WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK
QUARTERLY REPORT 路 RPI REGION SIX 路 Q3 2015
CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture Transportation, Distribution, & Logistics
Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources
GEOGRAPHY
Prosperity Region 6 includes 7 counties: Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, Saint Clair, Shiawassee, and Tuscola.
SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND JULY - SEPTEMBER 2015
Heavy and tractor-trailer trucker drivers are the most in-demand occupation for Region 6 for the third quarter in a row. This occupation maintained its top spot despite postings falling from 706 in Q2 2015 to 470 this past quarter. Retail salespersons (440 online job postings) edged out registered nurses (369 postings) for the second in-demand ranking this past quarter. These three occupations regularly top the list for Region 6, quarter after quarter. The rest of the Region’s top jobs are dominated by more retail & hospitality and healthcare occupations—13 of the top twenty occupations were from these two occupation clusters. New occupations to the top twenty included: • Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses • Production workers • Human resource specialists • Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks • Cashiers • Combined food preparation and serving workers Seventeen of the top twenty occupations saw postings increase between Q2 and Q3 2015.
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
Participation in the labor force and employment level remained fairly stagnant for Region 6, with negligible changes between Q2 and Q3 2015. The labor force participation level for the 7-county region decline by 0.4% and employment decreased 0.5%, or by 1,677 jobs between quarters. Because the decrease in labor force participation level is small, the Q3 numbers (392,178) are not far off from the recent peak of 394,024 individuals in Q3 2014. 367,392 individuals were employed in Region 6 during Q3. The small shifts in employment and labor force levels this quarter meant that the unemployment rate stayed stagnant compared to Q2’s rate (6.3%) that had dropped from 7.3% in Q1 2015. Since the beginning of 2015, however, both the labor force and employment levels have grown, indicating that more Region 6 workers are seeking employment and gaining jobs.
EMPLOYER DEMAND JULY - SEPTEMBER 2015
Online job postings were up 8.2% between Q2 and Q3 2015, with Region 6 employers posting 8,240 ads between July and September. Postings for this region have largely hovered around the 7,000 mark for the past seven quarters but this level of postings is approaching the highest (9,982 postings in Q3 2013) seen in Region 6 since analysis began in Q1 2011. Of the six occupational clusters analyzed by WIN, Skilled Trades & Technicians and Retail & Hospitality saw dramatic increases in employer demand between Q2 2015 and Q3. Online job postings for Skilled Trades occupations increased 17.0% between quarters, and ads for Retail jobs increased 36.1%. The Transportation, Distribution, & Logistics experienced the largest decrease in employer demand between quarters, down 17.5% from 895 to 738 online job ads. Other WIN occupational clusters also saw decreased demand (Engineers & Designers and Agriculture) or remained stagnant (Health Care).
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
REGION SIX DEMAND OVERVIEW
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 12,039 individuals in Region 6. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS
Region 6 employers posted 80 online job ads for production workers from July to September, making this occupation the most in-demand for the Skilled Trades & Technicians cluster. Employer demand for production workers continues to increase in Region 6, from 35 postings in Q1, 68 in Q2, and 80 in Q3 2015. First-line supervisors rank as the second most in-demand in this cluster again. That occupation has ranked high on Region 6’s top Skilled Trades jobs list for several quarters, indicating that employers may be struggling to hire for these managerial roles.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings in the Skilled Trades increased 17.0%, from 289 to 338, between Q2 and Q3 2015. Region 6 employer demand in this occupational cluster has averaged just above 300 since the beginning of 2014, representing a leveling off of postings. Posting levels tended to be much more volatile when WIN analysis began in 2011; postings peaked in Q2 2012 and in Q3 2013 at 428.
TOP 15 JOBS WAGES & EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 3,185 employed individuals in Region 6. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS
Electrical engineers are Region 6’s most in-demand Engineering & Design occupation for Q3 2015, with 55 online job postings. Postings for industrial engineers decreased between quarters but remain at the top of the list, in the number 2 spot with 36 ads. Manufacturing engineers and mechanical engineers, following their Q2 drop, are also still in high demand in the region.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings in the Engineering & Design cluster decreased 11.2% from Q2 to Q3 2015. Quarterly postings for this cluster in 2015 to-date have averaged just above 200, and postings since the beginning of 2014 have averaged at 186. The 199 postings by Region 6 between July and September are consistent with the demand for Engineers & Designers observed; employer demand for these occupations is fairly consistent and employers may be struggling to find qualified candidates.
TOP 15 JOBS WAGES & EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Region 6's largest with, 31,815 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most indemand job in this cluster.
HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS
Consistent with demand statewide, registered nurses are the most in-demand Health Care cluster occupation for Region 6. Registered nurses have topped the list for several years and demand continues to grow; postings are up to 369 during Q3 over the 323 online ads posted in Q2 2015. Demand for RNs outpaces demand for the next in-demand occupation by 3 times. Region 6 employers posted 103 online job ads for nursing assistants during Q3, and 85 for licensed practical and vocational nurses.
HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Online postings in the Health Care cluster remained stagnant between Q2 (1,319 postings) and Q3 (1,321 postings) after two consecutive quarters of substantial growth. Despite the leveling off this quarter, employer demand in this cluster is approaching Q3 2013’s peak of 1,414 online job ads. Region 6 employers will likely meet that peak level of demand in the Health Care cluster as they continue to post for hard to fill positions like registered nurses.
TOP 15 JOBS WAGES & EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 77,414 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in Region 6.
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS
Postings for retail salespersons have increased during Q3 2015 to 440, after decreasing for several quarters to 253 in Q2. Other top in-demand Retail & Hospitality jobs for Region 6 are wholesale & manufacturing sales representatives (314 online ads) and first-line supervisors of retail sales workers (312 online ads). Both of these occupations are some of the higher-wage Retail jobs available to Region 6 workers and the continued growth in demand indicates that employers are continually searching for candidates to fill such advanced and managerial roles.
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Region 6’s Retail & Hospitality occupational cluster saw the largest increase of employer demand of the WIN-analyzed clusters during Q3 2015. Online job ads for these occupations increase 36.1%, from 1,657 to 2,256. This pattern follows the typical business cycle seen for Region 6’s Retail cluster; employer demand is usually high during Q3, as retailers are likely gearing up before the holiday season.
TOP 15 JOBS WAGES & EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS Transportation, distribution, and logistics (TDL) workers help move materials in an efficient manner whether it is from one company to another or directly to a consumer. Logistics workers range from materials movers to logisitics analysts, coordinating and analyzing material and goods movement. With I-69 cooridor running straight through Region 7, TDL jobs are important to watch. In 2014, 30,083 workers were employer in the region in TDL occupations.
TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS TOP JOBS
Once again, heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers are the most in-demand occupation for Region 6’s Transportation, Distribution, & Logistics cluster. Postings for this occupation actually dropped from Q2 (706 online job ads) but demand still significantly outpaces the next most in-demand TDL job, laborers and freight, stock, and material movers. Postings are low for other TDL jobs, but the continually high demand for truck drivers indicates that Region 6 employers are having a difficult time recruiting qualified drivers, much like across the rest of the state and country.
TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Transportation, Distribution, & Logistics postings are down 17.5% in Q3 2015, dropping from 895 postings during Q2 to 738 postings. Overall postings trends, however, indicate that Region 6 employers are looking to hire in more TDL occupations (note the upward trend since the beginning of WIN analysis in Q1 2011). TDL will become an increasingly more important occupational cluster to the Region 6 and Southeast Michigan economy as the area’s manufacturing industries continue to grow.
TOP 15 JOBS WAGES & EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
AGRICULTURE WIN’s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2014, 12,759 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Region 6.
AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS
Sales representatives for technical and scientific products hold their spot at the top of Region 6’s most in-demand Agriculture occupations again during Q3 2015. Even though postings for this occupation have been falling the past few quarters, Region 6 employers are still seeking knowledgeable workers for these well paid roles. Recreation workers (14 postings) and landscaping and groundskeeping workers (12 postings) were the next most in-demand Agriculture jobs this past quarter.
AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings for the Agriculture decreased 8.9% between Q2 and Q3 2015. This slight decrease is fairly consistent with the cycle of postings observed in Region 6’s Agriculture cluster since analysis began in Q1 2011. Based on past trends, postings are expected to further decrease during Q4, usually marking the lowest points on the cycle with the end of the harvest and recreation seasons.
TOP 15 JOBS WAGES & EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
Both the labor force and employment levels in Region 6 stayed stagnant between Q2 and Q3 2015, registering negligible decreases between quarters. This meant that the unemployment rate for Region 6’s 7-county area also remained at 6.3% between quarters. Labor force and employment have both grown in Region 6 since the beginning of the year, however, indicating that the drop in the unemployment rate, from 7.3% to 6.3%, between Q1 and Q2 2015 can partly be attributed to more Region 6 workers obtaining jobs. Online job postings for the region increased 8.2% between quarters. Region 6 employer demand has remained fairly consistent, fluctuating around the 7,000 postings level since the beginning of 2014, but postings have increased each quarter since the beginning of 2015. Only two of the WIN-analyzed occupational cluster experienced substantial growth in postings during Q3 2015. Online job ads for occupations in the Skilled Trades & Technicians cluster increased 17.0% and ads in the Retail & Hospitality cluster increased 36.1%. TDL occupations saw the largest decrease in online job postings this quarter (17.5%), even though postings for heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers remain very high.
SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH