WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK
QUARTERLY REPORT 路 REGION NINE 路 Q3 2015
CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture
Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources
GEOGRAPHY
Prosperity Region 9 includes 6 counties: Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, and Washtenaw. This report focuses on the region as a whole.
SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND JULY - SEPTEMBER 2015
The top in-demand jobs within Region 9 remain relatively unchanged from quarter to quarter, however, the occupations do shift in order depending on the point in the business cycle. Of the 20 top postings jobs during the third quarter, 18 had an increase in online ads between Q2 and Q3 2015. The previous top job, heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, saw a 30% reduction in postings between quarters (1,086 ads down to 759). Such a reduction in ads could signal that employers in the region are having more success in finding talent for their open positions. Registered nurses are the now the most in-demand job in Region 9 and is consistently among the top posting occupation. Four new occupations were added to the top jobs in Region 9: • Computer systems analysts, • Mechanical engineers, • Nursing assistants, and • Cashiers
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
Averaging the first three quarters of the year show that 2015 is on track to have the highest recorded employment since early 2008. While the annual average looks promising, both the labor force and employment dropped minimally (by less than one percent) between Q2 and Q3 2015. The labor force decreased by 4,030 individuals from 501,965 in Q2 to 497,935 in Q3 (-0.8%). Employment decreased by 4,190 workers from 478,885 in Q2 to 474,695 in Q3 (-0.9%). A decline in both the labor force and employment levels is off-trend for the area. Typically both increase during Q3, however, this year the peak occurred during Q2.Despite the slight decrease, both the labor force and employment remain well above recession levels. The region’s average unemployment rate during 2015, to date, is 4.6%, a 1.3 percentage point drop from 2014’s average rate of 5.9%. Since employment decreased faster than the labor force during Q3, unemployment did increase by 0.1 percentage points to 4.7%. While unemployment did increase, the region has one of the lowest rates in the state (5.5% statewide average rate for this period).
EMPLOYER DEMAND JULY - SEPTEMBER 2015
Total job postings in the region have grown for a third consecutive quarter. Online ads by local employers increased to 20,319 for Q3, an eight percent increase over Q2’s 18,817 postings. Ads per quarter remain high relative to previous years, and Q3 marked the highest number of postings for a quarter since online ads data began being collected, including the peak in Q3 2013 of 19,980 postings. All of the occupation clusters analyzed by WIN experienced gains in job postings this quarter. WIN’s occupation clusters contributed 91% of online ad growth in the region. Overall postings for Region 9 increased by 1,502 while WIN’s occupation clusters saw ads increase by 1,367. Job demand for Retail & Hospitality occupations grew the most (23.4%) between quarters. The Skilled Trades & Technicians cluster also had impressive gains once again and ads have increased by 76% since Q3 2014.
SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
REGION NINE DEMAND OVERVIEW
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 18,385 individuals in Region 9. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS
The top three most in-demand Skilled Trades & Technicians occupations remained the same between Q2 and Q3—production workers, first-line supervisors of production and operating workers, and line inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, weighers. Online ads for welders and CC machine operators nearly doubled in Q3, possibly indicating that Region 9 employers are having difficulty finding talent to fill these open positions. Meanwhile, postings for mechanical engineering technicians decreased from 26 in Q2 to just 8 in Q3, indicating that employers may have successfully filled open positions.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Online postings increased for a third consecutive quarter, contributing to the overall increase in job demand in Region 9 during Q3. Online ads for Skilled Trade & Technician occupations increased to 860 in Q3 2015, a 12% increase over the 766 ads during Q2. Employer demand during Q3 was the second highest accorded falling just short of the historic high of 892 ads during Q3 2011. Postings in the Skilled Trades cluster accounted for 4.2% of all job ads in Region 9 during Q3 2015.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS WAGES & EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 10,508 employed individuals in Region 9. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS
The top six occupations for the Engineers & Designer cluster remained the same between Q3 and Q2 2015. Mechanical engineers once again topped the list despite postings decreasing from 192 in Q2 to 188 in Q3. Electrical and industrial engineers saw postings increase between quarters but are still not as in-demand as mechanical engineers.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings in the Engineer & Design cluster increased for a third consecutive quarter in Region 9. Online ads increased from 864 in Q2 to 914 in Q3, a 5.8% jump. Q3 2015 marked another record quarter of growth for Region 9 postings for this cluster. This sustained high level of postings between Q2 and Q3 may signal increased employer demand, and subsequent employment growth, for engineers in the coming quarters. Engineering & Design postings represent 4.5% of all job ads in Region 9 during Q3 2015.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP 15 JOBS WAGES & EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 11,773 in Region 9. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications.
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS
The top in-demand job for the IT cluster in Region 9 was, once again, software developers with 761 postings in Q3 2015. This occupation has been at the top of IT postings for several years and outpaces the next most in-demand occupation (computer systems analysts) by a ratio of more than 3:1. Postings for computer systems analysts increased by 42% from 165 in Q2 to 235 in Q3. Other top in-demand jobs included computer user support specialists (174 online ads) and business intelligence analysts (166 online ads).
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Online postings for IT occupations in Region 9 bounced back in Q3 after slightly declining in Q2. The 2,312 ads posted in Q3 2015 were a 10% increase of Q2’s 2,098 postings and marked a record for Region 9 since data began being collected. Employer demand for IT occupations has increased by 68% since Q3 2014 and sustained high levels of postings indicates future growth in employment in Region 9. IT postings represented 11.4% of all job ads in Region 9 during Q3 2015.
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS WAGES & EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Region 9’s largest with, 48,914 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most indemand job in this cluster.
HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS
Registered nurses once again topped the list as the most in-demand occupation for the Health Care cluster in Region 9. Employer demand for RNs is over four times greater than the next most in-demand occupation, nursing assistants. The 805 online ads for RNs during Q3 was a 3.7% increase over the 776 ads during Q2. Other top jobs in Health Care include physical therapists (153 ads) and nurse practitioners (130 ads).
HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
The third quarter of 2015 marked a new record in online postings for Health Care occupations in Region 9 with 2,840 ads. This was a 6.2% increase over the 2,675 online ads posted in Q2. Continued posting growth could signal increasing employer demand and consequently increasing employment within Health Care occupations. Health care occupation online postings represent 14% all online job postings in Region 9.
HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS WAGES & EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 110,843 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in Region 9.
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS
The top posting jobs in Retail & Hospitality remain consistent quarter to quarter. Retail salespersons once again topped the list with 731 online ads, marking a 42% increase over the 518 ads during Q2. Demand for this occupation often outpaces demand for the next highest posting jobs, however, this does not necessarily mean substantial long-term employment growth; consistent high posting levels for retail salespersons is usually attributed to high turnover. Ads for this occupation may have increased during Q3 as employers prepare for the busy holiday retail season. Employer demand also increased for first-line supervisors of retail and food prep workers, indicating that there is some upward mobility for entry-level R&H workers.
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Online ads for Retail & Hospitality occupations experienced a jump during Q3 after sluggish growth between Q1 and Q2 2015. The 4,439 ads during Q3 marked a 23.4% growth over the 3,598 ads in Q2. Postings had been generally declining after a peak of 4,891 online ads in Q3 2013. Continued growth in Retail & Hospitality is often linked with the health in other sectors of the economy, so a continued high level of postings is a positive sign for Region 9. Retail & Hospitality occupation online postings accounted for 21.8% of all online job postings in Region 9.
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS WAGES & EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
AGRICULTURE WIN’s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2014, 30,424 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Region 9.
AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS
Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products was, by far, the most in-demand job in the agriculture occupational cluster for Region 9 in Q3 2015, with 102 postings. These workers are salespeople but have technical expertise and extensive on-the-job training. Other top jobs included occupational health and safety specialists (24 ads), landscaping and groundskeeping workers (22 ads) and environmental engineers (22 ads).
AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings for Agriculture occupations remained relatively stagnant, increasing to just 382 online ads in Q3 compared to 379 in Q2. Postings in this cluster are typically highest in either Q2 or Q3 due to the seasonality of Agriculture occupations. Demand is almost always lowest in Q4 so a drop-off in ads will be expected next quarter. Agriculture occupations are the smallest cluster in Region 9, accounting for just 1.9% of all online job ads in the region.
AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS WAGES & EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
With 20,319 online ads, Q3 2015 marked an all-time high in employer demand for Region 9. Postings increased by 8% between Q2 and Q3 and have increased for three consecutive quarters. 91% of the growth in total online job postings during Q3 2015 can be attributed to WIN-analyzed clusters. The major drivers of increased employer demand in the region were Retail & Hospitality and IT with 841 and 214 additional ads since Q2, respectively. Demand for registered nurses outpaced all other jobs with 805 postings in Q3 2015, an increase of 3.7% over the 776 ads in Q2. Postings for truck drivers decreased by 30% from 1,086 in Q2 to 759 in Q3, causing this occupation to fall from first to third most in-demand. Eighteen of the top twenty occupations from Q2 experienced an increase in employer demand in Q3. Four new occupations joined the top twenty most in-demand jobs: computer systems analysts, mechanical engineers, nursing assistants, and cashiers. 2015 is on pace to be the highest recorded employment since early 2008 for Region 9. Both the labor force and employment dropped by less than one percent between Q2 and Q3 2015. The labor force decreased by 4,030 individuals from 501,965 in Q2 to 497,935 in Q3 (-0.8%). Employment decreased by 4,190 workers from 478,885 in Q2 to 474,695 in Q3 (-0.9%). The region’s average unemployment rate during 2015, to date, is 4.6%, a 1.3 percentage point drop from 2014’s average rate of 5.9%. Since employment decreased faster than the labor force during Q3, unemployment did increase by 0.1% to 4.7%. While unemployment did increase, the region has one of the lowest rates in the state (5.5% statewide average rate for this period).
SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH