Lenawee county q4 2015 report optimizedfinal by Workforce Intelligence Network

WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK

QUARTERLY REPORT 路 LENAWEE COUNTY Q4 2015 & 2015 Annual Summary

CONTENTS Executive Summary Labor Market and Job Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture

Data Notes and Sources

GEOGRAPHY

Prosperity Region 9 includes 6 counties: Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, and Washtenaw. This report focuses on Lenawee County.

SECTION ONE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In 2015, Lenawee County experienced growth in both employment and the size of the labor force as a whole while the unemployment rate fell below 4%. The labor force in Lenawee County increased 2.0% to 48,553 from Q3 to Q4 2015, up from 47,602, while employment grew at a slightly higher rate during the same time period, growing 2.8% from 45,367 to 46,625. Employment in Lenawee County is growing faster than labor force participation, which has remained nearly stagnant since mid-2013. Compared to one year ago (November 2014), the size of the labor force in Lenawee County has fallen by 156 workers. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in November 2015, which is the lowest rate Lenawee County has seen throughout all of 2015.

Lenawee County employers looking for qualified skilled trades or agriculture workers are likely to use other recruiting methods besides online job postings when looking for qualified candidates. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of eight postings per net new job in 2015. Skilled trades saw three online job ads for each net new job, while agriculture had only one online job ad for each net new job between 2011 and 2015. On average, employers of skilled trades and agriculture workers do not post online with the same intensity as other employers in Lenawee County and are likely to use other recruiting methods when looking for qualified candidates.

In Q4 2015, registered nurses topped the Lenawee County in-demand job posting list for the Health Care cluster. Postings for registered nurses made up more than thirty percent of all Health Care postings from October to December 2015 (32.4%, 77 of 238 total health care postings). Despite a decline in postings throughout some of the other occupation clusters, postings for registered nurses grew by 55, a 250.0% increase from Q3 to Q4 2015. 4

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Occupations in the Information Technology cluster as a whole are increasing in employer demand in Lenawee County; however, employers are having a hard time finding qualified candidates. Online job postings in the Information Technology cluster have increased 223.1% (29 postings) from Q4 2014 to Q4 2015. Postings in the Information Technology cluster made up 3.5% of the total postings (42 of the 1,191 total postings) for Lenawee County in Q4 2015. Employment in the Information Technology cluster has remained stagnant since 2006, but is expected to grow as the demand rises.

Southeast Michigan employers offer highly competitive wages in both engineering and design and information technology occupations. en Nearly all occupations within the engineering and design and information technology clusters have starting wages over $20 per hour, and many start at over $25 per hour. This translates to a starting salary of $41,600 to $52,000 annually.

SECTION TWO LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW

TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2015

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies

During the fourth quarter of 2015, truck drivers maintained the top posting position. Postings for truck drivers increased by 42 postings (57.5%) from the third quarter to the fourth. During the same time period, registered nurses moved from the eighth position to the second for an increase of 250.0% (22 postings in Q3 and 77 postings in Q4). Demand for retail salespersons dropped by nine postings, falling 17%.0 from Q3 to Q4. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014), the top jobs have shifted dramatically. Notable changes include the addition of nursing assistants, medical and laboratory technicians, and production supervisors. No longer in the top twenty compared to one year ago are childcare workers, LPNs, maids and housekeepers, or store clerks. 7

EMPLOYER DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2015

Online job ads dropped by only 28, -2.3%, from 1,219 in Q3 2015 to 1,191 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings drop compared to Q3 each year. In general, postings are on an increasing trend despite the recent drop. Employment is also steadily increasing highlighting the connection between online job ads and hiring.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE

Employment continues to trend upward with seasonal declines seen in December/ January and July/August of each year. The labor force remains rather stagnant and is not seeing the same level of growth as employment in the years since the recession. The unemployment rate has continued to fall with seasonal spikes which match employment declines.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

The labor force in Lenawee County increased 2.0% to 48,553 from Q3 to Q4 2015, up from 47,602, while employment grew at a slightly higher rate during the same time period, growing 2.8% from 45,367 to 46,625. Employment in Lenawee County is growing faster than labor force participation, which has remained nearly stagnant since mid-2013. Compared to one year ago (November 2014), the size of the labor force in Lenawee County has fallen by 156 workers. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in November 2015, which is the lowest rate Lenawee County has seen throughout all of 2015. As employment has grown faster than the labor force, the drop in unemployment is due mostly to job gains.

SECTION THREE OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS

LENAWEE COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WINâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2015, skilled trades employment reached 1,864 individuals in Lenawee County. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Welders fell from the top posting position to the sixth position in the fourth quarter of 2015 while production supervisors, production workers, and machinists made up the top three. Production workers decreased by 3 postings (-25.0%) from the third quarter to the fourth, while production supervisors increased by 6 postings (75.0%). The decrease in overall postings was anticipated as Q4 postings are historically lower than Q3 each year. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top jobs have dramatically. Eight of the 15 top in-demand occupations are new to the list. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are chemical equipment operators and tenders, CNC programmers, manufacturing production technicians, and structural metal fabricators and finishers.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job ads in the Skilled Trades & Technicians cluster dropped by 21 postings, -28.0%, from 75 in Q3 2015 to 54 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 each year. In general, postings are on an upswing despite the recent drop. Postings in the Skilled Trades and Technicians cluster made up 4.5% of the total postings (54 of the 1,191 total postings) for Lenawee County in Q4 2015. Employment is also steadily increasing, but has yet to reach pre-recession levels.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Skilled Trade and Technician occupational employment cluster in Lenawee County is estimated at 1,864 (2015). Skilled trades employment is down by less than 1.0% (-0.6%, 11 workers) from 2014 to 2015. Though employment in this cluster is still below the pre-recession level of 2,439 (2005), it is higher than the recession trough of 1,519 (2010). Growth in this cluster is slow, but steady and the general trend is positive. The net employment gain has been steady over the past four years (288 more workers employed in 2015 compared to 2011), with about three online job ads in for each net new job. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of eight postings per net new job in 2015. On average, employers of skilled trade workers do not post online with the same intensity as other employers in Lenawee County and are likely to use other recruiting methods when looking for qualified candidates.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Most occupations within the Skilled Trades and Technicians cluster offer upward mobility in wages, with a few offering wages over $15 per hour to start, but the majority are closer to $10 per hour. Many occupations in this cluster offer wages over $15 per hour at the median, with some offering over $25 per hour. Wages for most skilled trades occupations in southeast Michigan show that experience is required in order to earn a high wage. Wages for the skilled trades in southeast Michigan are modestly higher than the U.S. on average. 19

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a competitive edge in the Skilled Trades cluster with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Tool and die makers have an LQ of 5.85, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 5.85 times (485% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. Tire builders (24% below the national average) along with chemical plant and systems operators (23% below the national average) are two of the in-demand occupations in the region with room for growth. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistently high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field. 20

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 466 employed individuals in Lenawee County during 2015. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies

Industrial engineers once again top the list in this cluster. The top two in-demand occupations remained unchanged from Q3 to Q4 2015. Industrial engineers declined by 2 postings (-16.7%) while mechanical engineers increased by 2 postings (up 100% from Q3 2015). Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top jobs have shifted slightly. New to the top occupations are architects, architectural drafters, and commercial and industrial designers. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are chemical engineers.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job ads in the Engineers and Design cluster dropped by 12 postings, -31.6%, from 38 in Q3 2015 to 26 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 postings each year. Despite the recent drop, postings in this cluster have increased 73.30% (11 postings) over the past full year. Postings in the Engineers and Designers cluster made up 2.2% of the total postings (26 of the 1,191 total postings) for Lenawee County in Q4 2015. Employment in the Engineers and Designers cluster is experiencing small gains as the demand continues to rise, but has not reached pre-recession levels.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Engineering and Design occupational employment cluster in Lenawee County is estimated at 466 (2015). Engineering and design employment is up 0.2% (only 1 worker) from 2014 to 2015. This exceeds the pre-recession level of 538 (2005) by 72 workers and is much higher than the recession trough of 415 (2009). Growth in this cluster has been stagnant since 2012. There were 144 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job as there was only a net employment gain of 1 worker. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of eight postings per net new job. Engineering and design employers in Lenawee County are likely having a hard time finding qualified candidates as displayed by the high posting intensity and low employment gain.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for engineers and designers are highly competitive. Nearly all occupations have starting wages over $20 per hour, and many start at over $25 per hour. This translates to a starting salary of $41,600 to $52,000 annually. The strongest wage growth among the occupations comprising the engineer and design cluster include industrial engineers, manufacturing engineers, electrical engineers, and mechanical engineers. Wages for engineers and designers in southeast Michigan are nearly equivalent to national averages in the same occupations.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a competitive edge in the Engineering and Design occupations with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Mechanical engineers and automotive engineers both have an LQ of 6.46, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 6.46 times (546% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. There are four indemand occupations in the region with room for growth. Chemical engineers offer the most potential for growth as the LQ is .56, 46% below the national average. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistently high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field. 28

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. In 2014, graduates with certificates and degrees in engineering and design fields were most prevalent in mechanical, automotive, and electrical engineering. Fewer graduates completed training as civil and chemical engineers. With hiring at its current strong rate and employer demand remaining high, the current supply of new engineers does not meet demand. More trained workers are needed to fill open positions.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Every in-demand engineering and design occupation requires at least a two-year degree or apprenticeship for an entry-level position. Most require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree. While work experience is not an explicit requirement for these occupations, in general, many employers require an internship, co-op, apprenticeship, or other workplace learning experience before hiring an applicant. This is true even at the entry level. Many employers also prefer advanced degrees for engineers, especially mechanical engineers.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2015, IT occupational employment was 261 in Lenawee County. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies

Software developers continue to dominate the top jobs list for this cluster, providing 30.0% of the total postings for Q4 2015 (606 of the 1,992 total postings). As expected, overall postings declined in Q4 when compared to Q3 2015. Software developers declined by 155 postings (-20.4%) while computer systems analysts declined by 44 postings (-18.7%). Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top jobs have dramatically. New to the list in Q4 2015 compared to Q4 2014 is the need for application software developers. No longer appearing in the top occupations compared to one year ago are business intelligence analysts, computer and information systems managers, information security analysts, search marketing strategists, and video game designers. 32

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Overall, online job postings only decreased by 2 (-4.5%) from Q3 2015 to Q4 2015 in the Information Technology cluster. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 postings each year. Despite this trend, postings in this cluster have increased 223.1% (29 postings) from Q4 2014 to Q4 2015. Postings in the Information Technology cluster made up 3.5% of the total postings (42 of the 1,191 total postings) for Lenawee County in Q4 2015. Employment in the Information Technology cluster has remained stagnant since 2006, but is expected to grow as the demand rises.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Information Technology occupational employment cluster in Lenawee County is estimated at 261 (2015), growing 0.8% (only 2 workers) from 2014 to 2015. Employment in this cluster is still below pre-recession level of 294 (2005) by 33 workers. Growth in this cluster has been stagnant since 2006 and slightly declined in from 2013 to 2014. There were 72 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job as there was only a net employment gain of 2 workers. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of eight postings per net new job. Employers seeking information technology workers in Lenawee County are likely having a hard time finding qualified candidates as displayed by the high posting intensity and low employment gain.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for information technology workers are highly competitive. Nearly all occupations have starting wages over $20 per hour and a few start at over $25 per hour, which translates to a starting salary of $41,600 to $52,000 annually. The strongest wage growth across the career spectrum is experienced by, systems software developers, applications software developers, computer systems analysts, and database administrators. Wages for IT workers in southeast Michigan are below national averages for the same occupations indicating potential growth for pay in the future as workers are more in-demand.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in several Information Technology occupations, with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Computer user support specialists have an LQ of 1.34, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 1.34 times (34% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. There are three in-demand occupations in the region with room for growth. Web developers offer the most potential for growth as the LQ is .72, 28% below the national average. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistently high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field. 36

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. In 2014, graduates with certificates and degrees in many in-demand IT fields were insufficient to meet demand. The most graduates available have degrees related to web development, computer support specialists, and software developers. The top position, computer user support specialists, had 1,357 regional related grads, which is not nearly enough to meet the demand throughout southeast Michigan.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Every in-demand IT occupation requires post-secondary training for an entry-level position, and most require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree. For select occupations, like database administrators, on-the-job training and work experience are essential for an entry-level position. This means that an internship, co-op, apprenticeship, or other workplace learning experience is necessary.

HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 2,252 employees in 2015 in Lenawee County. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster.

HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Registered nurses and physical therapists continued to dominate the top two spots on the indemand occupation list in Q4 2015. Postings for registered nurses made up more than thirty percent of all Health Care postings from October to December 2015 (32.4%, 77 of 238 total health care postings). Despite a decline in postings throughout some of the other occupation clusters, postings for registered nurses grew by 55, a 250.0% increase from Q3 to Q4 2015. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top in-demand jobs have changed. New to the top occupations are occupational therapy assistants, pharmacy technicians, physician assistants, surgical assistants, and surgical technologists. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are health technologists and technicians, home health aides, nurse practitioners, physicians and surgeons, and psychiatrists. 40

HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job postings in the Health Care cluster increased by 34.5% (61 postings) from Q3 2015 to Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 each year, however, 2015 saw an increase between the quarters in this particular cluster. Compared to Q4 2014, Q4 2015 Health Care cluster postings have increased by nearly 80% (78.9%, 105 postings). Postings in the Health Care cluster made up 20.0% of the total postings (238 of the 1,191 total postings) for Lenawee County in Q4 2015. Employment in this cluster has remained steady since 2005.

HEALTH CARE EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Health Care occupational employment cluster in Lenawee County is estimated at 2,252 (2015). Health care employment is up 0.7% (16 workers) from 2014 to 2015. This particular cluster did not experience a decline during the recession and has remained rather flat since 2005. The net employment gain remains steady, with about 45 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of eight postings per net new job. Employers seeking health care workers in Lenawee County are likely experiencing difficulty finding qualified candidates based upon the higher posting intensity.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for health care workers are not consistent from occupation to occupation. While some jobs start workers (10th percentile) at a wage well above $20 per hour, some of the more entry-level occupations start workers closer to $10 per hour. There is considerable wage growth with more education in this field. A worker experiences an exponential increase in wages when advancing from a medical assistant position to an RN or a physician. While some health care jobs are not high paying at the onset, they do offer upward mobility with experience. Wages for health care workers in the region are generally on par with national averages. For lower level occupations, nursing assistants, medical assistants, etc. wages are below national averages. 43

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in several Health Care occupations, with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Physical therapists have an LQ of 1.45, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 1.45 times (45% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. There are four in-demand occupations in the region with room for growth. Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses offer the most potential for growth as the LQ is .65, 35% below the national average. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistently high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field. 44

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. In 2014, graduates with certificates and degrees in many in-demand health care fields were insufficient to meet demand. The most graduates available have degrees in nursing but there is a disconnect between the level of degree required for nursing and the level of degree graduates attain. Many individuals choose to complete a two-year degree in nursing to become an LPN. Most health systems and hospitals now require a higher share of their nursing staff to hold four-year degrees. This, and demand for other nursing specialists, is furthering the divide between employer demand and the supply of qualified workers.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Nearly every in-demand health care occupation requires post-secondary training for an entry-level position. Most require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree or higher. For select occupations like pharmacy technicians, on-the-job training is important. Like many other clusters, wages increase with educational attainment, and health care is a field where education is transferable and stackable. Once a person gets a foot in the door, each new opportunity in education can utilize the learning and experience from a more entry-level position. 46

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2015, 8,304 individuals were employed in retail and hospitality related occupations in Lenawee County.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Retail salespersons remained the top in-demand occupation in Q4 2015 while sales representatives remained in the second position. Postings for retail salespersons made up 16.0% of all Retail and Hospitality postings (44 of 275 total retail and hospitality postings) in Q4 2015. Postings for retail salespersons declined by nine postings (-17.0%) from Q3 to Q4 which was expected based on historical trends. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top indemand jobs shifted slightly. New to the top occupations are supervisors of non-retail sales workers, food service managers, and purchasing agents. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are dishwashers, maids/housekeepers, and waiters/waitresses.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Overall, online job postings in the Retail and Hospitality cluster decreased by 19, -6.5%, from 294 in Q3 2015 to 275 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings have been lower than Q3 each year, so this drop is expected. Over the past year, online job postings in this cluster have increased by 15.5% from 238 postings in Q4 2014 to 275 postings in Q4 2015. Postings in the Retail and Hospitality cluster made up 23.1% of the total postings (275 of the 1,191 total postings) for Lenawee County in Q4 2015, making retail and hospitality occupations the most in-demand of the clusters analyzed in Lenawee County. Retail and Hospitality employment has increased since 2009 and has remained relatively flat since 2012.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Retail and Hospitality occupational employment cluster in Lenawee County is estimated at 8,304 (2015). Retail and hospitality employment is up 0.6% (53 workers) from 2014 to 2015. This is below the pre-recession level of 8,497 (2005) by 193 workers, but higher than the recession trough of 7,932 (2009). Growth in this cluster has been trending upward since 2010. The net employment gain is steady, with about 19 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of eight postings per net new job. The retail and hospitality industry in Lenawee County is posting at a higher intensity than the average rate of postings per net new job (eight postings) indicating employers are having a hard time finding qualified candidates.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for retail and hospitality workers are not consistent from occupation to occupation. While some jobs start workers (10th percentile) at wages above $20 per hour, many of the more entry-level occupations start workers below $10 per hour. Most wage growth in these fields can be had with experience and training. Jobs in technical sales and management require more education and experience, thus these jobs pay considerably more. Retail and hospitality workers in southeast Michigan have similar wage levels to workers nationally with some occupations, specifically sales representatives, making higher wages than the national average. 51

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in certain Retail and Hospitality occupations with LQs greater than 1, being higher than the national average. Purchasing agents (except wholesale, retail, and farm products) have an LQ of 1.61, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 1.61 times (61% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. However, many of the region’s most indemand Retail and Hospitality occupations have LQs between 0.85 and 0.99, meaning that regional employment in these occupations is only between 85% and 99% of national average employment. Because of increased demand for these occupations, employment in Retail and Hospitality can be expected to grow but employers may not be able to fill positions easily due to a low concentration of workers.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. Most retail and hospitality jobs do not require an advanced degree. Sales managers have a large number of graduates with related degrees because the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s educational programs graduate a large number of students with training in business management. For certain occupations where specialized training is essential, marketing managers, cooks, technical sales, etc., very few graduates exist to fill employer needs.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Like wages, educational attainment requirements in retail and hospitality require a variety of credentials. Many entry-level occupations require only a high school diploma and on-the-job training while other occupations require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree. Wages follow education in this cluster with the most competitive wages and upward mobility found in jobs that require the most higher education and training. 54

AGRICULTURE WINâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2015, 2,082 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Lenawee County.

AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Nonfarm animal caretakers and sales representatives (wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products) were the most in-demand occupation in the Agriculture cluster for Lenawee County in Q4 2015 with only two postings for each occupation. Since there are so few postings in this cluster, it is no surprise that the top in-demand jobs have changed drastically when compared to one year ago (Q4 2014). This shift can be attributed to employers filling their openings. New to the top occupations are biological science teachers (postsecondary), food and tobacco roasting, baking, and drying machine operators, occupational health and safety specialists, and water and wastewater treatment plant and systems operators. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are agricultural sciences teachers (postsecondary), food cooking machine operators and tenders, and recreation workers. 56

AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job postings in the Agriculture cluster decreased by 37.5% (6 postings) from Q3 2015 to Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings drop compared to Q3 each year, while postings tend to reach their yearly peak in quarter two or three each year in this cluster. These peaks are likely due to the seasonal nature of most agriculture postings. Agriculture postings represent less than 1.0% of the total postings (0.80%, 10 of the 1,191 total postings) for Lenawee County. Employment in Agriculture has grown since 2012 while job postings in the same cluster have never reached more than 21 postings in one quarter. This indicates that Lenawee County employers in this cluster may use alternative recruiting methods and do not rely as heavily on online job postings as some other clusters. 57

AGRICULTURE EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Agriculture occupational employment cluster in Lenawee County is estimated at 2,082 (2015). Agriculture employment is down by less than 1.0% (-0.9%, 18 workers) from 2014 to 2015. Growth in this cluster has remained relatively flat over the past ten years with an increase seen between 2012 and 2013. Lenawee County did not experience a major decline during the recession in Agriculture employment. The net employment gain has been steady over the past four years (284 more workers employed in 2015 compared to 2011), with about one online job ad for each net new job. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of eight postings per net new job in 2015. On average, employers of Agriculture workers do not post online with the same intensity as other employers in Lenawee County and are likely to use other recruiting methods when looking for qualified candidates.

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for agriculture workers are not consistent from occupation to occupation. While some jobs start workers (10th percentile) at wages above $20 per hour, many of the agriculture occupations offer a starting wage around $10 per hour. Most wage growth in these fields can be had with experience and training. Jobs in sales and research require more education and experience, thus these jobs pay considerably more. Agriculture workers have similar wage levels to workers nationally with some occupations making higher wages than the national average.

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in certain Agriculture occupations with LQs greater than 1, being higher than the national average. Nonfarm animal caretakers have an LQ of 1.07, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 1.07 times (7% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. However, many of the region’s most indemand Agriculture occupations have LQs between 0.46 and 0.90, meaning that regional employment in these occupations is only between 46% and 90% of national average employment. Because of increased demand for these occupations, employment in Agriculture can be expected to grow but employers may not be able to fill positions due to a low concentration of workers.

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Like wages, educational attainment requirements in agriculture span a spectrum of credentials. Many entry-level occupations require only a high school diploma and on-the-job training while other occupations require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree. Wages follow education in this cluster with the most competitive wages and upward mobility found in jobs that require the most higher education and training.

SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage, location quotient, completion, and education requirement data is shown for the 16 county region that is part of the WIN partnership. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm • This report uses $15 as a "living wage" estimate. Any job paying more than this is considered to pay at least a living wage. Below $15 is less than a living wage. This definition is based on a median household income in Michigan which is close to $50,000 per year. If we assume that most homes have two income earners and both earn at least $15 per hour, then that household's anual income would be at least $62,000 putting these jobs above the median.

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.

DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.

BOARD ORGANIZATIONS

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