Willy Kahl LBI Realtor/Oceanfront & Bayfront Specialist
RE/MAX of Long Beach Island 3 3 0 W e st 8t h S t r e et S h i p B o t t o m , N J 0 80 0 8
(609) 709-1020 — Cell Phone E m a i l : w i l l yk 7 7 7 @ h o t m a i l . c o m
w w w . w i l l yk a h l . c o m
LBI OCEANFRONT AND BAYFRONT NEWSLETTER MID 2009 WATERFRONT STUDY
SUMMER 2009 Features:
• •
Average Sale Prices on Oceanfront and Bayfront Properties LBI Single Family Oceanfront and Bayfront Sales Spreadsheets and Price
• • •
per Foot Charts Supply vs. Demand Curve 21 Year Data Analysis Featured properties
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Willy Kahl is and has been one of LBI’s top producing Real Estate agents since 1992. Whether your home is year round or seasonal, LBI is certainly a safe and friendly seashore community for all to enjoy! Willy Kahl and Family
Average Sale Price per Linear Foot of Ocean Frontage Sets a Record High in 2009! For property on the ocean, the calculated value per linear foot of frontage shows that values have increased on oceanfront properties from 2004 to present based on sales. The average sale prices each year are $2,109,178 in 2004, $2,428,210 in 2005, $2,518,418 in 2006, $2,149.017 in 2007, $2,472,863 for 2008, and $2,582,281 for the first half of 2009. It might appear that oceanfront home prices have slowly increased over the last five years. However, these values are not based on sales of comparable oceanfront properties. For instance, in 2006 many oceanfront homes that sold were new construction. In 2007, the majority of oceanfront properties that sold were teardowns, creating a decline in values. The value of the improvement on an oceanfront property will be reflected in the sale price. New construction holds a high value as opposed to a tear down which holds zero value. In 2008, the sale of oceanfront property in North Beach, Loveladies, and on oversized lots in Barnegat Light increased the average values for two reasons. The majority of homes were newly constructed and the north end location also holds the highest land values on LBI. These sales created a higher than average sale price for oceanfronts than expected in 2008. In this first half of 2009, Surf City is breaking the curve for oceanfronts in the center of the Island (no single family sales in Ship Bottom and Brant Beach), and only one sale in the exclusive Dunes section of the Township for the South end. All other sales were on the North end of LBI. All seven sales this half were in the location that brings in the highest values. With only seven oceanfront sales thus far in 2009, it is hard to see what values are really doing. When including duplexes these values drop tremendously. In Brant Beach, a duplex with 75 feet on the oceanfront sold for $1,200,000. The single-family oceanfront value for the average 75’ on the ocean on LBI would calculate out to be $2,678,714 for this half (an average of $35,714 per linear oceanfront foot)! This is more than double for a single-family average! Since I began this study in 1992, duplexes have always brought in lower figures, and for that reason, I have always excluded oceanfront duplexes in my analysis. Duplexes seem to be slowly disappearing and being replaced with new single family homes. In general, the values in most LBI towns are down around 15% for ocean front property since the 2004-2005 peak. Surf City, however, continues to demand the best prices and this town is helping raise oceanfront statistics for the entire island. The current ocean frontage average is 72.30 feet including all oceanfront sales from 1992. This half was a low of 64 feet on average. Our graph shows us these new values and how they have stabilized over the last five years. It also shows us the values without calculating the per foot value.
Average Sale Prices for Bay Front Properties Decrease For property on the bay, values have increased from an average sale price of $1,575,763 in 2004 to a record high of $2,413,619 in 2005, then slid back down to $1,718,470 in 2006 and back up slightly to $1,986,017 in 2007, down to $1,971,347 for 2008 and slid downward again this half to $1,722,000. This average decline appears to be fairly accurate when averaging the high of 2004 and 2005 against this years average. Prices are down about 29% from the peak of 2005, but down 14% when averaging the 2004 and 2005 together. I feel values are down about 20% for bay front properties since the climax a few years ago.
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LB I O C E A N F R O N T A N D B A Y F R O N T N E WS LE T T E R
SUMMER 2009
LBI MID 2009 OCEANFRONT SALES from South to North Actual Values—Not Per Foot Data TOWN
ADDRESS
SOUTH THE DUNES MID 2009 AVG
12405 Ocean
DATE
LIST
SELL
SOLD
PRICE
SELL/ FEET AGE ASSESS ASSESS ASSESS
PRICE $ LIST $ WTR
BUILD
LAND
TOTAL
SELL$/
#BEDR #BATH
ASSESS$
6/3/09
1,795,000 1,700,000 95%
60
28
114,200 1,270,500 1,384,700
1.23
4.00
2.00
1 SOLD IN SOUTH
1,795,000 1,700,000 95%
60
28
114,200 1,270,500 1,384,700
1.23
4.00
2.00
CENTER SURF CITY
5 N 10th St.
1/30/09 2,495,000 2,200,000 88%
50
12
403,200 1,000,000 1,403,200
1.57
4.00
3.50
SURF CITY
1109 N Ocean 2/19/09 3,695,000 3,200,000 87% Terrace 1605 Ocean 6/12/09 2,190,000 1,800,000 82% Ave. 3 SOLD IN CENTER 2,793,333 2,400,000 86%
70
1
945,800 1,600,000 2,545,800
1.26
5.00
7.00
40
1
403,820 1,035,000 1,438,820
1.25
4.00
3.50
53
5
584,273 1,211,667 1,795,940
1.34
4.33
4.67
6/12/09 2,190,000 1,950,000 89%
64
39
432,100 1,793,000 2,225,100
0.88
4.00
3.00
8 E Arts Lane
3/16/09 3,980,000 3,550,000 89%
100
24
446,600 2,462,500 2,909,100
1.22
6.00
4.00
BARNEGAT LIGHT 17 E 24th St.
6/22/09 1,899,000 1,600,000 84%
63
42
177,200 2,131,500 2,308,700
0.69
5.00
2.00
2,689,667 2,366,667 88%
76
35
351,967 2,129,000 2,480,967
0.95
5.00
3.00
7 SOLD IN MID 2009 2,606,286 2,285,714 88%
64
21
417,560 1,613,214 2,030,774
1.13
4.57
3.57
SURF CITY MID 2009 AVG NORTH
HARVEY CEDARS 12 E 68th St. LOVELADIES
MID 2009 AVG
MID 2009 AVG LBI
3 SOLD IN NORTH
LBI MID 2009 BAYFRONT SALES from South to North Actual Values—Not Per Foot Data TOWN
ADDRESS
SOUTH BEACH HAVEN PARK
DATE SOLD
SELL
SELL FEET AG ASSESS ASSESS ASSESS SELL$/ #BEDR. #BATH $/ E
PRICE $ PRICE $ LIST$ WTR
BUILD $
LAND $ TOTAL$ ASSESS$
6/1/09 3,595,000 3,150,000 88%
189
9
2,283,600 1,380,700 3,664,300
0.86
5.00
6.00
3,595,000 3,150,000 88%
189
9
2,283,600 1,380,700 3,664,300
0.86
5.00
6.00
800,000 100%
65
23
296,000 637,000
933,000
0.86
4.00
2.50
440 N. 3rd St. 5/15/09 1,499,000 1,310,000 87%
84
26
348,400 913,400 1,261,800
1.04
4.00
3.00
2 SOLD IN CENTER 1,149,500 1,055,000 92%
75
25
322,200 775,200 1,097,400
0.96
4.00
2.75
HARVEY CEDARS 8402 Bay Ter- 4/30/09 1,699,000 1,450,000 85% race
150
59
264,900 1,821,500 2,086,400
0.69
4.00
3.00
HIGH BAR HARBOR 66 Adrian Rd. 5/14/09 2,195,000 1,900,000 87%
210
14
268,700 966,000 1,234,700
1.54
5.00
4.00
1,947,000 1,675,000 86%
180
37
266,800 1,393,750 1,660,550
1.01
4.50
3.50
5 SOLD IN MID 2009 1,957,600 1,722,000 88%
140
26
692,320 1,143,720 1,836,040
0.94
4.40
3.70
MID 2009 AVG
30 Hideaway Drive
LIST
1 SOLD IN SOUTH
CENTER SHIP BOTTOM SURF CITY MID 2009 AVG
11 Robert Dr.
1/23/09
799,999
NORTH
MID 2009 AVG
MID 2009 AVG LBI
2SOLD IN NORTH
Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Greater N.J. Shore Listing Service Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This newsletter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Willy Kahl. ©
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LB I O C E A N F R O N T A N D B A Y F R O N T N E WS LE T T E R
SUMMER 2009
LBI MID 2009 OCEANFRONT and BAYFRONT AVERAGE SALE PRICE per FOOT OCEANFRONT AVERAGE SALE PRICE PER FOOT 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
SOUTH
CENTER
NORTH
AVG. Price
MID 2009
Price/avg.ft.
BAYFRONT AVERAGE SALE PRICE PER FOOT
4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2004
2005 SOUTH
2006 CENTER
2007 NORTH
AVG. Price
2008
MID 2009
Price/avg.ft.
SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE DROPS The supply to demand ratios of .12 on oceanfront homes and .10 on bayfront homes is a large decrease from last year. This is comparable to the ratios back in 1992 thru 1994, when prices were fairly stable but took a long time before greatly appreciating. This is a substantial decrease in general and has proven sales have slowed down these last few years. Currently, there are 60 oceanfront and 49 bayfront single-family homes available for sale on LBI. Our record low of 15 oceanfronts on the market was back in 2002. Our high was 101 oceanfront homes available in 1993. The number of buyers has decreased from a high of 50 in 1999 to 23 for 2007 and 21 for 2008 and just 7 for the first half of 2009. With this small amount of buyers and the number of waterfront properties available for sale consistently increasing, it appears that prices may continue to decrease. The most desirable and competitively priced waterfront homes will sell. Those that are overpriced will not.
21 YEARS OF WATERFRONT DATA ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION In 1987, the sales market had peaked on LBI. Approximately six years later, I was selling oceanfront homes for approximately 25% less than the 1987 climatic sales market. Properties began appreciating slowly from 1992 to 1998. In that 7 year time period, the average oceanfront home increased a total of 24%. Over the next seven years (1999-2005), they increased another 312%! We are now experiencing four years of a depreciating LBI home sales market. Currently, I feel we are at a 15-20% depreciation from the 2004-2005 peak for waterfront properties and 25-30% for bayside homes. Most Buyers are more likely to purchase a property if the Seller is asking a fair price reflective of today’s market value. Most buyers are excited that they are able to afford a vacation home on LBI! With attractive mortgage interest rates and reduced asking prices, along with a variety of properties to choose from, it’s a great time to buy or sell on LBI!
Willy Kahl’s Waterfront Newsletter
FIRST CLASS PRESORTED U.S. POSTAGE PAID TOMS RIVER, NJ PERMIT NO. 77
Willy Kahl/Broker Associate LBI Top Producing Realtor Specializing in Oceanfront & Bayfront Homes RE/MAX of Long Beach Island 330 West 8th St. Ship Bottom, NJ 08008
Cell Phone (609) 709-1020 Website: www.willykahl.com Email: willyk777@hotmail.com “Willy Kahl-Your Key to LBI Real Estate Sales”
DEPENDABLE LBI WATERFRONT DATA ENCLOSED! 17 years of LBI waterfront home values analyzed inside!
NORTH BEACH OCEANFRONT Panoramic Oceanfront Views, Highly elevated, Private lane with only one other home on tract, well kept home with endless possibilities. Featuring a sun tract location (southern next door oceanfront home sits far west), this home has never been rented and built and enjoyed by the current owners. Exceptional dune structure and beach, yet astonishing views due to great elevation! $2,690,000.
North Beach Oceanfront Tract Priced to Sell at $3,499,000. The largest Oceanfront CAFRA approved footprint on LBI is now available to purchase! One of a kind oceanfront tract presently offers a single-family house with private walkway to the beach. Endless possibilities include new construction of a 13,000+ sq. ft. 3 level oceanfront home plus a guesthouse, tennis court, pool, putting green or other possibilities! CAFRA approval allows for construction of a 4,900 sq. ft. footprint home plus exceptionally oversized decks on the oceanfront lot. Call Willy Kahl for more information, survey, & permits!
200 FEET ON LONG BEACH BLVD. with 3 LOTS TOTAL—$1,200,000. Located in the Heart of Ship Bottom, the well k nown “Stutz Candy Company” building encompasses three lots - two of which are on the boulevard and a third lot on 15th Street. The existing building features the storefront on the first floor as well as a second floor apartment. The candy business is not included. This location is zoned both commercial and residential, leaving multiple opportunities for a prospective Buyer! Call Willy Kahl for more information.
For all the latest Multiple Listing Service has to offer on LBI properties visit www.willykahl.com, an outstanding source for my buyers and sellers. All my properties are listed here and are also elaborately featured on www. Realtor.com. With over 100 search engines (such as google) worldwide it’s no wonder Nobody in the world sells more Real Estate then RE/MAX*!