d by te ed es da ors vic Up end er n lic S d io r rs ub a ve e P Bo th
Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire 2010 – 2011 a single version of the truth
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2010
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Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire Wiltshire Council
Wiltshire College
Wiltshire Police Authority
Ministry of Defence
Wiltshire Police
Job Centre Plus
NHS Wiltshire
South West Regional Development Agency
Wiltshire Probation Natural England
Wiltshire & Swindon Fire & Rescue Government Office for the South West
Homes and Communities Agency
Following the consultation period, this is the final Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire 2010-2011 and replaces the consultation version issued at the Wiltshire Assembly on the 15th October 2010.
Electronic copies are also available on the Wiltshire and Swindon Intelligence Network – http://www.intelligencenetwork.org.uk/joint-strategic-assessment/ 2
Contents Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Contents Acknowledgements
4
Foreword
7
Introduction
8
Next steps
9
Executive summary
10
Demographics and Census
13
Wiltshire Core Strategy: spatial planning
19
Health and wellbeing
27
Economy
33
Children and young people
39
Community safety
45
Housing
51
Transport
57
Environment
65
Resilient communities
73
Equality and diversity
79
Community areas
82
Glossary and abbreviations
84
Appendices
86
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Acknowledgements
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Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Acknowledgements Report prepared by: Maggie Rae
Corporate Director of Public Health and Wellbeing in Wiltshire
Tom Frost
Public Health Scientist, NHS Wiltshire
Jackie Guinness
Senior Researcher, Public Health and Wellbeing, Wiltshire Council
Philip Morgan
Research Manager, Public Health and Wellbeing, Wiltshire Council
Aimee Stimpson
Business Improvement Manager, NHS Wiltshire
With the assistance of: Dr Sally Hunter
Senior Researcher, Public Health and Wellbeing, Wiltshire Council
Diana Pointon
Senior Researcher, Public Health and Wellbeing, Wiltshire Council
Matthew Sims
Researcher, Public Health and Wellbeing, Wiltshire Council
With grateful thanks to chapter contributors: Demographics and Census Doug Anderson
Researcher, Public Health and Wellbeing, Wiltshire Council
Wiltshire Core Strategy: spatial planning Georgina Clampitt-Dix
Head of Spatial Planning, Department of Neighbourhood and Planning Wiltshire Council
Anna Lee
Assistant Spatial Plans Officer, Department of Neighbourhood and Planning, Wiltshire Council
James Millard
Senior Spatial Planning Officer, Department of Neighbourhood and Planning, Wiltshire Council
Chris Minors
Planning Officer, Department of Neighbourhood and Planning, Wiltshire Council
Neil Tiley
Senior Planning Officer, Department of Neighbourhood and Planning, Wiltshire Council
David Milton
Team Leader, Forward Planning and Conservation, Department of Neighbourhood and Planning, Wiltshire Council
Health and wellbeing Nicola Cretney
Deputy Director of Public Health, NHS Wiltshire
Sarah Fussell
Wiltshire Health Improvement Partnership Manager, Wiltshire Council
Economy Debby Skellern
Economic Development Manager, Department of Neighbourhood and Planning, Wiltshire Council
Children and young people Lynda Cox
Head of Performance Management, Department of Children and Education, Wiltshire Council
Jim Smith
Department of Children and Education, Wiltshire Council
Community safety Mark Burchell
Criminal Intelligence Analyst, Divisional Intelligence Unit, Wiltshire Police
Laura Colley
Researcher, Public Health and Wellbeing, Wiltshire Council
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Acknowledgements Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Community safety contd. Tim Mason
Community Safety Partnership
Housing Nicole Smith
Head of Housing Strategy and Support, Department of Neighbourhood and Planning, Wiltshire Council
Transport Allan Creedy
Head of Sustainable Transport, Department of Neighbourhood and Planning, Wiltshire Council
Environment Ariane Crampton
Head of Climate Change, Department of Neighbourhood and Planning, Wiltshire Council
Dr Gary Mantle
Director, Wiltshire Wildlife Trust
Jonathan Mantle
Wiltshire Wildlife Trust
Purgle Linham
Wiltshire & Swindon Biological Records Centre
Vincent Albano
Climate Change Officer – Projects, Department of Neighbourhood and Planning, Wiltshire Council
Catherine Dixon
Climate Change Officer – Projects, Department of Neighbourhood and Planning, Wiltshire Council
Resilient communities Emma Cooper
Resilient Communities Partnership Manager, Department of Community Services, Wiltshire Council
Equality and diversity Mayur Bhatt
Head of Equalities, Department of Community Services, Wiltshire Council
Sharon Brookes
Equality and Diversity Policy Officer, Department of Community Services, Wiltshire Council
On behalf of: Wiltshire Strategic Economic Partnership, Steve Stone, Chairman Wiltshire Health Improvement Partnership, Councillor Keith Humphries, Chairman Children and Young People’s Trust Board, Jim Smith, Chairman Community Safety Partnership, Maggie Rae, Chairman Resilient Communities Partnership, Rosemary MacDonald, Chairman Wiltshire Environmental Alliance, Gary Mantle, Chairman Wiltshire Housing Partnership, Ann Cornelius, Chairman Transport Partnership, Dick Tonge, Chairman
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Acknowledgements
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Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
We are grateful to the following members of the Wiltshire Public Services Board (WPSB) who have committed their support to the development of the first Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire.
Organisation
Member
Wiltshire Council
Jane Scott, Leader and Chairman of WPSB
John Thomson, Cabinet Member for Communities, Wiltshire Council
Andrew Kerr, Chief Executive, Wiltshire Council
Wiltshire Police Authority Christopher Hoare, Chairman and Vice Chairman of WPSB Wiltshire Police
Brian Moore, Chief Constable
NHS Wiltshire
Tony Barron, Chairman
Jeff James, Chief Executive, NHS Wiltshire
Wiltshire Probation
Paul Aviss, Chairman
Diana Fulbrook, Chief Executive, Wiltshire Probation Trust
Wiltshire and Swindon Brigadier Robert Hall, Chairman Fire Authority Andy Goves, Chief Fire Officer Ministry of Defence
Brigadier Stephen Hodder, Commander 43 (Wessex) Brigade
Other signatures of support may follow in the final report following the consultation period.
6
Foreword Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Foreword I am delighted to present the Joint Strategic Assessment (JSA) for Wiltshire 2010-2011 which sets out the strategic issues and priorities for Wiltshire for the next three years. This is the first Joint Strategic Assessment and is a development from the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment which became a statutory requirement in the Local Government and Public Involvement in Health Act, 2007. The JSNA continues as the needs assessment for the health and wellbeing partnership and feeds into the over-arching JSA for Wiltshire. The JSA for 2010 represents a milestone in our journey to a full understanding of the needs of the population of Wiltshire. The JSA will be used to inform strategy and plans, including the Wiltshire Community Plan and other corporate plans, and will be launched for consultation at the Wiltshire Assembly in October 2010. This year’s work has been made possible through further consolidating and expanding a strong partnership of collaborative working between local partners, including NHS Wiltshire, Wiltshire Council, Wiltshire Police, local voluntary organisations and a range of other stakeholders in our community. During the past year the partnership’s appetite for joint analysis and information sharing has gathered momentum and enabled the evolvement of the Joint Strategic Assessment. My role at both Wiltshire Council and NHS Wiltshire includes responsibility for knowledge management; therefore I have been delighted to lead this innovative process for Wiltshire. I would like to thank everyone who has been involved in the development of the first Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire. I am confident that this work will enable us to set the right priorities for providing and commissioning services in Wiltshire.
Maggie Rae Corporate Director of Public Health and Wellbeing in Wiltshire
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Introduction
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Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Introduction
The JSA is supported by Wiltshire’s TDPs; it has contributions from each of the partnerships, with each partnership having identified the key issues through their own detailed needs assessments, ensuring local priorities are based on need. The JSA brings together issues in Wiltshire from across the public sector services. It also contains key information such as population size and geography, building a single, accurate reflection – a single version of the truth.
The ambition for the JSA 2010-2011 is that it will provide the council and its eight Thematic Delivery Partnerships (TDPs) with a robust analysis of the issues facing Wiltshire. There are currently eight TDPs in Wiltshire and they are the powerhouses of Wiltshire’s family of partnerships; responsible for delivering action and developing strategy. The JSA’s key aims are to inform shared priorities and make sure of local ownership and commitment for action.
Figure 1: Relationship of Wiltshire’s strategic assessments
Joint Strategic Assessment
Equality and diversity
Demographics
Health and wellbeing
Economy
Children and young people
Community safety
8
Housing
Transport
Environment
Resilient communities
Next steps Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
• meeting internal and external requirements (public – local information)
The JSA will inform the commissioning framework for the Wiltshire Assembly and provide an opportunity to look ahead three to five years so that:
• informing community area plans/bids and commissioning decisions
• inequalities within our population are reduced
• awareness of local issues, based on evidence
• services are shaped by local communities
• one-stop shop, examining all factors which impact on communities
• social inclusion is increased
• addressing information sharing issues
• the above outcomes are maximised at minimum cost.
• allowing greater analysis of information.
The JSA will also act as a further information document for supporting more detailed partnership needs assessments. The refreshed Wiltshire Intelligence Network will be an integral resource to support sharing partnership needs assessments and information. The resource is user-friendly and will be available to the public. The new resource will also contain complete, refreshed, accredited datasets to support partnership needs assessments.
Next steps The next phase of development will involve work with local stakeholders and development of detailed information for community-based activities, for example through: • consultation with stakeholders to determine key recommendations for action based on the data, knowledge and wisdom contained within the JSA • development of 20 community area profiles to inform local community area partnerships and boards, integrating the community profiles and health profiles published in 2009 and enabling engagement with local areas
It is hoped that this document will continue to deliver many of the improvements which the JSNA offered, some of which are outlined below: • acceptance of the JSNA as the over-arching needs assessment for Wiltshire
• thematic partnerships refreshing their partnership needs assessments
• less duplication in terms of data collection and storage, through improved working arrangements
• marketing the JSA • informing key decision making and plans in Wiltshire, including the new Wiltshire Community Plan 2011-2026.
• improved partnership working to understand local issues
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Executive summary
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Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Executive summary
• Wiltshire has experienced a fall in levels of homelessness over the last five years and it is now nearly 12 months since any homeless household was placed in bed and breakfast temporary accommodation
The JSA for Wiltshire is unique among local assessments, both in its range of contributors and in its diverse aims. This report is not intended to present a comprehensive picture of the supply, demand and need for services in Wiltshire. Instead it is a summary of the evidence base that has already been collected and analysed in broad themes. An understandable result of this process has been to concentrate on the issues that need addressing and improving in the county, and indeed that was one of the aims. However the facts that show Wiltshire is a relatively healthy and wealthy area should not be overlooked. Wiltshire can be described as successful with many of the key social and economic indicators performing better than regional and national averages.
• Wiltshire has high car ownership levels compared to England and this facilitates access to employment and services • Wiltshire is well connected to the surrounding areas by road and rail • Wiltshire has 29,000 hectares of sites of special scientific interest; 1,550 county wildlife sites; high grade farmland and much of the county is classified as an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB) • Wiltshire has a higher than national percentage of third sector organisations stating the influence from public sector bodies was positive. Returning to the challenges that face public sector service providers in Wiltshire, it is evident from the issues identified in this document that few, if any, can be tackled by one agency, or even one thematic partnership alone. The positives listed above need to be sustained through a period of economic and environmental uncertainty. It is also clear that the challenges of a changing population; inequalities in outcomes and local delivery influence a large number of more specific issues. The JSA is integral in planning to meet these challenges by providing key statistics about Wiltshire and its constituent parts in a ‘single version of the truth’.
For example: • life expectancy in Wiltshire is higher than in England or the South West • infant mortality, obesity, development of children at age four, achievement of 16 year olds at GCSE level, participation of young people in positive activities and reducing youth offending are all good for Wiltshire, compared to similar areas elsewhere • the unemployment claimant rate is just below the regional level, and well below the national average • Wiltshire continues to retain its position as one of the safest counties in the country when it comes to recorded crime 10
Executive summary Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Issues matrix
2010
In some cases the descriptions have been edited to enable the issues to fit into the ‘wall’.
The issues raised in each of the thematic chapters of this document are summarised below.
Issues Health and wellbeing Economy
Children and young people
Community safety
Housing
Outcomes for children and young people
Broadening the employment base
Housing delivery
Transport
Transport network and economic growth
Resilient communities
Business infrastructure provision
Lifestyle choices
Health inequalities
Ageing population Resource efficiency
Polarised skill base
Resilience of Mental well Academic Things for young Disabled children children and being achievement people to do and young people young people Obesity, healthy Young people (post 16) not Domestic Drugs and Sexual in education, employment, eating and alcohol health abuse exercise or training High crime / Road Violence in the Anti-Social Behaviour Repeat Drugs and resource safety community and criminal damage offenders alcohol intensive areas Making best Affordable Prevention of Rural Fuel Military use of existing housing homelessness housing poverty accommodation housing stock
Spatial planning
Environment
Mortality and morbidity due to cancer and cardio‑vascular disease
Economic development Transport emissions and climate change
Biodiversity and the natural environment Strong and vibrant voluntary and community sector
Accessible services
Natural and built environment
Climate change and flooding
Inequality in Deaths and serious access to services, facilities and injuries on the employment due transport network to transport links
Climate change Inequalities and disadvantage
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Waste
Water
Local involvement in decision making
Effect of traffic on the natural and built environment
Carbon emissions Participation in arts and culture
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Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
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Demographics and Census Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Demographics and Census
picture of the age-sex structure of the UK population between censuses. The mid-year estimates are produced for local authority and district geographies and typically have a one year lag, so that results for mid-year 2009 are published in 2010.
Introduction: Understanding the size and structure of Wiltshire’s population is fundamental if the council and its partners are to have the ability to prioritise and deliver services efficiently across the authority. In light of the current national economic situation, this statement carries considerably greater weight than it has done for decades.
The ONS, recognising the need to understand the likely size and structure of the population in future years, also produces national projections, and sub-national (for England) projections. These projections are based on observed demographic trends and demographic assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. They show how population levels and structure will change if those trends continue and assumptions are realised.
The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) allocates funding to all local authorities in England based on population size and structure information. The primary sources of information are the Census and midyear population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) each year. Whilst the Census provides a wealth of detail on different aspects of the population, and provides information for very small geographical areas known as ‘Output Areas’, the mid-year estimates provide a relatively up-to-date
In order to arrive at detailed population projections Wiltshire Council uses a DCLG owned population modelling tool called Popgroup. This allows us to generate our own population projections based on ONS and other administrative datasets. There are numerous benefits to be had in using this population model, 13
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Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
the county vary markedly between community areas. Salisbury shows the highest density at 21.5 persons per hectare. The community areas with the next highest population densities are Trowbridge, Bradford on Avon, Melksham, Chippenham, Westbury and Corsham. Excluding the city of Salisbury, the southern area of the county is generally more rural than much of the northern and western areas, with Mere, Pewsey, Wilton and Tisbury all having around only 0.5 persons per hectare.*
not least being able to produce single year of age by sex population projections for bespoke geographies within Wiltshire such as community areas. Users of population data and demographic information produced by Wiltshire Council include the various service areas of the council, community area partnerships, community area boards, the NHS Wiltshire, Wiltshire Police and the Wiltshire Fire & Rescue Service. The information is also used in the public domain, by parish councils, local businesses and organisations and many more. Ensuring clear and easily accessible routes to this information helps improve decision-making for these bodies.
The 2009 mid-year estimates show that compared to averages in the South West, England, and the United Kingdom, Wiltshire has a higher percentage (19.6%) of its total population under the age of 16 years. It also shows that, compared to England and the United Kingdom, Wiltshire has a relatively high percentage of its total population at retirement age and over (21.6%). The combination of these two facts means that Wiltshire, of all four geographic areas, has the lowest percentage of its population at working age. Wiltshire therefore has a relatively high dependency ratio of 69.87** compared to the South West at 67.2 and England at 61.1. As the ratio increases, there is an increased pressure on the economically active part of the population to maintain the welfare of the economically dependent.
Background information: At mid-year 2009, Wiltshire Council had an estimated total population of 456,100 persons, making it the fifth largest authority in the South West. Over the period 2001-2009, Wiltshire’s population growth was 5.3%, only just below England’s at 5.4%. Population growth for the South West region was higher at 6.1%. Wiltshire is predominantly rural, covering 325,500 hectares, with an average population density of 1.4 persons per hectare. Population densities across
* Figures based on mid-year 2008 LSOA (experimental) estimates, ONS (See table II and map III in Appendix B) ** The dependency ratio is the number of persons in the ‘dependent ages’ per 100 persons in the ‘independent ages’. The dependency ratio relates the numbers of both young and old persons to the middle-aged population. This is important because in every society there are people in these two age groups who are dependent and for whom the vast majority of the ‘independent ages’ population must provide support.
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Demographics and Census Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
This is, to a large extent, a National issue in terms of education, health service, and pension provision. Parliament however, note that for our 'older' populations "the greater part of care and support
is provided by carers such as spouses, partners, family members, friends and neighbours*1. Informal care and support is therefore especially important in Wiltshire. *1 – www.parliament.uk
Table 1: 2009 Mid-year population estimates (in thousands): Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom, England, South West and Wiltshire United Kingdom England South West Wiltshire UA
Children 0-15
Working age 16-64M/59F
Retirement age 65+M/60+F
Total Persons % Persons % Persons % population 61,792,000 11,549,000 18.7 38,236,000 61.9 12,006,900 19.4 51,809,700 5,231,200 456,100
9,704,400 18.7 32,083,300 61.9 922,400 17.6 3,113,500 59.5 89,200 19.6 268,500 58.9
10,022,000 19.3 1,195,300 22.8 98,400 21.6
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Key issues:
The geographical split that exists across Wiltshire in terms of population density, as outlined several paragraphs above, also applies when presenting the difference between the proportion of the population under 16 years of age, and the proportion of the population of retirement age. Southern Wiltshire, excluding Salisbury, has a significantly ‘older’ demographic age structure compared with the northern and western parts of the county. See table II in Appendix B.
• Accurate population data • The ageing population • The military population
Accurate population data Wiltshire needs robust population projections to: satisfy current and future demands for such information; drive policy formulation; and provide a credible check to the forthcoming Census 2011 to be undertaken on 27 March 2011.
Wiltshire’s population is set to increase by 54,800 persons between 2009 and 2026, an increase of just over 12% which is below the South West average of 14.7%. However, much like the rest of the South West, it is the composition of such growth that is going to pose what is likely to be the greatest challenge to Wiltshire over the forthcoming decades: an ageing population.
A new set of population projections reflecting the changes that resulted from becoming a unitary authority will become available by the end of 2010. These include accurate population data by single year of age and sex for all 20 community areas. The projections will be mid-year 2009 based and comprise the
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Demographics and Census
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Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
The ageing population
very latest datasets from the ONS, other administrative sources, as well as locally derived information.
Wiltshire’s population is projected to increase to 511,100 persons in 2026, see table IV in Appendix B. The under 16 The results of the Census 2011 will not years of age population is projected to be made available until mid 2012. The increase from 83,000 to 84,400 persons, main issue for Wiltshire is to improve whilst the working age population, the reliability and accuracy of its aged 16 to 64 for males and 16 to 59 population evidence base and to ensure for females, is projected to increase that projections can be utilised with slightly from 274,900 persons to 277,200 confidence until the ONS provides the next series of Census data. It is necessary persons. See table V in Appendix B. to produce accurate population data so With only a 3,700 person increase in the that should the need arise, for example sub-retirement age population, Wiltshire’s if there were significant discrepancies projected 12% total population increase between the Wiltshire Council and over the next two decades will be almost Census datasets, we would be able entirely (94.4%) accounted for by our to contest the output results from the retirement age population. This poses Census 2011. As much of the funding Wiltshire with an extremely significant associated with public services is ‘ageing population’ challenge. See table predicated on population figures this is a V in Appendix B. critical requirement. Chart 1: Population pyramid showing projected age/sex structure in 2026 and projected percentage change figures 2009 – 2026, by sex for children, working age and retirement age populations, Wiltshire. Male Female 90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 16-19 10-15 5-9 0-4 20,000
46.8% 60.1% Retirement age population
-1.2% 2.6% Working age population
1.7% 15,000
10,000
5,000
1.7% Children 0
5,000
Population in age groups
Source: Office for National Statistics
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10,000
15,000
20,000
Demographics and Census Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Armed Forces population
Much of Wiltshire’s retired population will live active and healthy lives, contributing to their communities for many years. However, it must be noted that the fastest population increase has been, and will continue to be, in the number of people aged 85 years and over. There are currently more than twice as many females than males in this population group. The number of males aged 85 years and over is projected to increase by 137.8% during the period 2009 to 2026, compared to an increase of only 69.1% for females of the same age group over the same period. In total, the number of Wiltshire’s residents aged over 85 years is projected to increase from 11,800 persons in 2009 to 22,500 persons in 2026. See table VI in Appendix B
Wiltshire as a whole is characterised by its ‘rurality’ and is notable for the scale of its military presence, which is one of the largest in any county in the UK. The Salisbury Plain Training Area (SPTA) covers 150 square miles. See map IV in Appendix C. Military personnel constitute around 3.3% of the total population, and the total number of military personnel and their dependants is estimated to be around 30,000 (6.6%). Major military developments are occurring in Wiltshire that will have an impact in the county. These include the development of the Salisbury Plain Super Garrison (SPSG), the closure and potential re-use of RAF Lyneham and an increase in the stability of army units.
The cost of adult social care is known to rise significantly for this population group. Wiltshire’s Working-Age Population (WAP) is projected to decrease from 58.9% to 55.4% of total population and Wiltshire’s Retirement-Age Population (RAP) is projected to increase by almost half again from 21.6% to 29.3% of total population from 2009 to 2026. This will result in enormous pressure on public sector resources to care for Wiltshire’s older population in the future. See tables VII and VIII in Appendix B.
Overall, the numbers of military personnel stationed in Wiltshire were expected to increase from around 15,000 in 2006 to around 17,800 in 2010, mainly reflecting the increases in personnel in the SPSG. From this peak level, the total numbers of personnel are then expected to decrease to little more than 2006 levels by 2015, due to the closure of RAF Lyneham and the relocation of HQ Land Forces personnel. If Lyneham were to see a military re-use, the numbers of military personnel stationed in the county could increase again, after a temporary decline, potentially to around 18,000, approximately 3,000 above 2006 levels. See table IX in Appendix B.
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5179 6372 7096 7252 7820 6853 6621 5963 5703 5451 5437
Demographics and Census
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Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Chart 2: Change in the total number of military personnel stationed in Wiltshire between 2006 and 2016 Movement of HQs out of county
18,500 18,000
15963 18203 17951 17937
17,500
SPSG personnel increases
17,000
Potential re-use of Lyneham
16,500 16,000
Closure of RAF Lyneham
15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Wiltshire Council
presence brings significant employment to the county, while at the same time population volatility can provide a challenging environment for local businesses.
Due to the distinct demographic nature of the military population – its ‘forever young’ age profile with relatively high proportions of young children, high population turnover in large army garrisons, and a current high level of deployments – specific demands are placed on a number of council and partner services, especially when the military population accounts for a significant proportion of the community areas’ total population. The military
It is important that public service bodies remain aware of changes in the militaryrelated population in order to plan services, so that any potential decline in associated economic activity, for example as a result of the projected strategic defence review, can be countered.
Further information: Office for National Statistics – Guide to Official Statistics www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/ Wiltshire Intelligence Network – Population www.intelligencenetwork.org.uk/population-and-census/population Wiltshire Intelligence Network – The Military in Wiltshire www.intelligencenetwork.org.uk/community/the-military-in-wiltshire 18
Wiltshire Core Strategy: spatial planning Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Wiltshire Core Strategy: spatial planning
together to guide future development. The Wiltshire Core Strategy will be the main planning policy document for Wiltshire, and will form part of the LDF. The Wiltshire Core Strategy will include a vision and objectives for Wiltshire, and will identify land for future development. It will show how each community area across Wiltshire will change by 2026.
Introduction: Planning shapes the physical development and use of land. It can help to deliver housing, jobs and infrastructure to meet the needs of communities in Wiltshire having a positive influence on people’s lives. Planning has a role in protecting and enhancing the built and natural environment, and the principle of sustainable development is at its heart. Sustainable development meets the needs of the current generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Planning also has a key role in addressing the causes and impacts of climate change.
The vision of the emerging Wiltshire Core Strategy was set out in the Wiltshire 2026 consultation material in October 2009: “By 2026 Wiltshire will have a much more sustainable pattern of development, focused principally on Trowbridge, Chippenham and Salisbury. Settlements of all sizes will become more self-contained and supported by the necessary infrastructure, with a consequent reduction in the need to travel, an improvement in accessibility to local services, a greater feeling of security and the enhancement of a sense of community and place. This pattern of development, with a more sustainable approach towards transport and the generation and use of power and heat,
Planning in Wiltshire is delivered by the spatial planning and development management services. The spatial planning service is responsible for preparing the Local Development Framework (LDF) which is a group of planning policy documents which act 19
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Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
west and Swindon and London to the east. The A303 and A36 provide strategic routes from London to the South West and from Bristol to Hampshire respectively. A number of other primary roads provide north/south road linkages, including the A350 linking Chippenham, Melksham, Trowbridge, Westbury and Warminster. Although not within the county, the proximity of the M5 to the west, linked to the M4, provides good access to the north west and south west. The county also benefits from a number of mainline railway services, providing services to the larger settlements in the south, to London and to the Midlands.
will contribute towards tackling climate change. Housing, employment and other development will be provided in sustainable locations in response to local needs as well as the changing climate and incorporating exceptional standards of design. Wiltshire’s important biological and built environment will be safeguarded and, where necessary, extended and enhanced to provide appropriate green infrastructure, while advantage will be taken of the county’s heritage to promote improvements in tourism for economic benefit”.
Background information: Wiltshire lacks a single, central, urban ‘centre of gravity’, and instead is characterised by a scattering of medium sized settlements, typically market towns, interspersed with villages and hamlets. Salisbury Plain effectively splits Wiltshire into two, with Salisbury city in the southern area, and Chippenham and Trowbridge towns in the northern area. Wiltshire has important relationships with the surrounding large urban centres of Bath, Bristol, Swindon and Southampton, and lies within 115 miles of London.
The overall population increase, as seen in the Demographics and Census section, coupled with the anticipated decrease in average household size, will generate an additional demand for housing. The most recent government trend-based household projection forecast that the number of households in Wiltshire would increase by 42,900 over the two decades from 2006 to 2026, which equates to 2,145 households per annum; this equates to approximately 2,230 dwellings per annum at current occupation rates1. During the economic boom, Wiltshire delivered an average of 2,000 dwellings per annum from 1996 to 2008. In 2008/09, as the recession started to bite, this figure dropped to 1,850. This clearly indicates that housing delivery is dictated by market factors, and as such the locally defined
Wiltshire is well connected to the surrounding areas and as such these surrounding centres fuel out-commuting from Wiltshire. Wiltshire had 21,700 net out-commuters in 2001. The north of the county benefits from its proximity to the M4 corridor, which provides a strategic route to South Wales and Bristol to the
1 It is known that national forecasts do not adequately reflect the unique circumstances of Wiltshire,
particularly with regard to the high military population, and so locally based projections are being generated to identify the housing requirement for Wiltshire.
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Wiltshire Core Strategy: spatial planning Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
either the region (7.2:1) or the nation (6.3:1). Within this housing requirement, there is a need to deliver both affordable housing and gypsy and traveller pitches in order to address existing and future affordable need, homelessness and the accommodation needs of gypsies and travellers. The need for affordable housing is consistently high across the area. The Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) covering west Wiltshire, for example, proposes that in order to satisfy the current and arising affordable need of west Wiltshire over a 10-year period, 87% of total housing delivered should be affordable. However, between 2001 and 2008, only 20% of the housing delivered in Wiltshire was classed as affordable. Whilst delivering the proposed level of affordable housing is clearly unviable, the SHMA does demonstrate the acute levels of need which need to be accommodated through future housing supply.
housing requirement will need to be met through sustainable housing delivery in appropriate locations, as well as policy intervention to, for instance, make better use of existing stock.
In order to ensure that Wiltshire can plan to meet locally defined housing requirements, current government policy requires a five year supply of deliverable housing to be demonstrated. At April 2009, Wiltshire was able to demonstrate a 6.4 year supply, relative to the targets of the extant Wiltshire and Swindon Structure Plan. This supply will decrease as sites are built out, if new sites are not identified, for example in the core strategy. This highlights the need to identify further housing sites to maintain a deliverable supply into the future. Increasing the housing supply will also contribute to addressing the existing affordability problems within Wiltshire, which at present has higher house price to income ratio (7.3:1) than
Wiltshire has historically benefitted from high economic activity rates, although the growth of employment has been some way behind regional and national averages over the last decade. Public sector employment accounts for between 22.1% and 28.5% of total employment and is broadly in-line with regional and national averages2. The occupational profile of Wiltshire shows that it has been
2 National statistics place public sector employment (public administration, defence, education and health)
at 22.1%. However, this definition includes some private sector employment e.g. private care homes and private training providers. Some elements of public sector employment fall within private sector categories e.g. GP surgeries. The South West Observatory has calculated a proxy to account for these inconsistencies and estimates public sector employment to account for 28.5% of total employment. Public sector employment will be reduced over the coming years, but the local economy is expected to be relatively resilient in accommodating them.
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car: 66.5% as compared to 61.1% nationally. This is exacerbated by the fact that Wiltshire has a low number of jobs compared to the number of resident working people: 0.9 jobs per person as compared to 0.97 jobs per person nationally, and so people are inclined to commute out of the area. In terms of barriers to housing and services, 37 of the 281 nationally determined small areas (lower super output areas) within Wiltshire are within the 10% most deprived areas nationally. This reflects the largely rural and dispersed nature of the area. Indeed, in 2008 it was estimated that some 67,000 of Wiltshire’s population were beyond 30 minutes of the nearest retail centre (defined as the large settlements within and surrounding Wiltshire) using public transport, some 46,000 were beyond 30 minutes of a supermarket and some 44,000 were beyond 30 minutes of an employment centre (defined as the market town centres and industrial estates).
successful in moving towards higher level jobs. However, workers in these higher level jobs tend to travel further distances, and in Wiltshire constitute 65% of the out-commuters from the area. Workplace-based incomes are also lower than residence-based incomes, which indicates that some of the higher level workers may choose to live in areas with a quality living environment, as in Wiltshire, whilst taking advantage of the higher pay available outside of the area. This may present an opportunity for Wiltshire to encourage out-commuters to work within the county by providing higher level jobs. The increased population will present an additional need for employment opportunities. The South West Growth Scenarios (South West Observatory, 2010) identify a projected increase of between 14,200 and 33,400 jobs in Wiltshire from 2009 to 2026, depending on the scenario. The sub-national population projections identify an increase in the working age population of only 2,400 between 2009 and 2026. As such, this level of job growth will need to be accommodated by both encouraging existing out-commuters to change jobs, and by delivering sufficient housing to accommodate a higher working age population.
Wiltshire is home to a rich natural and built environment, although this has been somewhat degraded over time. As a result, much of Wiltshire is covered by various local, national and international designations. Of particular note are the AONBs of Cranborne Chase and the West Wiltshire Downs, the North Wessex Downs and the Cotswolds. These AONBs cover 44% of the land area of Wiltshire, as compared to 29% of land covered by AONBs regionally and 15% nationally. A significant area is also designated as Sites of Special Scientific
Owing to the dispersed nature of settlements and facilities, commuting journeys are longer from Wiltshire: 15.8km as compared to 13.3km nationally, and are more reliant on the
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Wiltshire Core Strategy: spatial planning Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
growth, and should maintain a rolling five-year supply of housing land to make sure this delivery is maintained. Providing suitable housing in the right location will contribute to addressing a number of identified issues including:
Interest (SSSI) and Special Areas of Conservation (SACs), and Wiltshire also contains the World Heritage Site of Stonehenge, Avebury and associated sites. The combined average domestic gas and electricity energy consumption within Wiltshire is higher than that of both the region and the nation. This is also the case for industrial and commercial energy consumption. Wiltshire also has comparatively little installed renewable heat and electricity capacity compared to elsewhere in the region. Furthermore, the per capita emissions of carbon dioxide within Wiltshire are above those of both the region and the nation. Nationally, some 30% of total energy consumption goes on domestic uses, which may be reduced by ensuring that low or zerocarbon homes are delivered in the future. Furthermore, some 35% is consumed in transportation, and it may be possible to reduce this by reducing the need to travel.
• providing affordable housing to meet the identified need • reducing affordability problems within Wiltshire • reducing the need to commute • reducing the residential carbon footprint of domestic users • delivering the house types and sizes required, to make better use of existing stock • supporting the economic growth of Wiltshire. However, it must be realised that this growth will increase demand on local infrastructure and social facilities, and this needs to be planned for.
Economic development As identified in the Economy section, there is a need to broaden the economic base in Wiltshire and to offer quality employment opportunities for all residents, thereby reducing outcommuting.
Key issues: • Housing delivery • Economic development • Service provision and transportation • Natural and built environment
Service provision and transportation
• Climate change and flooding
Certain communities within Wiltshire experience undesirable levels of social exclusion as a result of their isolation from essential services and facilities. This should be addressed by ensuring
Housing delivery Wiltshire needs to deliver additional homes in the future to meet existing need and the demand generated by population 23
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sustainable manner. Wiltshire contains a rich built heritage which is an important asset to be safeguarded and which should be reflected in new development. Well designed developments help to provide a sense of place, add to local distinctiveness and promote community cohesiveness and social well-being. New development will need to respect and enhance Wiltshire’s distinctive characteristics.
that services are located in appropriate locations and by maximising the potential of town centres, ensuring that each is complementary and matches the needs of the local community. Strategic transport links are also vital for the efficient function of Wiltshire’s economy, and to enable the population to reach less accessible services such as hospitals. Ensuring that services are provided in accessible locations and that sustainable transport services are available will contribute to addressing the following issues:
Climate change and flooding Climate change is possibly the greatest long-term challenge facing the world today. Tackling climate change is therefore a key government priority for the planning system. Wiltshire both consumes high levels of energy and has little renewable capacity at present. This presents a major opportunity for Wiltshire to improve its performance. The anticipated effects of climate change could potentially increase the frequency of flood events within Wiltshire. Development will need to take due consideration of flooding. More detail on this issue is shown in the Environment chapter.
• reducing the need to commute • reducing the carbon footprint generated by transportation • reducing congestion.
Natural and built environment Wiltshire’s natural environment is a significant asset which needs to be appropriately safeguarded and promoted in a sustainable way. Wiltshire’s limited supply of previously developed land, coupled with the requirements to deliver significant housing and employment growth, needs to be planned in a
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Wiltshire Core Strategy: spatial planning Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Evidence table: Wiltshire
South West
England
Population growth 1991-2009 (ONS SNPP)
14.4%
11.6%
8.2%
Population growth 2009-2026 (ONS SNPP)
12.0%
14.7%
12.6%
Military population 2001 (DASA)
3.3%
0.8%
0.3%
House price to income ratio (ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Land Registry)
7.3:1
7.2:1
6.3:1
Population density 2009 persons per hectare (ONS mid-year estimates)
1.4
2.2
4.0
2.38
2.31
2.36
£186,817
£176,278
-
Economic activity rate (ONS Census)
0.72
0.68
0.67
Average distance of travel to work 2001 (km) (ONS Census)
15.8
14.0
13.3
Average (mean) workplace based gross full time earnings 2008 (ONS ASHE)
£28,002
£27,347
-
Average (mean) residence based gross full time earnings 2008 (ONS ASHE)
£30,555
£27,638
-
Commuters travelling by car 2001 (ONS Census)
66.5%
64.9%
61.1%
Jobs to employment ratio 2001 (ONS Census) indicative of the capacity of the area to meet the needs of the workforce
90.0%
98.7%
99.6%
Self-containment 2001; the proportion of working residents employed in the area (ONS Census)
75.9%
95.4%
99.6%
44%
30%
15.7%
7%
4%
9%
Land designated as SSSI
8.3%
7%
8.3%
Land designated as World Heritage Site (Wiltshire Council)
1.5%
1.2%
0.7%
Average household size (ONS Census)
†
Average house price June 2010 (Land Registry)
Land designated as AONB Land designated as SAC (Wiltshire Council)
Energy consumption and CO2 figures are available in the Environment section. †
The number of economically active persons divided by working age population
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Further information: Wiltshire 2026 consultation and background material www.wiltshire.gov.uk/wiltshire2026.htm South Wiltshire Core Strategy submission draft www.wiltshire.gov.uk/southwiltshirecorestrategy.htm West of England Strategic Housing Market Assessment www.westofengland.org/planning--housing/housing-market-partnership/ strategic-housing-market-assessment Wiltshire Annual Monitoring Report www.wiltshire.gov.uk/annualmonitoringreport.htm
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Health and wellbeing Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Health and wellbeing
and the area boards. The partnership promotes the health and wellbeing agenda across Wiltshire to partners, including the voluntary sector and the wider population, and works with relevant groups and established sub-groups where necessary to implement specific action plans and evaluate effectiveness of health and wellbeing programmes.
Introduction: The health and wellbeing partnership’s purpose is to support the people of Wiltshire to lead happy and healthy lives. It aims to do this by: • supporting more people to have independent and fulfilling lives as part of their local community
Background information:
• providing strong foundations for children and young people’s development
Life expectancy at birth is often used as a measure of the overall health of a population. Life expectancy in all parts of England has increased over the last century and this general trend is continuing1. Currently, life expectancy for people in Wiltshire is higher than in England or the South West. Life expectancy in Wiltshire is 79.4 years for men and 83.3 years for women2.
• enabling people to improve their longterm health and wellbeing. The health and wellbeing partnership provides a leadership role in taking forward the health and wellbeing agenda in Wiltshire, through policy and strategy development and working collaboratively with other multi-agency Wiltshire Assembly partnership boards
Mortality from all causes in the under-75 age group has been declining in Wiltshire,
1 www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp99/rp99-111.pdf
A Century of Change: Trends in UK statstics since 1900, Hicks & Allen, House of Commons Library. ISBN 1368-8456 2 Wiltshire Health Profile 2010, source: APHO and Department of Health. © Crown Copyright 2010. www.healthprofiles.info
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Key issues:
the South West and England3. However, in 2008 there were 1,240 deaths under the age of 75, representing 29% of all deaths in the county4. The two major causes of premature death nationally, and in Wiltshire, are cardiovascular disease (including coronary heart disease and stroke) and cancers (malignant neoplasms). These accounted for over 65% of premature deaths (ie under 75) in Wiltshire in 20085. In 2005-2007, there was a 15% difference in mortality rates between the fifth least deprived and the fifth most deprived wards in the county6. Infant mortality rates have declined between 2000-2002 and 2005-2007 in Wiltshire and are lower than those of the South West and England, at 3.2 per 1,000 live births in 2005-2007.7
• Children and young people • Cancer and cardiovascular disease • Lifestyle choices • Health inequalities • Ageing population
Children and young people • Infant mortality rates have declined between 2000-02 and 2005-07 in Wiltshire and are lower than those of the South West and England at 3.2 per 1,000 live births in 2005-07.9 In 2008 the total number of deaths in the under 19 age group was 44, of which 11 were pre-28 days. Unintentional injury was the leading cause of death in children aged one to 14 years in Wiltshire in 200810 and this accounts for more hospital admissions than any other cause11. Nationally children from deprived backgrounds are 15 times more likely to be injured than those from less deprived backgrounds.12
In 2008, 77% of Wiltshire’s residents reported that their health was good or very good8, although this varied greatly with age. Approximately a third of the population reported that they have a long-standing illness, infirmity or disability; and this increases with age.
3 Mortality from all causes, 1993-2008 (annual trends), Version 08_V1, December 2009. NHS Information
Centre for health and social care. © Crown Copyright. 4 Ibid 3. 5 Vital statistics, ONS 2008. 6 All Age All Cause Mortality (AAACM) for Top Tier graphs in the South West, South West Public Health
Observatory, 2009. 7 Mortality in infancy, 2000-2008. The NHS Information Centre for health and social care, © Crown
Copyright. 8 DCLG Place survey, Autumn 2008 combined with Wiltshire Household survey, 2008. 9 Ibid 7 10 Ibid 5 11 Audit Commission (2007) Better Safe than Sorry: preventing unintentional injury to children. 12 Towner, E. and Ward, H. (1998) ‘Prevention of injuries to children and young people: the way ahead for the
UK’ Injury Prevention; 4:17-25.
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Health and wellbeing Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
at least one alcoholic drink in the previous week.
• In 2008, Wiltshire had an under 18 conception rate of 30.9 per 1,000 females aged 15 to 17, which is the equivalent of one in 33 girls becoming pregnant.13 This was lower than rates in England and the South West. However, the rate has declined by 6% since 1998 compared to a target reduction of 50%.
• In 2007-2008 children aged five in Wiltshire had an average of 0.95 decayed, filled or missing teeth, which was significantly lower than the figure for England (1.11) and lower than that for the South West18.
Cancer and cardiovascular disease
• The proportion of school pupils eating five or more portions of fruit and vegetables a day in Wiltshire is 24%, compared with 19% in England14.
A major burden of disease and premature death is related to chronic diseases* such as cancers and cardiovascular disease (CVD) such as chronic heart disease and stroke.
• Wiltshire’s rates of childhood obesity are below the national and regional averages. However, 2008/2009 data demonstrates that one in 12 boys and one in 14 girls in Reception year and one in six boys and one in eight girls in Year 6 were obese.15
• In 2007 in Wiltshire, 47% of deaths under the age of 75 in women and 36% of deaths under the age of 75 in men were caused by cancer19.
• There has been a continued decline in the number of young people smoking in Wiltshire.16 Girls are more likely than boys to smoke.
• In 2007 in Wiltshire, 23% of deaths under the age of 75 in women and 29% of deaths under the age of 75 in men were caused by CVD.
• Illegal drug use among Wiltshire’s secondary school pupils has declined from 19% in 2002 to 8% in 2008.17 The same survey identified that 33% of secondary school pupils had had
• The three sites of cancer causing the highest mortality rates in Wiltshire were, in order, females: breast, lung and colorectal cancer; males: lung, colorectal and prostate cancer. For
* Chronic diseases are persistent and long lasting medical conditions
13 Wiltshire Health profile 2010 and South West Health Profile 2010, Source: APHO and Department of
Health. © Crown Copyright 2010. www.healthprofiles.info 14 Tellus survey (2009), DCSF. 15 National Child measuremeny Programme: England, 2008/09 school year December 2009, The Health and Social Care Information Centre. 16 2008 Health Related Behaviour Survey (Wiltshire). 17 Ibid 16. 18 NHS Dental Epidemiology Programme for England: Oral Health Survey of 5 year old children 2007/2008 www.nwph.net/dentalhealth October 2009. 19 ONS, Vital statistics (table 3), 2007.
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both males and females, there was a significantly lower rate of mortality from lung cancer compared with England20.
• There were 678 individuals from Wiltshire registered in structured drug treatment (tiers 3 and 4) between October 2008 and September 2009.26
Lifestyle choices
• It is estimated that in Wiltshire there are currently 22,115 older people (65 plus) who are obese and that this will increase to 35,848 by 2030.27
Both cancer and CVD are strongly associated with lifestyles or health behaviours. These lifestyle risk factors include smoking, alcohol consumption, drug misuse, sexual behaviour, healthy eating, physical activity and obesity.
• Just 14% of adults in Wiltshire have 30 minutes of moderate intensity physical activity on five or more days of the week.28
• 20.2% of adults in Wiltshire are smokers compared to 21.4% for the South West region, and 22.2% for England21. 15.2% of pregnant women in Wiltshire smoked at the time of delivery, compared to 14.6% for England as a whole22. Smoking levels are significantly higher among routine and manual workers compared to the rest of the population23.
• 29.4% of people in Wiltshire meet the healthy eating target of five or more portions of fruit or vegetables a day, a similar percentage to the South West (29.6%) and England (28.7%).29 • In the two years 2007 and 2008, 46 people aged 15 and over were diagnosed with HIV in Wiltshire.30
Health inequalities
• In 2008-2009 there were an estimated 7,446 alcohol-related in-patient24 hospital admissions in Wiltshire, amounting to 1,342 per 100,000 people.25
Although Wiltshire is generally not a deprived area,31 the county has pockets of deprivation including three local areas that lie amongst the 20%
20 Mortality from cancer, 2006-2008. The NHS Information Centre for health and social care.
© Crown Copyright, December 2009. 21 Health Survey for England 2006-2008. 22 Ibid 2. 23 Tackling health inequalities: targeting routine and manual smokers in support of the public service agreement smoking prevalence and health inequality targets, DH/National Support Team – Tobacco Control, June 2009. 24 i.e. not accident and emergency attendances. 25 Profile of alcohol related harm – Wiltshire, North West Public Health Observatory www.nwph.net/alcohol/lape 26 NDTMS South West drug and alcohol quarterly data report: second quarter 2009/10. National Drug Treatment monitoring System (NDTMS), South West, January 2010. 27 Health Survey for England 2000, The Health of Older People, DH. Accessed via Projecting Older People Population Information System: www.poppi.org.uk 28 Ibid 13 29 Ibid 13 30 Sexual health local profile – South West, quarterly report: November 2008. Health Protection Agency South West regional epidemiology unit. 31 Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007, DCLG.
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Health and wellbeing Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
most deprived in England. In addition, aspects of rural deprivation are difficult to quantify yet are of particular relevance in this county, in which proportionally more of the population live in a rural setting. In 2005-2007, there was a 15% difference in mortality rates between the fifth least deprived and the fifth most deprived wards in the county.32 This is low compared to other areas but, nevertheless, represents clear inequalities in health outcomes within the local population. Many major conditions are strongly correlated to deprivation as are the lifestyles that contribute to them. Among the interventions that are evidenced to reduce the life expectancy gap are smoking cessation; statin*1 therapy, use of anti‑hypertensives*2 and early detection of cancer.33
information on deprived areas please see Appendix A.
Ageing population The age structure of the Wiltshire population is projected to change in the coming years, with a notable increase in the proportion of the population aged over 65. This will have a significant impact on the health and social care needs of the population, including: • an increased burden of chronic diseases associated with old age • an associated increase in demand on health services, including increased numbers of hospital admissions • increased uptake of adult social care services across all client groups. An ageing population will also have an impact on neurological, rheumatologic and orthopaedic conditions, dementia and falls. There are around 41,300 carers in Wiltshire with 77% of these of working age and 20.5% aged over 65.34 The number of people in Wiltshire in a carer role is expected to increase with a shift in the population structure to that of an ageing population. See the demographics and census section for more information.
There are a range of wider determinants of health that impact on inequalities including rurality, transport deprivation, service deprivation and housing deprivation. The increased needs of particular groups such as families, young people, the elderly, disabled persons and carers*3, the military, prisons, black and minority ethnic groups and gypsies and travellers and the way these are met can also affect the inequality gap. For more
*1 a class of drug used to lower cholesterol levels. *2 a class of drug used to treat hypertension (high blood pressure). *3 people looking after or giving help or support to family members, friends, neighbours or others because of long term physical or mental ill health or disability or because of problems associated with old age. 32 Ibid 6 33 Tackling Health Inequalities: 2004-06 data and policy update for the National Target, Department of
Health, Health Inequalities Unit, Dec 2007. 34 2001 Census and 2008 mid year populatio estimates, ONS
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Evidence table: 35 Wiltshire People living in 20% most deprived areas in England
England
1.2%
19.9%
Children in poverty
11.6%
22.4%
Smoking in pregnancy
15.2%
14.6%
Mothers initiating breast feeding
83.0%
72.5%
Pupils undertaking 3 hours+ school sport a week
59.5%
49.6%
Obese children in Reception year
7.8%
9.6%
Decayed, filled or missing teeth in children aged 5
0.95
1.11
Teenage (under 18) conception rate per 1,000 (girls 15-17)
30.9
40.9
Life expectancy – male (years)
79.4
77.9
Life expectancy – female (years)
83.3
82.0
19.0%
20.1%
1,342
1,582
Physically active adults
14.2%
11.2%
Adults who smoke
20.2%
22.2%
Obese adults
25.0%
24.2%
66.4
51.3
Binge drinking adults Alcohol related hospital admissions per 100,000 population36
Road injuries and deaths per 100,000 people (2006-2008)
Further information: Joint Strategic Needs Assessment: www.wiltshirejsna.org/ Community Area Health JSNAs*: http://bit.ly/wiltsjsna-ca-pdf Health Inequalities strategy: www.wiltshirepct.nhs.uk/Publications/Strategies/ HealthInequalitiesStrategy_2007_2010.pdf Profile of alcohol related harm – Wiltshire, North West Public Health Observatory: www.nwph.net/alohol/lape * Short url redirects to http://www.wiltshirejsna.org/PDF%20Versions%20to%20 Download.aspx
35 Ibid 2 36 Ibid 25
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Economy Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Economy
or that in north Wiltshire. These distinct economies are called functional economic market areas.
Introduction: An economy can be defined as activities relating to the production and provision of goods and services in a particular geographic area. The economy is therefore important to the people of Wiltshire as it provides them with employment and skills opportunities and thereby economic well-being. The provision of goods and services in turn underpins the development of vibrant settlements and the requirement for the provision of amenities, as well as transportation and communication linkages.
In terms of the economic remit of the Wiltshire Strategic Economic Partnership (WSEP), its focus is on: innovation, enterprise, employment, education and skills, carbon reduction, appropriate infrastructure provision and business engagement.
The term ‘economy’ is wide ranging and impacts on, links into, or touches on every aspect of business and personal life. Wiltshire has a diverse geography and varied industrial base and, as a result, a number of economies operate in the county as opposed to one contiguous system. The economy in south Wiltshire, for example, is quite distinct to that found in mid-Wiltshire,
Resilient means better able to respond to shocks in the global economy, which means broadening the employment base so that the economy is less dependent on public sector employment and less dependent on activity in neighbouring areas for trade and jobs; ensuring the right environment for new businesses to start and survive, along with existing businesses.
WSEP’s vision is to create a resilient, sustainable and competitive economy characterised by a greater proportion of higher value, higher skilled jobs. Resilient, sustainable and competitive are defined as follows:
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force provides a relatively low economic output per capita, disposable income is very high relative to regional and national values.
Sustainable means enabling the transition to a low carbon economy characterised by reduced waste, greater energy efficiency, reduced transport movements and greater renewable energy production. It means supporting key growth sectors that have the greatest prospects of growth in Wiltshire in the future and which deliver higher productivity and value to the Wiltshire economy.
Wiltshire’s employment growth rate has been some way behind the regional and national pictures over the last decade. However, it has a high self-employment rate, high business density and very healthy success rate for start-up survival (those still active after three years in business); suggesting that the county has a combination of entrepreneurial individuals and the conditions in which to foster these. Growth in business stocks has been very high in recent years (analysis to 2008), whilst the bias of business types remains around labourefficient micro-businesses and small firms. Public administration and defence continue to account for a high proportion of employment, despite some downsizing in recent years.
Competitive means creating a location of choice where businesses are welcomed, listened to, involved in setting local economic priorities and supported in terms of the availability of appropriate infrastructure and skills; it is about building confidence that will encourage private sector investment in Wiltshire.
Background information: Wiltshire’s projected population growth rate is somewhat lower than that anticipated at a regional level, more closely matching the national average.
Academic attainment of five or more GCSEs at grade A*-C is just below the national average, and markedly above the regional level, although where this includes both mathematics and English, Wiltshire outperforms both by a significant margin, suggesting the availability of key skills in its labour force is relatively good.
There is a significant disparity between workplace-based and residential-based earnings, far more pronounced than regionally. Those who live, but do not work, in the county earn higher average salaries than Wiltshire based employees This is linked to a net daily out-migration of the population for work, and a relatively high proportion of residents working in higher level positions, for example management. This factor is reflected in the fact that whilst Wiltshire’s labour
The unemployment claimant rate amongst the population is just below the regional level, and well below the national average. However, economic inactivity is still relatively high for other reasons, such as retirement, looking after home/ 34
Economy Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
which to live, but not to work. In addition, a large proportion of employment in the county is within the public sector and this will fall as government cuts are realised. By broadening the employment base, the aim is to address these weaknesses and develop a sector profile which will be competitive in the future and also offer quality employment opportunities for all residents and thereby reduce outcommuting.
children, and so on, the latter closely linked to high residential incomes. The property market in Wiltshire shows a very high average house price when compared to the national picture, and also appears somewhat higher than the regional value. This may be due to the type of housing stock found in Wiltshire, with a predominance of larger properties and relatively low-density development. This again links in clearly with the picture of out-commuting for a majority of more senior-level jobs, predominantly rural environment and high self-employment and business survival rates.
Business infrastructure provision does not meet demand In order to support the work to broaden the employment base, Wiltshire needs to provide an attractive environment for both businesses and residents. This includes ensuring that development and regeneration activity takes place in appropriate locations where businesses want to operate and people want to live, as well as providing appropriate commercial sites and premises supported by an appropriate ICT and transport network.
Key issues: • Dependency on public sector employment, low value economic activity and neighbouring areas for trade and jobs • Business infrastructure provision • Inequalities between resident-based and workplace-based earnings and skills levels
There are inequalities between resident-based and workplacebased earnings and skills levels
• Improving resource efficiency
Dependency on public sector employment, low value economic activity and neighbouring areas for trade and jobs
The skills base of Wiltshire is relatively polarised with a high proportion of residents with high skills levels, but equally a significant proportion with poor basic skills and, as a result of the recession, increasing unemployment levels and a worsening ‘Not in Employment, Education or Training’ (NEET) issue amongst young people.
Traditionally, Wiltshire has been dominated by low value, low skilled manufacturing and service sectors, but this is unsustainable in the future. As a result it has become an attractive county for the higher skilled and higher paid in
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Wiltshire businesses and organisations need to improve their resource efficiency
carbon emissions by 80% by 2050. This will result in increased regulation for businesses and organisations to improve resource efficiency.
The UK government is committed to legally-binding targets to reduce
Evidence table: Wiltshire
South West
England
Earnings, output and spending Median full-time earnings (workplace) 2008 (ONS ASHE)
£24,133
£23,161
£24,913
Median full-time earnings (residence) 2008 (ONS ASHE)
£25,719
£23,422
£24,924
Economic output per capita 2006
£16,574
£17,386
£19,413
Gross Disposable Household Income per capita 2007
£15,417
£14,187
£14,556
4.9%
5.5%
5.4%
9%
13%
12%
Business self-employment rate 2008
16%
15%
14%
Proportion in higher level jobs 2008†
47%
43%
43%
Unemployed claimant rate Oct 2009
2.7%
2.9%
4.1%
506
449
409
68%
67%
64%
24.9%
19.5%
21.3%
12.0%
14.7%
12.6%
Annual Gross Value Added growth rate 1996-2006 Employment Overall jobs growth (last decade) 2008
Business Business density (per 10,000 adults) 2008 Start-up survival rate (3+ years) 2006 Change in stocks for VAT reg. business 1998-2008 Population Population growth 2009-2026 (ONS SNPP)
Education and skills Attainment of 5+ GCSE grades A*-C 2008
64.5%
62.7%
64.8%
Above, inc. maths and English 2008
53.0%
48.8%
47.3%
£186,817
£172,278
97%
117%
Housing Average house price Sept 2010 House price rise 1999-2009
– 111%
Source: Wiltshire Strategic Economic Assessment 2007-2008
†Defined as managers, senor officials, professional or associate professional and technical occupations
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Economy Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Further information: Wiltshire Strategic Economic Assessment 2007-2008 (published December 2009) www.intelligencenetwork.org.uk/economy/ Draft Strategy for the Economy in Wiltshire
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Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
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Children and young people Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Children and young people
suggest the following picture: Outcomes which are good – infant mortality, emotional/mental health, obesity, development of children at age four, achievement of 16 year olds at GCSE level, participation of young people in positive activities, reducing youth offending.
Introduction: Our ambitions are high and we want the very best outcomes for Wiltshire’s children and young people. There is much to celebrate in Wiltshire and we are building on what has already been achieved. Outcomes for most children and young people in Wiltshire are comparatively good, but we want them to be even better. Through the Children and Young People’s Plan (CYPP) we aim to improve the wellbeing of our children and young people – and specifically to help ensure, with a particular emphasis on vulnerable groups, that all children and young people are healthy, stay safe, enjoy and achieve, and make a positive contribution and achieve economic wellbeing.
Outcomes which are satisfactory – healthy eating and exercise, breast feeding, tooth decay, smoking, substance misuse, services for disabled children, feeling safe from crime and antisocial behaviour, domestic abuse, child protection, support for looked after children, school attendance, young people in the NEET category, child poverty, achievement by age 19, availability and affordability of transport. Outcomes in need of improvement: • support for looked-after children: emotional health, offending behaviour and placement stability
Background information: National indicators enable comparison of outcomes for Wiltshire against similar areas. The most recent comparisons
• reducing teenage pregnancy • timeliness of social care assessments
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without developing long-term emotional and behavioural disorders.
• bullying • behaviour in secondary schools • achievement of 11 year olds in school
Mental wellbeing
• achievement of vulnerable groups in schools: those in receipt of free school meals, those with Special Educational Needs (SEN) and children who are looked after by the council
The 2008 Tomorrow’s Voice Autumn Survey asked about the main source of stress in respondents’ lives. The most frequently selected issues were coping with school grades, or achieving good grades, feeling good about weight, image, and fitness, and life at home. Mental health is a key part of being healthy – and physical health can also be adversely affected by mental health disorders. Resilience and good mental health help to protect from harm and conversely mental health disorders increase vulnerability. Mental health disorders can result in great unhappiness and can hamper achievement in all areas of development, importantly including educational development, and can find expression in Anti-Social Behaviour (ASB). Promoting good mental health is also a key priority for the Wiltshire Assembly of Youth.
• care leavers finding suitable accommodation and participating in education, employment or training.
Key issues: • Resilience • Mental wellbeing • Achievement • Disabled children and young people • Things for young people to do • Young people (post 16) NEET • Domestic abuse • Obesity, healthy eating and exercise • Drugs and alcohol • Sexual health
Achievement
Resilience
In 2009, Wiltshire's educational results were good for four year olds and generally good for 16 year olds. However, results for 11 year olds and pupils from vulnerable groups for both 11 and 16 year olds were not good. The percentage of pupils with SEN achieving Key Stage (KS) 2 in English and mathematics was 54.5 percentage points lower than pupils without SEN. This gap was larger than for comparator authorities or England. For children and young people achievement
Only 58.8% of children in Wiltshire enjoy good relationships with their family and friends.1 Resilient families support the development of resilient children. Resilient children and young people are better able to resist stress and adversity, to cope with change and uncertainty, and recover more rapidly and completely from traumatic events or episodes. They can experience problems and difficulties
1 NI 50 Emotional health of children: percentage of children who enjoy good relationships with their family
and friends. DCSF LAIT NI 50
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Children and young people Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Tellus survey2 reports that Wiltshire does relatively well with 72.6% of young people taking part in positive activities outside of school hours.
is one of the keys to life success and securing good long-term outcomes. Success builds self-confidence and raises life aspirations. Good educational achievement is a significant protective factor.
Things for young people to do
Disabled children and young people
Nationally the majority of media stories about young people associate them with problems such as ASB and almost a third of adults think that ‘young people hanging around’ is a major problem in their neighbourhood. In Wiltshire this also regularly appears as a concern in surveys. Young people are increasingly spending time in social rather than family situations and how young people spend their leisure time really matters. Participation in constructive leisure time activities can have a significant impact on young people’s outcomes in later life. The
It is estimated that in the UK almost 20% 3 of children and young people are disabled according to the widest definition, while 7% 4 are more significantly disabled. Disabled children and young people want joined-up services, better information and support to help them settle into schools and make transitions, more choice of respite care and a real say in the plans that are made for them. A recent perception survey5 for parents which measured satisfaction with services placed Wiltshire in line with the national average.
2 Tellus4survey 2009 3 General household survey 1990-96, 1998, 2000 4 ONS(2004) ‘Living in Britain: results from the 2002 General Household Survey’ 5 Commissioned by DCSF to measure NI 54 satisfaction of services for disabled children
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Young people (post 16) NEET
authorities. However, there are hotspots where obesity levels are high. Healthy eating and exercise have a central part in ensuring good health. A healthy diet and exercise can contribute to improved self-esteem; promote concentration and the improved use of educational opportunities; and encourage fulfilling leisure activities.
2009/10 data6 shows Wiltshire’s NEET percentage to be better than the national average, but not as good as comparable areas. The incidence of NEET is not evenly distributed across Wiltshire. Young people who become NEET do so for varying periods of time. Young people in vulnerable groups (those with learning difficulties and disabilities; care leavers; young mothers; those who are homeless; those with personal/social barriers; and those in the youth justice system) have more difficulty securing and maintaining an education, employment or training opportunity.
Drugs and alcohol The Tellus survey shows Wiltshire as having 9.6% of young people reporting frequent substance misuse, which is lower than the national figure and the figure for comparable authorities. This covers both the involvement of children and young people in both drug and alcohol misuse and the impact on them of drug and alcohol misuse by others. Drugs and alcohol misuse is often a contributory factor to other social problems, including ASB. Young people feel they do not get enough good quality information when they need it about drugs and alcohol and the related services available.
Domestic abuse It has been estimated that during a year 17,000 children and young people in Wiltshire are affected by domestic abuse.7 Throughout 20072008, Women’s refuges in Wiltshire accommodated 147 women, and more than 150 children. Physical and emotional health and development are likely to be affected by domestic abuse. Relationships can be affected; there will be anxiety and stress and possibly an impact on educational achievement; self-esteem and the ability to enjoy life’s experiences.
Sexual health Although the teenage conception rate for 2008 in Wiltshire was relatively low compared to the national rate per 1,000 girls under 18, there are still some hotspots that have high rates and overall rates need to reduce faster. Being a teenage mother can impact on both the mother’s and child’s future life chances, for example resulting in poor
Obesity, healthy eating and exercise Obesity amongst children in Wiltshire is relatively low and compares well with both the national figures and comparator
6 NI117 DCSF LAIT, 2009/10 7 Children and Young People in Wiltshire – Needs Assessment April 2010/ Community Safety/ Drug and
Alcohol Team
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Children and young people Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
educational attainment and employment opportunities, and so reducing the prevalence must be a high priority. Also,
sexually active teenagers sometimes acquire a sexually transmitted infection and often do not practise safe sex.
Evidence table:* Wiltshire NI 50 Emotional health of children – children who enjoy good relationships with their family and friends
Comparable authorities
England
58.8%
55.6%
56.0%
NI 73 Achievement at level 4 or above in both English and maths at Key Stage 2
71%
72.4%
72%
NI 99 Children in care reaching level 4 in English at Key Stage 2
50%
50%
46%
NI 100 Children in care reaching level 4 in maths at Key Stage 2
50%
49.7%
46%
14.3%
7.6%
9.8%
30.0
27.1
22.3
29.4
32.6
27.8
NI 104 The SEN/non-SEN gap – achieving KS 2 English and maths‡
54.5
52.9
50.9
NI 105 The SEN/non-SEN gap – achieving five A* – C GCSE inc. English and maths‡
46.9
48.7
46.5
72.6%
69.8%
65.8%
NI 54 Satisfaction of services for disabled children
61%
61.7%
61%
NI 117 16 to 18 year olds who are NEET
6.1%
5.3%
6.4%
NI 55 Obesity among primary school age children in Reception Year
7.8%
8.6%
9.6%
NI 56 Obesity among primary school age children in Year 6
14.7%
16.1%
18.3%
9.6%
10.6%
9.8%
5.64% 30.3 (rate) (2008)
29.7 (rate)
13.3% 40.4 (rate)
NI 101 Children in care achieving five A*-C GCSEs (or equivalent) at Key Stage 4 (including English and maths) NI 102 Achievement gap between pupils eligible for free school meals and their peers achieving the expected level at a) KS 2 and b) KS 4‡
NI 110 Young people’s participation in positive activities
NI 115 Substance misuse by young people NI 112 Reduction in under 18 conception rate per 1,000 (girls 15-17)
* NIs 50, 54, 110 and 117 contain data from 2009/10 financial year NIs 115 contains data from 2008/09 financial year NIs 50, 56, 73, 99, 100, 101, 102, 104 and 105 contain data from 2008/09 academic year NIs 112 contains data from calendar year 2008 ‡
gap expressed as percentage points difference in acheivement
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Further information: The Pathways website has further information: • A fuller summary needs assessment • The Children and Young People’s Plan with associated action plans for improvement www.wiltshirepathways.org/GenPage.asp?ID=18 The Children and Young People’s Plan is currently under review and consultation; the aim is for release in September 2011.
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Community safety Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Community safety
or through matters raised locally, for example through area boards or other fora.
Introduction: One of the top public priorities in Wiltshire is community safety and addressing the fear of crime. Even though Wiltshire is one of the safest areas in the country, there is still a need to reassure the public in relation to crime, drugs and alcohol, and Anti-Social Behaviour (ASB), and to increase public confidence in the criminal justice system.
Background information: Community safety is frequently measured by the level of crime within an area. When Wiltshire county is compared to a number of similar geographical areas across the country, it records the lowest level of crime per 1,000 population. This figure has remained constant for a number of years, cementing Wiltshire’s position as one of the safest counties in the country when it comes to recorded crime. Even so, there are considerable variations across the 20 geographical communities recognised within Wiltshire and certain crime types still require addressing.
Our aim is to improve the quality of life of everyone who lives and works in the county in relation to crime, community safety and substance misuse reduction by assisting in strengthening our communities to deal with local issues as they are identified by this assessment,
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Chart 3: Crimes per thousand population, Wiltshire, August 2009 to July 2010 80
Crime per thousand
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Most similar areas Most similargeographical geographical area Source: iQuanta
suffered 5,066 violent offences which is 11.16 crimes per thousand head of population. Of these, 4,665 were violent attacks against a person such as common assault, Actual Bodily Harm (ABH) and Grievous Bodily Harm (GBH); 328 were sexual offences and 73 were robberies.
Key issues: • Violence in the community • Anti-Social Behaviour (ASB) and criminal damage • Integrated offender management • Drugs and alcohol • Hotspot areas
The biggest threat of violence to the inhabitants of Wiltshire is caused by the night-time economy where excessive alcohol consumption can play a key role in the orchestration of aggressive behaviour.
• Road safety
Violence in the community Within the UK from April 2009 to March 2010 just fewer than 402,000 people fell victim to violent crime. Violence in the community can have a lasting impact on the health and wellbeing of those who fall victim to it, with the nature of offences ranging from minor to fatal. Over the twelve month period August 2009 to July 2010 Wiltshire county 46
The aim in the future is to make Wiltshire the safest county in the country. At present Wiltshire has the third lowest rate when looking at ‘violent crime’ compared to its 15 most similar areas in England and Wales and the sixth lowest rate when compared against the category of ‘most serious violent crime’.
Community safety Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Anti-Social Behaviour and criminal damage
One of the main causes of their repeated offending is attributed to the instability of their lives, the lack of prospects and inadequate support and guidance. For this reason they remain caught up in a vicious circle of offending and reoffending. With this in mind, it is essential to realise that long-term community stability relies to a large extent on correct management of the most troubled offenders.
ASB often acts as an early warning sign of rising levels of crime. It is a problem of particular concern in Wiltshire because of the visible nature of its impact within communities. It is frequently the sign of community non-cohesion and more serious social problems, from which further crime types will develop if left untreated (HMIC: Closing the Gap. 2006). Without a focussed strategy, ASB can easily perpetuate into ongoing cycles of criminality.
The management programme must include a joined-up effort between agencies in order to fulfil the most fundamental needs of these persistent lawbreakers and thereby bring to an end their habit of offending.
Between August 2009 and July 2010 there were 4,888 criminal incidents of ASB and criminal damage in Wiltshire. More significantly, there were in total nearly 12,000 incidents reported to the police, which ranged from low level public order offences through to criminal damage. Within Wiltshire certain areas like Salisbury, Trowbridge and Chippenham have had consistently high levels of ASB and criminal damage reported. Salisbury has suffered 684 crime incidents, Trowbridge 694 and Chippenham 631 which equates to 41.1% of all ASB and criminal damage crimes in the county.
There are 34 Prolific and Priority Offenders (PPOs) residing in Wiltshire who are closely managed by the Prolific and Priority Offenders team. There is currently a review underway in Wiltshire to introduce integrated offender management (IOM). This would enable a greater number of consistent offenders to be supported by a specialist multiagency team.
Drugs and alcohol Research shows strong associations between drug use and certain types of crime, especially acquisitive crimes such as burglary of dwellings and shoplifting. Home Office research undertaken with arrestees shows that a third of acquisitive crime could be linked to drug use. Around three-quarters of crack and heroin users claim to be committing crime to feed their habit. 75% of
Integrated offender management Repeat offenders are a problem to the community; for such a relatively small number of people, they contribute statistically to a high percentage of crime. In fact statistics show that 10% of active offenders are responsible for 50% of all crime (Wiltshire Probation Trust: Your Hidden Champions. 2010). 47
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persistent offenders have misused drugs and arrestees who use heroin and/or cocaine commit almost 10 times as many offences as arrestees who do not use drugs11.
2009-2010 of the total number of crimes recorded, 3,416 occurred in Salisbury (15.2%), 2,760 in Chippenham (12.3%) and 3,055 in Trowbridge (13.6%). The inclusion of hotspot areas as a priority issue aligns well with the original proposal that suggested the partnership agencies should be joined up through commonality of geographical interests.
However, the type of substance misuse which results in greatest harm to the largest numbers of people is alcohol misuse. National research shows that although identifying the precise role of alcohol in offending is difficult, it has been estimated that 40% of violent crime, 78% of assaults and 88% of criminal damage cases are committed while the offender is under the influence of alcohol12.
The main aspect of the joined up approach to addressing the hotspot areas of Salisbury, Chippenham and Trowbridge is to create further involvement from the general public about matters that may affect their community. A recent example is suggested in the government’s Big Society13 project, which is described as ‘putting more power and opportunity into people’s hands’.
Over the course of the past year (August 2009–July 2010) there have been 1,151 alcohol related crimes recorded by Wiltshire Police and 22.7% of these resulted in a violent offence. The importance of tackling the irresponsible sale and consumption of alcohol is key to reducing the high levels of associated crime within the night time economy. This would then help the people of Wiltshire feel safer inside and outside their homes at night.
Road safety In Wiltshire, in 2009, there were 194 fatal and/or seriously injured people in road traffic collisions, and a further 52 recorded by the Highways Agency (it must be noted that some collisions recorded by the Highways Agency will include trunk roads that run through Swindon). In addition to the trauma and sometimes life-changing injuries caused to those involved there is a significant cost impact. In Wiltshire during 2009 the total cost has been estimated at approximately £107.2 million.
Hotspot areas Currently three large populated areas, Salisbury, Chippenham and Trowbridge, absorb intensive resources from the police and other agencies, but continue to account for far higher levels of crime and disorder than any other area. In
11webarchive.national.gov.uk/20100413151441/http://crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/toolkits/dr0203.htm 12webarchive.national.gov.uk/20100413151441/http://crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/toolkits/ar020101.
htm 13http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/media/407789/building-big-society.pdf
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Community safety Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
order to save lives, increase community safety and confidence, as well as making marked savings in costs.
Road safety also features as a priority for the Transport Alliance. It is essential that efforts within the County are combined in
Evidence table: Wiltshire Prolific and Priority Offenders (PPOs)
South West
34
England
742
10,771
June 2010 Violence with injury
2,222
32,725
111
2,427
Serious acquisitive crime
3,032
67,155
Assault with less serious injury
2,110
32,415
71
18,751
2
3043
47
11,644
111
33,430
1:88
2:09 §
Most serious violent crime
Domestic burglary Robbery Theft of motor vehicle Theft from motor vehicle Average journey time per mile on A roads (min:sec) 2009-2010
2:40 §
KSI casualty rate per 100m veh-km 2007-9
4.8
5.7
Pedestrian all casualty rate per 100,000 population 2007-9
24
48
KSI rate per 100,000 population‡
57
48
NI 168 proportion of principal roads where maintenance should be considered 2008-2009
6
4§
Source: iQuanta
Further information: Community Safety Partnership website: www.wiltshire.gov.uk/wiltshireassembly/ wiltshirecommunitysafetypartnershipupdate.htm Wiltshire Alcohol Strategy 2009-2011: www.wiltshire.gov.uk/wilts-alcohol-strategy-imp-plan-2009-11.pdf Wiltshire Violence Reduction Strategy 2009-2011: www.wiltshire.gov.uk/violent-crime-reduction-strategy.pdf Wiltshire Anti-Social Reduction Strategy 2009-2011: www.wiltshire.gov.uk/anti-social-behaviour-strategy-for-wilts.pdf 49
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Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
50
Housing Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Housing
• building and maintaining inclusive, safer and stronger communities where people want to live
Introduction:
• enabling people’s housing needs to be met by providing greater choice and promoting independence and inclusion
Housing makes an important contribution to social and environmental objectives such as reducing health inequalities, improving educational attainment and community cohesion. Good housing contributes to a healthy community, better education and an improved economy and is linked to health and wellbeing, impacting on both physical and mental health.
• working together to ensure that all aspects of housing and its management make a positive contribution to minimising environmental impact • increasing the supply of well designed market and affordable housing that is appropriate for the town or village within which it is determined.
Our overall aim is to build a better future with safe and secure homes in strong and vibrant communities where everyone should have a good quality of life and access to opportunities, choices and high quality services which are sustainable, accessible, and meet people’s needs now and in the future.
Background information: There are three main Registered Social Landlords (RSL) in Wiltshire: Selwood Housing Association, Westlea Housing Association and Sarsen Housing Association. All were formed through Large-Scale Voluntary Transfer with three of the former district councils. Social housing in the former Salisbury district is mainly provided by Wiltshire Council.
To achieve our aim we have started to develop a Wiltshire-wide housing strategy and we have agreed on four main priorities:
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Key issues:
In February 2009, prior to Wiltshire becoming a unitary authority, the four existing district councils introduced a new social housing allocation system, Homes4Wiltshire. This is a choice-based lettings system that allows people to have a greater say in where they want to live and in which type of property. There were 11,808 households on the housing register in August 2010.
• Delivery of affordable housing • Prevention of homelessness • Rural housing • Making best use of existing stock • Fuel poverty • Military accommodation
Delivery of affordable housing
With a continuing increase in the total number of households on our housing register and limited new, affordable housing being developed each year, it will be a difficult challenge to meet the increasing need for affordable housing options without making best use of existing stock.
In Wiltshire, the average house costs approximately 7.3 times the annual wage of its working residents which is higher than the region (7.2:1) or the nation (6.3:1). Wiltshire also has one of the biggest gaps between affordability for residents and affordability for workplace employees. Despite the recession, the delivery of affordable housing in Wiltshire remained very high, but with the 2010 announcement of reduced government funding this will become increasingly challenging and call for new ways of delivering affordable housing.
Table 2: Affordable housing delivery 2007-2008 – 2009-2010 2007-2008
2008-2009
Number of affordable homes delivered
636
583
Affordable housing*
24%
31%
2,161
2,048
Total number of affordable housing lets Source: Wiltshire Council
*Out of the net additional homes provided
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Housing Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Prevention of homelessness
which will focus on understanding the needs of our rural communities so that we can maximise our opportunities to deliver rural housing. It has recently been agreed that the partnership will jointly fund a rural research officer post to carry out a programme of housing needs surveys starting in February 2011.
The total number of homeless acceptances for Wiltshire is far higher than for any of our neighbouring local authorities. However, in terms of a rate Wiltshire had 2.2 homelessness acceptances per 1,000 households which is on par with Swindon, South Gloucestershire and Mendip; lower than South Somerset, but higher than Bath and North East Somerset or Cotswold.
Making best use of existing stock The housing tenure profile for Wiltshire is similar to that nationally with owner occupation at 70%, private rented accommodation at 14% and social housing 16%1. It is known that 27.7% of owner occupied accommodation in Wiltshire is non-decent and 41.7% of the private rented stock* is non-decent. This means that the properties are either in a poor state of repair, have a serious hazard, or have very old facilities that are more than 25–30 years old. Overall , 30% of Wiltshre stock is non-decent, this compares to a national figure of 35.8% overall and it is likely to be because we have a higher percentage of housing stock built post 1965 than that found nationally.
In Wiltshire from 2007-2008 to 2009-2010 the three main causes of homelessness were and still are: • being asked to leave by parents • termination of assured shorthold tenancies • relationship breakdown. These are consistent with the national and South West homeless figures (see evidence tables). We have been extremely successful in the prevention of homelessness and reducing the number of households in temporary accommodation. At the end of quarter 4 (March 2010), we had 150 households placed in temporary accommodation compared to a target for 2010 of 242.
We estimate that the cost of bringing these properties up to a decent homes standard would be £6,600 per property. We have a very low number of Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMO), the estimate is 480, or 0.3% compared to the national figure of 2%.2 It has also been estimated that we have 4,300 (2.5%) empty homes
Rural housing Due to having insufficient rural needs data to help identify housing requirements in our rural villages we have set up a rural investment programme
1 Private sector house condition survey 2009; final report, Wiltshire Council and Capital Project Consultancy
Ltd., April 2010 2 ibid 3 ibid
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The council’s Private Sector House Condition Survey (2009) showed that mains gas was present in just 68% of privately owned dwellings compared with 83% nationally. If we assume that these figures are representative of all housing, it means that Wiltshire has almost twice the number of dwellings without access to mains gas (32%) compared with the national average (17%). This is significant because carbon emissions from oil are much higher than the equivalent emissions from gas and oil is more expensive to heat a home.
in Wiltshire of which 2,090 are estimated to be long-term vacant: six months or more.3 This compares to a national figure of 4.1%. As it is a priority to make best use of existing stock it is important that everything possible is done to try and bring these properties in Wiltshire back into use to help meet our increasing need for affordable housing.
Fuel poverty Wiltshire’s private sector stock has a higher than national average percentage of households in receipt of benefits at 21% compared to 17% nationally. This is likely to indicate affordability issues and also has an impact on those households identified to be in fuel poverty. These are identified as households who spend more than 10% of their net household income on heating and hot water. Not only do dwellings where fuel poverty exists represent dwellings with poor energy efficiency, they are, by definition, occupied by residents with low incomes, least likely to be able to afford improvements. We estimate 20,400 dwellings (12.1%) to be in fuel poverty, which represents a substantial number of households and presents issues in terms of both energy efficiency and occupier health.
Military accommodation There are currently 17,800 military personnel based in the Wiltshire camps. The majority live in the county in purpose-built accommodation, either shared blocks, or with their families. In total, around 6.6% (30,000) of the total Wiltshire population are military personnel or their dependents. As shown in the Demographics and Census section the significant military presence in Wiltshire is changing. Current accommodation, particularly for families, is insufficient; therefore housing from the civilian market is being acquired at present to meet the needs on a temporary basis and further research has commenced to understand the needs of ex-military personnel better.
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Evidence tables: Housing statistics
Wiltshire
Age of stock – built post 1965
South West
England
52.8%
‡
40.4%
Total number of HMOs
0.3%
‡
2%
Total number of empty homes
2.5%
‡
4.1%
21%
‡
17%
12.1%
‡
13.2%
Households on benefit in private rented sector * Households in fuel poverty Causes of homelessness
Wiltshire
South West
England
Parental evictions
23%
24%
23%
Termination of Assured Shorthold Tenancy (AST)
34%
21%
14%
Friends/other relatives eviction
9%
10%
14%
Violent relationship breakdown
7%
10%
13%
Non violent relationship breakdown
12%
7%
7%
Other
15%
28%
29%
Total number of Acceptances households
Acceptances per 1,000 households
Homelessness acceptance rates (2008-2009) Swindon
80,000
171
2.1
105,000
229
2.2
BANES
74,000
127
1.7
South Somerset
68,000
179
2.6
Mendip
46,000
102
2.2
Cotswold
36,000
23
0.6
Wiltshire
186,000
409
2.2
South Gloucestershire
Housing tenure
Owner Private rented occupation
Wiltshire Household types
70%
14%
Wiltshire
Social housing 16% England
Couples with no dependent children
48.0%
‡
39.2%
One person households
27.9%
‡
25.7%
1.8%
‡
4.7%
Lone parents with dependent child
The Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) was ntroduced in 2004 when eight new countries (accession states or A8) joined the European Union. In the past years both job vacancies and A8 migration have been high in Wiltshire: from May 2004 to June 2010 there were 6,570 WRS approved applications*. * There is no deregistration information; the data only gives inflows and is therefore not cumulative. It is not possible to use it to make assumptions about how long people stay in the area, or how many are working in an area at any one time.
‡ 2 Data is not available for the South West area. *
3 The privately rented stock figure includes housing stock that belong to the MoD
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Further information: Wiltshire Housing Reference Partnership – Terms of Reference Homelessness Strategy Emerging Housing Strategy (research and emerging priorities) Wiltshire Stock Condition Survey
56
Transport Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Transport
• support economic recovery • benefit all members of society
Introduction:
• reduce its adverse impacts.
Modern transport has transformed our society and economy. It has enabled us to take advantage of a wide range of dispersed opportunities and to keep in contact with family and friends. Advances in road haulage and distribution methods have stimulated economic growth by helping to provide us with unparalleled consumer choices, a 24-hour society and just-in-time deliveries.
In essence, we need to develop a sustainable transport system which supports and benefits our economy, society and environment.
Background information: Wiltshire has high car ownership levels with some 40% of households in Wiltshire having access to two or more cars in 2001 compared to the English average of 29.5%. Over 60% of all journeys to work are by car, with public transport accounting for fewer than 10% of such journeys. A number of key trends are emerging in the county:
At the same time, however, our reliance on the private car and the lorry has led to busier and more congested roads. This, in turn, has resulted in fewer people keeping healthy through walking and cycling, increased concerns with regard to noise and other community aspects, accessibility issues for people who rely on public transport, and environmental impacts such as air pollution and the threat of climate change.
• increasing levels of wealth • hidden levels of poverty with a more dispersed incidence throughout the rural parts of the county • continuing growth in out-commuting to surrounding towns and cities
In view of the above, our transport system needs to:
• the future expansion and role of Swindon 57
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Economic growth is being compromised by an increasingly unreliable and congested transport network
• continuing military restructuring • population growth, particularly focussed on Chippenham, Trowbridge and Salisbury
The Eddington Transport Study14 (December 2006) confirms: “There is clear evidence that a comprehensive and high-performing transport system is an important enabler of sustained economic prosperity” and that “Transport networks support the productivity and success of urban areas and their catchments”. This latter point is particularly important given the level of housing and employment growth that is proposed in Wiltshire as part of the emerging Local Development Framework (LDF).
• the need for healthier lifestyles • increased levels of car ownership and use leading to more traffic congestion • dispersed lifestyles and a weakening of links to local communities • the threat of climate change.
Key issues: • Economic growth is being compromised by an increasingly unreliable and congested transport network • Emissions by transport of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are having a detrimental effect on climate change
A key issue is therefore the provision of essential infrastructure to support economic recovery: • investment in infrastructure can support economic recovery and is essential to achieve sustained economic growth
• There are still too many deaths and serious injuries on Wiltshire’s roads, although this varies across the county
• the return of economic growth will quickly expose the inadequacy of existing infrastructure
• A lack of transport to services, facilities and employment results in a degree of inequality for some Wiltshire residents
• the value for money of investment is evidenced by the high benefit to cost ratios of transport and other schemes
• The built and natural environment in some areas is being adversely affected by traffic
• sharp reductions in investment destroy the capacity to deliver, in both the public and private sector, making it slower and more expensive to increase investment later.
14 www.parliament.uk/briefingpapers/commons/lib/research/briefings/snbt-04208.pdf
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which pledges us to address the causes of climate change systematically and to prepare for its impacts.
There remains a significant backlog of structural maintenance required on the county’s roads, bridges, street lighting and related infrastructure.
There are still too many deaths and serious injuries on Wiltshire’s roads, although this varies across the county
Emissions by transport of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are having a detrimental effect on climate change. Transport is a major contributor to global climate change; carbon dioxide emissions from transport increased nationally by 98% between 1971 and 200115. Nationally, transport’s share of total emissions is predicted to increase from 24% in 2006 to 30% in 202216.
As is the case in most rural counties, Wiltshire has a lower accident rate at 3.8 collisions per 1,000 vehicles licensed than the English average at 5.6. However, this varies across the county with 99.1 road injuries and deaths per 100,000 residents in Salisbury, and only 52.5 in west Wiltshire. (See graph on page 60)
In the South West, transport accounts for 28% of CO2 with road transport dominating that total. Wiltshire Council has signed up to the Nottingham Declaration
Overall some 50% of collisions and 85% of pedestrian and cycle collisions occur in the urban areas of Wiltshire.
Chart 4: Carbon emissions 2007, Wiltshire.
Kilo tonnes (Kt) CO2
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0 Industry and Commercial
Domestic
Road Transport
LULUCF*
Sector
* Land use, land use change and forestry Source: Wiltshire Council/Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) 15 Regional Strategy for the South West Environment 16 Committee on Climate Change
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Average annual casualties per 100,000 residents (2004-2006)
Chart 5: Road casualties 2004-2006, Wiltshire 120
100
80
60
40
20
0 North Wiltshire
West Wiltshire
Kennet
Salisbury
Wiltshire
Source: Wiltshire Council/Department for Transport UK
A lack of transport to services, facilities and employment results in a degree of inequality for some Wiltshire residents
in the number of settlements with an hourly or better service since 2001. Around 15% to 20% of people in the UK have some form of personal disability. An ageing population and high levels of disability have implications for transport services. The national concessionary bus pass scheme has improved the quality of life for many people, but is expensive to fund.
People in rural areas often have greater difficulty accessing essential services and facilities and are highly dependent on the use of the private car. This is partly due to the distance they need to travel for services and facilities, but also the dispersed population means that public transport is less viable for private companies. Therefore network coverage and frequency of service is often less than in urban areas, and there is a much greater reliance on services subsidised by the council. The number of settlements with at least a daily public transport service has increased in recent years, although there has been a decline
Wiltshire allows free parking for people who have blue badges. There has been a long, upward trend in blue badges issued, with the number of badges on issue in the UK more than trebling since 198717. In 2008, 4.8% of the South West population was a blue badge holder. The government plans to extend eligibility, for example to include people with mental
17 www.dft.gov.uk/adobepdf/162469/221412/221535/224237/408114/publictranssup08.pdf
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North Wessex Downs; and part of the Cotswolds. South Wiltshire includes a small part of the New Forest and there are more than 250 Sites of Special Scientific Interest, including Salisbury Plain, Savernake Forest and Fyfield Down. Wiltshire also contains 6,940 hectares of designated Green Belt land primarily in west Wiltshire, but also in north Wiltshire.
impairment, and to make changes to the scheme so that it is easier for local authorities to prevent fraud.
The built and natural environment in some areas is being adversely affected by traffic Wiltshire’s landscape character makes a considerable contribution to local distinctiveness and is one of national importance. East and south Wiltshire are particularly constrained by national and local designations. The Stonehenge and Avebury World Heritage Site presents a specific challenge in the county where the integrity of the sites needs to be protected.
Improving the often poor quality of the built environment, especially in Wiltshire’s larger historic towns, is acknowledged to be a significant factor in helping economic recovery and growth. A focus for attention is the need to plan and deliver improvements which achieve positive transport and public realm outcomes.
The county contains three Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty: Cranborne Chase and West Wiltshire Downs;
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Evidence table: Wiltshire Average journey time per mile on A roads (min:sec) 2009-2010
South West
1:88
England
2:09 §
2:40 §
KSI casualty rate per 100m veh-km 2007-9
4.8
5.7
Pedestrian all casualty rate per 100,000 population 2007-9
24
48
KSI rate per 100,000 population‡
57
48
NI 168 proportion of principal roads where maintenance should be considered 20082009
6
4§
5§
NI 169 proportion of non-principal roads where maintenance should be considered 2008-2009
6
8§
8§
NI 176 Access to employment 2008-2009
78.4%
80.6% §
82.3% §
NI 178 Proportion of bus services running on time
85%
79% §
80% §
27
41
Rail journeys boarding + alighting per head of population (annual 2008-2009)
12 †
11 †
Proportion of travel to school by car (5-15 age group) 2008-2009
32%
30%
31%
2.2
1.8
1.7¶
Bus journeys originating per head of population (annual 2008-2009)
Carbon dioxide emissions per capita from road transport (tonnes)
§
These figures are a simple mean of the results for individual local authorities in the specified region ‡ Source:
reported KSI's (killed and or seriously injured) 2007-9
†
The rail and bus journey indicators are not directly comparable due to the significant and different effect upon the figures of cross-boundary journeys ¶
UK figure
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Further information: Department for Transport Traffic Statistics www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/roadstraffic/traffic/rtstatistics/ Road Casualties in Great Britain – DfT Annual Reports: www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/accidents/casualtiesgbar/ Wiltshire Local Transport Plan www.wiltshire.gov.uk/parkingtransportandstreets/roadandtransportplans/ transportplans.htm DfT – Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/ sustainable/carbonreduction/low-carbon.pdf Supporting Sustainable Economic Recovery – ADEPT18 www.cssnet.org.uk/documents/ADEPTPositionStatement_000.pdf
18 Association of Directors of Environment, Economy, Planning and Transport
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64
Environment Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Environment
• There are 1,550 county wildlife sites. • 55% of the UK’s remaining chalk grassland is in Wiltshire with Salisbury Plain alone being the largest chalk grassland site in northern Europe.
Introduction: Protecting, maintaining and enhancing the quality of our environment is critically important. Scientific evidence demonstrates that climate change is a reality and it is imperative to act now. Tackling the causes and managing the effects of climate change is one of the greatest challenges that we face as a society. This is recognised within Wiltshire by the Wiltshire Assembly which identifies tackling climate change as one of its top three priorities.
• 10% of the remaining ‘unimproved’ grassland in the UK is in Wiltshire. • Much of the farmland is high grade, productive, agricultural land. • Nearly half of the county is designated as Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB). • Wiltshire has a relatively low population density.
Background information:
Healthy, fully functioning ecosystems provide us with a wide range of goods and services that are essential for our health and wellbeing and ultimately life itself.
Although Wiltshire’s natural environment is our greatest asset, it faces many challenges: in short we are living beyond our environmental limits.
• The quality of the natural environment is Wiltshire’s greatest asset.
Data indicates comparatively high levels of consumption in Wiltshire. Usually measured in terms of a per capita ‘Ecological Footprint’, this is the area of land needed to meet the annual consumption of an individual. The
• 15% of the total land area is wildliferich habitat. • Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) cover 29,000 hectares. 65
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accepted global sustainable level is 1.9 global hectares (gha)/person. The current global average is about 2.4 gha/person. The average figure for people living in Wiltshire is over 5.45 gha/person, higher than averages for the South West or UK.
land management changes, pollution, population pressure, invasive species and the fragmentation of habitats leading to ‘islands’. Habitat losses in England over the past 60 years have been dramatic, with the loss of 50% of ancient lowland woodland (see map V in Appendix E), 150,000 miles of hedgerows, 98% of traditional hay meadows, 80% of chalk downland and 80% of wetland areas.
Maintaining high levels is possible only because our levels of consumption are being subsidised by lower levels of consumption in poorer parts of the world and by the depletion of the earth’s natural capital. In the long term this will lead to shortages in key resources such as crude oil and phosphates. Locally, we need to increase our food and energy security by encouraging greater production of food for local markets, valuing and conserving our natural resources, and local generation of energy through using renewable sources.
The significance of Wiltshire’s valued landscapes is acknowledged in the designation of 44% of the county as AONB, which includes parts of the Cotswolds; Cranborne Chase and West Wiltshire Downs; and North Wessex Downs AONBs. See map VI in Appendix E. Regular contact with nature and easy access to high quality ‘green space’ (green infrastructure) is now widely accepted as crucial to public health and wellbeing. Despite being a generally rural county, Wiltshire has become increasingly urbanised with over half of the population living in areas regarded as urban centres. For significant numbers of people there is a loss of regular contact with nature. Over 60,000 people in Wiltshire suffer a mental illness. In general there are diminished levels of physical activity and increasing levels of obesity.
Key issues: • Biodiversity and the natural environment • Climate change • Waste • Water • Carbon emissions
Biodiversity and the natural environment
There is a vital need to make Wiltshire’s natural environment more resilient by protecting and enhancing ecosystem functions, enhancing biodiversity, creating wildlife corridors to reduce habitat fragmentation, and enabling Wiltshire’s
Compared to many parts of England, Wiltshire remains rich in wildlife and has many internationally important sites and key populations of rare or endangered species (see appendices). However, our bio-diversity continues to decline through 66
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communities to become involved in local nature conservation activity.
Extreme events • More hot days • Fewer frosty days
Climate change
• More dry spells
Wiltshire’s Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) provides a snapshot of the impact of some of the most significant weather events in the past decade in Wiltshire on public services, giving an indication of likely future impact. For example:
• Increase in temperature of warmest day • Increase in precipitation on wettest day
Waste The council collected 216,542 tonnes of household waste in 2009-2010. The majority of commercial premises are serviced by private contractors, although the council collects some commercial waste: 15,000 tonnes in 2009-2010. An accurate total picture of waste production in the county is therefore not currently available, but estimates suggest that it could be as much as 600,000 tonnes. Table 3 sets out what happens to the waste that the council collects.
• excess rainfall and flooding in July 2007 resulted in significant highway and infrastructure disruption in all areas across the county • high temperatures and heat waves in August 2003 and again in July 2006 placed vulnerable groups at significant risk. Statistics indicate an increase in excess seasonal deaths as a result of high temperatures during heat waves. Evidence also shows that heat wave events lead to an increase in noise and air pollution, as well as an increase in opportunistic crime.
A key objective for the authority is to reduce the amount of waste sent to landfill and maximise recycling rates. Alongside a 7.4% reduction in the amount of waste collected since its peak in 2004-2005, there has been a drive to increase recycling services and establish alternatives to disposing of waste in landfills.
The long term climate change predictions suggest the following changes to Wiltshire’s climate: Long-term/seasonal changes • Increase in annual average temperature • Hotter, drier summers • Milder, wetter winters
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Table 3: Wiltshire Council’s waste performance 2005/06 Landfill Energy from waste Recycling and composting
2009/10 66%
47%
0%
14%
34%
39%
Source: Wiltshire Council
this is being used as a tool to inform strategic and local planning decisions when allocating land for development or determining applications. Map VII in Appendix E shows areas identified as flood plain (zone 3b), high probability (zone 3a – greater than 1% chance of flooding annually) and medium probability of flooding (zone 2 – between 0.1% and 1% chance of flooding annually). There are effective emergency planning procedures in place to ensure services continue if there are floods.
National Indicator (NI) 191 measures the level of residual waste produced per household and can be used to compare local authorities throughout the country. Wiltshire’s figure for 2009-2010 was 647.6kg per household. The latest available comparative data is for 20082009 and shows that Wiltshire produced slightly less residual waste per household than the national average, but more than the South West (see evidence table).
Water Scientific evidence shows that climate change is likely to intensify the water cycle, reinforcing existing patterns of water scarcity and abundance. In the South West, we are set for wetter winters and drier summers, which will have significant implications for our water infrastructure.
Using comparisons between supply and demand forecasts, Wessex Water has identified that there is the potential for deficits in water supply to occur in Wiltshire as a result of decreases in abstractions to protect sensitive watercourses such as the Hampshire Avon and as a result of population growth. Development of an integrated water supply grid is now in the initial stages of development and is expected to provide part of a long-term solution to the challenge of climate change, alongside leakage reduction and water efficiency.
A requirement of the Flood and Water Management Act is that the council prepares a Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (PFRA) identifying areas at risk from surface and groundwater flooding. The council will also be preparing flood hazard maps to highlight areas of risk from flooding, and direct involvement in alleviation schemes. The council has already prepared a county-wide Strategic Flood Risk Assessment (SFRA) and
The impacts of climate change are likely to significantly affect waste water treatment infrastructure as well. Wessex 68
Environment Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Water expects to see more frequent damage to pipe work as soils dry out and shrink. The sewerage network is likely to come under greater pressure from more intense rainfall, which could lead to sewer flooding and spills from combined sewer overflows. More prolonged periods of dry weather could mean that treated effluent from sewage treatment works returned to rivers constitutes a higher proportion of the flow in these rivers and streams, whilst hotter weather could lead to an increase in complaints from residents concerning odour from sewage works.
(see map 1 below). Wiltshire’s chalk streams are internationally important for biodiversity, but currently suffer from a number of interacting factors that are having negative impacts.
Carbon emissions Between 2005 and 2008, CO2 emissions reduced by 5.6% nationally. In the South West, emissions went down by 8.1%. In Wiltshire while emissions also fell they were still higher than the South West and England averages Wiltshire continues to lag behind the rest of the country in cutting its carbon emissions, as shown in chart 6. Please refer to chart 4 in the transport section for a breakdown of emissions by source.
Nitrogen enrichment of surface waters and groundwater is already regarded as a problem in a number of areas
Map 1: Sources at risk from exceeding nitrate limits
Key Sources at risk from exceeding nitrate limits Water supply and sewerage services area Sewerage services only Water supply services only
Source: This map is from Wessex Water’s Water Resources Management Plan and should not be reproduced without their permission
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Chart 6: Comparison of per capita emissions, 2005-2008 (Ni 186 data set)
9.0 8.0 7.0
Tonnes CO2
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2005
Wiltshire
2006
2007
South West
2008
2005
2006
2007
2008
UK
Source: Department for Energy and Climate Change biomass. If it is assumed that the installed renewable systems in Wiltshire operate at 100% capacity for half of the year, they would generate just 0.3% of Wiltshire’s energy needs (using 2007 data). This is compared to the national target of 15% of energy to come from renewable sources by 2020.
Wiltshire has one of the lowest installed renewable energy capacities in the South West region. In 2010, Wiltshire had just 10.4 MW of installed renewable electricity and 2.3 MW of installed renewable heat. Most of the renewable electricity potential comes from the utilisation of landfill gas, while most of the heat comes from
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Evidence table: Wiltshire Population density per hectare (2009 mid-year estimates)
South West
England
1.4
2.2
4.0
Total land area which is wildliferich habitat
15%19
Not available
Not available
Land designated as SSSI
8.3%�
7%�20
8.3% 21�
Land designated as AONB
44%
30% 22
15.7% 23
Local sites in positive management (NI 197)
54%
Not available
Not available
2.4%
1.2%
663.60kgs
626kgs
669kgs
Recycling rate (NI 192) for 2008-2009 (source as above)
40.51%
42.30%
37.60%
Waste to Landfill (NI 193) for 2008-2009 (source as above)
56.40%
56.40%
50.30%
Installed Renewable Electricity Capacity
10.4MW
Average 24.5MW
2.3MW
Average 9MW�
14,419.7 GWh 37% commercial and industrial, 28% domestic
Wiltshire consumed 11.3% of energy consumed in the
35% transport
South West
2005 - 8.5(t)
2005 - 7.4(t)
2005 - 7.2(t)
2006 - 8.5(t)
2006 - 7.3(t)
2006 - 7.1(t)
2007 - 8.3(t)
2007 - 7.0(t)
2007 - 6.9(t)
2008 - 8.0(t)
2008 - 6.8(t)
2008 - 6.8(t)
Population engaged in crop and animal production, hunting and related services (IDBR 2009 – ONS South West) Residual waste per capita (NI 191) for 2008-2009�
West Wiltshire 1.7% Kennet 4.8% Salisbury 3.0% North Wiltshire 3.1%
Installed Renewable Heat Capacity 2007 Energy Consumption in Wiltshire 24
Per capita CO2 emissions in Wiltshire (NI 186)�25
Wiltshire consumes 0.6% of UK energy
19 Wiltshire and Swindon Biological Record Centre 20 State of the Natural Environment in the South West. Natural England 21 State of the Natural Environment. Natural England, 2008 22 Source: www.defra.gov.uk/evidence/statistics/environment/wastats/archive/mwb200809.xls (as at
27.08.2010) 23 Source REgen SW Survey of Renewable Energy in the South West 2010 24 Source DECC energy statistics by local authority area 25 Source DECC
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Further information: Wiltshire Council Energy Change and Opportunity Strategy Wiltshire Local Climate Impacts Profile Wiltshire Municipal Waste Strategy Wiltshire Strategic Flood Risk Assessment Wiltshire Biodiversity Action Plan Water Resources Management Plans (Wessex Water, Thames Water etc)
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Resilient communities
understanding about the main inequalities in the county and how these impact on people’s lives, along with identifying ways that we can work together to reduce such inequalities. Finally, we are committed to promoting community resilience through wider participation in local decision-making and community action, as well as greater involvement in the arts.
Introduction: The Resilient Communities Partnership (RCP) is dedicated to building the conditions that will assist communities to become more resilient and sustainable. This is considered to be important because the scale of many of the challenges we face today is not one that local and central government can address alone. What is required is that citizens are encouraged and supported to become more proactive in addressing their own needs and those of the communities in which they live. This focus has now become the agenda for the coalition government and is described as the ‘Big Society’.
RCP set its priorities through a series of strategic planning workshops in late 2009. These workshops included key infrastructure Voluntary and Community Sector (VCS) organisations and public sector officers with expertise in VCS, area governance, the arts and equalities. The four strategic aims were informed by a variety of evidence sources as described below.
For the RCP our overall aim is to work in partnership to deliver more resilient communities. Key to our work is building a shared vision and innovative ways of joint working with voluntary, charitable and social enterprise partners in Wiltshire. Also of importance is raising
Background information: Resilient communities are those where we find strong protective social networks and relationships26. Essentially, it is where people look out for one another and help
26‘Capability and Resilience: Beating the Odds’ Economic and Social Research Council, 2006
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of the VCS in Wiltshire. Wiltshire’s score in respect of a ‘thriving third sector’ compares well to the national average. National Indicator 7, measured through the National Survey of Third Sector Organisations, September – December 2008 asked: “Taking everything into account, how do the statutory bodies in your local area influence your organisation’s success?” and 18.2% of third sector organisations in Wiltshire stated this influence was either positive or very positive, compared to a national average score of 16.2%.
when needed. Most often this means people getting involved in their local communities through voluntary activity. Creating opportunities for community participation is, therefore, a key priority for us. What’s more, we recognise the critical role of the voluntary and community sector in building resilience. We know that some communities are better equipped than others to improve their local areas. Poverty, disadvantage and inequalities can significantly hinder the ability of Wiltshire’s communities to work together to tackle issues. When this occurs we need to target support for building resilience where it is most needed. Tackling inequalities to provide for more inclusive communities is one of our goals.
• Inequalities and disadvantage
Although Wiltshire’s NI 7 measure compares favourably with the national benchmark figure, this target still features in the LAA because it is the existence of social networks, and the services the VCS sector delivers, which create resilience. The RCP’s Resilient Communities Partnership Strategic Plan 2010-2013 will help us to improve our support to VCS, and our survey result.
• Local involvement in decision-making
Inequalities and disadvantage
• Participation in arts and culture
The inequalities which exist in some of our communities represent our biggest challenge to building resilience. Our vision is for stronger and more inclusive communities where we see diversity celebrated, inclusion promoted and disadvantage challenged. Key national research by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett set out in their book ‘The Spirit Level’ makes out a powerful case that more equal societies function better in almost all respects. The following information gives a flavour of the evidence
Key issues: • Strong and vibrant Voluntary and Community Sector
Strong and vibrant Voluntary and Community Sector The VCS has a key role to play in developing resilient communities. People’s involvement in community or voluntary activities helps to create strong, supportive social networks. The ‘National Survey of Third Sector Organisations’ provides an overall assessment of the strength and vibrancy
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Health
we have that inequalities exist in Wiltshire:
The correlation between deprivation and poor health is well documented. In Type 2 diabetes, which is preventable in two thirds of people who have it, life expectancy is reduced by up to 10 years. It is estimated that around 90% of people with diabetes have type 2 diabetes, as opposed to type 1 diabetes, which is less preventable. Diabetes is much more common in some ethnic minority groups and lower socio-economic groups.
House prices Wiltshire is a popular area in which to live and its close proximity to several larger urban employment areas outside its boundary means that many people out-commute to better-paid jobs. This shows up in the difference between higher residence-based incomes, and somewhat lower Wiltshire work-based incomes. This same pattern feeds through into the affordability of house prices. Wiltshire has a higher house price to income ratio (7.3:1) than either the region (7.2:1) or the nation (6.3:1).
The rate of alcohol-related hospital admissions is higher in the south of the county, and there is a strong correlation with levels of deprivation, with almost twice the level of admissions in the more deprived areas in the county.
Wiltshire, along with Dorset and Bath and North East Somerset, has the biggest gap in the South West between the affordability of houses for resident and workplace employees. Latest figures show that due to the shortage of affordable housing in the county, 11,808 people are on the housing register in August 2010. The median full-time annual earnings in 2008 for workers resident in Wiltshire was ÂŁ25,719, whereas for those working in Wiltshire workplaces it was ÂŁ24,133.
Poverty The greatest concentrations of deprivation are in the towns, with three local areas in Wiltshire, two in Trowbridge and one in Salisbury, being in the most deprived 20% of such areas nationally. There is scattered deprivation across the whole rural area. Government Office South West (GOSW) has produced a briefing which shows Wiltshire to have 11,345 children living in poverty (2007 Indices of Deprivation) which represents approximately 11.2% of children. This looks a comparatively good figure, but it masks the fact that out of Wiltshire’s 281 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs), 65 have 15% of children living in poverty, 33 have more than 20% and in 10 areas this is more than 30%.
Life expectancy There is a difference in life expectancy between the least and most deprived wards within Wiltshire of 5.2 years. This is low compared to other areas but, nevertheless, represents clear inequalities in health outcomes within the local population.
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hotspots including wards in Trowbridge, Chippenham and Salisbury.
Educational attainment 47% of pupils did not achieve five GCSEs A*-C, including mathematics and English in 2008. Results varied widely between secondary schools, from 0%, that is all pupils achieved these five good passes, down to a school where 75% of pupils did not achieve this level of attainment.
Local involvement in decisionmaking In resilient communities, residents have avenues open to them to express their opinions in a productive and positive manner. Results from the DCLG Place Survey 2008 showed that 31.7% of people in Wiltshire felt that they could influence decisions in their locality, compared to 29% nationally (NI 4). Although Wiltshire’s results compare favourably with the national average, nevertheless, supporting local decisionmaking still features in the Resilient Communities Partnership Strategic Plan 2010-2013.
Access to services As a sparsely populated, rural county, access to services is a major issue especially for those living in the rural areas who do not have access to a car. The national Indices of Deprivation 2007 (DCLG) shows that the most prevalent category of deprivation in Wiltshire relates to ‘Barriers to Housing and Services’ and 13% of the county’s LSOAs are within the top 10% most deprived of such areas nationally, including a quarter of the former Kennet district’s LSOAs and a fifth of those in the former Salisbury district.
Participation in arts and culture Arts and culture make a significant contribution to the development of more resilient communities. A vibrant arts and culture community provides numerous benefits: enhances quality of life; creates jobs; acts as a catalyst for revitalising neighbourhoods and community development; builds opportunities for youth and education; and helps generate civic and community pride. In terms of return on investment in arts organisations, local research has shown that there is an £11 return for every £1 of public money invested (through grants) (David Pratley Associates, Wiltshire Arts Promoters: Analysis of Local Area Block Expenditure, May 2009).
Financial exclusion It is evident that financial exclusion is prominent in the major urban settlements and it is also apparent in more remote rural areas. There is also a likely correlation between areas suffering from high levels of financial exclusion and high densities of social housing stock. The intelligence that the Treasury commissioned from Experian was based on a mapping exercise which examined the scale and depth of financial exclusion across the UK. The picture for Wiltshire showed the prevalence of financially excluded households with
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Evidence table: Wiltshire
England
NI 7: Environment for a thriving third sector
18.2%
16.2%
NI 4: People who feel they can influence decisions in their locality
31.7%
29%
Average house price 2010
186,817
Return on public investment of ÂŁ1 in the arts
-
ÂŁ11
Young people engaged in the arts
30,000
Sources: Wiltshire Joint Strategic Needs Assessment 2009, National Survey of Third Sector Organisations, September-December 2008), DCLG Place Survey 2008, Wiltshire Strategic Economic Assessment December 2007-2008.
Further information: National Survey of the Third Sector 2008 www.nstso.com/ Wiltshire Strategic Economic Assessment 2007/2008 www.intelligencenetwork.org.uk/ Place Survey (Department of Communities and Local Government) 2008 www.intelligencenetwork.org.uk/ Wiltshire JSNA 2009 www.wiltshirejsna.org/
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Equality and diversity
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the gaps forms the basis of identifying local priorities and key outcomes.
Introduction:
The council recognises that a robust equalities evidence base will help inform the Wiltshire Community Plan and provide clear priorities under the theme of ‘People, Places and Promises’. It will help the council to: gain an understanding of what creates inequalities and disadvantage in Wiltshire; comply with statutory obligations (Equality Act 2010); achieve consistent and appropriate service planning and delivery; and attain high levels of satisfaction amongst service users.
The council and its partners are the principal organisations which influence the quality of life for people in Wiltshire. They have the main responsibility for: • making services accessible to all • treating people fairly. The Wiltshire Assembly has identified tackling inequalities and disadvantage as a main priority area to create stronger and more resilient communities. This has been supported by the Resilient Communities Partnership (RCP).
“An equal society protects and promotes equal, real freedom and opportunity to live in the way people value and would choose, so that everyone can flourish.
Work on tackling inequalities and disadvantage calls for better understanding of communities. The Equality Framework for Local Government (EFLG) which was introduced in 2009 contains a new performance area - ‘knowing your communities and equality mapping’ – which directs local authorities to use local and national data to understand the profile of communities and to measure inequalities.
An equal society recognises people’s different needs, situations and goals, and removes the barriers that limit what people can do and can be.” Fairness and Freedom: The Final Report of the Equalities Review 2007
Background:
Equality mapping is the term used for profiling communities, including the extent of inequality and disadvantage. It emphasises the importance of understanding difference in the context of other major issues such as health, education, community safety, access to work and identifying where the equality gaps are for different groups. Measuring
The Equality Act 2010 harmonises and replaces previous legislation, such as the Race Relations Act 1976 and the Disability Discrimination Act 1995. The Equality Act 2010 defines discrimination in terms of nine “protected characteristics”: age; disability; gender reassignment; marriage and civil partnership; pregnancy and maternity; race; religion or belief; sex;
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The Equalities Review 2007 set out a framework for measuring the equality outcomes or ‘domains’ of different groups. These are as follows: life; health and longevity; physical security; legal security; education and learning; standard of living; productive and valued activities; individual, family and social life; identity, expression and self-respect; and participation, influence and voice. The equalities mapping exercise will be conducted within the framework of these domains.
and sexual orientation. It introduces new, common, basic definitions of direct and indirect discrimination which will apply to the protected characteristics. The Equality Act 2010 also creates a new public sector duty, requiring public authorities, when making strategic decisions, “to have due regard to the desirability of exercising them in a way that is designed to reduce the inequalities of outcome which result from socioeconomic disadvantage”. “The Equality Act 2010 is intended to provide a new cross-cutting legislative framework to protect the rights of individuals and advance equality of opportunity for all; to update, simplify and strengthen the previous legislation; and to deliver a simple, modern and accessible framework of discrimination law which protects individuals from unfair treatment and promotes a fair and more equal society.”
Although it has been recognised, at national, regional and local level, that there is a need for a robust evidence base in order to inform policies aimed at tackling inequality, there are concerns that ongoing developments in the UK statistical evidence base still fall short of meeting all data requirements. It is, therefore, anticipated that the equalities mapping exercise will also serve to ensure effective use of existing data, enabling gaps in understanding communities to be identified and, where appropriate, new research and information commissioned to build a full picture so that this disadvantage can be effectively tackled.
Government Equalities Office
Key issues Currently, the corporate research team in the council’s public health and wellbeing department is undertaking an equalities mapping research exercise which will provide an up-to-date statistical baseline of existing inequalities in Wiltshire. The key equalities groups will be those cited in the Equality Act 2010, as outlined above. There will be an additional layer of information to help identify inequalities of outcome which result from socioeconomic disadvantage.
This mapping exercise will provide a cross-cutting evidence base to complement the information provided by other key documents such as the Wiltshire JSNA, the Children and Young People in Wiltshire Needs Assessment and the Wiltshire Strategic Economic Assessment.
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A final copy of the equalities mapping report will be available for download from the Wiltshire Intelligence Network by December 2010: see further information.
“The data available on inequalities are inadequate in many ways, limiting people’s ability to understand problems and their causes, set priorities and track progress. And even where data do exist, they are not consistently used well, or published in a way which makes sense.” Fairness and Freedom: The Final Report of the Equalities Review 2007
Further information: Current sources of equalities policy and research data can be accessed via the following web links: www.wiltshirejsna.org/ www.intelligencenetwork.org.uk/ www.swo.org.uk/resources/equality-data-tool/ www.wiltshire.nhs.uk/Public/Publications-policies/Equality-and-diversity.htm www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=14238
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Community areas
Community area JSAs In 2011 community area JSAs will be produced, based upon the framework established in this document. Each thematic partnership will be represented and indicators incorporated highlighting significant issues for each theme along with demographic and deprivation information.
Background: Within Wiltshire there are 20 local administrative areas called community areas. These have been devised based on research into local communities and are normally centred around a local town. They were revised in April 2009 when Wiltshire Council was formed as a unitary authority; all local public services have pledged to take these areas into account when planning and delivering local services.
Wootton Bassett and Cricklade Area Board
Malmesbury Area Board
In each of the 20 community areas there is a community area partnership which is a key local body that acts as the co‑ordinated voice of the community. It has representation from town and parish councils, local businesses, the voluntary sector, local people and community leaders. The partnerships carry out consultations, debate local issues and prioritise community needs in community area plans.
Chippenham Area Board
Calne Area Board
Marlborough Area Board
Corsham Area Board
Bradford on Avon Area Board
Melksham Area Board
Pewsey Area Board Devizes Area Board
Trowbridge Area Board Tidworth Area Board
Westbury Area Board
Warminster Area Board
Mere
In addition there are 18 community area boards which are formally constituted arms of Wiltshire Council with delegated authority to act as a local executive of the council. The boards consist of elected council members and representatives from health, police, fire and other organisations. All boards, apart from all those in south west Wiltshire, are co-terminus with area partnerships.
Tisbury
Amesbury Area Board
Wilton
South West Wiltshire Area Board
Salisbury Area Board
Southern Wiltshire Area Board
Community area JSAs will supersede two sets of existing documents: community area briefing notes and community area JSNAs which currently provide a range of data and information at local level.
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Community area briefing notes www.intelligencenetwork.org.uk/localarea-profiles/ These briefing notes contain key statistical data and socio-economic indicators, as well as the perceptions of the local community. Data tables or charts are presented for population; ethnicity; vehicle ownership; crime; social inclusion and poverty; benefit claimants; education; house prices; the economy and public consultation. Data is shown for each community area and compared with Wiltshire figures and, where possible, with regional and national data.
Community area JSNAs http://bit.ly/wiltsjsna-ca-pdf 造 JSNAs contain information on health and wellbeing indicators and wider determinants of health. Data tables or charts presented include population; deprivation; mortality; life expectancy; teenage pregnancy; traffic collisions; hospital admissions; healthy lifestyles; self-reported health; domestic violence and deaths occurring at home. These documents were used as the basis for workshops at area board meetings which were often held alongside health fairs at which a range of health information and evaluations were made available to the public.
造 Short url redirects to http://www.wiltshirejsna.org/PDF%20Versions%20to%20Download.aspx
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Glossary and abbreviations ABH ABI ADEPT
Actual Bodily Harm Annual Business Enquiry Association of Directors of Environment, Economy, Planning and Transport AONB Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty ASB Anti-Social Behaviour ASHE Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings AST Assured Shorthold Tenancy BANES Bath And North East Somerset BAP Biodiversity Action Plan BMI Body Mass Index Broad age groups Children (0–15), Working age (16-64M/59F), Older people (65M/60F and over) CO2 Carbon Dioxide CVD Cardiovascular Disease CWS County Wildlife Sites DASA Defence Analytical Services Agency DCLG Department of Communities and Local Government DCSF Department for Children Schools and Families DECC Department of Energy and Climate Change DEFRA Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs DfT Department for Transport EFLG The Equality Framework for Local Government EU European Union GBH Grievous Bodily Harm GCSE General Certificate of Secondary Education GDHI Gross Domestic Household Income gha global hectare – an equivalent land area required to support consumption based on global average productivity GOSW Government Office South West GP General Practitioner GVA Gross Value Added HIV Human Immune deficiency Virus HMO Houses in Multiple Occupation HQ Headquarters IDBR Inter Departmental Business Register ICT Information and Communication Technology IMD Index of Multiple Deprivation JSA Joint Strategic Assessment (for Wiltshire) JSNA Joint Strategic Needs Assessment – in 2009 this document was the over-arching needs assessment for Wiltshire. In 2010 it is the needs assessment for the health and wellbeing partnership kg kilograms
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KS KS2 KS4 KSI kWh LAA LCLIP LDF LNR LSOA LULUCF MW MYE NEET NHS IC NHS NI ONS PFRA PPO RAF RCP RegenSW SAC SEN SFRA SHMA SNPP SPA SPSG SPTA SSSI SWPHO t TDP UA UK VAT VCS WAP WSEP WPSB
Key Stage Key Stage 2–11 year old pupils Key Stage 4–16 year old pupils Killed or Serious Injury Kilowatt hours Local Area Agreement Local Climate Impacts Profile Local Development Framework Local Nature Reserves Lower Super Output Area Land use, land use change and forestry Megawatts Mid Year Estimate (Young People) Not in Employment, Education or Training National Health Service Information Centre National Health Service National Indicator (DCLG) Office for National Statistics Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment Prolific and Priority Offender Royal Airforce Resilient Communities Partnership The South West Renewable Energy Agency Special Areas of Conservation Special Educational Needs Strategic Flood Risk Assessment Strategic Housing Market Assessment Sub-National Population Projections Special Protection Areas Salisbury Plain Super Garrison Salisbury Plain Training Area Sites of Special Scientific Interest South West Public Health Observatory tonnes Thematic Delivery Partnerships Unitary Authority United Kingdom Value Added Tax Voluntary and Community Sector Working Age Population Wiltshire Strategic Economic Partnership Wiltshire Public Services Board
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Appendices
The scores for the employment and income domains, and the income deprived children and income deprived older people sub-domains, are real proportions of the population in each LSOA, since they are derived from nonoverlapping counts of people in families in receipt of means-tested benefits; or of people excluded from the labour market through unemployment, disability or ill health.
Appendix A: Indices of Deprivation Deprivation is an important determinant of health and wellbeing for individuals and communities. Higher levels of deprivation are consistently associated with poorer health outcomes across a range of measures, representing a major cause of inequalities in health.
There are 32,482 LSOAs in England. They are ranked in order of their Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) so the most deprived LSOA is 1 and the least deprived is 32,482. Therefore, when Warminster – east has an overall index of 15,413, it means that it is the 15,413th most deprived LSOA in England.
The government has produced a set of data which aids the assessment of levels of deprivation across England. The indices have been created using LSOA geography. LSOAs are smaller areas than wards and are, therefore, more likely to highlight smaller ‘pockets’ of deprivation. It is acknowledged that it is people who are deprived and that indices of deprivation are not confined to ‘deprived areas’. Nevertheless, the indices provide a consistently applied measure of living conditions that enable meaningful comparisons to be made and to inform the prioritisation and targeting of resources.
Multiple deprivation in Wiltshire Of the 149 county and unitary authorities in England, Wiltshire ranked as the 140th most deprived in the 2007 IMD. Wiltshire is ranked among the least deprived 50% in all domain summaries. It is ranked 91st in the scale of income deprivation and 93rd in the scale of employment deprivation. It is in the least deprived 10% in all four other summaries.
The indices are measures of deprivation for every LSOA and local authority in England. They combine a number of indicators that cover a range of domains into a single deprivation score for each area. The component domains are income; employment; health; education, skills and training; barriers to housing and services; crime and living environment.
There are 281 LSOAs in Wiltshire and according to the 2007 IMD, only three of these LSOAs are within the most deprived 20% nationally, the same number as in 2004. They are home to slightly more than 5,000 people. Two of
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other parts of England. However, the variations within Wiltshire are major, with some of the most affluent areas in the county being located right next to the very deprived, those in the bottom 20% of the national score. Evidence shows that the level of relative difference in affluence is more important then the level of absolute deprivation itself for inequalities and its consequences in society. In addition, rural deprivation is difficult to qualify; given the higher than average proportion of the population living in rural communities in Wiltshire, it is likely that small pockets of rural deprivation will exist that are not highlighted by the IMD.
the three areas are in Trowbridge and the other is in Salisbury. There are no areas in Wiltshire within the most deprived 10% nationally. This was also the case in 2004. The most deprived Wiltshire LSOA is in John of Gaunt ward, Trowbridge. It is ranked 5,033rd in England and is, thus, outside the most deprived 15% nationally. The 10 areas of greatest deprivation in the county are identified in table I. All 10 of these areas are in the 30% most deprived in England. The most prevalent form of deprivation in Wiltshire relates to barriers to housing and services. About 13% of the county’s LSOAs are within the most deprived 10% in England in this domain, the majority in the east or the south of the county.
Map I and Map II show deprivation as measured by the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 by LSOA. The first map shows which quintile (20%) each LSOA lies in if every LSOA in England were ranked and divided into quintiles. The second map shows which quintile (20%) each LSOA lies in if every LSOA in Wiltshire were ranked and divided into quintiles.
Only two of the other six domains include Wiltshire LSOAs within the most deprived 10% in England, most notably the education, skills and training domain, where this is true of about 3% of the county’s LSOAs. These levels of deprivation might not seem significant when compared with
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Table I: Most deprived LSOAs in Wiltshire Town
Area
Rank in England
Rank in Wiltshire
Trowbridge
John of Gaunt – Studley Green
5,033
1
Salisbury
St Martin – central
5,113
2
Trowbridge
Adcroft – Seymour
5,885
3
Salisbury
Bemerton – south
7,406
4
Salisbury
Bemerton – west
7,689
5
Chippenham
Queens – east
9,150
6
Westbury
Ham – west
9,220
7
Trowbridge
Drynham – Lower Studley
9,581
8
Calne
Abberd – south
9,725
9
Melksham
North – north east
9,830
10
Number of LSOAs in England: 32,482. Number of LSOAs in Wiltshire: 281. Source: Department of Communities and Local Government, index of multiple deprivation 2007
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Map I: Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 (England quintiles)
Source: Department of Communities and Local Government This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office Š Crown Copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown Copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. (100049050) 2010.
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Map II: Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 (Wiltshire quintiles)
Source: Department of Communities and Local Government This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office Š Crown Copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown Copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. (100049050) 2010.
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2010
Appendix B: Population data Table II: Mid-year 2008 ONS LSOA (experimental) estimates by community areas in Wiltshire Community area name
Proportion Proportion Proportion Population Total of of of density (per population population population aged 0-15 aged 1659/64
population aged 60+/65+
Land Area (hectares)
hectare)
Amesbury
32,000
20
63
17
1.02
31,340
Bradford on Avon
17,050
17
55
27
2.89
5,900
Calne
22,210
21
60
18
1.67
13,290
Chippenham
44,360
21
62
17
2.80
15,840
Corsham
19,140
20
59
21
2.51
7,630
Devizes
29,950
19
58
23
1.39
21,580
Southern Wiltshire
21,080
18
55
27
0.96
21,900
Malmesbury
18,610
20
59
21
0.76
24,460
Marlborough
17,720
20
57
23
0.63
28,030
Melksham
27,890
19
58
23
2.83
9,840
5,550
16
53
31
0.55
10,100
Pewsey
13,600
19
58
23
0.51
26,760
Salisbury
41,160
19
59
22
21.45
1,920
Tidworth
16,830
23
66
11
0.92
18,260
7,290
18
53
29
0.47
15,590
Trowbridge
40,560
20
60
19
9.77
4,150
Warminster
24,330
18
58
24
0.87
27,970
Westbury
18,360
21
59
20
2.51
7,310
8,710
17
56
27
0.50
17,440
29,040
19
61
20
1.89
15,330
Mere
Tisbury
Wilton Wootton Bassett and Cricklade
The data for the individual community areas derive from the ONS’ experimental LSOA data for mid-year 2008. The size of each new community area in hectares was calculated by the Wiltshire Council research team using the Mapinfo programme. The population data for Wiltshire, the South West region and the UK are ONS 2008 midyear estimates.
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Map III: Community area population density
Source: Mid-year 2008 ONS LSOA (experimental) estimates This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office Š Crown Copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown Copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. (100049050) 2010.
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Table III: Total population at Census 2001 and mid-year 2009, total population increase and percentage change 2001 to 2009 2001 England South West Wiltshire
2009
Increase (no.) 2001-2009
Change (%) 2001-2009
49,138,800
51,809,700
2,670,900
5.4
4,928,400
5,231,200
302,800
6.1
433,000
456,100
23,100
5.3
Source: Census 2001 and Office for National Statistics, 2009 mid-year population estimates
Table IV: Total projected population at mid-year 2009 and 2026, total projected population increase and percentage change 2009 to 2026 2009
2026
England
51,817,100
58,334,100
6,517,000
12.6
South West
5,252,600
6,023,100
770,500
14.7
456,700
511,500
54,800
12.0
Wiltshire
Increase (no.) 2009-2026
Change (%) 2009-2026
Source: Office for National Statistics 2008 sub-national population projections
Table V: Total projected population at mid-year 2009 and 2026 by broad age group, including projected total population percentage change 2009-2026 Total Population Age 0-15
2009
2026
Change (%) 2009-2026
83,000
84,400
1.7
16-64M/59F
274,900
277,200
0.8
65+M/60+F
98,700
149,800
51.8
Source: Office for National Statistics 2008 sub-national population projections
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Table VI: Total population aged 85+ in Wiltshire 2009 and 2026 by sex, including percentage change 2009-2026 Males Age
2009
85+
Change (%) 2009-2026
2026 3,700
8,800
137.8
Females Age
2009
85+
Change (%) 2009-2026
2026 8,100
13,700
69.1
Total population Age
2009
85+
Change (%) 2009-2026
2026 11,800
22,500
90.7
Source: Office for National Statistics 2008 sub-national populations projections
Table VII: Changes in WAP* (Working-Age [16-64M/59F**] Population) 2009-2026 Â
2009 WAP
England South West Wiltshire
2026
% of total population
WAP
% of total population
32,106
62
33,835
59.5
3,132
59.6
3,312
56.8
269
58.9
271
55.4
* Working Age Population (WAP) in thousands ** Male retirement age 65 years, Female retirement age 60 years Note: Wiltshire – lowest % WAP Source: Office for National Statistics 2008 sub-national population projections
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Table VIII: Changes in RAP* (Retirement-Age [65+M/60+F**] Population) 2009-2026 Â
2009 RAP
England South West
2026
% of total population
RAP
% of total population
10,011
19.3
13,707
23.5
1,197
22.8
1,685
28.0
99
21.6
150
29.3
Wiltshire
* Retirement Age Population (RAP) in thousands ** Male retirement age 65 years, Female retirement age 60 years Note: Wiltshire – Highest % RAP in 2026 Source: Office for National Statistics 2008 sub national population projections
Table IX: Military personnel estimated and projected numbers 2006 to 2016 for Wiltshire 2006 15,179
2007
2008
2009
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Without re-use of Lyneham 16,372 17,096 17,252 17,820 16,853 16,621 15,963 15,703 15,451 With potential military re-use of Lyneham 15,963 18,203 17,951
Source: Envisioning the Future, Wiltshire Council
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2016 15,437 17,937
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Appendix C: Military sites Map IV: Military sites in Wiltshire
Source: Military presence and economic significance in the South West region March 2009 report This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office Š Crown Copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown Copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. (100049050) 2010.
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Appendix D: Mosaic Introduction In a climate of reduced funding and increased customer expectation, it has never been more important to make evidence-based decisions. Wiltshire communities are not homogenous and residents expect public services to be responsive to their individual needs, one size simply does not fit all. Delivering services in response to the individual’s needs allows for more effective resource targeting, increased efficiencies and value for money. It improves engagement with residents and increases service adoption and campaign penetration. In order to provide greater insight into the Wiltshire population, Wiltshire Council, NHS Wiltshire and Wiltshire Police purchased a joint license for Experian’s Mosaic Public Sector.
Image reproduced with kind permission from Experian
Background Mosaic UK is widely used in the private sector as it provides a deep understanding of customers and site locations. This understanding can be used to inform: • product development • site location • development of targeted, well-positioned marketing and advertising strategies.
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The Mosaic Public Sector classification tool has been developed specifically for use in the public sector and is built from over 440 data elements. It segments the UK population into 69 types contained within 15 groups (see table X for more details). Mosaic Public Sector allows us to paint a detailed picture of the most likely characteristics of residents at household level and is extremely useful when used in conjunction with existing research, or as a starting point where no data is currently available. Index figures are given for each of the 69 types for over 85 topics (see chart I for example of index questions). When available, data can be profiled and mapped at either household or postcode level using Mosaic, providing valuable insight into service-user type, group and location.
Mosaic – current and potential use Using Mosaic Public Sector to understand local area populations can assist strategic development in a number of areas including:
Targeting resources, through the prioritisation of services in relation to customer demand Example: Wiltshire Council is looking at producing a service map to provide a complete picture of service demand by group and geography.
Transformational service delivery based on how residents wish to access services and engage with the public sector Example: Wiltshire Council is developing leisure campuses in key locations across the county. Mosaic can help ensure that the new campuses are located in areas easily accessible by the types of customers likely to use the facilities. Mosaic can also help to identify other services that customers may use, which could be located on leisure campuses, for example out-of-hours GP service.
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Example: Group F: couples with young children in comfortable modern housing: preferred communication channels
100 = UK average Image reproduced with kind permission from Experian
Improved payments and income generation Example: Wiltshire Council will use Mosaic as part of a research project examining cash payments across the council. Research results will be used to inform or transform cash-handling policy.
Development of effective, measurable and targeted communications based on an understanding of channel availability and preference Example: NHS Wiltshire is using Mosaic to select target groups for social marketing campaigns, including smoking, smoking-related long-term conditions and alcohol consumption. Mosaic will inform the selection of marketing channels and materials, leading to more cost-effective campaigns through improved targeting. Example: Using Mosaic to identify types least likely to recycle and developing targeted communications to change attitudes and behaviours.
Creating sustainable communities Example: Wiltshire Council will profile community areas using Mosaic. Mosaic could also be used to analyse area board attendance and inform the development of new strategies for increasing turnout, or alternative methods of engagement.
Achievement of health gains and reductions in health inequalities Example: NHS Wiltshire is using Mosaic as a standard analysis dimension throughout public health work, for example, to look at breast screening uptake and breastfeeding. Example: NHS Wiltshire will use Mosaic to analyse dispensing for patients to develop improved methods of meeting their pharmaceutical requirements.
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Development of safe and secure communities through better targeting of resources to improve public safety and service response Example: Wiltshire Police is using Mosaic to inform ‘Problem Profiles’ (crime type analysis reports) by identifying groups and types associated with offenders and victims. Wiltshire Police is also using Mosaic to identify the most appropriate communication channels for media campaigns, community engagement and crime prevention advice. Example: Wiltshire Police and Wiltshire Council are looking to undertake a joint project focusing on ASB.
The Wiltshire Mosaic This document is currently being prepared; when completed it will classify every household in Wiltshire by type and group. It will provide an overview of group characteristics, maps and a selection of key index figures. It will focus on the County of Wiltshire, excluding Swindon, and highlight particular types of interest to Wiltshire such as ‘F25 personnel reliant on the Ministry of Defence for public services’.
Image reproduced with kind permission from Experian
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Sample of information to be included in the Wiltshire Mosaic Group A: Residents of isolated rural communities Character: Residents in these communities still value a traditional country ‘way of life’, characterised by a strong community spirit and sense of responsibility towards neighbours. A high proportion of this population is married or, if single, widowed, with modest levels of disposable income, but also benefiting from high levels of capital.
Group A: Industry
100 = UK average Image reproduced with kind permission from Experian
Use of services: Many communities have developed a rich variety of voluntary associations, with many residents attending church each week. Demand for social services is limited and often involves dealing with problems related to physical access of the elderly or disabled to services they need. Health levels are typical of the national average. Although crime levels tend to be very low, residents often complain that they get very little protection and support from the police. Educational attainment tends to be higher than average, although children at primary school do less well than their peers. This could be attributed to a lack of physical access to a wide circle of friends and facilities. There is still a legacy of poor quality housing among the privately rented stock and this has a negative impact on residents’ health. 101
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Residents rely on leisure facilities provided in local market towns and use them when they visit towns for work or shopping.
Access: Physical access to public and commercial services is a serious issue for most residents. Children and the elderly suffer from a lack of public transport. Residents prefer to deal with service providers face-to-face, but due to practical reasons are often reliant on the Internet and telephone. They are careful not to become overdrawn and typically make payments using direct debits.
Green behaviour: Generally sympathetic to the green message, but circumstances make it difficult for this group to be as environmentally friendly as they would like. Public transport is limited and the general reliance on cars contributes to high CO2 emissions. Many properties are detached and are not new-builds and so are often inadequately insulated. However, this group tends to be careful and so CO2 emissions related to property are in line with the typical UK household.
Group A: Green aware classification
100 = UK average Image reproduced with kind permission from Experian
Communication: This group is receptive to the telephone, interactive TV and magazines; they tend not to be receptive to national papers.
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Table X: Mosaic Public Sector – groups and types Group Description
A
Residents of rural isolated communities
B
Residents of small and mid-sized towns with strong local roots
C
Wealthy people living in the most sought after neighbourhoods
D
Successful professionals living in suburban or semi-rural homes
E
Middle income families living in moderate suburban areas
F
Couples with young children in comfortable modern housing
G
Young well-educated city dwellers
H
Couples and young singles in small modern starter homes
I
J K
Lower income workers in urban terraces in often diverse areas Owner occupiers in older-style housing in exindustrial estates Residents with sufficient incomes in right-to-buy social housing
L
Active elderly people living in pleasant retirement locations
M
Elderly people reliant on state support
N
Young people renting flats in high density social housing
O
Families in low-rise social housing with high levels of benefit need
Type Description A01 A02 A03 A04 B05 B06 B07 B08 C09 C10 C11 C12 D13 D14 D15 D16 E17 E18 E19 E20 E21 F22 F23 F24 F25 G26 G27 G28 G29 G30 G31 G32 G33 G34 H35 H36 H37
Rural families with high incomes, often from city jobs Retirees electing to settle in environmentally attractive localities Remote communities, poor access to public and commercial services Villagers with few well paid alternatives to agricultural employment Better off empty nesters in low density estates on town fringes Self employed trades people living in smaller communities Empty nester owner occupiers making little use of public services Mixed communities, many single people in the centres of small towns Successful older business leaders living in sought after suburbs Wealthy families in substantial houses with little community involvement Creative professionals seeking involvement in local communities Residents in smart city centre flats, who make little use of public services Higher income older champions of village communities Older people living in large houses in mature suburbs Well off commuters living in spacious houses in semi-rural settings Higher income families concerned with education and careers Comfortably off suburban families weakly tied to their local community Industrial workers living comfortably in owner occupied semis Self reliant older families in suburban semis in industrial towns Upwardly mobile South Asian families living in inter war suburbs Middle aged families living in less fashionable inter war suburban semis Busy executives in town houses in dormitory settlements Early middle aged parents likely to be involved in their children’s education Young parents, new to their neighbourhood, keen to put down roots Personnel reliant on the Ministry of Defence for public services Well educated singles living in purpose built flats City dwellers owning house in older neighbourhoods Singles and sharers occupying converted Victorian houses Young professional families settling in better quality older terraces Diverse communities of well educated singles living in smart, small flats Owners in smart purpose built flats in prestige locations, many newly built Students and other transient singles in multi-let houses Transient singles, poorly supported by family and neighbours Students involved in college and university communities Childless new owner occupiers in cramped new houses Young singles and sharers renting small purpose built flats Young owners and rented developments of mixed tenure
H38 I39 I40 I41 I42 I43 I44 J45 J46
People living in brand new residential developments Young owners and private renters in inner city terraces Multi-ethnic communities in newer suburbs away from the inner city Renters of older terraces in ethnically diverse communities South Asian communities experiencing social deprivation Older town centre terraces with transient, single populations Low income families occupying poor quality older terraces Low income communities reliant on low skill industrial jobs Residents in blue collar communities revitalised by commuters
J47 K48 K49 K50 K51 L52 L53 L54 L55 M56 M57 M58 M59 N60 N61 N62 N63 N64 N65 N66 O67 O68
Comfortably off industrial workers owning their own homes Middle aged couples and families in right-to-buy homes Low income older couples long established in former council estates Older families in low value housing in traditional industrial areas Often indebted families living in low rise estates Communities of wealthy older people living in large seaside houses Residents in retirement, second home and tourist communities Retired people of modest means commonly living in seaside bungalows Capable older people leasing / owning flats in purpose built blocks Older people living on social housing estates with limited budgets Old people in flats subsisting on welfare payments Less mobile older people requiring a degree of care People living in social accommodation designed for older people Tenants in social housing flats on estates at risk of serious social problems Childless tenants in social housing flats with modest social needs Young renters in flats with a cosmopolitan mix Multicultural tenants renting flats in areas of social housing Diverse home sharers renting small flats in areas of social housing Young singles in multi-ethnic communities, many in high rise flats Childless, low income tenants in high rise flats Older tenants in low rise social housing estates where jobs are scarce Families with varied structures living in low rise social housing estates
O69
Vulnerable young parents needing substantial state support
103
2010
Appendix D Group A
2010
Joint Strategic Assessment Anti-social forEat Wiltshire behaviour more
than 5 portions of fruit and HH income vegatables Completed Property type 225 130 125 517
got a lot worse in last 2 years 41
Policing, biggest problem rubbish or litter 211
I can influence decisions affecting my local Work at area home 133 223
Green classificati on - doing Cigarette their best smoker 381 70
5-6 alcoholic drinks in last week 129
Website visits governme nt 117
Chart I: Sample of Group A characteristics compared to the national average Website visits – government 5-6 alcoholic drinks in last week Cigarette smoker Green classification – doing their best
Work at home
I can influence decisions affecting my local area Policing, biggest problem – rubbish or litter Anti-social behaviour got a lot worse in last 2 years
518
Completed education aged 19
1708
Property type – 2nd home
Eat more than 5 portions of fruit and vegatables HH income £100,000+
0
50
100
150
200
250
100 = UK average Source: Wiltshire Mosaic
104
300
350
400
450
500
Appendix E Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Appendix E: Environmental maps Map V: Current fragmented distribution of ancient woodland in Wiltshire
Source: Wiltshire and Swindon Biological Records Centre This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey Material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office Š Crown Copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown Copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. (100049050) 2010.
105
2010
Appendix E
2010
Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Map VI: Recognised sites of nature conservation importance and coverage of Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty
Source: Wiltshire and Swindon Biological Records Centre This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey Material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office Š Crown Copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown Copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. (100049050) 2010.
106
Appendix E Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Map VII: Overview of Minerals and Waste Allocations and Fluvial Flood Risk
Source: Scott Wilson Consultants This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office Š Crown Copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown Copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. (100049050) 2010.
107
2010
Appendix E
2010
Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
Table XI: Wiltshire per Capita CO2 emissions (tonnes) 2005 – 2008 Local authority area
Former Kennet
Former North Wiltshire
Former Salisbury
Former West Wiltshire
Wiltshire total
Year
Full data set (tonnes)
NI 186 data set (tonnes)
2005
9.4
8.5
2006
9.4
8.4
2007
9.3
8.4
2008
9.2
8.2
2005
10.7
7.9
2006
10.5
7.9
2007
10.2
7.7
2008
9.9
7.5
2005
8.7
8.5
2006
8.8
8.5
2007
8.4
8.2
2008
8.4
8.2
2005
13.1
9.2
2006
14.5
9
2007
14.7
8.9
2008
13.2
8.4
2005
10.6
8.5
2006
11
8.5
2007
10.9
8.3
2008
10.3
8
Source: Department for Energy and Climate Change
108
Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
109
2010
2010
Joint Strategic Assessment for Wiltshire
110