Egon Willy Kahl L B I R e a l t y G r o u p , O wn e r / B r o k er — O c e a n f r o n t S p e c i a l i s t 1 9 1 9 L o n g B e a c h B l vd . , S h i p B o t t o m , NJ 0 8 0 0 8
Cell (609) 709-1020 Office (609) 494—8900
Fax (609) 494-8901
wi l l yk a h l @ g m a i l . c o m , we b s i t e : w w w. L B I s a l e s . c o m
LBI OCEANFRONT NEWSLETTER MID YEAR 2011 OCEANFRONT STUDY • • •
Features: Values of Oceanfront Properties
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LBI Single Family Oceanfront Sales Spreadsheet Average Sales Price per Foot Chart
• • • •
Supply vs. Demand Curve on the rise Supply vs. Demand Chart Featured Properties Emails -Faster & Preferred New Oceanfront Listing
This study has been created for Long Beach Island homeowners and buyers as a guide to evaluate the current market values of single-family Oceanfront properties on Long Beach Island. I hope this information is of value to you! Egon Willy Kahl
Values of Oceanfront Properties have risen 396% since 1992 Oceanfront data varies so much that I have computed a more leveraged curve by calculating the price per foot of ocean frontage for single family oceanfront properties. To see how much an oceanfront home is valued, the following numbers should be multiplied by the oceanfront footage. My data shows that values of oceanfront properties are higher now than back in 2004, based on average sales per linear foot. The average sale prices per linear foot each year are as follows: $7,662 in 1992, $29,069 in 2004, $33,466 in 2005, $34,709 in 2006, $29,618 in 2007, $33,971 for 2008, $31,966 for 2009, $30,102 for 2010 and is $30,368 for this first half of 2011. Of course, this average varies from town-to-town, condition of home, and depth of lot. To calculate the current value of an average oceanfront property, multiply the amount of oceanfront feet by $30,368. From 1992 to present, the average linear foot calculates to 72.12 feet of ocean frontage per sale, so the average price this year is $2,190,140 ($30,368. X 72.12 ft.). The average sale price of a single family oceanfront property on LBI has risen 396% since 1992! This means the same oceanfront home purchased for $500,000 in 1992 is valued today at $1,980,000! This holds true despite a depressed market! 2010 and thus far 2011 have proven to have increasing sales activity and a higher supply/demand ratio than in 2009, and it appears the value of oceanfront properties may be leveling off. The average sale price of oceanfront properties have decreased in value approximately 15% since the peak. The yearly sale prices vary more than anticipated since the class of oceanfront properties sold differs every year. In 2006, many oceanfront homes that sold were new construction, bringing higher than expected values. In 2007, the majority of oceanfront properties that sold were teardowns, creating a decline in values. In 2008, the sale of oceanfront property in North Beach, Loveladies, and on oversized lots in Barnegat Light increased the average values for two reasons. The majority of homes were newly constructed and the north end location also holds the highest land values on LBI. These sales created a higher than average sale price for oceanfront properties than expected in 2008. In 2009, we had north end properties selling. In 2010, the number of north end properties selling were below average, bringing average prices down. So far this year, the average age of a home is 28, much older than average. The graph on page 2 shows us these new values and how they increased and then slightly decreased over the years. The current frontage average along the ocean is 72.12 feet, which includes all of the oceanfront sales since 1992. For greater detail of oceanfront homes that have sold this year, see the next page of this report which is a spreadsheet created from the south end to the north end of L.B.I. For properties currently available for sale and for those under contract, please feel free to call me or visit www.lbisales.com. I would be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing computer detailed reports and/or generate automatic updates with your personal criteria.
PAGE 2
LB I O C E A N F R O N T N E WS L E T T E R
MID YEAR 2011
LBI MID 2011 OCEANFRONT SALES from South to North TOWN
ADDRESS
SOUTH
DATE
LIST
SOLD
PRICE
HOLGATE
4911 S. 5/17/11 LBB HOLGATE 2503 S. 4/8/11 LBB BEACH HAVEN 1001 S. 2/4/11 Atlantic Ave. SPRAY BEACH 208 E. 26th 6/15/11 St. N. BEACH HAVEN 208 E. 20th 5/20/11 St. PEHALA PARK 120 E. Sea- 2/3/11 breeze Ave. BEACH HAVEN 120 E. Mas- 6/17/11 CREST sachusetts Ave. MID 2011 AVG. 7 SOLD IN SOUTH
SELL
SELL/ FEET AGE ASSESS ASSESS ASSESS
PRICE $ LIST $ WTR
1,049,000
BUILD
LAND
SELL$/ #BEDR #BATH
TOTAL ASSESS$
950,000 91%
50
30
237,700 1,155,000 1,392,700
0.68
4.00
3.00
2,990,000 2,650,000 89%
75
4
730,200 1,443,800 2,174,000
1.22
5.00
5.50
1,950,000 1,850,000 95%
100
65
92,600 2,448,000 2,540,600
0.73
3.00
3.00
3,495,000 3,100,000 89%
70
8
911,200 1,386,000 2,297,200
1.35
5.00
6.00
1,875,000 1,650,000 88%
50
25
296,000 1,155,000 1,451,000
1.14
4.00
3.00
2,375,000 2,100,000 88%
54
2
487,800 1,201,200 1,689,000
1.24
4.00
5.00
2,399,000 2,150,000 90%
70
5
512,300 1,386,000 1,898,300
1.13
5.00
3.50
2,304,714 2,064,286 90%
67
20
466,829 1,453,571 1,920,400
1.07
4.29
4.14
1,575,000 1,250,000 79%
50
33
151,900 1,155,000 1,306,900
0.96
4.00
2.50
1,399,000 1,287,000 92%
50
41
128,000 1,155,000 1,283,000
1.00
6.00
2.00
1,399,000 1,260,000 90%
50
33
223,900 1,040,000 1,263,900
1.00
3.00
2.00
1,390,000 1,260,000 91%
50
51
57,500 1,050,000 1,107,500
1.14
3.00
1.50
1,440,750 1,264,250 88%
50
40
140,325 1,100,000 1,240,325
1.02
4.00
2.00
9 Seaview 6/6/11 3,499,000 3,000,000 86% Drive North BARNEGAT LIGHT 1913 5/11/11 1,749,000 1,575,000 90% Seaview Ave. MID 2011 AVG. 2 SOLD IN NORTH 2,624,000 2,287,500 87%
80
21
457,900 2,022,500 2,480,400
1.21
6.00
3.00
50
51
136,300 1,138,100 1,274,400
1.24
4.00
3.00
65
36
297,100 1,580,300 1,877,400
1.22
5.00
3.00
MID 2011 AVG LBI
61
28
340,254 1,364,277 1,704,531
1.09
4.31
3.31
CENTER BRANT BEACH BRANT BEACH SURF CITY SURF CITY MID 2011 AVG.
5503 Ocean 2/8/11 Blvd. 3911 Ocean 3/30/11 Blvd. 6 E. 32rd 2/4/11 St. 2313 Ocean 4/14/11 Ave. 4 SOLD IN CENTER
NORTH LOVELADIES
13 SOLD MID 2011 2,088,000 1,852,462 89%
AVERAGE OCEANFRONT SALE PRICE PER FOOT 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000
19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 1s 10 t2 01 1
0
SOUTH
CENTER
NORTH
AVG. Price
Price/avg.ft.
Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Jersey Shore Regional Multiple Listing Service Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Egon Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This newsletter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Egon Willy Kahl. ©
M ID YE A R 2 0 1 1
LB I O C E A N F R O N T N E WS L E T T E R
PAGE 3
SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE ON THE RISE SINCE 2009 There have been 13 single family oceanfront sales this first half year, much better than the 14 total sales for the entire 2009 year! Even more good news, the number of oceanfronts for sale has decreased from 61.5 in 2009 to currently 57. There are two key factors to prices leveling and perhaps soon to be slowly climbing. This year, our new supply vs. demand ratio is .23 ( 2010 was .22 for the 1st half and .31 for the second half). This is comparable to 1996 when prices began to rise! 2009 however was one of the worst with a supply vs. demand ratio of 0.115. That is the lowest it has been since I began documenting data in 1992. Currently there are 57 oceanfront properties available for sale reduced from the 59 available during the first half of 2010. Our record low of 15 oceanfronts on the market was in 2002. Our high was 101 oceanfront homes available in 1993. There are approximately 1100 oceanfront homes on LBI. Simple economics states that if there is an abundance of a product (oceanfront homes) and few consumers (Buyers) values will decline. It is when we reach an equal number of Buyers and Sellers that values become stable. When the product is scarce and the demand is high values increase. During 2002 supply vs. demand ratio was the highest in 21 years at 1.09 for oceanfront sales. OCEANFRONT SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
2N D 1S '9 2 2N T '9 D 3 1S '9 3 2N T '9 D 4 1S '9 4 2N T '9 D 5 1S '9 5 2N T '9 D 6 1S '9 6 2N T '9 7 D 1S '9 7 2N T '9 8 D 1S '9 8 2N T '9 D 9 1S '9 9 2N T '0 D 0 1S '0 0 2N T '0 D 1 1S '0 1 2N T '0 D 2 1S '0 2 2N T '0 D 3 1S '0 3 2N T '0 D 4 1S '0 4 2N T '0 D 5 1S '0 5 2N T '0 6 D 1S '0 6 2N T '0 D 7 1S '0 7 2N T '0 D 8 1S '0 8 2N T '0 D 9 1S '0 9 2N T '1 0 D 1S '1 T 0 '1 1
100 80 60 40 20 0
SOLD
AVAIL.
DEM/SUP
Oceanfront—Just SOLD Just Sold: Seventy Feet on the ocean with breathtaking views throughout, this home features all of the latest and greatest amenities, plus wrap around decks on each level plu a multilevel rooftop deck with elevator! Reversed living offers views galore from the spacious living, kitchen, dining areas. Kitchen features include granite tops with tiled backsplash, sub-zero refrigerator, Viking oven, and hardwood floors. The living area has an oversized granite wet bar with mini fridge & wine storage, gas fireplace, plasma TV with surround sound. A second family/entertainment room with surround sound could easily convert to a fifth bedroom. The middle level consists of two master suites, one with double sinks and walk in closet.
LBI Property Searches-Best Deals Personalized For You I would be happy to set you up with automatic updates on LBI properties that interest you most. E-mail me at willykahl@gmail.com with the answer to any or all of the following: Type of home: (Residential, Duplex, Condo, Vacant Land) Location: (Oceanside, Bayside, Oceanfront, Bayfront, Lagoonfront, Waterfront) Towns: (Barnegat Light, Loveladies, Harvey Cedars, North Beach, Surf City, Ship Bottom, Brant Beach, …North Beach Haven, Beach Haven, Holgate) Minimum Number of Bedrooms, Minimum Number of Bathrooms, Age, Price Range, Minimum Square Feet of home Feel free to add more items that you would like. I’ll set you up with automatic e-mails right away!
FIRST CLASS PRESORTED U.S. POSTAGE PAID TOMS RIVER, NJ PERMIT NO. 77
Willy Kahl’s Oceanfront Newsletter Egon Willy Kahl / Broker of Record LBI Realty Group 1919 Long Beach Blvd. Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901 EMAIL: WILLYKAHL@GMAIL.COM
WWW.LBISALES.COM
Dependable Oceanfront Data Enclosed! For properties currently available for sale and those under contract, please feel free to call me. I’ll be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports!
Dependable Oceanfront Data Enclosed! 80 feet on the Oceanfront For Sale– Just Listed 80 feet of prime oceanfront in Surf City bordering North Beach. A premier Surf City location with breathtaking views! Existing house is situated on the oceanfront building line and offers magnificent unobstructed views. Application in process for CAFRA permit to construct a large oceanfront home with oversized eastern and southern decks. Over sized lot includes 80 feet of ocean frontage with 200 feet of depth. Existing classic beach house features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, wraparound decks on east and south sides, brick wood burning fireplace, hardwood floors and an oversized screened porch. $1,799,000.
E-Mails -Highly Preferred Get the LBI Oceanfront Newsletter before they hit the press! Willy Kahl prefers e-mailing you these newsletters. They come out twice a year, and your e-mail address will remain confidential. Please e-mail Willy Kahl at willykahl@gmail.com and tell him you prefer these newsletters via e-mail today!