3 21 things to watch: LATIN AMERICA
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Shutterstock.com/ Myriam B
COVID-19 and Regional Economies Latin America’s total COVID-19 cases exceeded 13.5 million by early December, making it a global hotspot, and the highest per capita death rate in the world. And the economic fallout is worse than in any other region. The IMF expects negative 8.1 percent GDP growth in 2020, and double-digit contractions in Argentina, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. Fully 37 percent of the region’s population will experience poverty. And the worst may be yet to come, as a J.P. Morgan assessment places regional growth at only 3.6 percent in 2021. This sluggish recovery will depress tax revenue as leaders struggle to sustain massive social stimulus. Debt is a concern: regional governments have borrowed $48 billion in 2020, 13 percent higher than in 2019. Yet there are glimmers of hope. Interest rates are low. Lenders have stepped up. China’s recovery buoyed prices for the region’s commodities. And the U.S. hosts the Summit of the Americas in 2021, holding the promise of robust reengagement.
Featured Experts:
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/lap
Cynthia Arnson, Director, Latin American Program
lap@wilsoncenter.org
Benjamin Gedan, Deputy Director, Latin American Program and Director, Argentina Project Michael Penfold, Fellow, Latin American Program
facebook.com/LatinAmericanProgram @LATAMProg 202.691.4075
Ricardo Zúñiga, Fellow, Latin American Program years
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