International Collaboration for Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Professor Elisabeth Holland Professor of Climate Change and Director Pacific Centre for the Environment and Sustainable Development
Sarah Hemstock, Aliti Koroi, Carol Emaurois, Prerna Chand, Viliamu Iese, Helene Jacot Des Combes, Joeli Veitayaki, Naushad Yakub, Sarika Chand, Jone Tuiipelehaki, Birtha Togahai, Pelenise Alofa, Jason Alonk, William Arudovo, Rose Godana, Tevita Faka’osi, Abe Aremwa, Tessa Koppert, Tamara Greenstone, Teuleala Manuella, Tapulolou Tuailemafua Sumeet Naidu, Leone Limalevu, Morgan Wairiu, Antoine N'Yeurt, Christopher Ward, Ruci Kurucake, Shivani Pillay, Nasoni Roko, Nirupa Ram-Tokuma, Priya Sharma, Tupe Samani, Sairusi Bosenaqali, Awnesh Singh, Ronil Prasad, Sainimere Veitata, Sachin Nand, Ame Tuisavusavu, Ashmita Devi, Luke Paeniu, John Walenenea, Moses Asitarau, Betty Sigrah
IPCC AR5 Physical Science Basis approved 27 September, 2013 Stockholm, Sweden
• Warming in the climate system is unequivocal and since 1950 many changes
have been observed throughout the climate system that are unprecedented over decades to millennia.
• Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850
)
Sea Level Rise Technical Summary
IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report
Total Sea level rise to date globally since 1850:
20 cm
Total Sea Level rise to come by 2100: 50-120 cm
by 2300: as much as 300 cm
(3m) if atmospheric carbon
dioxide exceeds 500 ppm, now 400 ppm
Since Rio/UNFCCC in 1992 Global sea level has risen:
5.5 cm
IPCC AR5 WG 1, The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers , ilation of paleo sea level data (purple), tide gauge data (blue, red and green), altimeter data http://www.climatechange2013.org estimates and likely ranges for projections of global-mean sea level rise from the combination
Climate Adaptation in Pacific Small Island States
IPCC AR5 WG2, released 31 March, 2014, http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/
Tuvalu
Majuro,
Republic of the Marshall Islands
Drought Ailuk Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands
CO2 emissions and Policy Negotiations Global fossil and cement emissions: 9.5±0.5PgC in 2011, 54% over 1990 Projection for 2012: 9.7±0.5PgC, 58% over 1990
Copenhagen Accords
Kyoto Protocol UNFCCC
Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range) Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Le Quéré et al. 2012; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012
What does the Future hold?
Warming to date 0.85 °C
4.0-6.1 °C
2.6-3.7 °C 2.0-3.0 °C 1.3-1.9 °C
IPCC AR5, Technical Summary , http://www.climatechange2013.org
Building Community Resilience
The 7 C’s • • • • • • •
Collaboration Community Conduct Culture Conservation Commitment Confidence
ECCA Communities & Activities 100% = Completion Rate 7 steps: 1. PAC Formation 2. Rapid Assessment 3. Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) Assessment 4. Selection of Pilot Sites 5. Adaptation Plan 6. Implementation 7. M&E Plan
Daku, Tailevu 100% Buretu, Tailevu 100% Bavu, Nadroga 100% Votua, Nadroga 100% Barotu, Ra 100% Navala, Ba 100% Yasawa, Ba 100% Ono, Kadavu 100% Yadua, Bua 100% Cakaudrove, Vanua Levu 100%
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Macuata, Vanua Levu 100% Navukailagi, Gau 100%
EU GCCA Communities & Activities 100% = Completion Rate
Cooks 86% = 6/7
7 steps: 1. NPAC Formation 2. Rapid Assessment 3. Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) Assessment 4. Selection of Pilot Sites 5. Adaptation Plan 6. Implementation 7. M&E Plan
Fiji 100% = 6/7 FSM 43% = 3/7 Kiribati 86% = 6/7 Marshall 71% = 5/7 Niue 86% = 6/7 Palau 57% = 4/7 Nauru 86% = 6/7 Samoa 86% = 6/7 Solomon 100% Timor Leste 86% = 6/7 Tuvalu 86% = 6/7 Tonga 86% = 6/7
E U R O P E A N U N IO N
Vanuatu 86% = 6/7 PNG 57% = 4/7
Coastal Community Adaptation Project C-CAP Goal and Activities Key Assessment Tools: Risk Assessment with Google Mapping (RA) ; Infrastructure Prioritization Index Assessment (IPI); Disaster Risk Reduction and Response (DRR) process and plan; and Land and Resource Use Planning (LUP). Project Status To-date 71 communities in 9 Countries have completed the RA and IPI 3 communities have completed their DRR 5 communities have their adaption infrastructure being implemented (4 in Samoa and 1 in PNG)
Fiji Kiribati Nauru Samoa Solomon Tuvalu Tonga Vanuatu PNG
Sustainable Sea Transport Research Programme PIDF 2013 outcomes “top 10’ list:
“Prioritise alternatives to existing petroleum driven land and sea transportation that significantly reduce fuel imports. Sustainable sea transport approaches are to be promoted and adopted as an alternative to provide effective services for remote island communities.”
USP action: • • • • • •
Hosted Sustainable Sea Transport Talanoa 2012 Established research programme Regional Research & Education Strategy Oceania Centre for Sustainable Transport International research partnerships Hosting SSTT 2014: 14-18 July
Imported Regional Fuel Use by Sector Other
Electricity
Transport
Transport Fuel Use by Sector (Fiji) Land
Sea Air
Support PICs transtion to low carbon sea transport futures as a more affordable and appropriate option for remote/island communities in the Pacific
Research Programme: • • • •
train current and future PIC capacity macro and micro economic analyses quadruple bottom-line reporting framework carbon management policy for transport emmisions
Regional Research & Education Strategy • • •
Long term regional strategy Prepare country plans for transition to low carbon Provide strong country support - quality research & practical trials
Oceania Centre for Sustainable Transport • •
Portal for knowledge, research, networking, exchange Multi-partner – IUCN, WWF, PIDF - from village to global
InternationalResearch partnerships:
Guest Speakers include: • Honourable Faipule Foua Toloa, Minister of Energy & Transport, Tokelau • Professor Kobayashi, Keio University, Japan • Dr Matthew Anderson, Portsmouth Business School, UK • Professor Captain Michael Vahs, Marine Department, Hamburg • Prof Ralph Simms, Massey University, co-author IPPC Transport • Meredith Wilensky, Centre for Climate Change Law, Columbia Law School • Jeff Watts, Australia Maritime College, online learning • Dr Tristan Smith, UCL Energy Institute, UK
International Cooperation in Renewable Energy • KOICA/USP Project: Capacity building, Resource Assessment, 45 kW GCPV system • France/USP Projects: Banish the kerosene lamp. Solar EV charging system, Solar refrigeration • US/USP : Standalone PV systems • ROC/USP : Solar water pumping • EU/USP : Capacity building Project DIREKT, LEAP • USAID/ASU/USP: Voctec programme – Standalone PV systems training • Others: IRENA, REN21
Recommendations • INCREASE INVESTMENT in climate change adaptation and mitigation by 10 FOLD • INVEST IN THE FUTURE, build human capacity for leadership and research, retain our talent in the region • INSPIRE INNOVATION with transformative collaborative tools, and knowledge networks... PECX, Pacific Environment and Climate Exchange, Track 3
Thank You • • • • • • •
Fa'afetai Malo Tank iu Vinaka vaka levu Sulang Ko rab’s Obrigado/a
• • • • • • •
Tank yiu tumas Tenkyu tru Fakafetai Fakaaue lahi Kommol tata Fakaue lahi. Kia monuina. Ekamwawir Omo
Pictures: www.asiapacific.anu.edu.au
Our canoe has two hulls: Cultural Wisdom and Scientific Wisdom
Vinaka Vakalevu
What about tropical cyclones? Final Draft (7 June 2013)
Technical Summary
IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report
Figure TS.26: Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics. All values represent expected percent change in the average over period 2081–2100 relative to 2000–2019, under an A1B-like scenario, based on expert judgment after