HUMAN FUTURES MARCH 2024

Erik F. Øverland President

LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT

Dear Members, Colleagues and Friends,

WELCOME to a new issue of the Human Futures Magazine. As always you will find a long range of interesting perspectives and topics, this time spanning from The Futures of Work over possible consequences of AI and the evolution of consciousness to the state of planetary futures. Magazine starts out with the “Futures Matters” column. In this issue’s version, Claire A. Nelson asks the intriguing question: how do we share our decision making? One of the answers, she proclaims, is that “we have to get past our fear of AI in order to make decisions regarding how we will use it to make decisions about how we live, what we eat, how we educate, how we grow food, how we vote, how we govern and so on”. On this basis she offers a long list of reasons why humans should not fear AI. Definitely an interesting take on one of the most prominent technological revolutions of our time.

In the Features section you will this time find Rosa Alegria’s reflections on both the Futures of Work, followed by Gianpietro Malescios piece about a possible cognitive divide when we introduce AI based cognitive servants. Tom Lombardo writes about the personal evolution of futures consciousness. Here the reader is invited into an exciting universe following up on his contribution to this Magazine in the December 2021 Issue.

In the Prognosis section you will this time find the brilliant essay of Victor Motti in which he addresses the question about and the need for global consciousness as a state of planetary futures. This is accompanied by another two great contributions; one by Elissa Farrow who explores the intersection of AI futures for creativity and artistic expression. The second one is about the necessity to think through how we are supposed to organise education from now toward 2050, written by Valentín Elías Pineda.

And, not to forget - also in this issue you will find interesting Book Reviews, Technical Notes, a couple of presentations from our 25th World Conference in Paris, WFSF Happenings and Aftermost.

I wish you all a happy READING!

Sincerely Yours, Erik

Erik F. Øverland President

World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) wfsf.org

president@wfsf.org

Historia abscondita. Every great human being exerts a retroactive force... There is no way of telling what may yet become part of history. Perhaps the past is still essentially undiscovered! So many retroactive forces are still needed!” - Nietzsche

“Future that is sustainable requires to hybridize Human and Machine”s

“Hope is the fuel that drives the engine of the desired future”

FOREMOST

HOW WE SHARE OUR DECISION MAKING FUTURE MATTERS

By Claire A. Nelson

IDON’T think of myself as a Luddite, that is a person opposed to new technology or ways of working. I love the ability to check email on the phone. Now. When it first became possible, I was convinced that I would never add email to my phone. I parked the FitBit I got as a Christmas gift fearing invasion of privacy. I have resisted joining TikTok even though I love to dance and have been practicing the ever-changing panoply of trending dances. The truth is, I am a late adopter of anything tech. I admit I have anxieties about AI. #AIAnxiety that is a thing. I have it. And so, it seems, a good percentage of us humans. I am comforted by the fact that I am not alone. The hashtag lets me know. Follow it. Governments around the world are trying to create policies and regulations to tame the beast, but many fear it is too little, too late. But is it too late?

In the words of Yoda – the great philosopher from a galaxy far away, “Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.” We need to move away from a place of fear to a place of knowledge. But how? It

is easier said than done. Hence the steady rise of mentions of AI Anxiety in blogs and essays, causing it to be new ‘it thing’ to grace the sophisticates’ list of neuroses. Get used to it.

At the 2023 World Futures the theme ‘Exploring Liminalities’ was selected to anchor the idea that humanity is in between two places or stages of consciousness and being. Our civilization is on the verge of transitioning to something else or something new. It is vital to reimagine that space in between our being awake and falling asleep as a space for creating unlimited futures. AI is useful for a time such as this with us having so much data and information at our disposal. More than we know what to do with. Indeed, what we know for sure is the fact that there is much we don’t know. And what is worse, we are now cognizant of the reality that there is still a lot that we don’t know, that we don’t know. We know that the future is ours to co-create by the choices we make today. What we also know for sure is that we have a lot of decisions to make about how we share our future. Thus, in addition to how we share our

planet (and by extension galaxy), how we share our humanity, and how we share our rule books, comes the question of how we share our decision making. The key factor ‘Who gets to decide what is good for the human family?’.

From a gender perspective, it makes me worry that the paternalistic tendencies of most of the powers that be are still simmering under the surface. Who would have thought that in these great ‘liberated’ United States of America, women would still not be in control of their decisions around reproduction? From a race and ethnicity perspective I worry that the old racial hatreds and biases of many in power will turn back the clock on civility and civilization. Who would have thought that in postObama United States of America, the teaching of Black History would be under attack. Being both a woman and a person of African descent, since birth, these concerns are among those that color the lens through which I view the world. This question, How We Share Decision Making, is a powerful driver for the way I show up in the world – as an actionist. Coming from a small island beset by the British Commonwealth located in the blue shadow of the American Empire, I learned very early that not all nations are created equal – even if they equally have one vote in the United Nations. Having delivered a contract for

good governance of the global commons in the form of UN Agenda 2030, the UN is now hard at work deliberating on a Pact for The Future. The question of the future of AI is on the minds of policy makers at all levels of decision making -- global commons and local good. How do we share our future with AI? Do or Do Not?

One thing is certain, we have to get past our fear of AI in order to make decisions regarding how we will use it to make decisions about how we live, what we eat, how we educate, how we grow food, how we vote, how we govern and so on. We are aware of the algorithmic injustices in AI -- like racial biases in facial recognition software. We know that researchers have trained AI to be racist, and now AI gurus are creating music and art and cartoons so well executed that it seems to threaten our very concept of what it means to be human. We have heard from the experts that this is just the tip of the iceberg. There is much more to come. #AIAnxiety. We have named our fear –’Fear of the unknown ways in which AI may emerge to destroy our humanity.’ What will it take us to explore the landscape of the emerging future, meet our fears and banish them?

For the answer to that I decided to ask the oracle at OpenAI aka CHATGPT – two questions: 1) Why Should Humans Fear AI? and 2) Why Humans Should Not Fear AI? Here are the answers I got.

ME: Why should Humans Fear AI

CHATGPT: While it’s important to maintain a balanced perspective on the potential benefits and risks of AI, there are valid reasons why humans might harbor fears or concerns about AI:

JOB DISPLACEMENT: AI and automation have the potential to significantly disrupt labor markets by automating tasks traditionally performed by humans. This could lead to job loss, unemployment, and economic instability for many individuals and communities.

AUTONOMOUS DECISION MAKING: As AI systems become more autonomous and sophisticated, there’s a fear that they may make decisions that are harmful, unethical, or contrary to human interests. The prospect of relinquishing control to machines raises concerns about accountability and the potential for unintended consequences.

PRIVACY AND SURVEILLANCE: AI-powered technologies, such as facial recognition and predictive analytics, have the capability to gather and analyze vast amounts of personal data. This raises concerns about privacy infringement, surveillance, and the potential for abuse by governments and corporations.

BIAS AND DISCRIMINATION: AI systems are trained on large datasets that may contain biases present in society. As a result, AI algorithms can perpetuate and even exacerbate existing biases, leading to unfair or discriminatory outcomes, particularly for marginalized groups.

EXISTENTIAL RISK: Some individuals and experts worry about the long-term implications of AI advancements, including the

potential for superintelligent AI to surpass human intelligence and pose existential risks to humanity, such as loss of control or unintended catastrophic consequences.

ETHICAL CONCERNS: AI raises complex ethical dilemmas related to autonomy, responsibility, and the treatment of AI systems. Questions about the rights and moral status of AI entities, as well as their impact on human society, provoke significant debate and concern.

SECURITY THREATS: Malicious actors could exploit vulnerabilities in AI systems to launch cyberattacks, manipulate information, or develop autonomous weapons systems, posing significant security threats to individuals, organizations, and societies.

While these fears are valid, it’s important to approach AI development and deployment with careful consideration, ethical awareness, and proactive measures to mitigate risks and maximize benefits for humanity.

On the other hand, Why Humans Should Not Fear AI

HUMANS SHOULD NOT FEAR AI FOR SEVERAL REASONS:

TOOL FOR PROGRESS: AI is essentially a tool created and controlled by humans. It has the potential to revolutionize various aspects of society, including healthcare, transportation, education, and more. Rather than fearing AI, humans can embrace it as a

means to enhance productivity, efficiency, and innovation.

AUGMENTATION, NOT REPLACEMENT: AI is more likely to augment human capabilities rather than replace humans altogether. AI systems are designed to assist humans in performing tasks more efficiently, enabling them to focus on more creative and strategic endeavors. This symbiotic relationship between humans and AI can lead to greater overall productivity and job satisfaction.

ETHICAL DEVELOPMENT: Many researchers and organizations are committed to developing AI ethically and responsibly. Initiatives such as AI ethics guidelines, transparency in algorithmic decision-making, and bias mitigation techniques aim to ensure that AI systems align with human values and priorities. By prioritizing ethical considerations, the risks associated with AI can be minimized.

REGULATORY OVERSIGHT: Governments and regulatory bodies are increasingly recognizing the importance of regulating AI to protect public safety, privacy, and societal well-being. Regulatory frameworks can help address concerns related to AI’s impact on employment, bias, privacy, and other societal issues, providing reassurance to the public.

EMPOWERMENT THROUGH UNDERSTANDING: Fear of the unknown often stems from a lack of understanding. Education and awareness about AI can empower individuals to make informed decisions and participate in shaping its development and deployment. By understanding how AI works, its limitations, and its potential applications, humans can engage

with AI technologies more confidently and responsibly.

In summary, rather than fearing AI, humans should approach it with a mindset of collaboration, ethical consideration, and empowerment. By leveraging AI responsibly and ethically, humanity can harness its potential to address pressing challenges and improve the quality of life for individuals and societies worldwide.

And finally, humans should not fear AI for several reasons. These include the fact that we are ultimately responsible for designing, developing, and deploying AI systems. With proper regulations, ethical guidelines, and oversight in place, we can ensure that AI is used responsibly and in alignment with human values. Human control over AI systems can mitigate potential risks and ensure that they serve humanity’s best interests. There is a growing emphasis on incorporating ethical considerations into AI development and deployment. Ethical AI frameworks prioritize fairness, transparency, accountability, and privacy, aiming to minimize potential harms and maximize societal benefits. By adhering to ethical principles, AI can be harnessed for the greater good without instilling fear. AI presents opportunities for collaboration between humans and machines. By working together, humans and AI can solve

What Role for AI in Our Shared Futures? “ ”

complex problems more effectively and achieve outcomes that neither could accomplish alone. Collaboration fosters mutual understanding and trust, alleviating fears of AI-driven scenarios that are often portrayed in popular media. We should not fear AI but instead approach it with cautious optimism, emphasizing responsible development, ethical considerations, and collaborative efforts. So back to the questions. How will we share our decision making? What role for AI in our shared futures? #AIAnxiety Breathe In. Breathe Out. Be Gone!.

THE FUTURE OF DECISION MAKING

1How will advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning shape the future of decision making across governments?

6Will we ensure that AI systems are designed to support human values and objectives as opposed to replacing humans?

2

Will ethical considerations be addressed as decision making becomes increasingly automated and reliant on algorithms?

7Will AI-enabled decision-making be implemented to mitigate potential job displacement by AI, and ensure a smooth transition to AI-driven workflows?

3

Will emerging technologies such as blockchain and decentralized decision-making platforms impact traditional decision-making structures within democratic governments?

4

Will AI be used to influence decision making, particularly regarding cross-border rule books issues such as, cybersecurity, trade, and air traffic control?

8Will we develop robust frameworks and regulations to safeguard individuals’ rights and mitigate risks associated with the misuse of AI technologies?

5Will we be able to ensure inclusivity and diversity in decision-making processes to prevent biases and promote equitable outcomes?

9Will we succeed in leveraging AI to enhance collaborative decision making among nations and international organizations to address global commons challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and ocean health?

10Will AI-driven decision making promote transparency, accountability, and inclusivity in the formulation and enforcement of international agreements and treaties related to the global commons?

FEATURES

A WALK INTO THE FUTURE OF WORK

By Rosa Alegria

FUTURISTS often take a walk through time through imagination. Past, present and future meet and reveal causes and impacts. Here we will imagine what work might be like in the future, taking into account the changes that the pandemic has accelerated since 2020.

To get a real sense of what is changing, we need to go far into the past and look for the origin of the word “work”, which comes from the Latin tripalium, an instrument of torture used in the Roman Empire. It was with this association with pain, sacrifice and suffering that, throughout history, workers were considered inferior beings, condemned to work.

The Enlightenment ideas of the 18th century and the Protestant ethic that founded capitalism gave the worker social recognition as a privileged being in the market. We take the importance of work so seriously, given this idea that legitimizes us as citizens-producers-workers, that we voluntarily enslave ourselves to it and to the need to obtain social status. Before we were despised, today we are praised for the scarcity of our time, associating the value of our human capital with the number of hours that are stolen from us with our consent.

The new times show signs of change. Advanced technologies are taking human space, and strenuous work is losing its value. Asymmetrical dedication to the professional and personal dimensions no longer makes much sense, given our inability to

compete with the productivity of machines, the precariousness of working conditions and the free time that becomes available to live life to the full.

IMAGINATION OF THE PAST, REALITY OF THE PRESENT

History proves that what is imagined in the past becomes reality in the present.

Art and culture disseminate projections of the future at different historical moments that crystallize in the collective imagination and become self-fulfilling prophecies. Film productions, the media, the visual arts and literature are vectors that end up colonizing minds with futures that often don’t speak to different ideals and contexts.

The changes emerged from Covid19 were already envisioned 100 years ago by John Keynes, an iconoclastic English economist who, at the time of the depression (after the 1929 crisis), was already questioning the preponderance of the economy over social life and questioning the idea of economic growth and technological progress as ends in themselves on the line. He wrote an article imagining his grandchildren in a better world in 2030, working 15 hours a week and with a universal basic income as the great achievement of capitalism. Keynes was right. What may have seemed utopian at the time

(and even today) may be the reality of the next 20 years.

Dutch historian Rutger Bregman, with his essay “Utopia for Realists”, and the italian sociologist Domenico de Masi, with his thinking on creative leisure and liberation from work, revisited what Keynes already announced in the past: a society in which everyone can choose what to work on, with their needs met by a universal basic income.

Work for pleasure and free time is closer than we can imagine.

What if Keynes were alive to witness everything that is happening today (and is yet to come) with superintelligent machines?

Keynes’ future points to an elimination of professions and jobs never seen before in history.

Remember that today’s children will be in their professional maturity in the 2050s. But everything will be different. What will they be doing? How will they be living? And what will they be working on?

WELCOME TO 2050: THE SELF-ACTUALIZATION ECONOMY

Taking a leap back in time, we are now going to 2050 looking at the after-effects of a disorganized and dysfunctional economy since the 20s.

Jobless economic growth, more investment in machines than humans, technologies replacing jobs, precarious work, structural unemployment, all this was reversed from 2025 onwards when the world was trying to hit its stride in the postcovid transition.

2024: 26 years ago, work was a continuation of industrial the 20th century. Despite the new flexible time patterns and remote working, many still lived overwhelming 12 hour working days, in cramped spaces indoors with invasive schedules and blurred realities between personal and professional, mental illness on the rise, limitless stress.

We applied for graduation programs that someone else

told us to be more conveniente, students with no idea what profession they were going to choose, we accepted a job in order to pay bills and a living space, then we retired and died.

After the pandemic and because of it, the market underwent significant changes, leading to the end of a number of businesses and massive layoffs, giving rise to an emerging post-employment workplace, freelance jobs and services and multiple jobs everywhere.

Greatly confronted and weakened, the economy, which still didn’t have a new name, began to take on different shapes - viable and surprising - in the face of restrictions as well as opportunities.

Our 50 years of global crises have taught us about the afflictions of pandemics, flooded cities, burnt forests, droughts and other increasingly violent and increasing climatic disasters. During the pandemic, social and economic dysfunctions were exposed. The economy has been questioned by the very power brokers who once defended it. In 2016, for the first time since it was created in 1971, the World Economic Forum brought together the financial world to talk about the crisis of capitalism. In 2019, the Financial Times, the world’s most influential economic newspaper, created a historic supplement proposing a change in

The image of workers in history’s first science fiction: Metropolis in 1921

capitalism. In 2020, the proposal of those who previously defended this model was to give the economy a major reset and change the current paradigms. All this led to the world it is today in 2050.

Much of what the futurists of the Millennium Project predicted decades ago in the study Work x Technology 2050 has come true.

We live in a self-actualization economy. We are not only self-employed, but also freed from routine jobs, and we live daily with robots who, like humans, also have their rights.

We have taken on various professions throughout our lives and today, in 2050, we work “with” and not “for” someone. Companies no longer have formal teams; they have clusters of professionals working on projects. Work continues to be anywhere. We work less, some also earn less, others earn more, but with fewer differences than before, because adjustments have been made between income and time differences, and this has helped to combat unemployment.

With the development and public access to extensive research conducted by futuristic think tanks such as the Millennium Project, it has been possible for governments to promote alliances with various sectors of society (companies, research centers, universities and the media) and anticipate the impacts of artificial intelligence.

Universal basic income systems have been implemented to promote autonomous work, with free and flexible time. Faced with the needs exposed after 2020 by the experience of the megacrisis, various sectors of society mobilized to promote a major change that transformed what had previously been an employment-oriented culture into one of self-fulfilment and free work.

It was possible to shake up what was dysfunctional and what many still called normal, and to mitigate alarming inequalities with the implementation of proposals (which were already being tested in several countries) such as universal basic income. With the reduction of the working day to 15 hours a week (remember Keynes?) indicators such as productivity no longer applied to humans, but to machines. What used to be measured by economic growth that destroyed the environment is now measured by social well-being integrated with the regeneration of ecosystems and the circular economy. GDP (gross domestic product) has been replaced by GDP (product of well-being).

For the first time in history, society as a whole has come together to talk about desirable futures and new working models. Cultural productions such as films, games, virtual reality newscasts, flash mobs, hybrid and phygital events open to everyone’s participation, new voices that had

NOTES:

1 Credit: James Pollard / Google Art Project

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20170721-the-gig-economy-of-the-18th-century

2 Source: PaleoFutures

3 Created by Bing

Vision of the home office of the future at the end of the 19th century 2

Working in Communities 3

previously been excluded came out of the social backstage and onto the debate stage.

TO BE SOMEONE IN LIFE OR TO BE SOMEONE FOR LIFE?

Today, at the end of 2050 and the beginning of 2051, the festive bells are ringing for the liberation of employment as a condition of social acceptance and self-respect. That anxiety about “being someone in life” has surrendered to “being someone for life” attending the needs of regenerative futures proclaiming the sovereignty of life, tuning up eco skills with the facilities of AGI.

Entrepreneurs recruit labor from a global pool of freelance professionals, instead of traditional full-time employees. Just a tap away on digital platforms facilitated by artificial intelligence in phygital (physical and digital) realities, there is the availability for “on demand” professionals to interact with contractors in different immersive experiences. Complex hiring processes and costly benefits such as health insurance and social security are a thing of the past. Today’s less educated workers are entering accelerated training programs to try to fill the gaps in “employability”.

The multiplicity of successive activities that intertwine

require continuous learning systems and the application of interdisciplinary knowledge.

With the advent of robotics taking over tasks that used to trigger the left side of the human brain, essentially human activities related to the right side of the brain, those that deal with emotions, intuition, creativity and judgment, are more valuable.

In times of job scarcity, universal basic income guarantees quality of life and supports human dignity with essential benefits that go beyond the maternity leave of yesteryear or unemployment insurance. Today there is family leave as a regular feature of the labor market that provides enough to sustain a decent lifestyle and access to basic services such as health, education and transportation.

All these improvements that we are experiencing today in 2050 and which in 2024 seemed unattainable, from 2030 onwards were orchestrated in the face of the failure of most countries to achieve the SDGs. Work was at the epicenter of attention. Programs to promote decent work and quality of life were largely funded by massive reductions in production and energy costs through technological advances in nanotechnology, biomimicry, materials science, and

other innovations that reduced the costs of construction, manufacturing, maintenance, water, energy, medicines, infrastructure, and others. Taxes are levied on the use of technologies. Basic goods are sold for around a tenth of what they costed in the early 20s

Contrary to what many thought thirty years ago, the need for genuine human relationships is greater than ever. As the world has become more technological, the excesses of the virtual have had devastating impacts on human health that have forced a return to deep contact with natural life and people.

FROM THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY TO THE DREAM SOCIETY.

From the knowledge society we have come to define ourselves as the dream society that futurist Rold Jensen envisioned at the end of the 20th century.

The great innovations today revolve around what is essentially human and what can enrich the experience of relationships, making them more authentic and woven by stories. Storytellers are the most valued professionals today because they know how to convey human emotions like few others, which are translated by designers and engineers into products and services. Performance indicators such as productivity, competitiveness and speed are applied to robots and other technologies, but not to humans. Today we have new human evaluation systems such as indicators of empathy, collaboration, compassion, imagination and the ability to produce dreams for public enjoyment. In fact, “enjoyment” has replaced the word “consumption”, which has become obsolete because of its meaning related to destruction, exhaustion.

EDUCATION OF THE SENSES

The training of professionals prepared for the changes that were to come, imposed by the great pandemic, relied on new teaching-learning systems, through new practices that were unlocking the paralysis of the educational system in its greatest crisis ever recorded in history. With the lockdown taking school routines by storm, teachers no longer saw any way out of capturing young people’s attention through the imposed screens. New policies and inter-sectoral alliances worked for a new education, creating networked learning centers that, over the years, began to connect with the world, promoting the exchange of knowledge and intercultural experiences. Knowledge was expanded for each student . To learn about the past was so important as to learn about the future. The teaching experience became more diverse and stimulating for teachers too. Today, hybrid environments add pleasurable classroom dynamics interspersed with a few moments of remote teaching that transcend sight and hearing and explore multisensory power.

The inclusion of new classes such as futuresthinking has created space for the creation of new professions that didn’t exist until 2024.

UNTHINKABLE JOBS

Professionals who are on the rise in the middle of the century: storytellers, time hackers, education designers, new currency brokers, remote surgeons, urban farmers, education designers, genetic engineers, drone traffic engineers, drone pilots, 3D chefs, nanotech tailors, molecular gastronomy chefs, robot psychologists, autonomous vehicle technicians, genetic counselors, augmented reality architects, nostalgists, amnesia surgeons, longevity planners, clean energy managers, Mandarin teachers, nanotech tailors, personal data mentors, 3D holographic presenters, waste engineers, alternative energy technicians, holistic health mentors, human organ manufacturers, memory surgeons, creativity mentors, genetic counselors, space travel pilots, physical reality dematerializers, metaverse tour guides, space law attorneys, robotic ethics experts, virtual business economic analysts, nature relationship coaches.

Looking back over the five decades we’ve lived through this century, the planet has taught humanity just how important it is. We are now a society with an expanded consciousness, having overcome the cognitive limitations and ideologies that separated us and prevented us from finding answers to crises. Next year is already 2051 and we have many reasons to celebrate life in all its infinite fullness.

Phygital workplace. Made by Bing

WILL THE SMART SERVANT MAKE ITS MASTER DUMB?

By Gianpietro Malescio

AI promises to relieve us from many demanding mental tasks. What will happen to our hard-earned cognitive abilities?

In the past year, AI has taken the world by the storm with its capacity to generate human-like texts and artworks. These impressive achievements have brought AI into the spotlight and captured everyone’s attention. Though some forms of AI have been around for decades, such as expert systems and machine learning, generative AI has shocked the broad audience for its “creative” capacities. These are based on deep learning, which, through the use of artificial neural networks, makes it possible to train algorithms on huge amounts of data. This has led to the development of large language models such as GPT-4, which can generate human-like text on a wide range of topics, and allows AI art generators to create new and “unique” pieces of art, be it images, music or videos.

In the near future, AI will pervade almost every aspect of our society, revolutionising industries, improving efficiency and productivity, reducing costs, and increasing accuracy in various fields. However, the future of AI presents not only almost limitless

possibilities, but also many challenges and risks. Though science fiction scenarios in which intelligent machines take over humans appear implausible, AI impact on society and humanity will have momentous consequences. There is a lively debate about the risks associated with the use of AI, including issues like bias and misinformation, social manipulation, privacy concerns, and the potential for an autonomous arms race. One major concern revolves around the impact on the labour market. Many jobs will disappear, either because one single worker with the help of AI will be able to do the job of dozens, or because workers will simply be replaced by their artificial substitutes. On the optimistic side, it has to be considered that new job opportunities will emerge and the overall economic growth fostered by AI might ultimately expand the job market. Nevertheless, the fear of widespread job losses persists and carries strong emotional connotations because, unlike in past technological innovations, the adoption of AI will affect not only low-skilled workers but also highly educated professionals in various occupations traditionally associated with human intelligence and creativity.

Though somehow overshadowed by more immediate risks, the impact of AI on human cognitive abilities may become in the long run one of its most serious threats. The influence that digital information and communication technologies exert on our minds is widely acknowledged. Instant internet access, made possible by the ubiquitous use of smartphones, is of undeniable utility, but with people spending an average of seven hours a day online worldwide, it’s changing how our brains work. The capacity for deep analytical and critical thinking is declining, and reading tends to prioritise efficiency and immediacy. This transformation is altering our ability to interpret texts and establish the intricate mental connections that occur when we engage in deep, undistracted reading.

This scenario is going to worsen drastically with the diffusion of chatbots and AI-powered browsers. These tools not only spare us the inconvenience of searching the internet for information, reading content from various websites, comparing results and selecting what appears most relevant to the topic at hand, but they are also able to present the results of the work done at our place in the form of flawless text. Moreover, thanks to AI, speech recognition and synthetic voice will soon reach human-like levels, so our interaction with any digital device will soon change from textual to verbal. For most people this will reduce practically

to zero the need to read or write anything more complex than tweet-like posts. Being able to deal with an articulate text might soon become an obsolete skill. The tasks that AI is relieving us from are precisely those considered fundamental literacy skills: comprehension, ability to extract details, grasp the essence of a text, recognize inferences, condense information into a meaningful form, and make predictions based on reading. When an individual lacks these abilities, despite having some basic reading and writing skills, he is considered functionally illiterate. It is to be expected that due to the widespread use of AI, functional illiteracy will escalate significantly.

Personal assistants, the next AI revolution, promise to be extraordinarily useful, but the consequences of their widespread adoption could be potentially devastating. Who hasn’t dreamed of having an assistant ready to fulfil any request and capable of performing a wide variety of tasks on his behalf? Well, AI is ready to turn this dream into reality. Virtual assistants will not only provide us with easy access to information and services but will also take care of our daily tasks, planning our schedules so efficiently that we may end up delegating most of our thinking and decision-making to them. According to Mustafa Suleyman, the co-founder of DeepMind, Google’s AI division, AI-powered personal assistants will become a tangible reality within the next

five years. Everyone will have a smart servant who knows all their personal information and preferences, helping to manage daily tasks from planning vacations to finding an apartment, from assisting with work to aiding in weight loss.

An alluring prospect, no doubt. However, as written in William Shakespeare’s The Merchant of Venice, “All that glitters is not gold”. AI offers us an enticing fruit, but it may well be a poisonous one. The conveniences offered by AI could deprive human brains of activities that are essential to develop and maintain fundamental cognitive skills. Will our minds atrophy, robbed of essential activities that hone our cognitive capacities? May AI simplification of the decision-making process turn out to be a boomerang, leaving us baffled when faced with even minor choices made on our own?

The AI-induced impact on cognitive abilities will be far from uniform. How we wield AI is pivotal. Those engaged in mentally demanding professions and rich intellectual pursuits will continue to exercise their mental faculties, harnessing AI to augment their endeavours. Scientists and creators, liberated from mundane tasks, will have more time for creative thinking. AI may boost the creative process itself by enabling us to explore a huge combination of choices, compare and contrast many different approaches at a glance, and rapidly test new ideas and unexplored options. However, for the vast majority of the population passive reliance on virtual assistants may become the norm. In spite of the considerable time saved from everyday duties, the propensity to engage in stimulating mental activities may wane, leading to cognitive stagnation. In the long run most

will be unable to read and understand a text just more complex than a tweet, and a task that requires even a moderate mental effort will appear as an insuperable hurdle.

A “cognitive divide” could emerge, with a minority actively nurturing and expanding their mental faculties, while most face cognitive decline. Skills that are currently quite common, like reading, understanding, summarising, and comparing, will reduce to rudimentary capacities in the majority of the population. As the saying goes: “Use it or lose it!”. This potential scenario bears a close resemblance to what happened in our society following automation. With the ubiquitous use of motorised transportation and the diffusion of sedentary jobs, our bodies, honed by millions of years of evolution for strenuous tasks, got largely underused, which has caused the rise of sedentary lifestyle related diseases. An antidote for such issues is provided by recreational sports. They represent a surrogate for the physical exertion that automation spares us, so to give our body the physical activity it was designed for. This could provide inspiration for measures that humanity will have to adopt in the future to counteract the disuse of mental abilities caused by AI. Mental workouts during leisure time might provide our brain the activity spared thanks to super-efficient AI personal assistants and other AI-powered tools. The success of this approach will depend on active promotion by public and private agencies, aiming to make recreational mental activities appealing and fashionable to masses made dumb by AI’s capacity to reduce their cognitive efforts. Yet, it won’t be a simple task.

Mental inertia may prove far more challenging to overcome than physical laziness.

THE PERSONAL EVOLUTION FUTURE CONSCIOUSNESS

By Thomas Lombardo Center for Future Consciousness

IN my essay “The Future Evolution of Consciousness” in the December, 2021 issue of Human Futures1 I stated that the most striking and pervasive problem contributing to all our major global challenges and difficulties is weaknesses and failings in human consciousness. Hence, as a central strategy to improve our collective planetary reality, we should focus on significantly evolving our consciousness. More recently, the Alternative Planetary Futures Institute (ApFi) (directed by Victor Motti), in a collaborative creation of a number of its members, myself included, published the online monogram “The Future Ages of Collective Awakening,” which highlighted the imminent emergence of a new level of planetary consciousness in response to the global problems and transformational forces existing in the world today.2

Visions of the future evolution of human consciousness, though, are nothing new. Throughout history, philosophers and psychologists, and religious and social thinkers alike, in response to the perceived problems of the particular era, have argued for both the need for and the inevitability of human consciousness progressing to some wiser and more enlightened level in the future. 3 Science fiction writers, such H.G. Wells and Olaf Stapledon, in speculating on the future, recognized the central importance of human consciousness transcending its current capacities, if human society is to thrive and flourish, if not survive, in the centuries and millennia ahead. 4

The future evolution of consciousness—indeed the nature of consciousness itself—explored from numerous disciplinary and theoretical perspectives, continues to be a topic of great fascination and intense debate; philosophical, mystical, and scientific approaches to the topic abound in contemporary times. 5

In this essay I highlight the personal and individual dimension of the future evolution of consciousness. My central argument

“ ”

If you want to awaken all of humanity, then awaken all of yourself.

If you want to eliminate the suffering in the world, then eliminate all that is dark and negative in yourself.

Truly, the greatest gift you have to give is that of your own selftransformation.

- Lao Tzu

EVOLUTION OF CONSCIOUSNESS

is that we will most realistically and effectively facilitate the evolution of consciousness in humanity by taking individual responsibility for evolving our own personal consciousness. The foundation upon which to build the collective future evolution of consciousness is within our individual and distinctive conscious selves.

Taking an individual and personal approach to the future is not a common practice in future studies and foresight thinking. A notable feature in futurist literature is its emphasis on social, environmental, technological, and global-planetary forces, trends, and systems, rather than personal and individual lives and states of consciousness. The ApFi article, cited above, highlights humanity’s “Collective Awakening,” and the article focuses on broad historical and contemporary trends and forces presumably driving the collective evolution of human consciousness. In their professional and applied work with clients, futurists generally attempt to impact organizational and group behavior, mindsets, and attitudes. There are exceptions, such as Verne Wheelwright’s work on personal futures; Ahvenharju and associates’ research in defining and measuring individual human consciousness of the future; and a number of my writings, which focus on the enhancement of individual future consciousness. By and large, however, futurist thinking highlights social realities and general systems and forces rather than the personal and the individual.6

Although expressions such as “global” or “planetary consciousness” are often used in discussing current or future states of humanity, neither planetary bodies nor social groups are conscious; individual people (or persons) are. Although it is frequently argued that cultural, technological, and environmental factors shape and direct human behavior and human consciousness, consciousness manifests itself in our everyday lives anchored and centered in individual persons.

Human consciousness is a personal reality; each of us possesses an individual personal consciousness embodied within a distinctive biological body. Even if external factors and collective forces influence our consciousness—which is undoubtedly true—our consciousness arises, is integrated, organized, and directed, and reveals itself to others at an individual and personal level. In envisioning the future evolution of consciousness, the place to begin is with individual consciousness, since human consciousness resides within each of us as individual persons.

Starting from this individual and personal perspective, I suggest that the most realistic and efficacious way to conceptualize and realize the ongoing evolution of human consciousness is through embracing personal responsibility as essential and central to our conscious evolution. Each of us, as a distinctive conscious person, can and should take individual responsibility for evolving their own individual consciousness, and in doing so we will most effectively contribute to the collective future evolution of consciousness.

Even granting the influence of cultural, technological, and environment context on human consciousness, this “externally driven” perspective on human consciousness conceptualizes human nature as passive and reactive and disempowers us.7 If we see ourselves and our states of consciousness as controlled and directed by the social and technological environment, we see ourselves as powerless to shape and transform our consciousness.

Yet, although our human consciousness exists embedded in a multi-faceted ecological context, including other people, social organizations, technologies, the surrounding environment, and even the cosmos as a whole, how we think, feel, and behave in this complex context is shaped and directed by our individual consciousness. How we interpret our external reality and our current life conditions; what possibilities and opportunities we

perceive; and how we choose to engage with the world around us, all are strongly influenced and framed by our individual beliefs, motives, and habits of thought. We need to view ourselves as active agents in the flow of our states of consciousness with the power to redirect and transform our conscious reality.

Adopting a philosophy of personal responsibility begins with each of us applying the idea first and foremost to ourselves—as a constructive philosophy for implementing change in ourselves—rather than invoking this philosophy as justification for blaming or criticizing others for their problems and misfortunes. A philosophy of self-responsibility entails that before we “curse the darkness” around us, we need to “light the candle” within us.

One main reason for emphasizing the central importance of personal responsibility in facilitating the future evolution of human consciousness is that humans possess the distinctive and highly empowering capacity for purposeful evolution. The many blunders and mistakes along the way notwithstanding, throughout history humans have intentionally and consciously driven the evolution of society, the surrounding environment, and ourselves. Essential to our human nature, we are consciously purposeful beings that intentionally orchestrate, and transform both the world and ourselves. For better or worse, we have been (and still are), in the “driver’s seat” in our historical and evolutionary development.

Although evolution is frequently associated with biological evolution, usually understood within a Darwinian framework of natural selection, the general principle of the evolution of complexity has been applied in science to the entirety of the cosmos.8 Moreover, the mechanisms and processes involved in the evolution of complexity in the cosmos seem to be evolving themselves; new factors and forces come into play as we move up through the evolutionary hierarchy of nature. I have argued that with the emergence of humans and future consciousness,9 we have realized a new level in evolution in which, with our conscious minds, we intentionally guide the process of change, both in ourselves and the world. Humans engage in purposeful evolution.10

Bottom line: Human purposeful consciousness has emerged as a new, critical determining force in the ongoing natural process of evolution and change in the world. As such, embracing self-responsibility as central to the evolution of consciousness aligns with the general capacity humans possess to purposefully guide their own evolution.

Although we all routinely attempt to guide and direct our personal consciousness—to purposefully shape our thoughts, emotions, and states of mind—humans are, powerfully so, creatures of habit, both behaviorally and mentally, and it is a difficult challenge to transform or evolve our conscious states of mind. As therapists and counselors can attest, the intentional transformation of a person’s normal states of consciousness requires a lot of hard work. But as therapists will also attest, essential to this transformative process is the individual taking responsibility for reshaping and redirecting their own mind, personality, and attitudes. Indeed, since therapeutic clients often see themselves as victims of external factors and personal histories, suffering excessive anxiety, depression, and anger as a consequence of such attitudes, one big challenge is to help clients to see that they are not powerless and guide them toward taking responsibility and initiative for improving their conscious reality.

As such, although humans do direct and shape their states

NOTES:

1 This essay is reprinted in my Essays in the Future of Psychology and Consciousness (2022), pp. 327-336. See also my video presentation “The Purposeful Evolution of Consciousness” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eP_hthL6F9M&list=PLIvBA8u8-18QnMzlSlqZfqw_ WZ1AtLLN5&index=5&t=4s)

2 The Future Ages of Collective Awakening” Alternative Planetary Futures Institute (https:// drive.google.com/file/d/14P0yQaPvI6g5ykWGwbm9kb1Qv3Xmi7Wg/view ), October 1, 2022.

3 See, for example, Barbara Marx Hubbard’s Conscious Evolution (1998), Walter Truett Anderson’s The Next Enlightenment (2003), and my books The Evolution of Future Consciousness (2006), Chapters 3 and 4, and Contemporary Futurist Thought, pp. 303-315.

of consciousness, we may not recognize the level of control we have over consciousness and we may not exercise this power very effectively. But as revealed in both therapy and psychological studies, self-empowerment and self-responsibility, as capacities of consciousness, can be enhanced and evolved. Recognizing, embracing, and exercising our self-control and self-responsibility for our conscious states is essential for both the individual and collective evolution of human consciousness.

Throughout history and up to the present many different ideals have been proposed regarding preferable directions for evolving or enhancing our consciousness. How should we evolve our conscious minds and selves? In the ApFi article, the ideals of enhanced “planetary” or “global consciousness” are suggested as preferable directions for the evolution of consciousness, and I have discussed in various publications the complementary ideal of moving away from an “egocentric” mindset as essential to our conscious evolution.11

Nevertheless, I think that the key dimension to evolving our consciousness is a heightening of our “future consciousness,” that is, our consciousness of the future. The human capacity for future consciousness empowers us to engage in the purposeful evolution of both our world and ourselves, including our own consciousness. Future consciousness is at the center of our unique human capacities. Future consciousness, as I have

4 See my books Science Fiction: The Evolutionary Mythology of the Future, Vol. II, Chapters 1 and 2, and Vol. III, Chapter 8.

5 See, for example, the Center for Consciousness Studies, University of Arizona: https:// consciousness.arizona.edu/; The Scientific and Medical Network: https://scientificandmedical. net/; New Thinking Allowed: https://www.youtube.com/c/NewThinkingAllowed; Integral Theory (Ken Wilber): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integral_theory_(Ken_Wilber); John Stewart’s Evolutionary Manifesto: https://www.evolutionarymanifesto.com/about.html; and Psychology Today: Leading Theories of Consciousness: https://www.psychologytoday.com/ us/blog/finding-purpose/202308/an-overview-of-the-leading-theories-of-consciousness . and 2, and Vol. III, Chapter 8.

defined it, includes all those mental processes and experiences pertaining to the future, and this normal human multi-faceted capacity has allowed humans to purposefully guide and direct the process of evolutionary change both in ourselves and the world. Purposefully guiding the evolution of our consciousness at a personal level requires the capacity of future consciousness in imagining personal goals and ideals and developing and executing plans of action and thinking in working toward our goals and ideals. Still, future consciousness, although an essential capacity of normal human consciousness, comes in degrees; it varies along many different dimensions in different individuals, but it can be significantly enhanced in all of us.

Although the diverse theories, concepts, principles, and systematic methodologies of futures studies and foresight have all contributed to the ongoing evolution of future consciousness through human history,12 We need to articulate and embrace a concept of future consciousness that specifically highlights its development at a personal and individual level. 13 Indeed, since futures studies, in general, tends to slight the whole question of consciousness (as well, as noted above, the personal dimension of the future), it seems to me that a psychologically holistic vision of consciousness, and in particular future consciousness, is clearly needed to inform and inspire the personal, self-responsible future development of consciousness. What are the capacities needed to personally

evolve our consciousness? What are the capacities needed to personally evolve our future consciousness?

To address such questions, I’ve developed over the last two decades a virtue-based theory of heightened future consciousness that identifies a set of character virtues that individually can be enhanced in each of us personally, and that holistically cover all the major dimensions of human consciousness from perception, emotion, motivation, and purposeful behavior to learning, thinking, and imagination.14 My emphasis has been how each of us, as individuals, can evolve our future consciousness and, as such, contribute to the overall evolution of consciousness in humanity. As some of the key virtues of heightened future consciousness, how do we evolve self-responsibility, realistic hope and optimism, deep purpose, discipline and tenacity, the love and skill of learning and thinking, expansive temporal consciousness, a philosophy of self-growth, and personal creativity within us?

Involving a synthesis of the character virtues of heightened future consciousness, I’ve come to believe that the psychological development of wisdom provides a holistic vision for the preferable future evolution of consciousness. Defining wisdom as a future-directional capacity—wisdom involves the desire and capacity to improve reality—wisdom best captures the nature of heightened future consciousness. Any credible vision of the future evolution of consciousness

NOTES:

6 Verne Wheelwright, The Personal Futures Workbook, 2006 and It’s Your Future…Make it a Good One! (2010); Ahvenharju, Minkkinen, and Lalit “The Five Dimensions of Futures Consciousness,” Futures, 104, pp. 1-13, 2018; and Lombardo, Future Consciousness, 2017.

7 Lombardo, Future Consciousness, Chapter 8.

8 Lombardo, Future Consciousness, Chapter 2.

9 See discussion below on the nature of future consciousness.

10 Lombardo, Future Consciousness, pp. 90-95.

11 To propose some preferable direction for the evolution of consciousness and argue that we should actively pursue this goal assumes that we can engage in the purposefully directed evolution of our consciousness. It assumes we are self-responsible agents.

needs to encompass ethical, affective, motivational, and cognitive dimensions of consciousness. All these dimensions are usually included in visions of wisdom. As noted above, there are numerous theories of the preferable future evolution of consciousness, including many which cover “extraordinary” psychic and psychological powers, but one capacity frequently cited as critical to addressing our current world problems is wisdom. In my mind, wisdom seems to best exemplify the holistically ideal direction for the evolution of consciousness.15

Wisdom is a capacity that can be intentionally developed. In fact, one common feature among people identified as wise is that they purposefully pursued the development of wisdom. As an exercise in self-empowerment and self-responsibility, one practical and psychologically engaging approach to the intentional development of wisdom involves creating and purposefully embracing a wisdom narrative as a conscious framework to guide and inspire one’s life. What would it mean to lead a life dedicated to the development of wisdom and the application of wisdom to addressing the challenges of life? Describing such a life is a wisdom narrative.

Two other often cited features of wisdom are that it is pragmatic and action-oriented, and that it deeply penetrates the core personality of an individual. Wise people constructively apply their knowledge to the problems of life and wise people possess an intrinsically transformed consciousness and self-identity. Wisdom is a purposefully evolved state of consciousness, way of life, and personal identity.

As teachers and facilitators contributing to the future evolution of human society and human consciousness, we should become role models in the process. If we believe that the evolution of consciousness is critical to flourishing in the future, each of us needs to strive toward this end in our own ways of life. We should model the self-responsible pursuit of evolving our consciousness. Moreover, we should communicate the message that, although there are challenges and difficulties associated with the process, the power to evolve one’s consciousness exists in all of us. The message of self-responsible purposeful evolution should be both modeled and communicated. And since, as proposed above, wisdom provides the most credible vision for the preferable evolution of consciousness, as role models and facilitators, we should strive toward evolving our own capacity for wisdom and outline for others how to purposefully realize this ongoing “selftransformation” within ourselves.

12 Lombardo, The Evolution of Future Consciousness, Chapters 3 and 4, and Lombardo, Contemporary Futurist Thought, Chapters 2, 3, and 4.

13 As I have described, science fiction has also greatly contributed to the evolution of future consciousness throughout human history. Moreover, since much of science fiction deals with personally engaging narratives about the future, filled with emotional drama, it stimulates human consciousness more holistically and personally than future studies. See Lombardo, Science Fiction: The Evolutionary Mythology of the Future, Vols. 1-3, and The Evolution of Science Fiction: https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=9gbEnFN7lUo&list=PLIvBA8u8-18QzwxllJrzh6OAKVAUYfNmS

14 Lombardo, Future Consciousness, Chapters 7 to 17.

15 Lombardo, Future Consciousness, Chapter 18.

REVIEW ROOM

FUTURE HACK

BY DANA KLISANIN

A Book Abstract Review

By Leopold Mureithi

FUTURE Hack is the beginning of an epic journey for kids, an epic adventure to save our planet. It takes readers on an exciting journey with Lexa Andromeda, a twelve-year-old social media activist. After joining Thistleton Academy for Highly Creatives, Lexa finds herself in a tech-free zone. But when she stumbles upon a plot that threatens a massive environmental disaster, she must act.

Grief-stricken from the loss of her dog, and facing challenges at her dream school, Lexa, with her friends, delves into the mystery. Their bravery, teamwork, and persistence shine as they combat this looming threat.

Future Hack taps into the concerns of today’s youth about climate change, emphasising resilience, empowerment, and the ability to instigate change through one’s actions.

MEXICO 2050: CHALLENGES, SCENARIOS AND ACTIONS

A Book Abstract Review

NINETEEN authors decided to venture with diagnoses, visions, reflections, scenarios, and ideas for guiding projects, in order to help locally all the actors involved in the development of the country to implement the transformations that Mexico needs to become a prosperous, equitable, inclusive, and supportive country in a national and global scale.

The threats and opportunities presented by each of the 15 Challenges that the country faces and will face in the next 30 years are specifically analysed in the first section. The value of its analysis emanates from the fact that its impact is holistic, which is why simultaneous vision and attention is relevant, articulated, and measured to promote the transformation of the country and its population.

The second section of the book presents three scenarios extending to the year 2050: one depicts a fair and peaceful Mexico titled “National Plenitude.” A second extrapolative scenario is titled “The Eternal Promise” but with the promise unmet because the nation continues to suffer underdevelopment that has become chronic, with inequality, injustice, poverty, corruption, and impunity; in other words, the great challenges that were perceived 30 years ago, prevail. The third scenario “Agony and Desolation” is catastrophic and depicts a desolate country in which short-sighted public policies designed to ensure the minimum safety, food availability, clean water, health, and infrastructure for all the country’s inhabitants have failed.

The final section outlines Ideas for Guiding Projects, which are the detonators for the redirection of the country towards a better future. The intention is to provide background, inputs, and evidence for the designers, executors, and evaluators of public policies of the government instances at the federal, state, and municipal levels, in their executive, legislative and judicial spheres; scientific, and academic institutions; civil society organisations; and international organisations, so they can act within the framework of an innovative ecosystem that younger generations.

By Leopold Mureithi

THE FUTURE OF YOU: CAN YOUR IDENTITY SURVIVE 21ST CENTURY TECHNOLOGY?

BY TRACEY FOLLOWS

A Book Abstract Review

By Leopold Mureithi

BOOK reviewed by Annette Rudd, Leadership and Executive Coach; member Association of Professional Futurists and the International Coaching Federation.

Tracey Follows’ new book is a compelling exploration of the blurring of boundaries of identity and technology in the 21st century. She interviews futurists, transhumanists, philosophers, and technologists to provide a current perspective on the future of society and governance, relationships, wellness, and personal identity.

Each chapter cleverly provides an overview of emerging technology in an area of identity and poses questions to make us think deeply. In Knowing You, Tracey considers how our identity is becoming increasingly digitised. Government and corporations both have stakes – how will governance work as identity shifts to the cloud? Will credentialing now be the role of corporations? Will we have cloud-based citizenship instead of nation-based?

In “Watching You,” Covid-19 resulted in an increase in surveillance as a public health measure. This has transformed technology and created more surveillance - what level of privacy are we prepared to give up for better health and societal functioning?

In “Creating You,” there is a more fluid definition of identity as we assume multiple personas in virtual worlds. Avatars become more commonplace in different settings. Do they provide freedom or are we at risk of losing our authentic selves?

The post-Covid world has changed how we connect. In “Connecting You,” we see that the rise of emotional AI, artificial assistants and machines can be helpful, but could they also supplant human friendship?

In “Replacing You,” Tracey examines what might happen if the machines that replace the drearier aspects of work life develop

reasoning and thinking. For example, would they be afforded legal rights?

“Enhancing You” looks at gene editing, augmentation, and transhumanism in some detail. Is identity based on biology that can and possibly will be transcended? Can we prevent the inherent inequities as the rich gain access and the rest are left behind?

Finally, in “Destroying You,” all things beyond life are considered. Can we survive through life extension, mind clones, hive minds and cryogenics (and do we want to)? Who owns our digital legacy, including preserved and interactive future versions of ourselves?

The conclusion sets out four scenarios based on two metricsthe collective versus individual and traditional norms versus new technology. Tracey settles on the possible future where we respect traditional cultural norms in adopting technology while valuing individual expression and freedom. In this pluralist world, identity can no longer be one thing. Our privacy may be a thing of the past, but we can still experience identity as personal and claim ourselves through credentials, avatars, intelligent assistance, and our digital legacy.

This book guides us to go beyond who we think we are and to pay attention to present and emerging signals. It passionately presents the case for us to become active now in steering a course that maintains our freedom, dignity, and uniqueness while warning of the cost if we don’t.

The Future of You is highly recommended as an engaging and well written exposition of what it means to be human now and in the future.

DREAMS OF DEMOCRACY IN 2073?

By Hank Kune & Siv Helen Hesjedal

WHAT will Democracy be like in 2073? This is the question we invited participants at a workshop during the WFSF XXV World Conference in Paris in October workshop to consider. The first clear answer was that there will not be one kind of democracy, but many variants, each developed to suit the different cultures considering themselves to be a ‘democracy’. This challenges the prevailing notion of a monolithic, ‘Western’ liberal democracy as the sole model, an assumption rooted in post-Second World War American narratives. The participants in the workshop reflected that just as we want to think in futures, we also need to start thinking in democracies. The workshop made use of multimedia presentations and guided visualisation to bring participants back to 1973, the year the WFSF was founded, and then back to today, to consider some of the issues facing democracies then, and now – in the third decade of the 21st century. In this report we share the main ideas about possible futures of democracy in 2073 that emerged in the workshop.

DEMOCRACY PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

At the 25th Anniversary WFSF XXV World Conference in Paris, we promised participants a Living Experience of Democracy in 2073. The workshop was an invitation to think together about how democratic values can be used to tackle our wicked global challenges. What were our dreams of democracy in the past, we asked? What questions about democracy were we asking 50 years ago? Which questions are we asking now? How are these ideas relevant for renewing democracy? What dreams do we have today

about democracy in 2073?

Using the Futures Triangle as a framework - the weights of the past, pushes of the present and pulls of the future - we identified dreams of democracy in the past and the present. Images and representations of these dreams were shared in the form of multimedia presentations. Participants then discussed in groups.

DREAMS OF DEMOCRACY THEN AND NOW

We asked participants to set the stage. Fifty years ago, our understanding of the world was framed in bipolar terms: North/ South, Capitalist/Communist, and the like. Now, we see the emergence of a multipolar world, suggesting a future where multiple democratic models coexist. We face a paradox of progress and crisis. Europe values individual freedom, yet global conflicts and environmental challenges question the effectiveness of our current systems. “How hot is it now?” we ponder, drawing on the metaphor of boiling frogs to describe our gradual acclimatisation to rising global challenges. The discussions echoed the sentiments of young activists, symbolising a shift in perspective and priorities.

Today there seem to be more fears than dreams. “How hot is it now?” participants asked, drawing on the metaphor of boiling frogs to describe our gradual acclimatisation to rising global challenges. Many participants felt there is no ‘project for society’, no ‘American dream’ for the world. Well, said another, the groups of young people that strive for climate or glue themselves to pieces of art may have a different perspective on that.

Long and short-term cycles play a role in the evolution of

our democracies.

These “natural processes” keep the world dynamic. Some theories posit that every 80-100 years a new cycle begins by destroying the previous system.

In many parts of the world, inclusion is an illusion. It’s so hard to escape business as usual.

We keep hearing about new global orders, while global disorders abound. Wars are back in our lives.

We see different dynamics of demographics. But the old will no longer “go off in peace into the rosy sunset,” and the young are disappointed and angry.

There are lots of energies that could be focused, but the wrong people are doing the focusing. In 1973, danger was perceived to come from the Left. In 2023, danger seems to come from the Right.

How to include everyone? How to preserve freedom of speech? How to promote peace?

And the world seems full of people who think that these are the wrong questions; why include, preserve, or promote things like that?

DREAMS OF DEMOCRACY 2073. . .

The participants travelled to 2073 through a guided visualisation and discussion in groups. “There is not one ‘Democracy’ but many democracies,” one participant noted, each tailored to a specific time and place.

Participants imagined a landscape of varied democracies, where the majority’s truths coexist with those of many

minorities. However, the truths of the majority will no longer impose their ideas on the many minorities. You can trust that your truth will be heard. “How will you be heard?” asked someone. “Truth is above my paygrade”, said another participant. The only thing that counts is what works in the realities of everyday life.

Political engagement will evolve. Politics will be based on agreed-on long term decisions; our (inter)national goals and purposes. Different ‘representatives’ will work for achieving them: their names may change, but not the long-term decisions. Democratic politics will be about choosing per issue what kind of decision to take. In 2073, we won’t vote for individual people or parties; we will ‘vote’ for values and issues. For example ‘the importance of nature’.

The focus will shift from the larger context to the local ones. Democracies have had to adapt. Institutions and infrastructure will adapt too. There will be “ethical coaches” to help people understand the issues, and make decisions about issues based on their values. Will the public conversation be based on Western logics, or Eastern logics? Or Indigenous ethics? Or a synthesis of all three?

“More governance but less government” will shape the democracyspaces of the world: a kind of “condominium model” suited to different communities, cities and regions. There will be a variety of processes for helping people experience possible futures, people

agreed. “More governance but less government” will shape the democracy-spaces of the world: a kind of “condominium model” suited to different communities, cities and regions.

NOSTALGIA FOR LOST FUTURES

At the end of the workshop, we asked participants, “Which narratives from the past (1973 – 2023) are ‘haunting’ our thinking about possible democracies in 2073?”

These ghosts of democracy – ‘nostalgia for lost futures’, according to the BBC, aa ‘critical lens to explore cultural memory’ – are ideas haunting society from the past. Some of the answers were surprising. Along with Peace, and ‘Technology will set us free’, capitalism and a United Nations which works, one of our participants said: “We are not haunted enough!” Others agreed: We don’t have enough ghosts of the past to warn us or provoke us or keep us from repeating the same mistakes as before. It was an appropriate point to end the conversation, leaving the future open.

FROM PARIS TO REYKJAVIK

The workshop in Paris was a precursor to a larger event that will take place in Reykjavik in Iceland in February 2024. The Nordic chapter of the WFSF is inviting foresight practitioners, public representatives, policy makers and democracy activists to explore the futures of democracies in a three-day working conference.

From Paris to Reykjavik we bring questions about the foundations and principles of democracy, about future infrastructures and institutions of governance, and about how climate change, nature crisis, technology and AI will shape the futures of democracies. There will be talks, workshops, and future labs to explore this.

Visit https://framtidarsetur.is/futures-of-democracyreykjavik-2024/ to find out more.

NAVIGATING THE TURBULENT THE STATE OF PLANETARY THE AGE OF GLOBAL

By Victor Vahidi Motti WFSF Director

INTRODUCTION

In the ever-evolving condition of our planet’s future, the current state of affairs demands a critical examination. It is imperative to assess the pressing issues that define the State of Planetary Futures in the present moment. This essay addresses the intricate web of challenges and opportunities that characterize the global landscape, touching upon the unprecedented environmental changes, socio-cultural shifts, and technological advancements that shape our journey forward.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL QUANDARY

Europe, once a cradle of ancient civilizations and a harbinger of cultural diversity, now stands as the fastest warming continent. The ramifications of this climatic upheaval extend beyond borders, influencing ecosystems and societies worldwide. The alarming disappearance of half of the glaciers, coupled with ocean heat levels soaring off the charts, paints a vivid picture of the environmental challenges we face. Rising sea levels pose unthinkable risks for global security, demanding a reevaluation of our policies and collaborative efforts on an international scale.

TURBULENT TIDES: PLANETARY FUTURES IN

CONSCIOUSNESS

In the intricate dance of nature, another disconcerting trend emerges — the rapid decline in insect populations. This phenomenon not only disrupts ecosystems but also threatens global food security, highlighting the intricate interdependence of all living organisms on Earth. Concurrently, the fertility of men is dropping at an alarming rate, ushering in concerns about the very fabric of human continuity. These environmental and biological challenges necessitate urgent and collective action to safeguard the future of our planet and its inhabitants.

THE AGE OF GLOBAL CONSCIOUSNESS

In the midst of these challenges, signs of the age of global consciousness are manifesting everywhere. The call for ultra-universalism reverberates through societies, urging individuals and nations to transcend narrow boundaries and work collaboratively for the greater good. Yet, alongside this call for unity, a spectrum of emotions is unfolding — anger, anxiety, sadness, and disappointment. These emotions, while reflective of the challenges we face, also serve as catalysts for change, inspiring a collective determination to address the pressing issues of our time.

Simultaneously, there is a growing call for neospirituality and an integral mindset. As conventional paradigms shift, individuals seek a deeper connection with the world around them, embracing holistic perspectives that blend science, spirituality, and ethics. This paradigm shift extends to ideologies and philosophies, challenging traditional notions of progress and civilization. The emergence of new, less resourceintensive economic models and a surge in designing for the planet underscore a commitment to sustainability and environmental stewardship.

A NEW DAWN IN EDUCATION AND RESEARCH

Education and research are pivotal in shaping the trajectory of our planetary future. Initiatives focused on planetary well-being and health are on the rise, reflecting a collective acknowledgment of the interconnectedness of human and environmental health. The concept of intergenerational justice gains momentum as societies recognize the responsibility to preserve a livable planet for future generations. In this age of global consciousness, education becomes a powerful tool for fostering awareness, resilience, and a sense of shared responsibility.

AI: A COSMIC COMPANION

Amidst these profound changes, artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as a transformative force, joining humanity in exploring the cosmos. As technology transcends the boundaries of our planet, AI becomes a bridge, facilitating the exploration of consciousness among diverse life forms. The synergetic partnership between AI and humanity holds the potential to unravel the mysteries of the universe and redefine our place within it.

CONCLUSION

In the State of Planetary Futures, we find ourselves at a crossroads — facing unprecedented challenges but also witnessing the birth of transformative opportunities. The age of global consciousness beckons us to forge a new path forward, one that embraces unity, sustainability, and a profound understanding of our interconnected existence. As we navigate the turbulent tides of our time, the choices we make today will shape the destiny of generations to come. It is through collective action, innovative thinking, and a commitment to the wellbeing of our planet that we can craft a future that is both sustainable and harmonious.

EXPLORING

THE INTERSECTION OF AI FUTURES FOR CREATIVITY AND ARTISTIC EXPRESSION

By Elissa Farrow

IN recent years, the integration of #artificialintelligence (AI) in various aspects of our lives has become increasingly prevalent. From everyday technologies to complex systems, AI is reshaping industries and challenging traditional norms. Among the domains where AI’s impact is being felt is the realm of creativity and art. I was recently the societal and organisational futures representative on a panel held at the Queensland Governments ‘The Precinct’ where the panel explored #art, #creativity and #ai . This short article is a summary of what I heard and contributed to that panel conversation, where we explored the potential benefits and ethical considerations that arise when Art, Creativity and AI intersect.

As many of us now understand, AI, at its core, relies on neural networks and a rich source of data to process information and make decisions. By condensing vast amounts of data, AI augmented systems have been shown to be able to generate new and realistic content, such as images, poetry, lyrics, music and more. The panel discussion I was part of explored the numerous future scenarios offered by AI in creative industries,

including industries such as screenwriting, filmmaking, poetry, visual art, movement, and graphic design.

The panel presenters were talented artists, curators, technologists, and me as the resident Social Scientist and #futurist . One of my biggest takeaways from the evening was the significant advantages of AI technology in the creative process, is its ability to generate a multitude of options and possibilities, expanding the potential outcomes of a single topic or idea. By traversing the underlying information, AI systems can create new combinations and permutations, enabling artists to explore new territories. AI can also enhance workflow productivity and efficiency, providing artists with valuable reference points and assisting in tasks like concept design, object recognition and immersive art experiences.

While AI brings promising prospects to the creative landscape, I also heard that AI raises #ethicalai considerations and controversies in the art domain. One notable concern is the issue of attribution of creative style or image, and the fair compensation of artists. DeepMind, a team at Google, is actively

working to solve the attribution problem in AI-generated art, much like the ability to determine if text has been generated proportionally or entirely in university papers. The concept of creative or intellectual property #attribution is a challenging and currently untested space when it comes to AI taking a style developed over years by an artist and within an instant creating a stylised iteration. The panel discussion highlighted the need to ensure that artists receive due credit and that financial benefits from AI-generated art are appropriately distributed.

Another #ethical concern raised by panellists related to the question of whether AI-generated art can truly be considered “real art.” Some panel members suggested that AI lacks intentionality and creativity, as it primarily imitates existing styles or artworks. However, others believe that AI can produce unique and compelling works of art that deeply resonate with audiences. The Panel was not in full agreement, which makes for a fantastic audience experience and thought-provoking debate. The debate surrounding the definition and legitimacy of AI-generated art underscores the ongoing transformation of many other industries in the age of AI.

The Panel touched upon the issues of bias and the lack of diversity in AI systems and base code. AI models are trained on vast amounts of data, and if that data contains biases, the coding contains biases, the result being a perpetuation of bias within AI-generated content. My doctoral research demonstrated that it is crucial to ensure diverse and representative data sets are used to combat biases and promote inclusivity in AI-generated outputs. If we train AI on biased data sets, the AI will (unless verified) most likely reciprocate those biases. A bit like a child growing up in a household with specific biases on race, status or belonging. That child may grow up with those biases encoded, unless there are alternatives offered and personal choices made.

Throughout the panel discussion, the importance of human intention, values, and creativity in the artistic process was emphasised by all panel members. While AI can serve as a tool for artists and creators to explore new possibilities and push boundaries, it is the artist’s or content creator’s context, story, and subjective interpretation that give art its meaning and impact.

As a futurist and social scientist, I believe in human agency and equity. I believe that AI cannot replace human personal

experience and unique embodied processes in creativity, but it can be consciously used to augment and certainly inspire new insights and creative processes. The personal experience and our ability to make meaning is unique to each of us and these nuances are difficult to replicate within an artificial context.

The integration of artificial intelligence into creativity and art opens exciting possibilities and inspires new notions of artistic creation and future making. AI technology offers novel ways of generating ideas and scenarios, expanding access to creative expression, and streamlining creative processes. However, ethical considerations surrounding attribution, authenticity, biases, and the value of human creativity require careful examination and in some circumstances regulation.

My concluding thoughts from the panel discussion are as follows: as AI futures evolve, it is essential to strike a balance between leveraging AI’s potential for positive impact on our world and addressing the risks. I believe that responsible development and use of AI, along with diverse and inclusive practices, can help ensure that the intersection of creativity, art, and AI leads to a more vibrant and ethically conscious

artistic futures. The recent developments in general artificial intelligence offer an important wake up call for all of us interested in maintaining ethical human agency.

The ethical concerns are not a reason to say a blanket ‘no’ to AI, we instead need to be clear on the consequences of freely giving our data and having our creative ideas and products used without our consent. We all need to work together to ensure we have the right mechanism in place to guarantee that AI will bring a positive outcome for humanity and our ecosystem. These mechanisms will be developed iteratively and expanded upon as new use cases and tests of our current state come to reality. Our futures are within a number of hands: our personal agency and choice; our elected official’s choice and commitment to humanity and #ethicalai and those private companies that create and release AI in the first place.

Thank you to the other panel members who inspired my thinking and learning. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ the-precinct-aq_exciting-night-this-week-at-the-precinctactivity-7034735626524508161-vM49?utm_source=share&utm_ medium=member_desktop

PONDERING ON 2050 EDUCATION. ITS ORGANISATION TIME IS

TODAY.

By Valentín Elías Pineda

ASCENARIO of the year 2050 depends on the actions undertaken in the next decade. Such a scenario can be stressful when we think about the world today. In one scenario, we will confront almost depleted forests and aquifers, rampant escalation of living cost, food, water, materials and unemployment, and AI forms sweeping most human tasks and jobs.

Conversely, in a prosperous future in 2050, we will have human control of all AI types, a sustainable economy, almost total migration from fossil fuels to clean and efficient energy types and a space economy, with opportunities open to many types of space business.

As we all wish to be situated in the second scenario, we conclude that this decade must see an migration to clean energy sources, a circular economy instead of uncontrolled exploitation, control of all AI types, establishing the basis for space-based industry migration and also the basis for an educational system designed to properly adapt people to an exponential technological evolution.

A positive evolution in 2050 must also depict a scenario with Superintelligence and mature Predictive Superintelligence that are under human control in 2050. The superintelligence interacting with human beings must be monitored at all times and discontinued in case of possible decontrol.

In this scenario, mature Galactic harbours are operational, industry starts migrating to space and offering a great quantity of jobs. This also results in the Energy market successfully migrating to clean and space origin sources.

There is a balance in multiple sources of intelligence: Robotic, superintelligent and human. These are also properly organised in most jobs so that no unemployment chaos has resulted.

All this above needs a balance between Superintelligence and human intelligence, especially in education. This needs to start right now in order to achieve such results in 2050.

In terms of education in the year 2050, superintelligent oracles and translators make it possible for pupils to access whatever course, school, or university at whatever time, whether the sessions are recorded or live. The fact that superintelligence will be able to contextualise conversations in 2035 will make it possible for any student to attend any course or class any place in the world through a fully immersive metaverse.

Fully immersive metaverse makes it possible for immersion to happen in whatever environment, reality or fictitious. Real-world practice is made cheaper and without peril. Testing of structures and devices is possible before building them in the real world.

Nanomedicine displaces traditional medicine, micro and nano robots operate and dose medications, and they are tested in the metaverse before real operation. Predictive medicine results in cheap therapies. Medicine students need to learn more about robotics.

The combination of Superintelligence and mature Predictive Superintelligence applied to education makes it possible to

properly choose the more appropriate courses, locations, and trainers for everyone to maximise professional success.

All this requires thinking about education for all nations from now on.

From 2024 to 2050, we will experience an exponential evolution of society, and education in every decade must be useful for the subsequent ones. Traditional education i in the classroom with human teachers will migrate to a metaverse that combines human and superintelligent education by 2050. But we must also ensure that if the day comes when Superintelligence is cut off or unavailable, classes do not stop.

Students get displaced from home to their local school in 2023. The level of displacement will be substantially reduced in 2050. Not everything has to be metaverse as students must also socialise in the real world. Will the real world degrade while it looks precious in the metaverse? Some educational gap needs to be filled here.

Which is the suitable time to start updating teachers to teach classes with a superintelligent assistant?

Space is not a part of current education as it is not perceived yet as an environment where all citizens may live in the future. Technology milestones will make this possible as well as the migration of industry. Space education must enter into current education.

Superintelligence will be capable of using BPSM (Bio-PsychoSocial) monitoring for classes. This will be helpful for educational applications, but the sensation of being continuously monitored might be stressful for students, and is a tool invasive to privacy if not properly used. What is the suitable use for it and what should we discard?

The fact that in 2050, people will deal with mature Superintelligence and Predictive Superintelligence, also suggests a migration of human jobs from execution to management. Education must prepare also for such migration of jobs.

I agree completely with those who define Education as the gold of XXI Century.

INTERNATIONAL MSC & PHD FUTURES STUDIES CONFERENCE

By Narimane Djemili

Msc International Strategy & Influence student at SKEMA.

IN the frame of the 50th anniversary of WFSF, the Futures Studies students Conference assembled a remarkable array of futurists, scholars, and visionaries at Skema Paris campus on the 24th of October. Steering rich dialogues, participants (more than 70) unveiled insightful strategies, anchoring foresight in the enhancement of society, business, and education. Assoc Prof Dr Christophe Bisson (Scientific Director of the MSc “International Strategy & Influence” (ISI), SKEMA), introduced the event and stressed the rise of Gen AI and machine intelligence that combined with human intelligence for foresights can lead to better anticipations and to a more sustainable development.

The International MSc and PhD Futures Studies Conference

opened with a focus on ‘Foresight for Human Betterment’, chaired by Mrs Narimane Djemili. This session set the tone for the conference, focusing on the role of foresight in improving various aspects of society.

Mr. Issam Ourrai’s a former MS student at Ecole des Ponts, elucidated how Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) can be pivotal tools in fostering social harmony and enhancing human rights charters.

He articulated a vision where technology acts as a catalyst, paving the way for societal advancement and nurturing an environment of peace and inclusivity. Thus, the session stood as a testament to the transformative potential of technological foresight in shaping a harmonious societal landscape.

Mr Jeremy Wilken, a strategic thinker and software engineer, centred his expertise on the intersection of people and technology to forge positive futures. Boasting a wealth of accomplishments such as authoring two books, speaking globally at various events, and hosting podcasts, Mr. Wilken is distinguished by Google as a Developer Expert.

In his presentation, he showcased a practical approach to enhancing future awareness and adaptability using daily essential habits. To do so, he navigated through the pivotal stages of the foresight framework: Exploration, Sensemaking, and Strategizing. He began with Exploration, advising a vigilant scanning of the horizon for transformative changes and trends.

The second session of the conference, ‚Foresight for Business’, chaired by Mr. Gwenveaël Le Nedellec (MSc ISI Student, Skema) centred around the application of foresight in the business landscape. The discussion spanned various aspects, including strategic planning and market analysis, with contributions from multiple speakers offering diverse perspectives.The discussion involved topics like strategic foresight in global firms, exploring alternative protein markets, and envisioning Singapore’s healthcare in 2030. The session’s agenda was crafted to provide a broad spectrum of insights, promoting a comprehensive understanding of the role of foresight in shaping the business landscapes of the future.

Ms. Viivi Koivuniemi, from the University of Turku - Finland Futures Research Centre, delivered comprehensive research, focusing on evaluating the impact of strategic foresight in organisations. Her research was based on 12 semi-structured interviews, applying Reflexive Thematic Analysis for nuanced data interpretation. Through her exploration, she distilled five core themes from over 450 coded references, centering the discourse on the practical implications of foresight strategies. Ms. Koivuniemi emphasised the pivotal concept, ‚Impact = Change’, illustrating the transformative influences of foresight within

Transitioning to Sensemaking, he encouraged a thorough exploration of the potential implications and possibilities that these evolving landscapes present. Concluding with Strategizing, Mr Wilken emphasised the conversion of these discerned insights into actionable and pragmatic strategies.

Drawing on his comprehensive background and training from the University of Houston’s Foresight program, Mr Wilken underscored that professional training is not a necessity for mastering foresight. His approach presents foresight as an accessible and invaluable tool for enhancing decision-making processes and planning in the technological domain and beyond.

organisational paradigms. The presentation comprehensively navigated the multifaceted realms of foresight impact, unveiling the intricacies of its implementation and evaluative approaches within organisational contexts.

The presentation of the alternative protein market in the Netherlands by 2030 was researched and presented by Skema MSc ISI students: Mr Johnson Cheung García, Mr Oliver Grubert,

Mr Jonas Kirchhoff, and Mr Ivan Loktaev. Their presentation centred around four distinctive scenarios, each underpinned by consumer sentiments and technological advancements. They initiated the discourse by outlining the current market landscape, focusing on alternative proteins as meat substitutes. The scenarios, depicted with clear visual tools, illuminated various pathways of market evolution, reflecting different degrees of technological progression and consumer adoption. Each scenario provided insightful projections, forming a comprehensive portrayal of potential future landscapes of the Netherlands’ alternative protein market, along with their prospective challenges and driving forces.

Ms Pooja Krishna Navratna, Ms Claire-Marie Mouchous, Mr Ahmad Zreik, and Mr Paul Tavella, ISI students, presented ‘Thriving Strategy Msc students, ran an analysis of Singapore’s

healthcare landscape by 2030’.

Their presentation utilised scenario-based planning, considering variables like technology and demographics, to outline possible futures for Singapore’s healthcare system. They presented 4 scenarios, each indicating different development paths.

Each scenario has been constructed based on varying levels of technological advancements and consumer sentiments towards technology in healthcare. The scenarios ranged from Singapore excelling as a global leader in healthcare due to high technological integration and positive consumer sentiment, to facing challenges due to stagnant technological development and reduced consumer trust. Different strategies and approaches, in the light of each scenario, were also discussed, giving insights into navigating the various possible futures in healthcare.

In the final session, “Foresight for Education,” chaired by Mr. Abderrahim Farchado (Msc ISI Student), the spotlight was on enhancing foresight in educational settings. Mr Matthieu Denoual presented on designing an introduction tool for foresight, followed by a panel discussing the development of foresight in education, with contributions from notable figures like Prof. Elizabeth Strickler and Mr. Eric Seulliet.

In a captivating presentation by Mr Matthieu Denoual, a foresight introduction tool, namely ‚The Great Transition Game,’ was unveiled. The game is designed to simplify the complex concept of foresight, making it accessible and engaging for beginners.

The methodology involved in the game is articulate and systematic. Players engage in crafting solutions, aligning them with the predetermined challenges and the Guardian’s

parameters, fostering an environment conducive to creative and critical thinking. Various scenarios are strategically embedded within the game, each augmented with a variety of cards representing different aspects such as obstacles, actions, and mega trends. This approach facilitates players in having a holistic perspective on the scenarios, promoting a comprehensive understanding and application of foresight concepts.

A compelling aspect of the presentation was the insightful analysis of the game’s strengths and preliminary results.

Utilising the Kirkpatrick Evaluation Model, the game’s effectiveness was assessed, providing a nuanced understanding of its impact and areas for improvement. The game exhibits significant potential as an innovative educational tool in the realm of foresight, heralding a new era of engaging and effective learning methodologies.

Prof. José Cordeiro, an influential futurist, and MIT engineer presented a gripping session at the conference. With a wealth of experience and recognition, including his significant work, “The Death of Death,” Prof. Cordeiro delved deeply into the concept of singularity.

He painted a comprehensive image of the future, picturing how the world is steadily advancing towards a transformative point of technological singularity.

In his detailed exposition, Prof. Cordeiro explored the pivotal roles of various technological advancements in converging humanity towards singularity.

A panel discussion led by Mr Abderrahim Farchado (Msc ISI Student) on developing foresight in education featured diverse insights from esteemed professionals : Prof. Elizabeth Strickler from Georgia State University, Mr. Eric Seulliet, President of ‘La Fabrique du Futur’, and Prof. Jose Cordeiro of Singularity University, Silicon Valley. The panel focused on strategies and

approaches to integrating foresight effectively into educational paradigms, aiming to nurture future thinkers capable of navigating complexities with a foresight mindset.

During the panel discussion, Prof. Elizabeth Strickler offered a nuanced perspective on the relationship between AI and human creativity in the educational realm. She articulated her stand against the prevalent notion that AI diminishes human creativity. Referencing a specific study, she underscored that consultants who heavily relied on AI tools indeed exhibited a reduced creative output. This observation stirred a conversation around the essential question of finding a balanced integration of AI in educational practices that enhances rather than hampers human creativity. Through this discourse, Prof. Strickler encouraged a reflective examination of how AI technologies are utilised in educational contexts, advocating for a mindful approach that preserves and promotes human creative capacities.

DISTRACTED DISTRACTOR

By Monique van Hest

INTRODUCTION

RECENTLY, I was in two places at once. I spoke in Paris at the conference of the World Future Studies Federation, and at the same time, I was in the Netherlands to lead a session with my students. Was that smart?

DOING THE IMPOSSIBLE

Being in two places at the same time might seem impossible, but I managed to do it. The first location was the 50th Anniversary Conference of the World Future Studies Federation in Paris, France. The theme was liminality, so I talked about our initiatives to teach students to become future-proof thinkers. Not only is the entire curriculum of the program Creative Concepts of Communication imbued with creative processes, but we also consciously create space for our students to develop their ‘creative habit of mind’. So, the theme of the conference, ‘Exploring Liminalities: Creating Spaces for Unlimited Futures’ could not be more appropriate.

Press & Play, as the initiative is called, offers our students time and space for inspiration, incubation, and creation. We want them to break away from solely result-oriented action and instead allow wonder and the unknown to enter into their daily lives, something that is fundamental for creativity and innovation. For our elective

class Designing the Future, I am researching how to implement this in our curriculum, but also on how to make students and colleagues more aware of the importance of this ‘non-result driven’ program. Creativity needs incubation, as research has shown (Torrance, Csíkszentmihályi, 1997).

At the Academy for the Creative Economy, which is part of the study program Creative Concepts of Communication, we are teaching our students to develop into creative, reflective professionals. We want them to become changemakers, creating impact with the concepts they are developing. People that are changemakers could also be defined as ‘bootleggers’, persons that innovate because they are intrinsically motivated to do so, even if they are not allowed to. Bootlegging is ‘the process by which individuals take the initiative to work on ideas that have no formal organizational support and are often hidden from the sight of senior management but are undertaken with the aim of producing innovations that will benefit the company’ (Criscuolo et al., 2014). Following this thought and taking in mind that we want our students to become future impact creators, I argue that our students should develop the creative habit of mind of bootleggers, who are unconventional, curious, courageous, and anti-conformist risk takers (Augsdorfer, 2012). While not all our students might grow out to become that so-called bootlegger, we

do want them to become creative thinkers who are able to explore possibilities, ask questions to move beyond their assumptions, and extend their thinking while trying out alternatives (Treffinger et al., 2002; Torrance).

EXPERIMENTING WITH FRICTION

In order to help our students flourish and develop that necessary creative habit of mind, we follow the 4 p-framework of Rhodes (1961), which identifies four necessary elements to develop creativity: Product (valuable ideas, which also might contain originality – this is based on knowledge and expertise), Person (character traits of a person), Process (how are we being creative –for instance by following Creative Problem Solving tools) and Press (the context and environment).

In our Press & Play program, we try to develop the character traits of the student (Person) by using the context (Press) and adding Play. As said, we offer inspiration, which talks about themes that do not immediately relate to their study outcomes but do give them a broader understanding of the world (like philosophy, sociology, ethics, Artificial Intelligence) and excursions to museums, theaters, or other events. The second pillar of the program is creation: sessions that focus on short creative exercises. Finally, we offer time for incubation, teaching our students possible ways to zoom out and slow down, with, for instance, breathing exercises, yoga, meditation, or just doing nothing.

The Press & Play program is a work in progress and will remain

so. We are experimenting to see what works and what causes friction. We have already noticed that most students are excited about the inspiration but do not attend the incubation sessions that often. And I recognize this. While I advocate for incubation time for our students, my own incubation time is sometimes less than nothing. Just like my students, I move around in our world where results are key, which during the WFSF conference resulted in me being in two places at the same time. During the conference, a Press & Play session was planned that I would supervise. I wanted to do something with distraction and give the students small exercises to arm themselves against it. And what is a bigger distraction than a teacher who is not there? How do you deal with that? Do you get angry and go home? Will you stay at school to take on the assigned challenge? Are you going to do something different than you planned?

Reflecting like this is an important part of the Press & Play program, since it is intended to be an experimental tool for students. They use a self-assessment model to see whether they are growing or not, making use of Bill Lucas’ Five Dispositions Model (2016). Lucas identified five dispositions based on the theory of Mihály Csíkszentmihályi (1997): inquisitive (about wondering and questioning), imaginative (playing with possibilities), collaborative (working together and receiving feedback), disciplined (developing techniques and crafting and improving) and persistent (sticking with difficulty and tolerating uncertainty). Using this model, we help our students become

aware of what elements are at play when it comes to developing their ‘creative habit of mind’.

LOSING CONTROL

Enough theory. Let us go back to that day in 2023 when I decided to be in two places at the same time. That day, I created my Press & Play program around the disposition I like most: persistence, and being able to work with uncertainty. I had made a video (which one of my students played in class) explaining why I wasn’t there and giving instructions. I had set my email on a timer to send the exercise at the start of the lesson, including a reflection assignment. I was very curious to learn what those reflections would be like, partly because I expected some resistance.

Meanwhile, my own reaction was just as special. For weeks in advance, I was more concerned with this Press & Play session than with the presentation at WFSF. I was not sure how our students would handle it. I had a stomachache and could not concentrate very well on the conference during the hours that Press & Play was on. I noticed that I had difficulty with the fact that I could not exert any influence. I had no control over what happened in the Netherlands, so I was unable to intervene if students did not understand it or thought it was stupid.

I noticed that a part of me wants all students to experience my lessons as ‘fun’ and ‘inspiring’ or to ‘get it’ straight away. But Press & Play is specifically designed to let students experiment.

They can try out what works for them in an accessible way. So, it is logical that some sessions do not work for them. I know not to expect that either...

DIALOGUE

And yet. When I initially received only a few (very honest) self-reflections, I was briefly disappointed that students did not react to my questions. Just for a moment. Because I also realized that learning happens through dialogue. Not all students are able to reflect based on written questions. My presence makes the difference. When I am there, I can clarify the reflective questions, and ask and encourage students to look further if they cannot find an answer. I can also help them if they feel reluctant to do so. For some students, this kind of assignment works, but others will not connect.

I heard afterwards that some students were angry or felt disappointed. They shared their thoughts with their own coaches, so questions to reflect on these feelings can also be asked by someone else at another moment. It does not have to be done by me. And if a student is not ready to reflect, so be it … Maybe the student was not ready yet for this assignment. As I said, it is an experiment. If I choose to be in two places at the same time, I will have to let go and deal with the uncertainty, just like we are teaching our students. This Press & Play-session was not only a learning exercise for the students, it also gave me clear insights that I do have some presupposed ideas on

what I want to get out of a session. Just like our students, we, as teachers, are focusing on results now and again. And just like our students, we can struggle with the unknown. Being aware of that and being open about it is the first step. So, I keep on trying to practice what I preach. This is how we learn with and from each other.

References:

Augsdorfer, P. (2012). A diagnostic personality test to identify likely corporate bootleg researchers. International Journal of Innovation Management. doi:10.1142/ S1363919611003532

Criscuolo, Paola & Salter, Ammon & Ter Wal, Anne. (2014). Going Underground: Bootlegging and Individual Innovative Performance. Organization Science. 25. 1287-1305. 10.1287/orsc.2013.0856.

Csikszentmihalyi, M. (2013) Creativity: the psychology of discovery and invention. New York.

Lucas, B (2016), A Five-Dimensional Model of Creativity and its Assessment in Schools, in Applied Measurement in Education, vol 29, No 4 278-290, Centre for Real-World Learning, University of Winchester

Mansveld, M. N., Hölze, K., & Gemünden, H. G. (2010). Personal Characteristics of Innovators: An Empirical Study of Roles in Innovation Management. International Journal of Innovation Management, 11291147. doi:10.1142/S1363919610003033

Shaughnessy, M. (1998). An Interview with E. Paul Torrance: About Creativity. Educational Psychology Review. 10. 441452. 10.1023/A:1022849603713.

Sternberg, R. J, Karami, S. (2021), An 8P Theoretical Framework for Understanding Creativity and Theories of Creativity, in The Journal of Creative Behavior, Vol. 56, Iss. 1, (pp. 55–78) Creative Education Foundation (CEF) DOI: 10.1002/jocb.516

Treffinger, D.J., Young, G.C., Selby, E.C., Shepardson, C. (2002). Assessing Creativity: A Guide for Educators. The National Research Center on The Gifted and Talented. Center for Creative Learning Sarasota, Florida.

CELEBRATING 50 YEARS WORLD FUTURES STUDIES WITH AMAZON 2050

By Gustavo Machado

THIS year I had the great honor of speaking at the global conference celebrating the 50th anniversary of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF). This year’s theme was liminality, an anthropological concept exploring our world in transition across its diverse manifestations.

During the event, I presented the book “Amazon 2050,” a narrative guiding readers towards preferable futures for both region and the planet. Using Data Visualization tools, I had the opportunity to draw parallels between the book’s predictions and current data on the Amazon rainforest, as well as climate change, and finally the Anthropocene, enabling to further explore the many connections with the concept of liminality. The title of the presentation, “Amazon 2050: Exploring Liminalities Now and Then,” also embraced this theme of a world in transition, inspired by the Beatles “latest” song (Now and Then) with a twist of Artificial Intelligence.

The WFSF global conference, held this year at the prestigious École des Ponts Business School in Paris from October 25 to 27, 2023, provided a fertile ground for exploring the major changes and challenges shaping our present and future. Among various insights and analysis, my presentation offered a chance to bring more strategic clarity to the stage, outlining the intertwining of technology (including AI), nature, and humanity amid the emerging challenges and opportunities of this decade.

Amazon 2050” represents more than just a literary journey; it is in fact an invitation to strategic reflection in the face of uncertain and unpredictable futures. The book proposes a deep analysis of potential paths that the interaction between technology and natural ecosystems might forge, especially in a richly complex ecosystem like the Amazon.

The insights for the corporate sector are numerous. Its narrative serves as a mirror, reflecting the complexities organizations face while navigating the often turbulent waters of an increasingly accelerated world in transition. The financial collaboration with the Coordination of Indigenous Organizations of the Brazilian Amazon (COIAB) highlights the importance of an inclusive and ethical approach, aligning with today’s broader market goals of sustainability and corporate social responsibility.

The presentation also emphasized the importance of adopting a long-term vision, a strategic outlook that extends beyond the immediate horizon, delving into the long-term ramifications of our present corporate decisions. The reflective questioning proposed: “How can the interplay between narrative and action sow a regenerative legacy for the Amazon and beyond?” is an invitation to strategic reflection, urging business leaders to ponder their organizations’ trajectories in broader scenarios, including both social and environmental impacts.

Moreover, the presentation prompts deep reflection on

YEARS OF THE STUDIES FEDERATION

AND THE BEATLES!

Fig. 1 - Amazon 2050 presentation

the importance of cultivating collaborative and strategic partnerships with multiple stakeholders, from indigenous communities to governmental entities and NGOs. This narrative, intertwined with pragmatic analysis, serves as an invitation to reimagine the role of organizations in building more inclusive, diverse, and regenerative futures.

So here are some reflections and insights I’d like to share:

1. Long-Term Thinking: The discussions underscore the imperative of anticipating long-range perspectives that transcend corporate immediacy, inspiring a strategic vision that contemplates the socio-environmental legacy of organizations.

2. Sustainable Innovation: “Amazon 2050” narrative is a poignant reminder that innovation must be pursued through a sustainability lens, balancing technological aspirations with ESG responsibility.

3. Strategic Collaboration: The interaction with COIAB exemplifies the potential of cross-sector collaborations to generate positive and sustainable impact. This is a call for organizations to explore partnerships that reflect shared values and common goals.

4. Ethical Leadership: Future leaderships will be measured not only by economic success but by the ability to navigate ethical, social, and environmental complexities with integrity and insight.

5. Engagement with Multiple Stakeholders: Inclusive engagement with stakeholders from various societal sectors is crucial to cultivating holistic and robust solutions to emerging challenges.

6. Continuous Exploration: The world in transition demands a stance of continuous learning and curious exploration to uncover and adapt to the emerging dynamics shaping our corporate and social environment.

The invitation now is for business leaders to absorb, reflect, and act upon the lessons and insights from this gathering of professional futurists. With the future as our canvas, today’s choices and strategies have the potential to unleash impact waves that will reverberate through future generations. The commitment to responsible innovation, cross-sector collaboration, and ethical leadership are not just moral imperatives but prerequisites for long-term sustainability and success in the emerging complex global landscape.

In conclusion, the WFSF 2023 global conference not only celebrated five decades of debates and explorations of preferable futures but also catalyzed critical dialogue on the role and responsibility of business leaders in building preferable futures for organizations, society, and the planet. As we bid farewell to Paris and resume our usual activities, the echoes of “Amazon 2050” and the engaging discussions of the conference continue to reverberate, prompting ongoing evaluation and conscious evolution on the dynamic stage of the business world.

Fig. 2 – WFSF Conference Poster

books from Designer and Futurist Damien Lutz, Apple´s Mother Nature commercial

Fig. 3 - Amazon 2050 presentation abstract

Fig. 5 - Amazon Rainforest Google Search Data

Fig. 7 – Anthropocene Google Search Data

Fig. 9 – COIAB About Page

Fig. 6 - Amazon 2050 Book Data

Fig. 8 - Amazon 2050 Book description at Amazon.com

Fig. 10 - Amazon 2050 Book Preface, Life-Centered Design

Fig. 4 – World Economic Forum Strategic Intelligence Platform

Finally, I’d like to pose some questions to futures leaders around the world:

1. Innovation and Sustainability: How can our organizations balance the relentless pursuit of innovation with the imperative of sustainability? How can technology be orchestrated to strengthen, not undermine, the harmony between humanity and nature?

2. Strategic Partnerships: How can cross-sector alliances, like the partnership with COIAB, be cultivated and maximized to promote sustainable positive changes? How can these collaborations be structured to benefit all involved, including marginalized communities?

3. Ethical Leadership: In a world often driven by short-term interests and immediate profits, how can future leaders cultivate and demonstrate ethical leadership that prioritizes collective wellbeing and long-term sustainability?

4. Stakeholder Engagement: How can organizations foster genuine and inclusive engagement with a diverse range of stakeholders, ensuring that often-silenced voices are heard and valued in the decision-making process?

5. Continuous Learning: In the face of increasingly uncertain and complex futures, how can organizations cultivate a culture of continuous learning, adaptability, and resilience?

6. Socio-environmental Impact: How will today’s boardroom and council decisions affect future generations and the planet we inhabit? How can organizations measure and evaluate their impact in a holistic and responsible manner?

7. Exploring Liminalities: How can organizations explore the liminal spaces of uncertainty and transition to find new opportunities and paths for responsible innovation?

See you in the future! “ ”

E caso você ainda não conheça o livro “Amazônia 2050: a saga dos 3 mundos”, ele está disponível na Amazon. 20% das vendas são direcionados à Coordenação das Organizações Indígenas da Amazônia Brasileira (COIAB)

Fig. 11 - Amazon 2050 NFTs during Blockchain Rio event

Fig. 13 – Author´s Ancestry/Legacy

Fig. 15 – Author´s screenshot during Amazon 2050 presentation

Fig. 14 – Ailton Krenak indigenous leader´s books

Fig. 12 – Margaret Mead quote

THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY OF WASTEWATER AND FOOD

By Samista Jugwanth

THE vibration on her wrist turned to a shrill beep that she couldn’t ignore. Champa groaned and rubbed her eyes guiltily – she shouldn’t have fallen asleep on her shift – but it was a slow morning after a night out. Her wrist device flashed a code in amber – first warning. She rolled her chair into place, picked up a headset and had a gulp of cold coffee before donning her equipment. After retinal scan authentication, she flipped her mic into position and rasped in a voice still laced with sleep: “Yonke, open Works 386 in P&ID mode, and jump to Alarm 4521.” Yonke was the AI bot that process controllers used to remotely manage multiple wastewater and food production Works.

Within milliseconds, she could see the problem – the aquaculture pond was flashing amber – with multiple instrumentation tags reporting that a low oxygen level had just been triggered. This again! She switched to camera mode to confirm her suspicions and said, “Yonke,” to activate the voice recognition bot, “Call David, please.”

When David picked up, Champa continued: “Dave, how are you? … Nice… Well done! … No, we left late last night – probably shouldn’t have … Right, so the algae in the ponds are too dense again … Yeah, I know that’s the purpose of them – raising fish and creating fertiliser – but the nitrogen and phosphorus are causing too high eutrophication levels in the fishponds. It’s

cutting out the light and reducing the oxygen levels for the fish … No, Dave, it isn’t urgent – if you can get a team out there by lunchtime to clear away, it should be fine ... Okay ... Yes … Enjoy the day ahead.”

With that done, she decided to do a complete system scan: “Yonke, stay on camera mode, start from Camera 1.” She looked over the sewage entering the facility. Physical debris, including grit, was being separated from the sewage, washed and then conveyed to be sun dried using solar-reflective mirrors. Later, the dried residue would be crushed and added to grit to be sold as a construction material. All good here – no alarms.

“Yonke, Cameras 2 and 3, please.” – her view split into two. The primary sedimentation area seemed to have some spills on the floor. In this facility, the solids were settled out of the sewage, and because the sewage was still raw, the smell from the spills would be ripe. Champa sighed, “Yonke, please log a ticket for Laura Tempe – her team needs to wash down the primary sedimentation facility.”

“Okay, Yonke, P&ID mode - Digesting Facility ‘’, Champa said as her viewport went from real-time camera footage to a schematic highlighting all the instrumentation readings and alarms. She did this because the digestion processes were a lot more complex, and she couldn’t see if it was functioning

correctly using the cameras. In this space, the settled sludge would be sent to a series of high-rate thermophilic digesters to create biogas. Rails also brought organic waste from households, shops and restaurants to the digesters to improve the calorific value and biogas yield. After maximum gas was produced, the digested sludge would be mixed with garden and park waste before undergoing solar composting. The rich compost and the nutrient-dense water from the fishponds would fertilise the high-density farms planted around the Works.

Her wrist buzzed, and she quickly responded: “Yonke, accept call… Hi Laura… I’m good, thanks. You? … How can I help you? … Yes, I don’t know how it happened, but there is spillage in the primary sedimentation space, and you know that smells… I know…. I agree; whoever was responsible shouldn’t have left it… Okay, I will log a call to HQ to review the footage and see what went wrong… Sure, no problem. Have a good day.”

“Okay, Yonke, back to business. Switch to camera mode. Show me Cameras 7 and 8,” Champa muttered as she sipped her icy coffee. She was now looking at the bioreactors where the sewage was undergoing biological treatment before disinfection using ultraviolet light. The spent biological matter - including algae populations - used to treat the sewage was

separated and conveyed to be dehydrated in solar dryers. Its filamentous structure allowed it to be used as growth mats to enable thick creeper plants to grow on building facades - reducing the urban heat island effect. Champa made a mental note to remind herself to buy some mats to replace the damaged ones on her east-facing wall.

After the disinfected treated water left the wastewater part of the Works, it was filtered through a constructed wetland for tertiary treatment, creating a natural ecosystem to encourage local biodiversity. The filtered water then split into three streams: one for watering the farmlands and another for the aquaculture ponds where freshwater fish were sustainably bred, resulting in a food source and nutrient-dense fertiliser for the farmland. The third stream would be further treated to drinking water standards. Moving on to her favourite part, she grabbed her controller and gave the instruction, “Yonke, start-up Drone X31 – beginning log of farmland flyover. Initiate LiDAR and SWIR equipment.” She would fly over the Work’s surrounding farmland, recording plant vertical growth and density and ground moisture levels to check that the irrigation schedule was still effective.

The crops cultivated within the farmland are hardy; covered grow sheds are used for the more delicate fruit and vegetables. Warehousing, which was allocated for food processing, was

attached to the grow sheds. Having the farms and food processing facilities close to each other significantly reduced food wastage before distribution.

As Champa flew through her Works, she saw that her biogas holders were full. The biogas from the digesters was collected in these holders before being fed through quad-generators to produce heat to run the digesters, power for the factory and surrounding operations, refrigeration for produce, and carbon dioxide for food processing. If the holder was full, then at least one of these processes was not operating as expected – but she hadn’t received an alarm. She tapped her chin in thought – it must be an instrument not reading correctly. With a sigh, Champa cut her drone flight short and switched back to P&ID mode to troubleshoot the biogas system.

Note from the Author:

Even with high populations, harsh climatic events, and reduced area and resources, sufficient, nutritious food will still be available in the future. We think of a high-technology future, yet it is arguably more important that the generations that follow rearrange our current technology into systems that feed into each other, i.e., a circular economy. We need a society that doesn’t perceive waste – they must see it as resources in another form

Layout Artist: Jeremae Jumao-as

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