Willy Kahl LBI REALTY GROUP, Broker of Record-Oceanfront Specialist 1919 Long Beach Blvd., Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 willykahl@gmail.com www.LBIsales.com Office (609) 494-8900
Fax (609) 494-8901
LBI OCEANFRONT NEWSLETTER 2013 YEAR END OCEANFRONT STUDY
Features: Single Family Oceanfront Values Oceanfront Single Family Sales Data Oceanfront Sales Price Chart
Beach Replenishment Project Supply vs. Demand Chart Featured Property
This study has been created for Long Beach Island homeowners and buyers as a guide to evaluate the current market values of single-family Oceanfront properties on Long Beach Island. I hope this information is of value to you! WillyKahl
Values of Single Family Oceanfront Property at an All Time Record High The average oceanfront price on LBI has increased to an all time record high of $2,959,529 for 2013! This is partly due to the numerous sales of oceanfront property on the north end of the Island which increased values much higher than expected. In general oceanfront property values have turned around and are beginning to appreciate once again! The average price of an oceanfront sale in 2013 had an inflated value of $2,959,529 (vs. $1,851,048 average in 2012). The average oceanfront property sold also had 84 linear feet on the oceanfront (vs. 69 in 2012). This average was extremely high. 10 of the 17 oceanfront sales were on the North end of LBI (North Beach, Harvey Cedars, Loveladies, and Barnegat Light). Here the average sale price was $3,836,950. It's great to know the high value dollar sales are back and high end buyers are once again investing on LBI! However, looking into the future, we can see the value is very inflated, as a tear down with 84' on the water in Brant Beach just sold for $2,000,000 and 3 others currently under contract have a similar low price value per foot of oceanfront sale. Oceanfront data varies so much that I have computed a more leveraged curve by calculating the price per foot of ocean frontage for single family oceanfront properties. To see how much an oceanfront property is valued the following numbers should be multiplied by the oceanfront footage. The average sale prices per linear foot each year are as follows: $7,662 in 1992, $29,069 in 2004, $33,466 in 2005, $34,709 in 2006, $29,618 in 2007, $33,971for 2008, $31,966 for 2009, $30,102 for 2010 and $32,061 for 2011. With the numerous teardowns which have sold, 2012 held a value of only $26,827 per linear foot. 2013 increased to a record high of $35,232 per linear foot. Of course this average varies from town-to-town, condition of home, and depth of lot. To calculate the current value of an average oceanfront property multiply the amount of oceanfront feet by $26,827 (if older home) to $35,232(if newer home in excellent condition with a deep lot and in quiet location). From 1992 to present the average linear foot calculates to 72.66 feet of ocean frontage per sale. The yearly sale prices vary more than anticipated because of the type of oceanfront properties that have sold. In 2006, many oceanfront homes that sold were new construction, bringing higher than expected values. In 2007, the majority of oceanfront properties that sold were teardowns, creating a decline in values. In 2008, the sale of oceanfront property in North Beach, Loveladies, and on oversized lots in Barnegat Light increased the average values for two reasons. The majority of homes were newly constructed and north end of the Island locations also hold the highest land values on LBI. These sales created a higher than average sale price for oceanfront properties than expected in 2008. In 2009, there were not any north end properties that sold. In 2010, the number of north end properties that sold were below average, bringing average prices down. In 2011, new construction in North Beach included an entire tract which brought our average value up a bit. In 2012, many tear downs sold along with just two new construction and one 5 years of age, bringing values down from 2011. The first half of 2013 we were back up a bit, which is great considering mostly teardowns have sold, and proves values are once again appreciating. The second half shows an unrealistic rate, where most properties sold were on the North end in great condition, setting a record all time high average sale price!
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LB I O C E A NFR O NT N E WS L E T T E R
W IN T E R 2 0 1 4
2013 OCEANFRONT SALES from South to North TOWN
AD-
SOUTH
DATE SOLD
LIST
SELL
SELL/ FEET AGE ASSESS ASSESS
PRICE$ PRICE $ LIST $ WTR
ASSESS
SELL$/ #BEDR. #BATH
BUILD
LAND
TOTAL
AS-
HOLGATE
5307 S.
8/21/13 1,399,900 1,337,500 96%
40
9
347,700
924,000
1,271,700
1.05
5.00
3.50
HOLGATE
4305 S.
9/20/13 1,395,000 1,250,000 90%
60
9
249,900 1,270,500
1,520,400
0.82
5.00
3.00
HAVEN BEACH
125 E. North Carolina
10/4/13 2,200,000 1,775,000 81%
70
31
170,900 1,386,000
1,556,900
1.14
4.00
3.50
118 E.
11/5/13 2,250,000 2,100,000 93%
75
23
469,697 1,620,426
2,090,123
1.00
6.00
3.50
1,811,225 1,615,625 89%
61
18
309,549 1,300,232
1,609,781
1.00
5.00
3.38
BRIGHTON 2013 AVG.
4 SOLD SOUTH
CENTER BRANT BEACH
6409 Ocean
10/3/13 2,499,000 2,300,000 92%
62
0
646,000 1,293,600
1,939,600
1.19
4.00
4.50
BRANT BEACH
5305 Ocean
7/12/13 1,999,000 1,700,000 85%
75
25
718,200 1,443,800
2,162,000
0.79
3.00
3.50
SURF CITY
307 N. Ocean
3/29/13 1,495,500 1,480,000 99%
50
28
507,600 1,000,000
1,507,600
0.98
4.00
2.00
3 SOLD CENTER 1,997,833 1,826,667 91%
62
18
623,933 1,245,800
1,869,733
0.98
3.67
3.33
2013 AVG. NORTH
NORTH BEACH 1003-D
6/17/13 2,650,000 2,250,000 85%
100
22
524,400 2,468,400
2,992,800
0.75
4.00
6.50
NORTH BEACH 1049-C
8/5/13
4,495,000 3,800,000 85%
100
7
1,173,300 2,462,500
3,635,800
1.05
5.00
7.00
NORTH BEACH 1095-B
8/30/13 7,699,000 7,350,000 95%
100
0
2,225,000 3,078,100
5,303,100
1.39
9.00
11.50
HARVEY CEDARS 5413C
4/12/13 2,395,000 1,900,000 79%
60
25
619,200 1,354,100
1,973,300
0.96
5.00
4.50
HARVEY CEDARS 5415-C
5/10/13 2,099,000 1,969,500 94%
62
24
775,100 1,354,100
2,129,200
0.92
4.00
4.00
9/5/13
LOVELADIES
87-E LBB
5,495,000 5,100,000 93%
125
7
1,076,100 3,012,500
4,088,600
1.25
5.00
5.00
LOVELADIES
89-D LBB 11/27/13 4,820,000 4,400,000 91%
125
18
965,208 3,381,033
4,346,241
1.01
6.00
5.50
LOVELADIES
91D LBB
1/25/13 3,999,000 3,900,000 98%
125
22
844,000 3,012,500
3,856,500
1.01
5.00
4.50
LOVELADIES
133-E 1911 Seaview Ave.
11/12/13 6,900,000 6,050,000 88%
125
13
1,717,733 3,381,033
5,098,766
1.19
8.00
8.50
7/12/13 1,995,000 1,650,000 83%
75
54
139,600 1,672,500
1,812,100
0.91
3.00
1.00
BARNEGAT LIGHT 2013 AVG.
2013 AVG LBI
10 SOLD NORTH
4,254,700 3,836,950 90%
100
19
1,005,964 2,517,677
3,523,641
1.09
5.40
5.80
17SOLD 2013
3,281,494 2,959,529 90%
84
19
774,685 2,006,770
2,781,455
1.06
5.00
4.79
For properties currently available for sale and for those under contract, please feel free to call me or visit www.lbisales.com. I would be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing computer detailed reports and/or generate automatic updates with your personal criteria! Get the LBI Oceanfront Newsletter before it hits the press! Please e-mail Willy Kahl at willykahl@gmail.com and tell him you prefer these newsletters via e-mail today! Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Jersey Shore Regional Multiple Listing Service Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Egon Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This newsletter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Egon Willy Kahl. ©
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LB I O C E A NFR O NT N E WS L E T T E R
WINTER 2014
Chart of Average Oceanfront Sales 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0
OCEANFRONT AVERAGE SALE PRICE
SOUTH
CENTER
NORTH
AVG. Price
Price/avg.ft.
Beach Replenishment Project Postponed Until Early Fall Governor Christie and LBI mayors have been pushing for the beach replenish plan for several years. The holdup was a few Oceanfront owners refusing to sign off on easements which would allow the Army Corps of Engineers dune access. The Christie administration has since implemented a new plan under eminent domain allowing use of the easements. Although the Corps previously estimated that the sand and dune replenishment would begin in late spring or early summer the anticipated start date has been pushed back to the fall of 2014. It appears LBI will have at least two beaches starting at the same time, and if equipment is available, as many as four beaches will all be filled simultaneously. The real estate division of the Corps is supposed to determine a scope of work for appraisals related to obtaining remaining easements via eminent domain. If the project goes out to bid in June it is anticipated that work will begin Sept. 1 or later. Corps public affairs officer Steve Rochette confirmed, “It’s not likely the project would begin before the end of the summer. There are so many variables that it can be difficult to predict start dates in advance,” Corps spokesman Ed Voigt stated a Superstorm Sandy-related supplemental bill funded work that was completed last year to restore the beaches in Surf City, Harvey Cedars and a mile of Brant Beach, all which had undergone replenishment before the storm. As for the rest of the Island – “that’s next.” That work will be 100 percent federally funded although future periodic re-nourishment will be cost shared with the state and the municipality.
Oceanfront Sales Volume is Low but Better than 1st half of 2013 There have only been 17 Oceanfront single family home sales for 2013. This is a bit higher than the record low of 14 for 2009, and if it were not for 2009, it would be a new low since I started collecting data in 1992. In addition, the number of oceanfront properties (supply) for sale has increased from 44 the first half of 2013 to 47 oceanfront properties currently listed for sale. The good news is there are currently 4 oceanfront properties under contract in 2014 and it appears we are back on track for the demand (sales) of LBI oceanfront properties. I calculate our supply to demand curve by dividing the number of oceanfront properties sold in the latest half year period by the amount of oceanfront properties currently for sale. These are two key factors to prices stabilizing with values on the rise in the near future. In 2013 our supply vs. demand ratio is .185 which is much less than the 2012 ratio of .30. The real estate market is much better now than it was in '94 when the ratio dropped to .06. I feel this ratio will gain quickly as time goes on and sales volume rises once again. Currently, there are 47 oceanfront properties available for sale, more than the 38 available last year, but less than the 55 available at this time 2011. There were 59 homes listed for sale during the first half of 2010. Our record low of 15 oceanfront homes on the market was in 2002. Our high was 101 oceanfront homes available in 1993. There are approximately 1100 oceanfront homes on LBI.
FIRST CLASS PRESORT MAIL U.S. POSTAGE PAID TOMS RIVER, NJ PERMIT NO. 77
Willy Kahl’s Oceanfront Newsletter Egon Willy Kahl / Broker of Record LBI Realty Group 1919 Long Beach Blvd. Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell (609) 709-1020 EMAIL: WILLYKAHL@GMAIL.COM Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901
WWW.LBISALES.COM
Dependable Oceanfront Data Enclosed! For properties currently available for sale and those under contract, please feel free to call or email me. I’ll be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports!
Dependable Oceanfront Data Enclosed! FEATURED PROPERTY-NORTH BEACH OCEANFRONT First time this North Beach Oceanfront is Offered for Sale Magnificent Ocean Views! 80 feet on the Ocean plus a 20 foot easement creates the feeling of 100 feet on the Oceanfront! Well maintained 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath ranch, open living, kitchen and dining area with fireplace overlooking the beautiful Atlantic Ocean. CAFRA permits in place for expansion or new construction. Deeded bay access and dock with slip included as part of North Beach Estates for a small monthly fee. Current CAFRA footprint is approximately 35' x 40.5' for new house. This is a larger footprint than existing house and also includes expanded east and new southern decks. Enjoy this existing oceanfront home this summer while planning construction of your new dream home! $2,149,000.