Egon Willy Kahl L B I R e a l t y G r o u p , O wn e r / B r o k er of R e c o r d 2 5 6 W e st 9t h S t . S u i t e F , S h i p B o t t o m , N J 0 8 0 0 8
Cell (609) 709-1020 Office (609) 494—8900 Fax (609) 494-8901 willykahl@gmail.com we b s i t e : w w w . l b i r e a l t y g r o u p . c o m
LBI BAYFRONT NEWSLETTER MID 2010 BAYFRONT STUDY • • • • •
Features: Values of Bayfront Properties
•
Average Sale Price Per Chart
•
LBI Single Family Bayfront Sales Spreadsheet Supply vs. Demand Curve
Willy Kahl’s new office -LBI Realty Group Bayfront Data Analysis & Conclusion
This study has been created for Long Beach Island homeowners and buyers as a guide to evaluate the current market values of single-family bayfront properties on Long Beach Island. I hope this information is of value to you!
Supply vs. Demand Chart
Egon Willy Kahl
Values of Bayfront Properties So far this year we have had increasing sales activity and a higher supply/demand ratio than 2009, and it appears the value of bayfront properties may be leveling off. The average sale price of bayfront property in 2010 has decreased in value approximately 22% since the peak years of 2004-2005. Bayfront data shows that values have decreased from 2005 to present based on average sales price. The average sale prices each year are as follows: $1,575,763 in 2004, $2,413,619 in 2005, $1,718,470 in 2006, $1,986,444 in 2007, $1,971,347 for 2008, and $1,669,938 for 2009 and 1,822,800 this first half of 2010. Our graph shows us these new values and how they increased from 2004 to 2005 and than slightly decrease over the years. My approximation for past sales concludes that bayfront values are up 350% since our country’s last depressions low values of 1992-1993. BAYFRONT AVERAGE SALE PRICE 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 SOUTH
2,500,000
CENTER
2,000,000
NORTH
1,500,000
AVG. Price
1,000,000 500,000 0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1ST 2010
PAGE 2
MID 2010
LBI MID 2010 BAYFRONT SALES from South to North TOWN SOUTH HOLGATE MID 2010 AVG
ADDRESS
DATE
LIST
SELL
SELL FEET AGE AS- ASSESS ASSESS SELL$/ #BEDR. #BATH $/ SESS SOLD PRICE $ PRICE $ LIST$ WTR BUILD $ LAND $ TOTAL$ ASSESS $ 31 W Magno- 6/19/10 799,000 750,000 94% 9 356,700 546,000 0.83 4.00 3.00 lia 902,700 1 SOLD IN SOUTH 799,000 750,000 94% #DIV/ 9 356,700 546,000 0.83 4.00 3.00 0! 902,700 6/14/10
799,000
651,000 81%
CENTER SHIP BOTTOM
252 W 27th
40
60
151,500 548,600
0.93
4.00
2.00
1.18
4.00
3.50
1.08
4.00
2.75
778,300
1.67
3.00
2.00
700,100 SHIP BOTTOM
248 W 27th
5/14/10 1,295,000 1,200,000 93%
40
7
408,500 604,800 1,013,300
MID 2010 AVG
2 SOLD IN CENTER 1,047,000
925,500 88%
40
34
280,000 576,700 856,700
NORTH HARVEY CEDARS 6304 LBB
4/26/10 1,395,000 1,300,000 93%
50
30
HARVEY CEDARS 4 W. Salem Ave. LOVELADIES 63 Bayview Dr LOVELADIES 48 W Holly Dr LOVELADIES 164F LBB
2/3/10
800,000 80%
85
58
65,300 1,193,900 1,259,200
0.64
3.00
2.00
1/29/10 2,590,000 2,175,000 84%
121
42
308,300 1,671,000 1,979,300
1.10
3.00
2.00
3/25/10 3,950,000 3,750,000 95%
100
2
740,200 1,179,400 1,919,600
1.95
5.00
5.00
3/12/10 4,225,000 3,900,000 92%
104
6
770,600 1,411,500 2,182,100
1.79
5.00
5.50
170G Sea 5/18/10 2,495,000 2,300,000 92% Pine Dr HIGH BAR HAR- 38 Antioch 4/1/10 1,495,000 1,400,000 94% BOR Rd MID 2010 AVG 7 SOLD IN NORTH 2,449,286 2,232,143 91%
94
15
375,100 1,345,500 1,720,600
1.34
4.00
3.00
60
41
314,400 840,000 1,154,400
1.21
4.00
3.00
88
28
402,457 1,168,043 1,570,500
1.42
3.86
3.21
MID 2010 AVG LBI 10 SOLD IN MID 2010 2,003,800 1,822,600 91%
77
27
373,390 987,570 1,360,960
1.34
3.90
3.10
995,000
LOVELADIES
243,300 535,000
SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE BACK ON THE RISE This year, our new supply vs. demand ratio has hit .21, which is better than the 1992 to 1995 years, where we began to see leveling and even a slight increase in values. Last year supply vs. demand ratio of 0.15 on bayfront is the lowest it has been since I began documenting data. Simple economics states that if there is an abundance of a product (bayfront homes) and few consumers (Buyers) values will descend. It is when we reach an equal number of Buyers and Sellers that values become stable. When the product is scarce and the demand is high, values increase. During 2002 supply vs. demand ratio was the highest in 21 years. Currently there are 48 bayfronts available for sale, up from 45 last half of 2009. This is comparable to the ratios back in 1992 thru 1994, when prices were fairly stable and took a few years before seeing any appreciation. The number of sales on the bay has slightly increased this half from 9 average sales per half year last year to 10 this half of 2010. For greater detail of bayfront homes that have sold this year, see the next page of this report which is a spreadsheet created from the South end to the North end of L.B.I. For properties currently available for sale and for those under contract, please feel free to call me. I would be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports! Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Greater N.J. Regional Multiple Listing Service Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Egon Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This newsletter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Egon Willy Kahl. ©
M ID 2 0 1 0
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LB I B A Y F R O N T N E WS LE T T E R
SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CHART BAYFRONT SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE 60
1.00
50
0.80
40
0.60
30 0.40
20
0.20
10 0
0.00 1ST '04 2ND '04 1ST '05 2ND '05 1ST '06 2ND '06 1ST '07 2ND '07 1ST '08 2ND '08 1ST '09 2ND '09 1ST '10
SOLD
AVAIL.
DEM/SUP
Proudly Announcing My New Agency-LBI Realty Group I have some very exciting news! After much thought and consideration, I have decided that the time has come for me to venture out and establish my own Real Estate Agency. It is with great pride and enthusiasm that I would like to introduce you to “LBI Realty Group”. As both Owner and Broker of Record, I am pleased to announce that we opened our doors on July 20th. We are already well on our way to becoming one of the most successful agencies on the Island, with five of LBI’s Top Producers having already joined the Group, and many others expressing interest. I have received nothing but positive reaction from those within the industry as well as throughout the community. We look forward to serving both Sellers and Buyers with all of their real estate needs. Our years of experience, knowledge and dedication speak for itself when it comes to the number of satisfied Buyers and Sellers we have had the pleasure of bringing together. We are known on this Island to be true professionals in our industry. All of our agents are highly experienced and here to help you. Kevin Bergin and Kevin Farnung - This unique team (www.soldby2kevins.com) have years of success as top producing agents in real estate, with over 170 transactions and 95 million dollars in sales. Specializing in internet marketing for buyers, their data base includes over 3900 prospects all of whom receive daily information on newly listed properties. James Dooney - Long Beach Island's duplex and property investment specialist for over 33 years. Jim is the author of the LBI Duplex Newsletter, and as a result, Jim has a vast prospect list of buyers anxious to purchase multi-family properties here on LBI. Walter Dombrowski - a real estate professional with over 12 years experience and over 300 sales transactions. Learn more about Walt and his knowledge of LBI Real Estate at www.soldonlbi.com Willy Kahl - LBI Realty Group's Waterfront Specialist with knowledge in CAFRA state waterfront rules and regulations, specializing in LBI Waterfronts since 1992! Willy writes the LBI Oceanfront and Bayfront newsletters that are published and sent to over 2300 Homeowners and Buyers here on LBI. Contact Willy at 609-709-1020 or E-mail: willykahl@gmail.com. Please visit our website at www.lbirealtygroup.com to learn more about our agents, or to request a Free Market Analysis as well as search properties currently for sale. The properties on the site are listed geographically, from North to South, which makes navigating the Island and focusing on an area simple!
FIRST CLASS PRESORTED U.S. POSTAGE PAID TOMS RIVER, NJ PERMIT NO. 77
Willy Kahl’s Bayfront Newsletter Egon Willy Kahl / Broker of Record LBI Realty Group 256 West 9th St. Suite F Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901 EMAIL: WILLYKAHL@GMAIL.COM WWW.LBIREALTYGROUP.COM
Dependable Bayfront Data Enclosed! For properties currently available for sale and those under contract, please feel free to call me. I’ll be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports!
Bayfront Data Analysis and Conclusion In 1987, the sales market had peaked on LBI. Nearly six years later, I was selling waterfront homes for approximately 25% less than the 1987 climatic sales market. Properties began appreciating slowly from 1992 to 1998. In that seven year time period, the average waterfront home increased a total of 24%. Over the next seven years (1999-2005), they increased an additional 312%! We are now experiencing over five years of a declining LBI home sales market. Currently, I feel we are at a 20-22% depreciation from the 2004-2005 peak for waterfront properties and 25-30% for homes off the waterfront. From our 1987 peak, it took almost 6 years to reach the bottom, another 7 years (13 years total) to go back to the 1987 peak values and then an additional 6 years (about 20 years total) to more than triple the value! If the cycle of real estate values continues to rise and decline as it has in the past, we are approaching the time when values will have reached their lowest and will soon begin to appreciate once again.
Most Buyers are excited that they are able to afford a vacation home on LBI! With historically low mortgage interest rates and reduced asking prices, along with a variety of properties to choose from, it’s a great time to buy or sell here on LBI!
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