Gridlock and the ‘cliff’
Poll question:
likely will be the least productive in history as measured by the number of bills passed. The struggling economy also has piled on the deficit, something that has strained congressional relations for decades.
GOP offers a deal to raise taxes on the wealthy to defer larger deficit talks to 2013, when a debt-limit vote is likely to come up
Obama responds, “I’m not going to play that game”
Republicans say Democrats have failed to offer specifics on cuts to entitlement programs such as Medicare and Medicaid
Nov. 13
Congress returns to Capitol Hill for lame-duck session
Democrats say Republicans should be the ones to propose the cuts since they are the ones insisting on them
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) details a GOP counteroffer that the party would be open to “new revenue” along with an increase to the Medicare eligibility age
Boehner says “the president has adopted a deliberate strategy to slow-walk our economy right to the edge of the fiscal cliff”
Dec. 9
Nov. 10
Nov. 7
Boehner offers a proposal in a letter to Obama; it includes caps on tax deductions for the wealthy that could bring in $800 billion, as well as $1.4 trillion in spending cuts to Medicare, Social Security and other programs
Nov. 26
Week of Nov. 25
Number of Republicans break with anti-tax activist Grover Norquist and state publicly that they’ll accept raising some taxes
Dec. 1
Boehner says he was “flabbergasted” by an earlier deal offered by the White House
Obama discusses the deficit in his weekly address: “I’m open to compromise and new ideas; but I refuse to accept any approach that isn’t balanced”
Dec. 7
Battle moves to Sunday talk shows with Geithner saying: “There’s not going to be an agreement without rates heading up”
No opinion 6
Neither 2
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner meets with Hill leaders to present a White House plan: $1.6 trillion in new revenues over a decade — largely from higher taxes on the wealthy — plus future spending cuts; proposal mirrors earlier White House offers including new stimulus spending, aid to help homeowners refinance mortgages and extended unemployment benefits
Dec. 5
Republicans accuse Obama of campaigning rather than negotiating
Nov. 29
Obama asks Americans to use Twitter, email and Facebook to pressure Congress to act
House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) announces Republican willingness to consider new revenue, but holds the line on raising tax rates
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) promises a swift resolution: “This is not something we’re going to wait until the last day of December to get done; we have a plan”
Boehner proposes a two-step process: Avert going off the cliff by agreeing to a deficit-reduction framework with binding “targets” to be worked out in more detail by the new Congress in 2013
12
53%
Nov. 29-Dec. 2 telephone poll of 1,003 adults; margin of error: +/- 3.5 percentage points
Obama says in his victory speech, “I am looking forward to reaching out and working with leaders of both parties to meet the challenges we can only solve together: reducing our deficit, reforming our tax code”
Dec. 3
Nov. 6 Nov. 16 Nov. 28 Dec. 2
Obama meets with House and Senate leaders at the White House
Both equally
Congressional Republicans
How we got here — the back and forth President Barack Obama re-elected; GOP maintains control of the House, Democrats the Senate
27
Who will get the blame if a deal is not reached?
With deadline looming, wrangling over a deal reaches fever pitch As Democrats and Republicans haggle over reaching a deal to avoid the “fiscal cliff” by the Dec. 31 deadline, the divisive politics and economic consequences seem at once familiar and new. While Washington is no stranger to budget battles, the 112th Congress
President Barack Obama
Obama and Boehner meet face-to-face for the first time since November 16
Forty years of fiscal fights — and how they tracked with the economy 1971
Gold/dollar conversion
1974
•What it was President Richard Nixon’s order unlinked the value of the dollar to gold, starting floating exchange rates •Politics Other parts of Nixon’s proposals were more politically charged, though this change was more far-reaching as it paved the way for an entirely new way to trade currency
1995-96
Government shutdown
Budget power for Congress
1981
•What it was Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act set up the Congressional Budget Office and standing budget committees
1985-87
•What it was Two bills, the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981 and the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 cut taxes and domestic spending and increased military spending
•Politics Battle between a Democratic Congress and Nixon was on the heels of Nixon holding back $12 billion in funds Congress had approved
1997
Reagan’s first budget
2001
•Politics Bill received bipartisan support, though it was later struck down by the Supreme Court, revised and passed again
Bush-era tax cuts
2008
•What it was An impasse between the GOP House and Clinton shut down the government twice from November 1995 to January 1996
•What it was Balanced Budget Act was the first budget legislation after Clinton’s re-election and with the GOP in control of the House and Senate
•What it was Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act was the first of two tax cuts under President George W. Bush, which were extended under Obama in 2010
•Politics Newt Gingrich-led House pushed for steep non-defense cuts; deal was reached, though it sidestepped haggling over a balanced budget
•Politics Budget talks went quickly, with both parties looking to avoid intense fighting; they were helped by a growing economy
•Politics Republican majorities in both chambers allowed for relatively easy passage
Republican
NIXON
Party in power
Bank bailouts
Pay-asyou-go rules
1993
•What it was Budget Enforcement Act determined that spending or tax cuts could not add to deficit •Politics Tense negotiations between President George H.W. Bush and the Democratic Congress partially shut down the government; final deal included a tax increase, despite Bush’s pledge
2009
The stimulus
•What it was Deficit Reduction Act raised taxes and cut spending following a presidential campaign that focused on the deficit •Politics President Bill Clinton’s first budget was a tough political fight against members of both parties; it passed by a narrow margin
2011
•What it was Emergency Economic Stabilization Act sought to contain the credit and subprime mortgage crisis
•What it was $787 billion package of programs was designed to jolt the economy out of crisis
•Politics Bill failed an initial vote in the House, forcing both parties to regroup; stock market and political pressure helped another deal form within a week
•Politics Effort passed along partisan lines; no House Republicans voted for the measure; only three GOP senators supported it
Clinton’s first budget
Fight over debt ceiling
•What it was Summer-long partisan fight over raising the country’s debt limit resulted in the U.S. losing its perfect credit rating •Politics Both sides agreed to automatic cuts if further budget negotiations failed; those cuts are a contributing factor to the “fiscal cliff”
Democrat
FORD
CARTER
REAGAN
BUSH
CLINTON
BUSH
OBAMA
Senate House 1971
National debt
1990
•What it was Gramm-RudmanHollings Act set deficit targets and across-the-board cuts if they were not met
•Politics Conservative Democrats broke from their majority in the House to help the bills pass
First balanced budget
Budget targets
1974
1981
1985 1986 1987
1990
1993
1995 1996 1997
2001
2008 2009
2011
20 trillion
2012
$16.07 trillion
15 10 5
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Annual surplus or deficit As a percentage of GDP
2012 estimate
2
–7.0%
-2 -4 -6 -8 -10
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bills enacted into law
607
649
588
634 613
623
664
713
650
590
473
Number of bills per session of Congress
580 465 333
92nd
93rd
94th
95th
96th
97th
98th
99th
100th
101st
102nd
103rd
104th
394 105th
498 377
106th
107th
108th
482
460
109th
110th
383 111th
178
112th
113th
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Partisan voting
Percentage of votes where a party voted unanimously
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
Republicans
29%
Democrats
16%
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Senate, U.S. House, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Treasury, Regional Oral History Office of The Bancroft Library at the University of California, Berkeley, The Washington Post, Pew Research Center, CQ Roll Call, Tribune reporting, news reports, MCT Photo Service Graphic: Kim Geiger, Carolyn Aler, Jonathon Berlin, Chad Yoder, Chicago Tribune
© 2012 MCT