It's the Guns

David Hemenway, PhD

Compared to the more than 30 other high-income countries (e.g., Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom), the United States is an outlier in terms of firearm homicide, overall homicide, firearm suicide, and unintentional firearm deaths. For example, compared to children (aged 5-14) in the other high-income countries, a child in the United States is more than 25 times more likely than a child in these other countries to be a victim of gun homicide. When it comes to suicide, American children are almost ten times more likely to find a gun and kill themselves.

What can explain such enormous differences?

The U.S. is similar to these countries in terms of rates of non-gun crime, like assault, burglary, robbery, and motor vehicle theft (1). Evidence indicates that American children are similar to children in these other countries in terms of aggression and depression. What makes us different from the other high-income countries is that we have so many more guns—particularly handguns and military weapons—in private hands. In addition, we have the weakest gun laws.

In the U.S., many studies show that a gun in the home increases the risk of violent death in the home and that more guns in the community increases the risk of violent death in the community (2). For example, many studies have explained the large differences across the 50 states in their rates of homicides, suicides, and unintentional firearm death. The major explanation is not state levels of mental illness, crime, poverty, or alcohol consumption. It is the level of household gun ownership and the strength of each state’s gun laws.

Table 2 does not show the results of an actual study that includes all 50 states as well as many other possible risk factors. It simply illustrates the main findings of such studies by comparing the group of states with the highest and lowest levels of household gun ownership. The two groups of states are matched so that they have comparable populations, to allow for looking at numerators— the actual number of people dying. The lowest gun states, mostly from the Northeast, not only have relatively few guns, but also strong gun laws. The highest gun states, mostly Southern and mountain states, have many guns and weak gun laws.

In the most recent decade for which there are data (2011-2020), 127 children in the high-gun states died from an accidental shooting compared to five in the low-gun states. Overall, children in the low gun states were 6.1 times more likely to die from guns--9.9 times more likely to die from gun suicide and 3.4 times more likely to die in a gun homicide. They were 2.4 times more likely to die in a suicide or a homicide from all means combined.

Massachusetts is a low-gun state, with relatively strong gun laws. That is the key reason we have relatively low rates of suicide—and, for an urban state, low rates of homicide. It is why we have relatively low rates both of police being shot and killed and police killing civilians (3). It is why we have relatively low rates of mass murder. We would do even better in terms of gun homicides if neighboring states had fewer guns and stronger gun laws. Most crime guns in states with few guns and strong laws are trafficked from states with many guns and weak gun laws (4). While Massachusetts does better than most other U.S. states in terms of firearm deaths, we do much worse than the other high-income countries—which have even fewer guns (particularly handguns) and stronger gun laws.

What can you do to help reduce the rate of gun death in the U.S.? At the local level, you can promote local gun buybacks, attend gun-related hearings, and support groups advocating stronger gun laws like those in all other high-income countries.

But since crime guns easily move across state borders, working solely at the local level may not be enough. Federal action is needed. Yet for many decades, even though most Americans, including most gun owners, have wanted more reasonable gun laws, we have not been able to get them. This is largely because one of America’s two major political parties has become allied with the gun industry and have made gun issues part of their strategic platforms. The best thing that Americans can do is to give their time and money to help elect a Congress and executive branch that is more responsive to the needs of the average American than it is to the desires of the gun industry and gun lobby.

David Hemenway, PhD is Professor of Health Policy at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health.

References:

1. Hemenway D. Private Guns Public Health. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2017.

2. Stroebe W. Firearm possession and violent death: a critical review. Aggression and Violent Behavior. 2013; 18:709-721.

3. Hemenway D. Azrael D, Conner A, Miller M. Variation in rates of fatal police shootings across US states: the role of firearm availability. Journal of Urban Health. 2019; 96:63-73.

4. Collins T, Greenberg R, Siegel M, Xuan Z, Rothman EF, Cronin SW, Hemenway D. State firearm laws and interstate transfer of guns in the United States, 2006-16. Journal of Urban Health. 2018. 95:322-36.

5. Schell TL, Peterson S, Vegetabile BG, Scherling A, Smart R, Morral AR, State-level estimates of household firearm ownership. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2020. https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TL354.html.