THE PANDEMIC PLAYBOOK How to Navigate Market Volatility Caused by COVID-19
OUR PERSPECTIVE: No, This Isn’t 2008: Perspective on the Coronavirus Economy..........................3 Putting the COVID-19 Crash in Context ....................................................................5 How to Not Panic: A Brief Tutorial...............................................................................6 COVID-19 Stocks and the Three Bears: Historical Perspective on Bear Markets.....................................................................7
THINGS YOU CAN DO NOW: Choosing the Right Course During Market Volatility.............................................10 Protecting Yourself from Cyberattacks Amid COVID-19 Uncertainty................12 How Much Life Insurance is Right for You?..............................................................14
The opinions voiced in these articles are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk. Traditional IRA account owners should consider the tax ramifications, age and income restrictions in regards to executing a conversion from a Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. The converted amount is generally subject to income taxation. This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor. Rebalancing a portfolio may cause investors to incur tax liabilities and/or transaction costs and does not assure a profit or protect against a loss.
NO, THIS ISN’T 2008: PERSPECTIVE ON THE CORONAVIRUS ECONOMY
JIM CAHN Chief Investment Officer
With the prospect of an economic downturn looking increasingly likely, the question arises, what will the downturn look like? For many of us, the financial collapse of 2008 is still fresh in our minds. But that’s just one data point. It’s worth remembering that most downturns have looked nothing like 2008, and there are few reasons to believe this one will.
2008 represented unique circumstances
The post-2008 market decline and recession was driven by a collapse of the financial services sector. This constituted a double whammy. As the markets tanked, a liquidity crisis arose. People and business owners lost access to the credit necessary to keep their homes and businesses afloat. This resulted in a protracted recession. But after 2008, we enacted key reforms to enhance bank capital, greatly reducing probability of failure today.
The current equity market downturn is demand driven; businesses aren’t investing, and consumers aren’t spending. Demand-led downturns
tend to be shallower and recover faster than financially-led downturns. In contrast to 2008, banks will be in a place to lend and support growth as demand inevitably returns.
Fed actions bode well
Actions by the Federal Reserve evince a focus on avoiding the mistakes of 2008. The Fed’s surprise interest rate cut and commitment to $700 billion of bond-buying alleviated building liquidity stress in the Treasury and inter-bank markets. Again, unlike in 2008, credit will remain available to solid companies. The path of the 2008 financial crisis was a mystery at the time. In this case, while we are certainly in uncharted waters from a global health policy standpoint, a crisis resulting from a virus and infectious disease is better understood than banking system networks, hedge funds, high frequency traders, etc.
A recovery roadmap is coming together
As it pertains to the virus, we are starting to get a picture of what works. Looking at Asia (China, Taiwan and Korea), we have seen the fruits of containment and social distancing. If the U.S. follows increasingly strict containment procedures, which, per the administration, are likely to be lifted by July or August, peak infection appears likely to occur sometime in the next 30 or 60 days.
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Since Americans seem increasingly observant of recommended distancing measures, there is room for optimism. Pent-up demand created by social distancing and improved supply channels would point to an earnings recovery in the second half of 2020. Of course, none of this is to downplay the volatility we are seeing now. Until the measurable effects of virus containment strategies are known, the next 30 - 60 days will be extremely difficult to predict—even if economic collapse is unlikely.
Don’t time the markets. Look to the long term.
For this reason, it is unwise to attempt to time the markets. We are likely to see abnormal market movements, many of which will be driven by headlines as much as underlying factors. When volatility is high, it tends to stay high. That applies to market highs as well as lows.
This isn’t to say you should not reposition your portfolio at all.
Dips in the market often present buying opportunities.
Additionally, confounding factors have the potential to drive markets in either direction. An unexpectedly quick recovery or early arrival of a vaccine would obviously benefit markets. Saudi Arabia’s declaration of an oil war have shown how vulnerable markets can be to external forces. Still, from an economic standpoint, we are dealing with a devil we know. The lessons learned from 2008 will serve us well, and there are good reasons to believe that particular chapter of history will not repeat itself. Originally published on March 19, 2020
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PUTTING THE COVID-19 CRASH IN CONTEXT
JIM CAHN Chief Investment Officer
The only constant in the markets is the potential for volatility. Whether it’s the COVID-19 pandemic or some other national or global event, the markets always have the potential to ebb and flow with the changing times. It’s one of the many reasons we build diversified portfolios—you can’t avoid market risk altogether, but you can be better protected in the event of a downside surprise. In what follows, we’ll provide context as to the source of this particular bout of volatility, COVID-19, and why we think you should stay focused on progressing toward your long-term goals rather than looking at short-term market returns. Viewed from a historical lens, market sell-offs related to similar contagious disease outbreaks have been short-lived. As you can see in Table 1, of the five outbreaks we studied in the last 20 years, only one showed a negative return, and, notably, it was also the shortest duration.
SARS
Global alert from CDC issued 3/12/2003, final travel alert lifted by CDC 7/15/2003
MERS
MERS spreads to Europe 3/1/2014 New cases down significantly, signaling virus is contained 9/1/2014
Ebola
CDC teams deployed to Guinea 3/23/2014; WHO lifts “public health emergency” status 3/29/2016
MERS South Korea
WHO notified by South Korean officials of first case 5/20/2015; South Korea declares end of outbreak after no new cases for 23 days 7/27/2015
ZIKA
WHO declares Zika a “public health emergency” 2/1/2016; WHO declares end of “public health emergency” 11/18/2016
DATES
DURATION
MSCI ACWI
S&P 500
3/12/2003– 7/15/2003
4 months
26.6%
25.7%
3/1/2014– 9/1/2014
6 months
6.0%
8.8%
3/23/2014– 3/29/2016
24 months
1.1%
14.9%
5/20/2015– 7/27/2015
2 months
-2.5%
-4.8%
2/1/2016– 11/18/2016
9 months
14.6%
12.0%
TABLE 1: CUMULATIVE MARKET RETURN DURING ACTIVE OUTBREAKS
As the crisis continues to unfold, we’d urge you to avoid making any financial decisions based on headlines or day-to-day changes in the market. A well-thought-out financial plan is built to withstand these kinds of fluctuations, so focus on your long-term goals and stay healthy.
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HOW TO NOT PANIC: A BRIEF TUTORIAL
PEG WEBB Senior Vice President, Financial Advisor
Don’t panic! You’ve doubtless heard the refrain countless times over the past couple of weeks. It’s good advice, certainly. We have seen the worst of what we become when societies are consumed by panic. All the same, the advice can ring hollow. It is reasonable to worry. And one of the areas that consistently generates the most worry is money. It is reasonable to be worried about your money. How do you worry without panic? We ask this as our company fervently plans to fundamentally change our business operations—working from home, socially distancing, but also implementing plans to serve our clients remotely. For some period of time, our fundamental way of life, of which work is just a small part, will be altered. Of course, there is the standard advice we give to all of our clients: think long-term. Don’t let the headlines interfere with your goals by making you think short-term. Aim for diversification. If you have funds available, now might be a good time to buy. Consider a Roth conversion. Don’t get us wrong. That’s all great advice. But that, too, can ring hollow. When we initially started brainstorming article topics for 2020, we originally thought about election season. One of our favorite pieces of advice when it comes to elections is to ignore the doomsday provocateurs. The same person who predicted the 2007 stock market crash predicted the 2016 and 2005 crashes that didn’t happen. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. But, at the end of the day, their clock is still stopped. Things will get better. The markets will settle down and, if history is any guide, recover relatively quickly. That has been the case with other pandemics, including the Spanish flu. By all indications, a vaccine will be available—even if it takes a year or so to get it to the masses. While we may be confined to our homes for the foreseeable future, it’s important to keep our clocks moving. If a conversation with your advisor helps you look forward, by all means do that. If it just means getting outside for some fresh spring air, that works, too. Binge-watching television? Just don’t overdo it. But don’t fall for doom and gloom. At the end of the day, this is what investing is all about. We set aside a bit of our treasure now with the confidence that we have a future—and that future will, inevitably, get brighter. You believed it then. You proved it with your actions when you started investing. There’s no reason not to believe it now. So, don’t panic.
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COVID-19 STOCKS AND THE THREE BEARS: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON BEAR MARKETS
JIM CAHN Chief Investment Officer
As we are social distancing, a term that seems destined to be Merriam-Webster’s word of the year, it is easy to get swept up by gloomy economic headlines. It is a natural impulse, akin to rubbernecking on the highway. Just as rubbernecking grinds traffic to a halt, excessive worry causes us to miss the big picture. The speed of price movements across all financial markets, equity, fixed income, currencies, commodities, etc. can be unsettling, and the sell-off is likely to produce anxiety, as it conjures up visions of 2008 and even the Great Depression. But while the circumstances surrounding the current bear market are certainly unique, the nature of the downturn is not.
Putting it into perspective
Since 1948, the S&P 500 has entered into 13 bear markets that lasted an average of 13 months with average cumulative declines of 25.8%. In other words, if this turns out to be an average bear market, and we’re currently 20% down, then we’ve already taken most of the pain. Despite that, you might hear pundits suggest that the average cumulative drop in bear markets is over 36%, but that includes the Great Depression—nothing suggests that we are headed in that direction. More severe equity market declines are usually associated with failures within the financial system itself—think the bank runs in 1930 and the collapse of Wall Street giants in 2008. When financial institutions are strong, recessions and bear markets tend to be shallow. Luckily today, the financial system appears sound. Banks are well-capitalized, and liquidity—though stretched in some markets—continues to be generally plentiful.
Three kinds of bear markets
According to research by Goldman Sachs, there are three kinds of bear markets: cyclical, structural and eventdriven. It’s worth exploring each one as they tend to produce very different kinds of recessions.
CYCLICAL BEAR MARKET
STRUCTURAL BEAR MARKET
EVENT-DRIVEN BEAR MARKET
Typically a function of rising rates, impending recession and falling profits
Triggered by structural imbalances and financial bubbles
Triggered by a one-off shock that does not lead to a domestic recession
Average length: 27 months Average drawdown: -31%
Average length: 42 months Average drawdown: -57%
Average length: 9 months Average drawdown: -29%
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Cyclical bear markets are associated with the normal fluctuation of the business cycle. If the economy gets too “hot,” the fed will raise rates to keep prices in line, resulting in a depressed outlook for economic growth and an associated sell-off. These types of bear markets have average declines of -31% and last, on average, 21 months. Structural bear markets are caused by reversing a major bubble or imbalance in the economy. The 2008 financial crisis was such a bear market. Individuals and businesses were over-extended on debt as banks started lending to worse and worse candidates. These types of bear markets tend to see deeper sell-offs as they are correcting a fundamental flaw in the markets. On average, structural bear markets see declines of 57% and a 42-month recovery. The reason for the increased depth and time to recover is that even after consumers start to feel comfortable enough to spend more and businesses want to invest, banks are too impaired to lend, resulting in stagnation as the banks heal.
The coronavirus caused an event-driven bear market
Event-driven bear markets are caused by the market attempting to price in the impact of a specific event. The declines after the 9/11 attacks are one example. Event-driven bear market sell-offs tend to be shallower, with an average decline of 29%, and the rebound tends to be much faster, averaging nine months.
Clearly, the current downturn is event-driven.
The primary event has not so much been the coronavirus itself, but the containment measures around COVID-19, which are slowing economic activity.
This is, of course, a disturbing health crisis, and indeed, the number of confirmed cases continues to rise both at home and abroad. However, fear of the disease itself seems to be impacting perceptions of the markets and their capacity for recovery.
A cause for optimism
However, data from China, Korea and Taiwan indicates that social distancing, along with testing, will slow the spread of the virus. The administration believes COVID-19 will be largely behind us by late summer. From there, the outlook is a bit rosier. Government stimulus packages, deferred demand and ultra-low interest rates are likely to fuel a fast recovery in economic activity. Much has been said about the unprecedented decision by Saudi Arabia to increase oil production in the face of declining global demand brought about by the COVID-19 crisis. In previous years, this might have been a boon to economic growth, as lower fuel prices benefit the travel and manufacturing sectors. However, the U.S. is now the world’s largest oil producer. Over the last two decades, the U.S. has invested substantially in building out its energy infrastructure, which means that many banks and investors hold debtbacked energy infrastructure businesses. While Saudi Arabia can produce oil for as low as $3 a barrel, domestic “frackers” need oil in the mid-$40s to make money on new wells.
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But this, too, is an event. Price fixing, by definition, is outside of the typical market cycles, and it certainly doesn’t represent the correction of a flaw in the markets. Once the oil crisis subsides, as seems likely to happen this year, we have the infrastructure in place for a rebound.
Looking for opportunities
So, now that we have established a precedent for our current market conditions, we can look to identify opportunities. When markets sell off, there are often exceptional opportunities for future returns. Further, diversification seems to be working to stem some losses, as high-quality bonds have generally rallied as equity markets have sold off. This provides an opportunity to rebalance portfolios, selling bonds that have become relatively expensive and buying stocks that come at a discount compared to only weeks ago. Now is a good time to consider tax loss harvesting, using portfolio losses to offset gains in future years. Being able to use losses to save on taxes blunts the pain somewhat. With mortgage rates near all-time lows, it’s a great time to refinance. It is also a good time to consider a rollover from an employer plan to attain greater flexibility in your investments or a Roth conversion to reduce your tax burden. All of these moves only make sense if you can look past the headlines and see the market for what it is—an attempt to valuate a worldwide pandemic until such a time we have a vaccine or effective treatment. That day is coming, and it’s best to plan accordingly amidst the doom and gloom. Originally published on March 27, 2020
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CHOOSING THE RIGHT COURSE DURING MARKET VOLATILITY
ADAM PAULSON Senior Vice President, Financial Advisor Partner Programs
When it comes to managing your long-term investment strategy through market volatility, the omnipresent advice of “stay the course” is as comforting as a steel wool blanket. Clients hate hearing it, and honestly, most advisors are sick of saying it. Even if the old adage remains mostly true, if “stay the course” is where the conversation ends with your financial advisor, you should probably start looking for a new one.
Conversations you should be having with your financial advisor
A large downturn in the market causes lots of anxiety for investors, but it also creates a multitude of financial planning opportunities that warrant further discussion. Here are a few strategies your advisor should be talking about with you right now:
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ROTH CONVERSIONS Given the current tax reprieve that is due to sunset in 2025, Roth conversions were an attractive strategy before the downturn. Now, the opportunity has been amplified. If you convert an asset that has lost 20 - 30% of its value, you can save a significant amount in taxes once the asset recovers. ACCELERATE YOUR ACCOUNT CONTRIBUTIONS If you’re still working, you should consider accelerating your yearly contributions to several retirementsavings or investment accounts while the market is down. Start by taking an inventory of your accounts and familiarize yourself with their respective yearly limits and flexibility of investments. Look for defined contribution plans such as a 401(k) or 403(b), Individual or Roth IRAs, and Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) to identify the best opportunities for increased savings and investment options.
HSAs are a particularly beneficial, and misunderstood, investment vehicle. They have triple tax advantage: Adding money
from your paycheck reduces your tax liability, you don’t incur taxes while that money grows, and there are no taxes for withdrawing funds for qualified medical expenses. And, unlike a Flexible Spending Account (FSA), an HSA is not a “use it or lose it” benefit.
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TAX-LOSS HARVESTING The longest bull market in history—recently deceased thanks to the current market volatility—created a lot of wealth for many Americans. But it also created significant tax consequences for investors who did not have any tax losses to carry forward. These individuals found themselves faced with unwanted and, in some cases, unnecessary tax bills. Capturing tax losses today can help offset gains in the future and reduce tax liability for up to $3,000 in non-investment income. PORTFOLIO REBALANCING In turbulent times, your advisor should be proactively rebalancing your portfolio by selling off assets that went up to buy assets that went down. This ensures that your target asset allocation is maintained over the long run. When equity or bond markets have significant swings, it can throw your allocation out of whack. And if you don’t have a rebalancing plan in place, it can erode the value of your account over time.
So, are you staying on the right course?
If you and your financial advisor have been having conversations about most or all of the strategies in this article, then the answer is likely “yes.” But if you’re not talking about these topics with your advisor, or at all, then it’s time to start. Managing your wealth once it reaches a certain level is complex, time consuming, and carries a significant amount of personal risk. By employing Wealth Enhancement Group to take over these responsibilities, you’re relieving yourself of the time commitment and liability involved. We provide world-class investment management and planning acumen and are committed to offering a high-touch relationship with our clients.
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PROTECTING YOURSELF FROM CYBERATTACKS AMID COVID-19 UNCERTAINTY
BRIAN VNAK Vice President, Advisory Services
As the world transitions to a lifestyle of social distancing, moving the workforce and communications increasingly remote and digital, it’s more important than ever to be cyber vigilant. Our global community’s mass increase in digital solutions creates an environment that is ripe for bad people to do bad things. Even the U.S. Health and Human Services Department was the target of a cyberattack on its computer system. The attack is being described as part of a campaign of disruption and disinformation aimed at undermining the response to the coronavirus pandemic. As individuals, we should be prepared for heightened activity for phishing scams that prey on the uncertainty around an evolving COVID-19 environment.
Be on the lookout for COVID-19 phishing scams
Fraudsters attempt to disguise themselves as a trustworthy source such as a bank or government entity. Then, in an email, they request sensitive information from you like usernames, passwords and credit card/financial details. For example, they might offer COVID-19-related grants or stimulus payments in exchange for personal financial information or an advance fee, tax or charge of some kind (including the purchase of gift cards). Often, they will threaten to arrest you within a short period of time unless payment is made. Do not respond or provide personal information or payment to these individuals. Their actions are crimes and should be reported. Generally speaking, businesses and government agencies do not reach out to you asking for sensitive information, so if you receive a call or email claiming to be from the Treasury Department, IRS or other government entity, you should be on high alert.
Known COVID-19 scams
Scammers follow the headlines, and reports have already circulated of various attempts to fraud Americans, including fake coronavirus case maps that can spy on you through your camera and microphone. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has identified a few additional types of scams that have been reported, including: Undelivered Goods: Online sellers claim they have in-demand items like cleaning products, household products and health and medical supplies, but they never ship the product. Fake Charities: Scammers use major health events to set up donation sites for fake victims or use names that sound a lot like real charities.
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Fake Emails, Texts and Phishing: They try to get you to share your personal information to steal your money, identity or both. They also try to get you to click on a link that installs ransomware or other programs to lock you out of your data and gain access to your computer or network. Robocalls: Illegal robocalls pitch everything from scam coronavirus treatments to work-at-home schemes. Misinformation and rumors: Scammers (and sometimes well-meaning people) share information that hasn’t been verified and may be entirely false.
How to avoid COVID-19 scams
The FTC has provided some tips to help protect yourself and keep the scammers at bay: • Don’t click on links from sources you don’t know, since they could download malware onto your device. • Watch for emails claiming to be from government entities or experts saying they have information about the virus. For the most up-to-date information about the coronavirus, visit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization. • Ignore online offers for vaccinations or products to treat or cure COVID-19. • Do your research to make sure you are buying products from a reputable source. Search online for the person or company’s name, phone number and email address, plus words like “review,” “complaint” or “scam.” • Research where you are donating money, whether through charities or crowdfunding sites. If someone wants donations in cash, by gift card or by wiring money, don’t do it. We’re living during a stressful, uncertain time. As cyberattacks grow in both number and sophistication, it’s possible that you or someone close to you could find yourself to be a victim. If that happens, all is not lost. The important thing is to act promptly in reporting to the correct authorities. If you do come across a COVID-19 scam, there are a few methods available to report them to authorities, including directly to the FBI at www.ic3.gov so that the scammers can be tracked and stopped. If they claim to be from the Treasury Department, report it to OIGCounsel@oig.treas.gov, or if they claim to be from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), report it to phishing@irs.gov. Be sure to include as many details as possible, such as: • The exact date and time that you received the calls or emails • The phone number of the caller • The geographic location and time zone where you received the call or email • A description of the communication Not sure what you came across is a scam? Reach out to your financial advisor with a screenshot or details about the suspicious communication, and they can advise you on the appropriate course of action.
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HOW MUCH LIFE INSURANCE IS RIGHT FOR YOU?
JENNIE BOLAND Senior Vice President, Financial Advisor
Life happens. These unprecedented times really drive the point that no one can predict the future, so it’s best to prepare for anything. The reality is, you won’t always be there for your loved ones, but you can always take care of them. One of the best ways to do that financially is with life insurance.
Do you have enough life insurance?
Undoubtedly, life insurance is an uncomfortable topic, but it’s an important conversation to have for the financial well-being of your loved ones. Although life insurance can’t change what happened to someone you care about, it can be life-changing for those who survive. Think about it—one of the most stressful events you can experience is the loss of a loved one, and life insurance can ease the financial stress associated with that loss when they need it most. So, how much life insurance do you need? Unfortunately, there’s no easy answer. The amount of coverage you “should” purchase depends on what you want the life insurance to accomplish. The best way to figure that out is with an analysis of your family and personal financial situation, along with your financial goals and objectives. Depending on your family’s financial needs, your loved ones can use life insurance funds for a variety of circumstances such as: • Replacing a portion or all of your income • Covering the mortgage to keep your family in their home • Paying for final expenses, including medical costs • Paying off debt • Establishing a college education fund • Covering financial emergencies Often, insurance offered through your employer is only equal to one years’ salary, give or take. You may have the option to purchase additional coverage through your employer, but keep in mind that often isn’t portable if you transition jobs to a new employer. Whether through your employer or individually, you may need to purchase additional coverage, depending on your family’s financial goals and what you’d like your life insurance to cover.
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The chart below gives a good frame of reference for what different amounts of life insurance could mean for your family over the years. If you purchased this amount of life insurance
$50k
$100k
$250k
$500k
$1M
$1.5M
$2.5M
And your family spent $2,500 for last expenses
$25,000
$75,000
$225,000
$475,000
$975,000
$1,475,000
$2,475,000
Your family will have this monthly income for 10 years, or...
$244
$733
$2,198
$4,640
$9,525
$14,410
$24,179
This monthly income for 20 years, or...
$140
$420
$1,260
$2,661
$5,461
$8,262
$13,863
This monthly income for 30 years
$106
$319
$957
$2,020
$4,145
$6,271
$10,523
For illustrative purposes only. Assumes 3% rate of return per annum on the Life Insurance Proceeds. All income amounts are shown pre-tax.
When should you purchase life insurance?
Insurers will primarily look at your age and health when determining your eligibility and monthly premium pricing for your life insurance policy. The younger and healthier you are, the longer you are likely to pay premiums, which means the insurer is taking on less risk to insure you. As such, there’s plenty of conventional wisdom floating around that suggests investing in life insurance as soon as possible to lock in lower premiums, even as early as when you’re in your 20s or 30s. That said, affordable, high-quality coverage is available at any age. But no matter your age, if you have children or other financial dependents, there’s a good chance your family could benefit from the protection of a life insurance policy. Protecting your loved ones from the unexpected is an important part of a strong financial plan. The important thing is to choose the right life insurance for your budget and your needs. Over the years, your needs, your family situation and your life goals will evolve. When that happens, it’s also time for you to reevaluate the right type of insurance for you to ensure you are covered properly. Your financial advisor is there to provide some guidance in this process, based on your reality and your goals. This article contains only general descriptions and is not a solicitation to sell any insurance product or security, nor is it intended as any financial or tax advice. For information about specific insurance needs or situations, please contact your insurance agent. State insurance laws and insurance underwriting rules may affect available coverage and costs. Guarantees are based on the claims paying ability of the issuing company.
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Advisory services offered through Wealth Enhancement Advisory Services, LLC (WEAS), a registered investment advisor. Certain, but not all, investment advisor representatives (IARs) of WEAS are also registered representatives of and offer securities through LPL Financial, member FINRA/SIPC. Wealth Enhancement Group and WEAS are separate entities from LPL. Wealth Enhancement Group is a registered trademark of Wealth Enhancement Group, LLC. 1-981954
4/2020
