Willy Kahl LBI REALTY GROUP, Broker of Record-Oceanfront Specialist 1919 Long Beach Blvd., Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 willykahl@gmail.com www.LBIsales.com Office (609) 494-8900
Fax (609) 494-8901
LBI BAYFRONT NEWSLETTER YEAR END 2012 BAYFRONT STUDY Features: Bayfront Sales Volume Continues to Increase and Supply vs. Demand Curve Values of Single Family Bayfront Properties & Chart
LBI Single Family Bayfront Sales Spreadsheet Sandy and Our Sales Market Featured Properties Beach Front Easements Advisory Base Flood Elevations
This study has been created for Long Beach Island homeowners and buyers as a guide to evaluate the current market values of single-family Bayfront properties on Long Beach Island. I hope this information is of value to you!
Willy Kahl
Bayfront Sales Volume Continue to Increase since 2009 There were a total of 21 Bayfront Single family home sales in 2012. This is an increase from the 17 single family bayfront sales in 2011 and greater than the 16 total sales in 2009. In addition, the number of single family bayfront properties for sale(supply) has decreased from 50 in 2011 to just 35 bayfront properties currently listed for sale. I calculate our supply to demand curve by dividing the number of bayfront properties sold in the latest half year period by the amount of bayfront properties currently for sale. These are two key factors to prices stabilizing with values on the rise in the near future. The 2012 year's supply to demand ratio is 0.25 compared to 2011 ratio of 0.19. This is slightly better then 2009, which was one of the worst, with a supply vs. demand ratio of 0.17. Please note that the majority of sales occurred before Sandy came and there has been very little activity since. Trends on bayfront and oceanfront appreciation and depreciation are similar. I have oceanfront data as far back as 1992 and bayfront data beginning in 2004. During 2002, supply vs. demand ratio was the highest in 21 years at 1.09 for oceanfront sales. Our record low of 15 oceanfront homes available on the market was in 2002. Our high was 101 oceanfront homes available in 1993. There are approximately 1100 oceanfront homes and 1000 bayfront homes on LBI. Oceanfront sales are showing us a quicker recovery, and bayfront sales should follow soon! BAYFRONT SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE
60
1.00
50
0.80
40
0.60
30 0.40
20
0.20
10 0
0.00 1ST '04
2ND '04
1ST '05
2ND '05
1ST '06
2ND '06
1ST '07
2ND '07
SOLD
1ST '08
2ND '08
1ST '09
2ND '09
1ST '10
2ND '10
1ST '11
2nd '11
1st 12 2nd 12
AVAIL.
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LB I B A Y FR O NT NE WS LE T T E R
W IN T E R 2 0 1 3
Values of Single Family Bayfront Properties The average price of a bayfront sale in 2012 was $1,744,320. This average price is down a few percent from last year, however many properties recently sold have been older then previous years. The average bayfront property sold had 90 linear feet on the bay. That also brings our value down a slight bit. Bayfront data varies so much that I have computed a more leveraged curve by calculating the price per foot of bay frontage for single family bayfront properties. To see how much an bayfront property is valued the following numbers should be multiplied by the bayfront footage. The average sale prices per linear foot each year are as follows: $19,697 in 2004, $26,818 in 2005, $22,318 in 2006, $23,933 in 2007, $22,659 for 2008, $17,578 for 2009, $20,510 for 2010, $22,524 for 2011 and back to $18,960 for 2012. Of course, this average varies from town-to-town, condition of home, and depth of lot. To calculate the current value of an average bayfront property by linear feet, multiply the amount of bayfront feet by $18,960. From 2004 to present, the average linear foot calculates to 83.78 feet of bay frontage per sale (maximum of 150’ for peninsulas). So far this year the average price is $18,960 x 92 = $1,744,320. After calculating Bayfront values since 2004, and oceanfront values since 1992, I have noticed that LBI Bayfront and Waterfront Homes appreciate at approximately the same levels. The years 2010, 2011, and 2012 have proven to have increasing sales activity and a higher supply/demand ratio than in 2009, and it appears the value of bayfront properties may be leveling off and may even be slightly appreciating in value. Currently sales are extremely slow, in part due to the aftermath of Sandy, and I feel the sales activity will not increase until the late Spring. The yearly sale prices vary more than anticipated, since the class of bayfront properties sold differs every year. In 2005, many bayfront homes that sold were new construction, bringing higher than expected values. In 2006, the majority of bayfront properties that sold were teardowns, creating a decline in values. In 2009, prices were lower than expected due to many corner lot sales with more than 125’ on the bay and an older average age of 30 (many teardowns). In both 2010 and 2011 smaller lots with an average of 78.5 feet on the bayfront were selling which actually brought average values up. These uneven values year to year are due to differences of classes. BAYFRONT AVERAGE SALE PRICE 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000
2,500,000
SOUTH
2,000,000
CENTER
NORTH
1,500,000
AVG. Price
1,000,000
Price/avg.ft.
500,000 0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
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LB I B A Y FR O NT NE WS LE T T E R
WINTER 2013
YEAR END 2012 BAYFRONT SALES from South to North TOWN SOUTH BEACH HAVEN (L.E.H) BEACH HAVEN SPRAY BEACH BEACH HAVEN TERRACE BEACH HAVEN TERRACE HAVEN BEACH BEACH HAVEN PARK BRIGHTON BEACH BEACH HAVEN CREST 2012 AVG
ADDRESS
DATE SOLD
LIST
SELL
PRICE $ PRICE $
SELL$/ FEET AGE ASSESS LIST$ WTR
BUILD $
ASSESS
ASSESS
LAND $
TOTAL$
SELL$/ ASSESS$
#BED #BAT R. H
410 W. Essex Ave. 900 N. Delaware Ave.
7/3/12
1,599,000 1,500,000 94%
105
32
303,900
909,000
1,212,900
1.24
5.00
4.00
8/17/12
2,150,000 2,075,000 97%
174
6
708,200
704,200
1,412,400
1.47
8.00
8.00
2422 LBB
4/5/12
1,195,000
998,000 84%
81
10
525,200
623,700
1,148,900
0.87
5.00
3.50
13009 Bayview Ave.
8/9/12
1,299,000 1,175,000 90%
75
12
489,600
656,300
1,145,900
1.03
4.00
3.50
121 W. Indiana Ave. (129th)
6/12/12
2,895,000 2,757,500 95%
100
11
2,288,300
945,000
3,233,300
0.85
7.00
5.00
11310 Sunset Terrace
5/24/12
1,150,000 1,080,000 94%
60
62
86,800
869,000
955,800
1.13
4.00
3.00
32 Hideaway Drive
12/11/12
1,829,000 1,795,000 98%
141
10
561,200 1,380,700
1,941,900
0.92
4.00
2.50
32 W. 87th St.
10/5/12
1,150,000
995,000 87%
60
9
260,800
869,000
1,129,800
0.88
4.00
3.00
31 W.Mea Ln (74th St)
12/7/12
995,000
900,000 90%
87
24
312,600 1,082,300
1,394,900
0.65
4.00
2.50
1,584,667 1,475,056 93%
98
20
615,178
893,244
1,508,422
0.98
5.00
3.89
9 SOLD IN
SOUTH
CENTER BRANT BEACH
4910 LBB
4/13/12
1,199,000
990,000 83%
50
31
172,200
790,000
962,200
1.03
3.00
2.00
BRANT BEACH
3500 LBB 2409 W. Central Ave.
3/9/12
1,250,000
985,000 79%
100
31
296,400 1,185,000
1,481,400
0.66
4.00
2.50
6/6/12
749,000
700,000 93%
50
72
178,100
425,000
603,100
1.16
3.00
1.00
CENTER
1,066,000
891,667 84%
67
45
215,567
800,000
1,015,567
0.88
3.33
1.83
SHIP BOTTOM 2012 AVG
3 SOLD IN
NORTH NORTH BEACH
1018-F LBB
5/4/12
3,295,000 3,200,000 97%
100
6
1,353,100 1,230,000
2,583,100
1.24
5.00
7.00
NORTH BEACH
1082-F LBB
10/5/12
2,695,000 2,500,000 93%
100
18
518,800 1,230,000
1,748,800
1.43
6.00
4.50
NORTH BEACH
1126-E LBB
8/17/12
1,999,000 1,900,000 95%
65
42
236,900 1,387,500
1,624,400
1.17
6.00
4.00
5502 Holly Ave.
3/12/12
1,849,000 1,760,000 95%
50
18
518,600 1,040,000
1,558,600
1.13
5.00
2.50
16 LBB
12/3/12
1,995,000 1,725,000 86%
125
78
138,300 2,283,700
2,422,000
0.71
6.00
4.00
6/11/12
2,995,000 2,995,000 100%
127
6
626,500 1,549,500
2,176,000
1.38
5.00
4.00
2/17/12
1,500,000 1,400,000 93%
79
47
85,400 1,261,500
1,346,900
1.04
4.00
2.00
6/22/12
3,299,000 3,000,000 91%
90
7
996,200 1,327,500
2,323,700
1.29
6.00
4.50
1/9/12
2,295,000 2,200,000 96%
131
13
538,900
735,000
1,273,900
1.73
4.00
3.50
HARVEY CEDARS LOVELADIES LOVELADIES LOVELADIES LOVELADIES HIGH BAR HARBOR 2012 AVG 2012 AVG LBI
44-E Sandy Island Drive 7 W. Sandy Cove 44 Lighthouse Way 9 High Bar Way 9 SOLD IN
NORTH
2,435,778 2,297,778 94%
96
26
556,967 1,338,300
1,895,267
1.21
5.22
4.00
21 SOLD IN
2012
1,875,333 1,744,310 93%
93
26
533,143 1,070,662
1,603,805
1.09
4.86
3.53
Please visit my website at www.LBIsales.com to learn more about our agents, to request a Free Market Analysis, or to search properties currently for sale. The properties on the site are listed geographically, from North to South, which makes navigating the Island and focusing on an area simple. Contact Willy to request a complimentary property evaluation which will include information on marketing techniques as well as current property value. Referrals are the best compliment to receive! Thank you in advance for any leads you may send my way, they are greatly appreciated!
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LB I B A Y FR O NT NE WS LE T T E R
PAGE 4
Featured Properties NORTH BEACH CONTEMPORARY OCEANFRONT 4 Bedroom plus TV area 5.5 Baths All rooms with Ocean View Elevator Custom Kitchen
2,650,000.
BEACH HAVEN PARK CONTEMPORARY 91 FEET on BAY 6 Bedrooms 3.5 Baths Riparian Grant Partial Bay Beach Panoramic Bay Views
BEACH HAVEN GARDENS BAYFRONT with DOCK 5 Bedrooms 3.5 Baths Bay Vews Riparian Grant
1,299,000. HARVEY CEDARS OCEANFRONT 3 Bedrooms 2.5 Baths Fascinating View Reversed Living Open Living, Kitchen and Dining Area
1,499,000.
1,199,000. HARVEY CEDARS LAGOONFRONT OVERSIZED LOT 3 Bedrooms 2.5 Baths Riparian Grant Reversed Living Open Living, Kitchen and Dining Area
THE DUNES LAGOONFRONT with BAY VIEWS 4 Bedrooms 3 Baths Fully Furnished 61 feet on deep water lagoon
999,000.
975,000.
PEAHALA PARK BAYFRONT
SHIP BOTTOM LAGOONFRONT
Sandy “Tear Down” or Rebuild 1st level 5 Bedrooms 2 Baths 80 feet on Bayfront C.A.F.R.A. permits applied for 80 ft. vinyl bulkhead Panoramic Views Riparian
5 Bedrooms 2.5 Baths Reversed Living Elevator Open Living, Kitchen and Dining Area
1,189,000.
995,000. SHIP BOTTOM MOTHER/ DAUGHTER 80 X 100 LOT 4 Bedrooms 2 Full Baths 2 Half-Baths Raised Ranch Fully Furnished
BARNEGAT LIGHT OCEANFRONT Duplex 6 Bedrooms 2 Baths Private northern corner Lot View of Inlet and Ocean Open Floor Plans
1,099,000.
549,000.
I would be happy to set you up with automatic updates on LBI properties that interest you most. E-mail me at willykahl@gmail.com
W IN T E R 2 0 1 3
LB I B A Y FR O NT NE WS LE T T E R
PAGE 5
TIME SENSITIVE INFORMATION REGARDING BEACH FRONT EASEMENTS I attended a meeting with Mayor Mancini of Long Beach Township on February 7. The meeting focused on the aftermath of Sandy and the importance of oceanfront property owners understanding the facts regarding beachfront easements. The Mayor shared the following information which is very important and time sensitive: The signatures from oceanfront owners is an acknowledgment by the homeowner for authorized personnel from the Army Core of Engineers or DEP to take action to build and maintain the physical integrity of our beaches and dunes The easements do not create the right for public access, or even access by the Army Core of Engineers, to go down a private lane or across an oceanfront property There will be no bathrooms, boardwalk, or anything else constructed on the dunes It is imperative that every oceanfront homeowner sign the easement authorization by March 1, 2013. If our communities do not have 100% support in favor of dune replenishment the millions of dollars offered by the federal government will no longer be available to LBI and will instead be used in New York or elsewhere. For all Long Beach Township homeowners that have not signed, Mayor Mancini would personally welcome your call and may be reached directly at his office 609-361-6689. Mayor Huelsenbeck has stated the ocean came over the dunes in Ship Bottom and our properties were flooded primarily from the ocean, not the bay. The towns that had the replenishment project had little to no damage by comparison. For Ship Bottom property owners, please call Mayor Huelsenbeck at (609) 494-2171 x 116. Mayor Keeler of Beach Haven has stated that they only need three more signatures, and is confident he will have them by the end of February. Holgate is in need of just one more signature. Some towns such as Ship Bottom, Loveladies, and North Beach are still in need as many as 25 more signatures.
The New Advisory Base Flood Elevations FEMA has released their revised flood maps which were originally scheduled to be released in 2015. The maps have been expedited in order to help towns and homeowners utilize the new guidelines instead of rebuilding using the guidelines of the current flood maps. The 2015 maps, referred to as the ABFE (advisory base flood elevation) maps are available online. The website provides information to find the recommended ABFE, in addition to a wealth of other information. Currently, it appears most LBI townships will conform with the new Advisory base flood elevations, but it will not be official until summer and not take effect until 18-24 months from now. To learn of your properties current flood elevation and to view the new advisory base flood elevation, type your address in at: http://www.region2coastal.com/sandy/table On January 24, 2013, Governor Chris Christie announced new emergency regulations issued by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) adopting the FEMA flood maps, which provide rebuilding standards in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene and Superstorm Sandy in New Jersey. The new maps, while already issued by FEMA, will not take effect for 18-24 months, potentially leaving property owners in a state of limbo as to whether they should rebuild their properties today or wait up to two years until the new maps are adopted. Under federal law property owners in flood prone areas whose property was damaged greater than 50% automatically must meet current rebuilding and height standards. Those whose properties sustained damage of 50% or less are not required to meet current rebuilding and height standards. However if reconstruction is not according to the new regulations the cost of future flood insurance may be substantially greater. These new flood maps have been underway for quite some time. Since Sandy’s unwelcome arrival, the new map regulations will be adapted quicker than expected. Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Jersey Shore Regional Multiple Listing Service Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Egon Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This newsletter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Egon Willy Kahl. ©
FIRST CLASS PRESORT MAIL U.S. POSTAGE PAID TOMS RIVER, NJ PERMIT NO. 77
Willy Kahl’s Waterfront Newsletter Egon Willy Kahl / Broker of Record LBI Realty Group 1919 Long Beach Blvd. Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 EMAIL: WILLYKAHL@GMAIL.COM Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901
WWW.LBISALES.COM
Dependable Bayfront Data Enclosed! For properties currently available for sale and those under contract, please feel free to call or email me. I’ll be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports!
Dependable Bayfront Data Enclosed! TIME SENSITIVE INFORMATION REGARDING BEACH FRONT EASEMENTS I attended a meeting with Mayor Mancini of Long Beach Township on February 7. The meeting focused on the aftermath of Sandy and the importance of oceanfront property owners understanding the facts regarding beachfront easements. The Mayor shared the following information which is very important and time sensitive. Please refer to page 5 for all the details.
SANDY AND OUR SALES MARKET Now that the beginning of February has arrived, we can see that sales have tremendously declined since this same time period last year. The buyers that are here are strong, and are looking for great deals, however the number of buyers that are actively looking has decreased. Many properties that were under contract prior to Sandy have since closed. However, contracts on properties that were severely damaged may have been canceled by the buyer. I would guesstimate that 50% of our contracts on LBI were cancelled. Hopefully these buyers will reconsider after repairs are finished and the property is back to it's original condition. Some properties have recently sold after renovations were completed. Many buyers are waiting for new flood maps to become available as well as additional information regarding future flood insurance rates. With few buyers, and so many properties for sale, values may temporarily decline. Currently there are a few very attractively priced waterfront properties for sale that I anticipate selling soon. I would expect this will readjust upwards in the near future, as the Real Estate market has turned around in the U.S. and prices are rising again in general.