WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK
QUARTERLY REPORT 路 MACOMB COUNTY Q4 2015 & 2015 Annual Summary
CONTENTS Executive Summary Labor Market and Job Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality
Data Notes and Sources
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GEOGRAPHY
Southeast Michigan WIN region includes 9 counties:
Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne.* This report focuses on the Macomb County.
Genesee
St. Clair
Shiawassee Oakland Macomb Livingston Washtenaw
Wayne
Monroe
* The original WIN partnership included the 9 counties in this report . The WIN partnership expanded t include 16 counties as of late 2015. Hillsdale, Huron, Jackson, Lapeer, Lenawee, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties were added. While this report is still focused on the original 9-county labor shed, much of the analysis (wages, location quotients, recent gradutes, and educational attainment requirements), are shown in all reports for the new broader 16-county area.
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SECTION ONE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Registered nurses and heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers are in high demand across southeast Michigan, including Macomb County (pg. 7). Employer demand in some of the region’s other top jobs is growing quickly in Macomb, too: ads in 2015 grew for software developers for applications (52%), electrical engineers (58%), and mechanical engineers (51%).
Employment in Macomb County continued to grow during 2015 (pg. 9-11). Employment dipped during the beginning of the year but Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that the county’s employment numbers were on the rise through November 2015.
Employment in the Skilled Trades grew nearly 5% in Macomb County during 2015 (pg. 18).
During 2015, 26,904 workers held Skilled Trades & Technicians jobs, but employment levels still have not reached the 30,000-plus jobs seen in 2001. The general growth in job demand, however, is driving this steady growth in employment – employment in the Skilled Trades grew 4.7% from 2014 to 2015.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Employment in the Engineering & Design cluster returned to pre-recession levels in 2015 (pg. 26).
In 2015 there were 11,491 Macomb County workers employed in these occupations, returning to employment levels seen in 2005 and 2006. Engineering employment’s lowest point was in 2009, but employment has grown each year since then.
Retail & Hospitality is Macomb County’s largest occupational cluster in terms of demand, though postings decreased from Q3 to Q4 2015 (pg. 49).
Following a typical business cycle, the number of ads employers posted in the cluster during Q4 (2,984) decreased 11% from the 3,366 postings accrued during Q3.
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SECTION TWO LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
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TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2015
* Data : Burning Glass Technologies During Q4 2015, Macomb County employers posted 653 online job ads for registered nurses. This represents a 9% increase in postings for this occupation from the Q3 2015 total of 596, making RNs the most in-demand job in Macomb. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (522 postings) and retail salespersons (521 postings) are still in high demand in Macomb County, and demand for each occupation has increased over 20% since Q4 2014. In addition to increased demand for nurses and truck drivers, online job ads in 2015 grew for software developers for applications (52%), electrical engineers (58%), and mechanical engineers (51%). 7
EMPLOYER DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2015
Employer demand in Macomb County grew overall during 2015. The number of online job ads posted by Macomb County employers during Q4 was down 9% from Q3 2015 totals, meaning Q4 was the only quarter during 2015 that postings decreased from the previous quarter. Despite the decrease, the 13,991 online job ads in Macomb during Q4 are higher than the 2015 average number of quarterly postings, 13,733. The upward trend in employer demand in the county translated into employment growth in 2015, compared to 2014.
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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
Employment in Macomb County continued to grow during 2015. Employment dipped during the beginning of the year but Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that the county’s employment numbers were on the rise through November 2015. The labor force in Macomb County fluctuated during 2015, reaching a peak mid-year, but decreasing again by November. The county’s labor force has hovered fairly close to the average of 415,000 since 2010. Unemployment rates in Macomb County have been decreasing overall from the high peak in early 2009.
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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
During November 2015, Macomb County had 394,683 employed workers, with an available labor force of 415,932. Macomb County employment numbers remained stagnant between Q3 and Q4 2015, while the labor force decreased slightly (0.5%), losing 2,056 workers. The unemployment rate in Macomb County during November 2015 was estimated at 5.1%, a 2.3 percentage point-drop from January 2015 (7.3% unemployment rate).
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SECTION THREE OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
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MACOMB COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2015, skilled trades employment reached 26,904 individuals in Macomb County. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS
* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Macomb County’s most in-demand Skilled Trades & Technicians occupation during Q4 2015 was first-line supervisors of production and operating workers. The 108 online job ads posted for this occupation represents 15% of total Skilled Trades employer demand for the county during Q4. Supervisors of production workers were also the top Skilled Trades job in Q4 2014, but postings for this occupation have increased 30% in the year since then. Postings fell for production workers, the top in-demand job in Q3 2015 with 134 postings, to 89 postings during Q4.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Macomb County employers posted 698 online job ads for the Skilled Trades & Technicians occupations during Q4 2015. This is a 19% drop from Q3 2015, when data show 860 online job ads. Employer demand for this cluster in Macomb County had been stagnant throughout 2015, before this decrease, with an average of 844 postings per quarter during the first three quarters of the year. Postings generally decline during the fourth quarter, following a typical business cycle, and 2015’s posting levels are overall higher than 2014. Continual growth in demand for Skilled Trades occupations is likely to drive employment growth in the future, depending on Macomb County’s supply of qualified workers. Job postings in the Skilled Trades & Technicians cluster accounted for 5% of total postings during Q4 2015.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Skilled Trades employment in Macomb County began its decline well before the Great Recession. Employment in this cluster has been recovering slowly since its lowest point in 2009, when 18,404 Macomb workers were employed in these jobs. During 2015, 26,904 workers held Skilled Trades & Technicians jobs, but employment levels still have not reached the 30,000-plus jobs seen in 2001. The general growth in job demand, however, is driving this steady growth in employment – employment in the Skilled Trades grew 4.7% from 2014 to 2015.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS WAGES
Many Skilled Trades occupations offer Macomb County workers good wages, or room to experience wage growth with experience. Wage data show that five of the top 15 in-demand Skilled Trades jobs offer hourly earnings over $15 at entry-level (10th percentile wages). Many occupations reach or surpass this living wage benchmark for median hourly earnings. Managerial occupations, like first-line supervisors of production and operating workers, and technician positions like electronics engineering technicians or electrical engineering technicians, offer the most room for wage growth in this cluster.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT
The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in southeast Michigan compared to the US on average. Higher LQs typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQs will make filling open positions more difficult. For example, electrical and electronic equipment assemblers have a LQ of 5.85, meaning that the concentration of these workers in southeast Michigan is 485% higher than the rest of the country, on average, and that Macomb employers should have many workers to choose from when recruiting. On the other hand, welders, cutters, and welder fitters are concentrated in the region at a level just 41% of the national average (LQ = 0.41), so Macomb County employers will likely struggle to find qualified workers to fill their job postings.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES
Many Skilled Trades jobs do not require an advanced degree but may require a post-secondary certificate attainable through on-the-job training. Technician jobs are likely to require an associate’s degree. As the data on completions show, regional graduates from 2014 were abundant for Macomb County’s most indemand Skilled Trades & Technicians occupations. For example, in the 16-county WIN region, 208 workers completed the necessary educational requirements that would make them eligible for the 40 computercontrolled machine tool operator jobs postings in Macomb during Q4 2015. Other in-demand occupations face a dearth of qualified candidates in the Southeast Michigan job market. Completions data for the region show no completions during 2014 for jobs like welders, cutters, & welder fitters, and electrical and electronic equipment assemblers. Due to the regional nature of the labor force in Southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16 counties in the WIN partnership.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
Most of Macomb County’s in-demand Skilled Trades & Technicians occupations are attainable for workers without additional, post-secondary education. Skilled Trades jobs like machinists or tool and die makers require only a high school diploma, although employers will likely favor candidates with some prior experience. Training to become an electronics engineering technician or electrical engineering technician will require obtaining an associate’s degree.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 11,491 employed individuals in Macomb County during 2015. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP JOBS
* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Macomb County’s most in-demand Engineering occupations remained unchanged from Q3 to Q4 2015. Electrical engineers top the list with 329 online job postings, followed by mechanical engineers (327 postings), and industrial engineers (183 postings). Materials engineers (56 postings), electronics engineers (34 postings), and industrial safety and health engineers (14 postings) were some of the Engineering & Design occupations to grow in demand and join the top jobs list, when compared to Q4 last year.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
The Engineering & Design occupational cluster was the only WIN-analyzed cluster that saw postings increase during Q4 2015 from Q3. Macomb County employers posted 63, or 4%, more online job ads for these occupations from October to December than from July through September 2015. Q2 2015 was a new peak in employer demand for this cluster in Macomb County. Employers posted 1,743 online job ads for Engineers & Designers, the highest level of demand seen since analysis began in Q1 2011. The quarterly posting average during 2015 was 1,516 per quarter. The increased job demand for Engineering occupations signals that employment in this cluster will grow, dependent upon the availability of qualified workers in the regional labor market. Demand for Engineers & Designers accounted for 11% of total online job ads posted in Macomb County during Q4 2015.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Employment in the Engineering & Design occupations grew nearly 4% in Macomb County during 2015. In 2015 there were 11,491 Macomb County workers employed in these occupations, returning to employment levels seen in 2005 and 2006. Engineering employment’s lowest point was in 2009, but employment has grown each year since then. Together with the continued employer demand for these occupations, employment in the Engineering & Design cluster is projected to keep growing.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS WAGES
Engineering & Design occupations offer Advanced Manufacturing workers in Macomb County good wages. All of the county’s most in-demand engineering jobs in Q4 offer a living wage above $15 for entry-level positions (10th percentile wages). The Engineering occupations also offer opportunity for wage growth with experience. Experienced electrical, mechanical, and industrial engineers can all make over $50 per hour.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT
The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in southeast Michigan compared to the US on average. Higher LQs typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQs will make filling open positions more difficult. For example, mechanical engineers and automotive engineers both have a LQ of 6.46 meaning that this type of worker is 6.46 times, or 546%, more concentrated in the region than in the rest of the nation. Employers should have a relatively easy time recruiting these types of engineers here. On the other hand, chemical engineers have a LQ of 0.56, which indicates that the concentration of chemical engineers in southeast Michigan is only 56% of the national average. Macomb employers looking to recruit chemical engineers will find it more difficult.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES
Macomb County employers seeking qualified Engineering & Design workers have many new regional graduates to choose from. Program completions data for 2014 show that many of the county’s most in-demand jobs in this cluster had high numbers of workers graduating from related certificate and degree programs. For example, 936 Southeast Michigan workers completed a degree in mechanical engineering in 2014, giving hope to the Macomb County employers who posted 327 online job ads for mechanical engineers in Q4 2015. Other high demand occupations, like electrical engineers and industrial engineers, had hundreds of new graduates in related programs in 2014. Most occupations in the Engineering & Design cluster require or prefer at least a bachelor’s degree. Due to the regional nature of the labor force in Southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16 counties in the WIN partnership.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
In order for Macomb County workers to get a high-demand, high-paying Engineering & Design job, most employers require a bachelor’s degree. Entry-level drafter positions, like mechanical drafters, and other in-demand jobs in the cluster, like environmental and industrial safety and health engineers, are obtainable with an associate’s degree. The continually growing demand in this occupational cluster may indicate that Macomb County employers are seeing a mismatch between the qualification of available candidates and their educational and training preferences. In order for Engineering employment to continue growing in Macomb, some up-skilling may be required.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2015, IT occupational employment was 5,742 in Macomb County. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS
* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Employer demand for software developers for applications continues to grow in Southeast Michigan, including Macomb County. The occupation was the most in-demand, again, during Q4 2015, with 444 online job ads posted. Despite the 14% decrease from Q3 2015’s 518 postings, demand for these workers is almost 3.5 times more than for the next most in-demand IT occupation. The 444 online job ads for software developers posted in Macomb between October and December account for 32% of the employer demand in the IT cluster, and have more than doubled since Q4 2014.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Employer demand for Information Technology workers grew in a big way during 2015, hitting a peak in online job ads during Q2. The 1,545 postings during Q2 2015 represent the highest level of IT employer demand recorded since WIN analysis began in Q1 2011. Postings have decreased slightly since Q2’s peak, with 1,427 in Q3, and a 4% decrease between Q3 and Q4’s 1,370 postings. This level of postings for Q4 is similar to the quarterly average for the year, at 1,379 postings. The huge demand seen for IT occupations in Macomb County during 2015 worked to push employment in the cluster up, but sustaining that growth depends on the supply of qualified workers. Demand for occupations in the Information Technology cluster represented 10% of total job postings in Macomb County during Q4 2015.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Employment in Macomb County’s IT cluster grew 2% from 2014 to 2015. 5,742 Macomb County workers were employed in IT occupations in 2015. Macomb County IT employment reached its lowest point during the recession in 2009, when 5,211 workers were employed in these occupations. The new numbers for 2015 match employment levels in pre-recession 2006. With the continued growth in employer demand seen in Southeast Michigan, employment will likely grow if worker education and training can keep up with job postings.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS WAGES
The Information Technology occupation cluster offers some of the highest wages in Southeast Michigan to Macomb County workers. Nearly all of the county’s top 15 in-demand occupations advertise over $20 per hour (10th percentile wages) to entrylevel workers. On par with the Engineering & Design occupations, IT jobs also offer upward wage growth such that an experienced applications software developer can potentially make $58 per hour. High paying positions like these will be filled by candidates with a bachelor’s degree and some experience.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT
The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in southeast Michigan compared to the US on average. Higher LQs typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQs will make filling open positions more difficult. For example in the IT cluster, systems software developers have a LQ of 1.32, indicating that the concentration of this type of worker is 1.32 times, or 32% higher than, the concentration across the remainder of the nation. The IT cluster’s top job, software developers for applications, is concentrated in the region at 90% of the national average (LQ = 0.90). Web developers in southeast Michigan are only concentrated at 72% of the national average (LQ = 0.72). Increased demand for IT occupations in the region will drive up employment in the future, bringing a competitive edge to the region’s IT businesses.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES
Many of Macomb County’s most in-demand Information Technology occupations will require a bachelor’s degree of candidates. Regional degree and certificate completions data for 2014 show that students are completing programs applicable to the in-demand IT jobs. In 2014, 977 Southeast Michigan students completed a post-secondary educational program that would typically qualify them for a job as a software developer for applications (444 Q4 job postings). Although completions data show that students are completing related certificate and degree programs, continued growth in employer demand for IT workers may indicate that graduates are not taking jobs in Southeast Michigan or that employers are dissatisfied with the education and training students are receiving from these programs. Continued analysis and research will help guide strategies targeted at increasing IT employment in the region. Due to the regional nature of the labor force in Southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16 counties in the WIN partnership.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
Thirteen of the top 15 IT occupations in Macomb County require at least a bachelor’s degree for an entry-level position. A post-secondary degree is preferred for occupations like software developers for applications and computer systems analysts. Employers seeking other IT workers may require some college or an associate’s degree for jobs like computer use support specialists or web developers.
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HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 28,956 employees in 2015 in Macomb County. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster.
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS
* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Like other Southeast Michigan counties, Macomb County’s most in-demand Health Care cluster occupation is registered nurses. RNs garnered 653 online job ads in Q4 2015, almost five times as many as were posted for the next in-demand occupations. This level of employer demand for RNs represents a 65% increase over total job postings during Q4 2014. Other top Health Care jobs posted during October through December were nursing assistants (131 postings) and medical assistants (125 postings).
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HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings in Macomb County’s Health Care occupational cluster grew dramatically during 2015. Employers in Macomb posted 2,041 online job ads for Health Care workers during Q3 2015, the highest level of employer demand seen in the cluster since analysis began in Q1 2011. Postings for Q4 2015 were slightly down, decreasing just 1% from Q3’s peak to 2,015 postings. Overall, employer demand grew 51% since the end of 2014. The high demand seen in the Health Care cluster throughout Southeast Michigan has the potential to push employment growth if employers have access to the qualified candidates they are looking for. Postings in the Health Care cluster represented 14% of total online job postings in Macomb County during Q4 2015.
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HEALTH CARE EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Health Care cluster employment grew nearly 2% from 2014 to 2015. Five hundred-seventy Macomb County workers gained employment in Health Care jobs during 2015, meaning that 28,956 worked in this cluster. Health Care employment did not decline like other clusters analyzed, and has been on an upward trend overall. The dramatic increase in employer demand seen in this cluster during 2015 did not translate into large gains in employment, but projections indicate that Health Care employment will continue to grow at its steady, yearly pace.
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HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS WAGES
Health Care cluster jobs that require advanced education and training offer Macomb County workers high wages. Trained workers like registered nurses, nurse practitioners, and license practical nurses can all earn a living wage over $15 an hour at the entry-level. Most Health Care occupations also offer wage growth opportunity; even where entry-level workers are not earning high wages, earnings rise with experience.
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HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT
The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in southeast Michigan compared to the US on average. Higher LQs typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQs will make filling open positions more difficult. For example, physicians and surgeons have a LQ of 1.49, meaning that doctors are 1.49 times, or 49% more, concentrated in southeast Michigan than across the rest of the nation, on average. On the other hand, licensed practical nurses (LQ = 0.71) and nurse practitioners (LQ = 0.76) are less concentrated here than the rest of the country, and Macomb County employers may struggle somewhat to recruit these workers as they are concentrated in the region at only 71% and 76% of the national averages.
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HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES
Most of Macomb County’s most in-demand Health Care occupations require at least some postsecondary education or training. Regional completions data show that in 2014, 4,201 students completed degree or certificate programs that would qualify them to work as registered nurses. Comparing job postings data to these completions data often point out weaknesses in the regional labor market. Macomb County workers posted 653 online job ads for RNs in Q4 2015, despite the 4,201 students that graduated programs for this occupation in 2014. This may be an indication that employers are dissatisfied with the training nursing students are receiving, or that Southeast Michigan nursing graduates are not taking nursing jobs here. Due to the regional nature of the labor force in Southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16 counties in the WIN partnership.
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HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
Nearly all of Macomb County’s top 15 in-demand Health Care jobs require at least a post-secondary certificate or an associate’s degree. Registered nurses are required to have an associate’s degree, though many hospitals prefer nurses with a 4-year degree. High paying Health Care careers like physical therapists, pharmacists, and physicians and surgeons require advanced degrees.
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2015, 91,741 individuals were employed in retail and hospitality related occupations in Macomb County.
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RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS
* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Retail salespersons consistently top the list of in-demand Retail & Hospitality jobs in Macomb County. During Q4 2015 the occupation garnered 521 online job postings, almost twice as many as the next most in-demand Retail & Hospitality job. Those 521 job ads are also a 30% increase over Q4 2014 numbers, when Macomb County employers posted 365 ads for retail workers. Over the course of 2015, employer demand for wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives (except technical and scientific products) grew 60%, from 120 postings in Q4 2015 to 296 in Q4 2015, bringing this occupation from fifth to second most in-demand in the cluster.
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RETAIL & HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings in the Retail & Hospitality cluster declined in Q4 from Q3 2015, following a typical business cycle. Macomb County employers posted 2,984 online job ads in the cluster during Q4, down 11% from the 3,366 postings accrued during Q3. Q3 2015 also represented a new peak in employer demand for Retail & Hospitality workers since analysis began in Q1 2011. Continued high demand for these workers has spurred the employment growth seen in the cluster since the end of the recession. Demand in the Retail & Hospitality cluster accounted for 21% of all online job ads posted in Macomb County during Q4 2015.
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RETAIL & HOSPITALITY EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Retail & Hospitality cluster employment in Macomb County grew during 2015, from 89,785 to 91,741 employees, a 2% increase. Employment in the cluster bottomed out at 81,598 during 2009, but has already recovered and surpassed a previous peak employment of 90,115 in 2005. Growing employer demand will continue this growth trend, and the increased demand for more skilled retail jobs like wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives means that Macomb County workers have more opportunities for high-paying Retail & Hospitality jobs.
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RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS WAGES
Retail & Hospitality cluster occupations offer Macomb County workers an array of earning categories, based on education and experience. Those occupations, like sales managers, that would require at least a bachelor’s degree, offer the highest wages. Entry-level (10th percentile wages) sales managers can make $28.89 per hour, or about $52.65 per hour at the median. Other Retail & Hospitality positions do not offer high wages to entry-level workers but have some room for upward wage growth with experience.
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RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT
The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in southeast Michigan compared to the US on average. Higher LQs typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQs will make filling open positions more difficult. For example, purchasing agents have a LQ of 1.61, meaning that this type of worker is 1.61 times, or 61% more, concentrated in southeast Michigan than throughout the rest of the nation, on average. Retail & Hospitality workers have a large presence in the region, with maids and housekeeping cleaners (LQ = 0.71) at 71% of the national average, the lowest LQ of the top 15 jobs.
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RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES
Because many Retail & Hospitality occupations do not require education or training beyond a high school diploma, considering regional graduation and program completions data for these workers may not accurately describe the Southeast Michigan labor market. As explored previously, sales managers are often expected to have a bachelor’s degree. Completions data show that 5,725 Southeast Michigan students completed a degree program relevant to a career as a sales manager during 2014. Note that many degrees can prepare a person for multiple jobs, so all completions data recorded does not indicate that those graduates will all seek that specific occupation. Due to the regional nature of the labor force in Southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16 counties in the WIN partnership.
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RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
As mentioned in the discussion on Retail & Hospitality cluster wages, those high-paying jobs will likely require a bachelor’s degree of candidates. Other occupations in this cluster are attainable without more than a high school diploma and still offer Macomb workers opportunities for wage growth.
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SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
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DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage, location quotient, completion, and education requirement data is shown for the 16 county region that is part of the WIN partnership. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm • This report uses $15 as a "living wage" estimate. Any job paying more than this is considered to pay at least a living wage. Below $15 is less than a living wage. This definition is based on a median household income in Michigan which is close to $50,000 per year. If we assume that most homes have two income earners and both earn at least $15 per hour, then that household's anual income would be at least $62,000 putting these jobs above the median.
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DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
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BOARD ORGANIZATIONS
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH