Financial Market Review for February 26 2018 The U.S Dollar goes into reverse this morning, while the Yen bounces in response to BoJ Governor Kuroda’s comments this morning. Draghi will be the area of focus this afternoon, with the economic calendar on the lighter side for the day. There were no material stats released through the Asian session this morning, leaving the markets to respond to the U.S session on Friday, which saw 10-year U.S Treasury yields ease back from Wednesday’s bounce. While there were no material stats, BoJ Governor Kuroda stirred the Yen, which had been down in early trade, by standing by the BoJ’s view that there would be no shift in the Bank’s current policy stance and that it would continue to target 2% inflation. The Yen was up 0.36% to ¥106.50 against the Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar up 0.42% to $0.7877 and the Kiwi Dollar up 0.45% to $0.7335. In the equity markets, the Nikkei and ASX200 closed out the day with 1.19% and 0.71% gains, while the Hang Seng and CSI300 were up 0.79% and 1.33% respectively, supported by Friday’s gains in the U.S markets and the U.S futures market this morning, with the Dow mini up 114 points at the time of writing. There are no material stats scheduled for release during the European session today that can provide direction for the EUR, leaving the EUR in than hands of ECB President Draghi, who is scheduled to speak later this afternoon and market sentiment towards this coming Sunday’s Italian General Election and likely outcome of the SDP party ballot on whether to go ahead with the Grand Coalition under the terms agreed. Ahead next Sunday’s Ballot result announcement, the CDU Party are scheduled to meet today to approve the terms of the coalition, with a favorable outcome leaving the SDP ballot as the last piece of the coalition jigsaw and a Merkel 4th term. At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.24% to $1.2325, with Draghi likely to be the only major influence on the EUR later this afternoon. For the Pound, economic data out of the UK this morning is limited to mortgage approval figures that are unlikely to have a material impact on the Pound. Sentiment towards Brexit has turned a corner ahead of next month’s return to the negotiating table, with the markets expecting the British government to garner both, a favorable transition agreement and a trade agreement. Politics and Brexit will certainly take centre stage this week, with both the British Prime Minister and opposition party leader scheduled to deliver speeches. The clarity from the UK side will provide some direction for the markets, but it is an altogether different question whether the EU will be agreeable to the British negotiators demands. At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.40% to $1.4040, with MPC member Cunliffe’s speech, scheduled for later this evening needing, one to look out for on a relatively quiet day on the calendar. Across the Pond, economic data is limited to January’s new home sales, which should provide some support to the Dollar this afternoon, though FOMC member Bullard could dampen any upward moves should he continue to downplay any shift in policy in the wake of the recent uptick in inflation.
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Financial Market Review for February 26 2018 The Dollar Spot Index was down 0.27% in what is a relatively quiet start to a very busy week from an economic data perspective, with data scheduled for the week including consumer confidence and the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index figures, wage growth and nonfarm payroll numbers. Oil prices steadied on Monday after hitting their highest level in nearly three weeks, supported by comments from top oil exporter Saudi Arabia that it would continue to curb shipments in line with the OPEC-led effort to cut global supplies. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery was up 4 cents at $63.59 a barrel by 0804 GMT after rising 3 percent last week. London Brent crude slipped 3 cents to $67.28 a barrel, after climbing almost 4 percent last week. Both benchmarks earlier hit their highest since Feb. 7. Prices were supported after Saudi Arabian oil minister Khalid al-Falih on Saturday said the country’s crude production in January-March would be well below output caps, with exports averaging below 7 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia hopes OPEC and its allies will be able to relax production curbs next year and create a permanent framework to stabilize oil markets after the current supply cut deal ends this year, Falih added. U.S. energy companies last week added one oil rig, the fifth weekly increase in a row, bringing the total count up to 799, the highest level since April 2015, Baker Hughes energy services firm said on Friday. Hedge funds and money managers upped their bullish wagers on U.S. crude oil for the first time in four weeks, data showed on Friday. Finally in the US, Investors are starting to doubt whether they can count on the protective embrace of an accommodative U.S. central bank when markets go haywire. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has said little about the sharp fall in Wall Street stocks this month, besides offering the platitude at his swearing-in ceremony last week that “we will remain alert to any developing risks to financial stability.” But the spotlight will be on the new Fed chair next week when he faces questions from both houses of the U.S. Congress in semi-annual testimony starting on Tuesday, and his audience will include investors who unceremoniously greeted his early tenure with one of the fastest 10.0 percent falls in Wall Street stocks in history earlier this month. The notion that the Fed would always be there to prop up shell-shocked markets prompted the notion of a Fed “put” option under three prior Fed leaders - Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan. The term is a reference to the hedging strategy of using a put option to guarantee an investor a sale at a preset price to limit losses.
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Financial Market Review for February 26 2018 While the Fed did not buy stocks or sell options in response to the 2007-2009 financial crisis, it did push short-term interest rates to historic lows and bought bonds, driving down yields. Starved for yield in recent years, investors were forced into the stock market, driving up equity valuations, thanks to the Fed’s policies. View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events.
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