Willy Kahl LBI REALTY GROUP, Broker of Record-Waterfront Specialist 1919 Long Beach Blvd., Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 willykahl@gmail.com www.LBIsales.com Office (609) 494-8900
Fax (609) 494-8901
LBI BAYFRONT NEWSLETTER MID YEAR 2012 BAYFRONT STUDY Features: Bayfront Sales Volume Continues to Increase and Supply vs. Demand Curve Values of Single Family Bayfront Properties Average Sale Price Chart
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LBI Single Family Bayfront Sales Spreadsheet Featured Properties Mortgage Rate Low Our Growing team Healthcare Laws Surtax
This study has been created for Long Beach Island homeowners and buyers as a guide to evaluate the current market values of single-family Bayfront properties on Long Beach Island. I hope this information is of value to you!
Willy Kahl
Bayfront Sales Volume Continue to Increase since 2009 2012 is off to a great start, with 12 bayfront sales, and provided that sales continue at this rate, there will be 24 bayfront sales this year. 2011 has proven to be a fair year for sales with a total of 17 bayfront sales. In 2010, there were 23 bayfront sales – many more than the 16 sales in 2009! The number of single family bayfront homes for sale is back up to 50 from 41. These are two key factors to prices leveling and perhaps soon to be slowly climbing. So far this year our supply to demand ratio is 0.24. Last year, supply vs. demand ratio was 0.19 ( 2010 was 0.21 for the 1st half and 0.41 for the second half). This is slightly better then 2009, which was one of the worst, with a supply vs. demand ratio of 0.17. Trends on bayfront and oceanfront appreciation and depreciation are similar. I have oceanfront data as far back as 1992 and bayfront data beginning in 2004. During 2002, supply vs. demand ratio was the highest in 21 years at 1.09 for oceanfront sales. Our record low of 15 oceanfront homes available on the market was in 2002. Our high was 101 oceanfront homes available in 1993. There are approximately 1100 oceanfront homes and 1000 bayfront homes on LBI. Oceanfront sales are showing us a quicker recovery, and bayfront sales should follow soon! BAYFRONT SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE
60
1.00
50
0.80
40
0.60
30 0.40
20
0.20
10 0
0.00 1ST '04
2ND '04
1ST '05
2ND '05
1ST '06
2ND '06
1ST '07
2ND '07
SOLD
1ST '08
2ND '08
1ST '09
2ND '09
1ST '10
2ND '10
1ST '11
2nd 1st '12 '11
AVAIL.
Get the LBI Bayfront Newsletter before it hits the press! Please e-mail Willy Kahl at willykahl@gmail.com and tell him you prefer these newsletters via e-mail today!
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LB I B A Y F R O N T N E WS LE T T E R
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Values of Single Family Bayfront Properties Bayfront sales and sales in general on LBI are better than most other regions in the United States. With property values in many areas of our country plummeting over 50% since the 2005 peak, LBI waterfront values have only decreased an average of 17- 20% since the 2005 record highs. So far this year, the average bayfront sale is $1,838,792. This is up 2% since last year, however many properties recently sold have been on the North end and were newer then previous years. The average bayfront property sold had 85 linear feet on the bay. When we add the linear feet calculation in, we are down by 4% from last year. Bayfront data varies so much that I have computed a more leveraged curve by calculating the price per foot of bay frontage for single family bayfront properties. To see how much a bayfront home is valued, the following numbers should be multiplied by the bayfront footage. My data shows that values of bayfront properties are higher now than back in 2004, based on average sales per linear foot. The average sale prices per linear foot each year are as follows: $19,697 in 2004, $26,818 in 2005, $22,318 in 2006, $23,933 in 2007, $22,659 for 2008, $17,578 for 2009, $20,510 for 2010, $22,524 for 2011 and so far $21,633. Of course, this average varies from town-to-town, condition of home, and depth of lot. To calculate the current value of an average bayfront property by linear feet, multiply the amount of bayfront feet by $21,633. From 2004 to present, the average linear foot calculates to 83.78 feet of bay frontage per sale (maximum of 150 feet for peninsulas). So far this year, the linear price is $21,633 x 85 = $1,812,352. After calculating Bayfront values since 2004, and oceanfront values since 1992, I have noticed that LBI Bayfront and Waterfront Homes appreciate at approximately the same levels. 2010, 2011, and so far this year have proven to have increasing sales activity and a higher supply/demand ratio than in 2009, and it appears the value of bayfront properties may be leveling off. The average sale price of bayfront properties have decreased in value about 20% since the peak. The yearly sale prices vary more than anticipated, since the class of bayfront properties sold differs every year. In 2005, many bayfront homes that sold were new construction, bringing higher than expected values. In 2006, the majority of bayfront properties that sold were teardowns, creating a decline in values. In 2009, prices were lower than expected due to many corner lot sales with more than 125 feet on the bay and an older average age of 30 years (many teardowns). These uneven values year to year are due to differences of classes. For greater detail of bayfront homes that have sold this year, see the next page of this report which is a spreadsheet created from the south end to the north end of L.B.I.
BAYFRONT AVERAGE SALE PRICE 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000
SOUTH
2,000,000
CENTER NORTH
1,500,000
AVG. Price
1,000,000
Price/avg.ft.
500,000 0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
MID 2012
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LB I B A Y F R O N T N E WS LE T T E R
SUMMER 2012
MID YEAR 2012 BAYFRONT SALES from South to North TOWN
ADDRESS
SOUTH
DATE SOLD
LIST
SELL
SELL $/ FEET AGE ASSESS ASSESS
PRICE $ PRICE $ LIST$ WTR
SPRAY BEACH 2422 LBB 4/5/12 1,195,000 998,000 84% 121 W. indiBEACH HAVEN ana Ave. TERRACE (129th) 6/12/12 2,895,000 2,757,500 95% 11310 Sunset 5/24/12 1,150,000 1,080,000 94% HAVEN BEACH Terrace MID 2012 AVG
3 SOLD IN SOUTH 1,746,667 1,611,833 92%
BUILD $
LAND $
ASSESS TOTAL$
SELL$/ #BEDR. #BATH ASSESS$
81
10
525,200
623,700 1,148,900
0.87
5.00
3.50
100
11
2,288,300
945,000 3,233,300
0.85
7.00
5.00
60
62
86,800
869,000
955,800
1.13
4.00
3.00
80
28
966,767
812,567
1,779,333
0.91
5.33
3.83
CENTER BRANT BEACH 4910 LBB
4/13/12 1,199,000
990,000 83%
50
31
172,200
790,000
962,200
1.03
3.00
2.00
BRANT BEACH 3500 LBB 2409 W. CenSHIP BOTTOM tral Ave.
3/9/12 1,250,000
985,000 79%
100
31
296,400 1,185,000
1,481,400
0.66
4.00
2.50
6/6/12
749,000
700,000 93%
50
72
178,100
425,000
603,100
1.16
3.00
1.00
3 SOLD IN CENTER 1,066,000
891,667 84%
67
45
215,567
800,000
1,015,567
0.88
3.33
1.83
5/4/12 3,295,000 3,200,000 97%
100
6
1,353,100 1,230,000
2,583,100
1.24
5.00
7.00
3/12/12 1,849,000 1,760,000 95%
50
18
518,600 1,040,000
1,558,600
1.13
5.00
2.50
6/11/12 2,995,000 2,995,000 100% 127
6
626,500 1,549,500
2,176,000
1.38
5.00
4.00
2/17/12 1,500,000 1,400,000 93%
79
47
85,400 1,261,500
1,346,900
1.04
4.00
2.00
6/22/12 3,299,000 3,000,000 91%
90
7
996,200 1,327,500
2,323,700
1.29
6.00
4.50
1/9/12 2,295,000 2,200,000 96%
131
13
538,900
735,000 1,273,900
1.73
4.00
3.50
NORTH 2,538,833 2,425,833 96%
96
16
686,450 1,190,583
1,877,033
1.29
4.83
3.92
85
26
638,808
1,637,242
1.12
4.58
3.38
MID 2012 AVG NORTH
NORTH BEACH 1018-F LBB HARVEY CE- 5502 Holly DARS Ave. 44-E Sandy LOVELADIES Island Drive 7 W. Sandy LOVELADIES Cove 44 Lighthouse LOVELADIES Way HIGH BAR HAR- 9 High Bar BOR Way MID 2012 AVG
6 SOLD IN
MID 2012 AVG LBI
MID 12 SOLD IN 2012
1,972,583 1,838,792 93%
998,433
For properties currently available for sale and for those under contract, please feel free to call me or visit www.lbisales.com. I would be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing computer detailed reports and/or generate automatic updates with your personal criteria. Please visit my website at www.LBIsales.com to learn more about our agents, to request a Free Market Analysis, or to search properties currently for sale. The properties on the site are listed geographically, from North to South, which makes navigating the Island and focusing on an area simple. Contact Willy to request a complimentary property evaluation which will include information on marketing techniques as well as current property value. Referrals are the best compliment to receive! Thank you in advance for any leads you may send my way, they are greatly appreciated!
Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Jersey Shore Regional Multiple Listing Service Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Egon Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This newsletter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Egon Willy Kahl. ©
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LB I B A Y F R O N T N E WS LE T T E R
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FEATURED PROPERTIES The Dunes - Exceptional Lagoon Front Home & Location
This home is 4th from the bay with outstanding bay views, 61 Feet on a Deep Water Lagoon, outstanding views of the open waters! Immaculate condition, updated 4 bedroom 3 full bath home, with over sized living room, separate den, separate TV room, dining room, recently updated kitchen and master suite bath, maintenance free vinyl siding, 25 x 55 new back deck, Brick pavers, central air and gas heat, fully furnished, truly turn key! $1,099,000.
LBI REALTY GROUP Exclusive Listing: Harvey Cedars Lagoon Front
This home is on an oversized lot with spectacular bay views from this reversed living contemporary lagoon front home featuring decks galore, open living/ kitchen/ dining are with fireplace, gas heat and central air, nicely landscaped. $1,099,000.
30 year mortgage rate drops to another record low the lowest since long term mortgage data began in the 1950s! Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac tracking data currently shows the average rate on the 30 year loan fell to 3.56%. That's down from 3.62% last week and the lowest since long-term mortgage tracking began in the 1950s. The average rate on the 15-year mortgage, a popular refinancing option, dipped to 2.86% which is lower than last week's previous record of 2.89%. The rate on the 30 year fixed loan has fallen to or matched record low levels in 11 of the past 12 weeks. Still, the pace of home sales remains well below healthy levels in the U.S. Many people are still having difficulty qualifying for home loans or can't afford larger down payments required by lenders. However, LBI is its own paradox! It appears that property values on LBI have reached rock bottom and are beginning to show signs of gradual improvement.
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LBI REALTY GROUP– OUR GROWING TEAM OF PROFESSIONALS It is with great pride and enthusiasm that I would like to update you on the progress our team at LBI Realty Group has recently made. As both Owner and Broker of Record, I am pleased to announce that in less than two years we have more than tripled the number of top producing agents that have joined our team, we have quadrupled the size of our office, and we are one of the leading offices on the Island in terms of business production! LBI Realty Group consists of 15 top producing realtors, with many other agents expressing interest in joining our team. We continually receive positive feedback from those within the industry as well as throughout the community. We look forward to serving both Sellers and Buyers with all of their real estate needs. Our years of experience, knowledge and dedication speak for itself when it comes to the number of satisfied Buyers and Sellers we have had the pleasure of bringing together. We are known on this Island to be true professionals in our industry. All of our agents are highly experienced and are here to serve you. Kevin Bergin and Kevin Farnung - This unique team (www.soldby2kevins.com) have years of success as top producing agents in real estate, with over 200 transactions and over 100 million dollars in sales. Specializing in Internet Marketing for Buyers, their data base includes over 10000 prospects all of whom receive daily information on newly listed properties. Walter Dombrowski is a Real Estate professional with over 13 years experience and over 300 sales transactions. Learn more about Walt and his knowledge of LBI Real Estate at www.soldonlbi.com. James Dooney - Long Beach Island's duplex and property investment specialist for over 33 years. Jim is the author of the LBI Duplex Newsletter, a newsletter dedicated to the LBI duplex market and as a result Jim has a vast prospect list of buyers anxious to purchase multi-family properties here on LBI. He holds the professional designations of Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM), Certified Property Manager (CPM) and Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE). Mary T. Dooney - came to LBI Realty Group with 36 years experience in real estate marketing and sales. A local area expert with knowledge of the communities, Mary holds the prestigious designation of Certified Residential Specialist. This designation is held by only 4% of Realtors throughout the United States. A proven multi-million dollar producer, her experience, marketing expertise and ability to focus on individual real estate needs makes her the ultimate resource when buying or selling a principal residence or a vacation home. Willy Kahl is LBI Realty Group's Waterfront Specialist with knowledge in CAFRA state water front rules and regulations, specializing in LBI Oceanfront properties since 1992! Willy writes the LBI oceanfront newsletter that is published and sent to over 2,300 Homeowners and Buyers here on LBI. Jerry and Lynda Hansen are an integral part of LBI real estate and are widely renowned for their success in the marketing and sales of luxury properties. Michelle DeGennaro is well known throughout Long Beach Island as an outstanding sales agent. With over 30 years of real estate experience and excellent communication skills, Michelle will lead you to your perfect LBI real estate home or investment property. Michael Walsh brings a unique combination of experience in real estate and finance with his devotion to provide excellent customer service to both Buyers and Sellers. Ede Wilk is a long time resident of LBI and has been listing and selling properties on the Island since 1981. Ede is a member of the Ship Bottom Land Use Board and prides herself on being an expert in the community in which she lives, works and serves . Kelly Gabriel has been a full time realtor for six years in the Manahawkin/Long Beach Island area. Kelly dedicates herself to her clients as though she was the one buying or selling the property. She has extensive marketing in place to promote listings and provide sellers with the best possible offer. Her team includes Trish Formica and Ed Ramaine. Trish specializes in working with Buyers. Trish is enthusiastic and professional and she can help you make the right choice for you! Glenn Burke is the newest Realtor to join our team. Glenn specializes in new construction development and sales. Kyle Loreaux, Christine Nelson and Ann Kahl are the support staff at LBI Realty Group.
FIRST CLASS PRESORTED U.S. POSTAGE PAID TOMS RIVER, NJ PERMIT NO. 77
Willy Kahl’s Waterfront Newsletter Egon Willy Kahl / Broker of Record LBI Realty Group 1919 Long Beach Blvd. Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 EMAIL: WILLYKAHL@GMAIL.COM Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901
WWW.LBISALES.COM
Dependable Bayfront Data Enclosed! For properties currently available for sale and those under contract, please feel free to call or email me. I’ll be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports!
Dependable Bayfront Data Enclosed! Healthcare laws surtax could affect many LBI investment property sellers in 2013 Many investors on LBI will be affected by the 3.8% levy which will take effect on January 1, 2013. However the vast majority of homeowners who sell their primary residences next year will not be affected. Following is an example provided by the tax staff at the National Association of Realtors. A married couple has an adjustable gross income (AGI) of $325,000 and they sell their home at a $525,000 profit. Assuming they qualify, $500,000 of that gain is wiped off the slate for tax purposes. The $25,000 additional gain qualifies as net investment income under the healthcare law, giving them a revised AGI of $350,000. Since the law imposes the 3.8% surtax on the lesser amount of revised AGI exceeds the $250,000 threshold for joint filers or the amount of your taxable gain ($25,000), they will end up owing a surtax of $950 ($25,000 times 0.038). For LBI Investment property owners the 3.8% levy can be confusing. The taxable capital gains are far larger when selling a vacation home or income producing property because all the profits may be subject to the investment surtax. My advice is to speak with a tax professional for advice on your specific situation. It will be important to pull together documentation on the capital improvements made to the property and expenses connected with the property — including settlement or closing costs such as title insurance and legal fees — that increase the tax "basis" in order to lower capital gains.
LBI Property Searches-Best Deals Personalized For You I would be happy to set you up with automatic updates on LBI properties that interest you most. E-mail me at willykahl@gmail.com