Willy Kahl LBI REALTY GROUP, Broker of Record-Oceanfront Specialist 1919 Long Beach Blvd., Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 willykahl@gmail.com www.LBIsales.com Office (609) 494-8900
Fax (609) 494-8901
LBI OCEANFRONT NEWSLETTER YEAR END 2012 OCEANFRONT STUDY Features: Oceanfront Sales Volume Continues to Increase and Supply vs. Demand Curve Values of Single Family Oceanfront Properties & Chart
LBI Single Family Oceanfront Sales Spreadsheet Sandy and Our Sales Market Featured Properties Beach Front Easements Advisory Base Flood Elevations
This study has been created for Long Beach Island homeowners and buyers as a guide to evaluate the current market values of single-family Oceanfront properties on Long Beach Island. I hope this information is of value to you!
Willy Kahl
Oceanfront Sales Volume Continue to Increase since 2009 There were a total of 27 Oceanfront single family home sales in 2012. This is an increase from the 23 single family oceanfront sales in 2011 and substantially greater than the 14 total sales for the entire 2009 year! In addition, the number of oceanfront properties (supply) for sale has decreased from 61.5 in 2011 to just 38 oceanfront properties currently listed for sale. I calculate our supply to demand curve by dividing the number of oceanfront properties sold in the latest half year period by the amount of oceanfront properties currently for sale. These are two key factors to prices stabilizing with values on the rise in the near future. The 2012 supply vs. demand ratio is 0.30 compared to 2011 ratio of .21 (2010 was .265). This is comparable to 1997 when prices began to slowly rise! 2009 was one of the worst years with a supply vs. demand ratio of 0.115. That was the lowest it had been since I began documenting data in 1992. Please note that the majority of sales occurred before Sandy came and there has been very little activity since. Currently there are 38 oceanfront properties available for sale compared to the 55 available at this time 2011. There were 59 homes listed for sale during the first half of 2010. Our record low of 15 oceanfront homes on the market was in 2002. Our high was 101 oceanfront homes available in 1993. There are approximately 1100 oceanfront homes on LBI.
100
OCEANFRONT SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE
1.40 1.20
80
1.00
60
0.80
40
0.60 0.40
20
0.20
0
0.00
SOLD
AVAIL.
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Values of Single Family Oceanfront Properties The average price of an oceanfront sale in 2012 was $1,851,048 and the average oceanfront property sold had 69 linear feet on the oceanfront. This average was extremely low. I have concluded that of the 27 properties sold in 2012, 23 were 19 years of age or older. With so many older properties that sold, some of which were purchased as tear downs, it is not fair to include the average price in analysis when in previous years the properties sold were much newer construction. Also, this year there have been no tract sales (oceanfront to boulevard). Oceanfront data varies so much that I have computed a more leveraged curve by calculating the price per foot of ocean frontage for single family oceanfront properties. To see how much an oceanfront property is valued, the following numbers should be multiplied by the oceanfront footage. My data shows that values of oceanfront properties are higher now than back in 2003 based on average sales per linear foot. The average sale prices per linear foot each year are as follows: $7,662 in 1992, $29,069 in 2004, $33,466 in 2005, $34,709 in 2006, $29,618 in 2007, $33,971for 2008, $31,966 for 2009, $30,102 for 2010 and $32,061 for 2011. With the numerous teardowns which have sold this past year, 2012 holds a value of only $26,827. Of course this average varies from town-to-town, condition of home, and depth of lot. To calculate the current value of an average oceanfront property multiply the amount of oceanfront feet by $26,827 (if older home) to $32,061(if newer home or if in great condition). From 1992 to present the average linear foot calculates to 72.12 feet of ocean frontage per sale. The years 2010, 2011 and 2012 have shown increasing sales activity and a higher supply/demand ratio than in 2009. It appears the value of oceanfront properties may be leveling off and may even be slightly appreciating in value. Currently sales are extremely slow, in part due to the aftermath of Sandy, and I feel the sales activity will not increase until the late Spring. The yearly sale prices vary more than anticipated because the type of oceanfront properties that have sold differ every year. In 2006 many oceanfront homes that sold were new construction, bringing higher than expected values. In 2007 the majority of oceanfront properties that sold were teardowns, creating a decline in values. In 2008 the sale of oceanfront property in North Beach, Loveladies, and on oversized lots in Barnegat Light increased the average values for two reasons. The majority of homes were newly constructed and north end of the Island locations also hold the highest land values on LBI. These sales created a higher than average sale price for oceanfront properties than expected in 2008. In 2009 there were not any north end properOCEANFRONT AVERAGE SALE PRICE ties that sold. In 4,000,000 2010 the number of north end prop- 3,500,000 erties that sold were below aver- 3,000,000 age, bringing average prices down. 2,500,000 In 2011 new construction in North 2,000,000 Beach included an 1,500,000 entire tract which brought our aver- 1,000,000 age value up a bit. In 2012, many tear 500,000 downs erase word 0 have sold, two new construction and one 5 years of age, bringing valSOUTH CENTER NORTH ues down slightly from 2011.
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LB I O C E A NFR O NT N E WS L E T T E R
WINTER 2013
YEAR END 2012 OCEANFRONT SALES from South to North TOWN
ADDRESS
SOUTH
DATE SOLD
LIST
SELL
SELL/
FEET
PRICE$ PRICE $ LIST $
WTR
AGE
ASSESS ASSESS
ASSESS
SELL$/ ASSESS$
BUILD
LAND
TOTAL
#BED #BATH
HOLGATE
5211 S. LBB
10/16/12
1,250,000 1,150,000 92%
40
57
181,600
924,000
1,105,600
1.04
4.00
3.50
HOLGATE BEACH HAVEN (L.E.H.) BEACH HAVEN (L.E.H.) BEACH HAVEN (L.E.H.) BEACH HAVEN (L.E.H.)
4403 S. LBB
6/11/12
1,750,000 1,500,000 86%
75
39
178,300 1,409,100
1,587,400
0.94
5.00
4.00
221 Nelson Ave.
5/25/12
1,249,000 1,140,000 91%
50
27
122,300 1,266,000
1,388,300
0.82
4.00
3.00
905 S. Atlantic Ave.
3/21/12
1,395,000 1,312,500 94%
50
42
106,800 1,470,000
1,576,800
0.83
3.00
1.00
2 E. Marine St.
1/4/12
1,997,000 1,800,000 90%
100
42
131,000 1,296,000
1,427,000
1.26
5.00
3.00
2 E. Marine St.
12/13/12
3,875,000 3,500,000 90%
100
0
871,875 1,296,000
2,167,875
1.61
6.00
7.00
123 E. South Carolina Ave.
8/31/12
1,950,000 1,800,000 92%
60
74
147,300 1,270,500
1,417,800
1.27
4.00
3.00
118 E. Virginia Ave.
3/29/12
2,499,000 2,250,000 90%
65
24
448,500 1,328,300
1,776,800
1.27
4.00
3.00
5/18/12
1,999,900 1,880,000 94%
80
27
302,400 1,501,500
1,803,900
1.04
5.00
3.50
5/24/12
1,499,000 1,296,000 86%
75
26
228,200 1,443,800
1,672,000
0.78
4.00
2.50
1,946,390 1,762,850 91%
70
36
271,828 1,320,520
1,592,348
1.11
4.40
3.35
HAVEN BEACH HAVEN BEACH BEACH HAVEN PARK BRIGHTON BEACH 2012AVG.
122 E. Muriel Ave (98th) 117 E. Connecticut Ave. (83rd) 10 SOLD IN
SOUTH
CENTER BRANT BEACH
3509 Ocean Blvd.
6/11/12
1,375,000 1,312,500 95%
50
42
249,900 1,155,000
1,404,900
0.93
4.00
3.50
BRANT BEACH
3101 Ocean Blvd.
6/15/12
1,199,000 1,025,000 85%
40
72
214,100
924,000
1,138,100
0.90
4.00
2.00
SURF CITY
1 E. Division Ave.
4/3/12
2,095,000 1,825,000 87%
80
17
632,100 1,150,000
1,782,100
1.02
4.00
4.00
SURF CITY
1205 N. Ocean Ave.
4/4/12
1,795,000 1,599,999 89%
50
8
504,300 1,150,000
1,654,300
0.97
4.00
3.50
SURF CITY
1519 N. Ocean Ave.
12/21/12
1,925,000 1,880,000 98%
40
16
552,200
900,000
1,452,200
1.29
5.00
3.50
SURF CITY
6 N. 23rd St.
5/3/12
2,279,000 2,125,000 93%
50
1
601,600 1,040,000
1,641,600
1.29
5.00
4.50
SURF CITY
2411 N. Ocean Ave.
1/4/12
1,799,000 1,575,000 88%
80
62
137,400 1,325,500
1,462,900
1.08
4.00
2.00
CENTER
1,781,000 1,620,357 91%
56
31
413,086 1,092,071
1,505,157
1.08
4.29
3.29
1095-C LBB
2/7/12
2,890,000 2,176,250 75%
100
19
816,900 2,462,500
3,279,400
0.66
4.00
3.50
HARVEY CEDARS
14 E Cape May Ave
1/6/12
1,649,000 1,530,000 93%
50
27
368,100 1,150,000
1,518,100
1.01
4.00
2.50
HARVEY CEADRS
11 E. Atlantic Ave.
6/15/12
2,350,000 2,200,000 94%
100
19
430,300 1,843,000
2,273,300
0.97
4.00
3.00
HARVEY CEDARS
14 E. 73rd St.
10/16/12
1,999,000 1,600,000 80%
100
20
300,000 1,035,000
1,335,000
1.20
5.00
2.00
HARVEY CEDARS
11 E. 80th St.
7/3/12
1,850,000 1,750,000 95%
50
28
316,400 1,271,500
1,587,900
1.10
4.00
2.50
LOVELADIES
10 S. Seaview Dr.
1/12/12
2,500,000 2,150,000 86%
80
59
91,500 2,022,500
2,114,000
1.02
5.00
2.00
LOVELADIES
169 E LBB
7/16/12
3,799,000 3,250,000 86%
125
31
310,100 3,012,500
3,322,600
0.98
5.00
4.00
BARNEGAT LIGHT
11 E. 29th St.
9/7/12
3,100,000 2,900,000 94%
65
5
447,400 2,095,000
2,542,400
1.14
5.00
4.50
BARNEGAT LIGHT
2007 Seaview Ave.
9/7/12
1,749,000 1,600,000 91%
50
25
416,600 1,174,000
1,590,600
1.01
5.00
3.00
2012 AVG.
7 SOLD IN
NORTH NORTH BEACH
2012 AVG.
9 SOLD IN
NORTH
2,431,778 2,128,472 88%
80
26
388,589 1,785,111
2,173,700
0.98
4.56
3.00
2012 AVG LBI
26 SOLD IN
2012
2,069,881 1,851,048 89%
69
31
350,276 1,419,835
1,770,111
1.05
4.42
3.21
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Featured Properties NORTH BEACH CONTEMPORARY OCEANFRONT 4 Bedroom plus TV area 5.5 Baths All rooms with Ocean View Elevator Custom Kitchen
2,650,000.
BEACH HAVEN PARK CONTEMPORARY 91 FEET on BAY 6 Bedrooms 3.5 Baths Riparian Grant Partial Bay Beach Panoramic Bay Views
BEACH HAVEN GARDENS BAYFRONT with DOCK 5 Bedrooms 3.5 Baths Bay Vews Riparian Grant
1,299,000. HARVEY CEDARS OCEANFRONT 3 Bedrooms 2.5 Baths Fascinating View Reversed Living Open Living, Kitchen and Dining Area
1,499,000.
1,199,000. HARVEY CEDARS LAGOONFRONT OVERSIZED LOT 3 Bedrooms 2.5 Baths Riparian Grant Reversed Living Open Living, Kitchen and Dining Area
THE DUNES LAGOONFRONT with BAY VIEWS 4 Bedrooms 3 Baths Fully Furnished 61 feet on deep water lagoon
999,000.
975,000.
PEAHALA PARK BAYFRONT
SHIP BOTTOM LAGOONFRONT
Sandy “Tear Down” or Rebuild 1st level 5 Bedrooms 2 Baths 80 feet on Bayfront C.A.F.R.A. permits applied for 80 ft. vinyl bulkhead Panoramic Views Riparian
5 Bedrooms 2.5 Baths Reversed Living Elevator Open Living, Kitchen and Dining Area
1,189,000.
995,000. SHIP BOTTOM MOTHER/ DAUGHTER 80 X 100 LOT 4 Bedrooms 2 Full Baths 2 Half-Baths Raised Ranch Fully Furnished
BARNEGAT LIGHT OCEANFRONT Duplex 6 Bedrooms 2 Baths Private northern corner Lot View of Inlet and Ocean Open Floor Plans
1,099,000.
549,000.
I would be happy to set you up with automatic updates on LBI properties that interest you most. E-mail me at willykahl@gmail.com
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TIME SENSITIVE INFORMATION REGARDING BEACH FRONT EASEMENTS I attended a meeting with Mayor Mancini of Long Beach Township on February 7. The meeting focused on the aftermath of Sandy and the importance of oceanfront property owners understanding the facts regarding beachfront easements. The Mayor shared the following information which is very important and time sensitive: The signatures from oceanfront owners is an acknowledgment by the homeowner for author ized personnel from the Army Core of Engineers or DEP to take action to build and maintain the physical integrity of our beaches and dunes The easements do not create the right for public access, or even access by the Army Core of Engineers, to go down a private lane or across an oceanfront property There will be no bathrooms, boardwalk, or anything else constructed on the dunes It is imperative that every oceanfront homeowner sign the easement authorization by March 1, 2013. If our communities do not have 100% support in favor of dune replenishment the millions of dollars offered by the federal government will no longer be available to LBI and will instead be used in New York or elsewhere. For all Long Beach Township homeowners that have not signed, Mayor Mancini would personally welcome your call and may be reached directly at his office 609-361-6689. Mayor Huelsenbeck has stated the ocean came over the dunes in Ship Bottom and our properties were flooded primarily from the ocean, not the bay. The towns that had the replenishment project had little to no damage by comparison. For Ship Bottom property owners, please call Mayor Huelsenbeck at (609) 494-2171 x 116. Mayor Keeler of Beach Haven has stated that they only need three more signatures, and is confident he will have them by the end of February. Holgate is in need of just one more signature. Some towns such as Ship Bottom, Loveladies, and North Beach are still in need as many as 25 more signatures.
The New Advisory Base Flood Elevations FEMA has released their revised flood maps which were originally scheduled to be released in 2015. The maps have been expedited in order to help towns and homeowners utilize the new guidelines instead of rebuilding using the guidelines of the current flood maps. The 2015 maps, referred to as the ABFE (advisory base flood elevation) maps are available online. The website provides information to find the recommended ABFE, in addition to a wealth of other information. Currently, it appears most LBI townships will conform with the new Advisory base flood elevations, but it will not be official until summer and not take effect until 18-24 months from now. To learn of your properties current flood elevation and to view the new advisory base flood elevation, type your address in at: http://www.region2coastal.com/sandy/table On January 24, 2013, Governor Chris Christie announced new emergency regulations issued by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) adopting the FEMA flood maps, which provide rebuilding standards in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene and Superstorm Sandy in New Jersey. The new maps, while already issued by FEMA, will not take effect for 18-24 months, potentially leaving property owners in a state of limbo as to whether they should rebuild their properties today or wait up to two years until the new maps are adopted. Under federal law property owners in flood prone areas whose property was damaged greater than 50% automatically must meet current rebuilding and height standards. Those whose properties sustained damage of 50% or less are not required to meet current rebuilding and height standards. However if reconstruction is not according to the new regulations the cost of future flood insurance may be substantially greater. These new flood maps have been underway for quite some time. Since Sandy’s unwelcome arrival, the new map regulations will be adapted quicker than expected. Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Jersey Shore Regional Multiple Listing Service Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Egon Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This newsletter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Egon Willy Kahl. ©
FIRST CLASS PRESORT MAIL U.S. POSTAGE PAID TOMS RIVER, NJ PERMIT NO. 77
Willy Kahl’s Oceanfront Newsletter Egon Willy Kahl / Broker of Record LBI Realty Group 1919 Long Beach Blvd. Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 EMAIL: WILLYKAHL@GMAIL.COM Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901
WWW.LBISALES.COM
Dependable Oceanfront Data Enclosed! For properties currently available for sale and those under contract, please feel free to call or email me. I’ll be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports!
Dependable Oceanfront Data Enclosed! TIME SENSITIVE INFORMATION REGARDING BEACH FRONT EASEMENTS I attended a meeting with Mayor Mancini of Long Beach Township on February 7. The meeting focused on the aftermath of Sandy and the importance of oceanfront property owners understanding the facts regarding beachfront easements. The Mayor shared the following information which is very important and time sensitive. Please refer to page 5 for all the details.
SANDY AND OUR SALES MARKET Now that the beginning of February has arrived, we can see that sales have tremendously declined since this same time period last year. The buyers that are here are strong, and are looking for great deals, however the number of buyers that are actively looking has decreased. Many properties that were under contract prior to Sandy have since closed. However, contracts on properties that were severely damaged may have been canceled by the buyer. I would guesstimate that 50% of our contracts on LBI were cancelled. Hopefully these buyers will reconsider after repairs are finished and the property is back to it's original condition. Some properties have recently sold after renovations were completed. Many buyers are waiting for new flood maps to become available as well as additional information regarding future flood insurance rates. With few buyers, and so many properties for sale, values may temporarily decline. Currently there are a few very attractively priced waterfront properties for sale that I anticipate selling soon. I would expect this will readjust upwards in the near future, as the Real Estate market has turned around in the U.S. and prices are rising again in general.