GRAHAM HOLTER Editorial

The recent increase in indie numbers was a surprise. Maybe there are more to come

Over the past 12 months, the number of specialist independent wine shops has risen by more than people might have imagined.

We now count 1,033 individual branches, an increase of 38 on the figure we recorded this time last year. And that’s taking into account all the shops that have disappeared from the market – of which there have been numerous examples, sad to say, in these turbulent economic times.

Yet despite soaring energy bills, uncomfortably high interest rates and all the endless costly bureaucracy that our leaders see fit to dump on merchants, the independent wine trade is looking pretty robust, at least in terms of its numbers.

In The Wine Merchant we try to keep pace with things as best we can in our Comings & Goings section. Glancing back over a year of back issues, we’ve reported on 32 newcomers to the market, and eight examples of existing businesses expanding.

Five of those 32 new shops opened in London. The rest are spread across the UK: we reported on new ventures in Scotland, Wales, Cumbria, Lancashire, Manchester, Cheshire, Yorkshire, Humberside, Nottinghamshire, Gloucestershire, Bristol, Suffolk, Sussex and Kent.

Should we expect similar growth in the coming 12 months? Perhaps our reader survey can provide some clues. Twelve per cent of businesses say they are considering opening new branches this year. Given that there are 787 companies in the independent sector, that could mean another 94 shops. Subtract the 3% who are considering closing branches –which would equate to about 24 stores disappearing – and we’re still left with 70 new wine shops.

But let’s also assume that this bullishness will largely evaporate as reality bites and that 80% of those openings don’t actually happen. That still suggests that 14 shops might open.

What we have no way of knowing, of course, is how many merchants will call time on their shops this year, or how many new arrivals we will see. So any attempt to predict how many specialist independent wine shops there will be in April 2024 must be based almost entirely on guesswork.

Common sense, instinct and gut feel suggest that another annual net increase of 38 seems improbable. But then we would almost certainly have said the same thing a year ago.

Editor and Publisher: Graham Holter graham@winemerchantmag.com

Assistant Editor: Claire Harries claire@winemerchantmag.com

Advertising: Sarah Hunnisett sarah@winemerchantmag.com

Accounts: Naomi Young naomi@winemerchantmag.com