Egon Willy Kahl L B I R e a l t y G r o u p , O wn e r / B r o k er — O c e a n f r o n t S p e c i a l i s t 2 5 6 W e st 9t h S t . S u i t e F , S h i p B o t t o m , N J 0 8 0 0 8
Cell (609) 709-1020 Office (609) 494—8900 Fax (609) 494-8901 w i l l y k a h l @ g m a i l . c o m , we b s i t e : ww w. l b i r e a l t y g r o u p . c o m
LBI OCEANFRONT NEWSLETTER MID 2010 OCEANFRONT STUDY • • • •
Features: Values of Oceanfront Properties Average Sale Price Per Foot Chart LBI Single Family Oceanfront Sales Spreadsheet Supply vs. Demand Curve Back
• • •
on the rise Supply vs. Demand Chart Willy Kahl’s new office -LBI Realty Group Oceanfront Data Analysis & Conclusion
This study has been created for Long Beach Island homeowners and buyers as a guide to evaluate the current market values of single-family Oceanfront properties on Long Beach Island. I hope this information is of value to you!
Egon Willy Kahl
Values of Oceanfront Properties since 1992 So far this year we have had increasing sales activity and a higher supply/demand ratio than 2009, and it appears the value of oceanfront properties may be leveling off. The average sale price of oceanfront property in 2010 has decreased in value approximately 20% since the peak years of 2004-2005. Data shows that values of oceanfront properties have fallen based on average sales per linear foot. The average sale prices per linear foot each year are as follows: $2,114,738 in 2004, $2,434,611 in 2005, $2,525,057 in 2006, $2,154,682 in 2007, $2,471,368 for 2008, $2,326,397 for 2009 and a drop to $2,006,837 so far this 1st half of 2010. This 1st half of 2010 we had less than usual sales for the North end of LBI (North Beach to Barnegat Light), bringing our average value down slightly more than expected. Our yearly sale prices vary more than anticipated, since the class of oceanfront properties sold differs every year. In 2006, many oceanfront homes that sold were new construction, bringing higher than expected values. In 2007, the majority of oceanfront properties that sold were teardowns, creating a decline in values. In 2008, the sale of oceanfront property in North Beach, Loveladies, and on oversized lots in Barnegat Light increased the average values for two reasons. The majority of homes were newly constructed and the north end location also holds the highest land values on LBI. These sales created a higher than average sale price for oceanfronts than expected in 2008. In 2009, we had North end properties selling. In this 1st half of 2010, the number of North end properties selling were below average, bringing average prices down. Our graph shows us these new values and how they increased and then slightly decreased over the years. It also shows us the values without calculating the per foot value. The current frontage average along the ocean is 72.71 feet, which includes all of the oceanfront sales since 1992. AVERAGE SALE PRICE PER FOOT 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1ST 2010 SOUTH
CENTER
NORTH
AVG. Price
Price/avg.ft.
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MID 2010
LBI MID 2010 OCEANFRONT SALES from South to North TOWN
ADDRESS
SOUTH
DATE
LIST
SOLD
PRICE
SELL
SELL/ FEET AGE ASSESS ASSESS ASSESS
PRICE $ LIST $ WTR
BUILD
LAND
TOTAL
ASSESS $ 924,000 1,217,300 0.99
HOLGATE
5111 S LBB
6/25/10 1,295,000 1,200,000 93%
40
23
293,300
HOLGATE
4305 S LBB
6/25/10 1,450,000 1,275,000 88%
60
24
286,800 1,270,500 1,557,300
901 S Atlan- 6/25/10 1,785,000 1,585,000 89% tic Ave. 4 3rd St 1,395,000 1,370,000 98%
50
25
50
145 E Indi5/27/10 ana Ave. 110 E Wini- 5/18/10 fred Ave(79th St) 3707 Ocean 3/5/10 Blvd. 7 SOLD IN SOUTH
2,950,000 2,285,000 77%
BEACH HAVEN BEACH HAVEN BEACH HAVEN TERRACE BEACH HAVEN CREST BRANT BEACH MID 2010 AVG
SELL$/ #BEDR. #BATH
4.00
2.50
0.82
5.00
3.50
128,800 1,332,000 1,460,800
1.09
3.00
2.00
27
178,300 1,345,000 1,523,300
0.90
5.00
3.50
110
56
67,500 1,848,000 1,915,500
1.19
4.00
1.50
1,999,900 1,775,000 89%
55
2
450,000 1,085,700 1,535,700
1.16
4.00
4.50
1,399,000 1,300,000 93%
45
42
164,500 1,039,500 1,204,000
1.08
6.00
2.00
1,753,414 1,541,429 88%
59
28
224,171 1,263,529 1,487,700
1.04
4.43
2.79
213 N. 5/20/10 2,449,000 2,100,000 86% Ocean Ave (N. 3rd St) 1513 Ocean 1/1/10 2,599,000 2,400,000 92% Ave. 2 SOLD IN CEN2,524,000 2,250,000 89% TER
50
5
431,000 1,150,000 1,581,000
1.33
4.00
3.50
50
6
504,900 1,000,000 1,504,900
1.59
4.00
3.00
50
6
467,950 1,075,000 1,542,950
1.46
4.00
3.25
CENTER SURF CITY
SURF CITY MID 2010 AVG NORTH
NORTH BEACH 1021C LBB
3/8/10 2,825,000 2,350,000 83%
100
10
563,700 2,462,500 3,026,200
0.78
6.00
4.00
NORTH BEACH 1083 LBB
6/16/10 3,233,500 3,095,000 96%
100
56
109,800 3,461,500 3,571,300
0.87
6.00
2.50
HARVEY CEDARS 20 E 80th St
6/4/10 1,550,000 1,450,000 94%
100
67
182,300 1,150,000 1,332,300
1.09
5.00
2.00
2/8/10 3,799,000 3,649,500 96%
125
42
95,200 3,012,500 3,107,700
1.17
4.00
2.00
4 SOLD IN NORTH 2,851,875 2,636,125 92%
106
44
237,750 2,521,625 2,759,375
0.96
5.25
2.63
72
30
265,854 1,621,631 1,887,485
1.05
4.62
2.81
LOVELADIES MID 2010 AVG
95D LBB
MID 2010 AVG LBI 13 SOLD IN MID 2010
2,209,954 1,987,269 90%
SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE BACK ON THE RISE This year, our new supply vs. demand ratio has hit .22, which is better than the 1992 to 1995 years, where we began to see leveling and even a slight increase in values. Last year supply vs. demand ratio of 0.115 on oceanfront is the lowest it has been since I began documenting data in 1992. Simple economics states that if there is an abundance of a product (oceanfront homes) and few consumers (Buyers) values will decline. It is when we reach an equal number of Buyers and Sellers that values become stable. When the product is scarce and the demand is high, values increase. During 2002 supply vs. demand ratio was the highest in 21 years, at 1.09 for oceanfront sales. Currently there are 59 oceanfront properties available for sale, down from 63 last half. Our record low of 15 oceanfronts on the market was in 2002. Our high was 101 oceanfront homes available in 1993. Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Greater N.J. Regional Multiple Listing Service Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Egon Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This newsletter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Egon Willy Kahl. ©
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LB I O C E A N F R O N T N E WS L E T T E R
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SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CHART OCEANFRONT SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
100 80 60 40 20
2N D 1S '92 T 2N '93 D 1S '93 T 2N '94 D 1S '94 T 2N '95 D 1S '95 T 2N '96 D 1S '96 T 2N '97 D 1S '97 T 2N '98 D 1S '98 T 2N '99 D 1S '99 T 2N '00 D 1S '00 T 2N '01 D 1S '01 T 2N '02 D 1S '02 T 2N '03 D 1S '03 T 2N '04 D 1S '04 T 2N '05 D 1S '05 T 2N '06 D 1S '06 T 2N '07 D 1S '07 T 2N '08 D 1S '08 T 2N '09 D 1S '09 T '10
0
SOLD
AVAIL.
DEM/SUP
Proudly Announcing My New Agency-LBI Realty Group I have some very exciting news! After much thought and consideration, I have decided that the time has come for me to venture out and establish my own Real Estate Agency. It is with great pride and enthusiasm that I would like to introduce you to “LBI Realty Group”. As both Owner and Broker of Record, I am pleased to announce that we opened our doors on July 20th. We are already well on our way to becoming one of the most successful agencies on the Island, with five of LBI’s Top Producers having already joined the Group, and many others expressing interest. I have received nothing but positive reaction from those within the industry as well as throughout the community. We look forward to serving both Sellers and Buyers with all of their real estate needs. Our years of experience, knowledge and dedication speak for itself when it comes to the number of satisfied Buyers and Sellers we have had the pleasure of bringing together. We are known on this Island to be true professionals in our industry. All of our agents are highly experienced and here to help you. Kevin Bergin and Kevin Farnung - This unique team (www.soldby2kevins.com) have years of success as top producing agents in real estate, with over 170 transactions and 95 million dollars in sales. Specializing in internet marketing for buyers, their data base includes over 3900 prospects all of whom receive daily information on newly listed properties. James Dooney - Long Beach Island's duplex and property investment specialist for over 33 years. Jim is the author of the LBI Duplex Newsletter, and as a result, Jim has a vast prospect list of buyers anxious to purchase multi-family properties here on LBI. Walter Dombrowski - a real estate professional with over 12 years experience and over 300 sales transactions. Learn more about Walt and his knowledge of LBI Real Estate at www.soldonlbi.com Willy Kahl - LBI Realty Group's Oceanfront Specialist with knowledge in CAFRA state water front rules and regulations, specializing in LBI Oceanfronts since 1992! Willy writes the LBI oceanfront newsletter that is published and sent to over 2300 Homeowners and Buyers here on LBI. Contact Willy at 609709-1020 or E-mail: willykahl@gmail.com. Please visit our website at www.lbirealtygroup.com to learn more about our agents, or to request a Free Market Analysis as well as search properties currently for sale. The properties on the site are listed geographically, from North to South, which makes navigating the Island and focusing on an area simple! This mailing is not intended to solicit properties currently available for sale.
FIRST CLASS PRESORTED U.S. POSTAGE PAID TOMS RIVER, NJ PERMIT NO. 77
Willy Kahl’s Oceanfront Newsletter Egon Willy Kahl / Broker of Record LBI Realty Group 256 West 9th St. Suite F Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901 EMAIL: WILLYKAHL@GMAIL.COM WWW.LBIREALTYGROUP.COM
Dependable Oceanfront Data Enclosed! For properties currently available for sale and those under contract, please feel free to call me. I’ll be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports!
25 Years of Oceanfront Data Analysis and Conclusion In 1987, the sales market had peaked on LBI. Nearly six years later, I was selling oceanfront homes for approximately 25% less than the 1987 climatic sales market. Properties began appreciating slowly from 1992 to 1998. In that seven year time period, the average oceanfront home increased a total of 24%. Over the next seven years (1999-2005), they increased an additional 312%! We are now experiencing over five years of a declining LBI home sales market. Currently, I feel we are at a 20-22% depreciation from the 2004-2005 peak for oceanfront properties and 25-30% for homes off the waterfront. From our 1987 peak, it took almost 6 years to reach the bottom, another 7 years (13 years total) to go back to the 1987 peak values and then an additional 6 years (about 20 years total) to more than triple the value! If the cycle of real estate values continues to rise and decline as it has in the past, we are approaching the time when values will have reached their lowest and will soon begin to appreciate once again.
Most Buyers are excited that they are able to afford a vacation home on LBI! With historically low mortgage interest rates and reduced asking prices, along with a variety of properties to choose from, it’s a great time to buy or sell here on LBI!
Oceanfront Masterpiece just built in 2007. Panoramic views with decks on every level and oversized lot with 75’ on the ocean. The kitchen includes Wolf appliances custom cabinets and a breakfast nook complete with a fireplace with an entrance to a covered deck. Complete with media center and AV equipment. Solidly constructed, reinforced to withstand hurricane force winds. Multi zone a/c heat. 4000 sq ft living area and 1568 sq ft. decks. House comes furnished by Baker Milling Road, Habersham, Lorts custom bookcases, window dressing with privacy shades, inventory attached, complete with original seashore artwork. This five bedrooms and five and a half bath home is truly turn-key ready to be moved into now! $3,599,000.