QUARTERLY REPORT GENESEE & SHIAWASSEE COUNTIES Q1 2015
SUMMARY GENESEE & SHIAWASSEE Q1 2015 DEMAND OVERVIEW In 2014 employment reached new highs peaking in December with 175,488 individuals in jobs. The average employment level in 2014 was 172,063, 1 1% increase over 2013’s 170,398 workers. The labor force, on the other hand, is slowly declining in the two county area. Falling from 188,456 in 2013 (on average) to 186,358 in 2014 (on average). The unemployment rate in 2014 was 7.7%, a drop from 9.6% in 2013. This drop is equally due to modest job growth and labor force losses. Total online job postings in Genesee and Shiawassee counties have experienced little growth in two quarters. Postings in Q1 2015 dropped to 4,250 from the Q4 2014 level of 4,398, continuing the steady trend. Postings in Genesee and Shiawassee counties fell in all clusters but two, skilled trades & technicians, and retail & hospitality, in Q1 2015. For some the decline was a continuation of a trend (IT, health care) but for others it was a small change from a Q4 2014 peak (TDL, engineers & designers). Postings overall fell 3.4% (by 148 postings), with 40% of the drop due to declines in clusters analyzed by WIN.
*This report includes top jobs and postings over time highlights for clusters that have made major shifts or movements in the past quarter. The data is updated each quarter based on the clusters with the most noteworthy changes. For complete top jobs lists, educational attainment, and wage information, please see the regional reports or contact WIN's Research Director Colby Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org.
GENESEE - TOP JOBS Q1 2015
ANALYSIS Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers is once again the top posting position in Genesee County. Postings for truck drivers have been leading for several quarters and dropped from 386 in Q4 2014 to the current 305. While postings fell, this occupation remains strong. With 305 online job ads in Q1 2015, this occupation has 50% more postings than the next most indemand job, retail salespersons (200 postings). Demand for retail workers is up from 165 postings in Q4 2014 (typically the highest levels for retail workers) to 200 postings in Q1 2015. Demand for registered nurses is also higher this quarter. Moving from the 6th most in-demand position in Q4 2014 with 91 postings to 3rd most in-demand in Q1 2015 with 150 postings. A more than 100% increase in the need for nurses is clearly a signal of growing employer demand in this county.
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HIGHLIGHTS SHIAWASSEE - TOP JOBS Q1 2015
ANALYSIS Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers is the top job in Shiawassee County for another quarter running. Postings for drivers peaked in Q4 2014 with 106 postings and fell to 46 postings in Q1 2015. The next most in-demand jobs in Shiawassee currently are retail supervisors, customer service representatives, registered nurses, and personal finance advisors. Top jobs in Shiawassee tend to shift each quarter because of the county’s size and employer make-up.
HEALTH CARE POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS Health care postings in the Genesee and Shiawassee counties have remained flat with nearly no growth for a fourth quarter running. Since Q2 2014, health care postings in these two counties have hovered around 640. While individual occupations in health care shift in their demand levels, the overall health care demand picture looks to have reached a steady state.
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HIGHLIGHTS TDL POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS Transportation, distribution, and logistics is a new cluster analyzed by WIN for RPI Region 6. With the I-69 corridor running straight through Genesee and Shiawassee counties, this area is part of a major logistics artery in Michigan. TDL postings are growing with a strong upward trend and represent 10.6% of total postings in the two county area. Since data was first collected by WIN, starting in Q1 2011, postings have grown with small fluctuation. In Q1 2011 postings were at 175 and then hit a peak of 499 in Q4 2014. In Q1 2015 postings fell to 452 but remain higher than levels seen before Q4 of last year.
RETAIL & HOSPITALITY POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS Retail and hospitality postings in Genesee and Shiawassee counties fell in a nearly linear pattern since peaking in Q3 3013 (1,960 postings). Q1 2015 marks the first growth experienced in this cluster, moving from 1,076 in Q4 2014 to 1,125 in Q1 2015, since the peak in Q3 2013. While retail and hospitality postings are not growing rapidly, if at all, these jobs still represent a large share of employment and 26.5% of postings making it important to watch.
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LABOR MARKET OVERVIEW EMPLOYMENT & LABOR FORCE
ANALYSIS The labor market in Genesee and Shiawassee counties has remained fairly stagnant. It has been growing slowly with small changes since the recession low in 2010. In 2014 employment reached new highs, peaking in December with 175,488 individuals in jobs. The average employment level in 2014 was 172,063, a 1.1% increase over 2013’s 170,398 workers. The labor force, on the other hand, is slowly declining in the two county area. It has fallen from 188,456 in 2013 (on average) to 186,358 in 2014 (on average). The unemployment rate in 2014 was 7.7%, a drop from 9.6% in 2013. This drop is equally due to modest job growth and labor force losses.
TOTAL POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS Total online job postings in Genesee and Shiawassee counties have experienced little growth in two quarters. After a strong decline from the Q3 2013 peak of 6,517 postings, levels dropped to about 4,300 in Q3 2013 and have remained there since with only small changes. Postings in Q1 2015 dropped to 4,250 from the Q4 2014 level of 4,398, continuing the steady trend.
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POSTING TRENDS BY CLUSTER
ANALYSIS Postings in Genesee and Shiawassee counties fell in all clusters but two, skilled trades & technicians, and retail & hospitality, in Q1 2015. For some the decline was a continuation of a trend (IT, health care) but for others it was a small change from a Q4 2014 peak (TDL, engineers & designers). Postings overall fell 3.4% (by 148 postings), with 40% of the drop due to declines in clusters analyzed by WIN. Postings increased for skilled trade & technician jobs from 116 in Q4 2014 to 123 postings in Q1 2015, a 6% increase. Postings in retail & hospitality also increased a modest amount (4.6%) from 1,076 to 1,125 between Q4 2014 and Q1 2015. The three highest demand clusters analyzed by WIN in the two county area are health care (15.1% of postings), retail & hospitality (26.5% of postings), and TDL (10.6% of postings). The clusters analyzed by WIN in Genesee and Shiawassee Counties represent 60.7% of all online job postings in the county.
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TOP JOBS BY CLUSTER TDL TOP JOBS - GENESEE
ANALYSIS Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers is the top job in TDL in Genesee along with top overall job in the county. Outpacing the next most indemand job in TDL by more than 6:1, truck drivers are in very high demand with 305 postings. Positions for laborers and materials movers take the 2nd most indemand position with 44 postings and stock clerks follow it in the 3rd spot with 13 postings, TDL is an important cluster in the county and is driven by demand for truck drivers .
HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS - GENESEE
ANALYSIS Registered nurses, like in other counties, is the top posting health care job in Genesee County. With 150 postings, demand for registered nurses out-paces demand for other health care workers more than 3:1. The next highest posting health care job is nursing assistants (42 postings) and the third most-posted is LPNs (40 postings). LPNs have risen in demand from fifth place to third and from 24 postings to 40 since Q4 2014. This is a very surprising find as WIN engagement with health care employers has indicated that the demand for LPNs is on the decline. 7
TOP JOBS BY CLUSTER RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS - GENESEE
ANALYSIS Demand for retail workers in Genesee has grown in the past quarter. The top posting positions have retained the same in order of demand since Q4 2014 and many have grown. Postings for retail salespersons increased from 165 in Q4 2014 to 200 in Q1 2015. There was slight growth in demand for sales representatives, up from 116 in Q4 2014 to 130 in Q1 2015. Demand fell modestly for customer service representatives during that same time period from 92 postings to 86.
RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS - SHIAWASSEE
ANALYSIS Shiawassee employers rarely post the same positions each quarter and Q1 2015 is no different. While retail sales persons in Q4 2014 was the top job, in Q1 2015 retail sales supervisors are the most indemand with 13 postings (up from 11 postings and fourth place in Q4 2014). Customer service representatives also have strong demand in the county with 12 postings in Q1 2015. However, this is down from 21 postings in Q4 2014. The general decline in Shiawassee employer postings in this cluster from Q4 2014 to Q1 2015 signals that this county’s retail and hospitality demand is likely driven by the holiday season. 8
TOP JOBS BY CLUSTER HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS - SHIAWASSEE
ANALYSIS Overall demand for health care workers fell in Shiawassee County. Registered nurses, like in other counties, is the top posting health care job in the county but postings are low compared to Q4 2014 levels. With 11 postings, demand for registered nurses dropped by 50% since Q4 2014 (where demand was at 22 postings). Postings for physical therapists (the number one posting job in Q4 2014) dropped from 43 postings in Q4 2014 to 8 in Q1 2015. Employers in Shiawassee County likely found workers to fill the open jobs from Q4 2014 as health care postings dropped so dramatically.
TDL TOP JOBS - SHIAWASSEE
ANALYSIS Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers is the top job in Transportation Distribution and Logistics (TDL) in Shiawassee and the top overall job in the county with 46 postings. Outpacing all other TDL jobs, truck drivers are the key occupation leading demand in this cluster. Positions for laborers and materials movers take the 2nd most in-demand position with 8 postings.
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