Egon Willy Kahl L B I R e a l t y G r o u p , O wn e r / B r o k er — O c e a n f r o n t S p e c i a l i s t 1 9 1 9 L o n g B e a c h B l vd . , S h i p B o t t o m , NJ 0 8 0 0 8
Cell (609) 709-1020 Office (609) 494—8900
Fax (609) 494-8901
wi l l yk a h l @ g m a i l . c o m , we b s i t e : w w w. L B I s a l e s . c o m
LBI BAYFRONT NEWSLETTER MID YEAR 2011 BAYFRONT STUDY • • •
Features: Values of Bayront Properties LBI Single Family Bayfront Sales Spreadsheet Average Sales Price per Foot Chart
• • • • •
Property Searches Supply vs. Demand Curve Supply vs. Demand Chart Featured Properties Emails -Faster & Preferred
This study has been created for Long Beach Island homeowners and buyers as a guide to evaluate the current market values of single-family Bayfront properties on Long Beach Island. I hope this information is of value to you! Egon Willy Kahl
Values of Single Family Bayfront Properties Up Approximately 396% since 1992 Bayfront data varies so much that I have computed a more leveraged curve by calculating the price per foot of bay frontage for single family bayfront properties. To see how much a bayfront home is valued, the following numbers should be multiplied by the bayfront footage. My data shows that values of bayfront properties are higher now than back in 2004, based on average sales per linear foot. The average sale prices per linear foot each year are as follows: $19,697 in 2004, $26,818 in 2005, $22,318 in 2006, $23,933 in 2007, $22,659 for 2008, $17,578 for 2009, $20,510 for 2010 and $21,055 for this first half of 2011. Of course, this average varies from town-to-town, condition of home, and depth of lot. To calculate the current value of an average bayfront property, multiply the amount of bayfront feet by $21,055. From 2004 to present, the average linear foot calculates to 84.13 feet of bay frontage per sale (maximum of 150’ for peninsulas), so the average price this year is $1,771,357 ($21,055 X 84.13 ft.). After calculating Bayfront values since 2004, and oceanfront values since 1992, I have noticed that LBI Bayfront and Oceanfront Homes appreciate at approximately the same levels. The average sale price of a single family oceanfront property on LBI has risen 396% since 1992! I noticed that bayfront and oceanfront properties go up in value at approximately the same rate. This means the same bayfront home purchased for $500,000 in 1992 is valued today at $1,980,000! This holds true despite a depressed market. 2010 and thus far 2011 have proven to have increasing sales activity and a higher supply/demand ratio than in 2009, and it appears the value of bayfront properties may be leveling off. The average sale price of bayfront properties have decreased in value approximately 21.5% since the peak. The yearly sale prices vary more than anticipated, since the class of bayfront properties sold differs every year. In 2005, many bayfront homes that sold were new construction, bringing higher than expected values. In 2006, the majority of bayfront properties that sold were teardowns, creating a decline in values. In 2009, prices were lower than expected due to many corner lot sales with more than 125’ on the bay and an older average age of 30 (many teardowns). These uneven values year to year are due to differences of classes. The graph on page 2 shows us these new values and how they increased and then slightly decreased over the years. The current frontage average along the bay is 84.13 feet, which includes all of the bayfront sales since 2004. For greater detail of oceanfront homes that have sold this year, see the next page of this report which is a spreadsheet created from the south end to the north end of L.B.I. For properties currently available for sale and for those under contract, please feel free to call me or visit www.lbisales.com. I would be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing computer detailed reports and/or generate automatic updates with your personal criteria.
MID YEAR 2011
PAGE 2
LB I B A Y F R O N T N E WS LE T T E R
LBI MID 2011 BAYFRONT SALES from South to North TOWN
ADDRESS
SOUTH HAVEN BEACH BEACH HAVEN PARK 2011 MID AVG
11404 Sunst Terrace 10512 LBB
DATE
LIST
SELL
SELL FEET AGE AS- ASSESS ASSESS SELL$/ #BEDR. #BATH $/ SESS SOLD PRICE $ PRICE $ LIST$ WTR BUILD $ LAND $ TOTAL$ ASSESS $ 3/1/11 1,399,000 1,300,000 93% 73 17 291,300 971,700 1,263,000 1.03 4.00 3.00 4/29/11 2,595,000 2,525,000 97%
2 SOLD IN SOUTH
1,997,000 1,912,500 96%
60
7
1.22
5.00
6.00
12
1,076,80 1,000,000 2,076,800 0 684,050 985,850 1,669,900
67
1.15
4.50
4.50
CENTER BRANT BEACH
3900 LBB
5/20/11
96%
40
19
294,000 730,800 1,024,800
0.84
4.00
2.50
SHIP BOTTOM
17 Robert Dr.
4/15/11 1,350,000 1,175,000 87%
62
21
494,500 654,500 1,149,000
1.02
4.00
3.00
312 N. 14th 3/7/11 1,988,000 1,900,000 96% St. 3 SOLD IN CENTER 1,412,333 1,312,667 93%
100
27
408,800 950,800 1,359,600
1.40
4.00
2.50
67
22
399,100 778,700 1,177,800
1.11
4.00
2.67
5/13/11 3,995,000 3,650,000 91%
130
1
308,300 1,671,000 1,979,300
1.84
6.00
5.50
3/25/11 1,875,000 1,901,000 101%
79
12
547,700 840,000 1,387,700
1.37
4.00
3.00
HIGH BAR HARBOR 123 Arnold 4/14/11 925,000 835,000 90% Blvd. 2011 MID AVG 3 SOLD IN NORTH 2,265,000 2,128,667 94%
128
30
150,100 472,500
622,600
1.34
4.00
2.00
112
14
335,367 994,500 1,329,867
1.60
4.67
3.50
84
17
446,438 911,413 1,357,850
1.30
4.38
3.44
SURF CITY 2011 MID AVG
899,000
863,000
NORTH LOVELADIES
63 Bayview Ave. HIGH BAR HARBOR 62 Butler Rd.
2011 MID AVG LBI
8 SOLD IN MID 2011 1,878,250 1,768,625 94%
BAYFRONT AVERAGE SALE PRICE 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2004
2005 SOUTH
2006 CENTER
2007 NORTH
2008 AVG. Price
2009
2010
1st 2011
Price/avg.ft.
LBI Property Searches-Best Deals Personalized For You I would be happy to set you up with automatic updates on LBI properties that interest you most. E-mail me at willykahl@gmail.com with the answer to any or all of the following: Type of home: (Residential, Duplex, Condo, Vacant Land) Location: (Oceanside, Bayside, Oceanfront, Bayfront, Lagoonfront, Waterfront) Towns: (Barnegat Light, Loveladies, Harvey Cedars, North Beach, Surf City, Ship Bottom, Brant Beach, …North Beach Haven, Beach Haven, Holgate) Minimum Number of Bedrooms, Minimum Number of Bathrooms, Age, Price Range, Minimum Square Feet of home Feel free to add more items you would like I’ll set you up with automatic e-mails right away!
M ID YE A R 2 0 1 1
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LB I B A Y F R O N T N E WS LE T T E R
SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE ANALYSIS So far this year, there have been only 8 bayfront single family home sales. There were 23 bayfront sales in 2010 – many more than the 16 sales in 2009! The number of bayfronts for sale has increased from 40 to 50. These are two key factors to prices leveling and perhaps soon to be slowly climbing. This year, our new supply vs. demand ratio is .16 ( 2010 was .21 for the 1st half and .41 for the second half). This is comparable to 2009, which was one of the worst, with a supply vs. demand ratio of 0.17. Trends on bayfront and oceanfront appreciation and depreciation are similar. I have oceanfront data as far back as 1992 and bayfront data beginning in 2004. During 2002, supply vs. demand ratio was the highest in 21 years at 1.09 for oceanfront sales. Our record low of 15 oceanfront homes available on the market was in 2002. Our high was 101 oceanfront homes available in 1993. There are approximately 1100 oceanfront homes and 1000 bayfront homes on LBI. Oceanfront sales are showing us a quicker recovery, and bayfront sales should follow soon! Simple economics states that if there is an abundance of a product (bayfront homes) and few consumers (Buyers) values will decline. It is when we reach an equal number of Buyers and Sellers that values become stable. When the product is scarce and the demand is high values increase.
BAYFRONT SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1ST '04 2ND 1ST '05 2ND 1ST '06 2ND 1ST '07 2ND 1ST '08 2ND 1ST '09 2ND 1ST '10 2ND 1ST '11 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 SOLD
AVAIL.
DEM/SUP
BAYFRONT—Under Contract Panoramic bay views from this bayfront reversed living home. Includes a deep water riparian grant with 100 dock ideal for the exceptionally large boat. Oversized lot ideal for consideration of future construction of a seashore retreat including a guesthouse and pool!
OCEANFRONT—Just Sold Seventy Feet on the ocean with breathtaking views throughout, this home features all of the latest and greatest amenities, plus wrap around decks on each level and multilevel rooftop deck with elevator! Reversed living offers views galore from the spacious living, kitchen, dining areas. Kitchen features include granite tops with tiled backsplash, sub-zero refrigerator, Viking oven, and hardwood floors. The living area has an oversized granite wet bar with mini fridge & wine storage, gas fireplace, plasma TV with surround sound. A second family/entertainment room with surround sound could easily convert to a fifth bedroom. The middle level consists of two master suites, one with double sinks and walk in closet. Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Jersey Shore Regional Multiple Listing Service Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Egon Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This newsletter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Egon Willy Kahl. ©
FIRST CLASS PRESORTED U.S. POSTAGE PAID TOMS RIVER, NJ PERMIT NO. 77
Willy Kahl’s Bayfront Newsletter Egon Willy Kahl / Broker of Record LBI Realty Group 1919 Long Beach Blvd. Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901 EMAIL: WILLYKAHL@GMAIL.COM
WWW.LBISALES.COM
Dependable Bayfront Data Enclosed! For properties currently available for sale and those under contract, please feel free to call me. I’ll be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports!
Dependable Bayfront Data Enclosed! 80 feet on the Oceanfront For Sale– Just Listed 80 feet of prime oceanfront in Surf City bordering North Beach. A premier Surf City location with breathtaking views! Existing house is situated on the oceanfront building line and offers magnificent unobstructed views. Application in process for CAFRA permit to construct a large oceanfront home with oversized eastern and southern decks. Over sized lot includes 80 feet of ocean frontage with 200 feet of depth. Existing classic beach house features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, wraparound decks on east and south sides, brick wood burning fireplace, hardwood floors and an oversized screened porch. $1,799,000.
E-Mails -Highly Preferred Get the LBI Bayfront Newsletter before they hit the press! Willy Kahl prefers e-mailing you these newsletters. They come out twice a year, and your e-mail address will remain confidential. Please e-mail Willy Kahl at
willykahl@gmail.com and tell him you prefer these newsletters via e-mail today!