QUARTERLY REPORT HILLSDALE COUNTY Q3 2015
SUMMARY HILLSDALE Q3 2015 DEMAND OVERVIEW Online job ads in Hillsdale County increased 25.9% growing from 290 ads to 365 between Q2 and Q3 2015. Growth is welcomed after postings stagnated at 290 online ads for the first two quarters of 2015. The top jobs in Hillsdale County fluctuate each quarter due to its small population. New jobs added to the top ten in Q3 include: cost estimators, accountants, welders, and registered nurses. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers retained their spot at the top of Hillsdale County’s most in-demand occupations list during Q3 2015 with nearly no change in posting levels (51 postings in Q3 versus 55 in Q2). Employment in Hillsdale County fell 1.2% from Q2 to Q3 this year, with 241 fewer individuals working. The labor force also dropped by a slightly larger margin (1.3%) with 261 individuals leaving the labor force. Q3 2015 numbers are lower than Q3 2014, one year ago. Unless gains are made in Q4 2015, the labor market will remain at a plateau. Quarter four is often a time of decline in Hillsdale County and the labor market is unlikely to expand until 2016. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5%. A need for Health Care, Skilled Trade, and Retail & Hospitality workers led the county’s employer demand contributing 60% of total growth in postings. Demand for Engineers & Designers along with Agricultural workers remained flat with nearly no change between Q2 and Q3 2015. The clusters analyzed by WIN account for 52.3% of total online job postings in Hillsdale County. *This report includes top jobs and postings over time highlights for clusters that have made major shifts or movements in the past quarter. The data is updated each quarter based on the clusters with the most noteworthy changes. For complete top jobs lists, educational attainment, and wage information, please see the regional reports or contact WIN's Research Director Colby Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org.
TOP JOBS Q3 2015
ANALYSIS Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers retained their spot at the top of Hillsdale County’s most in-demand occupations list during Q3 2015 with nearly no change in posting levels (51 postings in Q3 versus 55 in Q2). Demand for physical therapists doubled from Q2 to Q3 this year growing from 11 to 22 postings. Registered nurses are the third most indemand job in Hillsdale Count with 14 postings, back on the top ten list in Q3 after dropping to number 20 in Q2 2015. New jobs added to the top ten in Q3 include: cost estimators, accountants, welders, and registered nurses. 2
HIGHLIGHTS HEALTH CARE POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS Postings for Health Care workers has been on an upswing since Q1 2014. With some quarter-toquarter fluctuation, the general trend has been positive with postings hitting a historic high with 71 postings, up nearly 350% since Q1 2014 and up 40.0% since Q2 2015. Postings in Health Care often have a strong influence in the overall county’s employer demand trends as they represent nearly one-fifth of all online job ads.
SKILLED TRADE & TECHNICIAN POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS Skilled Trade postings are more prevalent in Hillsdale County than in many other counties in the region representing 10.4% of total employer demand. Since the Q3 2013 historic peak of 70 online ads, postings have hovered close to 30 postings for two years. Postings increased 44% between Q2 and Q3 2015, growing from 25 to 36 postings. Still within the average range of 30 and maintaining employer demand.
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LABOR MARKET OVERVIEW EMPLOYMENT & LABOR FORCE
ANALYSIS Employment in Hillsdale County fell 1.2% from Q2 to Q3 this year, with 241 fewer individuals working. The labor force also dropped by a slightly larger margin (1.3%) with 261 individuals leaving the labor force. While this drop is not welcome, it does not negate the gains made over the past three quarters and both the labor force and employment were higher in Q3 2015 than in Q4 2014. On the other hand, the Q3 2015 numbers are lower than Q3 2014, one year ago. Unless gains are made in Q4 2015, the labor market will remain at a plateau. Quarter four is often a time of decline in Hillsdale County and the labor market is unlikely to expand until 2016. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5%.
TOTAL POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS Online job ads in Hillsdale County increased 25.9% growing from 290 ads to 365 between Q2 and Q3 2015. Growth is welcome after postings stagnated at 290 online ads for the first two quarters of 2015. Postings have hovered around 300 postings for several quarters and the latest increase hopefully signals coming job growth.
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POSTING TRENDS BY CLUSTER
ANALYSIS All but one cluster gained postings in Hillsdale County during Q3 2015. A need for Health Care, Skilled Trade, and Retail & Hospitality workers led the county’s employer demand contributing 60% of total growth in postings. Demand for Engineers & Designers along with Agricultural workers remained flat with nearly no change between Q2 and Q3 2015. The clusters analyzed by WIN account for 52.3% of total online job postings in Hillsdale County.
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TOP JOBS BY CLUSTER HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS
ANALYSIS Physical therapists again topped the list of in-demand jobs for Hillsdale County’s Health Care cluster during Q3 2015 with 22 postings. Postings doubled for this occupation growing from 11 postings in Q2. New to the top ten jobs in health care during Q3 2015 were dentists, home health aids, LPNs, surgeons, and pharmacists. Other notable trends between Q2 and Q3 2015 include: increasing demand for registered nurses with postings growing from 4 to 14 and physician assistants falling out of the top ten most in-demand.
SKILLED TRADE & TECHNICIAN TOP JOBS
ANALYSIS Postings for skilled trade workers increased with demand growing for many occupations. Most notably, demand for welders increased from two postings to eight between Q2 and Q3 2015, making welders the top job of the quarter. Supervisor positions remained at four postings, indicating continued employer needs. New to the top ten jobs were tool and die makers and inspectors. No longer in the top ten were machinists and metal and plastic workers.
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TOP JOBS BY CLUSTER RETAIL TOP JOBS
ANALYSIS Demand for retail salespersons increased between Q2 and Q3 2015 growing from 4 postings to 13 making this the top job in the cluster. Demand for retail supervisors and customer service representatives have remained steady but dropped in the ranks to make way for increased demand in other areas. Sales representatives for wholesale and manufacturing products (nontechnical) show ten postings in Q3, up from five in Q2 this year. New to the top ten include cooks, food servers, and telemarketers. Tour guides, food prep workers, and butchers are no long in the top ten indicating that the positions were filled.
IT TOP JOBS
ANALYSIS The top IT job in Hillsdale County was web developers with four postings in Q3 2015. This job was new to the employer demand list. Demand grew for information security analysts, up to three postings from one. Also new to the top ten were computer programmers, network and computer systems administrators, and computer user support specialists. No longer in demand were IT managers, and software developers.
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