On the Horizon: What to Watch in 2021

Page 30

3 21 things to watch:

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

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Russia and the Biden Administration President-elect Biden has a nearly half-century long track record on U.S. foreign policy, including on Russia and Ukraine, and his past statements underscore an approach that will have broad bipartisan support. He will seek strategic stability with Russia, provide significant aid to Ukraine, Georgia, the Baltic States and other neighbors in ongoing conflicts with Russia, and voice rhetorical support (at least) for the beleaguered Russian opposition. Biden is duly cautious about provoking direct conflict with Moscow that could spur unintended escalation. An evenly-divided Senate will aim to stymie the White House’s policy agenda wherever possible, but January may bring reduced Congressional pressure—triggered by largely bipartisan mistrust of President Trump on Russia—to impose new sanctions. Yet legislators will not rescind existing sanctions legislation. The State and Treasury Departments will update and maintain sanctions designations, taking relatively narrow and targeted new actions. The result will be continuing pressure on Moscow.

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Featured Experts:

www.wilsoncenter.org/kennan

William Pomeranz, Deputy Director, Kennan Institute

facebook.com/Kennan.Institute

Mykhailo Minakov, Senior Advisor, Editor-in-Chief, Focus Ukraine blog, Kennan Institute

202.691.4100

Max Trudolyubov, Senior Fellow and Editor of the Russia File

kennan@wilsoncenter.org @kennaninstitute

years

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