Willy Kahl LBI REALTY GROUP, Broker of Record-Bayfront Specialist 1919 Long Beach Blvd., Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 willykahl@gmail.com www.LBIsales.com Office (609) 494-8900
Fax (609) 494-8901
LBI BAYFRONT NEWSLETTER 2014 MID YEAR BAYFRONT STUDY
Features: Single Family Bayfront Values
Bayfront Single Family Sales Data LBI is Back in Action
Sales Volume has Great Start Supply vs. Demand Chart Featured Properties 27 Years of Waterfront Analysis
This study has been created for Long Beach Island homeowners and buyers as a guide to evaluate the current market values of single-family Bayfront properties on Long Beach Island. I hope this information is of value to you! Willy Kahl
Values of Single Family Bayfront Properties Bayfront data varies so much that I have computed a more leveraged curve by calculating the price per foot of bay frontage for single family bayfront properties and maximizing water frontage to 150 feet per lot (some lots are double or triple edged on peninsulas, and a maximum was needed for a more accurate average). Using this calculation, in 2012 the average bayfront sale was $1,535,751. In 2013 average price (based on linear foot) increased to $1,864,899. So far this year, the North end has suffered with sale prices. Many tear downs have sold for land value in North Beach, Harvey Cedars, Loveladies and Barnegat Light during the first half of 2014. The North end has averaged over $2.2 million since 2004 but is down to below $1.5 million this first half of 2014. Hence with the North end having nine of the thirteen sales this half, our all around average in general is down. The average price per foot so far this year is $1,583,865. To determine bayfront property value the following numbers should be multiplied by the bayfront footage. The average sale prices per linear foot each year are as follows: $19,697 in 2004, $26,818 in 2005, $22,318 in 2006, $23,933 in 2007, $22,659 for 2008, $17,578 for 2009, $20,510 for 2010, $22,524 for 2011 and back to $18,960 for 2012 back up to $23,023 per linear foot for 2013, and due to many tear downs down to $19,041 this first half of 2014. Of course, this average varies from town-to-town and also depends on condition of home and depth of lot. To calculate the current value of an average bayfront property by linear feet multiply the amount of bayfront feet by $23,023 if newer and in good condition or $19,041 if older. From 2004 to present the average linear foot calculates to 83.2 feet of bay frontage per sale (maximum of 150’ for peninsulas). For 2013 the average price is $23,023 x 73 = 1,680,679. The average price of a bayfront sale in 2012 was $1,744,320 but those lots averaged 92' of bay frontage creating a linear per foot sale of $18,960. This year the average so far is $19,041 x 83.1818 ft. = $1,583,865. 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2014 have proven to have increasing sales activity and a higher supply/demand ratio than in 2009. 2013 was a little slow, mostly due to Sandy. It appears the value of bayfront properties have leveled off and may even have gained slightly in value. Sale prices vary because the variables of each property sold differ each year. In 2005, many bayfront homes that sold were new construction which brought higher than expected values. In 2006, the majority of bayfront properties that sold were teardowns which created a decline in values. In 2009, prices were lower than expected due to numerous corner lot sales with more than 125’ on the bay and an average age exceeding 30 years (many were teardowns). In both 2010 and 2011, smaller lots with an average of 78.5 feet on the bayfront sold which actually brought average values up. In 2013, many North end properties sold (10 out of the 18 sales were in North Beach, Harvey Cedars, Loveladies, and Barnegat Light) bringing a slightly inflated average sales price. So far this year many tear downs on the North end brought values down.
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LB I B A Y FR O NT NE WS LE T T E R
M ID 2 0 1 4
MID 2014 BAYFRONT SALES from South to North TOWN SOUTH NORTH BEACH HAVEN
ADDRESS
1912 Bay Terrace
DATE
LIST
SOLD
PRICE $
3/14/14
2 SOLD IN
SELL $/ FEET AGE ASSESS
PRICE $ LIST$ WTR
2,699,000 2,450,000 91%
BUILD $
80
7
975,000 99%
75
52
SOUTH
1,839,450 1,712,500 93%
78
BRIGHTON BEACH 32 W. 85th St. 4/28/14 2014 AVG
SELL
979,900
ASSESS LAND $
ASSESS SELL$/ #BEDR #BATH ASTOTAL$ SESS$
775,400 1,066,500 1,841,900
1.33
5.00
4.50
987,500 1,072,500
0.91
4.00
2.00
30
430,200 1,027,000 1,457,200
1.18
4.50
3.25
85,000
CENTER BRANT BEACH
5112-C LBB
2/21/14
2,889,000 2,770,000 96%
110
5
1,242,500 1,185,000 2,427,500
1.14
5.00
5.00
BRANT BEACH
3608C W. LBB 4/9/14 2317 Central Ave. 5/30/14 CEN3 SOLD IN TER
1,389,000 1,275,000 92%
100
28
221,500 1,185,000 1,406,500
0.91
4.00
3.00
810,000 98%
80
54
157,900
563,000
1.12
3.00
3.00
1,701,000 1,618,333 95%
97
29
540,633
977,667 1,518,300
1.07
4.00
3.67
4/22/14
2,000,000 1,860,000 93%
100
64
131,481 1,274,510 1,405,991
1.32
5.00
3.00
1050E LBB 5624 Holly Ave. 46 Buckingham Ave. 19 Cedars Ave. 15 Cedars Ave.
3/29/14
2,595,000 2,350,000 91%
100
20
820,875 1,380,471 2,201,346
1.07
4.00
3.50
5/23/14
1,100,000
925,000 84%
40
61
69,348 1,069,450 1,138,798
0.81
4.00
1.50
6/6/14
1,995,000 1,850,000 93%
90
32
505,500
919,000 1,424,500
1.30
4.00
3.50
765,000 96%
25
8
308,873
363,541
672,414
1.14
4.00
3.00
5/23/14
1,195,000 1,200,000 100%
50
13
467,800
569,000 1,036,800
1.16
4.00
3.50
50F LBB
2/5/14
1,995,000 1,937,500 97%
120
30
443,400 1,507,500 1,950,900
0.99
6.00
4.50
4D W. LBB
5/29/14
1,400,000 1,300,000 93%
105
51
140,800
853,100
993,900
1.31
4.00
3.00
34 Antioch Rd. 2/12/14
1,295,000 1,125,000 87%
60
22
335,690
942,761 1,278,451
0.88
3.00
2.50
1,596,889 1,479,167 93%
77
33
358,196
986,593 1,344,789
1.10
4.22
3.11
1,653,850 1,542,321 93%
81
32
407,576
990,452 1,398,029
1.10
4.21
3.25
SHIP BOTTOM 2014 AVG
825,000
720,900
NORTH NORTH BEACH NORTH BEACH HARVEY CEADRS HARVEY CEDARS HARVEY CEDARS HARVEY CEDARS LOVELADIES LOVELADIES HIGH BAR HARBOR 2014 AVG
MID 2014 AVG LBI
113 Roxie Ave.
9 SOLD IN
3/6/14
NORTH
MID 14 SOLD IN 2014
797,000
For properties currently available for sale and for those under contract, please feel free to call me or visit www.lbisales.com. I would be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing computer detailed reports and/or generate automatic updates with your personal criteria!
LBI is Back in Full Action The summer of 2013 was difficult for both homeowners and businesses on LBI since many properties affected by Hurricane Sandy were still being renovated or rebuilt. The good news is that LBI is coming to life again this summer of 2014, evident by the large number of properties being elevated, renovated or completely rebuilt and the many businesses that are reopening. The beaches are filled with vacationers enjoying all that summer offers here on our 18 miles of white sand with clean warm waters and sunny, carefree days. Business owners are reporting an increase in revenue as many restaurants and shops are once again filled with patrons. With so much to offer to residents and visitors alike, it is encouraging to see that our beautiful Island is once again a favorite vacation destination. Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Jersey Shore Regional Multiple Listing Service Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Egon Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This newsletter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Egon Willy Kahl. ©
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LB I B A Y FR O NT NE WS LE T T E R
MID 2014
Bayfront Sales Volume is Having a Great Start this 1st Half So far this year, we have had 14 bayfront sales in the first 6 months of 2014. There were 18 bayfront single family home sales during the entire 2013 year. There were a total of 21 Bayfront Single family home sales in 2012, 17 single family bayfront sales in 2011, 23 in 2010, and 16 total sales in 2009. Currently there are five more bayfront single family homes under contract. However, the number of single family bayfront properties for sale (supply) has increased from 42 average in 2013 to currently 52.. I calculate our supply to demand curve by dividing the number of bayfront properties sold in the latest half year period by the amount of bayfront properties currently for sale. These are two key factors to prices stabilizing with values on the rise in the near future. So far this 1st half, our supply vs. demand ration is .27. For 2013 our supply vs. demand ratio was .22. The 2012 year's supply to demand ratio was .25 compared to 2011 ratio of .19. This is slightly better than in 2009 which was one of the lowest with a supply vs. demand ratio of 0.17. I feel this ratio will continue to gain as time goes on and sales volume increases. Trends relating to bayfront and oceanfront appreciation and depreciation are similar. I have oceanfront data as far back as 1992 and bayfront data beginning in 2004. During 2002 supply vs. demand ratio was the highest in 21 years at 1.09 for oceanfront sales. Our record low of 15 oceanfront homes available on the market was in 2002. Our high was 101 oceanfront homes available in 1993. There are approximately 1100 oceanfront homes and 1000 bayfront homes on LBI. Oceanfront sales are showing us a quicker recovery and I believe bayfront sales should follow soon! BAYFRONT SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE
60
1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00
50 40 30 20
10 0 1ST 2ND 1ST 2ND 1ST 2ND 1ST 2ND 1ST 2ND 1ST 2ND 1ST 2ND 1ST '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11 SOLD
2nd '11
1st 12
2nd 12
1st 13
2nd 13
1st 14
AVAIL.
FEATURED PROPERTIES
BRANT BEACH BAYFRONT On an oversized lot overlooking the bay with stunning panoramic views and sunsets. Spacious master bedroom with full master bath. Two additional bedrooms. Oversized great room plus an office or fourth bedroom. Beautifully landscaped. Large bayfront deck featuring a hot tub, outdoor bar and dining overlooking a deep water large dock with riparian grant. Vinyl Bulkhead. Riparian Grant. $999,900.
SHIP BOTTOM BAYFRONT Completely renovated Bayfront Ranch, open living kitchen dining area, 3 bedrooms, two full baths, Cathedral ceilings. Renovations include new kitchen, appliances, baths, flooring, decks, vinyl siding, windows, condensers, and furnace. Beautifully landscaped, 50 on the bay, bulkheaded and deeded Riparian Grant. Finished 1168 sq. foot garage, Sunsets All Year Long - Spectacular Views! $849,900.
BEACH HAVEN PARK BAYFRONT Oversized 11,000+ sq. ft. Bayfront lot! Tremendous Views, Nice deep water sheltered dock with Riparian Grant. Sunsets galore from this bayfront like location, with a quick walk to the ocean. Large cape has been gutted and remediated and being sold "as is", in ground pool is also "as is", rebuild or design your new Beach House on the bay! $1,399,000.
FIRST CLASS PRESORT MAIL U.S. POSTAGE PAID TOMS RIVER, NJ PERMIT NO. 77
Willy Kahl’s Bayfront Newsletter Egon Willy Kahl / Broker of Record LBI Realty Group 1919 Long Beach Blvd. Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 EMAIL: WILLYKAHL@GMAIL.COM Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901
WWW.LBISALES.COM
Dependable Bayfront Data Enclosed! For properties currently available for sale and those under contract, please feel free to call or email me. I’ll be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports!
Dependable Bayfront Data Enclosed! 27 YEARS OF LBI WATERFRONT DATA ANALYSIS In 1987, the Waterfront sales market had peaked on LBI. Six and seven years later ,I was selling waterfront homes for approximately 25% less than the 1987 climatic sales market. Then Waterfront land began appreciating slowly from 1992 to 1998. In that time period, the average waterfront home increased a total of 24%. Over the next seven years (1999-2006), they increased another 329% - bringing total appreciation up 353% from the low of 1992 to the high of 2006! The average oceanfront value in 1992 was $553,844 and had peaked in 2006 to $$2,508,891. (Multiplied by 453%, subtracting the initial price brings us up 353%). I feel history is repeating itself with approximate timing, appreciation & depreciation. We have already experienced the seven or so years of a depreciating LBI home sales market from the 2006 peak. From the peak, values were down approximately 20% on oceanfront and approximately 30% on bayfronts. Oceanfronts are slowly going back up in value and bayfronts should follow soon . Most Buyers are more likely to purchase a property if the Seller is asking a fair price reflective of today’s market value. These buyers are excited that they are able to afford a vacation home on LBI! With attractive mortgage interest rates and competitive asking prices, along with a variety of properties to choose from, it’s a great time to buy or sell on LBI!
Get the LBI Bayfront Newsletter before it hits the press! Please e-mail Willy Kahl at willykahl@gmail.com and tell him you prefer these newsletters via e-mail today!