WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK
QUARTERLY REPORT 路 RPI REGION SIX 路 Q1 2015
CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture Transportation, Distribution, & Logistics
Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources
GEOGRAPHY
Prosperity Region 6 includes 7 counties: Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, Saint Clair, Shiawassee, and Tuscola.
SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND JANUARY - MARCH 2015
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers and retail salespersons remain the top two in-demand occupations within Region 6 for the second consecutive quarter despite both seeing a decline in postings compared to Q4 2014. Demand for truck drivers greatly outpaced all other occupations with 473 online job ads, but experienced a 25% decrease from Q4 2014’s 627 postings. Similarly, second place retail salespersons saw postings decrease from 387 in Q4 2014 to 296 in Q1 2015, a 24% decline. On the other hand, registered nurses saw postings increase from 181 in Q4 2014 to 271 in Q1 2015, a nearly 50% jump. This surge in postings saw registered nurses increase from the seventh most in-demand occupation last quarter to third in Q1 2015.
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
Employment continued to grow while the labor force declined slightly in 2014, following the general annual trend since 2009. The annual average employment was 332,537 individuals with an available labor force of 362,568. Unlike past years, however, employment peaked in November with 338,045 individuals in jobs. Typically, employment is highest in the region during May and June, most likely due to annual harvests and seasonal tourism. Q1 levels tend to drop relative to Q4 as holiday employment fades and WIN projects that early 2015 data, once released, will follow that trend. While employment continues to grow each year the labor force has been relatively stable since 2011. Unless employers begin to hire more workers more often, it is unlikely that labor force participation will increase substantially in the near future. Region 6’s unemployment rate was an average of 8.2% during 2014, a 2.1 percentage point drop from 2013’s average of 10.3%. Since employment has grown faster than the labor force has declined the drop in unemployment is mostly due to job gains.
EMPLOYER DEMAND JANUARY - MARCH 2015
After two consecutive quarters of growth in online postings, Q1 2015 saw a 9.2% decrease in ads, from 7,561 in Q4 2014 to 6,862 in Q1 2015. Postings have remained high relative to previous years after an initial spike in Q3 2013 (9,708 postings). Since then, postings levels have fluctuated around 7,000 over the last six quarters. Postings tend to fall from Q1 to Q2 and that may occur in the coming quarter. While postings are likely to drop in the coming quarter, they are expected to remain high as employment levels continue to grow in the region. Of the six occupational clusters analyzed by WIN in Region 6, the three largest (health care, retail & hospitality, transportation, distribution & logistics) experienced a decrease in postings while the three smaller clusters (skilled trades, engineers and agriculture) saw an increase in postings. Retail & hospitality saw the greatest decline in postings; shifting from 1,994 in Q4 2014 to 1,750 in Q1 2015, a decrease of 12.2%. Meanwhile, agriculture postings increased the most from 121 in Q4 2014 to 189 in Q1 2015, a 56% jump.
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
REGION SIX DEMAND OVERVIEW
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 12,039 individuals in Region 6. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing. The most in-demand skilled trade occupation in Region 6 was first-line supervisors of production & operating workers during Q1 2015 (52 online postings). Close behind in second were CNC machinists for metal and plastic with 51 postings, up from 38 in Q4 2014. The increase in employer postings for this occupation signals that employers are having a difficult time finding and/or retaining talent to fill their open positions. Similarly, supervisors remain the top posting occupation for two consecutive quarters meaning that there are high-paying management positions available in the skilled trades.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
There was a marginal increase in postings between Q4 2014 and Q1 2015 for skilled trades in Region 6, shifting up from 297 to 309. Over the last five quarters postings for skilled trade occupations have only fluctuated by 10% in the region. This stability and high level of share in postings—in comparison to the national average—indicates there are plenty of job openings.
Region 6 has a competitive edge in the skilled trades with nearly every top in-demand job at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. There are five skilled trade occupations with location quotients (LQ) equal to or greater than 2.5, meaning that the concentration of these workers in Region 6 is at least 150% higher than the rest of the U.S. on average.
Skilled trade jobs also allow workers to earn a living wage with the median hourly rate above $15 for most in-demand jobs. Starting wages (10th percentile) are not as competitive for every job but all positions offer upward wage growth. Tool and die makers has the highest LQ in Region 6 (6.83 or 583% higher than the national average) and the second highest median hourly earnings ($27.03) for in-demand skilled trade jobs.
Many skilled trade jobs do not require a degree but instead a special certification and on-the-job training. Technician positions require an associate’s degree in engineering. While there are grads in the area with related training to the top skilled trade jobs, they are not enough to fill all open positions as employers continue to increase worker demand.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 3,185 employed individuals in Region 6. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly. Mechanical engineers overtake the top spot 2015 with a surge in postings from 37 in Q4 2014 to 59 in Q1 2015. This sudden increase could indicate that there are many new job openings for this occupation in the region. On the other hand, postings for industrial engineers—the previous top spot—decreased from 48 in Q4 2014 to 29 in Q1 2015. This could be a signal that employers are successfully finding talent to fulfill open industrial engineer positions. Postings for civil, electrical and manufacturing engineers remain high between quarters.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings for engineers and designers increased for the second consecutive quarter, up to 202 from 182 in Q4 2014. This is the highest number of postings for a Q1 since 2011. Postings generally increase between Q4 and Q1 and then drop slightly in Q2. While this is expected for this year as well, the region has not experienced substantial growth or decline in postings over the past few years. Just 2.7% of total postings in Region 6 are in engineering and design.
While not as strong of a presence as the rest of Southeast Michigan, Region 6 has high concentrations of five engineer and design occupations. The top job, commercial and industrial designers, with a location quotient of 1.82 has an 82% higher concentration of these workers than in the rest of the U.S. on average. Other notable occupations include mechanical and industrial engineers with LQ’s of 1.72 and 1.78 (72% and 78% higher concentration than the U.S. average), respectively. These two occupations also are the most indemand according to online postings this quarter.
Wages for engineers and designers are extremely competitive. Starting wages (10th percentile) are above $20 per hour for most top jobs in this cluster and nearly all are above $15 per hour. The high wages follow a need for higher education as most of the top jobs require a Bachelor’s degree.
Despite having the second-highest LQ and job postings, there were only fifteen graduations related to industrial engineering in 2013. This ranks this occupation in 8th out of 15th for graduation rates for top in-demand jobs and could answer why this industrial engineers are continually near the top in postings every quarter. Many employers likely recruit engineers from schools located outside of Region 6.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Region 6's largest with, 31,815 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most indemand job in this cluster.
Like many other clusters, the top job is consistent from quarter to quarter. Postings for registered nurses once again tops the list with 271 postings, up from 181 in Q4 2014. This occupation has been the cluster’s top-demanded job for several years running. Demand for registered nurses is extremely high, especially for those with specialties such as surgery, anesthesia, or labor and delivery. Other top postings include physical therapists (91 postings down from 129 in Q4 2014) and nursing assistants (79 postings up from 75 in Q4 2014).
HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS
HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings for health care occupations have increased slightly to 1,096 this quarter, up from 999 in Q4 2014. Postings seem to have stabilized around 1,000 per quarter after fluctuating wildly between Q4 2012 and Q2 2014. Postings may have stabilized due to mergers within the health system, and are now higher than they were in 2011 . Health care occupation online postings represent 14.6% of all online job ads in the region.
Health care is a sector that grows in concentration and demand as the local population increases and ages (demanding more services) and as universities and hospitals diversify and increase their reputation for destination care. Both of these are occurring in Michigan with demand for health services increase (as the population ages) and as universities and other hospitals become places of choice for others seeking care from outside the region.
The higher concentration of health care workers is evident in their location quotients with 12 of the 15 most in-demand occupations having higher concentrations in Region 6 than the U.S. on average. While no health occupation reaches the competitive levels of some skilled trade positions, the concentration of medical assistants, pharmacists, laboratory workers and others is higher than the national average. Pharmacy technicians, for example, have an LQ of 1.78 meaning the concentration of those workers is 78% higher in Region 6 than in the nation, on average.
Many health care jobs are a pathway into the middle-class and others, those that require graduate-level training, boast very high salaries. Many workers see the high wage potential are enrolling in health programs, however, there is still a shortage of many health care workers as evidenced by high posting levels and employment growth.
HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 77,414 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in Region 6. Similar to how retail & hospitality postings decreased overall, postings for the most indemand occupation, retail salespersons, dropped this quarter. Online job ads for this occupation dropped to 296, down from 383 in Q4 2014. The drop is likely due to a decline in hiring after the holiday season. The next most in-demand job, first-line supervisors of retail sales workers was also second to retail salespersons last quarter. Postings for this occupation barely moved, up to 207 this quarter compared to 204 in Q4 2014. The consistency of postings across quarters indicates that employers are continually searching for workers in these higher-wage management positions.
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Since peaking in Q3 2013 (2,920 postings), online job ads for retail and hospitality occupations have gradually declined over the last six quarters. This quarter is no different, as postings dropped from 1,994 in Q4 2014 to 1,750 in Q1 2015, a 12% decline. Despite the lack of growth, retail & hospitality remains a significant part of Region 6’s economy as the cluster accounts for 25.5% of all postings.
Like other services, health care being one, demand for retail & hospitality occupations increases as the population grows and has more money to spend in the economy. Wages in the region have not been growing rapidly but compared to the recession low, wages are up. This is one explanation for the location quotients for many retail and customer service position being larger than 1, the national average. Food preparation and serving workers has the highest LQ in Region 6 with 1.5, or 50% greater than the national average.
Retail & hospitality jobs are not often sought after due to low wages. But these jobs are often the first step for workers into the labor force where they can learn valuable skills that translate to other occupations that earn a higher wage.
Most retail & hospital jobs do not require higher education but many require specialized onthe-job training. Interestingly, there were 803 graduates in the region with degrees related to being a sales manager, however, there were only 41 postings for this occupation in Q1 2015 and has a lower LQ than the national average (0.94).
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS Transportation, distribution, and logistics (TDL) workers help move materials in an efficient manner whether it is from one company to another or directly to a consumer. Logistics workers range from materials movers to logisitics analysts, coordinating and analyzing material and goods movement. With I-69 cooridor running straight through Region 7, TDL jobs are important to watch. In 2014, 30,083 workers were employer in the region in TDL occupations. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers have dominated Transportation, Distribution and Logistics (TDL) postings in Region 6 each quarter in recent years and this quarter is no different. Online job ads for this occupation reached 473 in Q1 2015, down from 627 in Q4 2014. Nonetheless, this is still the second-highest number of postings for truck drivers since online posting data began being collected in 2011 . The constant high number of postings for this occupation strongly indicates that employers are having tremendous difficulty finding individuals to fill their open positions.
TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS TOP JOBS
TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings for TDL occupations declined from 839 in Q4 2014 to 655 in Q1 2015, a 22% drop. The number of TDL postings is heavily dependent on postings for truck drivers. For example, truck driver postings accounted for 75% of all postings in Q4 2014. Since postings for this occupation reached a record high last quarter, so too did TDL postings. Similarly, the decrease of postings for truck drivers by 154 this quarter accounted for nearly 84% of the total drop in TDL postings.
Unlike other clusters analyzed by WIN, many of the most in-demand TDL occupations in Region 6 are more likely to have a location quotient (LQ) less than the national average. Bucking this trend, Industrial truck and tractor operators have the highest LQ in the region (1.27) or 27% higher concentration of these workers than the rest of the nation, on average.
While starting wages (10th percentile) for TDL occupations are low, the majority of these occupations have median hourly earnings greater than $15 offering wage growth with experience.
Many of these occupations do not require education beyond high school but rather shortterm on-the-job training once they have begun working. While there were 762 postings for truck drivers in 2013, there were only 80 graduates in Region 6. This disparity most likely increased in 2014 where there were 1,377 postings (2014 graduation numbers have not yet been released).
TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
AGRICULTURE WIN’s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2014, 12,759 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Region 6. Sales representatives for technical and scientific products not only maintained the top posting occupation spot for agriculture in Region 6 this quarter but also saw a surge in job ads. Postings increased from 27 in Q4 2014 up to 66 in Q1 2015, indicating that many new positions are opening and/or employers are having a difficult time finding talent. The next most in-demand occupation was landscaping and groundskeeping workers with 32 postings. WIN expects this occupation to have even greater growth in postings next quarter as landscaping companies ramp up staff for the spring, summer and fall.
AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS
AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Posting trends are difficult to discern because of no recognizable patterns, or business cycles. The number of postings fluctuate often between quarters. Since Region 6 has experienced high growth over the last two quarters, it is likely that postings begin to decline or at least slow in growth over the next two quarters. Postings for agriculture occupations account for only 2.8% of all online job ads in the region.
Nearly half of the most in-demand agriculture occupations have location quotients greater than 1.0, indicating that there is a higher concentration of those workers in Region 6 compared to the rest of the nation on average. Animal trainers have the highest LQ (1.44) indicating that there is a 44% higher concentration than the national average . The occupations below the national average often have LQ’s substantially lower than 1.0, meaning that there is an extremely lower concentration of those workers compared to the nation on average. For example, environmental scientists have an LQ of just 0.18, indicating that Region 6 has just 18% of these workers compared to the national average.
Most of the entry-level wages (10th percentile) are below $15 per hour, however, nearly half of these occupations offer wages above that level with median hourly earnings. Most agriculture occupations require a high school degree or less along with short to moderate-term on-the-job training to learn the necessary skills for these occupations. The higher wage occupations in this cluster often require a degree beyond high school.
AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
2014 was a time of continued job growth, with regional employment rising by 4,733 individuals (1.4% growth over 2013 annual average). This is the third consecutive year with employment growth. With 332,537 individuals employed, Region 6 continues to increase employment levels past levels previously seen before the recession in mid-late 2008. The labor force, on the other hand, dropped by 0.6% between 2013 and 2014, losing 2,338 workers. This is not uncommon as the labor force tends to peak in mid-summer and then drop steadily until spring the following year. While the labor force has experienced modest decline it is generally stable with typical peaks and troughs throughout the business cycle. While the regional labor force has avoided the steep declines that occurring during the recession it has yet to see substantial gains. Region 6’s unemployment rate was an average of 8.2% during 2014, a 2.1 percentage point drop from 2013’s average of 10.3%. Since employment has grown faster than the labor force has declined the drop in unemployment is mostly due to job gains. The region’s average unemployment rate was 6.4% for Q4 2014, its lowest for a quarter on record. After two consecutive quarters of growth in online postings, Q1 2015 saw a 9.2% decrease in ads, from 7,561 in Q4 2014 to 6,862 in Q1 2015. Postings have remained high relative to previous years after an initial spike in Q3 2013 (9,708 postings). Since then, postings levels have fluctuated around 7,000 over the last six quarters. Of the six occupational clusters analyzed by WIN in Region 6, the three largest (health care, retail & hospitality, transportation, distribution & logistics) experienced a decrease in postings while the three smaller clusters (skilled trades, engineers and agriculture) saw an increase in postings. Retail & hospitality saw the greatest decline in postings; shifting from 1,994 in Q4 2014 to 1,750 in Q1 2015, a decrease of 12.2%. Despite the lack of growth, retail & hospitality remains the largest cluster of Region 6’s economy as it accounts for 25.5% of all postings. Of total online job postings in Region 6, 60% are from one of the six target occupation groups.
SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH