QUARTERLY REPORT LIVINGSTON COUNTY Q1 2015
SUMMARY LIVINGSTON Q1 2015 DEMAND OVERVIEW Employment reached a high of 84,741 in December 2014 with the 2014 average employment at 83,728 individuals. This is a 1.7% increase over the 2013 average level of 82,343 individuals. Employment growth has outpaced labor force growth resulting in an unemployment rate of 7.3% (2014 average). Between 2013 and 2014 the unemployment rate dropped from an average 8.6% to 7.3%. Total online job postings in Livingston County grew from 1,519 in Q4 2014 to 1,905 in Q1 2015, a 25% increase. This level is near the Q3 2013 peak of 1,929 postings, marking another high point in employer demand. Until Q1 2015, postings remained flat for much of 2013 and 2014. Postings in Livingston County are up across the board with every cluster analyzed by WIN experiencing growth between Q4 2014 and Q1 2015. Posting growth is the largest for skilled trade occupations and smallest for retail & hospitality. While skilled trade postings increased from 66 to 138 over the past quarter (109% increase), levels in the 100s are not unusual in this cluster. Most notable is the increase in engineering and design postings, 82% growth from 34 postings in Q4 2014 to 62 in Q1 2015, as this cluster typically has low posting levels. The clusters analyzed by WIN in Livingston County represent 56.7% of all online job postings in the county. *This report includes top jobs and postings over time highlights for clusters that have made major shifts or movements in the past quarter. The data is updated each quarter based on the clusters with the most noteworthy changes. For complete top jobs lists, educational attainment, and wage information, please see the regional reports or contact WIN's Research Director Colby Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org.
TOP JOBS Q1 2015
ANALYSIS Retail salespersons are the most in-demand occupation in Livingston County with 96 postings in Q1 2015. This is roughly equal to its demand in Q4 2014 (90 postings). Postings for heavy tractortrailer truck drivers is down from 106 in Q4 2014 to 85 in Q1 2015, but demand remains high. Postings have increased for supervisors of retail sales workers from 51 in Q4 2014 to 64 in Q1 2015 with this occupation maintaining its third most in-demand position. Registered nurse demand is almost double its level in Q4 2014 (25 postings) with 43 postings in Q1 2015.
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HIGHLIGHTS HEALTH CARE POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS Health care postings in Livingston County have jumped this quarter from 137 in Q4 2014 to 247 in Q1 2015. After a year of stagnation, the increase is a clear sign of employer needs increasing. Postings previously peaked in Q3 2013 with 253 postings and this quarter’s 247 is not far off that mark. Typically postings fall after such a large peak and Q2 105 is expected to follow suit.
ENGINEER & DESIGNER POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS While engineering and design jobs are not the largest cluster in Livingston County, employer demand has jumped to a point not seen since early 2013. Prior to Q1 2013, postings in this cluster were frequently in the 60s. Since Q2 2013, however, engineer and designer job postings have hovered close to 35 with some moderate fluctuation. In Q1 2015, postings jumped up to 62 from 34 in Q4 2014, nearly doubling. A single employer is not responsible for the increase but demand across the board in Livingston County is on the rise. 3
LABOR MARKET OVERVIEW EMPLOYMENT & LABOR FORCE
ANALYSIS Livingston County’s labor market has continued to grow since the lows of the 2010 recession. Employment reached a high of 84,741 in December 2014 with the 2014 average employment at 83,728 individuals. This is a 1.7% increase over the 2013 average level of 82,343 individuals. The labor force is growing, however, the rate is not as rapid as employment. Employment growth has outpaced labor force growth resulting in an unemployment rate of 7.3% (2014 average). Between 2013 and 2014 the unemployment rate dropped from an average 8.6% to 7.3%.
TOTAL POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS Total online job postings in Livingston County grew from 1,519 in Q4 2014 to 1,905 in Q1 2015, a 25% increase. This level is near the Q3 2013 peak of 1,929 postings, marking another high point in employer demand. Until Q1 2015, postings remained flat for much of 2013 and 2014.
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POSTING TRENDS BY CLUSTER
ANALYSIS Postings in Livingston County are up across the board with every cluster analyzed by WIN experiencing growth between Q4 2014 and Q1 2015. Posting growth is the largest for skilled trade occupations and smallest for retail & hospitality. While skilled trade postings increased from 66 to 138 over the past quarter (109% increase), levels in the 100s are not unusual in this cluster. Most notable is the increase in engineering and design postings, 82% growth from 34 postings in Q4 2014 to 62 in Q1 2015, as this cluster typically has low posting levels. While retail & hospitality postings grew almost 24% in comparison to other clusters, this growth marks a comeback for these occupations. For the past year retail & hospitality job ads have remained low. The increase is a welcome sign of increased hiring soon to come. Health care jobs also increased substantially by 80%, over the last quarter. The clusters analyzed by WIN in Livingston County represent 56.7% of all online job postings in the county.
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TOP JOBS BY CLUSTER ENGINEER & DESIGNER TOP JOBS
ANALYSIS Engineer and designer jobs have taken off in Livingston County with 82% growth in the past quarter. The largest employer needs are for industrial engineers with 22 postings in Q1 2015, up from four in Q4 2014. The increase in demand for industrial engineers is remarkable as it has moved from fourth to first in-demand. Demand for manufacturing engineers is also high with 13 postings, up from two in Q4 2014. Mechanical engineers, typically a top poster, moved to third place and retained is level of seven postings.
SKILLED TRADE & TECHNICIAN TOP JOBS
ANALYSIS Like many clusters in Livingston, skilled trade job postings are up substantially in Q1 2015 compared to 2014 levels. Skilled trades had the largest increase of all clusters analyzed by WIN in Livingston County. CNC machinists are the top indemand job for Q1 2015 with 29 postings. This is up from 14 postings in Q4 2014. First-line supervisors of production and operating workers also increased in demand, growing from five postings (and fifth most in-demand) in Q4 2014 to 14 postings and second most in-demand in Q1 2015.
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TOP JOBS BY CLUSTER HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS
ANALYSIS Like all clusters in Livingston County, health care job ads increased this quarter. Health care job demand is up and employer needs for registered nurses are far and away the highest of any health care occupation. Growing nearly 50% from 25 postings in Q4 2014 to 43 online job postings in Q1 2015, this typical top posting job is even more in-demand. Other top health care jobs , are nursing assistants (29 postings) and medical assistants (24 postings). These three occupations have maintained the top three most in-demand spots for several quarters running.
RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS
ANALYSIS Retail & hospitality job demand was relatively flat during 2014 but has grown to near record highs in Q1 2015. While postings increased considerably, no single occupation is responsible for the gains. Nearly all occupations experienced an increase in postings. Retail salespersons are the most in-demand job with 96 postings (up from 90 in Q4 2014). First-line supervisors are the second most in-demand occupation with 64 postings (up from 51 in Q4 2014). The largest jump in postings was for sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, with an increase from 26 postings to 42 between Q4 2014 and Q1 2015. 7
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