing manufacturing export performances across the various regions and nations, the strongest Q1 export balances were in the Eastern region, at +58% for export sales and at +68% for export orders. At the other extreme, the weakest Q1 manufacturing net balances were in the East Midlands, at +7% for export sales and at +8% for export orders.
Service sector export sales balance increased to +38% in Q1 from +36% in Q4
+40%
The service balance for export sales increased by two points in Q1 2014 to +38%, a new all-time high for our survey. The service export orders balance increased by six points in Q1 to +39%, also a new all-time high for our survey.
+38% The Q1 2014 service sector balances for export sales were in positive territory in all regions and nations. In the case of service export orders, we find the same pattern, with all regions and nations in positive territory in Q1 2014. Comparing service sector export performances across the various regions and nations, the strongest Q1 balances were in the East of England region, at +73% for export sales and the South East at +71% for export orders. At the other extreme, the weakest Q1 service balances were in the North East, at +8% for export sales and at +7% for export orders.
5
Employment
Employment expectations 40
recession
recession
30 20
% Balance
10 0 -10 -20
Q. Over the past 3 months your workforce has: Increased/Remained Constant/Decreased Q. What changes do you expect to your workforce over the next 3 months: Increase/Remain Constant/Decrease
-30 -40 -50
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
2007
2009
2011
2013
Service Sector Manufacturing Sector
Both sectors record weaker but still positive backward-looking employment balances and stronger forward-looking balances The National Perspective The balance for employment in the services sector deteriorated from +29% in Q4 2013 to +16% in Q1 2014. This reversed the significant increase between Q2 2013 and Q4 2013 when the balance rose from +15% to +29%. The manufacturing employment balance also declined over the first quarter of 2014, from +33 in Q4 2013 to +31 in Q1 2014. The employment balances for both sectors remain above their long-term averages. In contrast, the forward-looking employment expectations balance for both manufacturing and services rose in Q1 2014. The employment expectations balance for the manufacturing sector +31% in Q4 2013 to +40% in Q1 2014, the highest on record. The services sector saw its employment expectations balance rise from +27% in Q4 2013, to +29% in Q1 2014. This indicates that employment in both sectors is expected to increase over the next quarter.
The employment expectations balance for the manufacturing sector rose nine points to +40%
+40%
The Regions and Nations Perspective The balance for employment in the services sector was highest in the South West (+29), followed by the West Midlands (+27%). London was the only region to record a zero balance indicating that services firms in the capital don’t expect their workforces to grow in the next quarter. The South West (+44%) also recorded the largest positive employment expectations balance among services firms, followed by the South East (+38%). Northern Ireland recorded the lowest employment expectations balance (+14%). The South West (+46%) recorded the highest manufacturing sector employment balance, followed by the North East (+40%) and the West Midlands (+38%). At the other end of the scale, the East of England recorded the lowest balance with a reading of +10%. The North East had the strongest employment expectations balance of +70%, followed by the West Midlands (+51) and the North West (+42). In contrast, Northern Ireland (+22%) recorded the weakest employment expectations balance in the manufacturing sector, followed by Scotland (+23%). The service sector backwardlooking employment balance fell 13 points to +16%
+16%
6
Recruitment difficulties
Q. If yes, were they for: a) Part-time jobs/Full-time jobs b) Temporary jobs/Permanent Jobs Q. Did you experience any difficulties finding suitable staff? Yes/No Q. If yes, for which of the following categories: Skilled manual and technical/Professional and managerial/Clerical/Un- and semi-skilled
% of firms with difficulty recruiting
Q. Have you attempted to recruit staff over the past 3 months: Yes/No
Recruitment difficulties 100
recession
M
recession
S
80
60
40
20
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Year
2011
2013
Service Sector Manufacturing Sector
Attempts to recruit fall for both manufacturing and services firms
The National Perspective In the manufacturing sector the percentage of firms that attempted to recruit new staff fell from 82% in Q4 2013 to 76% in Q1 2014. This was driven by a ten percentage point fall in the percentage of firms that tried to hire full-time staff (82% to 72%), which more than offset a two percentage point increase in the percentage of firms trying to recruit part-time staff (18% to 20%). The percentage of firms looking to hire on a permanent basis fell from 60% in Q4 2013 to 56% in Q1 2014. The percentage of firms trying to recruit temporary staff fell from 40% in Q4 2013 to 38% in Q1 2014. The percentage of manufacturing firms that experienced difficulties when recruiting fell over the past quarter from 81% in Q4 2013 to 72% in Q1 2014. The percentage of firms in the services sector that tried to hire also decreased over the last quarter, from 72% in Q4 2013 to 68% in Q1 2014. The share of service sector firms that attempted to recruit full-time staff fell from 73% in Q4 2013 to 64% in Q1 2014, outweighing the increase in percentage of services firms trying to recruit part-time staff (28% to 37%). Within the services sector, the percentage of firms trying to hire permanent staff increased from 61% in Q4 2013 to 66% in Q1 2014, the highest proportion since Q3 2008. The percentage of firms in the services sector that ran into difficulties when trying to hire rose slightly from 60% in Q4 2013 to 62% in Q1 2014. The share of manufacturing firms that experienced recruitment difficulties fell by nine percentage points in Q1
72%
The Regions and Nations Perspective Within the manufacturing sector, the East Midlands (93%) had the highest percentage of firms that tried to hire in Q1 2014. They were followed by the North East (87%) and the South West (82%). The South East had the lowest percentage with less than half (47%) of manufacturing firms looking to take on new employees. Manufacturing firms in Wales experienced the greatest amount of difficulty when attempting to hire new staff, with almost all (97%) firms reporting problems. Firms in the North East (77%) had the second highest level of difficulty, followed by the South West (74%). Firms based in the South East (37%) experienced the fewest difficulties.
The share of firms in the service sector that experienced recruitment difficulties rose two percentage points in Q1
Q1 14 62%
Within the services sector, the East Midlands (87%) had the highest percentage of firms that tried to recruit in the first three months of 2014, followed by London (78%) and the North East (74%). Scotland recorded the lowest figure with just over half (51%) of firms attempting to hire, followed by Wales with 54%.Service sector firms in Wales experienced the greatest difficulties in hiring new staff with 95% of firms reporting problems. They were followed by the Scotland (71%) and the North East (68%). Firms based in Yorkshire and the Humber (48%) experienced the fewest difficulties.
7
Investment
Investment in plant and machinery 40 35
recession
recession
% Balance
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20
Q. Over the past 3 months, what changes have you made to your investment plans: a) For Plant and Machinery: Revised upwards/ Revised downwards/No change b) For Training: Revised upwards/ Revised downwards/No change
-25 -30 -35 -40
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
2007
2009
2011
2013
Service Sector Manufacturing Sector
Investment balances improve for manufacturing but are mixed for services
The National Perspective In the manufacturing sector the investment in plant & machinery balance increased from +32% in Q4 2013 to +37% in Q1 2014. The investment in training balance increased to +33%, from +29% in Q4 2013. This is an all-time high for the survey.
The manufacturing sector balance for plant & machinery investment increased five points to +37%
+37% The service sector continues to show improvement in investment in training, the investment in training balance increased from +26% to +30%. The investment in plant and machinery balance decreased to +23% from +24% in the previous quarter.
8
The Regions and Nations Perspective For the manufacturing sector the investment in plant and machinery balance remained positive across all regions. The strongest results were recorded in Wales (+62%) followed by Northern Ireland (+43%), West Midlands (+43%) and the South East (+40%). Similarly the investment in training balance was also positive across all regions. The highest results were recorded in Wales (+57%) followed by Northern Ireland (+41%). For the service sector all regions recorded a positive balance for investment in plant and machinery. The strongest positive balances were recorded in Wales at +41%. Similarly the investment in training balance recorded positive balances for all regions. The strongest result at +45% was recorded for Wales followed by the North East and the East of England (both at +36%). The service sector balance for training investment increased by four points to +30%
+30%
Business confidence
Confidence that profitability will improve 60
recession
recession
M
50 40
Se
30
% Balance
20 10 0 -10 -20
Q. Do you believe that over the next 12 months: a) Turnover will: Improve/Remain the same/ Worsen b) Profitability will: Improve/Remain the same/Worsen
-30 -40 -50
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Year
2009
2011
2013
Service Sector Manufacturing Sector
Confidence remains high for manufacturing and services sectors
The National Perspective All the national confidence balances remained at historically high levels in Q1 2014 for both turnover and profitability. In both manufacturing and services, all the confidence balances are higher than their average pre-recession levels. In both sectors, the profitability confidence balances remain weaker than the turnover balances in Q1 2014. Confidence that manufacturing turnover will improve in the next 12 months was +67% in Q1 2014, the same as in Q4 2013, and an equal all-time high. Confidence that manufacturing profitability will improve in the next 12 months fell marginally from +51% in Q4 2013 to +50% in Q1 2014, still a very high level and only just below the all-time high recorded last quarter. Manufacturers’ confidence that turnover will improve was unchanged at+67% for Q1 2014
+67%
Confidence that service sector turnover will improve over the next 12 months was +60% in Q1 2014, the same as in Q4 2013, and the joint highest level since Q3 1997. Confidence that service sector profitability will improve in the next 12 months rose from +45% in Q4 to +47% in Q1, the joint highest level since Q3 2007.
The Regions and Nations Perspective The Q1 2014 manufacturing balances for turnover confidence were in positive territory in all regions and nations. In the case of profitability confidence, we find the same pattern, with all regions and nations in positive territory in Q1. Comparing confidence levels across the various UK regions and nations, the strongest Q1 2014 manufacturing balances were in the West Midlands for turnover confidence at +78%, and in the East of England for profitability confidence, at +69%. At the other extreme, the weakest Q1 manufacturing balances were in the South West for turnover confidence, at +42%, and in Scotland for profitability confidence, at +22%.
Service sector confidence that profitability will improve rose by two points to +47%
+47%
In the service sector, the Q1 2014 balances for turnover confidence were in positive territory in all the regions and nations. In the case of profitability confidence, eleven regions and nations were in positive territory in Q1 2014, while one service balance was negative. Comparing service sector confidence across the various UK regions and nations, the strongest Q1 service sector balances were in the South East, at +77% for turnover confidence, and at +62% for profitability confidence. At the other extreme, the weakest Q1 service sector balances were in Scotland, at +12% for turnover confidence, and at -15% for profitability confidence.
9
Capacity utilisation and cashflow
Capacity utilisation
% Operating at full capacity
50
Q. Are you currently operating: At full capacity/Below full capacity Q. During the last 3 months how has your cashflow changed: Improved/Same/Worsened
recession
recession
40
30
20
10
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
2007
2009
2011
2013
Service Sector Manufacturing Sector
Capacity Utilisation rose for services Cashflow fell back for services but and fell for manufacturing, but remain remains above long-term average high for both sectors for both sectors CAPACITY UTILISATION
CASHFLOW
The National Perspective In the manufacturing sector the capacity utilisation result fell two percentage points to 44% in Q1 2014, two points below the peak seen in Q4 2007.
The National Perspective In the manufacturing sector the cashflow balance increased by one point to reach +13%. The cashflow balance is now 9 points below its peak last seen in Q3 2013.
In the services sector the percentage of firms stating that they were operating at full capacity edged upwards from 43% in Q4 to 46% in Q1. The Regions and Nations Perspective In the manufacturing sector the highest proportion of firms reporting that they were operating at full capacity was recorded in Scotland (76%) exceeding the national average of 44%, followed by London (61%) and the South West (51%). The region with the lowest capacity utilisation figure was the East of England (25%). In the services sector the two regions reporting the highest capacity utilisation figure were London (61%), followed by Wales (46%). The lowest figure was recorded in the North East, East Midlands and the South West (all at 37%).
The percentage of manufacturers operating at full capacity fell two points to 44%
44%
10
The service sector cashflow balance fell one point to +15% in Q1 2014
-6%
Q1 14 +15%
In the service sector the cashflow balance decreased by one point to +15%. The balance remains six points below its peak last seen in Q4 1997. The Regions and Nations Perspective In the manufacturing sector the highest balances were recorded in London (29%), South West (28%) followed North West (25%). Negative balances were recorded in North East (-18%), Scotland (-10%) and East Midlands (-8%). In the services sector, the highest balances were recorded in the South West (31%), East of England (26%), and South East (21%). Northern Ireland was the only region that recorded a negative balance (-6%).
Prices
Expectations to increase prices 50
recession
40
Q. Over the next 3 months, do you expect the price of your goods/services to: Increase/Remain the same/Decrease
% Balance
30
Q. Is your business currently suffering pressures to raise prices from any of the following: Pay settlements/Raw material prices/Finance costs/ Other overheads
20
10
0
-10
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Year
2009
2011
2013
Service Sector Manufacturing Sector
Intentions to raise prices fall back for manufacturing but increase for services
The National Perspective The prices balances continued to fall in Q1 for manufacturing firms but climbed upwards for services firms. For manufacturing the price balance was down six points to +24%. Of the factors identified as contributing to price pressures 53% identified raw materials costs, down 12 percentage points on Q4 13. There was a fall in the share of firms which identified financial costs (down five percentage points to 13%). There was an increase in the share of manufacturing firms which identified pay settlements (up two percentage points to 28%) and a slight decrease in other overheads (down two percentage point to 42%). For the service sector the prices balance increased by two points to +29%. All the factors identified as contributing to price pressures saw a decrease apart from pay settlements. There was an increase in the share of service firms which identified pay settlements (up one percentage point to 23%), raw material prices (down five percentage points to 18%). There was a fall in the share of service firms which identified finance costs (down two percentage points to 15%) and other overheads (down three percentage points to 38%).
For manufacturing the price balance decreased by seven points to +24%
The Regions and Nations Perspective In the manufacturing sector the South East (+35%), West Midlands (+31%) and the North West (30%) recorded the highest price balances. Scotland recorded the lowest with a -2% balance. This was followed by the North East (+6%), Wales (+11%) and Northern Ireland (+17%). Raw material prices were identified across most regions as the factor contributing most to price pressures. In the services sector, price balances were positive across all the regions and nations. The highest balance was recorded by the North West and the East of England (both at +35%). This was followed by London (+31%) the East Midlands (+30%) and Wales (+30%). In all regions raw materials and/or other overheads were identified as the main contributing factors to price rises.
For the services sector the price balance figure rose two points to +29%
+29%
+24%
11
External factors
External factors 35
% More of a concern
30
25 20
15 10
5
Q. Please indicate which of the following factors are more of a concern to your business than 3 months ago: Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/ Business Rates/Inflation/Competition/Tax
0
Interest rates
Exchange rates
Business rates
Inflation
Competition
Taxation Manufacturing Services
Concerns about interest rates increased for both manufacturing and services Manufacturing Manufacturing firms, at the national level, recorded divergent movements in their anxiety levels in Q1 2014, but there were more declines than increases. Inflation worries fell from 40% to 33%, but remained manufacturers’ biggest area of anxiety; medium-sized firms, at 39%, expressed the biggest concern. Competition worries eased from 34% to 29%, and were the second equal largest area of anxiety; micro firms (33%) expressed the biggest concern. Exchange rate worries edged up from 28% to 29%, and were also the second equal largest area of anxiety. Medium-sized firms (34%) expressed the highest concern. Interest rate concerns rose from 13% to 16%; small firms (20%) signalled the highest level. Corporate taxation concerns fell from 24% to 19%; micros and mediumsized firms, both at 27%, signalled the highest level. Business rate worries eased from 21% to 20%; small firms, at 26%, signalled the highest level.
Services Service sector firms, at the national level, also recorded divergent movements in their anxiety levels in Q1 2014, and there were more declines than increases. Inflation worries fell from 34% to 32%, but became the biggest area of anxiety for service firms; small firms (38%) signalled the highest concern. Competition worries fell from 35% to 29%, and were the second biggest area of anxiety for service firms; micro service firms (at 32%) signalled the highest level. Corporate taxation worries stayed unchanged at 19%; medium-sized firms (33%) signalled the highest concern. Business rate worries fell from 23% to 19%; small firms (25%) signalled the highest level. Exchange rate worries eased from 14% to 11%; small firms (16%) signalled the highest concern. Interest rate concerns rose from 16% to 18%; medium firms (23%) signalled the highest level. Service sector firms are much less concerned than manufacturers over exchange rates; but they are slightly more worried over interest rates.
Manufacturing
Services
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Unweighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Weighted
Unweighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Weighted
% Interest rates
17
18
13
16
16
17
16
18
% Exchange rates
27
27
28
29
14
13
14
11
% Business rates
26
24
21
20
24
22
23
19
% Inflation
34
33
40
33
30
32
34
32
% Competition
37
32
34
29
36
31
35
29
% Tax
27
21
24
19
21
18
19
19
12
National Totals Manufacturing 1-19
20-199
200-499
500+
All (Unweighted)
All (weighted)
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
24
32
35
44
26
41
44
25
33
41
36
38
Domestic orders
17
31
38
42
27
43
40
37
29
41
35
42
Export sales
23
37
34
39
40
53
34
18
32
46
35
40
Export orders
23
37
34
35
40
49
24
13
26
42
30
35
Employment last 3 months
15
22
36
31
22
34
43
25
24
29
33
31
Employment next 3 months
21
28
38
40
29
42
25
38
29
36
31
40
% Tried to recruit
55
45
77
70
86
88
85
74
72
66
82
76
% Part-time
48
37
14
24
15
16
11
13
24
26
18
20
% Full-time
70
80
88
78
87
60
77
67
78
77
82
72
% Temporary
47
27
40
40
49
46
29
28
63
60
40
38
% Permanent
67
90
63
63
53
49
60
46
40
42
60
56
% Recruitment difficulties
54
72
95
68
101
73
107
60
74
70
81
72
% Skilled manual
31
57
46
44
60
40
63
39
40
46
41
47
% Professional/managerial
15
18
36
31
54
44
63
42
31
30
36
38
% Clerical
12
9
15
10
19
7
13
7
15
10
15
9
% Semi and unskilled
15
23
18
20
11
8
9
6
13
14
12
13
Cashflow
8
14
10
16
24
19
6
7
12
18
12
13
Investment - plant/machinery
16
28
34
38
37
42
33
33
28
32
32
37
Investment - training
27
27
35
34
32
35
20
34
29
26
29
33
Confidence - turnover
55
61
67
70
52
65
73
54
62
70
67
67
Confidence - profitability
43
47
54
61
51
45
46
34
49
56
51
50
% Full capacity
43
39
44
51
40
46
49
29
42
44
46
44
Prices
27
29
30
31
28
29
33
14
29
28
31
24
% Pay settlements
18
14
29
24
34
49
13
19
26
23
26
28
% Raw materials
62
57
53
51
66
68
69
38
58
51
65
53
% Financial costs
19
16
27
19
26
16
8
8
17
14
18
13
% Other overheads
51
41
45
40
46
46
29
31
50
43
44
42
Number of companies
890
908
997
955
139
117
67
66
2093
2046
Number of employees
7043
6876
60218
59460
40549
37313
102967
244223
210777
347872
Number of exporters
570
594
720
698
109
91
50
43
1449
1426
13
National Totals Services 1-19
Q4 13
20-199
Q1 14
200-499
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
500+
All (Unweighted)
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
All (weighted)
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
23
27
41
39
47
55
49
20
29
31
38
35
Domestic orders
13
26
34
35
41
56
47
20
21
30
32
33
Export sales
33
33
34
39
39
30
41
41
35
37
36
38
Export orders
30
33
31
39
45
45
41
39
30
38
33
39
Employment last 3 months
9
8
33
28
40
44
36
-16
16
15
29
16
Employment next 3 months
18
23
29
38
35
34
24
13
21
26
27
29
% Tried to recruit
42
33
81
75
91
88
79
82
54
45
72
68
% Part-time
42
46
28
34
21
39
31
43
34
40
28
37
% Full-time
60
55
74
67
80
62
69
59
67
62
73
64
% Temporary
39
44
43
39
40
40
68
33
39
39
40
35
% Permanent
63
58
62
66
60
61
37
69
61
62
61
66
% Recruitment difficulties
58
59
64
58
61
60
54
84
60
59
60
62
% Skilled manual
22
26
22
25
19
20
17
18
21
24
20
23
% Professional/managerial
27
28
31
34
40
39
32
42
29
32
31
34
% Clerical
12
15
15
15
14
11
8
13
15
15
13
14
% Semi and unskilled
9
13
13
9
10
12
9
31
11
11
11
14
Cashflow
8
9
18
16
18
28
26
9
11
11
16
15
Investment - plant/machinery
12
15
26
27
28
26
37
29
18
19
24
23
Investment - training
18
21
22
34
36
27
30
32
22
28
26
30
Confidence - turnover
56
58
65
67
58
49
60
63
56
57
60
60
Confidence - profitability
45
47
45
51
49
27
45
56
43
45
45
47
% Full capacity
33
35
45
41
55
52
47
64
37
38
43
46
Prices
23
24
28
30
34
45
24
16
27
30
27
29
% Pay settlements
16
13
28
25
20
46
23
22
19
18
22
23
% Raw materials
19
19
27
21
29
12
21
15
21
19
23
18
% Financial costs
18
15
19
20
17
8
14
13
18
17
17
15
% Other overheads
40
37
43
45
47
45
36
23
43
39
41
38
Number of companies
4027
3809
1501
1315
202
159
169
150
5899
5433
Number of employees
22101
22437
87047
74955
58207
46941
507300
498611
674655
642944
Number of exporters
1927
1901
738
640
94
80
79
90
2859
2713
14
Regions and Nations Disaggregation Manufacturing SC
NE
NW
YH
EM
WM
W
NI
EA
SE
SW
L
Nat
Domestic sales
31
30
44
49
30
44
50
28
43
21
42
21
38
Domestic orders
29
56
41
50
25
40
50
30
43
33
16
53
42
Export sales
28
50
44
44
7
34
37
18
58
51
20
40
40
Export orders
24
45
40
33
8
21
35
19
68
49
18
31
35
Employment last 3 months
30
40
36
25
28
38
23
18
10
11
46
35
31
Employment next 3 months
23
70
42
31
39
51
25
22
26
34
41
25
40
% Tried to recruit
67
87
76
67
93
77
57
57
68
47
82
66
76
% Part-time
13
17
37
37
16
8
11
25
11
29
10
20
% Full-time
87
83
63
63
84
92
89
75
40
48
90
72
% Temporary
44
34
43
34
36
24
46
29
38
50
32
38
% Permanent
56
66
57
66
64
44
54
71
32
50
53
56
% Recruitment difficulties
66
77
66
47
55
67
97
66
49
37
74
58
72
% Skilled manual
46
76
43
38
100
44
72
53
31
21
34
31
47
% Professional/managerial
53
42
21
23
77
43
65
41
21
13
51
30
38
% Clerical
14
1
27
7
3
10
17
4
4
2
5
0
9
% Semi and unskilled
16
3
16
8
3
12
31
3
6
8
20
29
13
Cashflow
-10
-18
25
24
-8
16
6
0
23
17
28
29
13
Investment - plant/machinery
15
43
25
24
32
43
62
34
38
40
19
36
37
Investment - training
37
41
29
21
25
32
57
20
33
25
35
33
33
Confidence - turnover
48
75
64
73
61
78
56
45
68
61
42
56
67
Confidence - profitability
22
33
50
59
52
62
54
34
69
39
26
48
50
% Full capacity
76
39
36
38
26
26
40
40
25
33
51
61
44
Prices
-2
6
30
21
28
31
11
17
24
35
21
20
24
% Pay settlements
23
51
28
21
21
25
15
19
43
21
44
16
28
% Raw materials
78
57
46
44
46
50
56
67
57
35
49
24
53
% Financial costs
4
11
11
12
16
8
33
11
22
14
3
14
13
40
45
40
26
47
36
26
55
43
34
31
36
42
% Other overheads
Key SC Scotland NE North East NW North West YH Yorkshire and the Humber EM East Midlands WM West Midlands W Wales NI Northern Ireland EA Eastern SE South East SW South West L London Nat National
15
Regions and Nations Disaggregation Services SC
NE
NW
YH
EM
WM
W
NI
EA
SE
SW
L
Nat
Domestic sales
3
36
37
39
42
46
27
39
56
40
46
25
35
Domestic orders
13
33
35
36
36
42
24
27
52
41
35
25
33
Export sales
8
31
46
49
37
17
12
73
70
17
24
38
Export orders
7
28
46
46
39
16
9
68
71
18
33
39
Employment last 3 months
0
13
21
25
23
27
14
9
25
25
29
0
16
Employment next 3 months
0
25
30
34
35
34
26
14
33
38
44
35
29
% Tried to recruit
51
74
68
62
87
66
54
58
65
66
62
78
68
% Part-time
28
39
40
52
34
30
27
36
34
56
29
37
% Full-time
72
61
60
48
66
70
73
64
66
44
71
64
% Temporary
32
33
36
43
41
40
37
36
30
62
20
35
% Permanent
68
67
64
57
59
60
63
64
70
38
80
66
% Recruitment difficulties
71
68
61
48
53
56
95
63
52
59
64
63
62
% Skilled manual
34
34
35
19
21
21
41
17
14
21
23
10
23
% Professional/managerial
36
43
25
25
33
32
56
37
36
38
36
28
34
% Clerical
5
10
32
8
12
14
39
16
14
11
17
8
14
% Semi and unskilled
9
10
10
9
7
14
33
9
8
8
13
29
14
Cashflow
9
-6
9
19
17
15
11
3
26
21
31
14
15
Investment - plant/machinery
17
26
18
24
31
24
41
20
38
26
25
17
23
Investment - training
22
36
31
26
31
35
45
21
36
32
27
24
30
Confidence - turnover
12
52
52
68
66
63
54
49
70
77
71
65
60
Confidence - profitability
-15
39
43
57
55
54
47
39
50
62
60
53
47
37
44
42
37
39
46
40
45
42
37
61
46
22
35
22
30
23
30
25
35
27
26
31
29
% Full capacity Prices
29
% Pay settlements
22
31
20
20
20
21
23
18
20
29
20
26
23
% Raw materials
36
24
16
16
26
19
25
18
21
16
19
6
18
% Financial costs
13
21
16
11
13
13
20
17
14
18
10
17
15
% Other overheads
21
40
35
25
36
47
30
40
36
44
42
42
38
Key SC Scotland NE North East NW North West YH Yorkshire and the Humber EM East Midlands WM West Midlands W Wales NI Northern Ireland EA Eastern SE South East SW South West L London Nat National
16
Scotland Manufacturing Unweighted
Services
Weighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
22
24
33
31
13
-4
20
3
Domestic orders
18
22
32
29
-2
11
8
13
Export sales
0
17
21
28
Export orders
5
11
24
24
Employment last 3 months
15
15
30
30
-2
-7
1
0
Employment next 3 months
12
14
28
23
-5
-9
0
0
% Tried to recruit
45
49
69
67
36
30
44
51
% Part-time % Full-time % Temporary % Permanent % Recruitment difficulties
66
59
62
66
42
69
33
71
% Skilled manual
38
48
38
46
26
38
21
34
% Professional/managerial
31
36
44
53
16
31
13
36
% Clerical
10
7
14
14
21
6
17
5
% Semi and unskilled
24
18
23
16
5
13
4
9
Cashflow
-5
-3
-24
-10
6
6
6
9
Investment - plant/machinery
11
14
23
15
0
2
12
17
Investment - training
17
10
43
37
2
4
3
22
Confidence - turnover
29
34
48
48
13
7
21
12
Confidence - profitability
14
15
2
22
-12
-19
-5
-15
% Full capacity
70
73
74
76
Prices
24
19
7
-2
43
35
37
29
% Pay settlements
31
27
22
23
42
22
36
22
% Raw materials
65
66
83
78
45
48
41
36
% Financial costs
9
9
4
4
21
19
18
13
% Other overheads
41
32
26
40
17
26
21
21
Number of companies
68
92
53
54
Number of employees
6639
10194
1748
2567
Number of exporters
42
64 Manufacturing
Services 35 30
40
25
% BALANCE
The latest survey results for Scotland are mixed. Overall the manufacturing indicators are in a healthy position and while some service sector results were strong, such as the level of domestic orders, the reported decrease in the domestic sales balance is concerning.
35
20
Although economic recovery continues, it is clear that some fragile economic conditions still persist and that businesses still need more support to help them grow and create jobs. Recent budget announcements were welcomed, however, in order to reduce financial burden on Scottish businesses, we would encourage further action on business rates, air passenger duty and fuel and alcohol duties. The results of our Quarterly Business Survey in mid April will have more detail on specific sectors. Liz Cameron, Chief Executive, Scottish Chambers of Commerce
% BALANCE
30 25
15
20 15 10
10
+31%
+38%
5 0
Domestic Sales
+28%
+40%
Export Sales
National
5 0
+29%
+35% +3%
Domestic Sales
0% Employment Expectations
National Scotland
Scotland
17
North East Manufacturing Unweighted
Services
Weighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
26
34
10
30
40
35
42
36
Domestic orders
23
40
9
56
33
39
30
33
Export sales
22
49
30
50
14
6
14
8
Export orders
22
47
30
45
12
8
10
7
Employment last 3 months
28
34
10
40
27
17
38
13
Employment next 3 months
50
48
19
70
27
29
25
25
% Tried to recruit
78
72
40
87
60
63
75
74
% Part-time
13
24
14
13
35
32
45
28
% Full-time
88
76
62
87
65
68
71
72
% Temporary
100
35
20
44
38
38
48
32
% Permanent
0
61
38
56
63
62
68
68
% Recruitment difficulties
76
85
49
77
58
56
56
68
% Skilled manual
52
82
40
76
26
32
25
34
% Professional/managerial
36
35
35
42
41
34
38
43
% Clerical
4
3
1
1
10
12
9
10
% Semi and unskilled
12
6
4
3
9
12
8
10
Cashflow
0
11
11
-18
24
6
25
-6
Investment - plant/machinery
17
36
-4
43
20
15
29
26
Investment - training
21
33
8
41
27
26
35
36
Confidence - turnover
59
65
22
75
67
61
65
52
Confidence - profitability
50
61
18
33
60
53
60
39
% Full capacity
13
32
4
39
44
34
45
37
Prices
25
13
20
6
19
22
18
22
% Pay settlements
34
34
13
51
15
21
17
31
% Raw materials
59
42
43
57
21
20
24
24
% Financial costs
28
21
21
11
22
21
23
21
% Other overheads
72
45
48
45
47
42
42
40
Number of companies
32
53
183
199
Number of employees
2343
13031
13783
14833
Number of exporters
25
40
42
54
Mark Stephenson, Policy and Research Manager, North East Chamber of Commerce
18
Manufacturing
Services
50 40
40
% BALANCE
35
30 20
+30%
+38%
+50%
+40%
10
% BALANCE
Businesses have started 2014 in much the same mood as they finished 2013 – which was a very positive year. Confidence is growing for manufacturers’ and is high for service firms; yet what is also clear is that wage and other cost pressures are having an impact on the potential for future profitability. Nevertheless, North East businesses have come a very long way in 12 months and across the board are reporting increased activity within their respective markets as well as a clear desire to take on staff.
30 25 20 15 10
0
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
0
National North East
+36%
+35%
+38% +8%
5
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
National North East
North West Manufacturing Unweighted
Services
Weighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
28
36
34
44
29
32
33
37
Domestic orders
24
29
32
41
21
28
28
35
Export sales
32
25
32
44
20
20
29
31
Export orders
27
21
15
40
14
15
20
28
Employment last 3 months
21
28
17
36
18
16
20
21
Employment next 3 months
23
36
17
42
21
25
21
30
% Tried to recruit
52
56
72
76
45
46
66
68
% Part-time
20
21
23
17
39
41
40
39
% Full-time
80
79
77
83
61
59
60
61
% Temporary
31
26
40
34
33
31
33
33
% Permanent
69
74
60
66
67
69
67
67
% Recruitment difficulties
61
63
61
66
63
60
64
61
% Skilled manual
52
50
46
43
30
34
30
35
% Professional/managerial
13
18
12
21
28
27
28
25
% Clerical
28
21
36
27
27
30
29
32
% Semi and unskilled
16
20
12
16
16
11
15
10
Cashflow
11
3
19
25
7
7
10
9
Investment - plant/machinery
20
23
24
25
12
13
16
18
Investment - training
19
29
22
29
19
24
24
31
Confidence - turnover
53
56
54
64
50
55
47
52
Confidence - profitability
40
39
45
50
41
46
35
43
% Full capacity
34
37
36
36
36
40
37
44
Prices
25
28
22
30
26
29
28
35
% Pay settlements
24
24
32
28
17
16
19
20
% Raw materials
55
52
55
46
17
14
18
16
% Financial costs
15
14
9
11
14
13
16
16
% Other overheads
40
36
41
40
36
34
42
35
Number of companies
377
365
865
853
Number of employees
32569
93174
81269
183432
Number of exporters
242
241
429
431
Manufacturing
Services 40
50
35
% BALANCE
40
% BALANCE
The Q1 2014 results are very encouraging for the North West. They key domestic and export indicators, for manufacturing and services, have increased and are high levels historically. Domestic sales climbed 10 points for manufacturers and four points for service firms. Export sales returned similar levels of increase. The employment indicators are also positive. And this is especially true for manufacturers; the employment balance for the last three months increased by almost 20 points. Therefore it is no surprise to see all firms are more confident about the next 12 months. But challenges remain and the government must ensure business growth is a priority for the rest of this Parliament.
30 20
+44%
+38%
+44%
+40%
10 0
30 25 20 15 10
+37%
+35%
+31%
+38%
5 0
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
National North West
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
National North West
Christian Spence, Head of Business Intelligence, Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce
19
Yorkshire & the Humber Manufacturing Unweighted
Services
Weighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
31
35
32
49
38
33
44
39
Domestic orders
27
35
30
50
33
30
39
36
Export sales
28
33
37
44
33
38
40
46
Export orders
25
28
30
33
30
36
35
46
Employment last 3 months
24
22
17
25
17
16
21
25
Employment next 3 months
28
28
23
31
23
26
29
34
% Tried to recruit
62
49
70
67
50
42
68
62
% Part-time
14
36
13
37
14
42
10
40
% Full-time
86
64
87
63
86
58
90
60
% Temporary
40
40
54
43
35
36
35
36
% Permanent
60
60
46
57
65
64
65
64
% Recruitment difficulties
59
49
69
47
67
47
71
48
% Skilled manual
17
37
24
38
27
20
32
19
% Professional/managerial
18
21
30
23
21
21
24
25
% Clerical
4
5
2
7
9
9
9
8
% Semi and unskilled
10
9
6
8
9
10
9
9
Cashflow
12
14
14
24
14
14
18
19
Investment - plant/machinery
25
22
29
24
19
19
24
24
Investment - training
17
15
21
21
19
18
25
26
Confidence - turnover
66
69
56
73
69
67
70
68
Confidence - profitability
52
56
57
59
59
58
59
57
% Full capacity
40
37
36
38
44
39
48
42
Prices
25
19
22
21
20
20
19
22
% Pay settlements
16
17
28
21
12
13
16
20
% Raw materials
54
47
54
44
19
16
20
16
% Financial costs
14
11
17
12
12
12
13
11
% Other overheads
37
22
36
26
25
25
23
25
Number of companies
369
326
1343
896
Number of employees
32718
51158
183155
81547
Number of exporters
225
196
344
241
Manufacturing
40
40
Mark Goldstone, Head of Business
20 Representation, Leeds Chamber of Commerce
% BALANCE
50
30 20
The economy is recovering and there was much in the Chancellor’s recent budget that should help business growth in the longerterm. But more can be done. The quality of infrastructure continues to hold businesses back from achieving their full potential. This is one area that we would like to see more immediate action from government.
Services
50
% BALANCE
Businesses in Yorkshire & the Humber returned strong results yet again this quarter. The most encouraging results were the increase in the domestic market indicators in the manufacturing sector. Both domestic sales and orders are at historically high levels for manufacturers and are also strong for services firms (although they fell back from the very high levels seen at the end of 2013).
30
+49%
+38%
10 0
Domestic Sales
20
+44%
+40%
Export Sales
+39%
+35%
+46%
+38%
10 0
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
National
National
Yorks & Humber
Yorks & Humber
East Midlands Manufacturing Unweighted
Services
Weighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
42
33
45
30
38
37
43
42
Domestic orders
32
38
37
25
30
35
36
36
Export sales
34
38
44
7
38
39
48
49
Export orders
32
36
32
8
31
40
44
46
Employment last 3 months
45
24
54
28
16
15
23
23
Employment next 3 months
26
31
22
39
23
30
27
35
% Tried to recruit
58
88
81
93
67
74
80
87
% Part-time
22
49
24
37
47
54
46
52
% Full-time
78
51
76
63
53
46
54
48
% Temporary
36
100
41
34
41
43
41
43
% Permanent
57
0
59
66
59
57
59
57
% Recruitment difficulties
60
44
69
55
85
53
88
53
% Skilled manual
100
34
100
100
29
22
29
21
67
20
100
77
57
28
63
33
% Clerical
9
5
11
3
19
11
17
12
% Semi and unskilled
27
5
23
3
18
6
17
7
% Professional/managerial
Cashflow
16
5
15
-8
7
10
13
17
Investment - plant/machinery
29
31
33
32
20
25
22
31
Investment - training
25
32
32
25
20
25
27
31
Confidence - turnover
67
67
71
61
57
63
62
66
Confidence - profitability
50
50
55
52
45
50
44
55
% Full capacity
36
36
39
26
31
32
43
37
Prices
28
34
24
28
17
29
15
30
% Pay settlements
31
18
36
20
23
20
19
21
% Raw materials
45
56
38
46
22
23
27
26
% Financial costs
20
14
18
16
28
15
31
13
% Other overheads
36
40
33
47
26
42
23
36
Number of companies
236
249
519
539
Number of employees
24512
80506
33334
62144
Number of exporters
136
142
169
193
It is clear the economy is growing at a decent level but there is more the government can do to ensure the recovery is sustainable and lasts for the long-term.
Paul Griffiths, Chief Executive, Northamptonshire Chamber of Commerce
Manufacturing
Services 50
40 35
40
% BALANCE
30
% BALANCE
We saw another impressive set of results from service sector businesses in the East Midlands this quarter. The key balances remain at historically high levels and it is not a surprise to see a noticeable increase in confidence amongst service firms in the region. The manufacturing results were mixed. While all indicators are still far stronger than during the recession, some did experience a fall on the Q4 2013 levels. But overall confidence levels are still strong for the sector and that is encouraging for the future.
25 20 15 10
+30%
+38%
0
+40% +7%
5
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
30 20 10 0
+42%
+35%
Domestic Sales
+49%
+38%
Export Sales
National
National
East Midlands
East Midlands
21
West Midlands Manufacturing Unweighted
Services
Weighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
33
39
37
44
34
38
43
46
Domestic orders
32
36
33
40
35
35
44
42
Export sales
33
27
33
34
30
31
36
37
Export orders
33
23
39
21
24
33
28
39
Employment last 3 months
24
27
33
38
21
16
28
27
Employment next 3 months
25
37
30
51
25
28
31
34
% Tried to recruit
60
61
70
77
47
45
66
66
% Part-time
20
15
27
16
34
34
34
34
% Full-time
80
85
73
84
66
66
66
66
% Temporary
100
100
47
36
36
40
36
41
% Permanent
0
0
53
64
64
60
64
59
% Recruitment difficulties
57
61
63
67
51
55
52
56
% Skilled manual
49
49
50
44
17
20
18
21
% Professional/managerial
26
28
38
43
33
30
35
32
% Clerical
12
8
15
10
11
15
10
14
% Semi and unskilled
12
16
12
12
14
13
13
14
Cashflow
14
11
31
16
16
12
17
15
Investment - plant/machinery
31
35
41
43
15
21
19
24
Investment - training
27
27
32
32
23
27
28
35
Confidence - turnover
56
68
59
78
62
66
61
63
Confidence - profitability
54
57
59
62
50
56
48
54
% Full capacity
34
35
31
26
41
34
45
39
Prices
25
27
32
31
27
24
28
23
% Pay settlements
21
21
22
25
14
15
20
21
% Raw materials
54
48
62
50
19
17
21
19
% Financial costs
19
12
17
8
18
14
18
13
% Other overheads
50
43
49
36
48
42
52
47
Number of companies
392
343
855
792
Number of employees
45550
60073
210119
132784
Number of exporters
272
241
353
318
Louise Bennett, chief executive of the Coventry and Warwickshire Chamber of Commerce
22
Manufacturing
Services 50
40
40
30
30
20 10 0
% BALANCE
50
% BALANCE
Confidence among companies across this region remains strong, with manufacturers and service sector firms looking ahead to the next 12 months with a spring in their step. The manufacturing sector is particularly buoyant in this region and, as has been said for some time, a thriving manufacturing and engineering sector is crucial in rebalancing the economy. Again, the prospects for new jobs in both manufacturing and services is good and it bodes well for the coming year. That said, it’s important not to be complacent and the Government must do all it can to support employers, especially in their efforts to bring through the next generation of talent.
+44%
+38%
+34%
+40%
20 10
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
0
+46%
+35%
Domestic Sales
+37%
+38%
Export Sales
National
National
West Midlands
West Midlands
Wales Manufacturing Unweighted
Services
Weighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
38
37
44
50
30
30
25
27
Domestic orders
35
35
41
50
25
33
26
24
Export sales
27
32
39
37
22
26
37
17
Export orders
18
33
12
35
26
26
39
16
Employment last 3 months
28
23
49
23
16
13
24
14
Employment next 3 months
16
34
43
25
17
30
14
26
% Tried to recruit
62
53
72
57
52
37
76
54
% Part-time
21
15
9
8
21
31
24
30
% Full-time
79
85
91
92
79
69
94
70
% Temporary
18
34
9
24
26
39
30
40
% Permanent
82
66
91
44
74
61
84
60
% Recruitment difficulties
76
94
87
97
73
96
74
95
% Skilled manual
11
55
9
72
16
38
19
41
% Professional/managerial
31
42
46
65
43
51
50
56
% Clerical
21
25
31
17
30
33
37
39
% Semi and unskilled
27
41
20
31
19
30
25
33
Cashflow
2
4
28
6
11
12
28
11
Investment - plant/machinery
41
52
40
62
21
33
27
41
Investment - training
39
54
65
57
33
38
43
45
Confidence - turnover
71
63
78
56
57
59
63
54
Confidence - profitability
54
47
63
54
47
51
54
47
% Full capacity
41
37
55
40
41
40
38
46
Prices
23
19
31
11
21
20
22
30
% Pay settlements
20
18
17
15
16
15
23
23
% Raw materials
59
52
42
56
21
20
26
25
% Financial costs
14
17
33
33
17
20
19
20
% Other overheads
36
30
35
26
34
32
43
30
Number of companies
125
147
430
528
Number of employees
7977
8448
12661
16845
Number of exporters
70
71
105
135
Employment indicators are also mixed. There remains pressure in recruiting for certain roles and possible wage inflation where key staff needs to be protected or key skills acquired. Funding by Jobs Growth Wales and Apprenticeship schemes have been seen to be significant factors in the recent improvements.
Manufacturing
Services
50
40 35
40
% BALANCE
30
% BALANCE
The results in Wales this quarter either outperform or are consistent with the rest of the UK. The most encouraging indicators are the strength of the domestic market; with both sales and orders at high levels. Export activity is mixed. Manufacturers’ have reported an increase but for services they have fallen back.
25
30
20
20 10
+50%
+38%
+37%
+40%
15 Wales +27%
+6% 10
+35%
+17%
+38%
5
0
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
0
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
National
National
Wales
Wales
South Wales Chamber of Commerce
23
East of England Manufacturing Unweighted
Services
Weighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
13
35
18
43
32
55
39
56
Domestic orders
13
35
24
43
31
50
40
52
Export sales
59
53
63
58
67
75
70
73
Export orders
52
56
55
68
65
72
71
68
Employment last 3 months
10
11
7
10
22
25
30
25
Employment next 3 months
26
25
12
26
26
32
34
33
% Tried to recruit
76
59
87
68
50
48
76
65
% Part-time
23
21
17
25
19
36
13
36
% Full-time
77
79
83
75
81
64
87
64
% Temporary
40
30
41
29
33
38
33
36
% Permanent
60
70
59
71
67
62
67
64
% Recruitment difficulties
70
55
77
49
74
51
79
52
7
38
10
31
21
15
24
14
% Professional/managerial
37
19
48
21
31
34
37
36
% Clerical
9
6
10
4
10
13
9
14
% Semi and unskilled
6
11
9
6
10
7
8
8
% Skilled manual
3
9
21
23
10
23
7
26
Investment - plant/machinery
30
35
43
38
19
29
20
38
Investment - training
21
31
12
33
30
35
26
36
Confidence - turnover
47
68
42
68
65
73
73
70
Confidence - profitability
30
64
40
69
48
56
51
50
% Full capacity
27
26
22
25
36
43
45
45
Prices
30
22
31
24
27
33
34
35
% Pay settlements
23
22
38
43
14
17
23
20
% Raw materials
51
49
55
57
20
17
30
21
% Financial costs
21
16
24
22
13
13
12
14
% Other overheads
44
43
34
43
48
39
52
36
Cashflow
Number of companies
73
81
260
286
Number of employees
10933
10024
32773
27412
Number of exporters
69
77
231
268
Businesses in Norfolk and the East of England are feeling quietly confident about the economic future. Norfolk exporters are beating all records, but more businesses need to be encouraged to take that all important step to trading internationally. Support for exports has never been more important.
Manufacturing
Services 80
60
70
50
24
Caroline Williams, Chief Executive Norfolk Chamber of Commerce
% BALANCE
60
% BALANCE
The retail sector in Norwich remains vibrant, with the likes of John Lewis, Norwich reporting an increase in fashion sales and their online sales are also up by 20%. Last year Norwich International Airport grew at the second fastest rate among the top 30 UK airports, with a 17 per cent increase in total passengers numbers to 463,401 during 2013. Overall, we anticipate with strengthened business confidence to see a more robust Norfolk economy.
40
50 40
30
30
20 10 0
+43%
+38%
Domestic Sales
+58% +40%
20 10
Export Sales
0
+56%
+35%
Domestic Sales
+73%
+38%
Export Sales
National
National
East of England
East of England
South East Manufacturing Unweighted
Services
Weighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
29
44
26
21
36
42
43
40
Domestic orders
26
44
32
33
17
34
34
41
Export sales
57
64
38
51
67
69
66
70
Export orders
59
60
40
49
64
70
66
71
Employment last 3 months
28
22
47
11
18
18
22
25
Employment next 3 months
46
40
37
34
28
31
27
38
% Tried to recruit
69
54
89
47
56
46
76
66
% Part-time
10
20
4
11
13
36
9
34
% Full-time
90
80
96
40
87
64
91
66
% Temporary
37
41
29
38
29
28
31
30
% Permanent
63
59
71
32
71
72
69
70
% Recruitment difficulties
81
58
78
37
68
57
68
59
% Skilled manual
19
44
30
21
14
22
15
21
% Professional/managerial
29
23
27
13
21
34
24
38
% Clerical
17
5
17
2
13
11
13
11
% Semi and unskilled
8
14
6
8
13
10
11
8
3
15
16
17
13
16
15
21
Investment - plant/machinery
26
35
27
40
25
23
31
26
Investment - training
36
27
29
25
21
31
25
32
Confidence - turnover
62
79
71
61
66
68
67
77
Cashflow
Confidence - profitability
38
62
32
39
50
56
49
62
% Full capacity
48
48
59
33
34
38
39
42
Prices
44
32
41
35
24
25
36
27
% Pay settlements
26
10
23
21
18
17
23
29
% Raw materials
54
40
70
35
18
15
20
16
% Financial costs
21
18
18
14
15
16
15
18
% Other overheads
47
39
48
34
47
41
48
44
Number of companies
90
82
411
305
Number of employees
16230
2974
30117
14501
Number of exporters
82
78
336
259
We welcomed many of the measures in the recent budget but the government must do more in areas such as skill, infrastructure and access to finance if the economy is going to continue to grow.
Christina Howell, Head of External Affairs, Thames Valley Chamber of Commerce
Manufacturing
Services
60 80
50
70
% BALANCE
40
60 50
30
40
20 10 0
% BALANCE
The South East results were strong this quarter. In the service sector the most encouraging results were with the export indicators. The net balance for export sales is at +70% and for export orders it is at +71%. Both are very high by historical standards and outperform much of the country. The manufacturing export indicators are also strong and at high levels historically. The fall in the employment balance (although still positive) for the last three months is disappointing and a bit of a surprise. I think we will have to wait until the next quarter before we know if this is going to be a longer term trend.
+21%
+38%
Domestic Sales
+51%
+40%
30 20
Export Sales
National South East
+40%
+35%
+70%
+38%
10 0
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
National South East
25
South West Manufacturing Unweighted
Services
Weighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
36
37
44
42
37
42
44
46
Domestic orders
32
36
37
16
29
32
37
35
Export sales
23
25
36
20
16
16
20
17
Export orders
20
23
23
18
14
15
19
18
Employment last 3 months
20
24
33
46
20
22
27
29
Employment next 3 months
35
41
56
41
23
33
29
44
% Tried to recruit
73
51
93
82
74
38
86
62
% Part-time
54
53
16
29
69
59
38
56
% Full-time
46
48
84
48
31
41
62
44
% Temporary
56
55
56
50
61
63
60
62
% Permanent
44
45
44
50
39
37
40
38
% Recruitment difficulties
67
61
89
74
47
63
68
64
% Skilled manual
20
31
38
34
17
20
23
23
% Professional/managerial
21
31
27
51
18
35
30
36
% Clerical
6
9
9
5
7
16
10
17
% Semi and unskilled
11
19
15
20
7
14
11
13
Cashflow
14
13
14
28
18
28
25
31
Investment - plant/machinery
24
33
34
19
19
20
29
25
Investment - training
16
18
20
35
16
21
23
27
Confidence - turnover
76
73
86
42
64
72
67
71
Confidence - profitability
64
62
76
26
53
61
52
60
% Full capacity
40
37
46
51
37
34
47
37
Prices
25
22
10
21
25
24
26
26
% Pay settlements
14
18
25
44
12
13
20
20
% Raw materials
45
40
51
49
19
16
19
19
% Financial costs
11
7
5
3
14
9
13
10
43
38
31
31
42
39
43
42
% Other overheads Number of companies
184
182
633
670
Number of employees
10037
6883
27048
46326
Number of exporters
158
162
535
538
Phil Smith, Managing Director, Business West
26
Services
50
50
40
40
% BALANCE
It is not all good news however, as the percentage that tried to recruit fell. This tells us, that despite the recovery so far, there is still work to be done and the government must build on the measures announced in the Budget to ensure that businesses have the confidence to invest, export and expand over the next year.
Manufacturing
% BALANCE
After a year of recovery in 2013, results from the first quarter of this year tell us that the market in the South West remains upbeat as all domestic sales remain strong. Expectations for turnover and profitability in the service sector next year have also increased with more businesses planning to take on staff in the next three months.
30
30
20
20 10 0
+42%
+38%
Domestic Sales
+20%
+40%
Export Sales
+46%
+35%
10 0
+17% Domestic Sales
+38%
Export Sales
National
National
South West
South West
London Manufacturing Unweighted
Services
Weighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
19
29
34
21
12
13
37
25
Domestic orders
28
39
40
53
8
15
32
25
Export sales
7
50
7
40
22
20
19
24
Export orders
21
45
15
31
25
22
23
33
Employment last 3 months
15
38
11
35
22
9
51
0
Employment next 3 months
32
25
34
25
29
34
38
35
% Tried to recruit
66
45
79
66
56
47
77
78
% Part-time
23
15
22
10
30
25
31
29
% Full-time
77
85
78
90
70
75
69
71
% Temporary
38
30
33
32
32
26
49
20
% Permanent
62
70
64
53
68
74
51
80
% Recruitment difficulties
59
62
51
58
44
54
41
63
% Skilled manual
31
38
32
31
13
15
9
10
% Professional/managerial
28
31
26
30
30
34
27
28
% Clerical
7
0
5
0
4
12
3
8
% Semi and unskilled
10
23
7
29
7
12
10
29
Cashflow
13
31
-1
29
5
4
19
14
Investment - plant/machinery
17
7
14
36
15
13
31
17
Investment - training
24
7
-7
33
27
30
29
24
Confidence - turnover
61
63
76
56
63
62
65
65
Confidence - profitability
46
52
67
48
49
51
54
53
% Full capacity
41
36
42
61
31
34
44
61
Prices
21
25
44
20
23
26
23
31
% Pay settlements
18
13
20
16
18
20
16
26
% Raw materials
33
39
59
24
19
16
21
6
% Financial costs
24
13
24
14
21
19
16
17
% Other overheads
51
45
53
36
53
45
47
42
Number of companies
45
31
99
96
Number of employees
10588
3000
39484
49461
Number of exporters
30
20
67
61
Colin Stanbridge, Chief Executive, London Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Manufacturing
Services
40
40
35
35
30
30
% BALANCE
% BALANCE
At the start of 2014, London businesses are increasingly confident in their own company prospects, as well as the UK’s and London’s economic outlook. Notable gains in several economic indicators, including manufacturers’ cashflow and domestic orders and services export sales, demonstrate a continuation of the positive growth trend seen over the course of 2013. Business confidence for the next 12 months is high, but vulnerabilities remain. London firms continue to suffer from a shortage of sufficiently skilled UK workers, while many businesses are reluctant to export owing to high travel costs. We were pleased to see the Chancellor’s Budget include a commitment to reform APD on long-haul flights, measures to improve UK Export Finance, and an expansion of apprenticeship grants to employers, all of which we had called and campaigned for in our Budget Submission.
25
25
20 15 10
20
+21% +38%
+40%
+40%
5 0
15 10
+25%
+35%
+24%
+38%
5
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
0
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
National
National
London
London
27
Northern Ireland Manufacturing Unweighted
Services
Weighted
Unweighted
Weighted
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q1 14
Domestic sales
25
24
33
28
21
28
34
39
Domestic orders
21
23
28
30
18
17
32
27
Export Sales
10
13
14
18
2
8
6
12
Export orders
8
13
12
19
1
4
6
9
Employment last 3 months
19
22
30
18
24
12
40
9
Employment next 3 months
24
23
12
22
25
22
39
14
% Tried to recruit
62
46
71
57
78
44
85
58
% Part-time
56
15
36
11
54
23
39
27
% Full-time
44
85
64
89
46
77
61
73
% Temporary
57
47
59
46
49
35
51
37
% Permanent
43
53
41
54
51
65
49
63
% Recruitment difficulties
75
57
84
66
69
55
79
63
% Skilled manual
35
41
39
53
36
15
35
17
% Professional/managerial
21
23
29
41
16
32
32
37
% Clerical
8
5
10
4
9
12
10
16
% Semi and unskilled
6
5
9
3
6
12
5
9
Cashflow
-6
-3
-12
0
1
1
24
3
Investment - plant/machinery
26
34
42
34
12
16
10
20
Investment - training
22
21
37
20
18
17
16
21
Confidence - turnover
56
46
61
45
46
47
54
49
Confidence - profitability
41
29
44
34
29
34
23
39
% Full capacity
33
38
38
40
41
38
40
40
Prices
22
25
38
17
17
20
13
25
% Pay settlements
16
19
17
19
23
21
40
18
% Raw materials
74
63
84
67
23
20
37
18
% Financial costs
21
14
20
11
20
16
18
17
% Other overheads
38
46
38
55
45
46
55
40
Number of companies
102
95
248
215
Number of employees
10681
8407
9164
11092
Number of exporters
98
94
212
210
Manufacturing
Services 40
35
35
30
30
25
More support for exporters is just one way the government can do more to ensure the recovery is a sustainable one. We have campaigned strongly about the negative message Air Passenger Duty is sending exporters and it was positive to see action taken in the Chancellor’s recent budget. However, we would like this to have gone much further, particularly given the impact of APD on Northern Ireland businesses.
28
Ann McGregor, Chief Executive, Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce
25
20 15 10
+28%
+38%
5 0
% BALANCE
40
% BALANCE
The Northern Ireland results for this quarter indicate steady growth in the economy for the first three months of this year. Most of the key domestic indicators are at a similar level to where they were at in Q4 2013. The most welcome results are in the export indicators. These indicators have been very low for a number of quarters so it is good to see an improvement on this occasion.
Domestic Sales
+40% +18% Export Sales
20 15
+39%
+38%
+35%
10
+12%
5 0
Domestic Sales
Export Sales
National
National
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
Further Enquiries
This report has been prepared by the British Chambers of Commerce. Further information about any of the region and nation surveys may be obtained from the following: National Coordinator: Tom Nolan, British Chambers of Commerce, 65 Petty France, London SW1H 9EU (020 7654 5800) Scotland Coordinator: Dominic Mellan, Scottish Chambers of Commerce (0141 204 8366) North East Coordinator: Mark Stephenson, North East Chamber of Commerce (0191 3861133) North West Coordinator: Christian Spence, Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce (0161 237 4045): Contributing Chambers: St Helens, Liverpool, North & West Lancashire, East Lancashire, Greater Manchester, Cumbria, South Cheshire Yorkshire & the Humber Coordinator: Tom Nolan (BCC); Contributing Chambers: Barnsley & Rotherham, Doncaster, Sheffield, Hull & Humber, West and North Yorkshire, and Mid Yorkshire Chambers
East Midlands Coordinator: Max Boden, Leicestershire Chamber of Commerce, (0116 204 6606): Contributing Chambers: Derby, Nottinghamshire & Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, Lincolnshire, West Midlands Coordinator: David Bharier, Birmingham Chamber of Commerce (0121 607 1814): Contributing Chambers: Coventry & Warwickshire, Birmingham, Black Country, Staffordshire, Shropshire, Hereford & Worcestershire Wales Coordinator: Graham Morgan, South Wales Chamber of Commerce (01633 242721); Contributing Chambers: South Wales, West Cheshire and North Wales
South East Coordinator: Tom Nolan (BCC); Contributing Chambers: Kent Invicta, Hampshire, Surrey, Sussex, Isle of Wight, Milton Keynes, Thames Valley and Kent Channel Chambers South West Coordinator: Tom Nolan (BCC); Contributing Chambers: Business West, Dorset, Cornwall, Somerset and Plymouth Chambers London Coordinator: Silviya Barrett, London Chamber Of Commerce and Industry, (020 7248 4444) Northern Ireland Coordinator: Oonagh O’Reilly (NICC) Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce (028 9024 4113)
Eastern Coordinator: Tom Nolan; Contributing Chambers: Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Norfolk and Suffolk Chambers
29
BRITISH CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE 65 PETTY FRANCE LONDON SW1H 9EU UNITED KINGDOM
T +44 (0)20 7654 5800 www.britishchambers.org.uk www.economicsurvey.org.uk Be part of Britain’s biggest and most influential business survey: #joinyourchamber