Willy Kahl LBI REALTY GROUP, Broker of Record-Oceanfront Specialist 1919 Long Beach Blvd., Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 willykahl@gmail.com www.LBIsales.com Office (609) 494-8900
Fax (609) 494-8901
LBI OCEANFRONT NEWSLETTER 2014 MID YEAR OCEANFRONT STUDY
Features: Single Family Oceanfront Values Oceanfront Single Family Sales Data LBI is Back in Action
Oceanfront Sales Volume Supply vs. Demand Chart Featured Properties 27 Years of Data Analysis
This study has been created for Long Beach Island homeowners and buyers as a guide to evaluate the current market values of single-family Oceanfront properties on Long Beach Island. I hope this information is of value to you! Willy Kahl
Values of Single Family Oceanfront Property Appears to be Rising Slowly In 2013, the average oceanfront price on LBI had increased to an all time record high of $2,959,529 during 2013! This over inflated price was partly due to the numerous sales of oceanfront property on the north end of the Island which increased values much higher than expected. In general oceanfront property values have turned around and are beginning to appreciate once again! During the 1st half of 2014, the average oceanfront property sold has been much smaller in size than those sold last year. We had an average of 84’ of ocean frontage sold in 2013 versus our average this year of 64 feet on the oceanfront. The average price of an oceanfront sale this 1st half of 2014 has a deflated value of $1,834,692 (vs. $1,851,048 average in 2012). The average oceanfront property sold also had 64 linear feet on the oceanfront (vs. 69 in 2012 and 84’ in 2013). Seven of the thirteen sales this first half of 2014 were tear down Oceanfront homes, bringing prices down tremendously. Oceanfront data varies so much that I have computed a more leveraged curve by calculating the price per foot of ocean frontage for single family oceanfront properties. To see how much an oceanfront property is valued the following numbers should be multiplied by the oceanfront footage. The average sale prices per linear foot each year are as follows: $7,662 in 1992, $29,069 in 2004, $33,466 in 2005, $34,709 in 2006, $29,618 in 2007, $33,971for 2008, $31,966 for 2009, $30,102 for 2010 and $32,061 for 2011. With the numerous teardowns which have sold, 2012 held a value of only $26,827 per linear foot. 2013 increased to a record high of $35,232 per linear foot. So far this year we are back to $28,667 per linear foot, due to so many tear downs selling for land value. Of course this average varies from town-to-town, condition of home, and depth of lot. To calculate the current value of an average oceanfront property multiply the amount of oceanfront feet by $26,826 (if older home) to $35,232(if newer home in excellent condition with a deep lot and a tranquil location). From 1992 to present the average linear foot calculates to 72.28 feet of ocean frontage per sale. The yearly sale prices vary more than anticipated because of the type of oceanfront properties that have sold. In 2006 many oceanfront homes that sold were new construction, bringing higher than expected values. In 2007 the majority of oceanfront properties that sold were teardowns, creating a decline in values. In 2008 the sale of oceanfront property in North Beach, Loveladies, and on oversized lots in Barnegat Light increased the average values for two reasons. The majority of homes were newly constructed and north end of the Island locations also hold the highest land values on LBI. These sales created a higher than average sale price for oceanfront properties than expected in 2008. In 2009 there were not any north end properties that sold. In 2010 the number of north end properties that sold were below average, bringing average prices down. In 2011, new construction in North Beach included an entire tract which brought our average value up a bit. In 2012 many tear downs sold along with just two new construction and one 5 years of age, bringing values down from 2011. The first half of 2013 we were back up a bit, which is great considering mostly teardowns have sold, and proves values are once again appreciating. The second half shows an unrealistic rate, where most properties sold were on the North end are in great condition, setting a record all time high average sale price!
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LB I O C E A NFR O NT N E WS L E T T E R
M ID 2 0 1 4
MID 2014 OCEANFRONT SALES from South to North TOWN
ADDRESS
SOUTH
SOLD
12505 THE DUNES Ocean Ave. 119 E. New BRIGHTON BEACH York Ave. 2014 AVG.
DATE
LIST
SELL
SELL/ FEET AGE ASSESS ASSESS ASSESS
PRICE$ PRICE $ LIST $ WTR
BUILD
LAND
TOTAL
SELL$/ #BEDR #BATH ASSESS$
6/17/14
2,495,000 2,398,000 96%
60
6
505800 1270500 1,776,300
1.35
4
3.5
3/10/14
1,695,000 1,525,000 90%
75
13
407,200 1,443,800 1,851,000
0.82
4.00
3.00
2,095,000 1,961,500 94%
68
10
456,500 1,357,150 1,813,650
1.08
4.00
3.25
1/29/14
1,195,000 1,130,000 95%
50
50
255,400 1,155,000 1,410,400
0.80
4.00
4.00
6/30/14
3,499,000 3,350,000 96%
50
7
687,300 1,166,600 1,853,900
1.81
5.00
5.00
1/10/14
2,150,000 2,000,000 93%
100
71
120,000 1,547,700 1,667,700
1.20
4.00
2.50
5/5/14
2,695,000 2,470,000 92%
55
1
522,600 1,155,000 1,677,600
1.47
5.00
4.50
4/7/14
1,699,000 1,699,000 100%
75
77
143,400 1,443,800 1,587,200
1.07
7.00
3.00
4/17/14
1,100,000 1,075,000 98%
60
55
182,750 1,234,871 1,417,621
0.76
6.00
2.00
5/22/14
1,850,000 1,725,000 93%
50
8
501,400
980,000 1,481,400
1.16
5.00
3.00
7 SOLD IN CENTER
2,026,857 1,921,286 95%
63
38
344,693 1,240,424 1,585,117
1.21
5.14
3.43
1/31/14
1,195,000 1,135,000 95%
50
26
268,818 1,148,549 1,417,367
0.80
3.00
2.50
6/27/14
1,899,000 1,845,000 97%
55
21
346,500 1,135,300 1,481,800
1.25
4.00
3.00
5/22/14
2,725,000 2,500,000 92%
100
34
459,735 1,984,861 2,444,596
1.02
3.00
2.50
1,049,000
999,000 95%
50
57
194,400 1,160,900 1,355,300
0.74
4.00
2.50
1,717,000 1,619,750 94%
64
35
317,363 1,357,403 1,674,766
0.97
3.50
2.63
13 SOLD IN MID 2014 1,942,000 1,834,692 94%
64
33
353,485 1,294,375 1,647,860
1.11
4.46
3.15
2 SOLD IN SOUTH
CENTER BRANT BEACH BRANT BEACH BRANT BEACH BRANT BEACH BRANT BEACH SURF CITY SURF CITY 2014 AVG.
7213 Ocean Blvd. 6505 Ocean Blvd. 5803 Ocean Blvd. 5503 Ocean Blvd. 5413 Ocean Blvd. 4 Division Ave. 301 E. Ocean Ave.
NORTH 13 East Cape May HARVEY CEDARS Ave. 12-A E. HARVEY CEDARS Essex Ave. 13 East 85th HARVEY CEDARS St.
1507 BARNEGAT LIGHT Seaview Ave 1/20/14 2014 AVG.
2014 AVG LBI
4 SOLD IN NORTH
For properties currently available for sale and for those under contract, please feel free to call me or visit www.lbisales.com. I would be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing computer detailed reports and/or generate automatic updates with your personal criteria!
LBI is Back in Full Action The summer of 2013 was difficult for both homeowners and businesses on LBI since many properties affected by Hurricane Sandy were still being renovated or rebuilt. The good news is that LBI is coming to life again this summer of 2014, evident by the large number of properties being elevated, renovated or completely rebuilt and the many businesses that are reopening. The beaches are filled with vacationers enjoying all that summer offers here on our 18 miles of white sand with clean warm waters and sunny, carefree days. Business owners are reporting an increase in revenue as many restaurants and shops are once again filled with patrons. With so much to offer to residents and visitors alike, it is encouraging to see that our beautiful Island is once again a favorite vacation destination. Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Jersey Shore Regional Multiple Listing Service Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Egon Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This newsletter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Egon Willy Kahl. ©
MID 2014
LB I O C E A NFR O NT N E WS L E T T E R
PAGE 3
Oceanfront Sales Volume is Back to Normal So far this year, we have had 13 Oceanfront sales in the first six months. Also the supply has been fairly steady with 49 being the average number of single family ocean fronts for sale. Last year, there were only 17 Oceanfront single family home sales the entire year, partially due to Sandy. I calculate our supply to demand curve by dividing the number of oceanfront properties sold in the latest half year period by the amount of oceanfront properties currently for sale. These are two key factors to prices stabilizing with values on the rise in the near future. This 2014 first half, our supply vs. demand ratio is 0.27, much better than our 2013 supply vs. demand ratio of 0.185. I feel this ratio will gain quickly as time goes on and sales volume rises once again. Currently, there are 48 oceanfront properties available for sale, a little more than 2013 where the was 46 available. Also more than the 38 available in 2012, but less than the 55 available at this time 2011. There were 59 homes listed for sale during the first half of 2010. Our record low of 15 oceanfront homes on the market was in 2002. Our high was 101 oceanfront homes available in 1993. There are approximately 1100 oceanfront homes on LBI. OCEANFRONT SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE 100
1.40
90
1.20
80
1.00
70 60
0.80
50 0.60
40 30
0.40
20
0.20
10 0
0.00
SOLD DEM/SUP
AVAIL.
FEATURED PROPERTIES BRANT BEACH OCEANFRONT -Superlative Reversed Living Oceanfront, Breathtaking Views from every room, two master suites, two separate oceanfront living areas both with wet bars and counters, latest & greatest amenities, spectacular top floor open kitchen/dining/living, area with wet bar and gas fireplace. Three levels of spacious fiberglass decks including rooftop deck. Granite kitchen and wet bar counters, tile and hard wood flooring, brick pavers, cedar shake impression vinyl siding, professionally landscaped, two finished outside showers, master baths include jetted tubs, tastefully furnished, rentals exceed $120,000 this year. No Sandy damage, with terrific dune structures, a must see! $2,250,000. NORTH BEACH OCEANFRONT -80 feet on the Ocean plus a 20 foot easement creating the feeling of 100 feet on the Oceanfront! Guarded Beach, Quick walk to Surf City, tranquil location. Well Maintained 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, ranch with open oceanfront living, kitchen, dining area and fireplace. CAFRA permits are completed. Part of North Beach Estates, with deeded bay access and dock with slip could be yours also($350/year). Current CAFRA footprint is approximately 35 x 40.5 for structure plus larger footprint then existing oceanfront decks. Enjoy this adorable ranch for the summer and have plans to build your dream home soon! $1,770,000.
FIRST CLASS PRESORT MAIL U.S. POSTAGE PAID TOMS RIVER, NJ PERMIT NO. 77
Willy Kahl’s Oceanfront Newsletter Egon Willy Kahl / Broker of Record LBI Realty Group 1919 Long Beach Blvd. Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 EMAIL: WILLYKAHL@GMAIL.COM Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901
WWW.LBISALES.COM
Dependable Oceanfront Data Enclosed! For properties currently available for sale and those under contract, please feel free to call or email me. I’ll be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports!
Dependable Oceanfront Data Enclosed! 27 YEARS OF LBI OCEANFRONT DATA ANALYSIS In 1987, the Oceanfront sales market had peaked on LBI. Six and seven years later I was selling oceanfront homes for approximately 25% less than the 1987 climatic sales market. Then Oceanfront land began appreciating slowly from 1992 to 1998. In that time period, the average oceanfront home increased a total of 24%. Over the next seven years (19992006), they increased another 329% - bringing total appreciation up 353% from the low of 1992 to the high of 2006! The average oceanfront value in 1992 was $553,844 and had peaked in 2006 to $$2,508,891. (Multiplied by 453%, subtracting the initial price brings us up 353%). I feel history is repeating itself with approximate timing, appreciation & depreciation. We have already experienced the seven or so years of a depreciating LBI home sales market from the 2006 peak. From the peak, values were down approximately 20% on oceanfront and approximately 30% on bayfronts. Oceanfronts are slowly going back up in value and bayfronts should follow soon. Most Buyers are more likely to purchase a property if the Seller is asking a fair price reflective of today’s market value. These buyers are excited that they are able to afford a vacation home on LBI! With attractive mortgage interest rates and competitive asking prices, along with a variety of properties to choose from, it’s a great time to buy or sell on LBI! Get the LBI Oceanfront Newsletter before it hits the press! Please e-mail Willy Kahl at willykahl@gmail.com and tell him you prefer these newsletters via e-mail today!