Alireza Hejazi

LEARNING FROM TOMORROW

Book Review by

Leopold P. Mureithi

Co-Chair, Millennium Project Kenya Node

BART W. ÉDES has written a synthesis book, Learning from Tomorrow: Using Strategic Foresight to Prepare for the Next Big Disruption, published this year by Changemakers Books. In it, he has adopted a futures perspective to exemplify how this can be used in a variety of circumstances that are characterized by vulnerability, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguous (VUCA). Controllability of events diminishes with time -- the longer the time horizon, the greater the degree of flux; but the foresightable possibility is itself diminishing over time and disruptions are frequent. Think environmental crisis, wicked COVID-19 pandemic, and other shocks.

Besides fore- and back-matters, the book covers both the foundational underpinnings of futures studies (Chapter 1) and contains many examples of where these have been usefully applied for futures preparedness. The scope in organizations (Chapter 2) can be exemplified by the Shell company’s oil-price scenarios produced since 1971. Parenthetically, Shell cosponsored the Mount Fleur scenarios during 1991-1992 that sparked mass enthusiasm in South Africa and possibly averted a civil war (https://reospartners.com/wp-content/ uploads/old/Mont%20Fleur.pdf).

Internationally (Chapter 3), Asian Development Bank (ADB), published a report in April 2020 featuring case studies of futures thinking and foresight in several member states. In the post-pandemic world (Chapter 4), the interplay of the economy and COVID-19 is played out.

On the functionality of foresight, it is noted that “governments with strong central Foresight units [like Singapore] quickly turned their attention to the pandemic and its potential implications …. and in the process contributed to more robust policy-making” (pp. 47-48).

One enthuses the book’s call for widespread futures literacy, noting that “only about one-quarter of Fortune 500 firms practice Foresight in some capacity in-house” (p. 8). “The major obstacles … were lack of awareness about the need for Foresight, and lack of access to user-friendly Foresight products, tools, guides, and training” (p. 8). fortunately, “An increasing number of academic institutions are offering courses and academic credentials in Foresight” (pp. 8-9). Check if these outfits (https:// jfsdigital.org/2019/02/11/a-note-on-thestate-of-futures-preparedness/) include one near you.

Learning from Tomorrow is a short 97-page treatise that is an enganging introduction to futures studies and that can appeal to academicians, policy decision makers and the general readership alike. It is a primer on resilience and futures preparedness.