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HEAD OF THE HOUSE

BY VICKY JANOWSKI

NNE GARDNER

BECAME CEO OF WILMINGTONBASED CAPE FEAR REALTORS IN JULY, head of an organization that includes more than 2,800 Realtors in Southeastern North Carolina and is on track to hit 3,000 by May. Gardner, who came to Wilmington after serving nine years as CEO of the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors in Virginia, talks about the area’s current housing market and what might be on the horizon. A

HOME SALES REALLY JUMPED UP IN JANUARY – 37% MORE THAN A YEAR EARLIER FOR THE THREE-COUNTY REGION AND THE STEEPEST INCREASE FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY SINCE 2006. WHAT’S FUELING ALL THIS ACTIVITY?

“There are a few external factors contributing to the robust activity at the start of 2020, specifically low unemployment and declining mortgage rates. Combining 3.6% unemployment, which is a 0.5% drop from this time in 2018, and mortgage rates below 3.5%, there has been significant demand in housing across all segments and counties in our region.

January’s performance shared markers typically found in March and April, however, with our area’s mild weather and a surge in end-of-year buyer traffic and pending sales, it resulted in a record month.”

NATIONALLY, HOUSING INVENTORY HAS DROPPED, AND THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CASE LOCALLY. HOW MUCH OF A CONCERN IS THAT FOR THE AREA?

ANNE GARDNER C E O CAPE FEAR REALTORS

“As the fastest-growing region in the state, housing demand extended beyond the tri-county area in earnest the past year, and buyers are absorbing available inventory in the surrounding areas. Inventory drops each month, and existing homes remain on the market an average of just 18 days in New Hanover County. With regard to new inventory creation by developers and builders, the national inventory shortage is driven by a shortage of ‘land, lumber or labor,’ or any combination of the three. Nationally, labor is the biggest issue, and while the local labor market remains tight, the scarcity of land is impacting both prices and home choice most acutely in the city of Wilmington and New Hanover County …

The region’s anticipated population boom in the next two decades is expected to double our population.

The challenges in meeting future demands are already upon us, and we are active in partnerships working to prepare the region for this growth.” WHAT OTHER TRENDS ARE YOU KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR POTENTIAL HOUSING MARKET IMPACTS?

“I have frequent conversations in the community where I am asked about the impact of retirees and other demographics on our housing market. Interestingly, it is less the influx of new retirees that will impact the housing supply for the region but instead the consumers who are choosing to age in place.

The impact of this behavior is the housing stock, which would normally come onto the market as individuals are expected to downsize and leave their homes of 20 or more years are not coming into the existing home sales inventory …

Another trend that will impact our communities is the delayed impact of millennials purchasing homes later than prior generations, due to flat wage growth and the impact of student loan debts. There is a concern that as purchasing power is impacted for this group, they remain renters longer than previous generations, or they will purchase with friends and family to combine resources …

The most immediate impact to our region will be the rising costs of insurance and risk to property from natural disasters. While we are encouraged by recent changes to the National Flood Insurance Program’s (NFIP) risk assessment model, which determines risk factors on a parcel by parcel basis instead of zones, insufficient coverage and uneven claim payouts are putting a strain on the flood insurance market.

The N.C. Rate Bureau (NCRB) has proposed a new private flood insurance plan for North Carolina that we are watching very closely.”