5 minute read
Erik F. Øverland
POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN COMPLEX SOCIETIES
By Erik F. Øverland
IN a world marked by increased complexity and non-reliable forecast methodologies, foresight and futures studies are getting more and more important for governments and political-administrative systems. In this fluctuating and rapidly changing world, we need to avoid being victims of ‘shorttermism’. Therefore governments need to strengthen their capacity to think futures in new and innovative ways. »
This is roughly how Dr Helge Braun, Angela Merkel’s former chief of staff, put it when he opened the 24th World Congress of the World Futures Studies Federation WFSF in Berlin on October 26 last year. That a prominent politician placed in the middle of the inferno of short-termism, the Prime Minister’s Office (Kanzleramt), is so clear in his message to change the art of policy development is indicative of the development we are in.
Helge Braun, who was Chancellor of the Chancellery in Merkel’s government, emphasises the importance of future thinking in politics and administration Photo Tobias Koch CC.
It is not just authors such as Nassim Taleb and his “black swans”, business advisers or researchers with special interests who are eager to put the future on the agenda in new ways. No, the revolution in futures thinking now seems to have reached the political government apparatus and the inner circles of the ministries in an ever-increasing number of countries and regions.
German Chancellery with future department
Two years ago, the German Chancellery established a separate department to assess the possible long-term consequences of impending political decisions. At the same time, it shall have a coordinating function vis-à-vis external think tanks, research environments, other ministries, underlying agencies and other socio-political high-thinker environments at home and abroad.
The Chancellery and other ministries have established sections and units that do the same in their respective policy areas in recent years.
And to ensure that this subject area is also subject to systematic competence development and injection, the competence centre for strategic foresight / strategic Vorausschau at the Bundesakademie für Sicherheitspolitik (national academy for security policy) has been given the task of developing and implementing comprehensive continuing education. The target group is ministry employees, employees in underlying agencies and selected research environments.
International trend
Germany is just one of many countries today moving in such a direction. We see a similar development in countries such as France, Great Britain, Singapore, China, Korea, several countries in Latin America, Sweden, Japan, Australia, the EU and, not least, in Finland.
Since Finland established the “Committee for the Future” in the Finnish Parliament when Finland had to reorganise after the shock of the fall of the wall - or more correctly - the fall of the Iron Curtain in the early 1990s, Finland has been both a driving force and an interesting reference for other countries. who want to use political foresight.
Why do they do this? Is it not just a matter of pressing the button on the projection machine and “cooling down” - and carving out the most likely futures first and foremost without going “detour” about uncertainty analyses, scenarios or early character analyses - to name a few of the tools foresight tradition at your disposal?
The question is, of course, timely, but even more timely is the answer given. It is first and foremost a matter of methodology not to bet everything on the famous one horse. Few countries have such a one-sided orientation towards projections as policy environments in Norway.
Many methods and approaches
Projection tools often live side by side with technology assessments, scenario analyses, horizon scanning and a number of other methodological approaches that take greater account of the fact that the future is actually quite uncertain. Model-based analysis based on historical data may be important. Still, now it seems that developing greater creativity, applying more imagination and thinking about the future in ways that better reflect uncertainties and complexity are increasingly in demand.
Future thinking based on other approaches and methods than projections is on the rise all over the world. Not least, the ongoing pandemic has demonstrated that conventional planning and conventional horizons of expectations are not enough and that politics and professions must be prepared to deal with unforeseen situations to a much greater extent.
When societal development is as unpredictable as it is now becoming, we need other forms of planning expertise. This is what is often called foresight or what has lately.
They have also been referred to as future competence or Futures Literacy in English. We find a certain indication of this if we google key concepts from future thinking. While the forecast was the big winner in 2010, concepts such as foresight, scenario, and futures studies have completely taken over.
What about Norway?
In Norway, we are also witnessing a certain shift today. Firstly, alternative economics subjects get more space, not least through the work that Rethinking Economics does, but also alternatives to projections are in demand more and more.
In the political-administrative apparatus in Norway, the Perspective Report dominates. However, its limitations now seem to be clearer. In addition to the classic study Norge2030 from the beginning of the 2000s, we today find initiatives in ministries such as the Ministry of Local Government and District Affairs (KDD), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (UD), the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (OED) and the Ministry of Education (KD).
KDD has asked the Ministries’ Security and Service Organization (DSS) to develop a competence development offer for foresight and non-projection-based future analyses for all employees in the ministries. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs considers the specific use of such techniques in, for example, development policy, while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has carried out scenario analyses both in the university and college sector and looks into competence policies. Other ministries are also in motion here.
But is everything just rosy?
Definitely not. As methods and techniques for policy development, the foresight approaches should also be further developed and specially adapted to a political-administrative landscape. Not least, the famous transition between heterogeneous foresight analysis (for example, scenario development) and the process toward concrete political recommendations and priorities should be carefully reviewed.
As a civil servant, you can not go to your minister and promote five scenarios and ask them to choose. No, this requires further development and professionalisation of the work with political foresight so that the result becomes relevant and fruitful for political decision-making processes.
Secondly, foresight thinking is well suited as an arena for high thinking and discussion of politically incorrect perspectives. Such an arena is essential for trying out new ideas, not least with a view to policy development. Significant work remains before the political-administrative apparatus will stimulate, recognise and concretely develop such an arena. But, one thing is for sure - if you want, the future can be phenomenally fun!
