Big Race Trends: The Coolmore Nunthorpe

PREVIOUS WINNERS - LAST TEN RUNNINGS Year Winner Trainer Jockey

2019 Battaash Charles Hills Jim Crowley 2018 Alpha Delphini Bryan Smart Graham Lee 2017 Marsha Sir Mark Prescott Bt Luke Morris 2016 Mecca’s Angel Michael Dods Paul Mulrennan 2015 Mecca’s Angel Michael Dods Paul Mulrennan 2014 Sole Power Edward Lynam Richard Hughes 2013 Jwala Robert Cowell Steve Drowne 2012 Ortensia Paul Messara William Buick 2011 Margot Did Michael Bell Hayley Turner 2010 Sole Power Edward Lynam Wayne Lordan

SP

7/4 40/1 8/1 9/2 15/2 11/4F 40/1 7/2JF 20/1 100/1

Runners Time

11 ran 55.90s 15 ran 57.18s 11 ran 57.97s 19 ran 56.24s 19 ran 57.24s 13 ran 57.92s 17 ran 57.34s 19 ran 57.62s 15 ran 58.66s 12 ran 57.14s

Going

G/F G/F G G G/S G G/S G G/S G/F

AGE

Since 1958, there have only been seven winners of the Nunthorpe aged six or above suggesting that we should view their chances with a degree of scepticism, however it is worth noting that all seven of those happened in the last fifteen years, including the 2018 winner Alpha Delphini, so perhaps it’s a trend on the move. Unlike, most races run on the flat, two-year-olds are allowed to mix it with their older rivals in the Nunthorpe. They have won the race twice since 1992 courtesy of Lyric Fantasy and Kingsgate Native in 2007 but don't have a representative this year.

KEY RACES

The best guide is the Royal Ascot’s King’s Stand Stakes which has supplied ten of the last seventeen winners of the Nunthorpe. Run over 5f, the race was upgraded to a Group 1 in 2008, and since then Border lescott, Ortensia and Sole Power have all taken it in en route to the Knavesmire. It falls to the King's Stand winner, Battaash to carry that flag today in his search to repeat last year's success.

RATING

When it comes to official ratings, it is best to set the benchmark at 110 as only a handful of winners in recent years have fallen below that mark. Borderlescott (2008 and 2009), Sole Power (2010), Jwala (2013) and Alpha Delphini (2018) all managed to defy that trend, whilst Kingsgate Native did not have a rating when he triumphed in 2007.

RECENT FORM

Nine of the last ten winners achieved a top four finish on their most recent start, with Sole Power, Ortensia, Mecca’a Angel and Battaash the only four to get their head in front on their latest run. It’s also worth noting that all of the last ten winners had already won at least once earlier in the season, so this isn’t a race in which you want to be relying on a horse bouncing back to form.

TRAINERS

Charles Hills and Michael Dods are the only three trainers with a runner this year to have tasted success on more than one occasion. Battaash is the star for Hills, while Dods relies on the filly Que Amoro.

BETTING

The Nunthorpe has been no stranger to big priced winners in recent seasons, with Sole Power (2010), Margot Did (2011), Jwala (2013) and the 2018 winner, Alpha Delphini all obliging at odds of 20/1 or bigger. Historically however, the race has shown favour towards those at the head of the market with eleven of the last seventeen winners coming from within the top four in the market.

KEY TRENDS

Side with those who ran in the King’s Stand Finished in the first four last time Won at least once this season

CONCLUSION

Battaash is one of the best sprinters on planet Earth, with his track-record-breaking victory last year, as well as his King's Stand and King George Qatar Stakes victories this season illustrating his brilliance. He's clearly going to be very difficult to beat, but the softening of the ground and the progressive form of ART POWER gives the Yorkshire-trained three-year-old a serious chance of causing the upset in receipt of 2lb. The Tim Easterby-trained colt is unbeaten this season, galloping away with a Royal Ascot handicap before demolishing Millisle in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes at Naas. This is a big step up, but he looks to have the ability. Fellow three-year-old A'Ali is another with claims after taking the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes in good style on his last run.