Willy Kahl LBI REALTY GROUP, Broker of Record-Oceanfront Specialist 1919 Long Beach Blvd., Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 willykahl@gmail.com www.LBIsales.com Office (609) 494-8900
Fax (609) 494-8901
LBI OCEANFRONT NEWSLETTER MID 2013 OCEANFRONT STUDY
Features: Single Family Oceanfront Values Oceanfront Single Family Sales Data Oceanfront Average Sales Price Chart
Supply vs. Demand Chart Featured Properties Flood Insurance Premiums New Advisory Base Flood Elevations
This study has been created for Long Beach Island homeowners and buyers as a guide to evaluate the current market values of single-family Oceanfront properties on Long Beach Island. I hope this information is of value to you! Willy Kahl
Values of Single Family Oceanfront Properties The average oceanfront price has increased to $2,299,900 this first half of 2013. There have been no oceanfront sales on the Southern end of the Island (Brighton Beach to Holgate), so I duplicated the southern end value from last year. And surprisingly enough, the majority of oceanfront properties that sold might be considered tear downs. Many sales have occurred on the North end, which usually brings values up. The average price of an oceanfront sale in 2012 was $1,851,048 and the average oceanfront property sold had 69 linear feet on the oceanfront. This average was extremely low. I have concluded that of the 27 properties sold in 2012, 23 were 19 years of age or older. With so many older properties that sold, some of which were purchased as tear downs, it is not fair to include the average price in analysis when in previous years the properties sold were much newer construction. Oceanfront data varies so much that I have computed a more leveraged curve by calculating the price per foot of ocean frontage for single family oceanfront properties. To see how much an oceanfront property is valued the following numbers should be multiplied by the oceanfront footage. My data shows that values of oceanfront properties are higher now than back in 2004 based on average sales per linear foot. The average sale prices per linear foot each year are as follows: $7,662 in 1992, $29,069 in 2004, $33,466 in 2005, $34,709 in 2006, $29,618 in 2007, $33,971for 2008, $31,966 for 2009, $30,102 for 2010 and $32,061 for 2011. With the numerous teardowns which have sold this past year, 2012 held a value of only $26,827. This year so far, we have increased back up to $29,112. Of course this average varies from town-to-town, condition of home, and depth of lot. To calculate the current value of an average oceanfront property multiply the amount of oceanfront feet by $24,465 (if older home) to $32,061(if newer home in great condition). From 1992 to present the average linear foot calculates to 72.43 feet of ocean frontage per sale. 2010, 2011 and 2012 have shown increasing sales activity and a higher supply/demand ratio than in 2009. Sandy is a temporary setback, and it still appears the value of oceanfront properties have leveled off and may even be slightly appreciating in value. Currently sales are extremely slow, mostly due to the aftermath of Sandy. The yearly sale prices vary more than anticipated because the type of oceanfront properties that have sold. In 2006, many oceanfront homes that sold were new construction, bringing higher than expected values. In 2007, the majority of oceanfront properties that sold were teardowns, creating a decline in values. In 2008, the sale of oceanfront property in North Beach, Loveladies, and on oversized lots in Barnegat Light increased the average values for two reasons. The majority of homes were newly constructed and north end of the Island locations also hold the highest land values on LBI. These sales created a higher than average sale price for oceanfront properties than expected in 2008. In 2009, there were not any north end properties that sold. In 2010, the number of north end properties that sold were below average, bringing average prices down. In 2011, new construction in North Beach included an entire tract which brought our average value up a bit. In 2012, many tear downs sold, two new-construction and one 5 years of age, bringing values down from 2011. This year we are back up a bit, which is great considering mostly teardowns have sold.
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LB I O C E A NFR O NT N E WS L E T T E R
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MID 2013 OCEANFRONT SALES from South to North TOWN
ADDRESS
SOUTH
DATE SOLD
LIST
SELL
SELL/ FEET AGE ASSESS ASSESS
PRICE$ PRICE $ LIST $ WTR
BUILD
ASSESS
LAND
TOTAL
SELL$/ #BEDR. #BATH ASSESS$
MID 2013 AVG. 0 SOLD IN SOUTH CENTER 307 N.
SURF CITY
3/29/13 1,495,500 1,480,000 99%
50
28
507,600 1,000,000
1,507,600
0.98
4.00
2.00
MID 2013 AVG. 1 SOLD IN CENTER 1,495,500 1,480,000 99%
50
28
507,600 1,000,000
1,507,600
0.98
4.00
2.00
6/17/13 2,650,000 2,250,000 85%
100
22
524,400 2,468,400
2,992,800
0.75
4.00
6.50
HARVEY CEDARS 5413C LBB
4/12/13 2,395,000 1,900,000 79%
60
25
619,200 1,354,100
1,973,300
0.96
5.00
4.50
HARVEY CEDARS 5415-C
5/10/13 2,099,000 1,969,500 94%
62
24
775,100 1,354,100
2,129,200
0.92
4.00
4.00
1/25/13 3,999,000 3,900,000 98%
125
22
844,000 3,012,500
3,856,500
1.01
5.00
4.50
NORTH NORTH BEACH 1003-D
LOVELADIES
91D LBB
MID 2013 AVG.
4 SOLD IN NORTH
2,785,750 2,504,875 90%
87
23
690,675 2,047,275
2,737,950
0.91
4.50
4.88
MID 2013 AVG
5 SOLD IN MID 2013 2,527,700 2,299,900 91%
79
24
654,060 1,837,820
2,491,880
0.92
4.40
4.30
OCEANFRONT AVERAGE SALE PRICE
4,000,000
3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000
0
SOUTH
CENTER
NORTH
AVG. Price
Price/avg.ft.
For properties currently available for sale and for those under contract, please feel free to call me or visit www.lbisales.com. I would be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing computer detailed reports and/or generate automatic updates with your personal criteria!
SUMMER 2013
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LB I O C E A NFR O NT N E WS L E T T E R
Oceanfront Sales Volume Drops for the First Time Since 2009 So far, there have only been 5 Oceanfront single family home sales for the first six months of 2013. This matches record lows of 2nd half of 2009 and also the second half of 1994. In addition, the number of oceanfront properties (supply) for sale has increased from 38 the last half of 2012 to 44 oceanfront properties currently listed for sale. The good news is there are currently 4 oceanfront properties under contract and it appears our 2nd half will continue to have many more sales than our first half of 2013! I calculate our supply to demand curve by dividing the number of oceanfront properties sold in the latest half year period by the amount of oceanfront properties currently for sale. These are two key factors to prices stabilizing with values on the rise in the near future. This first half of 2013 our supply vs. demand ratio is .11 which is much less than last year. We are in much better condition than back in '94, when the ratio dropped to .06, I feel this ratio will gain quickly as time goes on and sales volume becomes back to normal. Currently, there are 44 oceanfront properties available for sale, more than the 38 available last year, but better than the 55 available at this time 2011. There were 59 homes listed for sale during the first half of 2010. Our record low of 15 oceanfront homes on the market was in 2002. Our high was 101 oceanfront homes available in 1993. There are approximately 1100 oceanfront homes on LBI. OCEANFRONT SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE 100
1.40
90
1.20
80
1.00
70 60
0.80
50
0.60
40 30
0.40
20
0.20
10 0
0.00
SOLD
AVAIL.
DEM/SUP
PROPERTIES JUST SOLD NORTH BEACH OCEANFRONT
SHIP BOTTOM OCEANFRONT
BEACH HAVEN GARDENS BAYFRONT
UNDER CONTRACT HOLGATE OCEANFRONT
Get the LBI Oceanfront Newsletter before it hits the press! Please e-mail Willy Kahl at willykahl@gmail.com and tell him you prefer these newsletters via e-mail today!
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LB I O C E A NFR O NT N E WS L E T T E R
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Featured Properties Harvey Cedars Bayfront- Fully furnished and tastefully decorated newer home in desirable on Harvest Cove. Vinyl bulkhead with deep water slip and dock. Numerous decks including rooftop offer magnificent views of cove, open bay and even a glimpse of ocean! Home designed by Studio Tagland and features,four bedrooms and three fully tiled baths (one with Jacuzzi jet tub), stainless appliances, hurricane windows, beautifully landscaped, trex decks and dock, brick pavers and cedar shake impression siding. Turn Key $849,000.
Harvey Cedars Lagoonfront - Reversed Living Lagoon Front with Bay Views, Open Living, Kitchen, Dining Area,Granite Counters and Stainless Steel Appliances, Cathedral Ceilings, Two levels of Wrap Around Decks, Hard Wood Floors Throughout, Wood Burning Fireplace, Two Zone Central Air / Gas Heat, arge Master Suite w Master Bath, Outside Shower w Dressing Area, Beautifully Landscaped, Over sized 95 x 100 + Lagoon Front Lot, Nice Dock with Riparian, Easy to show $929,000. The Dunes: Exceptional Lagoonfront Home located in the prestigious Dunes section of LBI features 61 Feet of Deep Water frontage and is 4th from the bay with outstanding views of the open waters. Recently renovated 4 bedroom 3 full bath home, with over sized living room, separate den, additional TV room, dining room, recently updated kitchen and master suite bath, maintenance free vinyl siding, 25 x 55 new waterfront deck, Brick pavers, central air and gas heat, survived the 100 year storm high & dry! $949,000.
Ship Bottom Lagoonfront - Pristine Lagoonfront Reversed living Contempory with Stunning Views! All the latest and greatest, featuring spacious living, kitchen, dining area with gas fireplace, cathedral ceilings, a top floor bedroom/office, Elevator, gourmet kitchen, three levels of decks, large deep water dock, quality built by Jeff Seddon, oversized garages, close to boat ramp and bridges, tranquil neighborhood, shows like new! $1,184,900. I would be happy to set you up with automatic updates on LBI properties that interest you most. E-mail me at willykahl@gmail.com
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LB I O C E A NFR O NT N E WS L E T T E R
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Flood Insurance Premium Unknowns Now that summer has arrived, we can see that sales have tremendously declined since this same time period last year. The buyers looking for Island property are hesitant to proceed with a purchase and are looking for "good deals". Realistically, the number of buyers that are seriously looking to purchase has decreased by approximately 50%. Congress and President Obama signed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012, and as a result flood insurance rate subsidies will be phased out over the next five years. Many buyers are waiting for finalized flood maps to become available as well as additional information regarding future flood insurance rates. Following are the paragraphs I found most interesting on the website: http://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance-reform-act-2012#1 The Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012 (BW-12) is a law that extends the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) for five years, while requiring significant program reform. The law requires changes to all major components of the program, including flood insurance, flood hazard mapping, grants, and the management of floodplains. Many of the changes are designed to make the NFIP more financially stable, and ensure that flood insurance rates more accurately reflect the real risk of flooding. About 20 percent of all NFIP policies pay subsidized rates. Only a portion of those policies that are currently paying subsidized premiums will see larger premium increases of 25% annually starting this year, until their premiums are full-risk premiums. Five percent of policyholders – those with subsidized policies for non-primary residences, businesses, and severe repetitive loss properties - will see the 25% annual increases immediately. Subsidies will no longer be offered for policies covering newly purchased properties, lapsed policies, or new policies covering properties for the first time. Other actions will trigger immediate rate subsidy elimination. Subsidized premiums for primary residences in Special Flood Hazard Area’s will be able to keep their subsidized rates unless the property is sold, or the policy lapses, or property suffers severe damage often, or a new policy is purchased. The Act phases-out grandfathered rates and moves to current risk-based rates for most properties when the community adopts a new FIRM. Extremely low flood rates will continue to exist for properties elevated 4' above the Base Flood Elevation and fair flood rates will exist for those at the BFE. For more information pertaining to the Biggert-Waters Reform Act please visit:
http://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance-reform-act-2012#1
Release of the New Advisory Base Flood Elevations FEMA has released their 2nd revised flood maps, where the final mapping is planned for the latter half of 2014. The maps have been expedited in order to help towns and homeowners utilize the new guidelines instead of rebuilding using the guidelines of the old flood maps. The new maps, referred to as the BFE (Base Flood Elevation) maps are available online. The website provides information to find the actual BFE, in addition to a wealth of other information. These maps are not finalized and the 1994 maps are still in use. The new maps include x-zones and shaded x-zones to meet a standard of old A-zone. Currently, FEMA feels there is no flooding hazard here. Usually these are oceanblock properties in high areas. If you bought your property before July 15, 2012, your flood insurance will not rise more than 25% per year. Primary homes will be 5% increases rather than 25%. Older homes with basements or with low elevation (4 feet below the base flood) will have extremely high premiums. To learn of your properties previous flood elevation and to view the new proposed base flood elevation, type your address in at: http://www.region2coastal.com/sandy/table Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Jersey Shore Regional Multiple Listing Service Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Egon Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This newsletter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Egon Willy Kahl. ©
FIRST CLASS PRESORT MAIL U.S. POSTAGE PAID TOMS RIVER, NJ PERMIT NO. 77
Willy Kahl’s Oceanfront Newsletter Egon Willy Kahl / Broker of Record LBI Realty Group 1919 Long Beach Blvd. Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 EMAIL: WILLYKAHL@GMAIL.COM Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901
WWW.LBISALES.COM
Dependable Oceanfront Data Enclosed! For properties currently available for sale and those under contract, please feel free to call or email me. I’ll be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports!
Dependable Oceanfront Data Enclosed! FEATURED PROPERTY-LOVELADIES TRACT “SEAWORTHY”
This home on a magnificent full tract of oceanfront in the Estate section of Loveladies resembles a private island compound. Nantucket-style cedar shake beauty with everything for luxury shore living. Private beach, large deck with pool, two hot tubs, and stunning ocean and bay views. Outdoor grilling space on deck, three-season screened porch, and outdoor cabana/ bathroom. Gourmet chefs kitchen with spacious dining area, perfect for all your entertaining needs. House boasts six bedrooms, six full baths, and two half baths. Master suite on the first floor with Jacuzzi, ocean view, fireplace, wet bar, office, walk-in closet and full bath. Second floor has four large bedrooms, a second living room with wet bar, deck, and stairway to rooftop with hot tub. A wonderful family vacation hideaway or fantastic investment with great a rental history. A must see. $8,999,000.