Contents 30 years on with Steve Smith-Eccles
pages 1 – 3
PollysPicks
pages 3 – 9
Festival Focus
pages 9- 14
TeamFOB Cheltenham Preview
pages 14 – 15
SkyBet Cheltenham Preview
pages 15 – 19
Cheltenham trends
pages 19 – 22
Festival Fancies
pages 22 – 23
Cheltenham Handicaps
pages 23 – 29
Festival Favourites (Hot or Not)
pages 30 – 36
Midlands Grand National
pages 37 – 38
AW Champs Finals
pages 38 – 45
Dubai World Cup Preview
pages 45 – 46
30 Years On with Steve Smith Eccles By Rachel Wilson @RachelEMwilson
A picture from last years Champion Hurdle by @mjyharris It’s 30 years since Steve Smith-Eccles won the second of his three Champion Hurdles on Nicky Henderson’s fragile star See You Then. Now a jockey coach, he is perfectly placed to reflect on how things have changed in those three decades, for jockeys and for racing. At his home in Newmarket I talked to him about how the game has evolved: “The biggest change and it’s a change for the better is that the whole business of being a jockey has become so much more professional. In terms of conduct, preparation and organisation there is a world of difference now to how it was in my day.” And the main reasons for this transformation? “To a large extent it’s a response to new rules and regulations. For instance, there are now frequent random drink and drug tests of jockeys. One freezing January day at a course that shall be nameless, the Clerk of the Course came into the Weighing Room and handed me a bottle of whisky and said: ‘Make sure the boys keep warm Eck.’ You can’t image that happening now, can you? “Another major innovation has been the introduction of jockeys’ agents who book all the rides and to a large extent do control a good deal of where and when horses are run. Without an agent there is no chance of a jockey getting rides.” page 1
I ask him how he went about booking rides. “Well people used me because I was attached to top stables - Thompson-Jones and Nicky Henderson- but if I needed to call other trainers I would stop off at a call box on my way racing. You always had to have plenty of change on you! There were no mobile phones to facilitate us.” He also adds that the demands on today’s jockeys are far greater: “There was no racing on Sundays, no summer jumping programme; there is so much more racing today than there was then so that jockeys have to be fitter and better organised. “There is professional help now, with fitness and weight management. Generally people are far more knowledgeable about nutrition and the physical demands of race-riding.” As Steve is my own coach, I know well his abiding mantra, which is that fitness is the absolute cornerstone of race-riding. His warning circuit trains in my head: “If you are unfit, the first thing to go is your legs. Once your legs have gone, your brain goes and then you’re a danger to yourself and everyone else.” Technology has played an important part in modernising the profession too. Just as mobile phones have transformed the way we communicate, the facility to record and play back races to analyse performance wasn’t about when Steve was riding at Cheltenham. “Yes, my Old Man did video my races and he and I would watch them back when I went home to visit, but it wasn’t something that any of us had access to on a daily basis. Being able to set a video to record is a relatively new thing. I think Richard Dunwoody who was ten years behind me, was probably the first to do this in a systematic way.” As a coach Steve often walks the course with first time and Conditional Jockeys to guide them as to race strategy and tactics. At Cheltenham this is a crucial part of preparation for riding in his opinion because: “There is nowhere like Cheltenham. Yes, there are other undulating courses, but there is nowhere else that races are run at such a relentless pace and where the fields are so large and the stakes so high. One of my worst experiences was riding a really fancied horse for Nicky Henderson called Hudson’s Bay in the County Hurdle. I got myself in a lovely position in the box seat, about 3rd or fourth and then going down the back, the fame and glory horses, (the 150-1 shots) started coming back. I got shuffled through the pack and ended up out the back. In the end I was beaten into fourth and I really should have won that race. But it taught me the most valuable lesson. Do not go down the inner in those big handicaps.”
I asked him how the experience of riding at the track has changed: “There have been some changes to the track itself. They have levelled out the landings on the downhill fences as there were so many fallers there. You used to go round a bend by the winning post but that’s been taken out now. In my day, there was no cross-country course and the bumper, which is such an important pointer race now, only came in towards the end of my riding career. I think the drainage has improved in the last 20 years and so the ground conditions are less variable. But one thing that hasn’t changed is that there is never a slow run race at Cheltenham. Pace is all.” I ask his advice to anyone riding the track next week for the first time. “Get a good start. Do not miss the break. Assert yourself. Whatever position you are in, make sure you keep it. Be positive and the fundamental advice common to all race riding that applies in spades in the face of Cheltenham’s daunting undulations: make sure you keep enough petrol in the tank to get up that hill.” Steve will be at Cheltenham as always. He’ll probably be one of the last to leave the track at the end of each day, preferring the warm insides of a bar or box with his ex-jockey hero mates to the traffic queue.
Any jockeys interested in coaching can find Steve at by clicking the link below
Cheltenham Festival - #PollysPicks By Polly Rodgers @PollyRodgers Day 1: Champion Day -Tuesday 15th March 1.30 - Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Altior // Silver Concorde 2.10 - Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Douvan // Fox Norton page3
2.50 - Ultima Handicap Chase Doctor Harper // Un Temps Pour Tout 3.30 - Champion Hurdle Annie Power // Top Notch 4.10 - National Hunt Chase Noble Endeavour // Native River 5.30 -Novices’ Handicap Chase Willow’s Saviour // Bouvreuil Day 2: Ladies Day - Wednesday 16th March
Yanworth 1.30 - Neptune Novices’ Hurdle Yanworth // Barters Hill 2.10 - RSA Chase Blaklion // Vyta du Roc 2.50 - Coral Cup Politologue // Label des Obeaux 3.30 - Queen Mother Champion Chase Un De Sceaux // Dodging Bullets page4
4.10 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Steeple Chase Any Currency // Third Intention 4.50 - Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Kasakn Noir // Duke Street 5.30 - Champion Bumper Ballyandy // High Bridge
Day 3: St. Patrick’s Day Thursday 17th March
Thistlecrack
1.30 - JLT Novices’ Chase Outlander // Sizing John 2.10 - Pertemps Network Final Missed Approach // Arpege D’Alene 2.50 - Ryanair Chase Vautour // Josses Hill 3.30 - World Hurdle Thistlecrack // Whisper 4.10 - The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Chase Village Vic // Kings Palace 4.50 - The Trull House Stud Mares Novices’ Hurdle Bloody Mary // Bantam 5.30 - Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase The Giant Bolster // Splash of Ginge Day 4: Gold Cup Day - Friday 18th March
1.30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle Zubayr // Connetable 2.10 - County Handicap Hurdle Starchitect // Clondaw Warrior 2.50 - Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Shantou Village // Gangster 3.30 - Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Cue Card // Smad Place 4.10 - Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup Paint The Clouds // Current Event 4.50 - Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Qualande // Work in Progress 5.30 - Grand Annual Handicap Chase Next Sensation // The Saint James page6
Smad Place Thoughts in detail of a few runners: Naturally, Willie Mullins is out in force for the Cheltenham Festival and is 1/14 being the Champion Trainer of the festival. The question remains, will anyone else be able to take
him on? Douvan is the 2/5 favourite for the Arkle and rightly so, he has been described by Mullins as a different species and that will all come into play on Day 1. As we’ve seen before, anything can happen in this sport but Douvan is an almost certainty right? The excitement is building and we all want to be shouting ‘Ruby Ruby Ruby’ for Ruby Tuesday! After seeing Yanworth on Cheltenham Trials day, you could see he was something special here after such an amazing victory. He was held up in the early stages at Cheltenham and was ridden really well under Barry Geraghty to ease him back into play for the final circuit. The heavy going on that day didn’t put Yanworth off and came back on the bridle coming back to win by seven lengths. Therefore has already proven his favouritism. This is definitely the one for Alan King on Cheltenham Festival Day 2, as Yanworth has the potential to go even better this time round and is currently leading the betting at 5/4 from Yorkhill. Dodging Bullets at 12/1 is my EW play for the Queen Mother Champion Chase, my heart has always been with DB and it’s great the he has the chance to defend his title. The season for Dodging Bullets hasn’t been the best having been suffering with injury and his latest run was at Newbury where he did disappoint when getting beat by 10 lengths. I don’t think that this race alone should mean that he won’t come back again as there is no doubt that Paul Nicholls will have worked hard to get him ready for this race. The 8/11 shot of Un De Sceaux is another of the Mullins Machines, he’s ready for battle and despite only falling twice in his career and winning the rest, he is the worthy favourite and if you were to go with your head the one that we can see going all the way in this race. Having seen Thistlecrack at Cheltenham at the end of January, he was destined for the World Hurdle, a truly magnificent performance that can only be repeated againon Wednesday. He has continued to improve through the season and seems to be at the top of his game. Colin Tizzard has commented in the press that he is looking more and more like a chaser and he can’t see anything else getting near him in the World Hurdle, will he be right? I certainly think so! I’m going Cue Card for the Gold Cup on the final day of Cheltenham Festival and it could well be my Tizzard Double with Thistlecrack! We haven't seen Cue Card since winning the King George at Kempton in December last year. If CC did go on to win the Gold Cup, there wouldn’t be a dry eye in the Winners Enclosure, after owner, Bob Bishop passed away just 4 days after the race. This run will be in memory of him and for the Bishop family! This time round the opposition this time rounds seems just as tough with a Mullins Trio of Vautour, Don Poli and Djakadam. Cue Card always has run well at Cheltenham and has another chance to showcase how good he really is. As ever, this meeting is described as ‘The Best Show On The Turf’. I don't think anyone could get it more right. The best of the best are here to battle it out so…LET THE SHOW COMMENCE! I wish all the runners and riders a safe trip and good luck to all owners and trainers on what will be a very special meeting. Best of luck to all of you having some little flutters, it’s going to keep us all on our toes! Best Wishes, PR-x page8
Festival Focus By Gordon Millard @WeighedInRacing
Put quite simply the Cheltenham festival is the biggest four days in the jump racing calendar. A tradition that has been graced by all of the super heroes of the jumps world with the speed , power , agility and courage to cross the line first and be the best. In recent years the festival has been dominated by some very familiar names , Paul Nicholls , Nicky Henderson , Willie Mullins and Jonjo O Neill are among the trainers to note. Whilst Ruby Walsh , Barry Geraghty , AP McCoy and Richard Johnson have crossed the line on-board the majority of our super heroes. Around 500 horse will be competing for a share of over £6 million in prize money in the 27 races over the four days. Kicking off with the Supreme Novices Hurdle on Tuesday and climaxing on Friday with the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Other highlights are the Champion Hurdle on day 1 , The Queen Mother Champion Chase on Ladies Day and the World hurdle on Thursday (St Patrick’s Day) where an estimated 250'000 pints of Guinness will be sunk. Another personal highlight for me would be that of the English / Irish rivalry. The festival would certainly not be the same without it. Oh and not to forget the sound that I have waited 361 days to hear the Cheltenham Roar. Day 1 Novices Hurdle A grade 1 race run over 2 miles 110yds for 4yo +. Ruby Walsh has won 4 from the last 5 runnings of this race with 3 of those being trained by Willie Mullins Verdict: YORKHILL (7/1) should be thereabouts. page9
RP Arkle Chase A grade 1 NH steeplechase over 2miles for 5yo +. 2 of the last 4 runnings of this race have gone to the Geraghty / Henderson combination the first of which was with the mighty Sprinter Sacre. Verdict: A race that often runs true to form but with the Fav DOUVAN (4/11) being a little too short ill go with L'AMI SERGE (14/1) EW Champion Hurdle A grade 1 NH Hurdle race over 2 miles 110 yds for 4yo + . A race which J P McManus must be very fond of having 5 wins in his famous colours 3 of which for the mighty ISTABRAQ. Verdict: The highlight of day 1 , and the market has this in the hands of ANNIE POWER (2/1) but I will be taking a chance on MY TENT OR YOURS (10/1) to be the next Henderson horse to roll back the years and get home in front. Mares Hurdle A grade 1 hurdles race over 2 miles 4 furlongs for mares of 4yo + . This race has been dominated by QUEVAGA and Willie Mullins who has trained the winner of the last 7 renewals Verdict: With ANNIE POWER looking to go in the Champion Hurdle my money falls on last years runner up POLLY PEACHUM (6/1) Day 2 RSA Chase A grade 1NH Hurdle over 3 miles 110yds for 5yo+. Astonishingly 13 of the last 16 runnings of this race have been won by a 7yo with 2 of last 4 ridden by Barry Geraghty. Verdict: MORE OF THAT (5/2) ticks all the boxes for me in this one, with the main threat coming from BLACK HERCULES (11/1)
Coral Cup A grade 3 race run over 2 mile 5 furlongs by 4yo+. Another fairly recent addition to the festival since 1993 with no real patterns developing other than Nicky Henderson having 2 from last winners Verdict: I tend to leave this one until race day and follow the money , however its not a proven theory Queen Mother Champion Chase A grade 1 NH Chase run over 2 miles for 5yo+. This race was given as a present to the QM for her 80th birthday in 1980. Barry Geraghty has ridden the winner of this race 5 times including 3 of the last 6 and 2 of the last 4 for trainer Nicky Henderson Verdict: With the fav being far too short for my money I will be having just a small loyalty bet on an old favourite of mine and the 2013 winner SPRINTER SACRE (9/2 Cross Country H/cap Chase
One of the unique x country jumps pictured by @mjyharris A marathon NH Chase run over 3 miles 7 furlongs for 5yo+. This race has been won twice in the last 4 years by the Philip Hobbs trained Balthazar king ridden by Richard Johnson. Contd... page11
Verdict: Hobbs/Johnson tend to play a good hand in this unique race and its with that in mind I go for non other than BALTHAZAR KING (6/1) Champion Bumper A grade 1 NH Flat race for 4-6yr old run over 2 miles 110yds. This race has been dominated since its introduction in 1992 most notably by who else but Willie Mullins having won it 8 times. Verdict: No need to look any further than Willie Mullins for me AUGUSTA KATE (7/1) gets the nod. Day 3 JLT Novices Chase A grade 1 NH Chase for 5y0+ run over 2 mile 4 furlong. With only 4 runnings AP McCoy is the stand out name having ridden the winner twice but he wont be winning this year. Verdict: MORE OF THAT 7/1 Pertemps Final A listed NH Hurdle race for 5yo+ run over 3 miles. Jonjo O Neill is he most successful trainer in this event having won it 4 times , most recently in 2013 with Holywell. Verdict: With only one single priced winner in this in 8 years and plenty of clues on offer too. I will be looking toward JOIN THE CLAN (20/1 and BOX OFFICE (12/1) both give good EW value World Hurdle A grade 1 NH Hurdle for 4yo+ run over 3 miles. The leading long distant hurdle race and the feature on day 3. Verdict: With the fav THISTLECRACK being too short I will look elsewhere for value and I think that could come in the form of a previous winner in COLE HARDEN (8/1)
Day 4 Triumph Hurdle A grade 1 NH Hurdle for 4yo+ run over 2 miles 1 furlong. Nicky Henderson is the most successful trainer in this race with 6 winners , including last year with PEACE AND CO Verdict: Nicky Henderson knows how to win this race so PROTEK DES FLOS (20/1) being a French bred horse has a huge chance however I will poss cover this bet with a small ew on another of his French bred runners CONSUL DE THAIX (33/1) EW County H/cap Hurdle A grade 3 race for 5yo+ run over 2 miles 1 furlong. The Mullins name is synonymous with this race with Willie and Tony having trained the winner of 5 renewals between them as is the Walsh name with Ruby winning it 4 times and Katie also winning once , but the most successful trainer is Paul Nicholls with 4 winners which makes it more interesting Verdict: GREAT FIELD probably rates the one to beat here but I fancy an upset from the other Mullins yard in either GRAND PARTNER (100/1) or SIR SCORPION (50/1) only a small EW bet on each though Cheltenham Gold Cup A grade 1 NH Chase run over 3 miles 2 ½ furlongs jumping 22 fences. Great names such as Golden Miller (5) , Arkle (3) and most recently Best Mate (3) have dominated there eras the later ridden by Jim Culloty who trained a shock winner in Lord Windermere 20/1. Verdict: CUE CARD (5/1) has been a revelation again this year and is my pick for the top prize Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase A NH Chase for 5yo+ run over 2 miles 110yds. This is the oldest race at the festival and was first run in 1834. Last years winner is one of only two horses to carry more than 10st 13lbs to victory in 15 years. page13
Verdict: If there’s any money left in the kitty I will follow the money in this race as it often goes the way of a fancied horse *prices stated are available with Bet365 (NRNB) at time of writing (2/3/16)
TeamFOB Cheltenham Preview By Dr Simon Gillson and Fergal O Brien @FOBRacing The best four days off the year are almost upon us, From a racing point of view, it turns out that Aintree will be a busier meeting for Team FOB this year. Does that diminish our excitement? Not one bit!
We still have Pride of Lecale entered in the Champion Bumper on Wednesday, though he'll need a bit of cut in the ground to line up. And Perfect Candidate will run in the Kim Muir on Thursday with Ally Stirling taking the ride. Our horses are in good form at the moment and we're hoping for a good run from him. So can we find a winner or two for you? Hmmm, tipping is not necessarily our strongest suit! However, on Saturday night Fergal did join the panel at a Cheltenham Festival preview evening along with Mat Nicholls (assistant trainer to Kim Bailey), Paddy Brennan, Melissa Jones (Gloucestershire Echo racing correspondent) and Alistair Whitehouse-Jones (Racing Post)
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The rise of the preview evening has been incredible over the past decade or so and some are so lavish that we might soon see the introduction of previews of the preview evenings. This was a great night and a few things were clear. The panel were united in noting that nothing will be beat Yanworth and Thistlecrack. And you can hardly have failed to be influenced by Paddy's enthusiasm when talking about Cue Card (although Fergal contends that he's not as good as Imperial Commander!). The Victoria Pendleton question arose but you'll have to find us at the racecourse and we'll whisper Paddy's answer to that one! So tips then - Fergal put up Tommy Silver at a big price in the Triumph. Alistair likes Modus in the County though Mat suggests Charbel is their best chance of the week and is likely to run in the same race rather than the Supreme. You shouldn't need to ask for Paddy's best bet and Melissa is very much an Annie Power fan. Whether you are coming to Cheltenham this week, watching in the pub or sitting in your favourite armchair, we wish you the best of luck. We are so fortunate to have an 'Olympics' every year and it's right on our doorstep. We couldn't be more excited!
Skybet Cheltenham Preview Night By Matt Clarkson @MattClarkson3 Wednesday 9th March brought about my annual visit to a Cheltenham Preview Night and one of my favourite nights of the year. Leeds Town Hall was the venue and again the hosts SkyBet didn't disappoint with both the hospitality and the panel.
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The panel consisted of :Dave Ord - SportingLife editor Michael Shinners - SkyBet PR manager Niall Hannity - Racing UK presenter Alex Hammond - Sky Sports News presenter Ed Chamberlain - Sky Sports News presenter Warren Greatrex - Trainer Denis O'Regan - Jockey Donn McClean - Irish Journalist Mark Howard - Racing author The atmosphere inside was good with a crowd of around 1000 people all eagerly anticipating which way the panelists would sway with their selections for the 28 races of the festival. The discussion started with the Supreme Novices Hurdle where the panel were all unanimous, except Warren Greatrex (Altior), in selecting Yorkhill (9/2) for the opening race. A somewhat surprise with the horse only being the stable 2nd string and not definitely appearing in that race. The Champion Hurdle and Arkle Chase were next on the agenda with the panel generally agreeing on an outsider in each for the each way value. My Tent Or Yours (7/1) and The Game Changer (20/1) were the ones chosen as the best bets. The rest of Tuesday's races followed in which the panel were invited to mention if any horses stood out for them. Warren Greatrex sounded very sweet on his own horse Aloomomo (8/1) in the Novices Handicap Chase saying he felt it was his best chance of a winner. This seemed well received by the rest of the panel agreeing with him. The 1st horse I put in the notebook from the night. Noble Endeavor (9/1) was well liked by Alex Hammond and Mark Howard in the National Hunt Chase and the panel were united in choosing Vroum Vroum Mag (11/10) in the Mares Hurdle to round off Tuesday's discussion.
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Wednesdays chat started with the Champion Chase and the team were once again in agreement with another Willie Mullins horse, this time the well fancied Un De Sceaux (4/6). It was at this point Niall Hannity gave the comment of the night in saying that Dodging Bullets would need to set off on Sunday if he was to have any chance of retaining his title! Next race to be discussed was the Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle and another short priced favourite in Yanworth (1/1) taking all the votes. Denis O'Regan said he was one of the best horses he had ever sat on and a few of the panel suggested he was the banker of the festival. No More Heroes (5/2) came out just on top of More Of That (9/4) in the RSA Chase while there were good noises for Foxrock (7/1) and Cantlow (16/1) in the Cross Country Chase to finish Wednesday. At this point six of panel were asked to pick their best bet of the opening 2 days racing with the selections being Yorkhill x2 (NH, DM), Yanworth (DOR), Altior (WG), Noble Endeavor x2 (AH, MH). This concluded part 1 of the evening. After the break and me failing to win anything on raffle, part 2 and the Thursday Friday were then discussed. Limini (10/11) in the Mares Novice Hurdle was the only horse mentioned on Thursday's racing to be fancied by all the panelists. The World Hurdle had an overall vote for Alpha Des Obeaux (6/1) while there were some strong claims made for the Philip Hobbs trained Garde Le Victoire (5/1) in the JLT Novices Chase after his defection from the Arkle. The Ryanair Chase wasn't really mentioned due to so many uncertainties in where horses would actually be running but Niall Hannity did seem rather keen on Smashing (9/1) at an ew price. The 2nd horse to put in the notebook. The final thought on Thursday's racing came from Denis O'Regan about a horse named Mall Dini (16/1) running in the Pertemps Final. He sounded very convincing in his reasoning for choosing the Pat Kelly trained gelding, so much so that I backed him there and then. Horse number 3 in my notebook. Page 17
Vautour The only place Friday's debate could start was with the race of the week. The pinnacle that is the Timlico Cheltenham Gold Cup. Warren Greatrex was bullish about Don Poli (11/2), even saying he thought he was the best bet of the whole festival. A shout for the Rich Ricci owned Vautour (9/2) and Djakadam (11/2) from Mark Howard but the rest of the panel were with Greatrex in saying Don Poli was the one to take home the showpiece trophy. The Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle was an interesting topic with each person choosing a different horse. Gangster (8/1), Shantou Village (5/1) and Up For Review (12/1) were amongst those mentioned along with the market leader Barters Hill (5/2). The Triumph Hurdle was next to be discussed and the panel were keen on both Sceau Royal (15/2) and the once raced Zubayr (5/1) before concluding that backing the Victoria Pendleton ridden Pacha Du Polder (16/1) wouldn't be the best decision despite the fairytale story. Page 18
Then the six panel members were once again asked to choose their best bets of the final 2 days with the selections being Limini (MH), Alpha Des Obeaux (DM), Sceau Royal (DOR), Don Poli (WG), Smashing (NH), Shantou Village (AH). Denis O'Regan added that he was most looking forward to riding Adamir (16/1) in the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle. The 4th and final horse of the night for my notebook and my each way lucky 15 complete. That concluded another fantastic night of racing discussions in Leeds with the panel leaving to warm round of applause. Again another ÂŁ10 well spent and well worth every penny. The ideal night before the festival and it certainly heightens the excitement and anticipation. I'm already looking forward to next year's SkyBet Cheltenham Festival Preview Night in Leeds.
Cheltenham Trends By @toonmick70 The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 9 of the last 10 winners won on their last start 8 of the last 10 winners had their last run in February The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 150 or higher All of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out The Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11-03 or less 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start
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The Stan James Champion Hurdle 8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 & 8 8 of the last 10 winners were rated 163 or higher 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start The OLBG Mares’ Hurdle 7 of the last 8 winners were rated 150 or higher 7 of the last 8 winners won their last completed start The National Hunt Steeple Chase 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8 7 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their last completed start 8 of the last 10 winners had won a race since 1st November The Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11-07 or less 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start The Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle All of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their last completed start The RSA Chase 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st/2nd on their last completed start All of the last 10 winners had won a race since November 1st The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 8 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their last completed start 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least 3 times since November 1st The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or older 8 of the last 10 winners were rated 164 or higher 8 of the last 10 winners won their last completed start
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The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 9 or older 8 of the last 10 winners carried 10-13 or less The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-11 or more All of the last 10 winners had run since February 1st The Weatherbys Champion Bumper 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 All of the last 10 winners had won their previous start The JLT Novices’ Chase All of the last 5 winners were aged 6 or 7 All of the last 5 winners were rated 146 or higher All of the last 5 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their last completed start The Pertemps Network Final 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or older 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11-04 or less The Ryanair Chase 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or older 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 156 or higher The Ladbrokes World Hurdle 7 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 & 8 8 of the last 10 winners were rated 158 or higher 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 2 on their last completed start The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 8 of the last 10 winners carried 10-11 or less 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 135 or higher The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 7 & 9 All of the last 10 winners carried 10-10 or more 8 of the last 10 winners had at least 3 runs since November 1st page 21
The JCB Triumph Hurdle 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their last completed start 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least 50% of their runs since November 1st The Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 All of the last 10 winners carried 11-04 or less All of the last 10 winners were rated between 131 & 139 The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7 All of the last 10 winners were rated 135 or higher The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 7 & 9 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 162 or higher 8 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their last completed start The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Chase 8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 8 & 10 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle All of the 7 winner were aged 5 or 6 All of the 7 winners carried 11-01 or more The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 7 & 9 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11-02 or less
Festival Fancies By Joe Smith @Smithyjoe16 Yanworth- Alan King- Neptune novices hurdle Unbeaten over hurdles, very impressive last time out against a very strong field. Before that unlucky in running in champion bumper at 2015 festival. Proven himself over the course and distance. The apple of Alan King’s eye! Going to be very hard to beat. Page 22
More of That- Jonjo O’Neil- RSA Chase World hurdle winner in 2014. Off for a season with injury but returned this season over fences and is unbeaten. Hard to judge the form of those wins but jumps well and has always shown a dog warrior spirit. Brave to back against. Loves Cheltenham!
Bristol De Mai- Nigel Twiston Davies- JLT novices chase The extra half a mile seems to be the making of this horse. One of the most natural jumpers anyone will see at this year’s festival.
Sceau Royal- Alan King- Triumph hurdle Has arguably the strongest form of the field going into this year’s race. Visually very impressive last time out. Improving with every run and seems to be a very neat hurdler.
Don Cossack-Gordon Eliiot- Gold cup This year’s gold cup is very competitive indeed. This horse isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but I am a fan. Not the most straightforward but he finishes off his race very well indeed and the gold cup trip should be right up his street. If he can brush up on the odd jumping error and have a fault free round then there is no doubt he will be involved at the business end.
Cheltenham Handicaps By Dean Kilbryde @SimplyHorseTips Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f Key Stats • 12 of the last 15 winners carried less than 11stone • 11 of the last 15 winners came from the first 4 in the betting • 7 of the last 13 winners arrived at the Festival on the back of a win last time out • 8 of the last 18 winners had won or placed at the Festival in previous years • 9 of the last 30 winners were the SP 2nd favourite • In over 30 years there has not been a winner rated 150+ • 14 of the last 16 winners were rated no higher than 143 • Only 2 winning favourites since 1977 • Jonjo O'Neill, Alan King and Nicky Henderson have good records in this race
Out Sam – 7yo – rated 139 Out Sam arrives here in good form having won twice already in 2016, albeit over shorter trips on both occasions. On his latest run he beat a previous winner in to 3rd (Activial) and the 2nd placed horse (Milansbar) has won since so the form appears strong. He seems pretty versatile in his running style, having made all the running on a couple of occasions yet coming from off the pace on others, so despite little experience in big-field handicaps he should be comfortable either racing prominently or being held up to pounce closer to home. However, all four of his career wins have come on soft-to-heavy ground so with good-to-soft ground forecast this may not play to his strengths. In terms of the key stats, he fits in to many of the positive trends. Rated at 139 with a weight of 10-02 and having won last time out. However he also has a couple of the negative stats on his side too, currently the clear favourite for this race and having never won or placed at a previous Festival (he was a faller in the Albert Bartlett last year). Kruzhlinin – 9yo – rated 148 At this stage Kruzhlinin already looks to be a positive choice given that he currently occupies the 2nd favourite spot in the market. An impressive 5 length winner on seasonal reappearance (1st run in 11 months) at Kempton in January and a solid career record of 5 wins and 2 placed from 15 over fences means he is currently rated at 148. This puts him a little high when looking at the key stats, although it is worth noting that in the last two years the winners have been successful off 145 and 146 respectively. The 9 year old has contested a handicap chase previously here at Cheltenham (2013) although was unsuccessful, pulling up after a mistake. On a more positive note he is proven on good, good-to-soft and heavy ground so should be at home in any conditions and has been given a decent break since his January return so should arrive fresh, fit and raring to go. Holywell – 9yo – rated 153 The Jonjo O'Neill trained Holywell brings excellent Festival form in to this race having won here in 2013 and 2014 before finishing a respectable 4th in last years' Gold Cup. However, his form so far this year has left much to be desired having disappointed in both the Charlie Hall Chase and the Betfair Chase in 2015 and was pulled up a long way from home when last seen in the Skybet Chase in January. With a weight of 11-02 and an official rating of 153 he would have to defy some longstanding stats to emerge victorious here and his recent form suggests this is unlikely to happen.... although with such a good record here he still deserves plenty of respect. The Young Master – 7yo – rated 149 The Young Master came in to last years' Festival having won 4 in a row but was ultimately outclassed in the RSA, finishing 7th of 8 and some 50+ lengths behind the winner Don Poli. This season hasn't been as kind to him although a placed effort on reappearance and a respectable 4th at Ascot just before Christmas, along with a run over hurdles in January suggests that he could just be warming up for a big run here.contd... page 24
From a stats perspective, The Young Master just creeps in under the 150 rating “ceiling” at 149, will run off 10-12 and although hasn't won or placed at a previous Festival he does bring solid course and distance form to the table having won here in October 2014. It would be no surprise to see him do well as he comes from the same stable as last years' winner The Druids Nephew who a very similar preparation route and trainer Neil Mulholland will surely relish the chance to gain back-to-back wins in this race. Carole's Destrier – 8yo – rated 151 Neil Mulholland is also likely to run Carole's Destrier who beat Welsh Grand National winner Mountainous when last seen in December 2015 and has won 4 from 9 over fences (3 of these over trips of around 3 miles). He has never raced at the Festival before although has finished 4th in a handicap chase here over a shorter trip and is at home with almost any ground conditions having won on good, good-to-soft, soft and heavy ground. Racing off 11 stone and a rating of 151 means that if you follow the stats you are unlikely to find the winner here although his overall career record and versatility regarding conditions means he deserves a mention. Theatre Guide – 9yo – rated 139 Theatre Guide has had a solid season so far, placing on his first 3 runs before an impressive 10 length victory when last seen at Kempton in February, giving him a 100% strike rate for top 3 finishes this season. Furthermore, his record over the larger obstacles is also pretty impressive with a 50% career strike rate for making the frame (4 wins and 5 placed efforts from 18 runs). From a stats perspective he races off a weight of 10-13 and a rating of 139, won last time out and is currently within the first four in the betting. He hasn't made the frame at previous Festivals but has placed twice from five here at Cheltenham and although was a disappointing 11th in this race last year he arrives here in much better form and with the stable going well too. Kings Palace – 8yo – rated 152 At this stage Kings Palace is entered in numerous races at the Festival and with an official rating of 152 the stats would suggest this may not be his race for winning. He put in a bit of a lacklustre performance on seasonal reappearance and was pulled up when well beaten at Chepstow last month so whichever race he turns up for he'll have a bit of a point to prove, however with an excellent record of 4 wins from 7 at Cheltenham including two over this trip he has to go on the shortlist. Summary With so many of the field also entered for alternative races and the majority of recent runners coming from the first four in the betting I have attempted to concentrate on the main contenders according to the current best odds.contd..... page 25
It can be seen above that no horse ticks every box when it comes to the key stats and as such they are best used for guidance rather than as gospel, for example two years ago the stats would suggest to look for a horse rated 143 or less yet the last two years have seen winners in excess of this. Furthermore, there are always horses who have been specifically aimed at and trained for just the one race in a season therefore their recent form may not speak volumes about the true levels of race fitness (e.g. last years' winner The Druids Nephew). As such I'm splitting my stake for this race and going with the in-form Theatre Guide along with the The Young Master, both currently available at decent each way prices of 14/1. Pertemps Network Final (2miles 7furlongs 213yards) Key Stats • 11 out of 20 winners were also winners last time out • Only 1 5yo winner in the last 40 years • Horses rated 150+ have a very poor record in this race • Horses aged 8+ have won 7 of the last 10 • Only 2 of the last 12 winners had a single figure SP, although these were in the last 2 renewals • Qualifier race winners have only produced 2 winners from the last 19 Leave At Dawn – 6yo – rated 132 Early favourite Leave At Dawn has 3 career wins from 11, winning over 16f, 21f and 22f on soft, good and good-to-soft ground respectively. He also brings course form to the table having won on his only previous visit to Prestbury Park in November 2015. However he could only manage 5th last time out, on his first attempt over 3miles, and although it was also his first run on heavy ground i'm not convinced this is his optimum trip. Cup Final – 7yo – rated 139 The Nicky Henderson trained Cup Final is provisionally entered here and in the Martin Pipe but would have to be considered a contender whichever he race he turned up for. He returned from over a year away from the track with a Pertemps Final qualifier victory at Musselburgh last month and has an 80% career strike rate for top 3 finishes. With such a long absence to overcome last time out another run just over a month later could be a concern but he proved he retains all of his previous ability so cannot be discounted here.
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Missed Approach – 6yo – rated 143 Missed Approach is currently hovering around the 10/1 mark and arrives here with a career record of 4 wins from 5 runs. His was last seen winning at Newbury in November 2015, in a Pertemps Final qualifier. Although this looks to be a negative when looking at the key stats, he produced a polished performance culminating in a commanding 12 length victory, his first attempt in handicap company. Now rated 143 and with 2 wins from 2 over 3miles he must be a leading contender here. Uknowhatimeanharry – 8yo – rated 152 With an official rating of 152 it would appear Uknowhatimeanharry could struggle in this race (he is also entered in two other races over the course of the Festival) however if racing here he would bring by far the most impressive form to the table having won his last 4 races including 2 here at Prestbury Park, 1 over course and distance. If In Doubt – 8yo – rated 146 If In Doubt wasn't disgraced when finishing 9th off a mark of 140 in the 2014 renewal of this race and also contested the RSA Chase last year, finishing 5th of 8. He returned to hurdles after recent disappointment over fences to win a Pertemps Final qualifier on Boxing Day and has winning form over 3miles (albeit over fences). With 3 wins and 3 placed efforts from 9 over hurdles for a 66% strike rate he deserves another crack at this race and could be good enough to grab a place this time out. Arpege D'Alene – 6yo – rated 140 The Paul Nicholls trained Arpege D'Alene showed real battling qualities to win a Pertemps Final qualifier at Chepstow last month and now has a career win rate of 75% over hurdles having won 3 from 4. Just 3 weeks rest following this latest race isn't ideal considering how tough a race it looked but nevertheless he is still one for the shortlist. Summary This race doesn't have the strongest of stats to use as a guide and many of the market principles tick boxes on both the positive and negative sides. As such, I will be concentrating on horses which fit more positive than negative, are in good form and are proven over the trip and therefore will be opting for Missed Approach each way at 10/1.
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Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) - 2m 62f Key Stats • Irish horses have produced 6 winners and 4 placed efforts from the last 16 renewals • 14 of the last 16 winners carried less than 11 stone (last 2 years 11-02 & 11-05 respectively) • 5 of the last 9 winners had contested this race previously • 8 of the last 14 winners had previously won at Cheltenham • 13 of the last 34 winners were novices (4 of the last 7) although no novice rated over 140 • Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have good records in this race • Only 1 winner from the last 16 was aged over 9 Next Sensation – 9yo – rated 144 Next Sensation won this race last year off a mark of 143, going one better than when a close 4th off a mark of 142 in 2014 so is the obvious starting point. Although his form this year doesn't look the greatest on paper he has benefitted from a drop in the ratings as a consequence and aims to follow up on last years success off a mark of 144. At the age of 9 he isn't getting any younger but he obviously likes this race and looks to have been primed for this throughout the whole season. Velvet Maker – 7yo – rated 143 Velvet Maker has been beaten by Douvan the last twice (both over 17f) but this in itself is no disgrace especially when considering his last two runs over 16f have seen him win over fences and hurdles by 10 and 11 lengths respectively. Guitar Pete – 6yo – rated 135 Guitar Pete has placed twice from three at Cheltenham and although was 7th of 7 last time out this was a prep race over hurdles which is a positive trend for this race and he boasts a 61% strike rate for making the frame when racing over jumps (50% over fences, 66% over hurdles). Eastlake – 10yo – rated 143 Based on last years performance it would be no surprise to see runner up Eastlake return with a big run and has to be considered racing off a mark of 143, 1lb lower than last year. However he will need to show some improvement on recent form having been pulled up in 3 from 4 races this season, and his age goes against him according to the key race stats.
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Arthurs Oak – 8yo – rated 148 Arthurs Oak has already raced 4 times this season, winning three and finishing a close second in the other, all over a 2 mile trip (he has a strike rate of 83% for making the frame over this race distance). In his most recent run, at Chepstow in February, he led from the front and put in an impressive round of jumping to win by 5 lengths so although will be making his Festival debut off a weight of 11stone 5lbs he is arriving here in great form. Rock The World – 8yo – rated 140 Rock The World hasn't been seen since winning over course and distance in October, although has raced three times this season, winning two and placing once. This will be his first run at the Festival but with a career strike rate of 66% for top two finishes he is worth a look at decent each way odds. Summary As with the Pertemps Final, there are a number of the field who fit with both positive and negative stats. I have attempted to pick out those who I feel fit best or who have the better recent form, although to save on space it is worth noting that there are others not mentioned who also fit with the key stats. My selection for this race is Next Sensation at current best odds of 10/1 although Arthurs Oak also caught my eye despite the relatively big weight, and is available at current best odds of 16/1. Handicaps in full: Tues - Ultima Handicap Chase – The Young Master 14/1 & Theatre Guide 14/1 Tues – Novices Handicap Chase – Killer Crow 12/1 Wed – Coral Cup – Rock The Kasbah 14/1 Wed – Fred Winter – Kasakh Noir 20/1 Thurs – Pertemps Final – Missed Approach 10/1 Thurs – Brown Advisory Plate – La Vaticane 25/1 Thurs – Kim Muir – The Job Is Right 20/1 Fri – County Hurdle – Henry Higgins 16/1 Fri – Martin Pipe – Qualando 10/1 Fri – Grand Annual – Next Sensation 10/1 As a final note I will also be backing the David Pipe trained Starchitect in whichever race he goes for – no stand out stats to follow but a consistent performer and a personal favourite of mine.
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Festival Favourites – Hot Or Not By Grant Copson @thefinalflight1 After writing my first piece for the new online magazine, The Weighing Room, I am delighted to be here writing my second column, this time focussing on some of the favourites at the Cheltenham Festival and giving my personal opinion on whether they are worthy of their current position in the market. I give each horse a verdict of ‘Hot’ or ‘Not’ based on various aspects such as strength of opposition, proven course form, current price and much more. I also give them a star rating up to 5, giving you an indication of the strength of my opinion. I hope you enjoy this column and that it provides you with an alternative angle when assessing the chances of some of next week’s ‘good things’. GRADE 1 SKY BET SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE A talking horse all summer, MIN made a superb debut at Punchestown in December, beating subsequent winner Gurteen by a very easy fourteen lengths. He followed up at the same venue a month later when taking the Grade 2 Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle and this display hardened his position as the ante-post favourite for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Although I was very impressed on both occasions by this Willie Mullins-trained gelding, the festival curtain raiser looks a decent renewal on paper with Nicky Henderson’s unbeaten pairing of ALTIOR and BUVEUR D’AIR looking strong opposition. A further reason to air on the side of caution with the favourite is that he has been particularly fresh in his two outings to date. Cue Card (2011) and Jezki (2013), who went on to be high-class performers were far too keen in this race when beaten into fourth and third respectively and this is definitely something to take into account before taking a relatively short price about this Rich Ricci-owned 5-year-old. Buveur D’Air is open to more improvement than most in this race, having yet to tackle graded company, but I have a soft spot for his battle hardened stablemate Altior and I think that he can prove to be the biggest danger to Min on the day. He has showed plenty of ability in his four starts over timber, latterly when winning a race at Kempton that is traditionally a strong ungraded event and the manner in which he did so gives me reason to believe that he has the raw ability to overhaul his more fancied rival. VERDICT ON MIN: NOT STAR RATING: *** GRADE 1 RACING POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY DOUVAN was the brilliant winner of last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and he has made an effortless transition to the larger obstacles this term, winning all three starts in facile fashion. He has looked every inch a superstar to this point and with the likely opposition a long way short of Willie Mullins’ son of Walk In The Park, he looks the banker of the entire meeting. Page 30
Although he is currently trading at prohibitive odds of 2/5, I find it impossible to oppose this 6-year-old, with early season challengers such as GARDE LA VICTOIRE and L’AMI SERGE looking certain to re-route to the Grade 1 JLT Novices’ Chase two days later. Another of Rich Ricci’s equine stars, Douvan looks to have the world at his feet, the most exciting horse in training in my opinion and I expect him to prove himself to be up there with the likes of Moscow Flyer, Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre with domination of the two mile division in the coming seasons. VERDICT ON DOUVAN: HOT STAR RATING: ***** GRADE 1 STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE Crack mare ANNIE POWER has been supplemented for this season’s Champion Hurdle following the devastating news that the reigning champion, Faugheen, has been ruled out with an injury and she now sits at the head of the market for this prestigious two mile showpiece. After famously coming to grief at the final obstacle in last season’s Mares’ Hurdle with the race at her mercy, Annie Power reappeared this season at Punchestown in February and as expected, she won easily at odds of 1/20. Although this daughter of Shirocco is unbeaten at the minimum distance, I personally feel that she is a better horse over further and I have a suspicion that she will get outpaced at a crucial stage in this race. There is absolutely no doubt that she oozes class, but at her current odds of 2/1, I feel that she is priced on what she could potentially achieve rather than what she has actually achieved. Taking the above into account, I advise that her stablemate NICHOLS CANYON is the likely winner of the race. He has solid form in the book and with the drying ground likely to suit, he therefore offers fantastic value at 11/2. A classy recruit from the flat, this gelding has the tactical speed as well as the staying capabilities to record his biggest success to date. VERDICT ON ANNIE POWER: NOT STAR RATING: **** GRADE 1 OLBG MARES’ HURDLE Unbeaten in eight starts since joining Willie Mullins is 2014, VROUM VROUM MAG has successfully switched back to timber this winter, showing a real liking to the smaller obstacles, winning at Clonmel over two miles in December before scoring at Ascot over three miles a month later. I was very much under the impression that this 7-year-old would go for the World Hurdle but with the aforementioned Annie Power switching to the Champion Hurdle, the door is left open for this talented mare to contest the Mares’ Hurdle. Having shown plenty of versatility in terms of trip, I predict that she will take an awful lot
of beating if lining up here. She was very much on top at the finish at Ascot and visually I was extremely impressed with her performance that day. The two and a half miles that she will face at the festival looks perfect, with her big race jockey, Ruby Walsh, likely to send her into an early lead and test the stamina of her opponents. She has a serious engine and even though she is yet to prove she has anywhere near the ability of Annie Power, it will still take a very good mare to deny her a maiden Grade 1 success. VERDICT ON VROUM VROUM MAG: HOT STAR RATING: **** GRADE 1 NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
Yorkhill pictured by @mjyharris Having showed plenty of speed in his first three starts over hurdles, I was slightly surprised to see YANWORTH step up in trip at Cheltenham in January, but his breathtaking performance on that occasion was enough to justify Alan King’s opinion that he has always promised to be a better horse when tackling intermediate trips. He looks to have all the attributes for this race, one that has often provided a pointer to the following season’s Champion Hurdle, and he rates as leading owner JP McManus’ best chance of a winner at the festival. An electric turn of foot is a destructive weapon to have in your armour and this son of Norse Dancer certainly has that. He is regarded by many as the home ‘banker’ and although at the time of writing it is rumoured that the talented Grade 1 winner YORKHILL is going to contest this race, Yanworth has the potential to send National
Hunt racing fans delirious, as I predict that he will emerge as one of the stars of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival. VERDICT ON YANWORTH: HOT STAR RATING: ***** GRADE 1 BETWAY QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
Un De Sceaux pictured by @mjyharris Last season’s Arkle hero UN DE SCEAUX lines up here attempting to emulate Sizing Europe and Sprinter Sacre by completing the Arkle/Champion Chase double in recent years, a feat that the aforementioned pair completed in 2011 and 2013 respectively. He is well-known for a lapse in concentration which has twice caused him to tip up, but on the whole his jumping is assured and on form, he looks a tailor-made winner of the Champion Chase. In other years where the opposition has been stronger, I would have been against Un De Sceaux for the reason mentioned above. However, the lack of serious opposition means that opposing him is very difficult and not something that I am willing to advise you do. Arguably, the once brilliant SPRINTER SACRE would not need to be at his awesome best to get topside of the favourite here, but I have reservations that he is anywhere near that level of form, even after a visually impressive display at Prestbury Park in November. I was thrilled to see this Nicky Henderson-trained gelding show a tremendous attitude to deny SIRE DE GRUGY in the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase over Christmas, but given
that the pair finished so close together, I feel that they both need to take a good step forward to trouble Un De Sceaux. Reigning Champion Chaser DODGING BULLETS is worth a mention as I feel that on last season’s display, he rates at the most likely challenger to Willie Mullins’ trailblazer. Granted, he must come on plenty for his seasonal reappearance at Newbury last month but he was entitled to be in desperate need of that outing and with the better ground guaranteed to be in his favour, he is the horse that I feel will follow Un De Sceaux home. VERDICT ON UN DE SCEAUX: HOT STAR RATING: **** GRADE 1 JLT NOVICES’ CHASE BRISTOL DE MAI is the worth favourite for this race after showing gradual improvement throughout the campaign, particularly since stepping up in trip beyond the minimum distance. However, with the drying ground likely to be more of a hindrance to this Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained 5-year-old compared to some of his opposition, I feel that it worth taking on this bold jumping grey. This year’s renewal is very open on paper and I have long been a fan of Philip Hobbs’ GARDE LA VICTOIRE who is three from three over the larger obstacles including when beating Bristol De Mai on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter (also came out on top when the pair met in last season’s Contenders’ Hurdle at Sandown). Although he has already proved that he is effective over the minimum distance, I have always thought that he would appreciate a step-up in trip when switched to fences and this looks the ideal opportunity for him to prove himself as a genuine Grade 1 horse. In most years, he would more than likely to be contesting the Arkle (stable won with Captain Chris in 2011) but Douvan heading there may be a blessing in disguise and I think that this son of Kapgarde has the determination and class to confirm the form with the favourite once more. One of many other interesting contenders here is L’AMI SERGE who made a good start to his chasing career at Plumpton and Wetherby before disappointing in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Warwick last month. This Simon Munir and Isaac Souedeowned gelding has always promised to make a better chaser and given that he ran a very good race to finish fourth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at last season’s festival, he should not be dismissed lightly. VERDICT ON BRISTOL DE MAI: NOT STAR RATING: ***** GRADE 1 RYANAIR WORLD HURDLE Colin Tizzard’s THISTLECRACK was an revelation when stepping up to three miles as a novice hurdler, landing the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree before being narrowly denied at Punchestown and he regained a winning thread in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November before adding another Grade 1 to his trophy cabinet by destroying his rivals in the JLT Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot a month later. With
question marks about his effectiveness around Cheltenham now put to bed after an authoritative display in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle in January, this 8-year-old son of Kayf Tara looks a staying hurdler with terrific potential. Granted, the form is there for everyone to see and that is the reason why he is currently the 6/5 favourite, but statistics also tell me that Thistlecrack is going to be very difficult to beat as well. No less than six horses in the last ten years contested the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury before going onto winning the World Hurdle. Add to that four winners of the Long Walk Hurdle and five winners of the Cleeve Hurdle and there you have a rock solid favourite with a lot of things in his favour and in my opinion, is actually a very good bet at the current odds. As with any race at the Cheltenham Festival, competition is fierce and horses such as SAPHIR DU RHEU and ALPHA DES OBEAUX are worth a mention as the former has recently undergone a wind operation and if repeating his second placed effort from last year, he shouldn’t be far away. Mouse Morris’ Alpha Des Obeaux looked held by Thistlecrack at Aintree when coming down and although he has progressed again this season, I do not feel that he has the touch of class that the favourite possesses. Last year’s hero COLE HARDEN obviously enters calculations and although he has put in two lacklustre performances so far this season, he has been primed for the big day and looks a leading contender to follow home Thistlecrack. However, I predict that WHISPER is the horse for the forecast with the favourite as he is still a horse with a good deal of potential. Twice a winner of the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree (last season beating Cole Harden 3 1/1 lengths), Nicky Henderson’s gelding has also disappointed this season on ground that is far too soft for him but granted a sounder surface, I predict that this strong travelling 8-year-old can beat the rest and finish second at a tasty 14/1. VERDICT ON THISTLECRACK: HOT STAR RATING: ***** GRADE 1 JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE Most favourites at the Cheltenham Festival are at the head of the market based on form and rightly so. However, in the Triumph Hurdle, IVANOVICH GORBATOV is currently the 9/2 favourite and that is quite unbelievable on the back of a disappointing effort in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle where he was a well-beaten fourth. The winner and the third that day, FOOTPAD and LET’S DANCE, are priced up at 12/1 and on that basis alone, I think that Aiden O’Brien’s 4-year-old is far too short. Granted, he was an impressive winner of maiden hurdle at Leopardstown in December, beating Let’s Dance in the process, but in my opinion that form does not warrant him to be favourite here and he is definitely one to swerve at his current odds. The race did lack a potential superstar prior to the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at Kempton last month, but the winner ZUBUYR created a deep impression with a comfortable 3 ¾ length success and in doing so he forged his way to near the head of the betting. Graded events outside the spring festivals can often be run at a slow gallop, meaning that a horse can look impressive purely because of their turn of foot and this is
very misleading when assessing a race such as the Triumph Hurdle. However, the Adonis was run at a proper gallop. The Dan Skelton-trained Azzuri was sent into an early lead by Harry Skelton and the fact that only Zubayr was able to get past, this tells me that he went off at a decent pace. The manner that Paul Nicholls’ gelding travelled throughout was eye catching enough but his turn of foot off a strong gallop was something to get very excited about. He was green as grass in the closing stages and that offers hope that there is plenty more to come and there is every chance that this son of Authorized can emulate Zarkandar and complete the Adonis/Triumph double. VERDICT ON IVANOVICH GORBATOV: NOT STAR RATING: ***** GRADE 1 ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE Tough, resilient and classy are three words that I have used on numerous occasions to describe the unbeaten BARTERS HILL this season. A very good bumper horse last term, this Ben Pauling-trained gelding made a smooth transition to timber when bolting up in a novice hurdle at Huntingdon before landing the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle on his next start at Newbury in December. Pauling then selected the Garde 2 River Don over three miles at Doncaster as his Cheltenham Festival trial where he had to dig deep to deny the challenge of BALLYDINE in the closing stages. I was never under the impression that the runner-up would get past on that occasion but for some reason I have a nagging doubt that Barters Hill doesn’t possess enough speed to see off both SHANTOU VILLAGE or BLEU ET ROUGE in this race and for that reason he is worth opposing at 11/4. Even though this race is often described as an attritional test for young hurdlers, with the predicted better ground, I do not expect that this will be the case this time around. Although it is likely that David Bass will attempt to make all on Barters Hill, I don’t expect him to tearaway as he will ruin his own chances and after leading the whole way around, he could be a sitting duck turning for home. Both Shantou Village (2nd to Yanworth last time out) and Bleu Et Rouge (winner of the Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle) showed plenty of speed in those respective races and I predict that they will be a big threat to Barters Hill on the runin, where a burst of speed may allow either of them to put the race to bed. There is no doubt that this is a tough race to assess and it is definitely not one of my more confident predictions for the week. However, I feel that this is a very open race, with a number of leading contenders and the 11/4 that is available doesn’t offer much value. VERDICT ON BARTERS HILL: NOT STAR RATING: **
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Midlands Grand National By Gordon Millard @WeighedInRacing A listed national hunt, handicap steeplechase over 4 miles, 1 furlong and 110 yards at Uttoxeter Races. First run on May 3 1969 but now more traditionally run in March with this years renewal being on the 19th. The purse for this fantastic race is a huge £130,000. No horse has ever won this race on more than one occasion and only a handful of jockeys have managed to get home in front on 2 occasions including @bpowell13. So the stand out stat for this race has to be the trainer @DavidPipeRacing who has trained no less than 4 of the last 5 winners. Only 3 horses have carried 11st + to success in this race in the last 22 running's with the same figure being applicable for horses aged 10 yrs or older and only 2 horses under the age of 7 have ever won. So with this in mind we can possibly narrow the field ever so slightly. However it will be at our peril it would seem to write off anything entered by the queen of the Saturday stayers @beaubai
Armed with one final thought in mind, that irish bred horses have been prolific in this race in recent years I will try and put together a shortlist. However with the final declarations not made until Thursday 17th March its not really that short. I am however hopeful that a few of these will fall by the wayside due to other engagements etc and make the decision on the day an easier one. SHORTLIST Firebird Flyer 14/1 – 9yr old trained by Evan Williams, currently rated 138 and will hopefully fall below the 11st mark on the day. Sizing Coal 16/1 – 8yr old irish trained horse for the J T R Dreaper yard, rated 133 at present. Top Wood 20/1 – The first of 3 D Pipe trained horses on the list this horse is a 9yr old rated at 133. Standing Ovation 25/1 – The next in the Pipe trion to make the list, this 9yr old 134 rated horse makes the list only on the premise that the ground will be on the quicker side. Gonalston Cloud 33/1 – This 9yr old has been a revelation since joining Nick Kent and off a mark of 124 will definetly have a shout. Doing Fine 20/1 – 8yr old rated 134 trained by Rebecca Curtis. Lightly campaigned and been well rested which could be the key to this horse. Contd... page 37
Count Guido Deiro 20/1 – 9yr old 129 rated Nigel Twiston-Davis runner who certainly has more than enough ability if getting the jumping right. Cork Citizen 33/1 – The last of the Pipe trio but by no means the least. This 125 rated 8yr old looks to have been the one to have had the best prep of the Pipe runners for this race. Berea Boru 20/1 – Never gone beyond 3 miles this 8yr old 131 rated P Bowen runner but has won over 3 mile more than once in very testing conditions so im hoping will have the stamina required. Benvolio 33/1 – 9yr old P Nicholls trained 136 rated horse. Was a les than impressive PU behind Mountainous in the belated Welsh National, however the Nicholls horses have got going late this year and this one certainly has the credentials. Beeves 33/1 – J Candlish has her horses in good order at the right time for this race and I will not be surprised if this 128 rated 9yr old gets involved.
AW Champs Finals By Daniel Hawkins @DanielHawkins12
AW Champs Finals Day Last year, over 9,000 race goers packed into Lingfield Park to witness the second annual All-Weather Championship Finals Day. The 32red.com sponsored event became the richest all-weather meeting in Great British horse racing history, with over £1 million worth of prize money on offer across the seven race card. We look ahead to this year’s renewal of the event and delve into the seven championship categories to see who is in the running to become this years champions of the All-weather. Page 38
Fillies And Mares Championship Conditions Stakes Won last year by the Pia Brandt trained, Freslas, French compatriot Caointiorn looks to follow in her footsteps after victory in the Miss Satamixa Listed Stakes at Deauville in late December. Caointiorn, the 4 year old filly trained by Stephane Wattel, won that fast track qualifier in an impressive fashion and looks to be heading over the channel with a great chance. William Haggas will look to have the 5 year old South African mare, Cold As Ice, primed and ready to challenge for this crown. A serial winner for Joey Ramsden in South Africa last winter over 5-7 furlongs, she moved over to William Haggas’ stable for this winters campaign and has settled in nicely. She may have needed the run when sent off evens favourite on her first run for the stable in a fast track qualifier for this final at Wolverhampton (the mare finished 4th 3 lengths behind Lamar). But on her second run at Chelmsford, ridden again by jockey Bernard Fayd'Herbe, they made all and beat the in form Realize, who has franked the form and won twice at Lingfield since. A recent 3rd over 6 furlongs in the Listed Cleves Stakes at Lingfield, this time ridden by Joe Fanning, she slightly dwelt at the start and was unable to get out and make all but did run on in the final furlong. William Haggas will be hoping she can get out and dictate in the final. All-Weather Champion Jockey Luke Morris will be hoping to get his ban overturned on appeal so he can ride Don’t Be for Sir Mark Prescott. She was 3rd in the race last year and with the winner Freslas not re-appearing and James Tate’s Lemar seemingly going for the Easter Cup, this looks like a good opportunity for the 5 year old Cape Cross mare. Morris steered Don’t Be to victory over the Winter Derby winner Grandiser in the Quebec Stakes at Lingfield before Christmas. That was over 1 mile 2 furlongs but the mare is equally adept over this trip of 7 furlongs. Last on our shortlist is the Mick Channon trained Volunteer Point. The progressive 4 year old filly finished 4th to Caointiorn in the Miss Satamixa Listed Stakes and Deauville, but has won twice since at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs and at Lingfield over a mile. That has seen her BHA rating clime from 88 to 102 since December and it seems she still has some more improving to do. Mick Channon will be hoping to book Graham Gibbons for the ride as he has a 100% winning record on the filly.
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Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes The market would suggest that the Sprint Championship could be a shoot out between two European bred horses, the Italian Lancelot Du Lac and the French Colt Goken. The Dean Ivory trained, Lancelot Du Lac is currently heading the ante-post markets. He has won on his last two appearances, most recently at Chelmsford over 5 furlongs when pulling away readily from Gamgoon. The 6 year old gelding has been highly tried in the past at Group 1 level; including in Dubai at last years carnival, but has been unable to break through at the highest level. Dean Ivory has chosen an all-weather campaign this time round and he could reap the rewards if landing the near £100,000 prize on offer here. Kevin Ryan looks to have Goken primed and ready for this race after winning the Listed Golden Rose Stakes at Lingfield - a fast track qualifier for this event. The 3 year old attempts to follow in the footsteps of another young colt, Godolphin’s Pretend, who won this last year with a confident ride from William Buick. Like the previous contender, Lancelot Du Lac, Goken was mixing it with some high class horses last year, defeated by seven lengths in both the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot by Muhaarar and in the King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, won by Muthmir. Lightscamaraction is no stranger to All-Weather Finals Day having won the 3 year old sprint at this meeting 12 months ago. To qualify for this event he won the Hever Sprint Stakes and Gay Kelleway will be hoping her gelding can see out the extra furlong. He has never won over 6 furlongs, all of his winnings have been over the minimum trip. But with either Luke Morris (ban dependant) or Adam Kirby due to take the ride, write him off at your peril. Notable mentions have to go to sprint stalwarts Rivellino, Chookie Royal and Alben Star, who have all won big races in the past. Rivellino most recently beating Lightscamaraction in the Cleves Stakes at Lingfield over 6 furlongs. The Karl Burke trained 6 year old Rivellino also had Chookie Royal and Alben Star behind in the same contest but we have seen before, on a going day, what both of those 8 year olds have to offer and they could be involved at the finish.
3 Year Old Mile Championship Condition Stakes Race Day will be looking to repeat the success of last year’s winner Four Seasons for Godolphin. The Saeed Bin Surror trained colt enjoyed a good prep run for this when 4th to Haalick in the listed Spring Cup Stakes at Lingfield. He was returning from small break having not appeared since November and with that run under his belt will look to give Haalick a closer run in the final. Race Day had already qualified for this contest after
victory over a couple of re-opposing rivals in Special Season and Abe Lincoln. He was able to get out and make all that day over 7 furlongs under William Buick and similar tactics may hold the key to victory. The aforementioned Haalick, trained by Roger Varian, will be hoping to build on that victory over Race Day in the Spring Cup. Ridden by Jack Mitchell, he was able to find the gaps and ran on strongly at the finish. However, it was a messy race with a couple of rivals not getting a clear run. The Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum owned colt will still be improving, as will all of his rivals, so it will be very interesting to see if she can hold off the challengers once again. Jeremy Noseda will be hoping for a change of luck for Abe Lincoln. After winning his maiden in very impressive fashion at Kempton in September, he was slowly away on his second run when ž beaten by Race Day. Then, the 3 year old colt, endured no luck in the spring cup when no room to manoeuvre in the closing stages. Closely matched with Race Day on his best form and with more potential to come it is understandable to see some firms have him at the top of the ante-post markets for this contest. Lastly, William Haggas will be hoping to get the necessary improvement out of Special Season for him to make his mark in this event. After demolishing his maiden at Sandown in late August he made the frame in group 3 company at Newmarket in October. Beaten ½ a length by Race Day in the fast track qualifier for this at Lingfield in his first run on Polytrack, the colt was then disappointing when only 3rd in Condition Stakes race at Lingfield in January. He hung right that day 2 furlongs from the finish which cost him the race. He has not seen a track since then, but if anyone can iron out the 3 year old quirks it will be Mr Haggas.
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Mile Championship Condition Stakes
AW champs Finals winners enclosure at Lingfield Park Ryan Moore rode Grey Mirage to victory last year in an exciting finish and took home the ÂŁ95,000 first place prize money for connections. The first 9 runners were only separated by 3 lengths and it was the 9th placed horse in last years final that heads the betting this time around. The Roger Varian trained Mindurownbusiness was the youngest runner in the field that day and the now 5 year old will be hoping to take the prize this year. A winner of 50% of his races, the son of Cape Cross, has looked very impressive this all-weather season, especially last time out when he was eased down for victory over the mile at Wolverhampton in a class 2 condition stakes. Favourite and runner up in last years final Sovereign Debt will be hoping for another crack at this event. The Dandy Nicholls runner was very unfortunate 12 months ago with no luck in running and only losing by a neck. The now 7 year old son of Dark Angel has been highly tried at group 1 level and has the ability to land a big race like this one. Another son of Dark Angel hoping to improve on last years result is Captain Joy. 3rd in the race last year the Tracy Collins trained horse has qualified for this final with a comfortable victory at Dundalk in February. The grey will be heading over from Ireland with every chance and with a bit more luck this time around will look to get the better of his half brother. Contd....
Roger Charlton trained Captain Cat has also qualified for this final when winning a fast track qualifier at Kempton at the end of February. Under the ride of Jamie Spencer, the 7 year old gelding, who normally is held up, changed tactics that day and made all for victory. Connections could go for the Easter Classic but either way it will be interesting to see what tactics are used next time.
Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championships Conditions Stakes The feature of finals day, with a huge £125,000 to the winner, won last year by the AllWeather superstar - Trystar for Goldolphin. With Trystar continuing a very successful Dubai campaign, we have to start looking at this year renewal with Grandiser. A slow developer but getting better every year, Marco Botti’s 6 year old is at the top of his game at the moment, after victory in the Winter Derby at Lingfield. Adam Kirby made very smooth headway that day and ran on for victory in the final furlong. He was 3rd in the race last year when 2 lengths back to Tryser and is a worthy favourite to take the big prize home on April 25th. Godolphin are looking take the prize home again and have couple of interesting candidates in the shape of Let’s Go and Festive Fare. Out of the two, Let’s Go looks like to have the better chance on paper. The Saeed Bin Suroor 4 year old beat Grendisar in the Churchill Stakes at Lingfield in November when ridden by James Doyle. The only question mark is if the son of Street Cry will head to Dubai for the carnival or come back to ride in this event. Festive Fare, looks certain to be heading for the Easter Classic, but he has yet to get the better of Grendisar every time they have met, recently 4th place 3 ½ lengths back in the Winter Derby. The Charlie Appleby trained gelding does have age on his side and we could see significant improvement from the 4 year old soon, but he may need some luck in running to overcome Grendisar this year. Battalion for William Haggas will be hoping to be involved at the finish. Winner of the Listed Foundation Stakes at Goodwood in September, big things had been expected of the son of Authorized for this winter campaign. He finished 5th to Let’s Go in the Churchill Stakes when he was keen at the start and most recently 6th in the Quebec Stakes at Lingfield when despite hanging left was running on at the finish. The 6 year old gelding has a decent 33% winning record and on a clear run, could find the necessary improvement to be involved in this.
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Another interesting runner is the Chilean bead Furia Cruzada. Moved over to John Gosden’s yard, she had her first run in Great Britain in the Winter Derby at Lingfield. She finished in 3rd that day 2 ½ lengths back from Grandiser. The 5 year old mare was running on at the finish and should show further improvement on her second run for the yard.
3 Year Old Sprint All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes As normal the 3 year old sprint division looks a hard one to predict as many of the contenders have beaten each other, it’ll come down to which young horse is straight and doesn’t play up on the day. Gracious John, trained by David Evans, would be even shorter in the market if it wasn’t for his latest appearance. The very impressive, 3 year old colt, had won 4 out of his 7 starts when finishing 3rd to Kadrizzi at Chelmsford at the start of February when the race did not go to plan. Bumped at the start, the son of Baltic King, then hung badly right and was very keen which cost him the race. If his jockey, John Egan, can get him out and leading without any trouble he could be very hard to catch. Dean Ivory will be hoping to land the £90,000 prize with Kadrizzi. The 3 year old gelding has been in good form over the winter all-weather campaign winning twice and finishing runner up on three occasions. Most recently a neck second to Wolowitz at Chelmsford at the start of March, he was a little slow out of the stalls that day and Robert Winston will be hoping to trap better in the final. The aforementioned Wolowitz, with only 5 runs to his name, looks to be one of the most inexperienced runners in the field. But he is unbeaten in his last three and has improved with every run. With official BHA ratings having him a little way behind Gracious John Wolowitz has a rating of 97, Gracious John 109 - trainer David Baron, will be hoping to eek out further improvement from the son of Intense Focus to challenge David Evan’s runner. Last years winner, Lightscamaraction, had only one previous win to his name before landing this prize and Field of Vision has a similar profile in that sense and could be good value on the day. The John Tuite trained, Colt, is a serial runner up finishing in 2nd place in over half of his races and has finished behind Gracious John, Kadrizzi and Wolowitz so far this season. With the handicapper due to drop him a couple of pounds he could spring a surprise victory.
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Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes Moonrise Landing for Ralph Becket looks like the one to beat in the marathon finale. The 4 year old has had a short but very impressive winter campaign wining all three of his runs on the all weather. On his last appearance in the fast track qualifier at Wolverhampton, the son of Dalakhani, beat the Godolphin pair Anglophile and Famous kid in taking fashion. A repeat of that form should see him go close in taking the large prize. Charlie Appleby’s Anglophile was sent off favourite for this race last year but finished second to Mymatechris. The 5 year old gelding held every chance but was unable to run down the winner and lost by only a neck. A repeat of that performance could see him feature at the finish again but the question is can he reverse the form with Moonrise Landing? Notarised for Mark Johnston qualified for this event with victory in the 2 mile Fast Track Qualifier at Chelmsford. The 5 year old, son of Authorized, stayed on strongly that day under Joe Fanning. That was just his second run on the all-weather surface and could be interesting dropping in trip for the final. Richard Hughes’s runner Barye had looked very good this campaign around Lingfield, winning twice in quick succession over 1 mile 4 furlongs. He was then upped in trip to take on Notarised at Chelmsford over 2 miles and couldn’t cope with the extra distance and was eased 2 furlongs out. Back at his favourite venue over a more suitable distance the 5 year old gelding is an interesting contender.
Dubai World Cup Preview By Laura King @LauraKingDXB With nine races, six of them Group Is, the World Cup is the biggest single day of international racing on the calendar, and the 2016 running, which takes place at Meydan on March 26th, looks well up to standard. The feature race is the $10million Dubai World Cup itself, run over a mile and two furlongs on dirt. American-based horses have won nine of the 20 runnings so far, and their team looks as strong as ever this year. It’s headed by 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome, who finished second to shock winner Prince Bishop in the race last year. Connections are keen to right that wrong, and the Art Sherman-trained five-year-old had a prep race in Dubai this time, conceding weight to a bunch of inferior rivals in a handicap over the World Cup course and distance. Page 45
Since then, assistant trainer Alan Sherman has reported he is “training like a beast” and he should be spot on for the big night. Up against him, though, is the Godolphin-owned Frosted, who has been secluded away at their desert base since arriving here in late January. He too prepped at Meydan, and was hugely impressive in winning a Group 2 over 100 metres shorter than the World Cup trip. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who won the race with Invasor in 2007, he will take plenty of catching here. Others to join in the fray from the States are Hoppertunity and Grade I Donn Handicap winner Mshawish, but both should not be quite good enough to trouble the big two, who have it between them on form. Don’t ignore Mubtaahij though; trainer Mike De Kock has aimed him at this all year and his effort in the main prep last time out was better than it appears on paper. McLaughlin also has a strong hand in the Group 2 Godolphin Mile, on dirt, and his Group 3 Firebreak Stakes winner Confrontation looks the one to beat. Effortless on that Meydan debut, he has some strong locally-trained horses, including the Doug Watson-trained Cool Cowboy, Faulkner and One Man Band, up against him, but might well be too good. At a bigger price, Maftool is worth a close look, as he’ll get the strong gallop he needs. XY Jet, who has won his last five races in the States, is favourite for the Group I Golden Shaheen, over six furlongs on dirt, but it again might be worth siding with McLaughlin here. His Marking overcame raw inexperience to win a handicap last time, and won’t make things easy for jockey William Buick again. However, he has a huge amount of ability, and will be closing late off a strong pace. The three turf Group Is are always good quality affairs and the Dubai Turf, over nine furlongs, looks a fascinating clash between Solow and Tryster. The Freddy Head trained Solow was imperious in this last year, and is on a ten-race winning streak, which includes five Group Is. In short, he should be too good for Tryster, who claimed his first top level success in the Jebel Hatta, over the Dubai Turf course and distance last time. However, Solow often hits a flat spot in his races, which Tryster’s turn of foot could well exploit. The Sheema Classic, over a mile and half, looks between Roger Varian’s Postponed and the Japanese raider Duramente, with preference for the former, who coasted home in the main local trial last time. Meanwhile the turf sprint, the five furlong Al Quoz, can stay in Dubai, with the exciting Ertijaal fancied to beat a host of international raiders, including last year’s winner Sole Power. The card’s only three-year-old race can go to the unbeaten Watson trainee Polar River, although Vale Dori, not far behind her last time, is far better value and will have improved immeasurably for her first start here. There’s quality and depth right the way through the card, with even the opening Arabian contest worthy of its $1million purse. Gut feeling, though, is that this will be a day for the Americans, even if those particular US equines are owned by the Ruler of Dubai.