NOV 2021
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Has the Zillow ship sunk? Why we've never had faith in the "Zestimate."
Local Real Estate Market Statistics
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ZILLOW BAILS ON IBUYING!
HAS THEIR SHIP
SUNK?
Zillow loses faith in it's own pricing algorithm.
Zillow bailed on iBuying because it can’t effectively forecast home values. Their error rate was too high to continue to invest. This beautifully illustrates why "Zestimate" is a made-up word and not a value you should invest in. This is exactly why you need a current, real life market analysis provided by a professional who has toured the interior of your home. Condition. Location. Amenities. Curb Appeal. All of it matters. In Zillow's own words via an article from Iman News Company, founder Rich Barton added in the report that “We’ve determined the unpredictability in forecasting home prices far exceeds what we anticipated and continuing to scale Zillow Offers would result in too much earnings and balance-sheet volatility. “While we built and learned a tremendous amount operating Zillow Offers, it served only a small portion of our customers,” Barton continued. “Our core business and brand are strong, and we remain committed to creating an integrated and digital real estate transaction that solves the pain points of buyers and sellers while serving a wider audience.” During an earnings call with investors, Barton further explained that in the three and a half years that Zillow has been operating Zillow Offers, the company has experienced a “series of extraordinary events” that include a pandemic, supply and demand imbalances, and labor shortages, among other things. And he ultimately concluded that Zillow has been unable to accurately price homes for future sales.
If Zillow doesn't trust it, should you?
“Our observed error rate has been far more volatile than we thought possible,” Barton said during the call. He later added that, “fundamentally we have been unable to predict future pricing of homes to a level of accuracy that makes this a safe business to be in.” Barton went on to explain that Zillow’s iBuying business only made sense at scale, but right now it’s “still at a scale that’s small compared to what it needs to be.” Recent events forced the company to ponder what that business might look like while growing larger, and the conclusion was ultimately that it was “beyond the tolerance level that we are comfortable with moving forward.” The other issue we’ve see with this type of corporate player in the real estate market is the temptation of market manipulation. Example: if a company buys, 20 $360,000 homes for $375,000 each, all within a mile of one another. Then buys home number 21 for 425,000 at 50,000 over asking. Then turns around to sell home 1 through 20 at their newly created value of 425,000 each. That earns a cool 50,000 per home times 20 equals 1 million dollars. Purely by manipulating the market and effectively cutting out the average American home buyer. The thousands of homes being gobbled up by big corporations is a danger to us all as homeowners. Homeowners interested in the "Easy Button" of selling for cash to an investor should consider local investors who clearly intend to keep the home in the real estate market now or in the near future. Call your REALTOR® and they can give you an accurate up to date value of your home. And they may know a local investor or two.
MUCH LIKE PEOPLE, EVERY MARKET IS UNIQUE. SOME MARKETS HAVE VIEWS, SOME LARGE YARDS. FROM HOMES BUILT AT THE TURN OF THE CENTURY TO NEW CONSTRUCTION, EACH AREA HAS ITS OWN FEATURES AND TYPES OF HOMES.
Real Estate is Local
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