Specialist Writer of the Year

T H E N O M I N A T I O N S SPECIALIST WRITER

of the Year

MATT BISOGNO

KEVIN BLAKE PAUL KEALY

SIMON ROWLANDS

The Specialist Writer award is the second of two new categories we have introduced this year. Few sports lend themselves better to such forensic analysis as horseracing, and those who specialise in this area have been overlooked for too long when it comes to these awards. The response from the membership since the new award was announced has been most gratifying, and the entries received from some of the best brains in the racing media reflected a broad range of expertise with ground-breaking analysis of new and exciting fields featuring alongside more traditional areas of investigation in the worlds of betting, bloodstock, international racing and tipping. Narrowing the final field to just four proved invidious.

In addition to the final quartet, about whom you will learn more overleaf, the HWPA would like to commend the excellent work submitted by Ben Hutton, Keith Melrose, Andrew Mount, Simon Nott, Tom Peacock, Tom Richmond and James Thomas, plus former finalists in other categories Emma Berry, Nick Godfrey and Lissa Oliver, and multiple former Clive Graham Trophy winner Chris McGrath. They will have further opportunities, for this award is here to stay.

THE NOMINATIONS

MATT

BISOGNO

What’s your background in racing/

racing journalism? No formal background. I love to write and I love racing, so I set up a little blog 13 years ago. Things progressed from there: the internet has democratised journalism as it has most things Where do we go to find your current output? Though I’ve written for the Irish Field, ATR and a handful of others, almost everything I’ve scribbled can be found on geegeez.co.uk

Suggest one or two aspects of form study and racing analysis

that you think most of us underplay? An invitation to preach eggsucking to granny is this! With apologies in advance, then, I’d suggest projecting how a race is likely to be run is fundamental. Who wants to be on the best horse in the race at a short price if he probably doesn’t get his setup? Marking up rarity - form on firm or heavy going when the race is on similar, marathon, nine-furlong race form etc - is another frequently underplayed opportunity

What 2019 winner are you particularly pleased to have tipped or

backed through such an angle? Too fearful of the aftertime police to answer this!

What new data would you most like to see readily accessible

to punters? I’m a firm believer in ‘more data’, so I’m in favour of sectionals, horses’ weights, details on stride and cadence and so on, but presentation and education is everything. Data is a fundamental engagement tool in most other mainstream sports, and yet racing still seems to shy away from it. I’d primarily like to see a greater effort to make existing data more consumable. We should be aiming to step beyond legacy formbook hieroglyphics towards a more visual world

What change to racing’s rules or presentation would you most like

to see in 2020? I’d love to see graphic pace maps in TV broadcasts, and potentially form profiles as well. These kinds of on-screen visuals empower viewers to bet in a way that the usual ‘racing chat’ cannot

KEVIN BLAKE

What’s your background in racing/

racing journalism? I don’t have any background in racing. I started to take an interest in my early teens when my father, who knew nothing about horses, bought a broodmare on a whim for £500 off a man in a pub! That interest soon grew into an obsession and after being very lucky to get a chance with the Irish Field when I was 19, I was off and running. Where do we go to find your current output? I write weekly columns for AtTheRaces.com and Betfair. I also appear as a pundit on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing and write bloodstock analysis pieces for the Thoroughbred Daily News.

Suggest one or two aspects of form study and racing analysis that

you think most of us underplay? I probably put a lot more emphasis on the first half of the race than most. How well the horses started, how much work they had to do to establish a position, how well they settled etc... All of those things have a significant bearing on results, but don’t seem to get emphasised as much as what happens in the second half of races.

What 2019 winner are you particularly pleased to have tipped or

backed through such an angle? Aftertiming is a scourge on our sport and I refuse to contribute to that particular mire!

What new data would you most like to see readily accessible to

punters? The case for sectionals/stride data has been well made at this stage and I am fully on board with it. I would also be very much in favour of recording/publishing the height and weight of every horse that runs. That is readily achievable, affordable, and would have great benefits from the most basic level right up to more advanced analysis.

What change to racing’s rules or presentation would you most like

to see in 2020? The interference rules in Britain are far too lenient. They need to be tightened up significantly before there is a tragic accident brought about by reckless riding.

Paul Kealy

Theatre Guide appeals with plenty in his favour

THERE are plenty of old favourites in the William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans’ Handicap Chase at Newbury on Saturday, but the one who stands out given likely conditions is Theatre Guide, who has great form at the track and loves decent ground.

Theatre Guide was third in the Hennessy on good ground in 2013 and second two years later when the going was soft, although given the distances beaten his better run was the first.

Indeed, the vast majority of his best form has been when encountering a decent surface. That includes a ten-length win off 139 in what used to be the Racing Post Chase in February 2016, a win at Cheltenham off 149 ten months later and third places, again in the old Racing Post Chase and the bet365 Gold Cup, off marks of 153 and 152.

He is obviously not the force of old, but last month’s second to Houblon Des Obeaux in the final of this series at Sandown (good to soft) was a step back in the right direction and, given his Newbury form and the weather forecast, he really should be stepping up on that.

It helps that he is going to be 7lb better off with Houblon Des Obeaux and I think he’ll go close even though he is conceding a year or two to most of his rivals.

Doing Fine is also of interest for this race as well as the Grimthorpe at Doncaster as he is another who wants decent ground and is now 6lb lo than when fourth in last season’s Scottish Grand National.

He hasn’t exactly been running brilliantly, though, Theatre Guide has alway much classier.

It’

unfortunateto be around at the same timeas her. Magical gives her truerunning every time and neverletsyoudown.Shehasbumpedinto Enable a few times now,but you should never run awaya afrom one horse,soshe’shavia nganothergo.” Regarding tactics on Sunday, p thingsimple from stall eight, oneinsideEnable.“My filly is uncomplic f ated, and you can put her anywherein a race really. She jumps verywell from the gates which is abonus too. I’ll talk to Dad overthenextfnex ew daf f ys anda da dstudytherace and we’ll take it fromthere,”O’Briensaid.Ryan Moore will be on Ja y u down’ in the Arc and O’Brien thinksthe improving three-year-olddeservesa crackatEnable.“I don’t ride Japan much athome, but he has not donemuch wrong all year and Ithink he has more than earneda chance to run againstEnable,”hesaid.It is a big weekend forO’Brien, who l

THE STORYOFTWO OLDFOESEnable 1 v 0 Magical Enable 2 v 0 Magical Kingdom of Bahrain SunChariot Stakes at Newmarketon Saturday.“I don’t have a great recordon her for some reason. Wayneaseems to be the one who winson her, br ut he’s away, and it’sgreattohavethechance to rideher again. She’s a vefill

From front page From frontpageat Sandown in July – andO’Brien believes she is unluckytobearoundatthesame timeasthe odds-on Arc favourite, whoischasinghistoryonSunday.O’Brien said: “Enable is anincredible filly, extremelytalented, and Magical isprobablya littlebitunfor

Raise a glasg s to Lincoln thirt d Be ing E STORYOFTWO OLDFOES1 v 01 v Magical SORRY tRY o disappoint listeners to the Racing Post Saturdaya Podcast, but the horse myself and Paddy Power’s Frank Hickey were all over forf the Mansionbet Newbury on en appear ntries, so ‘Magicalalways runs well– shenever lets you doO’Brien expects to keep thingssimple from stall ei h

Racing P gPostWeekender10.04.19 – 14.04.19 Paul I’m neverv a great one for favoa urites, but I think the price is just about big enough forf Beringerg , who ran a mighty race from way oay ff the pace in what was almost certainly aly very good Lincoln. Winner Auxerre domin Kealy well be a Group 1 performer of the futf ure and Beringer, wr, ho suffef red frof m some early scrimmaging, was nearly last at halfwaf y bay eforf e weavia ng his waya through. He wa get challenge on the far side. He spent all of last season running overv 1m2f but I’m fairf ly sure a big-fieldf mile handicap will come his way tay his term and this might well be it. I can’t say eay arly-season Classic trials havea everv interested me oint of view er this term,but he’s going to havev to concede a 3lb penalty tty o last year’s winner, wr, ho has wonw first time out every season he has raced – also ran right up to his best after a break in a German Group1 in September – and maya still havea more to come now how e has been gelded. and the bookmakers probably havea the marketr right in just favoa uring Defoef overv Young Rascal in the Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes, otherwise known as the John Porter. I’m full of hope YoungRascal will develv opinto a top performer Takingrisks(right) in winning action at Carlisle lastmonth er at Newbury ,

Back Benedeto to bounce ul Kealyback for red-hot Nicholls g o

g \ column The Irish Field, Saturday September 21 2019

TimeWillTell SimonRowlands umbersback show-stealer PinatuboPinatubo

something special to a good winner of the oldest classic, the winner rish Champion Stakes, e winners of numerous high profile Group races in st week, but the two-yearmanaged to do just that. He is not just any old two-year-old, e can surely all agree. He is ten, he is getting better with each un, and his win in the Group 1 Goffs incent O’Brien National Stakes by nine lengths from two Group 2 winners y sensational. hen it comes to quantifying ormance (or any perforor that matter), we need to deal acts not emotions and sentiment. t do the facts say about Pinatubo’s ast: le romp? ell, his overall time was fast, very it was fully 2.46s (about 15 lengths) er than Love managed in the preglare Stud Stakes and was behind those two Group 2 winners (Armory and Arizona) left trailing in Pinatubo’s wake was Monoski, who had last been seen finishing fourth in a nursery at York off a BHA mark of 93. Whatever you rate Pinatubo, Monoski was 1.85s – about 35lbs – behind him on final times (and on sectionals, for that matter). That does somewhat limit any assessment, unless you think that Monoski improved, which is possible. Weighing up all of the above, and a bit more besides, I came down on a 129 timefigure for Pinatubo, edged up to 130 on account of those slick late sectionals and a finishing speed of 104.1% of his average race speed. That figure is unprecedented in recent years, though I had Frankel on 135 after his Royal Lodge win, long before I was writing on these pages. You have to go back to the last century, and to the likes of Celtic Swing, Arazi and Xaar, for other examples of something similar. In summary, Pinatubo does indeed Logician not as good as some suggest IT took notably fast conditions to allow Logician to complete a course record in winning the St Leger at Doncaster last Saturday, but it also took a very good effort from him as well to break Masked Marvel’s 2011 benchmark by 0.17s, or roughly a length. Logician had more than that margin to spare over, in order, Sir Ron Priestley, Nayef Road and Sir agonet, having soon relaxed into a typical middleThe St Leger at Doncaster contrasted markedly with the Irish St Leger at the Curragh the following day in terms of how it was run. The gallop in the latter was very stop-start, resulting in a poor overall time but some fast late sectionals (everything in the field had a finishing speed of 109.5% of their race speed or higher). Search For A Song was in the lead turning in, if perhaps not entirely by design, and had more than enough in reserve to hold on. gure of Stradivarius at his best in Doncaste

LOGICIAN and Frankie Dettori were the stars of the show at the William Hill St Leger Festival but there were plenty of other notable performances. Stradivarius was one of eight group winners across the four days, and he took the Doncaster Cup on Friday readily to extend his unbeaten run to 10. He had less to beat than usual, with Dee Ex Bee pulled out because of the firm going, and a slow pace meant he did not assert his superiority as much as he might have. Nonetheless, sectionals – these provided electronically and in great detail by Total Performance Data – show he ran the last three furlongs in 34.65s, which gives him a big upgrade to his overall timefigure to 125. That is now Stradivarius’ prevailing rating after Il Paradiso did not do a lot for the Lonsdale Cup form when fifth in the St Leger the day after. Enbihaar (114, Group 2 Park Hill Stakes), Breathtaking Look (108, Group 3 Sceptre Stakes) and Sir Dancealot (119, Group 2 Park Stakes) were workmanlike winners of what were, to greater or lesser degrees, well-run races, with those figures including little/no secPinatubo and William Buick come home in splendid isolation in the National Stakes \ Healy Racing Pinatubo and and William Buick come am Buick come home in splendid home in id isolation in the tion the National Stakes National Stakes \ Healy RacingHealy Racin tional boosts. The Aidan O’Brien-trained Delphinia (111) ran the first-named to a short-head, seemingly suited by the longer trip, while it might have been close had Preening (106) and Mot Juste (107) got going sooner against front-running Breathtaking Look, and Sir Dancealot was helped by an overly strong pace set by Shine So Bright (who remains on 120). The Portland Handicap was not a group race, but it took a group-standard performance from Oxted to win it as a three-year-old under 9st 7lb from the well-handicapped 2018 winner A Momentofmadness. Sectionals show this to have been a strongly-run affair, with the winner’s finishing speed as low as 97.5%, and he gets a smart 116 figure on the back of it. With Pinatubo elsewhere, Saturday’s Group 2 Champagne Stakes proved to be second-division by comparison, with Godolphin represented by Royal Crusade instead. That one came up a neck short of Threat, who conceded him 3lbs and ran a 111 figure to his 108, with both upgraded a couple of pounds on the back of quite quick late splits. Analysis early in the week at Doncaster was complicated by a strong and gusting wind, which seemed to suppress some times more than others. The aptlynamed Powerful Breeze (105) came from off the pace to win the Group 2 May Hill Stakes from Boomer (100) and the strongfinishing Alpen Rose (103), with the freegoing favourite Cloak Of Spirits (104 on her debut at Ascot) weakening late on. The Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes on Friday proved to be reasonably

Stradivarius was at his best in the Doncaster Cup \ Healy Racing straightforward for A’Ali with his main rival Alligator Alley disappointing. T Simon Crisford-trained colt ear sectional figure (109 at his best) with f finishing runner-up Dream Shot on 108 in what was a notably tactical race f sprint. The Listed Flying Scotsman Stak also on Friday, saw Molatham (103) account for a similarly promising type in Wichita (101), both ducking under 23.5s for the final two furlongs in a slightl messy affair. Fourth-placed V at his best) underperformed a he may stride like a god b to run like the opposite.

Sottsass the d pick e fi but Arc eworks tr

PAUL KEALY

What’s your background in racing/

racing journalism? My dad used to watch racing on a Saturday, but other than that, none. I left school with no qualifications and when I joined the Racing Post as a copytaker in 1987 I could barely write a sentence, but I had some great mentors

Where do we go to find your

current output? In the Weekender every Wednesday and in the Racing Post on Thursday, Friday and Saturday

Suggest one or two aspects of form study and racing analysis that

you think most of us underplay? I tend to focus more on what is overplayed, such as last-time-out form. Forgive a horse a bad run assuming you can find a logical reason - and you can get some real value. Other than that, form figures, especially winning runs, can be hugely overplayed by the general punter. I prefer to look at what has actually been achieved

What 2019 winner are you particularly pleased to have tipped or

backed through such an angle? San Benedeto was stone last before winning the Greatwood Gold Cup but he had become seriously well treated and had been given a short break. I thought he was huge at 25-1 ante-post for a race Paul Nicholls had farmed. I laid Laurina for a place in the Champion Hurdle as I’m always be wary of a ‘big’ performance in an uncompetitive race and she’d done nothing in proper company

What new data would you most like to see readily accessible to punters?

Sectionals are not something I have ever paid much attention to, but I know I should, and there’s enough clamour for them to suggest they should be rolled out across the board. Simon Rowlands’ pieces on stride length and cadence have been fascinating

What change to racing’s rules or presentation would you most like

to see in 2020? I’m not an advocate of banning the whip, but if we have rules it is incumbent upon the jockeys to obey them and for the authorities to police them. Disqualification of winning horses would alienate punters, but we can’t continue with so many bad headlines and if the jockeys don’t get their house in order, someone outside racing will do it for them - and they won’t like the results

SIMON

ROWLANDS

What’s your background in racing/

racing journalism? Timeform, including as a handicapper, race-reader and editor; punting; The Sportsman (Racing Editor); Timeform again; and currently a freelancer

Where do we go to find your

current output? Sectional Spotlights and Big-Race/Tipping Previews on At The Races, where I am also responsible for the sectional pars and methodology which drives the colour-coded Sectional Results; weekly time-based column ‘Time Will Tell’ at The Irish Field; datadriven race previews, and occasional pieces on fundamental form and betting analysis, for Timeform; ratings reviews at International Thoroughbred; data-driven bloodstock analysis at The Stallion Guide; bespoke sectional/striding analysis for owners, bloodstock agents, jockeys, trainers, punters and others

Suggest one or two aspects of form study and racing analysis that

you think most of us underplay? Ratings, both form-based and timebased, and pace analysis as measured through sectionals. But the goal should always be to assess probabilities/odds as well as you can at the end of whatever approach you use

What 2019 winner are you particularly pleased to have tipped or backed

through such an angle? Sangarius at Royal Ascot through striding, and Al Boum Photo in the Cheltenham Gold Cup through times/sectionals

What new data would you most like to see readily accessible

to punters? Sectionals and striding are becoming more and more available thanks to the likes of Total Performance Data, and it is possible to calculate your own of both. I would like to see a pilot project into the race-day weighing of horses. Yardage travelled and ‘lane’ position on bends could well become more influential before long

What change to racing’s rules or presentation would you most like

to see in 2020? Quantitative assessment is something horseracing is capable of being very good at, and it has the potential to drive engagement and understanding if presented appropriately. Immediate semi-automated post-race ratings’ assessments and ‘finishing speed’ percentages would tell you so much about what has just happened in a race and could be carried forward into future races