Grand National Festival By Grant Copson @thefinalflight1 The Aintree Grand National itself is an iconic race in the National Hunt calendar. However, the meeting on the whole is often an afterthought and with the Cheltenham Festival only three weeks prior to the fixture this year that is likely to be the case once more. In this article I have highlighted a selection of horses who have notably skipped the festival or who will be better suited to Aintree. In my opinion, there is every chance that some horses will reverse the placings with their Cheltenham conquerors granted more favourable conditions. I have given the selected a Gold, Silver or Bronze rating based on the strength of the selection. Grant Copson, Author of ‘The Final Flight Jumps Guide’.
HANDICAP HURDLE (GRADE 3) (2m4f) MA DU FOU (6-y-o) Le Fou (IRE) - Belle Du Ma (FR) (Zamindar (USA) This Warren Greatrex-trained gelding has made a good impression this season, completing the hattrick in a Listed event at Huntingdon in February. Almost immediately after his latest victory Greatrex made it clear that Cheltenham was unlikely to be on his agenda this season and after speaking to him since, he stated that a handicap hurdle at Aintree was very much his spring target. He shed his maiden tag over timber at Ffos Las back in November when scoring by a cosy six lengths on extremely testing ground. That form couldn’t have worked out better with the runnerup subsequently landing the ultracompetitive Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and based on his achievements this season, Ma Du Fou looks nicely treated off a mark of 139. With novice chasing firmly on his radar next term, this race is an ideal opportunity for him to gain valuable experience in a higher grade. I advise that you consider this 6-year-old as a lively contender for this contest but also he is one for the long-term notebook as a horse with scope to progress again during the 2016/2017 campaign. SELECTION RATING: SILVER ANTE POST PRICE: n/a MILDMAY NOVICES' CHASE (GRADE 1) (3m1f) VYTA DU ROC (7-y-o) Lion Noir - Dolce Vyta (FR) (Grand Tresor (FR)) Since filling the runner-up spot behind subsequent 2016 World Hurdle winner Thistlecrack in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s meeting, Vyta Du Roc has progressed into a useful novice chaser for his connections this season winning two out of four starts to date. Although I was slightly disappointed with his performance in the Grade 1 RSA Novices’ Chase last month, he was only beaten 10 ½ lengths in the end and his overall profile suggests that he is up to winning at the highest level over fences. This gorgeous grey is a thorough stayer and based on his action, one wouldn’t be too surprised if he proves to be better suited to softer ground than he is likely to face here. However, at this stage I am of the opinion that he is not ground dependant as he showed that he handles good ground when running an excellent race to finish fourth in last season’s Grade 1 Neptune Novices’ Hurdle – a race in which he would arguably have been a clear second but for a bad mistake at the last. I have him down as a classy stayer rather than one who is likely to slog out a gruelling finish and for that reason, I think the Mildmay Novices’ Chase will suit him perfectly. SELECTION RATING: SILVER ANTE POST PRICE: 5/1 (BETFAIR)
SEFTON NOVICES' HURDLE (GRADE 1) (3m½f) O O SEVEN (6-y-o) Flemensfirth (USA) - Kestral Heights (IRE) (Eagle Eyed (USA)) Nicky Henderson saddled the runner-up Vyta Du Roc in this race last year and I expect that he is likely to be represented this time around by the consistent O O Seven. After showing plenty of promise in bumpers, this son of Flemensfirth made a successful switch to the hurdling ranks with back-to-back victories at Huntingdon and Sandown before bumping into Yorkhill in the Grade 1 Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle. He then took a significant step-up in trip to contest the Albert Bartlett Scottish Trial at Musselburgh over three miles, landing a decisive success over Gordon Elliott’s Fagan. At the time it was easy to question whether that was a strong piece of form but with the runner-up giving it a significant boost with an excellent second in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at last month’s Cheltenham Festival, it is fair to say that that was a decent staying novices’ hurdle. Henderson decided that the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle was the most suitable race for O O Seven at Cheltenham (as he did with Vyta Du Roc 12 months earlier) but after only managing a well-beaten eighth, I predict that a return to three miles is on the cards. Although most of his form is on softer ground than can be expected at Aintree, I have no concerns that he will handle the quicker conditions over this longer trip and he is capable of announcing himself as a leading staying novice hurdler in what I deem a division lacking a real star. SELECTION RATING: GOLD ANTE POST PRICE: 12/1 MERSEY NOVICES' HURDLE (GRADE 1) (2m4f) BELLSHILL (6-y-o) King´s Theatre (IRE) - Fairy Native (IRE) (Be My Native (USA)) After running no sort of race in last season’s Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, Bellshill progressed into one of Ireland’s leading bumper horses, getting to within two lengths of Barters Hill in the Grade 2 at Aintree before landing the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at Punchestown. He made a smooth transition to hurdles winning his first three starts before failing to deliver in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown where his jumping was particularly poor. He failed to fire in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham with the speedier test exposing his jumping technique once more and there is no doubt that many will struggle to forgive him back-to-back disappointments. However, based on the fact that I feel he had an off day at Leopardstown and that Cheltenham clearly doesn’t suit him (his form figures read 00), I still have faith that he can dine at the top table and prove himself as a genuine Grade 1 hurdler. A return to this intermediate trip will definitely see him in a better light as his jumping will be less pressurised and he has the ability to cause an upset. Clearly the likes of Yorkhill, Yanworth and Buveur D’Air will deserve plenty of respect if lining up here but Bellshill remains a horse with a very bright future and it is far too early to right him off at the highest level. SELECTION RATING: BRONZE ANTE POST PRICE: 25/1 (BETFAIR) MAGHULL NOVICES' CHASE (GRADE 1) (2m) ALISIER D’IRLANDE (6-y-o) Kapgarde (FR) - Isati´S (FR) (Chamberlin (FR)) This well-related gelding cost £300,000 as a 4-year-old at Cheltenham’s Brightwell sales in April 2014 and although he failed to win on his two starts for Philip Hobbs, he showed plenty of promise on his rules debut at Ascot. He was switched to Henry De Bromhead’s training operation in the spring of last year and he bolted up on debut, landing a Thurles maiden hurdle by a wide margin. Being a point-topoint winner, there was no surprise that his connections were keen to get on with his chasing career and after a fall on his chasing debut when still in contention, he shed his maiden tag at Naas in February in fine style. He travelled powerfully that day and although he was jumping slightly left throughout, he was electric at his obstacles. He confirmed his promise with an all-the-way victory at
Leopardstown later that month and his comfortable 9 length success set him up nicely for a tilt at this Grade 1 contest. I am certain that the speed test of the Maghull Novices’ Chase will to play to this progressive 6-yearolds strengths and as he demonstrated at Leopardstown, his jumping technique is improving with every run. I was particularly impressed with the way he corrected himself when getting in too tight at one of his fences and intelligence is a must have attribute when competing at the highest level over two miles. The two mile novice chase division clearly has a star in the form of Douvan and if he turned up here he would be impossible to oppose. However, if Douvan were to swerve Aintree in favour of Punchestown, Alisier D’Irlande can take the rise in class in his stride and confirm the early hype that surrounded him. Vaniteux fell when running a good race in the Grade 1 Racing Post Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival last month and assuming that he is none the worse, he will be the hot favourite to make amends here. However that simply enhances the starting price of De Bromhead’s trailblazer and with his enthusiastic running style likely to put his rivals in trouble from an early stage, he rates as a solid alternative. SELECTION RATING: SILVER ANTE POST PRICE: 8/1 (SKYBET)
Grand National Preview By Ian Dykes @wayward_lad
Saint Are last years Runner Up by @mjyharris This weekend brings us the Aintree Festival which opens on Thursday with 4 consecutive Grade 1 races, including the Betfred Bowl Chase which (hopefully) should see Cue Card gain recompense for his fall in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Fridaybrings us another 4 Grade 1 races, including the Betfred Mildmay Novices Chase in which Blaklion will hope to confirm he is the best staying novice chaser of this season. It also includes the Crabbie's Topham Chase (handicap) over the National fences, and a brief look over the runners entered suggests that this will be no easy matter in finding the winner.
The onto Saturday, with the feature race being the Crabbie's Grand National as well as a supporting cast of 3 more Grade 1 races, and the Listed Betfred Handicap Chase over 3m1f which has a high-class entry of top chasers. Today, I'm taking a look over the Grand National runners trying to find a bit of value and hopefully - the winner. I've done it before (Ballabriggs in 2011 - and not one tipster in the Racing Post even included the horse in their shortlists!) and I've had a few placed selections in the years since then. Way back in 2009, I tipped 100/1 winner Mon Mome on the Tuesday before the race on the Betfair forum and then wrote what some considered the "post of the century" when tipping Mon Mome at12:17pm on the day of the race. I myself won over ÂŁ1500 on that race for a stake of only ÂŁ12 (Mon Mome was at 170 on the Betfair exchange). First up, can Many Clouds repeat last years win? With similar ground conditions to last year (good-to-soft) and only an extra 1lb to carry in weight, there's no reason why he couldn't. He's shown himself to be as good as he was last season, so I expect he will run at around 158-160 (my ratings) should he complete the course. And that is the risk element will he complete the course? Last year, 19 of the 39 starters completed so, as Many Clouds has never fallen and will stay every yard, then he should complete the course. In 2012, Paul Nicholls sent Neptune Collonges to win the race, and this year he sends a better horse in Silviniaco Conti to try and repeat that win. "Conti" loves Aintree, as he's won the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl twice, and he's shown he's as good as ever this season. He's not quite at home around Cheltenham but, like Kempton, this flat Aintree track brings out the best in him. Receiving 2lb from Many Clouds, should they both finish I'd expect "Conti" to be about 5-lengths in front. There are some horses that don't have much chance of winning, and First Lieutenant is one of them. Another is Wonderful Charm who is still suffering (rated OR158) for a successful novice chase season in 2013-14. Winners of the Grand National are proven stayers, having a win at 3-mile on the record, and Ballynagour has not won beyond 2m5f; and the same goes for Gilgamboa. O'Faolains Boy beat Many Clouds over 3-miles as a novice chaser when in-receipt of 4lb, and he's shown this season he still has plenty of ability being a lot better than his OR151 rating. He couldn't keep up the pace in the Gold Cup when he made a brave effort, but he's on my shortlist being a class horse running off a fair weight, and he should be a lot shorter odds than 33/1. The 12yo On His Own isn't the horse he once was, but The Druid's Nephew is possibly at his peak. He was leading and going like a potential winner when crumpling on landing in this race last year, but that was off OR146 and this year he's on OR155, and I don't think he's up to winning off that mark. The 2013 Hennessy Gold Cup winner Triolo D'Alene hasn't done much racing since then, but he did run in the 2014 National and he pulled-up. That isn't good on the CV, and I think he'll struggle again; as I think Rocky Creek will. H's best effort in this race was 5th in 2014, and he was well beaten last year. Sir Des Champs is best on soft ground, and is another who's best days are behind him.
Holywell went into a lot of notebooks for this race when running a cracker to be 2nd in the handicap chase on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival. He also beat a highclass novice field here in 2014 over 3m1f on the Mildmay course, with non-other than Don Cossack, Many Clouds and O'Faolains Boy behind him that day on level weights. A repeat of that form will see him win this race easily and, running off OR153 and carrying just 10st 12lb, he has been given every chance. Odds of 16/1 are still available, and I can see him starting the 2nd-fav at under 10/1. His stablemate Shutthefrontdoor, didn't look like he stayed the trip when fading to 5th last year, and I cannot see him winning. David Pipe's Soll was also well beaten and, though there was an excuse, he looks up against it on OR152. Next, when have the enigma that is Buywise; can he win for the first time since April 2014 over fences? I can't see it myself and, at 50/1, neither can the bookies. Boston Bob is the intended mount of Ruby Walsh, and he's been thought of as a National horse since winning here in 2014 over 2m4f, but a win in the Puchestown Gold Cup NTO meant he was aimed at the Cheltenham Gold Cup instead (which he missed). This year, this race has been the target all season, and his win in the Bobbyjo Chase LTO will mean he's in peak form. He's better than OR151 on his day and 25/1 currently available is generous for a jockey/trainer combination looking to crown an already mighty season. The 12yo Aachen is not on my radar, and Morning Assembly - following his great run LTO at Cheltenham - would be but (as I wrote in my assessment of that race) he emptied out quickly in that race and he may find the extra mile here too much for him. It's most unlikely that Double Ross will have the stamina for this race, and while Scottish National 2nd and Midlands National winner Goonyella will have the stamina, he didn't run like he enjoyed Aintree's National course when here in December. You can never underestimate a Gordon Elliot runner, but I think I will pass over Uncello Conti. Another Nicholls runner is Unioniste who fell at the 5th fence in this race last year when running of OR157. He runs off OR149 this time and, on past form, he has a chance if he's in the mood - and that's the key to this horse, his mood on the day. He could run a cracker and win, or refuse to jump the 3rd fence. However, his best form is on soft/heavy ground. Le Reve is very consistent and will almost certainly run to his rating of OR149, but no better. He is the sort of horse who is good for a place-only wager as he may sneak into 5th. The Irish-trained Gallant Oscar is one of the likely gambles in the race, as his win last May in the Pat Taaffe handicap earmarked his National potential. Unfortunately, he's not well handicapped with The Druid's Nephew (they met at Cheltenham last year), and much will depend on whether his trainer has brought him here at his peak. The 7yo Onenightinvienna is too young for a race as competitive as this, as is the 7yo Vieux Lion Rouge. LTO The Last Samuri had everything in his favour (ground and trip) and the race fell into his lap. That will be unlikely to happen in this race and although that win means he comes into this race apparently 12lb well-in (he now has a rating of OR161, yet races in this off OR149) my opinion is that he was well flattered by that result LTO, especially when you look at the form of his win prior to that in December.
The race Kruzhlinin ran at Cheltenham LTO suggests he wont be good enough to win this, or even stay the trip. Rule The World has yet to win a chase. Just A Par won the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last April and comes alive at this time of year, running his best race since that win LTO at Exeter last month. At 50/1, Just A Par is a lively outsider, and on the shortlist. Both Katenko and Vics Canvas have no chance. Black Thunder is another class horse on his day, who has lost his way, and it's asking a lot to expect him to recapture his form in this race. Ballycasey is another who has never won beyond 2m5f, Hadrian's Approach also won the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, bit in 2014. Very lightly race since, his seasonal debut in February could have brought him back to peak fitness for this and Nicky Henderson will leave no stone unturned. He's another lively outsider at 50/1 as he's much better than OR147 on his day. Pendra was my handicap snip of the season, and he did the business winning his seasonal debut over 3-mile at Ascot. However, much as I like the horse, he's not a 3-mile chaser, as was proved when he tried to repeat that win in December. If he stays well enough to be placed in the 1st-4, I will send £50 to the Injured Jockeys Fund. However, Saint Are looked an unlucky loser last year, and looks an even better horse with his win LTO at Doncaster. Running off OR146, just 3lb higher than last year, he has a tremendous chance of winning, and odds of 16/1 look very reasonable. Home Farm is another with next to no chance, while The Romford Pele could be returning to form and - if he is - would have a good chance at his best. To see Ian's shortlist for this years Grand National visit his blog here http://waywardlad.blogspot.co.uk
The Grand National By Andy Richardson @topspeedfigures So it’s that time of year again where the National Hunt season is starting to wind down that even the most recreational of punter takes aim at the Grand National in the hope of landing a big priced winner. Aintree is my local course, my first experience of going racing was watching Numbersixvalverde win the National ten years ago and is the reason I fell in love with the sport and I’ve never looked back. Firstly, we must look at ground conditions, the weather so far this week has been a mixed bunch with some very nice spells mixed with some rain. The forecast is for more rain to arrive and it would be no shock to have a soft ground National, I think the best ground we can expect is good to soft, soft in places. This goes against one of my early season National fancies in Holywell. Holywell might not seem a typical National ‘type’ but if we look back through his recent form over fences I feel he will relish the step up in trip. In the Gold Cup last season when he was a valiant fourth he was pushed along relatively early on in the race indicating that the pace might’ve been on the quick side for him, we can also see a similar situation when looking back at Holywell’s run in the Aintree Bowl last season when third to
flat track specialist Silviniaco Conti where he was again off the brilde before expected. At a best priced 16/1 at the time of writing I believe Holywell is a great each way prospect and the better the ground the better the chances he will have. Last season’s runner up Saint Are also looks a great price at 16/1. It’s difficult to understand the big difference in price between Saint Are and Many Clouds who is currently the 7/1 fav when Saint Are only fell short by less than two lengths in last season’s renewal. Saint Are is an Aintree specialist having finished seventh and third in the last two Becher Chases; add to that the heroic second last season and a ninth finish behind Auroras Encore in two Grand Nationals and it’s very easy to back him at odds of 16/1. Jim Dreaper’s Goonyella looks like a great bet at 22/1 for the National and the weather forecast should also be seen as a positive. The softer the ground gets the more of a slog the race will become and that is sure to suit this out and out stayer. With a Midlands National already on his cv, Goonyella is just the sort you’d want on your side in the Grand National and with a bit of luck in running I’m sure he’ll give Johnny Burke a great spin and be bang there come the business end of the race. My final fancy for this season’s National comes in the form of Shutthefrontdoor. This horse was strong favourite last season in no small part down to the fact that he was AP McCoy’s final mount in the national. The market overreacted to this and Shutthefrontdoor was too short last season, however he is the ideal type for a National and his eventual fifth place finish was a very good run. A previous Irish National winner and a sixth place finisher in the four miler at the Cheltenham Festival; this horse will relish the stamina trip and I believe just as the market overreacted to McCoy riding Shutthefrontdoor last season it’s overreacted to the disappointment of him ‘only’ finishing fifth.
#BillysBigOnes By Billy Blakeman @five2tenracing #BillysBigOnes Bailey’s not Joking with The Last Samurai During Cheltenham week, I try as much as possible not to sleep until the Friday night. Apart from auditory hallucinations and mild paranoia, I suffered no ill-effects and made payment on the Saturday morning with an extra couple of hours in bed. As I watched The Morning Line an hour behind, listening to Geoff Banks discuss the losses made by the bookmaking industry reminded me of the wife’s record losses on the week. I briefly pondered if we hadn’t got the money, and the bookies hadn’t got the money, who had got it? After expanding my breakfast options with a hot cross bun with bacon filling (saw it on a Ch4 ad-break), I was tackling the Midlands National at Uttoxeter. I can say with honesty that I studied the race and those around it with the same resolve as with the Supreme Novices’, which now seemed so long ago. There is little time to dwell. The Plumpton double-header over Easter is the next major event in my punting calendar and The Lincoln approaches. As someone who prefers the flat offering, I am almost too excited to consider the ante-post list for that just at the
moment. By way of calming myself down, I took a Sunday afternoon stroll down the top 40 entries in the Grand National and scribbled notes on all. Half a dozen made my shortlist and I was going to reveal those at the foot of a rambling 40-horse preview. Then I pondered how many folk actually get to the end of my articles against how many start (!) so let’s cut to the chase as it were with the #BillysBigOnes top 6! 1) THE LAST SAMURAI Trainer Kim Bailey seems a likeable fellow with a pretty good website. I visited said site looking for positive quotes about what was to become my selection. Although I didn’t really find what I was looking for, the joke about the two old men and the blow-up dolls tickled the now-recovering wife and I. Kim Bailey wasn’t always best known for his retrospective weather bulletins and politically incorrect jokes. No, time was he was training the likes of Alderbrook, Master Oats and Grand National clock holder, Mr Frisk. To get myself in the mood, I watched a re-run of the latter’s GN success and I still thought Durham Edition was going to catch him anytime from the second last! Anyone involved in racing has to sign up to the ups and downs and Donald McCain had to say goodbye to 50-horses in the ownership of Paul and Clare Rooney early this year. Amongst them was The Last Samurai who was moved to Kim Bailey. Many will agree that this 8-y-o has a real smart chance of bringing his new trainer another significant win and there is one of many possible Aintree stories. Since the switch, the horse has made let’s say either natural progression or giant strides. A win at Kempton was followed by a 10-length defeat of The Druids Nephew up at Doncaster and his bold, clean jumping was evident in both races. Rated 161 now but gets in here off significantly lower and it is hard to find any negatives. 2) THE DRUIDS NEPHEW Linking to the next horse, The Druids Nephew is a likeable chaser with a very positive profile for a race like this. As short as 10/1 in the betting last year, Neil Mulholland’s charge was jumping well and leading the field with six to jump. The dream came to an end shortly afterwards but the horse looked to be enjoying himself and another crack this year looks a sound plan. The handicapper has put him up a few pounds which is fair enough and he looks to have a good preparation; albeit as already mentioned he was beaten 10- lengths by The Last Samurai at Doncaster last time. 3) UNIONISTE Paul Nicholls tasted National success with Neptune Collonges in 2012 and the Ditcheat entrants number 6 this time around. The best of them might turn out to be Unioniste. I was on board the horse (metaphorically) last year when he was an experienced 7-y-o. A fall as early as the fifth dislodged my bet and I comfort myself with the fact that we will never know what might have been. This season, he has been a little busier than I would have thought if he is to have a real crack at this but he is still only an 8-y-o and his form has at least been encouraging in the main. A prep-run at Kelso saw him behind the defending champion but trial form should never be read literally. Nick Schofield is likely to take the ride and there look to be worse 33/1 chances declared. 4) GOONYELLA Back a horse with stamina. Now there’s a good idea! Goonyella travelled over from Ireland a year or so ago to run away with The Midlands National at Uttoxeter. That he was able to run so close just 5-weeks later in The Scottish National is a notable achievement by both horse and his trainer, Jim Dreaper. This season the 9-y-o has had a nice campaign with two hurdles and as many chases. Some have questioned whether he
enjoyed these fences in the Becher and I suppose in handicapping terms he is high enough. More importantly he has a lovely racing weight and he undoubtedly has one of the best chances for Ireland. 5) BUYWISE Remember the days when you needed a 2 ½ miler for the National? Well, I think I do but maybe it was just a myth. Either way, Buywise is not without hope despite a massive question mark stamina wise. How much a metal plate in his leg contributes to the odd round of iffy jumping is unclear and these fences are not wonderfully forgiving. Add to that, his style of running on just a bit too late off a quiet ride isn’t an obvious positive here either so my argument is looking weak. Evan Williams trains though and Evan may be on course to one day hold the record for sending out the most placed horses in this famous race. I fancy that if you are looking for something at life-changing odds, you could do worse than this 9-y-o. 6) BOSTON BOB Willie Mullins merges into the crowd a little better at Aintree than he does at Cheltenham and his Boston Bob wouldn’t be without a chance. A multiple Grade 1 winner with a great win record, Boston Bob has the necessary resolve and whilst he was all-out to beat stablemate On His Own last time, he has not had a busy season. Yet to win here but has bagged one over the Mildmay course and won’t mind if the ground conditions are on the good side.
Wheat from the Chaff By Gordon Millard @WeighedInRacing
Where to start when trying to fathom the spectacle that is the Aintree Grand National. Well i'd have to say first and foremost put out of your head the idea of tackling this race in order to beat a bookie or to land a few quid. Should this happen then view it as a sweet little bonus. Instead try setting about this race as a little challenge to yourself and a bit of a test of your wit's and treat it as a puzzle that needs solving. A lot of talk when I view articles relating to this unique marathon race are of trends from a time gone by, but in an era where the race has become a much safer proposition for owners and trainers to send their true superstar's I have to ask how much can we rely on the trends that have been set in an age that no longer exists? In order for me to progress then I have to answer this question, but first what are the trends and how important in today's era are they?
TRENDS Horses aged 9 – 12 Age would still be of interest to me but i'd probably tweak the above trend and look toward horses aged 8 – 11 . Reason being is that racing has evolved and horses are quicker at an earlier age. Also the race has been made quicker with all of the changes over the years so the emphasis is no longer focused simply on stamina but a horse needs to be able to get round in quick time. Horses rated 135+ This has become null and void as we are in a new era where horses rated 135 will not be making it to this race for much longer. Take this year for example the 4 th reserve Maggio is rated 143 and looks unlikely to even line up. A sign of how fast things are changing is this race was won not long back by Pineau de re (143) a horse that would not have made the line up against this years opposition. Horses carrying less than 11 – 6 This for me is another trend that you will see buckle over the coming years as we have much higher rated horses competing dont have to look far for a horse to back up the 3 trends discussed so far here, step forward Many Clouds rated 160 , carrying 11 – 9 aged just 8 years old. So of all the trends the 3 discussed so far would look the most vulnerable and all this said I would not be so keen to write off the next 3 trends.
Horses won over 3M+ This for me is an important factor when even whittling down to a shortlist. Even with my previous talk of speed and quicker races stamina is still very much of utmost importance. If it has'nt won at 3 mile or more it don't carry my 50p ew !!!! Run in 10 chases or more A trend that is vitally important but with trainers being a lot more savvy and having much better facilities at their disposal I would not be surprised to see this changing too over the coming years and therefore I discount nothing that has had 8 or more chase starts. Horses who have won a race of £13k + And last but by no means least this one spells out that regardless of all other things looked at a horse needs to have a huge amount of class to win a Grand National. The one thing I would question however in the era we are in is £13k, You could probably get that on a Friday night at Wolverhampton nowadays so I would be looking for something that has won a race of at least double this amount.
So thats the trends take care of next we have to say a short word on Target Horses. Whilst im in no doubt that trainers and owners will target this race with certain types and will prep horses with a certain build up to the race, i'm not so certain that it is entirely effective any more. There has always been a theory that if a horse has been trained for the Cheltenham Festival then the National is an afterthought. And i'll be the first to admit this has been a factor in my choices in the past. Now however I think we are looking at a completely different ball game. The training and facilities available make it possible for horses to recover a lot quicker than in previous years so it is therefore now a possibility to have both festivals well and truly in a horses sights. And whilst I wouldn’t rubbish target horses completely I would argue the case that this method is going to become far less effective in the years to come.
Another point to note in a race of this magnitude is that Trainer/Jockey combo's are not all they are cracked up to be. A P McCoy the most successful Jumps Jockey of all time landed this race once and his biggest rival of this era R Johnson is still to win one.
Onto the nag's First lets take a look at those from last year who line up once more and wether their chances are still rated as good or not. Many Clouds – Up 6lb from last years victory but aged only 9 at this years renewal I would not rule out improvement and a back to back victory in this.
Saint Are – Up just 3lb for finishing 2nd last year see's him re-oppose on better terms, i'm not sure this would be enough to reverse the form but I am certain with a clear round he goes very close once more. Shutthefrontdoor – 5th last year and runs off 1lb lower this time around. Another that is open to improvement. Last years race was only this horses 7 th atempt over fences which saw him as somewhat of a novice last time round, much more to come this year i'd say.
Shutthefrontdoor by @mjyharris Soll – 9th off a mark of 139 last year and goes off 152 this year i'd be very surprised to see this one in the places. First Lieutenant – A less than impressive 16th off 154 last year and 5lb higher in 2016 pretty much puts a line through this one. Other 2 of significance from last year are the 2 fallers in The Druids Nephew / Unioniste
So other than the aforementioned what remains of interest Silviniaco Conti – A horse evidently not suited by Cheltenham so his 7th in the Gold Cup in 2015 behind Many Clouds and Holywell can possibly be ignored. He is much better around Aintree as he showed when reversing the form with Holywell the following month. Holywell does go into this 10lb better off than that day and for me is the pick of these 3. Goonyella – A horse that clearly ticks a lot of the right boxes with stamina, class and ability in abundance but there is the niggling doubt that his previous 2 attempts over these fences have been very lack lustre. The Druids Nephew – Already looks to have the bating of a few of his rivals, one of them being Gallant Oscar. He even meets on much better terms this time around so a reversal looks highly unlikely. Was going ok when coming to grief last year but would it have beaten the eventual winner? Not a gamble i'd be willing to take when he comes here having risen in the weights more than the winner and 2nd from last year.
Sir Des Champs – Could be the dark horse in this years race with Ruby Walsh being heard as saying he prefers this to Mullins other runners. Finished 2 nd in the 2013 Gold Cup and not been seen on these shores since. An interesting outsider. Unioniste – No match for Many Clouds at Kelso last time out but is better off by no less than 14lb . Failed to get round last year when an early faller not without the credentials but not a reliable sort. The Last Samurai – Comfortably beat The Druids Nephew last time out and comes into this just 2lb worse off for that which for me puts himwell and truly in the running for this. A progressive horse that will with luck on his side go close only doubt is he may need one more year.
Just A Par – Not a classic selection by any means but definitely a lively outsider. Has ability and if on his game will get the trip. On e to note at a huge price. Bishops Road – Again last but by no means least, only 1st reserve so not certain to run but if it does it certainly has the right stuff and is from a yard that loves these marathon races Kerry Lee's Yard
Summary Now obviously it would be insane to rule out Many Clouds 8/1 and Saint Are 16/1 and yes both should go close again. 8/1 In a race of this magnitude however is not for me. I'd love to see him win back to back nationals just for the sport and that in itself would be enough to discount any losses from my gambles. Saint Are however still looks one to keep on side with and is worthy of a small EW interest. Shutthefrontdoor 20/1 is excellent EW value and will definitely carry a little of my money and I would not rule out this boy coming home in front. Holywell 16/1 Another of great interest for me and was my Gold Cup EW fancy for 2015 in good order and the 2nd to carry my money EW The Last Samurai 10/1 A little shorter than i'd liked to have seen him and for that reason I will go with just a small WIN only bet. Now most importantly lets hope all of those brave horsemen and their beasts make it back in one piece. Thanks for reading and happy hunting Good luck and all the very best Gordon Millard x