Vintage 2024

Vintage 2024

Lighter crops just what the doctor ordered

SOPHIE PREECE

MARLBOROUGH COULD be facing a significant drop in yields this season, with some estimating Sauvignon Blanc could be 25% down on the longterm average.

Forrest Wines winemaker Beth Forrest, who is chair of the Marlborough Winegrowers board, says if yields are that much lighter it will result in a financial hit for the region. But the season could provide a valuable reset for the long-term health of the wine industry, given current discussions of an oversupply. “With my Marlborough Winegrowers hat on, I think it is a positive outlook for the longevity of the industry, following two slightly bigger harvests. It’s Mother Nature creating a balancing effect.”

New Zealand Winegrowers (NZW) chief executive Philip Gregan says quality expectations for the upcoming grape harvest are positive, as warm summer conditions continue in winegrowing regions around New Zealand. However, the expectation is for a lighter yield this year, “perhaps significantly so”. NZW is about to conduct its previntage survey of wineries and expects this will confirm the anecdotal reports of a smaller crop in 2024, he adds.

Forrest Wines does not undertake formal bunch counts, but instead runs the “John-o-metre” over their blocks, with seasoned scientist, grower and winemaker Dr John Forrest assessing the season’s yields. “He’s normally within 5% so I have a huge amount of respect for it,” says Beth. “On that we are saying about 25% under our longer-term average cropping for Sauvignon – and much more – maybe 35% to 40% – on Pinot Noir and Chardonnay.” Inflorescence counts, which are an early indication of potential yields, revealed lower than typical bunch numbers, and lower than typical berries per bunch. That situation was exacerbated by patchy flowering in spring 2023. “While it was not exceptionally cold or exceptionally wet, it wasn’t exceptionally warm either, and there were a couple of cold snaps.” The result is a lot of variation, “not just from block to block, but even within a vineyard”, Beth says. “So you walk down a row and have a vine that has done very well through flowering and has a good crop on it, then one beside it that has got almost nothing … That level of variation across vineyards, but also within vineyards, makes us cautious that we’re looking at quite a reduction in crops.”

Some vineyards are also seeing hen and chicken millerandage in Sauvignon Blanc, where some berries do not grow, but sit huddled amongst normally developing fruit. It’s a more common phenomenon with Chardonnay and some other varieties, but seldom seen in Sauvignon, Beth says. “For us it appears this year there has been some sort of hindrance to the formation of those berries.”

The short-term outlook is “really hard”, Beth says, reflecting on the slowing of sales over the past 18 months, creating a “pinch” for wine companies and consequently growers. “Unfortunately, we have seen the post Covid hit come in. Global shipping got slow and then we had a tiny vintage (in 2021), so internationally a lot of people purchased bigger volumes.” Buyers moved from three month to six-month inventories to cover themselves from uncertain shipping schedules, and those pipelines were filled by a bumper 2022 Marlborough vintage. “Now shipping has come into line … they are trying to destock their own warehouses,” Beth says. That has resulted in a “lag phase” for wine companies trying to move the 2023 harvest, which was also higher than average, meaning myriad complications in planning. Companies could pay for bottling and storage of wine, or leave it in the winery until it’s required, Beth says. “But then you need the space for the incoming vintage.” The low 2024 vintage will play a large part in rebalancing the supply demand equilibrium, she says. That will take some time and may hurt, “but it’s really good for the longevity of the industry”.

Beth urges grapegrowers, winemakers, suppliers and buyers to keep communication lines open, recognising that the pain of reduced sales and a low vintage impacts everyone in the industry, as well as the community at large. “If the industry is doing it tough then businesses

around town will be doing it a bit tough too.” Maintaining communication and relationships – including sharing learnings – is key, she says. “It makes you feel better if everyone is fighting the same fight, rather than sitting in a silo.”